Phase 4 hardening: status CLI, lock file, backup job, hash enforce, pooling, real bias

Sei interventi mirati sui rischi operativi rilevati nell'audit
post-Fase 4. 317 test pass, mypy strict pulito, ruff clean.

1. status CLI: legge SQLite reale e mostra kill_switch, posizioni
   aperte, environment, config_version, last_health_check, started_at.
   Sostituisce il placeholder "phase 0 skeleton".

2. Lock file single-instance: runtime/lockfile.py acquisisce
   data/.lockfile via fcntl.flock al boot di run_forever; un secondo
   container fallisce subito con LockError.

3. Backup orario nello scheduler: nuovo job APScheduler 0 * * * *
   chiama scripts.backup.backup_database + prune_backups.

4. config_hash enforce su start: il CLI start verifica l'integrità
   del file (enforce_hash=True). Mismatch → exit 1 prima di toccare
   stato. dry-run resta enforce_hash=False per debug.

5. Connection pooling MCP: RuntimeContext espone un httpx.AsyncClient
   long-lived condiviso da tutti i wrapper (limits 20/10
   connections/keepalive). aclose() chiamato in run_forever finale.

6. Bias direzionale reale: deribit.historical_close +
   deribit.adx_14 popolano TrendContext con spot a 30 giorni e
   ADX(14) effettivi. Sblocca bull_put e bear_call. Quando i dati
   storici mancano l'engine emette alert MEDIUM e cade su no_entry
   in modo deterministico.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/cerbero_bite/runtime/entry_cycle.py

@@ -84,6 +84,8 @@ class EntryCycleResult:
 @dataclass(frozen=True)
 class _MarketSnapshot:
     spot_eth_usd: Decimal
+    spot_eth_30d_ago: Decimal | None
+    adx_14: Decimal | None
     dvol: Decimal
     funding_perp: Decimal
     funding_cross: Decimal
@@ -102,7 +104,28 @@ async def _gather_snapshot(
     cfg: StrategyConfig,
     now: datetime,
 ) -> _MarketSnapshot:
+    window_days = cfg.entry.trend_window_days
+    historical_start = now - timedelta(days=window_days + 1)
+    historical_end = now - timedelta(days=window_days - 1)
+    adx_start = now - timedelta(days=10)
+
     spot_t: asyncio.Task[Decimal] = asyncio.create_task(deribit.index_price_eth())
+    spot_past_t: asyncio.Task[Decimal | None] = asyncio.create_task(
+        deribit.historical_close(
+            instrument="ETH-PERPETUAL",
+            start=historical_start,
+            end=historical_end,
+            resolution="1D",
+        )
+    )
+    adx_t: asyncio.Task[Decimal | None] = asyncio.create_task(
+        deribit.adx_14(
+            instrument="ETH-PERPETUAL",
+            start=adx_start,
+            end=now,
+            resolution="1h",
+        )
+    )
     dvol_t: asyncio.Task[Decimal] = asyncio.create_task(
         deribit.latest_dvol(currency="ETH", now=now)
     )
@@ -128,6 +151,8 @@ async def _gather_snapshot(
 
     await asyncio.gather(
         spot_t,
+        spot_past_t,
+        adx_t,
         dvol_t,
         funding_perp_t,
         funding_cross_t,
@@ -137,6 +162,8 @@ async def _gather_snapshot(
     )
     return _MarketSnapshot(
         spot_eth_usd=spot_t.result(),
+        spot_eth_30d_ago=spot_past_t.result(),
+        adx_14=adx_t.result(),
         dvol=dvol_t.result(),
         funding_perp=funding_perp_t.result(),
         funding_cross=funding_cross_t.result(),
@@ -299,6 +326,10 @@ async def run_entry_cycle(
     inputs = {
         "snapshot": {
             "spot_eth_usd": str(snap.spot_eth_usd),
+            "spot_eth_30d_ago": (
+                str(snap.spot_eth_30d_ago) if snap.spot_eth_30d_ago else None
+            ),
+            "adx_14": str(snap.adx_14) if snap.adx_14 is not None else None,
             "dvol": str(snap.dvol),
             "funding_perp": str(snap.funding_perp),
             "funding_cross": str(snap.funding_cross),
@@ -326,17 +357,26 @@ async def run_entry_cycle(
             status=_STATUS_NO_ENTRY, reason=";".join(decision.reasons)
         )
 
-    # 3. Bias (need a 30-day prior spot — orchestrator passes it in)
-    # We approximate by reusing the current spot until the historical
-    # snapshot store ships in Phase 5; for now no historical → bias
-    # cannot fire bull/bear, only iron_condor when DVOL/ADX align. The
-    # caller is responsible for plugging in real data via overrides.
+    # 3. Bias — eth_30d_ago and adx_14 come from the historical snapshot
+    # collected during the parallel snapshot stage. When either signal
+    # is missing the bias function falls back to "no entry" (defensive
+    # behaviour: never trade without confirmed regime data).
+    if snap.spot_eth_30d_ago is None:
+        await alert.medium(
+            source="entry_cycle",
+            message="historical spot unavailable — bias falls back to neutral",
+        )
+    if snap.adx_14 is None:
+        await alert.medium(
+            source="entry_cycle",
+            message="ADX unavailable — bias may reject iron_condor",
+        )
     trend_ctx = TrendContext(
         eth_now=snap.spot_eth_usd,
-        eth_30d_ago=snap.spot_eth_usd,
+        eth_30d_ago=snap.spot_eth_30d_ago or snap.spot_eth_usd,
         funding_cross_annualized=snap.funding_cross,
         dvol_now=snap.dvol,
-        adx_14=Decimal("25"),  # placeholder until ADX lands in market data
+        adx_14=snap.adx_14 if snap.adx_14 is not None else Decimal("25"),
     )
     bias = compute_bias(trend_ctx, cfg)
     if bias is None: