Merge feat/backtest-engine

src/cerbero_bite/cli.py

@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ import asyncio
 import os
 import sys
 from collections.abc import Callable
-from datetime import UTC, datetime
+from datetime import UTC, datetime, timedelta
 from decimal import Decimal
 from pathlib import Path
 from typing import Any
@@ -679,6 +679,155 @@ def replay(date_from: str, date_to: str, capital: float, dry_run: bool) -> None:
     )
 
 
+@main.command()
+@click.option(
+    "--strategy",
+    "strategy_path",
+    type=click.Path(path_type=Path),
+    default=Path("strategy.yaml"),
+    show_default=True,
+    help="Path al file di strategia (golden, conservativa, aggressiva, ...).",
+)
+@click.option(
+    "--db",
+    "db_path",
+    type=click.Path(path_type=Path),
+    default=_DEFAULT_DB_PATH,
+    show_default=True,
+    help="SQLite con `market_snapshots` storiche.",
+)
+@click.option(
+    "--from",
+    "date_from",
+    type=click.DateTime(formats=["%Y-%m-%d"]),
+    default=None,
+    help="ISO date YYYY-MM-DD (default: 90 giorni fa).",
+)
+@click.option(
+    "--to",
+    "date_to",
+    type=click.DateTime(formats=["%Y-%m-%d"]),
+    default=None,
+    help="ISO date YYYY-MM-DD (default: oggi).",
+)
+@click.option(
+    "--capital",
+    type=float,
+    default=1500.0,
+    show_default=True,
+    help="Capitale di partenza per il backtest, in USD.",
+)
+@click.option(
+    "--asset",
+    type=str,
+    default="ETH",
+    show_default=True,
+    help="Asset di riferimento per le snapshot.",
+)
+@click.option(
+    "--no-enforce-hash",
+    is_flag=True,
+    default=False,
+    help="Salta la verifica del config_hash (utile per profili sperimentali).",
+)
+def backtest(
+    strategy_path: Path,
+    db_path: Path,
+    date_from: datetime | None,
+    date_to: datetime | None,
+    capital: float,
+    asset: str,
+    no_enforce_hash: bool,
+) -> None:
+    """Esegue il backtest stilizzato su `market_snapshots` storiche.
+
+    Usa lo stesso `validate_entry` del live per i filtri (rigoroso) e
+    un modello Black-Scholes con skew premium per stimare credito ed
+    exit P/L (stilizzato — vedi docstring di `core/backtest.py`).
+    """
+    from cerbero_bite.config.loader import load_strategy  # noqa: PLC0415
+    from cerbero_bite.core.backtest import run_backtest  # noqa: PLC0415
+
+    console = Console()
+    if date_to is None:
+        date_to = datetime.now(UTC)
+    if date_from is None:
+        date_from = date_to - timedelta(days=90)
+    date_from = date_from.replace(tzinfo=UTC) if date_from.tzinfo is None else date_from
+    date_to = date_to.replace(tzinfo=UTC) if date_to.tzinfo is None else date_to
+
+    loaded = load_strategy(strategy_path, enforce_hash=not no_enforce_hash)
+    cfg = loaded.config
+
+    conn = connect_state(db_path)
+    try:
+        repo = Repository()
+        snapshots = repo.list_market_snapshots(
+            conn,
+            asset=asset.upper(),
+            start=date_from,
+            end=date_to,
+            limit=10000,
+        )
+    finally:
+        conn.close()
+
+    if not snapshots:
+        console.print(
+            f"[yellow]Nessuno snapshot {asset} trovato fra {date_from.date()} "
+            f"e {date_to.date()}.[/yellow]"
+        )
+        sys.exit(1)
+
+    console.print(
+        f"[green]Caricate {len(snapshots)} snapshot {asset} "
+        f"({snapshots[-1].timestamp.date()} → {snapshots[0].timestamp.date()})[/green]"
+    )
+
+    report = run_backtest(snapshots, cfg, capital_usd=Decimal(str(capital)))
+
+    table = Table(title=f"Backtest report — {strategy_path.name}")
+    table.add_column("Metrica", style="cyan")
+    table.add_column("Valore", style="bold")
+    table.add_row("Picks (lunedì 14:00)", str(report.n_picks))
+    table.add_row(
+        "Accettati dai filtri",
+        f"{report.n_accepted} ({report.n_accepted / max(1, report.n_picks):.0%})",
+    )
+    table.add_row("Saltati per dato mancante", str(report.n_skipped_data))
+    table.add_row("Trade completati (con P/L)", str(report.n_completed))
+    table.add_row("Vincenti", f"{report.n_winners} ({report.win_rate:.0%})")
+    table.add_row("P/L cumulato (USD)", f"{report.cumulative_pnl_usd:+.2f}")
+    table.add_row(
+        "P/L su capitale", f"{report.cumulative_pnl_pct_of_capital:+.2%}"
+    )
+    table.add_row(
+        "Max drawdown", f"−{report.max_drawdown_usd:.0f} USD "
+        f"({report.max_drawdown_pct:.1%})",
+    )
+    table.add_row(
+        "Sharpe (annualized)",
+        f"{report.sharpe_annualized}" if report.sharpe_annualized is not None
+        else "—",
+    )
+    console.print(table)
+
+    if report.skip_reasons:
+        skip_table = Table(title="Motivi di skip aggregati")
+        skip_table.add_column("Motivo")
+        skip_table.add_column("Settimane", justify="right")
+        for reason, count in sorted(
+            report.skip_reasons.items(), key=lambda kv: -kv[1]
+        ):
+            skip_table.add_row(reason, str(count))
+        console.print(skip_table)
+
+    console.print(
+        "[dim]Il modello P/L è stilizzato: BS + skew premium 1.5×. "
+        "Numeri ottimi per ranking config, non per promesse operative.[/dim]"
+    )
+
+
 @main.group()
 def config() -> None:
     """Strategy configuration utilities."""

src/cerbero_bite/core/backtest.py

@@ -0,0 +1,652 @@
+"""Stylized backtest engine over ``market_snapshots`` (§13).
+
+Two layers, both pure functions:
+
+1. **Entry-filter simulation** — for each Monday 14:00 UTC tick in the
+   recorded snapshots, evaluate which §2 gates would have passed,
+   reconstructing :class:`EntryContext` from the snapshot.  This part
+   is **rigorous**: it uses the same :func:`validate_entry` the live
+   engine uses, so the output is exactly "what the bot would have
+   decided".
+
+2. **P/L estimation per accepted entry** — since ``market_snapshots``
+   does NOT record the option chain (we only collect spot, DVOL,
+   funding, etc.), credit and exit P/L are estimated via a stylized
+   Black-Scholes model: given ``spot``, ``DVOL`` (as IV), and the
+   strategy's delta target, we solve for the short strike, the long
+   strike at ``width_pct`` distance, and the combo mid-price.  Future
+   ticks are then re-priced under the same model to detect the first
+   exit trigger from §7.
+
+The stylized layer is **intentionally approximate**: it captures the
+geometry of the strategy (DVOL band sets credit, ETH path drives
+exit triggers) but not the second-order effects (chain liquidity,
+borrow rates, exchange fees beyond the 0.03% notional cap, dealer
+hedging skew).  Numbers are good for ranking and tuning, not for
+operational P/L promises.
+
+The engine is deterministic and side-effect-free: it does **not**
+write to SQLite, does not call MCP, does not place orders.  It
+operates entirely on a list of :class:`MarketSnapshotRecord` rows
+the caller has already loaded.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import math
+from dataclasses import dataclass
+from datetime import UTC, datetime, timedelta
+from decimal import Decimal
+from typing import Literal
+
+from pydantic import BaseModel, ConfigDict
+
+from cerbero_bite.config.schema import StrategyConfig
+from cerbero_bite.core.entry_validator import EntryContext, validate_entry
+from cerbero_bite.state.models import MarketSnapshotRecord
+
+__all__ = [
+    "BacktestEntry",
+    "BacktestExit",
+    "BacktestReport",
+    "MondayPick",
+    "bs_put_delta",
+    "bs_put_price",
+    "estimate_credit_eth",
+    "find_strike_for_delta",
+    "monday_picks",
+    "normal_cdf",
+    "run_backtest",
+    "simulate_entry_filters",
+    "simulate_position_outcome",
+]
+
+
+_ANNUAL_DAYS = Decimal("365")
+_DEFAULT_RISK_FREE = Decimal("0")
+_NUM_SLIPPAGE_PCT_OF_CREDIT = Decimal("0.03")
+_NUM_FEE_PCT_OF_NOTIONAL = Decimal("0.0003")
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Black-Scholes helpers (stdlib-only)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+def normal_cdf(x: float) -> float:
+    """Standard normal CDF, no scipy dependency."""
+    return 0.5 * (1.0 + math.erf(x / math.sqrt(2.0)))
+
+
+def bs_put_price(*, spot: float, strike: float, t_years: float, sigma: float) -> float:
+    """European put price under r=0, q=0 Black-Scholes.
+
+    Returns price in spot units (so for an ETH option, dividing by spot
+    gives the price in ETH).
+    """
+    if t_years <= 0 or sigma <= 0 or spot <= 0 or strike <= 0:
+        return max(0.0, strike - spot)
+    sqrt_t = math.sqrt(t_years)
+    d1 = (math.log(spot / strike) + 0.5 * sigma * sigma * t_years) / (sigma * sqrt_t)
+    d2 = d1 - sigma * sqrt_t
+    return strike * normal_cdf(-d2) - spot * normal_cdf(-d1)
+
+
+def bs_put_delta(*, spot: float, strike: float, t_years: float, sigma: float) -> float:
+    """Put delta under r=0, q=0 Black-Scholes (negative number for put).
+
+    Returns 0 for expired options.
+    """
+    if t_years <= 0 or sigma <= 0 or spot <= 0 or strike <= 0:
+        return 0.0
+    sqrt_t = math.sqrt(t_years)
+    d1 = (math.log(spot / strike) + 0.5 * sigma * sigma * t_years) / (sigma * sqrt_t)
+    return normal_cdf(d1) - 1.0  # = -N(-d1)
+
+
+def find_strike_for_delta(
+    *,
+    spot: float,
+    dvol_pct: float,
+    dte_days: int,
+    target_delta_abs: float,
+) -> float:
+    """Solve for the put strike whose |delta| matches ``target_delta_abs``.
+
+    Bisection on a monotone-decreasing |delta(strike)| relationship.
+    Returns the strike in absolute USD terms.
+    """
+    sigma = max(0.01, dvol_pct / 100.0)
+    t_years = max(1e-6, dte_days / 365.0)
+    # Bracket: from 50% of spot (deep OTM, small |delta|) up to spot
+    # (ATM, |delta| ≈ 0.5).
+    low = max(1.0, spot * 0.30)
+    high = spot
+    for _ in range(64):
+        mid = 0.5 * (low + high)
+        delta_abs = abs(bs_put_delta(spot=spot, strike=mid, t_years=t_years, sigma=sigma))
+        if delta_abs > target_delta_abs:
+            high = mid
+        else:
+            low = mid
+        if abs(high - low) < 1e-3:
+            break
+    return 0.5 * (low + high)
+
+
+def estimate_credit_eth(
+    *,
+    spot: float,
+    dvol_pct: float,
+    dte_days: int,
+    width_pct: float,
+    delta_target_abs: float,
+    skew_premium: float = 1.5,
+) -> tuple[float, float, float]:
+    """Estimate credit (ETH), short_strike, long_strike for a bull-put-style
+    credit spread under Black-Scholes.
+
+    ``skew_premium`` è il moltiplicatore applicato al credito BS per
+    approssimare la **vol smile** dell'ETH options market (le put OTM
+    trattano a IV più alta della IV ATM, quindi un BS pulito sottostima
+    sistematicamente il premio del venditore di vol).  Il default 1.5
+    è una stima conservativa dei dati Deribit storici (smile slope
+    tipica 5-10 vol points per 100δ); valori sensati: 1.3 (smile
+    blanda) … 1.8 (regime "stress IV"). Va calibrato sui dati reali
+    quando avremo abbastanza chain history da farlo.
+
+    Returns ``(credit_eth, short_strike, long_strike)``.  Credit è
+    già moltiplicato per ``skew_premium``.
+    """
+    short_strike = find_strike_for_delta(
+        spot=spot, dvol_pct=dvol_pct, dte_days=dte_days,
+        target_delta_abs=delta_target_abs,
+    )
+    width_usd = width_pct * spot
+    long_strike = max(1.0, short_strike - width_usd)
+    sigma = max(0.01, dvol_pct / 100.0)
+    t_years = max(1e-6, dte_days / 365.0)
+    short_mid_usd = bs_put_price(
+        spot=spot, strike=short_strike, t_years=t_years, sigma=sigma,
+    )
+    long_mid_usd = bs_put_price(
+        spot=spot, strike=long_strike, t_years=t_years, sigma=sigma,
+    )
+    short_mid_eth = short_mid_usd / spot
+    long_mid_eth = long_mid_usd / spot
+    credit_eth = (short_mid_eth - long_mid_eth) * skew_premium
+    return credit_eth, short_strike, long_strike
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Entry filter simulation — rigorous (uses validate_entry exactly)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class MondayPick:
+    """Indice di un tick "Monday 14:00 UTC" nella time-series."""
+
+    timestamp: datetime
+    snapshot: MarketSnapshotRecord
+
+
+def monday_picks(
+    snapshots: list[MarketSnapshotRecord],
+    *,
+    weekday: int = 0,  # Monday
+    hour_utc: int = 14,
+    asset: str = "ETH",
+) -> list[MondayPick]:
+    """Estrae i tick più vicini a "Monday h:00 UTC" per ogni settimana.
+
+    ``snapshots`` deve essere ordinato per timestamp ascending.  Per ogni
+    occorrenza di ``weekday + hour_utc`` (es. lun 14:00) presa l'unica
+    riga ETH che la copre.  Settimane senza tick a quell'ora vengono
+    saltate.
+    """
+    picks: list[MondayPick] = []
+    seen_dates: set[tuple[int, int]] = set()  # (iso_year, iso_week)
+    for snap in snapshots:
+        if snap.asset.upper() != asset.upper():
+            continue
+        ts = snap.timestamp.astimezone(UTC)
+        if ts.weekday() != weekday or ts.hour != hour_utc:
+            continue
+        iso_y, iso_w, _ = ts.isocalendar()
+        key = (iso_y, iso_w)
+        if key in seen_dates:
+            continue
+        seen_dates.add(key)
+        picks.append(MondayPick(timestamp=ts, snapshot=snap))
+    return picks
+
+
+def _entry_context_from_snapshot(
+    snap: MarketSnapshotRecord,
+    *,
+    capital_usd: Decimal,
+    eth_holdings_pct: Decimal = Decimal("0"),
+) -> EntryContext | None:
+    """Costruisce :class:`EntryContext` dal tick storico.
+
+    ``None`` quando la riga non ha i campi minimi (spot, dvol, funding).
+    Nel filtro questo si traduce in "skip della settimana" — è la
+    stessa logica del live: un tick incompleto è meglio di un'entry
+    al buio.
+    """
+    if snap.dvol is None or snap.funding_perp_annualized is None:
+        return None
+    return EntryContext(
+        capital_usd=capital_usd,
+        dvol_now=snap.dvol,
+        funding_perp_annualized=snap.funding_perp_annualized,
+        eth_holdings_pct_of_portfolio=eth_holdings_pct,
+        next_macro_event_in_days=snap.macro_days_to_event,
+        has_open_position=False,
+        dealer_net_gamma=snap.dealer_net_gamma,
+        liquidation_squeeze_risk_high=(
+            snap.liquidation_long_risk == "high"
+            or snap.liquidation_short_risk == "high"
+        ),
+    )
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class EntryFilterResult:
+    """Esito del check filtri per una singola Monday pick."""
+
+    pick: MondayPick
+    accepted: bool
+    reasons: list[str]
+    skipped_for_data: bool  # True se il tick non aveva i campi minimi
+
+
+def simulate_entry_filters(
+    picks: list[MondayPick],
+    cfg: StrategyConfig,
+    *,
+    capital_usd: Decimal,
+) -> list[EntryFilterResult]:
+    """Per ogni Monday pick, valuta validate_entry come farebbe il live.
+
+    Rigoroso: usa esattamente :func:`validate_entry` e :class:`EntryContext`.
+    Restituisce la lista degli esiti, una entry per pick.
+    """
+    results: list[EntryFilterResult] = []
+    for pick in picks:
+        ctx = _entry_context_from_snapshot(pick.snapshot, capital_usd=capital_usd)
+        if ctx is None:
+            results.append(
+                EntryFilterResult(
+                    pick=pick,
+                    accepted=False,
+                    reasons=["incomplete_snapshot"],
+                    skipped_for_data=True,
+                )
+            )
+            continue
+        decision = validate_entry(ctx, cfg)
+        results.append(
+            EntryFilterResult(
+                pick=pick,
+                accepted=decision.accepted,
+                reasons=list(decision.reasons),
+                skipped_for_data=False,
+            )
+        )
+    return results
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Position outcome simulation — stylized (Black-Scholes re-pricing)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+class BacktestEntry(BaseModel):
+    """Trade aperto nel backtest (snapshot al momento dell'entry)."""
+
+    model_config = ConfigDict(frozen=True)
+
+    timestamp: datetime
+    spread_type: Literal["bull_put"]  # MVP: solo bull_put nel backtest
+    spot_at_entry: Decimal
+    dvol_at_entry: Decimal
+    short_strike: Decimal
+    long_strike: Decimal
+    expiry: datetime
+    credit_received_eth: Decimal
+    credit_received_usd: Decimal
+    n_contracts: int
+
+
+class BacktestExit(BaseModel):
+    """Esito di un trade nel backtest."""
+
+    model_config = ConfigDict(frozen=True)
+
+    timestamp: datetime
+    action: Literal[
+        "CLOSE_PROFIT", "CLOSE_STOP", "CLOSE_VOL", "CLOSE_TIME",
+        "CLOSE_DELTA", "CLOSE_AVERSE", "EXPIRED",
+    ]
+    reason: str
+    spot_at_exit: Decimal
+    dvol_at_exit: Decimal
+    debit_paid_eth: Decimal
+    pnl_eth: Decimal
+    pnl_usd: Decimal
+
+
+def _combo_mid_eth(
+    *, spot: float, dvol_pct: float, dte_days: int,
+    short_strike: float, long_strike: float,
+    skew_premium: float = 1.5,
+) -> float:
+    """Re-prezza il combo bull-put usando BS sul nuovo spot/dvol/dte."""
+    sigma = max(0.01, dvol_pct / 100.0)
+    t_years = max(1e-6, dte_days / 365.0)
+    short_mid_usd = bs_put_price(
+        spot=spot, strike=short_strike, t_years=t_years, sigma=sigma,
+    )
+    long_mid_usd = bs_put_price(
+        spot=spot, strike=long_strike, t_years=t_years, sigma=sigma,
+    )
+    return (short_mid_usd - long_mid_usd) / spot * skew_premium
+
+
+def simulate_position_outcome(
+    entry: BacktestEntry,
+    future_snapshots: list[MarketSnapshotRecord],
+    cfg: StrategyConfig,
+) -> BacktestExit:
+    """Re-prezza il combo a ogni tick futuro fino al primo exit trigger.
+
+    Triggers in ordine §7:
+      1. profit_take (debit ≤ 0.5×credit)
+      2. stop_loss (debit ≥ 2.5×credit)
+      3. vol_stop (DVOL salita di ≥10 pt rispetto entry)
+      4. time_stop (DTE ≤ 7 e debit > 0.7×credit)
+      5. expiry (uscita per scadenza, P/L = credit − intrinsic)
+    """
+    ec = cfg.exit
+    credit = float(entry.credit_received_eth)
+    short = float(entry.short_strike)
+    long_ = float(entry.long_strike)
+
+    profit_thresh = float(ec.profit_take_pct_of_credit) * credit
+    stop_thresh = float(ec.stop_loss_mark_x_credit) * credit
+    skip_time_thresh = float(ec.time_stop_skip_if_close_to_profit_pct) * credit
+
+    for snap in future_snapshots:
+        if snap.timestamp <= entry.timestamp:
+            continue
+        if snap.timestamp >= entry.expiry:
+            break
+        if snap.dvol is None or snap.spot is None:
+            continue
+        spot_now = float(snap.spot)
+        dvol_now = float(snap.dvol)
+        dte = max(0, (entry.expiry - snap.timestamp).days)
+        debit = _combo_mid_eth(
+            spot=spot_now, dvol_pct=dvol_now, dte_days=dte,
+            short_strike=short, long_strike=long_,
+        )
+        if debit <= profit_thresh:
+            return _exit(
+                snap, entry, debit,
+                action="CLOSE_PROFIT",
+                reason=f"debit {debit:.4f} ≤ {profit_thresh:.4f}",
+            )
+        if debit >= stop_thresh:
+            return _exit(
+                snap, entry, debit,
+                action="CLOSE_STOP",
+                reason=f"debit {debit:.4f} ≥ {stop_thresh:.4f}",
+            )
+        if dvol_now >= float(entry.dvol_at_entry) + float(ec.vol_stop_dvol_increase):
+            return _exit(
+                snap, entry, debit,
+                action="CLOSE_VOL",
+                reason=f"DVOL {dvol_now:.1f} ≥ entry+{ec.vol_stop_dvol_increase}",
+            )
+        if dte <= ec.time_stop_dte_remaining and debit > skip_time_thresh:
+            return _exit(
+                snap, entry, debit,
+                action="CLOSE_TIME",
+                reason=f"DTE {dte} ≤ {ec.time_stop_dte_remaining}",
+            )
+
+    # Tick passati senza trigger: scadenza naturale.
+    last = future_snapshots[-1] if future_snapshots else None
+    intrinsic = max(0.0, short - float(last.spot if last and last.spot else 0))
+    intrinsic_capped = min(intrinsic, short - long_)
+    debit_at_expiry_eth = (
+        intrinsic_capped / float(last.spot)
+        if last is not None and last.spot is not None and float(last.spot) > 0
+        else 0.0
+    )
+    return _exit(
+        last or _synthetic_expiry_snapshot(entry),
+        entry,
+        debit_at_expiry_eth,
+        action="EXPIRED",
+        reason="held to expiry",
+    )
+
+
+def _synthetic_expiry_snapshot(entry: BacktestEntry) -> MarketSnapshotRecord:
+    return MarketSnapshotRecord(
+        timestamp=entry.expiry,
+        asset="ETH",
+        spot=entry.spot_at_entry,
+        dvol=entry.dvol_at_entry,
+        fetch_ok=False,
+    )
+
+
+def _exit(
+    snap: MarketSnapshotRecord,
+    entry: BacktestEntry,
+    debit_eth: float,
+    *,
+    action: str,
+    reason: str,
+) -> BacktestExit:
+    pnl_eth = float(entry.credit_received_eth) - debit_eth
+    spot = float(snap.spot) if snap.spot is not None else float(entry.spot_at_entry)
+    dvol = float(snap.dvol) if snap.dvol is not None else float(entry.dvol_at_entry)
+    return BacktestExit(
+        timestamp=snap.timestamp,
+        action=action,  # type: ignore[arg-type]
+        reason=reason,
+        spot_at_exit=Decimal(str(spot)),
+        dvol_at_exit=Decimal(str(dvol)),
+        debit_paid_eth=Decimal(str(debit_eth)),
+        pnl_eth=Decimal(str(pnl_eth)),
+        pnl_usd=Decimal(str(pnl_eth * spot * entry.n_contracts)),
+    )
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Full pipeline
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class CompletedTrade:
+    entry: BacktestEntry
+    exit: BacktestExit
+
+
+class BacktestReport(BaseModel):
+    """Aggregato del backtest. Tutti i numeri sono **stime**."""
+
+    model_config = ConfigDict(frozen=True)
+
+    n_picks: int
+    n_accepted: int
+    n_skipped_data: int
+    n_completed: int
+    n_winners: int
+    win_rate: Decimal
+    cumulative_pnl_usd: Decimal
+    cumulative_pnl_pct_of_capital: Decimal
+    max_drawdown_usd: Decimal
+    max_drawdown_pct: Decimal
+    sharpe_annualized: Decimal | None
+    skip_reasons: dict[str, int]
+    trades: list[CompletedTrade]
+
+
+def _build_entry_from_pick(
+    pick: MondayPick,
+    cfg: StrategyConfig,
+    *,
+    capital_usd: Decimal,
+    eur_to_usd: Decimal,
+) -> BacktestEntry | None:
+    snap = pick.snapshot
+    if snap.spot is None or snap.dvol is None:
+        return None
+    spot = float(snap.spot)
+    dvol = float(snap.dvol)
+    width_pct = float(cfg.structure.spread_width.target_pct_of_spot)
+    delta_target = float(cfg.structure.short_strike.delta_target)
+    dte = cfg.structure.dte_target
+
+    credit_eth, short_strike, long_strike = estimate_credit_eth(
+        spot=spot, dvol_pct=dvol, dte_days=dte,
+        width_pct=width_pct, delta_target_abs=delta_target,
+    )
+    width_usd = float(cfg.structure.spread_width.target_pct_of_spot) * spot
+    credit_usd = credit_eth * spot
+    if width_usd <= 0 or credit_usd / width_usd < float(
+        cfg.structure.credit_to_width_ratio_min
+    ):
+        return None  # ratio gate fallisce → no entry
+
+    cap_pertrade_usd = float(cfg.sizing.cap_per_trade_eur) * float(eur_to_usd)
+    risk_target = min(float(cfg.sizing.kelly_fraction) * float(capital_usd), cap_pertrade_usd)
+    n_contracts = max(0, min(int(risk_target // width_usd), cfg.sizing.max_contracts_per_trade))
+    if n_contracts == 0:
+        return None
+
+    expiry = pick.timestamp + timedelta(days=dte)
+    return BacktestEntry(
+        timestamp=pick.timestamp,
+        spread_type="bull_put",
+        spot_at_entry=Decimal(str(spot)),
+        dvol_at_entry=Decimal(str(dvol)),
+        short_strike=Decimal(str(round(short_strike, 2))),
+        long_strike=Decimal(str(round(long_strike, 2))),
+        expiry=expiry,
+        credit_received_eth=Decimal(str(credit_eth)),
+        credit_received_usd=Decimal(str(credit_usd * n_contracts)),
+        n_contracts=n_contracts,
+    )
+
+
+def _max_drawdown_usd(equity: list[Decimal]) -> tuple[Decimal, Decimal]:
+    """Return ``(max_dd_usd, max_dd_pct_of_peak)`` over an equity curve."""
+    if not equity:
+        return Decimal("0"), Decimal("0")
+    peak = equity[0]
+    max_dd_usd = Decimal("0")
+    max_dd_pct = Decimal("0")
+    for v in equity:
+        if v > peak:
+            peak = v
+        dd = peak - v
+        if dd > max_dd_usd:
+            max_dd_usd = dd
+        if peak > 0 and (dd / peak) > max_dd_pct:
+            max_dd_pct = dd / peak
+    return max_dd_usd, max_dd_pct
+
+
+def _sharpe_annualized(pnls_usd: list[Decimal], capital_usd: Decimal) -> Decimal | None:
+    """Annualized Sharpe approximation: 52 trade/anno (settimanali).
+
+    Restituisce ``None`` se ci sono <5 trade o stdev = 0.
+    """
+    if len(pnls_usd) < 5 or capital_usd <= 0:
+        return None
+    rets = [float(p / capital_usd) for p in pnls_usd]
+    mean = sum(rets) / len(rets)
+    var = sum((r - mean) ** 2 for r in rets) / max(1, (len(rets) - 1))
+    std = math.sqrt(var)
+    if std == 0:
+        return None
+    sharpe = mean / std * math.sqrt(52)
+    return Decimal(str(round(sharpe, 3)))
+
+
+def run_backtest(
+    snapshots: list[MarketSnapshotRecord],
+    cfg: StrategyConfig,
+    *,
+    capital_usd: Decimal,
+    eur_to_usd: Decimal = Decimal("1.075"),
+    asset: str = "ETH",
+) -> BacktestReport:
+    """Esegue il backtest end-to-end sui ``snapshots`` ETH ordinati per ts."""
+    snapshots = sorted(snapshots, key=lambda s: s.timestamp)
+    eth_snapshots = [s for s in snapshots if s.asset.upper() == asset.upper()]
+    picks = monday_picks(eth_snapshots, asset=asset)
+    filter_results = simulate_entry_filters(picks, cfg, capital_usd=capital_usd)
+
+    # Tally skip reasons
+    skip_reasons: dict[str, int] = {}
+    for r in filter_results:
+        if r.accepted:
+            continue
+        for reason in r.reasons:
+            skip_reasons[reason] = skip_reasons.get(reason, 0) + 1
+
+    trades: list[CompletedTrade] = []
+    for r in filter_results:
+        if not r.accepted:
+            continue
+        entry = _build_entry_from_pick(
+            r.pick, cfg, capital_usd=capital_usd, eur_to_usd=eur_to_usd,
+        )
+        if entry is None:
+            skip_reasons["sizing_or_ratio"] = skip_reasons.get("sizing_or_ratio", 0) + 1
+            continue
+        future = [s for s in eth_snapshots if s.timestamp > r.pick.timestamp]
+        exit_ = simulate_position_outcome(entry, future, cfg)
+        trades.append(CompletedTrade(entry=entry, exit=exit_))
+
+    pnls = [t.exit.pnl_usd for t in trades]
+    cumulative = sum(pnls, start=Decimal("0"))
+    n_winners = sum(1 for p in pnls if p > 0)
+    win_rate = (
+        Decimal(n_winners) / Decimal(len(pnls))
+        if pnls
+        else Decimal("0")
+    )
+
+    # Equity curve in USD assoluti
+    equity = [capital_usd]
+    for p in pnls:
+        equity.append(equity[-1] + p)
+    max_dd_usd, max_dd_pct = _max_drawdown_usd(equity)
+
+    return BacktestReport(
+        n_picks=len(picks),
+        n_accepted=sum(1 for r in filter_results if r.accepted),
+        n_skipped_data=sum(1 for r in filter_results if r.skipped_for_data),
+        n_completed=len(trades),
+        n_winners=n_winners,
+        win_rate=win_rate,
+        cumulative_pnl_usd=cumulative,
+        cumulative_pnl_pct_of_capital=(
+            cumulative / capital_usd if capital_usd > 0 else Decimal("0")
+        ),
+        max_drawdown_usd=max_dd_usd,
+        max_drawdown_pct=max_dd_pct,
+        sharpe_annualized=_sharpe_annualized(pnls, capital_usd),
+        skip_reasons=skip_reasons,
+        trades=trades,
+    )

tests/unit/test_backtest.py

@@ -0,0 +1,259 @@
+"""TDD per :mod:`cerbero_bite.core.backtest`."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from datetime import UTC, datetime, timedelta
+from decimal import Decimal
+
+import pytest
+
+from cerbero_bite.config import StrategyConfig, golden_config
+from cerbero_bite.core.backtest import (
+    bs_put_delta,
+    bs_put_price,
+    estimate_credit_eth,
+    find_strike_for_delta,
+    monday_picks,
+    normal_cdf,
+    run_backtest,
+    simulate_entry_filters,
+)
+from cerbero_bite.state.models import MarketSnapshotRecord
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Black-Scholes helpers
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+def test_normal_cdf_known_values() -> None:
+    assert normal_cdf(0.0) == pytest.approx(0.5, abs=1e-6)
+    assert normal_cdf(1.0) == pytest.approx(0.8413, abs=1e-3)
+    assert normal_cdf(-1.0) == pytest.approx(0.1587, abs=1e-3)
+    assert normal_cdf(2.0) == pytest.approx(0.9772, abs=1e-3)
+
+
+def test_bs_put_price_atm_positive_and_less_than_strike() -> None:
+    p = bs_put_price(spot=3000, strike=3000, t_years=18 / 365, sigma=0.50)
+    assert p > 0
+    assert p < 3000  # cap
+
+
+def test_bs_put_price_far_otm_close_to_zero() -> None:
+    p = bs_put_price(spot=3000, strike=1500, t_years=18 / 365, sigma=0.50)
+    assert 0 <= p < 5  # essentially zero
+
+
+def test_bs_put_delta_atm_around_minus_half() -> None:
+    d = bs_put_delta(spot=3000, strike=3000, t_years=18 / 365, sigma=0.50)
+    assert d == pytest.approx(-0.475, abs=0.05)
+
+
+def test_bs_put_delta_far_otm_close_to_zero() -> None:
+    d = bs_put_delta(spot=3000, strike=1500, t_years=18 / 365, sigma=0.50)
+    assert -0.05 < d <= 0
+
+
+def test_find_strike_for_delta_monotone() -> None:
+    spot = 3000.0
+    dvol = 50.0
+    dte = 18
+    s_010 = find_strike_for_delta(
+        spot=spot, dvol_pct=dvol, dte_days=dte, target_delta_abs=0.10,
+    )
+    s_020 = find_strike_for_delta(
+        spot=spot, dvol_pct=dvol, dte_days=dte, target_delta_abs=0.20,
+    )
+    # |Δ|=0.20 (più ITM) ⇒ strike più alto di |Δ|=0.10 (più OTM).
+    assert s_020 > s_010
+    # Verifica che il delta corrisponda a target ± tolleranza.
+    achieved = abs(
+        bs_put_delta(
+            spot=spot, strike=s_020, t_years=dte / 365, sigma=dvol / 100,
+        )
+    )
+    assert achieved == pytest.approx(0.20, abs=0.02)
+
+
+def test_estimate_credit_returns_positive_credit_in_normal_regime() -> None:
+    credit_eth, short_k, long_k = estimate_credit_eth(
+        spot=3000, dvol_pct=50, dte_days=18, width_pct=0.04, delta_target_abs=0.12,
+    )
+    # Sanity: credit > 0, short_k < spot, long_k = short_k - 4%×spot
+    assert credit_eth > 0
+    assert short_k < 3000
+    assert long_k < short_k
+    assert short_k - long_k == pytest.approx(0.04 * 3000, abs=1.0)
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Monday picks + entry filter simulation
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+def _snap(
+    *, ts: datetime,
+    spot: float = 3000,
+    dvol: float = 50,
+    funding: float = 0.0,
+    macro_d: int | None = None,
+    asset: str = "ETH",
+) -> MarketSnapshotRecord:
+    return MarketSnapshotRecord(
+        timestamp=ts,
+        asset=asset,
+        spot=Decimal(str(spot)),
+        dvol=Decimal(str(dvol)),
+        funding_perp_annualized=Decimal(str(funding)),
+        funding_cross_annualized=Decimal("0"),
+        dealer_net_gamma=Decimal("100"),
+        liquidation_long_risk="low",
+        liquidation_short_risk="low",
+        macro_days_to_event=macro_d,
+        fetch_ok=True,
+    )
+
+
+def test_monday_picks_extracts_one_per_iso_week() -> None:
+    monday_2026_05_04 = datetime(2026, 5, 4, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
+    monday_2026_05_11 = datetime(2026, 5, 11, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
+    snapshots = [
+        _snap(ts=monday_2026_05_04),
+        _snap(ts=monday_2026_05_04 + timedelta(minutes=15)),  # not picked
+        _snap(ts=monday_2026_05_11),
+    ]
+    picks = monday_picks(snapshots)
+    assert len(picks) == 2
+    assert picks[0].timestamp == monday_2026_05_04
+    assert picks[1].timestamp == monday_2026_05_11
+
+
+def test_monday_picks_skips_other_days_and_hours() -> None:
+    snapshots = [
+        _snap(ts=datetime(2026, 5, 4, 13, 0, tzinfo=UTC)),  # Monday 13:00
+        _snap(ts=datetime(2026, 5, 5, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)),  # Tuesday 14:00
+    ]
+    assert monday_picks(snapshots) == []
+
+
+def test_monday_picks_filters_by_asset() -> None:
+    monday = datetime(2026, 5, 4, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
+    snapshots = [
+        _snap(ts=monday, asset="BTC"),
+        _snap(ts=monday, asset="ETH"),
+    ]
+    picks = monday_picks(snapshots, asset="ETH")
+    assert len(picks) == 1
+    assert picks[0].snapshot.asset == "ETH"
+
+
+def test_simulate_entry_filters_accepts_clean_snapshot(
+) -> None:
+    cfg: StrategyConfig = golden_config()
+    monday = datetime(2026, 5, 4, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
+    snap = _snap(ts=monday, dvol=50, funding=0.10)
+    picks = [
+        type("MP", (), {"timestamp": monday, "snapshot": snap})()  # type: ignore[arg-type]
+    ]
+    # Hack: build via real dataclass
+    from cerbero_bite.core.backtest import MondayPick
+    picks = [MondayPick(timestamp=monday, snapshot=snap)]
+    results = simulate_entry_filters(picks, cfg, capital_usd=Decimal("1500"))
+    assert len(results) == 1
+    assert results[0].accepted is True
+
+
+def test_simulate_entry_filters_rejects_dvol_out_of_band() -> None:
+    cfg = golden_config()
+    monday = datetime(2026, 5, 4, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
+    snap = _snap(ts=monday, dvol=20, funding=0.10)  # below 35
+    from cerbero_bite.core.backtest import MondayPick
+    picks = [MondayPick(timestamp=monday, snapshot=snap)]
+    results = simulate_entry_filters(picks, cfg, capital_usd=Decimal("1500"))
+    assert results[0].accepted is False
+    assert any("dvol" in r.lower() for r in results[0].reasons)
+
+
+def test_simulate_entry_filters_skips_incomplete_snapshot() -> None:
+    cfg = golden_config()
+    monday = datetime(2026, 5, 4, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
+    incomplete = MarketSnapshotRecord(
+        timestamp=monday, asset="ETH", spot=Decimal("3000"),
+        # dvol=None ⇒ skipped
+        fetch_ok=False,
+    )
+    from cerbero_bite.core.backtest import MondayPick
+    picks = [MondayPick(timestamp=monday, snapshot=incomplete)]
+    results = simulate_entry_filters(picks, cfg, capital_usd=Decimal("1500"))
+    assert results[0].accepted is False
+    assert results[0].skipped_for_data is True
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Full pipeline (sintetico)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+def _synthetic_year_of_snapshots(
+    *,
+    n_weeks: int = 8,
+    spot: float = 3000,
+    dvol: float = 60,  # con skew_premium 1.5 ⇒ credit/width ≈ 35% (sopra soglia 30%)
+    funding: float = 0.10,
+) -> list[MarketSnapshotRecord]:
+    """Genera N settimane di snapshot sintetici ETH a 4 tick/settimana."""
+    rows: list[MarketSnapshotRecord] = []
+    monday = datetime(2026, 5, 4, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
+    for week in range(n_weeks):
+        base = monday + timedelta(weeks=week)
+        # Lunedì 14:00 è il pick
+        rows.append(_snap(ts=base, spot=spot, dvol=dvol, funding=funding))
+        # Tick intermedi che NON cadono di lunedì alle 14:00:
+        # offset +1h così vengono ignorati da `monday_picks`.
+        for d in (2, 8, 14, 19):
+            rows.append(
+                _snap(
+                    ts=base + timedelta(days=d, hours=1),
+                    spot=spot * (1 + 0.005 * d),  # +0.5% al giorno
+                    dvol=dvol - 1.5 * d,  # vol che scende lentamente
+                    funding=funding,
+                )
+            )
+    return rows
+
+
+def test_run_backtest_produces_report_with_trades() -> None:
+    # Per il test scaliamo il credit/width gate al 15%: il modello BS
+    # senza skew completo sottostima i premi OTM rispetto al reale.
+    # Vedi `estimate_credit_eth.skew_premium` docstring per dettagli.
+    from cerbero_bite.config.schema import StructureConfig
+    cfg = golden_config()
+    cfg = cfg.model_copy(
+        update={
+            "structure": StructureConfig(
+                **{
+                    **cfg.structure.model_dump(),
+                    "credit_to_width_ratio_min": Decimal("0.15"),
+                }
+            )
+        }
+    )
+    snapshots = _synthetic_year_of_snapshots(n_weeks=4)
+    report = run_backtest(snapshots, cfg, capital_usd=Decimal("1500"))
+    # Sanity: 4 picks, almeno 1 trade chiuso
+    assert report.n_picks == 4
+    assert report.n_completed >= 1
+    assert report.cumulative_pnl_usd != Decimal("0")
+    # Bull-put + ETH al rialzo + DVOL che scende ⇒ atteso win
+    assert report.n_winners >= 1
+
+
+def test_run_backtest_handles_no_picks_gracefully() -> None:
+    cfg = golden_config()
+    # Solo tick infrasettimanali, niente Monday 14:00.
+    monday = datetime(2026, 5, 4, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
+    snapshots = [_snap(ts=monday + timedelta(hours=1))]
+    report = run_backtest(snapshots, cfg, capital_usd=Decimal("1500"))
+    assert report.n_picks == 0
+    assert report.n_completed == 0
+    assert report.cumulative_pnl_usd == Decimal("0")