"""Strategia page — documento operativo + lettura live dei segnali. Renderizza il documento canonico ``docs/13-strategia-spiegata.md`` e sopra di esso un pannello che mostra l'ultimo tick di ``market_snapshots`` confrontato con le soglie di ``strategy.yaml``. Lo scopo è far vedere subito, ogni volta che si apre la pagina: "a cosa serve il dato che il bot sta raccogliendo adesso". La pagina è di sola lettura: non chiama MCP, non scrive sul DB. """ from __future__ import annotations import os from dataclasses import dataclass from pathlib import Path import streamlit as st from cerbero_bite.config.loader import load_strategy from cerbero_bite.gui.data_layer import ( DEFAULT_DB_PATH, humanize_dt, load_market_snapshots, ) from cerbero_bite.state.models import MarketSnapshotRecord _DOC_FILENAME = "13-strategia-spiegata.md" _DOC_CANDIDATES: tuple[Path, ...] = ( Path("/app/docs") / _DOC_FILENAME, # in-container shipped via Dockerfile Path(__file__).resolve().parents[4] / "docs" / _DOC_FILENAME, # repo dev Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3] / "docs" / _DOC_FILENAME, ) def _resolve_db() -> Path: return Path(os.environ.get("CERBERO_BITE_GUI_DB", DEFAULT_DB_PATH)) def _load_doc() -> str | None: for candidate in _DOC_CANDIDATES: if candidate.is_file(): try: return candidate.read_text(encoding="utf-8") except OSError: continue return None @dataclass(frozen=True) class _GateRow: label: str value: str threshold: str status: str # "pass" | "fail" | "n/a" note: str = "" def _fmt_decimal(v: object, *, fmt: str = "{:.4g}", suffix: str = "") -> str: if v is None: return "—" try: return fmt.format(float(v)) + suffix except (TypeError, ValueError): return "—" def _build_gates( snap: MarketSnapshotRecord, strategy: object ) -> list[_GateRow]: """Costruisce le righe del pannello live dai gate §2 della strategia.""" rows: list[_GateRow] = [] entry = getattr(strategy, "entry", None) structure = getattr(strategy, "structure", None) # --- DVOL band ------------------------------------------------- dvol_min = float(getattr(entry, "dvol_min", 35.0)) if entry else 35.0 dvol_max = float(getattr(entry, "dvol_max", 90.0)) if entry else 90.0 dvol_v = float(snap.dvol) if snap.dvol is not None else None if dvol_v is None: rows.append( _GateRow( "DVOL in banda 35–90", "—", f"{dvol_min:.0f} ≤ DVOL ≤ {dvol_max:.0f}", "n/a", "Dato non disponibile in questo tick.", ) ) else: ok = dvol_min <= dvol_v <= dvol_max rows.append( _GateRow( "DVOL in banda", f"{dvol_v:.2f}", f"{dvol_min:.0f} … {dvol_max:.0f}", "pass" if ok else "fail", "Premio adeguato e regime non-stress." if ok else "Sotto banda = premio magro; sopra = stress, no entry.", ) ) # --- Funding perp annualized ---------------------------------- fund_max = ( float(getattr(entry, "funding_perp_abs_max_annualized", 0.80)) if entry else 0.80 ) fp = ( float(snap.funding_perp_annualized) if snap.funding_perp_annualized is not None else None ) if fp is None: rows.append( _GateRow( "Funding perp |·| ≤ soglia", "—", f"|f| ≤ {fund_max:.0%}", "n/a", ) ) else: ok = abs(fp) <= fund_max rows.append( _GateRow( "Funding perp |·|", f"{fp:+.2%}", f"≤ {fund_max:.0%}", "pass" if ok else "fail", "Filtra regimi di liquidazioni a cascata imminenti.", ) ) # --- Cross-exchange funding (bias) --------------------------- bull_th = ( float(getattr(entry, "funding_bull_threshold_annualized", 0.20)) if entry else 0.20 ) bear_th = ( float(getattr(entry, "funding_bear_threshold_annualized", -0.20)) if entry else -0.20 ) fc = ( float(snap.funding_cross_annualized) if snap.funding_cross_annualized is not None else None ) if fc is None: bias_funding = "—" rows.append( _GateRow( "Funding cross (bias)", "—", f"bull ≥ {bull_th:+.0%} · bear ≤ {bear_th:+.0%}", "n/a", ) ) else: if fc >= bull_th: bias_funding = "BULL" elif fc <= bear_th: bias_funding = "BEAR" else: bias_funding = "NEUTRO" rows.append( _GateRow( "Funding cross (bias)", f"{fc:+.2%} → {bias_funding}", f"bull ≥ {bull_th:+.0%} · bear ≤ {bear_th:+.0%}", "pass" if bias_funding != "NEUTRO" else "fail", "Mediana 4 maggiori exchange. Discordante col trend = no entry.", ) ) # --- Macro days to event -------------------------------------- dte_target = ( int(getattr(structure, "dte_target", 18)) if structure else 18 ) macro_d = snap.macro_days_to_event if macro_d is None: rows.append( _GateRow( "Macro fuori finestra DTE", "nessun evento", f"> {dte_target}g", "pass", "Nessun evento ad alta severità entro la scadenza target.", ) ) else: ok = macro_d > dte_target rows.append( _GateRow( "Macro fuori finestra DTE", f"{macro_d} g al prossimo", f"> {dte_target} g", "pass" if ok else "fail", "FOMC/CPI/NFP/ECB/Powell entro DTE = no entry.", ) ) # --- Dealer gamma --------------------------------------------- gamma_min = ( float(getattr(entry, "dealer_gamma_min", 0.0)) if entry else 0.0 ) gamma_enabled = ( bool(getattr(entry, "dealer_gamma_filter_enabled", True)) if entry else True ) g = ( float(snap.dealer_net_gamma) if snap.dealer_net_gamma is not None else None ) if not gamma_enabled: rows.append( _GateRow( "Dealer gamma filter", _fmt_decimal(g, fmt="{:,.0f}", suffix=" USD") if g is not None else "—", "filtro DISABILITATO", "n/a", ) ) elif g is None: rows.append( _GateRow( "Dealer net gamma > soglia", "—", f"> {gamma_min:,.0f} USD", "n/a", ) ) else: ok = g > gamma_min rows.append( _GateRow( "Dealer net gamma", f"{g:,.0f} USD", f"> {gamma_min:,.0f} USD", "pass" if ok else "fail", "Long-gamma regime sopprime la vol → ideale per vendere spread.", ) ) # --- Liquidation risks ---------------------------------------- liq_enabled = ( bool(getattr(entry, "liquidation_filter_enabled", True)) if entry else True ) long_r = snap.liquidation_long_risk or "—" short_r = snap.liquidation_short_risk or "—" lr_status = "n/a" if liq_enabled and snap.liquidation_long_risk and snap.liquidation_short_risk: worst = max( ("low", "med", "high").index(snap.liquidation_long_risk) if snap.liquidation_long_risk in ("low", "med", "high") else 0, ("low", "med", "high").index(snap.liquidation_short_risk) if snap.liquidation_short_risk in ("low", "med", "high") else 0, ) lr_status = "fail" if worst == 2 else "pass" rows.append( _GateRow( "Liquidation risk (long / short)", f"{long_r} / {short_r}", "non `high`" if liq_enabled else "filtro DISABILITATO", lr_status, "Densità liquidazioni vicine al spot. `high` su un lato = scarta setup.", ) ) # --- IV − RV (richness) — solo informativo -------------------- rv = ( float(snap.realized_vol_30d) if snap.realized_vol_30d is not None else None ) iv_minus_rv = ( float(snap.iv_minus_rv) if snap.iv_minus_rv is not None else None ) rows.append( _GateRow( "IV − RV (richness)", ( f"{iv_minus_rv:+.2f} pt vol" if iv_minus_rv is not None else "—" ), "info, > 0 = premio ricco", "pass" if (iv_minus_rv is not None and iv_minus_rv > 0) else "n/a", f"RV30={rv:.2f}" if rv is not None else "", ) ) return rows def _render_gates(rows: list[_GateRow]) -> None: icons = {"pass": "✅", "fail": "❌", "n/a": "⚪"} for r in rows: icon = icons.get(r.status, "⚪") col1, col2, col3 = st.columns([4, 4, 4]) col1.markdown(f"{icon} **{r.label}**") col2.markdown(f"`{r.value}`") col3.markdown(f"_{r.threshold}_") if r.note: st.caption(r.note) st.divider() def _profile_caps(strategy: object | None) -> dict[str, float]: """Estrae le sole leve di sizing da una strategia (o usa default conservativi).""" out = { "cap_pertrade_eur": 200.0, "cap_aggregate_eur": 1000.0, "kelly": 0.13, "max_n": 4.0, "max_concurrent": 1.0, "width_pct": 0.04, "credit_ratio": 0.30, "profit_take": 0.50, "stop_mult": 2.50, } if strategy is None: return out try: out["cap_pertrade_eur"] = float(strategy.sizing.cap_per_trade_eur) # type: ignore[attr-defined] out["cap_aggregate_eur"] = float(strategy.sizing.cap_aggregate_open_eur) # type: ignore[attr-defined] out["kelly"] = float(strategy.sizing.kelly_fraction) # type: ignore[attr-defined] out["max_n"] = float(strategy.sizing.max_contracts_per_trade) # type: ignore[attr-defined] out["max_concurrent"] = float(strategy.sizing.max_concurrent_positions) # type: ignore[attr-defined] out["width_pct"] = float(strategy.structure.spread_width.target_pct_of_spot) # type: ignore[attr-defined] out["credit_ratio"] = float(strategy.structure.credit_to_width_ratio_min) # type: ignore[attr-defined] out["profit_take"] = float(strategy.exit.profit_take_pct_of_credit) # type: ignore[attr-defined] out["stop_mult"] = float(strategy.exit.stop_loss_mark_x_credit) # type: ignore[attr-defined] except Exception: pass return out def _compute_pl( caps: dict[str, float], *, capital: float, spot: float, win_rate: float, trades_per_year: int, eur_to_usd: float = 1.075, ) -> dict[str, float]: """Calcola le metriche P/L per un profilo di sizing.""" width = caps["width_pct"] * spot credit = caps["credit_ratio"] * width tp_profit = caps["profit_take"] * credit sl_loss = (caps["stop_mult"] - 1.0) * credit cap_pertrade_usd = caps["cap_pertrade_eur"] * eur_to_usd risk_target = min(caps["kelly"] * capital, cap_pertrade_usd) n_kelly = int(risk_target // width) if width > 0 else 0 n_per_trade = max(0, min(n_kelly, int(caps["max_n"]))) prob_time_stop = 0.07 prob_other_stop = 0.03 prob_loss = max(0.0, 1.0 - win_rate - prob_time_stop - prob_other_stop) avg_time_stop_pl = 0.10 * credit e_trade_gross = ( win_rate * tp_profit - prob_loss * sl_loss + prob_time_stop * avg_time_stop_pl ) fees = 0.0003 * spot * 2 slippage = 0.03 * credit e_trade_net = e_trade_gross - fees - slippage # Multi-posizione concorrente: il P/L scala col numero di posizioni # aperte simultaneamente (il loop entry crea N trade indipendenti # quando max_concurrent > 1). Vedi caveat aggressiva.yaml: il # supporto multi-asset richiede modifiche di codice; questo # moltiplicatore stima cosa otterresti DOPO. concurrency = max(1.0, caps["max_concurrent"]) annual_pl = trades_per_year * n_per_trade * concurrency * e_trade_net apr = (annual_pl / capital) if capital > 0 else 0.0 return { "width": width, "credit": credit, "tp_profit": tp_profit, "sl_loss": sl_loss, "risk_target": risk_target, "n_per_trade": float(n_per_trade), "concurrency": concurrency, "e_trade_net": e_trade_net, "annual_pl": annual_pl, "apr": apr, "fees": fees, "slippage": slippage, } def _render_profile_card( label: str, caps: dict[str, float], metrics: dict[str, float], badge: str, ) -> None: """Rendering di un profilo (conservativo o aggressivo) in una colonna.""" st.markdown(f"### {label} {badge}") st.caption( f"cap/trade {caps['cap_pertrade_eur']:.0f} EUR · " f"cap aggreg. {caps['cap_aggregate_eur']:.0f} EUR · " f"max {caps['max_n']:.0f} contratti × " f"{caps['max_concurrent']:.0f} pos. concorrenti" ) cols = st.columns(2) cols[0].metric("Contratti per trade", f"{metrics['n_per_trade']:.0f}") cols[1].metric("Posizioni concorrenti", f"{metrics['concurrency']:.0f}") cols = st.columns(2) cols[0].metric( "E[trade] netto", f"{metrics['e_trade_net']:+.1f} USD", help=( f"fees={metrics['fees']:.2f} USD, " f"slippage={metrics['slippage']:.2f} USD" ), ) cols[1].metric( "P/L annuo stimato", f"{metrics['annual_pl']:+.0f} USD", delta=f"{metrics['apr']:+.1%} APR", ) if metrics["n_per_trade"] == 0: st.warning( "Sizing 0 contratti: capitale insufficiente per i cap di " "questo profilo." ) def _render_pl_panel( strategy_main: object | None, strategy_conservativa: object | None, strategy_aggressiva: object | None, ) -> None: """Pannello P/L: confronto Conservativa vs Aggressiva sugli stessi slider.""" st.subheader("💰 P/L atteso — Conservativa vs Aggressiva") st.caption( "Stessi slider, due profili di sizing. **Conservativa** = la " "golden config attuale (`strategy.yaml`). **Aggressiva** = " "`strategy.aggressiva.yaml` con cap_per_trade 4×, max contratti " "4×, 2 posizioni concorrenti. Le regole §2-§9 sono identiche; " "cambiano SOLO le leve di sizing — quello che il P/L " "conservativo lascia sul tavolo." ) col_a, col_b, col_c, col_d = st.columns(4) capital = col_a.slider( "Capitale (USD)", 720, 50_000, value=10_000, step=100 ) spot = col_b.slider("Spot ETH (USD)", 1500, 6000, value=3000, step=100) win_rate = col_c.slider( "Win rate atteso", 0.50, 0.90, value=0.75, step=0.01, help=( "Senza filtri quant ≈ 0.65–0.70. CON filtri (dealer gamma>0, " "no macro, IV−RV>0, liquidation_*_risk≠high) sale a 0.75–0.80." ), ) trades_per_year = col_d.slider( "Trade / anno (post-filtri)", 8, 30, value=18, step=1, help="52 lunedì × probabilità di superare i filtri (30–50%).", ) cons_caps = _profile_caps(strategy_conservativa or strategy_main) aggr_caps = _profile_caps(strategy_aggressiva) cons = _compute_pl( cons_caps, capital=capital, spot=spot, win_rate=win_rate, trades_per_year=trades_per_year, ) aggr = _compute_pl( aggr_caps, capital=capital, spot=spot, win_rate=win_rate, trades_per_year=trades_per_year, ) col_cons, col_aggr = st.columns(2) with col_cons: _render_profile_card( "🛡️ Conservativa", cons_caps, cons, "_(golden config v1.0.0)_", ) with col_aggr: _render_profile_card( "🔥 Aggressiva", aggr_caps, aggr, "_(deroga §11, richiede paper trading)_", ) if aggr["annual_pl"] > 0 and cons["annual_pl"] > 0: ratio = aggr["annual_pl"] / cons["annual_pl"] st.success( f"Profilo aggressivo: P/L atteso ≈ **{ratio:.1f}× il " f"conservativo** ({aggr['apr']:+.1%} vs {cons['apr']:+.1%} " "APR). Drawdown atteso scala con lo stesso fattore." ) if win_rate < 0.72: st.error( "**Win rate sotto 0.72: entrambi i profili perdono soldi.** " "Selling vol nudo è strutturalmente neutro qui. L'edge della " "strategia sono i FILTRI (dealer gamma>0, no macro, " "liquidation≠high, bias chiaro) che alzano il win rate sopra " "il 0.75. Senza filtri attivi nessuno dei due profili è " "viable." ) # Sensibilità win-rate per il profilo aggressivo (più informativo) st.markdown("**Sensibilità al win rate** (profilo aggressivo)") sens_rows = [] for wr in (0.65, 0.70, 0.72, 0.75, 0.78, 0.80, 0.82): m_a = _compute_pl( aggr_caps, capital=capital, spot=spot, win_rate=wr, trades_per_year=trades_per_year, ) m_c = _compute_pl( cons_caps, capital=capital, spot=spot, win_rate=wr, trades_per_year=trades_per_year, ) sens_rows.append( { "Win rate": f"{wr:.0%}", "Conservativa P/L": f"{m_c['annual_pl']:+.0f} USD", "Conservativa APR": f"{m_c['apr']:+.1%}", "Aggressiva P/L": f"{m_a['annual_pl']:+.0f} USD", "Aggressiva APR": f"{m_a['apr']:+.1%}", } ) st.table(sens_rows) st.caption( "Costi: fee 0.03% notional × 2 leg, slippage 3% del credito " "(combo limit GTC al mid). Distribuzione esiti: profit-take = " "win_rate, time-stop ≈ 7%, altri-stop ≈ 3%, stop-loss = il resto. " "**Multi-asset (ETH+BTC) non è incluso nei numeri**: richiede " "modifiche di codice (single-asset attuale). Il moltiplicatore " "2× citato nel doc è la stima ex-ante di cosa otterresti DOPO." ) def render() -> None: st.title("📚 Strategia") st.caption( "Documento operativo che lega ogni regola del rule engine al " "dato osservabile da cui dipende. Il pannello live in alto mostra " "l'ultimo tick di `market_snapshots` confrontato con le soglie di " "`strategy.yaml`." ) db_path = _resolve_db() asset = st.selectbox("Asset", options=["ETH", "BTC"], index=0) records = load_market_snapshots(asset=asset, db_path=db_path, limit=1) def _try_load(name: str) -> object | None: for base in (Path("/app"), Path.cwd(), Path(__file__).resolve().parents[4]): path = base / name if path.is_file(): try: # `_profile_caps` legge `.sizing.*` direttamente sul # `StrategyConfig`, non sul wrapper `LoadedConfig`. return load_strategy(path).config except Exception as exc: st.warning( f"`{name}`: {type(exc).__name__}: {exc}" ) return None return None strategy = _try_load("strategy.yaml") strategy_conservativa = _try_load("strategy.conservativa.yaml") strategy_aggressiva = _try_load("strategy.aggressiva.yaml") st.divider() st.subheader("📡 Stato live dei gate di entry §2") if not records: st.info( "Nessuno snapshot disponibile per " f"`{asset}`. Il job `market_snapshot` (cron `*/15`) deve " "girare almeno una volta. Engine attivo? Controlla la pagina " "`📊 Status`." ) else: latest = records[0] st.caption( f"Ultimo tick: {humanize_dt(latest.timestamp)} · " f"asset {latest.asset} · " f"fetch_ok = {'✅' if latest.fetch_ok else '⚠️'}" ) if strategy is None: st.warning( "Senza `strategy.yaml` non posso valutare i gate; mostro " "solo i valori grezzi." ) st.json(latest.model_dump(mode="json")) else: rows = _build_gates(latest, strategy) _render_gates(rows) st.divider() _render_pl_panel(strategy, strategy_conservativa, strategy_aggressiva) st.divider() st.subheader("📖 Documento esteso") doc = _load_doc() if doc is None: st.error( "Documento `docs/13-strategia-spiegata.md` non trovato. In " "locale verifica il path; in container assicurati che il " "Dockerfile copi `docs/` in `/app/docs/`." ) else: st.markdown(doc, unsafe_allow_html=False) render()