Cerbero-Bite/tests/unit/test_backtest.py

"""TDD per :mod:`cerbero_bite.core.backtest`."""

from __future__ import annotations

from datetime import UTC, datetime, timedelta
from decimal import Decimal

import pytest

from cerbero_bite.config import StrategyConfig, golden_config
from cerbero_bite.core.backtest import (
    bs_put_delta,
    bs_put_price,
    daily_picks,
    estimate_credit_eth,
    find_strike_for_delta,
    normal_cdf,
    run_backtest,
    simulate_entry_filters,
)
from cerbero_bite.state.models import MarketSnapshotRecord


# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Black-Scholes helpers
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------


def test_normal_cdf_known_values() -> None:
    assert normal_cdf(0.0) == pytest.approx(0.5, abs=1e-6)
    assert normal_cdf(1.0) == pytest.approx(0.8413, abs=1e-3)
    assert normal_cdf(-1.0) == pytest.approx(0.1587, abs=1e-3)
    assert normal_cdf(2.0) == pytest.approx(0.9772, abs=1e-3)


def test_bs_put_price_atm_positive_and_less_than_strike() -> None:
    p = bs_put_price(spot=3000, strike=3000, t_years=18 / 365, sigma=0.50)
    assert p > 0
    assert p < 3000  # cap


def test_bs_put_price_far_otm_close_to_zero() -> None:
    p = bs_put_price(spot=3000, strike=1500, t_years=18 / 365, sigma=0.50)
    assert 0 <= p < 5  # essentially zero


def test_bs_put_delta_atm_around_minus_half() -> None:
    d = bs_put_delta(spot=3000, strike=3000, t_years=18 / 365, sigma=0.50)
    assert d == pytest.approx(-0.475, abs=0.05)


def test_bs_put_delta_far_otm_close_to_zero() -> None:
    d = bs_put_delta(spot=3000, strike=1500, t_years=18 / 365, sigma=0.50)
    assert -0.05 < d <= 0


def test_find_strike_for_delta_monotone() -> None:
    spot = 3000.0
    dvol = 50.0
    dte = 18
    s_010 = find_strike_for_delta(
        spot=spot, dvol_pct=dvol, dte_days=dte, target_delta_abs=0.10,
    )
    s_020 = find_strike_for_delta(
        spot=spot, dvol_pct=dvol, dte_days=dte, target_delta_abs=0.20,
    )
    # |Δ|=0.20 (più ITM) ⇒ strike più alto di |Δ|=0.10 (più OTM).
    assert s_020 > s_010
    # Verifica che il delta corrisponda a target ± tolleranza.
    achieved = abs(
        bs_put_delta(
            spot=spot, strike=s_020, t_years=dte / 365, sigma=dvol / 100,
        )
    )
    assert achieved == pytest.approx(0.20, abs=0.02)


def test_estimate_credit_returns_positive_credit_in_normal_regime() -> None:
    credit_eth, short_k, long_k = estimate_credit_eth(
        spot=3000, dvol_pct=50, dte_days=18, width_pct=0.04, delta_target_abs=0.12,
    )
    # Sanity: credit > 0, short_k < spot, long_k = short_k - 4%×spot
    assert credit_eth > 0
    assert short_k < 3000
    assert long_k < short_k
    assert short_k - long_k == pytest.approx(0.04 * 3000, abs=1.0)


# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Daily picks + entry filter simulation
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------


def _snap(
    *, ts: datetime,
    spot: float = 3000,
    dvol: float = 50,
    funding: float = 0.0,
    macro_d: int | None = None,
    asset: str = "ETH",
) -> MarketSnapshotRecord:
    return MarketSnapshotRecord(
        timestamp=ts,
        asset=asset,
        spot=Decimal(str(spot)),
        dvol=Decimal(str(dvol)),
        funding_perp_annualized=Decimal(str(funding)),
        funding_cross_annualized=Decimal("0"),
        dealer_net_gamma=Decimal("100"),
        liquidation_long_risk="low",
        liquidation_short_risk="low",
        macro_days_to_event=macro_d,
        fetch_ok=True,
    )


def test_daily_picks_extracts_one_per_calendar_day() -> None:
    day1 = datetime(2026, 5, 4, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
    day2 = datetime(2026, 5, 5, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)  # Tuesday: PICKED ora (crypto 24/7)
    snapshots = [
        _snap(ts=day1),
        _snap(ts=day1 + timedelta(minutes=15)),  # stesso giorno, deduplicato
        _snap(ts=day2),
    ]
    picks = daily_picks(snapshots)
    assert len(picks) == 2
    assert picks[0].timestamp == day1
    assert picks[1].timestamp == day2


def test_daily_picks_skips_other_hours() -> None:
    snapshots = [
        _snap(ts=datetime(2026, 5, 4, 13, 0, tzinfo=UTC)),  # 13:00 → skipped
        _snap(ts=datetime(2026, 5, 5, 15, 30, tzinfo=UTC)),  # 15:30 → skipped
    ]
    assert daily_picks(snapshots) == []


def test_daily_picks_filters_by_asset() -> None:
    day = datetime(2026, 5, 4, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
    snapshots = [
        _snap(ts=day, asset="BTC"),
        _snap(ts=day, asset="ETH"),
    ]
    picks = daily_picks(snapshots, asset="ETH")
    assert len(picks) == 1
    assert picks[0].snapshot.asset == "ETH"


def test_simulate_entry_filters_accepts_clean_snapshot(
) -> None:
    cfg: StrategyConfig = golden_config()
    monday = datetime(2026, 5, 4, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
    snap = _snap(ts=monday, dvol=50, funding=0.10)
    picks = [
        type("MP", (), {"timestamp": monday, "snapshot": snap})()  # type: ignore[arg-type]
    ]
    # Hack: build via real dataclass
    from cerbero_bite.core.backtest import DailyPick
    picks = [DailyPick(timestamp=monday, snapshot=snap)]
    results = simulate_entry_filters(picks, cfg, capital_usd=Decimal("1500"))
    assert len(results) == 1
    assert results[0].accepted is True


def test_simulate_entry_filters_rejects_dvol_out_of_band() -> None:
    cfg = golden_config()
    monday = datetime(2026, 5, 4, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
    snap = _snap(ts=monday, dvol=20, funding=0.10)  # below 35
    from cerbero_bite.core.backtest import DailyPick
    picks = [DailyPick(timestamp=monday, snapshot=snap)]
    results = simulate_entry_filters(picks, cfg, capital_usd=Decimal("1500"))
    assert results[0].accepted is False
    assert any("dvol" in r.lower() for r in results[0].reasons)


def test_simulate_entry_filters_skips_incomplete_snapshot() -> None:
    cfg = golden_config()
    monday = datetime(2026, 5, 4, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
    incomplete = MarketSnapshotRecord(
        timestamp=monday, asset="ETH", spot=Decimal("3000"),
        # dvol=None ⇒ skipped
        fetch_ok=False,
    )
    from cerbero_bite.core.backtest import DailyPick
    picks = [DailyPick(timestamp=monday, snapshot=incomplete)]
    results = simulate_entry_filters(picks, cfg, capital_usd=Decimal("1500"))
    assert results[0].accepted is False
    assert results[0].skipped_for_data is True


# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Full pipeline (sintetico)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------


def _synthetic_year_of_snapshots(
    *,
    n_weeks: int = 8,
    spot: float = 3000,
    dvol: float = 60,  # con skew_premium 1.5 ⇒ credit/width ≈ 35% (sopra soglia 30%)
    funding: float = 0.10,
) -> list[MarketSnapshotRecord]:
    """Genera N settimane di snapshot sintetici ETH a 4 tick/settimana."""
    rows: list[MarketSnapshotRecord] = []
    monday = datetime(2026, 5, 4, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
    for week in range(n_weeks):
        base = monday + timedelta(weeks=week)
        # Lunedì 14:00 è il pick
        rows.append(_snap(ts=base, spot=spot, dvol=dvol, funding=funding))
        # Tick intermedi che NON cadono alle 14:00:
        # offset +1h (=15:00) così vengono ignorati da `daily_picks`.
        for d in (2, 8, 14, 19):
            rows.append(
                _snap(
                    ts=base + timedelta(days=d, hours=1),
                    spot=spot * (1 + 0.005 * d),  # +0.5% al giorno
                    dvol=dvol - 1.5 * d,  # vol che scende lentamente
                    funding=funding,
                )
            )
    return rows


def test_run_backtest_produces_report_with_trades() -> None:
    # Per il test scaliamo il credit/width gate al 15%: il modello BS
    # senza skew completo sottostima i premi OTM rispetto al reale.
    # Vedi `estimate_credit_eth.skew_premium` docstring per dettagli.
    from cerbero_bite.config.schema import StructureConfig
    cfg = golden_config()
    cfg = cfg.model_copy(
        update={
            "structure": StructureConfig(
                **{
                    **cfg.structure.model_dump(),
                    "credit_to_width_ratio_min": Decimal("0.15"),
                }
            )
        }
    )
    snapshots = _synthetic_year_of_snapshots(n_weeks=4)
    report = run_backtest(snapshots, cfg, capital_usd=Decimal("1500"))
    # Sanity: 4 picks, almeno 1 trade chiuso
    assert report.n_picks == 4
    assert report.n_completed >= 1
    assert report.cumulative_pnl_usd != Decimal("0")
    # Bull-put + ETH al rialzo + DVOL che scende ⇒ atteso win
    assert report.n_winners >= 1


def test_run_backtest_handles_no_picks_gracefully() -> None:
    cfg = golden_config()
    # Solo tick infrasettimanali, niente Monday 14:00.
    monday = datetime(2026, 5, 4, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
    snapshots = [_snap(ts=monday + timedelta(hours=1))]
    report = run_backtest(snapshots, cfg, capital_usd=Decimal("1500"))
    assert report.n_picks == 0
    assert report.n_completed == 0
    assert report.cumulative_pnl_usd == Decimal("0")