29 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Adriano Dal Pastro b8aa00b883 fix(llm): inject system prompt into user message for OpusAgent
OpusAgent topic system_prompt is used for summarization context but
not enforced as a binding instruction to Claude. Prepend [SYSTEM]
block to the first message of each session so Claude sees the full
JSON schema and grammar specification.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-26 09:42:26 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro ba2c23e602 feat(llm): add session_id for retries and summarize for run tracking
HypothesisAgent now opens an OpusAgent session on first attempt and
reuses it for parse-error retries — Claude sees full conversation
context instead of re-stuffing the prompt. Sessions are closed after
propose() completes. All completions set summarize=true so topics
accumulate incremental summaries of GA activity.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-26 09:18:11 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 646c64dacd feat(llm): migrate from OpenRouter to OpusAgent
Replace OpenRouter (openai SDK) with OpusAgent REST API (httpx + polling).
LLMClient now creates topics per system prompt, submits async requests,
and polls for completion. Model tiers map to Claude model IDs
(opus-4-7, sonnet-4-6, haiku-4-5) configurable via env vars.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-26 09:09:54 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro a702b2090d chore(smoke): expose RUN_NAME via PYTHAGORAS_SMOKE_RUN_NAME env var 2026-05-20 15:19:13 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro c6bf0f31cc feat(prompt_library): v3.2 custom_indicators_spec — fix LLM parse rate on Pythagoras indicators 2026-05-20 10:00:31 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 68e0b009e9 feat(strategy_pythagoras): GA smoke-test runner (BTC+ETH dual run + invariance bonus) 2026-05-19 14:16:07 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 4baa1eca62 feat(strategy_pythagoras): NiceGUI dashboard with 4 tabs (Genomes/Patterns/Ratios/Invariance) 2026-05-19 14:09:26 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 035cd1dff3 feat(strategy_pythagoras): port frontend data layer + invariance/candle helpers 2026-05-19 14:00:33 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro b8bf0c186c feat(strategy_pythagoras): invariance bonus callback (BTC<->ETH corr_signal)
corr_signal: frazione di entries A con match in B entro +/-tolerance_bars
(default 36 barre = 3h su 5m TF, env GA_INVARIANCE_TOLERANCE_BARS).
apply_invariance_bonus: fitness * (1 + alpha * invariance_score), alpha=0.3
(env GA_INVARIANCE_ALPHA). Spec plan Pythagoras §4.

GA integration approach (Step 5 findings):
- multi_swarm_core.ga.fitness.compute_fitness e compute_combined_fitness
  NON espongono callback/hook per post-processing della fitness.
- orchestrator.run.run_phase1(...) -> str ritorna solo il run_id; le
  evaluations (incl. fitness scalare) vengono persistite via
  repo.save_evaluation dentro al loop GA (run.py:264-277).
- I winner sono recuperati dopo il run con repo.list_evaluations(run_id)
  e ri-ordinati per fitness (vedi pattern run.py:302-310 per WFA re-eval).
- Pattern (b) confermato: il runner Task 6.1 chiamera' run_phase1 due
  volte (BTC, ETH), poi per ogni coppia di evaluations matchera' i
  genome_id, calcolera' corr_signal sulle entries dei rispettivi
  backtests e applichera' apply_invariance_bonus per ri-rankare
  esternamente i winner. Nessuna modifica a multi_swarm_core necessaria
  in questo task.

Tests: 6/6 PASS (perfect alignment, no overlap, within tolerance, bonus
formula, alpha=0, zero entries).
2026-05-19 13:58:39 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro af68bc44b4 feat(strategy_pythagoras): port paper-trading backend (Portfolio, Executor, Repository) 2026-05-19 13:55:23 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 074ebe0379 feat(strategy_pythagoras): port DB schema from strategy_crypto 2026-05-19 13:53:08 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 7f2db19a7c feat(strategy_pythagoras): prompts.json with 7 Pythagoras-aligned cognitive styles 2026-05-19 13:51:32 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 369a77b5cf feat(strategy_pythagoras): implement candle_pattern, pythagorean_ratio, fractal_mirror + register in compiler 2026-05-19 13:38:40 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 2aa5646aeb feat(protocol): validate arity + semantics of 3 Pythagoras indicators 2026-05-19 13:29:16 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 6a9e2c28b1 feat(protocol): register 3 Pythagoras indicators in KNOWN_INDICATORS 2026-05-19 13:26:40 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 37558a34f5 feat(strategy_pythagoras): scaffold workspace member + register in uv 2026-05-19 13:26:01 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 14f476dd09 docs(strategy_pythagoras): spec + plan + summaries dei PDF
Base per l'esecuzione del sub-project strategy_pythagoras:
- docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-19-strategy-pythagoras-design.md (spec)
- docs/superpowers/plans/2026-05-19-strategy-pythagoras.md (14 task, 72 step TDD)
- src/strategy_pythagoras/Pythagoras/*.summary.md (riassunti numerici dei 2 PDF)
- src/strategy_pythagoras/Pythagoras/_extracted/*.txt (estrazione testo grezzo via pypdf)

I PDF stessi non vengono committati (vedi .gitignore).
2026-05-19 13:03:09 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 05c7b5e89e test(strategy_crypto): non hard-codare hash dei winner shippati
L'assert su btc_fb63e851.json/eth_facd6af85d5d.json era diventato
stale dopo i swap dei paper winner (commit 8b767da, 23b7273).
Verifica strutturale (almeno un btc_*.json e un eth_*.json) evita
il fail ad ogni futuro swap di winner.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 17:25:27 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 6655e425fa fix(paper): ETH 5m allineato al tick + hardening GUI/compose
Bug principale: in scripts/run_paper_trading.py il fetch usava
end = now.replace(minute=0,...), troncando sempre all'ora. ETH è
dichiarato timeframe=5m (commit 23b7273) ma di fatto veniva
valutato 1 volta ogni 60 min — 502 poll del run 39e027df hanno
prodotto solo 43 evaluazioni/asset, tutte a HH:00. Il commento
in load_assets segnala esplicitamente che a 1h la strategia
perde -33% su 7y: regressione vs backtest.

Fix: helper _align_end_to_timeframe(now, timeframe) snappa end
al boundary nativo dell'asset. Mappa 1m/5m/15m/30m/1h/4h/1d.
Test regression in src/strategy_crypto/tests con 9 casi.

Hardening accessorio incluso nello stesso commit:
- docker-compose.yml: state/ in RW per strategy-crypto-gui
  (SQLite WAL richiede SHM writable anche da reader).
- multi_swarm_core/dashboard/nicegui_app.py: ui.timer ora
  deactivate on_disconnect su 3 pagine (index/convergence/genomes)
  per evitare leak di timer dopo client disconnect.
- strategy_crypto/frontend/data.py: retry 5s su sqlite.connect
  per cold-start race quando GUI parte prima del paper writer.
- state/validation-hardened-001.json: output WFA tooling
  multi-fold del run phase1-hardened-001.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 17:04:15 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 23b7273e71 feat(paper): ETH a tick 5m + tooling per-year/per-tick analysis
scripts/run_paper_trading.py: AssetConfig ETH ora usa timeframe="5m" invece
del default 1h. Il winner c04dff7086 e' stato trovato dal GA su dati 5m
e a 1h la strategia perde:
- ETH @ 5m (native): +359.50% cum 7y, 77% winrate, max DD/yr 19%
- ETH @ 1h (precedente): -33.03% cum 7y, 67% winrate, max DD 74%
BTC resta a 1h (winner 238e4812 native a 1h, +104% 7y, Sharpe 2+ in 3 anni).

Nuovi script di analisi:
- scripts/yearly_strategies.py: breakdown per anno (2019-2025) di 4
  strategie su tick di discovery (trade/winrate/return/maxDD/Sharpe).
- scripts/multi_tick_strategies.py: confronto cross-tick (5m/15m/1h)
  per i 2 winner correnti. Documenta la divergenza tick-paper di ETH.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 22:10:38 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 9c871d1d86 feat(validation): WFA tooling + multi-fold results phase1-100 runs
Aggiunge 2 script di analisi per validare i top-K genomi cross-fold:

- scripts/analyze_btc_winners.py: per-trade dump (wins/losses/winrate/
  avg_win/avg_loss/return/maxDD/Sharpe) per ogni top-K × 4 fold
  expanding-window WFA. Usato per identificare i winner robusti vs
  i lucky-shot overfit.

- scripts/compare_winners.py: cross-run comparison di 5 winner
  candidate (BTC 1h + ETH 1h + BTC 5m + ETH 5m) sui medesimi 4 fold,
  con totali cumulativi.

Risultati WFA freezati:
- validation-btc-100-001.json: BTC 1h baseline (undertrading=10)
- validation-btc-100-001-thr3.json: BTC 1h con threshold=3 (rilassato
  per strategie ultra-selettive)
- validation-btc-100-5m-thr3.json: BTC 5m con threshold=3

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 21:48:55 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 8b767da5e7 feat(strategy): swap paper a 238e4812 (BTC) + c04dff7086 (ETH) — phase1-100 winners
Risultati phase1-{btc,eth}-100-001 (1h) + phase1-{btc,eth}-100-5m-001 (5m, 770K bars)
con 100-agent GA × 10 generazioni × fitness v2 hardened + WFA 0.7 split.

BTC (238e4812, meteorologist Gen 7 winner del run 1h):
- IS f=0.2604, Sharpe=0.437, 25 trades
- OOS: f=0.4184, Sharpe=1.296, +22.15% return fold 3, DD 7.4%
- WFA 4-fold: cum_ret +31.65%, 58.6% winrate, 2 fold Sharpe 2+

ETH (c04dff7086, mean-reversion oversold del run 5m):
- IS f=0.1881, OOS f=0.1789 (no overfit), Sharpe_OOS=0.171
- WFA 4-fold: cum_ret +23.83%, 77.8% winrate, 2 fold @ 100% winrate
- Primo ETH winner che sopravvive hard-kill v2 in tutta la storia progetto

Archive: btc_9cf506b8.json (precedente winner hardened-001), eth_facd6af85d5d.json.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 21:48:42 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 1c0058ec3b feat(strategy): swap BTC paper strategy a 9cf506b8 (hardened-001 robust winner)
Sostituisce btc_fb63e851 (in produzione dal 13 maggio, net +$9.9k su 7y BTC,
Sharpe medio -0.20) con btc_9cf506b8, vincitore del run phase1-hardened-001
(K=50 G=15 7y, fitness-v2 con hard-kill su fees_eat_alpha + negative_net_pnl).

Performance comparate su 7y BTC continui:
- btc_fb63e851:   Net +$9,951  Sharpe medio -0.20  4/8 anni positivi
- btc_9cf506b8:   Net +$30,538 Sharpe medio +0.31  5/8 anni positivi
                  Best year 2021: +$18,938 (vs prod +$6,835)
                  Best Sharpe annuale: 2023 +1.27 (vs prod 2024 +1.16)
                  Zero adversarial findings su 7y continui.

Performance cross-asset (test su ETH 6.8y):
- btc_fb63e851 su ETH: -$120 (pseudo-flat, nessun segnale)
- btc_9cf506b8 su ETH: +$2,059 (4/7 anni positivi)
La strategia generalizza out-of-asset, indicatore di robustezza non-ETH-overfit.

DSL: physicist style, lookback 150 bar (~6 giorni). Triple-AND condition su
realized_vol + atr_pct + sma_pct per entry (long o short). Exit su sma_pct=0
o vol collasso (<0.1%). Selettivo: 502 trade in 7y = 1.4 trade/giorno medio.

btc_fb63e851 archiviato in strategies/archive/ per consultazione futura.
Il glob loader `btc_*.json` e' non-ricorsivo, quindi archive/ non viene
caricato automaticamente.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 13:21:37 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 220e510d5e fix(orchestrator): escludi prompt_library dal config_dict JSON
PromptLibrary e' un frozen dataclass non JSON-serializable. Quando passata in
cfg.prompt_library e poi spread via **cfg.__dict__ in config_dict, faceva
fallire repo.create_run() con TypeError al primo run dopo refactor.

Fix: filtra cfg.__dict__ escludendo prompt_library, e salva separatamente la
lista degli stili (prompt_library_styles) per reproducibility.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 13:21:08 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 9742df3a1f fix(fitness): hardening anti-overfit post-7y incident — 3 correzioni
Incident: extended run elite (Sharpe IS 1.93) net-negativo su 7y
continuous (fees=101% del gross). Multi-fold validation NON sufficiente:
ogni fold restarta equity, mascherando accumulo fees compound.

Correzioni:

1) Default --start esteso a 2018-09-01 (7.3 anni)
   - Copre bear 2018-19, halving 2020, COVID, ATH 2021, winter 2022,
     ETF rally 2024, regime corrente.
   - Una finestra corta (2y) lasciava il GA libero di overfit single-regime.

2) fees_eat_alpha promosso a hard-kill in fitness v2
   - Da soft-penalty 0.4x a hard-kill 0 fitness.
   - Una strategia con fees > 50% del gross non e' recuperabile via
     selection: il prodotto del GA non puo' deployare con quel cost burden.

3) Nuovo finding negative_net_pnl (HIGH, hard-kill)
   - Fires quando sum(trade.net_pnl) < 0 sul training window.
   - Cattura: gross negativo (no edge direzionale) E gross positivo ma
     fees > gross (edge insufficiente).
   - Sintesi del net-after-fees su finestra continua come "deal-breaker"
     non negoziabile via soft penalty.

CLI:
- --fitness-hard-kill <csv> per override esplicito.
- Default v2: no_trades,degenerate,undertrading,fees_eat_alpha,negative_net_pnl.

Test:
- 252 pass (251 + 1 nuovo: test_negative_net_pnl_fires_on_negative_gross).
- Test e2e WFA aggiornato: passa fitness_hard_kill_findings=('no_trades',)
  perche' il fixture sintetico non produce strategie profittevoli.
- test_no_findings_on_reasonable_strategy rinominato:
  test_rsi_mean_reversion_loses_money_on_synthetic_data (riflette
  semantica reale: RSI mean-rev su synthetic ohlcv ha net negativo).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 11:07:40 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 21b5cf1eae feat(validation): add validation data for phase1-extended-001 with detailed results 2026-05-16 10:55:35 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro a29748e3d8 perf(backtest): vectorize engine + parallel LLM propose + multi-fold validation tool
- backtest/engine.py: state machine numpy invece di pd.iterrows()
  - 16.8x speedup su 2y (470ms -> 28ms), 11.3x su 7y (1744ms -> 154ms)
  - 7 parity test parametrici vs reference iterrows assicurano equivalenza
- orchestrator/run.py + run_phase1.py: --llm-concurrency N
  - ThreadPoolExecutor parallelizza hypothesis_agent.propose() per generazione
  - 5-8x speedup wall time GA loop (OpenRouter qwen-2.5 regge 6-10 concorrenti)
  - default 1 = backward-compat sequenziale
- scripts/validate_run.py: validation multi-fold standalone
  - prende run_id + top-K + N-folds expanding-window su dataset esteso (7y)
  - rivela overfitter mascherati da fitness IS alta (vedi
    phase1-extended-001: elite IS Sharpe 1.93 collassa OOS a -1.00)
  - ranking per robust_score = min(fitness_oos) su tutti i fold

Test 250/250 pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 10:53:48 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro fa11cca2bc docs(readme): allinea a stato finale post-refactor sessione 2026-05-15
Aggiornato per riflettere i 12 commit di refactor della sessione:

  - Layout: 3 servizi Docker (strategy-crypto-paper + strategy-crypto-gui
    + multi-swarm-core-gui), GUI split (core GA / strategy paper)
  - Test: 238 attesi (era 186)
  - Architettura prompt: SYSTEM compositor v3.2 documentato (9 sezioni
    iniettate da scaffold core + contenuto strategy via prompts.json)
  - Grammar: 8 indicatori (5 base + 3 _pct: atr_pct, sma_pct, macd_pct)
  - Input MarketSummary: 14 metriche (5 base + 4 regime + 5 geometria)
  - 7 stili cognitive in prompts.json (era 6, +military_strategist e
    psychologist), con focus_metrics + lookback consigliato + archetipo
  - Deploy: 2 URL distinti (/multi_swarm_core_gui + /strategy_crypto_gui),
    Traefik replacepathregex (NON stripprefix per evitare doppio root_path)
  - Note operative: chown 1000:1000 anche per strategies/ post git mv
  - 3 regression guard test ASCII/archetype/lookback documentati

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 22:05:06 +00:00
Adriano Dal Pastro 6526c6e6e3 refactor(prompts): strategy_crypto v3.2 — consolidamento + 3 invariant tests
Patch di consolidamento post-diagnosi v3.1, divisa in REGRESSIONI ripristinate
+ MIGLIORAMENTI opportunistici + INVARIANTI permanenti.

Regressioni v3.0 -> v3.1 ripristinate:
  1. ASCII-strict: caratteri circa-uguale (U+2248) sostituiti con 'vicino a' in 3 stili
     (historian, engineer, psychologist). Critico per encoding robustness.
  2. 'Archetipo dominante: <metafora>': chiusa identitaria reintrodotta in
     tutte le 7 directive. Ancora semantica resistente a mutate_prompt_llm.
  3. 'Lookback consigliato: X-Y barre': hint range differenziato per stile
     (physicist 150-300, biologist 80-200, historian 200-500, meteorologist
     50-150, engineer 60-120, military 100-200, psychologist 50-120) per
     orientare il parametro evoluto lookback_window del genoma.

Miglioramenti opportunistici:
  4. Voce attiva rinforzata: +verbi generativi ('costruisci', 'combina',
     'cattura', 'diagnostica', 'preferisci') in tutte le directive
  5. anti_patterns 5 -> 7 voci: aggiunti (6) chattering crossover same-type
     same-lookback, (7) soglie hard senza isteresi entry/exit
  6. output_priorities 4 -> 5 voci: aggiunta in cima (#1) 'coerenza con
     lente cognitiva' (fondamento del design swarm)
  7. domain_warnings: +frase 'seasonality > 0 non significa significativa, gate a 0.05'
  8. NEW _design_invariants metadata: documenta gli invarianti che future
     versioni DEVONO preservare (utile per chi edita + mutate_prompt_llm)

NEW invariant tests (regression guards permanenti):
  - test_strategy_crypto_directives_ascii_safe
  - test_strategy_crypto_directives_have_archetype_marker
  - test_strategy_crypto_directives_have_lookback_hint

Statistiche v3.2:
  - directive: 800-950 char (era 545-614 in v3.1, troppo snellite)
  - physicist 890, biologist 867, historian 887, meteorologist 884,
    engineer 904, military_strategist 898, psychologist 909

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 21:54:13 +00:00
73 changed files with 11451 additions and 508 deletions
+3
View File
@@ -47,3 +47,6 @@ logs/
build/ build/
dist/ dist/
*.egg *.egg
# Pythagoras source PDFs (local only, not tracked)
src/strategy_pythagoras/Pythagoras/*.pdf
+115 -35
View File
@@ -12,23 +12,23 @@ git clone ssh://git@git.tielogic.xyz:222/Adriano/Multi_Swarm_Coevolutive.git
## Layout monorepo (uv workspace) ## Layout monorepo (uv workspace)
Il repo è un **workspace uv** con due member packages indipendenti: Il repo è un **workspace uv** con due member packages indipendenti, principio "**core = framework, strategy = contenuto**":
``` ```
multi_swarm_coevolutive/ repo root (workspace coordinator) multi_swarm_coevolutive/ repo root (workspace coordinator)
├── pyproject.toml workspace + dev deps + ruff/mypy/pytest ├── pyproject.toml workspace + dev deps + ruff/mypy/pytest
├── docker-compose.yml strategy-crypto-paper + strategy-crypto-gui ├── docker-compose.yml 3 servizi su immagine condivisa
├── Dockerfile immagine multi-swarm-coevolutive:dev ├── Dockerfile immagine multi-swarm-coevolutive:dev
├── uv.lock lock unico del workspace ├── uv.lock lock unico del workspace
├── data/, series/, state/ cache OHLCV + DB (runtime, gitignored) ├── data/, series/, state/ cache OHLCV + DB (runtime, gitignored)
├── scripts/ CLI entrypoints (run_phase1, run_paper_trading, ...) ├── scripts/ CLI entrypoints (run_phase1, run_paper_trading, ...)
└── src/ └── src/
├── multi_swarm_core/ WORKSPACE MEMBER (wheel: multi-swarm-core) ├── multi_swarm_core/ WORKSPACE MEMBER (wheel: multi-swarm-core)
│ ├── pyproject.toml deps: pandas, numpy, openai, pydantic, ... │ ├── pyproject.toml core deps (pandas, numpy, openai, pydantic, nicegui, ...)
│ ├── multi_swarm_core/ GA + genome + protocol + backtest + cerbero + │ ├── multi_swarm_core/ GA + genome + protocol + backtest + cerbero +
│ │ data + llm + agents + ga + orchestrator + │ │ data + llm + agents + ga + orchestrator +
│ │ metrics + persistence + config │ │ metrics + persistence + config + dashboard (GA-only)
│ ├── tests/ unit + integration (182 test) │ ├── tests/ unit + integration
│ └── docs/ design/ + decisions/ + reports/ │ └── docs/ design/ + decisions/ + reports/
└── strategy_crypto/ WORKSPACE MEMBER (wheel: strategy-crypto) └── strategy_crypto/ WORKSPACE MEMBER (wheel: strategy-crypto)
@@ -36,27 +36,73 @@ multi_swarm_coevolutive/ repo root (workspace coordinator)
├── README.md overview strategia + pattern per nuove strategie ├── README.md overview strategia + pattern per nuove strategie
├── strategy_crypto/ ├── strategy_crypto/
│ ├── backend/ paper-trading (executor, portfolio, persistence, schema) │ ├── backend/ paper-trading (executor, portfolio, persistence, schema)
│ ├── frontend/ NiceGUI dashboard dual-DB │ ├── frontend/ NiceGUI paper-only dashboard
── strategies/ JSON freezate (btc_*.json, eth_*.json) ── strategies/ JSON freezate (btc_*.json, eth_*.json)
└── tests/ smoke regression (import + json + schema) │ └── prompts.json v3.2: agent_role/pattern_guidance/instruction/
│ domain_warnings/anti_patterns/output_priorities +
│ 7 stili cognitive (directive + focus_metrics)
└── tests/ smoke regression
``` ```
**DB separati per dominio:** `state/runs.db` (GA core universale) + `state/strategy_crypto.db` (paper della strategia crypto). Pattern scala a N strategie senza naming collision. **DB separati per dominio:** `state/runs.db` (GA core universale) + `state/strategy_crypto.db` (paper della strategia crypto). Pattern scala a N strategie senza naming collision.
**Pattern N strategie future:** aggiungere `src/strategy_<asset>/` con lo stesso scheletro (`backend/`, `frontend/`, `strategies/`, `tests/`), DB dedicato `state/strategy_<asset>.db`, servizi Docker `strategy-<asset>-paper` + `strategy-<asset>-gui`, GUI su `/strategy_<asset>_gui`. **Pattern N strategie future:** aggiungere `src/strategy_<asset>/` con stesso scheletro (`backend/`, `frontend/`, `strategies/`, `tests/`, `prompts.json`), DB dedicato `state/strategy_<asset>.db`, servizi Docker `strategy-<asset>-paper` + `strategy-<asset>-gui`, GUI su `/strategy_<asset>_gui`. **Zero modifiche al core** richieste.
## Architettura prompt (v3.2)
**Compositor**: il SYSTEM prompt al LLM viene COMPOSTO at-runtime da scaffold core + contenuto strategy:
```
[1] agent_role ← strategy (prompts.json — chi è l'agente)
[2] cognitive_style + directive ← genome (evoluti dal GA)
[3] GRAMMAR_SPEC ← core scaffold (operatori, indicatori, units rules)
[4] pattern_guidance ← strategy (forme di curva astratte, no indicatori prescritti)
[5] domain_warnings ← strategy (es. "crypto trada 24/7, NON inferire funding rate")
[6] CONSTRAINTS ← core scaffold (validator semantics)
[7] anti_patterns ← strategy (7 voci: no >4 AND, no chattering, isteresi, ecc.)
[8] output_priorities ← strategy (5 voci, #1 coerenza con lente cognitiva)
[9] EXAMPLE ← core scaffold
```
**Input USER (calcolato da `build_market_summary`):**
- Base (5): mean, std, skew, kurt, vol_regime
- Regime recente rolling 500 (6): autocorr_lag1 (recent + baseline), hurst, vol_percentile, seasonality (hour + dow)
- Geometria & frattali (7): efficiency_ratio (Kaufman), tail_index (left + right Hill), structural_uptrend (HH/HL), compression, spectral_entropy, dominant_cycle (gated)
- Feature accessibili dal genome + lookback_window
- **Focus per la tua lente**: blocco style-aware (4 metriche prioritarie da `focus_metrics` di prompts.json)
- Instruction finale (da strategy)
**Grammar protocol JSON (8 indicatori):**
| Indicatore | Output | Range |
|------------|--------|-------|
| `sma(length)` | media mobile | unità prezzo |
| `sma_pct(length)` | (close-sma)/sma | ±0.1 frazione |
| `rsi(length)` | oscillator | 0-100 |
| `atr(length)` | true range | unità prezzo |
| `atr_pct(length)` | atr/close | 0-0.1 frazione |
| `realized_vol(window)` | std returns | 0-0.1 frazione |
| `macd(fast,slow,signal)` | momentum | unità prezzo |
| `macd_pct(...)` | macd/close | ±0.02 frazione |
**7 stili cognitive** (in `prompts.json`, editable): physicist, biologist, historian, meteorologist, engineer, military_strategist, psychologist. Ognuno con directive 800-950 char, ASCII-strict, archetipo dominante + lookback consigliato + 4 focus_metrics.
## Stato del progetto ## Stato del progetto
**Phase 3 (paper-trading forward-test) in corso** dal 13 maggio 2026 su VPS. Runner `scripts/run_paper_trading.py` long-running in Docker, dashboard NiceGUI su `https://swarm.tielogic.xyz/strategy_crypto_gui/`. Due strategie freezate: **Phase 3 (paper-trading forward-test) in corso** dal 13 maggio 2026 su VPS. Runner `scripts/run_paper_trading.py` long-running in Docker, dashboard NiceGUI su `https://swarm.tielogic.xyz/strategy_crypto_gui/`. Due strategie freezate in `src/strategy_crypto/strategy_crypto/strategies/`:
- `strategy_crypto/strategies/btc_fb63e851.json` — BTC-PERPETUAL, RSI estremi + ATR vs SMA + filtro orario 9-17 (Sharpe OOS +0,26 su 7,33 anni). - `btc_fb63e851.json` — BTC-PERPETUAL, RSI estremi + ATR vs SMA + filtro orario 9-17 (Sharpe OOS +0,26 su 7,33 anni).
- `strategy_crypto/strategies/eth_facd6af85d5d.json` — ETH-PERPETUAL, regime-based (Sharpe OOS +0,19 su 6,75 anni). - `eth_facd6af85d5d.json` — ETH-PERPETUAL, regime-based (con `atr_pct` post-fix bug unità).
Phase 1 → 2.7 chiuse (30 run GA, $3.74 cumulato LLM). Phase 1 → 2.7 chiuse (30 run GA, $3.74 cumulato LLM). Sessione refactor 15 maggio 2026:
- Split repo invertito, monorepo unificato come uv workspace
- Family `*_pct` completa (atr_pct, sma_pct, macd_pct) per fix bug unità
- Dashboard split: core (GA) vs strategy (paper)
- Prompt architecture compositor + prompts.json v3.2 (vedi decision log)
- [**Stato progetto e roadmap (14 maggio 2026)**](src/multi_swarm_core/docs/reports/2026-05-14-stato-progetto-e-roadmap.md) — riepilogo fasi, decisioni, caveat, roadmap. Documenti:
- Decision log: [`src/multi_swarm_core/docs/decisions/`](src/multi_swarm_core/docs/decisions/) (gate Phase 1, scelta nemotron). - [**Stato progetto e roadmap (14 maggio 2026)**](src/multi_swarm_core/docs/reports/2026-05-14-stato-progetto-e-roadmap.md)
- Design docs concettuali: [`src/multi_swarm_core/docs/design/`](src/multi_swarm_core/docs/design/). - Decision log: [`src/multi_swarm_core/docs/decisions/`](src/multi_swarm_core/docs/decisions/) (gate Phase 1, nemotron, atr_pct fix)
- Design docs concettuali: [`src/multi_swarm_core/docs/design/`](src/multi_swarm_core/docs/design/)
Stack: Python 3.13, uv workspace, hatchling, pytest+pytest-mock+responses, openai SDK (verso OpenRouter), requests+tenacity, pandas+numpy+scipy, sqlmodel+sqlite, nicegui+plotly, yfinance. Stack: Python 3.13, uv workspace, hatchling, pytest+pytest-mock+responses, openai SDK (verso OpenRouter), requests+tenacity, pandas+numpy+scipy, sqlmodel+sqlite, nicegui+plotly, yfinance.
@@ -65,7 +111,7 @@ Stack: Python 3.13, uv workspace, hatchling, pytest+pytest-mock+responses, opena
```bash ```bash
uv sync # installa entrambi i workspace member come editable uv sync # installa entrambi i workspace member come editable
cp .env.example .env # compila CERBERO_*_TOKEN e OPENROUTER_API_KEY cp .env.example .env # compila CERBERO_*_TOKEN e OPENROUTER_API_KEY
uv run pytest # 186 test attesi (182 core + 4 smoke strategy_crypto) uv run pytest # 252 test attesi (248 core + 4 smoke strategy_crypto)
``` ```
### Variabili .env richieste ### Variabili .env richieste
@@ -84,10 +130,9 @@ OPENROUTER_API_KEY=<sk-or-v1-...>
GA_DB_PATH=./state/runs.db GA_DB_PATH=./state/runs.db
STRATEGY_CRYPTO_DB_PATH=./state/strategy_crypto.db STRATEGY_CRYPTO_DB_PATH=./state/strategy_crypto.db
# Deploy Docker # Deploy Docker — DASHBOARD_ROOT_PATH ora per-servizio (vedi docker-compose.yml)
DOMAIN_NAME=tielogic.xyz DOMAIN_NAME=tielogic.xyz
SWARM_DASHBOARD_PORT=8080 SWARM_DASHBOARD_PORT=8080
DASHBOARD_ROOT_PATH=/strategy_crypto_gui # subpath traefik per la dashboard
``` ```
Backcompat: `DB_PATH` legacy continua a funzionare come alias di `GA_DB_PATH`. Backcompat: `DB_PATH` legacy continua a funzionare come alias di `GA_DB_PATH`.
@@ -105,14 +150,27 @@ uv run mypy src/ scripts/
# Smoke run (MockLLM + OHLCV sintetico, no API calls) # Smoke run (MockLLM + OHLCV sintetico, no API calls)
uv run python scripts/smoke_run.py uv run python scripts/smoke_run.py
# Run reale Phase 1/2 (Cerbero + OpenRouter, ~$0.07 per run K=20 10gen) # Run reale Phase 1/2 (Cerbero + OpenRouter, ~$0.15-0.25 per run K=20 10gen,
# ~$0.40-0.55 per run esteso K=40 20gen con WFA OOS).
# Default --start ora 2018-09-01 (7.3y, copre bear+halving+covid+ATH+winter+ETF).
uv run python scripts/run_phase1.py \ uv run python scripts/run_phase1.py \
--name run-XXX \ --name run-XXX \
--exchange deribit --symbol BTC-PERPETUAL --timeframe 1h \ --exchange deribit --symbol BTC-PERPETUAL --timeframe 1h \
--start 2024-01-01T00:00:00+00:00 \
--end 2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00 \
--population-size 20 --n-generations 10 \ --population-size 20 --n-generations 10 \
--prompt-mutation-weight 0.30 --fitness-v2 --prompt-mutation-weight 0.30 --fitness-v2 \
--llm-concurrency 8 # 5-8x speedup wall time (default 1)
# fitness-v2 hardened: hard-kill su {no_trades, degenerate, undertrading,
# fees_eat_alpha, negative_net_pnl}. Override via --fitness-hard-kill CSV.
# Default --prompt-library: importlib.resources del package strategy_crypto/prompts.json
# Multi-fold validation di un run esistente (anti-overfit, 7y expanding-window)
uv run python scripts/validate_run.py \
--run-id <run_id> \
--top-k 10 --n-folds 4 --train-ratio 0.5 \
--start 2018-09-01T00:00:00+00:00 --end 2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00 \
--fitness-v2 \
--output-json state/validation-XXX.json
# Ranking per "robust_score" = min(fitness_oos) su tutti i fold.
# Backtest standalone di una strategia JSON # Backtest standalone di una strategia JSON
uv run python scripts/backtest_strategy.py \ uv run python scripts/backtest_strategy.py \
@@ -123,32 +181,50 @@ uv run python scripts/backtest_strategy.py \
uv run python scripts/run_paper_trading.py \ uv run python scripts/run_paper_trading.py \
--name phase3-papertrade-XXX \ --name phase3-papertrade-XXX \
--initial-capital 1000 --poll-seconds 300 --initial-capital 1000 --poll-seconds 300
# Default --strategies-dir: importlib.resources del package strategy_crypto
# Dashboard NiceGUI locale # Dashboard NiceGUI locale (2 distinte)
uv run python -m strategy_crypto.frontend.nicegui_app uv run python -m multi_swarm_core.dashboard.nicegui_app # GA core (/, /convergence, /genomes)
# → http://localhost:8080 (env SWARM_DASHBOARD_PORT) uv run python -m strategy_crypto.frontend.nicegui_app # Strategy crypto (/ paper)
``` ```
## Dashboard ## Performance & Validation
NiceGUI dashboard (dark palette) — **dual-DB reader** (GA + paper): **Backtest engine vettorializzato** (`backtest/engine.py`): rimosso il loop `pd.iterrows()` a favore di state machine numpy. Speedup misurati:
| Dataset | Before (iterrows) | After (vectorized) | Speedup |
|---------|-------------------|--------------------|---------|
| 2 anni (17545 bar) | 470 ms | **28 ms** | **16.8×** |
| 7 anni (64297 bar) | 1744 ms | **154 ms** | **11.3×** |
Equivalenza numerica garantita: 5 parity test parametrici vs. reference implementation legacy (`test_backtest_engine_vectorized.py`).
**Parallel propose LLM** (`orchestrator/run.py`): `--llm-concurrency N` lancia N chiamate `hypothesis_agent.propose()` concorrenti per generazione tramite `ThreadPoolExecutor`. OpenRouter qwen-2.5 regge 6-10 concorrenti senza rate-limit. Default 1 = backward-compat.
**Multi-fold validation tool** (`scripts/validate_run.py`): qualunque run completato puo' essere rivalutato post-hoc su N fold expanding-window di un dataset esteso (tipicamente 7 anni). Vital per evitare il single-hold-out overfit: il GA puo' selezionare un genome con `fitness_is` alta che collassa OOS (osservato su `phase1-extended-001`: elite IS Sharpe 1.93, OOS Sharpe -1.00). Ranking finale per `robust_score = min(fitness_oos)`. Output JSON con per-fold breakdown + aggregati mean/min/std.
## Dashboard (split core + strategy)
Due NiceGUI dashboard distinte (dark palette, palette neon):
**Core GA**`multi_swarm_core.dashboard.nicegui_app``https://swarm.tielogic.xyz/multi_swarm_core_gui/`:
- **Overview** (`/`): lista runs GA, costo cumulato, metriche aggregate evaluations. - **Overview** (`/`): lista runs GA, costo cumulato, metriche aggregate evaluations.
- **GA Convergence** (`/convergence`): fitness median/max/p90 per generazione + entropy. - **GA Convergence** (`/convergence`): fitness median/max/p90 per generazione + entropy.
- **Genomes** (`/genomes`): top-K ordinati per fitness, ispezione system_prompt + JSON strategy. - **Genomes** (`/genomes`): top-K ordinati per fitness, ispezione system_prompt + JSON strategy.
- **Paper** (`/paper`): forward-test live con equity curve, posizioni aperte, trade list, tick log.
In produzione su `https://swarm.tielogic.xyz/strategy_crypto_gui/` (subpath gestito via `DASHBOARD_ROOT_PATH` + Traefik PathPrefix). La root del dominio resta libera per future GUI di altre strategie. **Strategy crypto**`strategy_crypto.frontend.nicegui_app``https://swarm.tielogic.xyz/strategy_crypto_gui/`:
- **Paper** (`/`): forward-test live con equity curve, posizioni aperte, trade list, tick log.
In produzione subpath gestiti via `DASHBOARD_ROOT_PATH` (per-servizio) + Traefik `replacepathregex` (NB: NON `stripprefix`, vedi sezione Deploy). La root del dominio resta libera per future GUI di altre strategie.
## Deploy ## Deploy
`docker-compose.yml` definisce due servizi su immagine `multi-swarm-coevolutive:dev`: `docker-compose.yml` definisce 3 servizi su immagine condivisa `multi-swarm-coevolutive:dev`:
- **`strategy-crypto-paper`** — runner `scripts/run_paper_trading.py` long-running. - **`strategy-crypto-paper`** — runner `scripts/run_paper_trading.py` long-running.
- **`strategy-crypto-gui`** — NiceGUI dashboard dietro Traefik su `https://swarm.${DOMAIN_NAME}/strategy_crypto_gui/`. - **`strategy-crypto-gui`** — NiceGUI paper dashboard su `https://swarm.${DOMAIN_NAME}/strategy_crypto_gui/`.
- **`multi-swarm-core-gui`** — NiceGUI GA dashboard su `https://swarm.${DOMAIN_NAME}/multi_swarm_core_gui/`.
Persistenza via bind mount: `./data/`, `./series/`, `./state/`. Le strategie JSON sono bind-mounted in read-only dal package: `./src/strategy_crypto/strategy_crypto/strategies/`. Persistenza via bind mount: `./data/`, `./series/`, `./state/`. Strategie JSON bind-mounted in read-only dal package: `./src/strategy_crypto/strategy_crypto/strategies/`.
```bash ```bash
docker compose up -d --build docker compose up -d --build
@@ -158,12 +234,16 @@ docker compose ps
Note operative: Note operative:
- Le bind-mount dir devono essere `chown 1000:1000` (uid utente `app` nel container). - Bind-mount dir devono essere `chown 1000:1000` (uid utente `app` nel container). **Anche `src/strategy_crypto/strategy_crypto/strategies/`** (creata da `git mv`, default `root:root`).
- Override del command paper via env (`PAPER_RUN_NAME`, `PAPER_INITIAL_CAPITAL`, ecc.). - Override del command paper via env (`PAPER_RUN_NAME`, `PAPER_INITIAL_CAPITAL`, ecc.).
- `SWARM_DASHBOARD_PORT` controlla la porta interna del container (Traefik fa il TLS). - `SWARM_DASHBOARD_PORT` controlla la porta interna del container (Traefik fa il TLS).
- **Traefik subpath**: usa `replacepathregex` middleware (NON `stripprefix`) per evitare doppio root_path (uvicorn legge `X-Forwarded-Prefix` da stripprefix + applica `root_path` di NiceGUI = doppio prefix). Vedi commit `436613b`.
- Dopo cambio label Traefik: `docker restart traefik-traefik-1` per forzare refresh discovery.
## Sviluppo ## Sviluppo
Conventional commits con prefix `feat:` `fix:` `chore:` `docs:` `refactor:` `test:`. Body italiano. Footer `Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>` su ogni commit collaborativo. Conventional commits con prefix `feat:` `fix:` `chore:` `docs:` `refactor:` `test:`. Body italiano. Footer `Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>` su ogni commit collaborativo.
Branch attuale: `main`. Workspace single-repo, monorepo unificato dal 15 maggio 2026 (split temporaneo monorepo→figlio invertito, vedi tag `v0.1.0-pre-split` come bookmark). Branch attuale: `main`. Workspace single-repo, monorepo unificato dal 15 maggio 2026 (split temporaneo monorepo→figlio invertito, vedi tag `v0.1.0-pre-split` come bookmark).
**Modificare il prompt LLM** senza toccare codice: edita `src/strategy_crypto/strategy_crypto/prompts.json`. Schema documentato in `_design_invariants` del JSON stesso. I 3 regression guard test (`test_strategy_crypto_directives_ascii_safe`, `..._have_archetype_marker`, `..._have_lookback_hint`) bloccano regressioni accidentali sulle invarianti di design.
+3 -3
View File
@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@
# ./state contiene runs.db (GA) + strategy_crypto.db (paper) + WAL/SHM # ./state contiene runs.db (GA) + strategy_crypto.db (paper) + WAL/SHM
# ./src/strategy_crypto/strategy_crypto/strategies JSON freezate (ro) # ./src/strategy_crypto/strategy_crypto/strategies JSON freezate (ro)
# #
# Secrets (token Cerbero + OpenRouter): caricati da .env via env_file. # Secrets (token Cerbero + OpusAgent): caricati da .env via env_file.
networks: networks:
traefik: traefik:
@@ -88,8 +88,8 @@ services:
<<: *swarm-env <<: *swarm-env
DASHBOARD_ROOT_PATH: /strategy_crypto_gui DASHBOARD_ROOT_PATH: /strategy_crypto_gui
volumes: volumes:
# Dashboard legge solo strategy_crypto.db: state/ in read-only (WAL: vedi nota) # RW richiesto: SQLite WAL mode richiede write-access dal reader per SHM.
- ./state:/app/state:ro - ./state:/app/state
entrypoint: entrypoint:
- python - python
- -m - -m
File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff
@@ -0,0 +1,343 @@
# strategy_pythagoras — Design
**Data:** 2026-05-19
**Autore design:** Adriano Dal Pastro (con Claude/brainstorming)
**Stato:** Design approvato per parti 1-4, in attesa di review utente sulla spec consolidata
**Audience:** implementatori (Claude executor o umano)
## 0. Riassunto esecutivo
Nuovo workspace member `strategy_pythagoras` parallelo a `strategy_crypto`. Replica il pattern coevolutivo GA del monorepo applicato a un dominio diverso: la **scoperta di pattern frattali ricorrenti** sui mercati crypto secondo il framework Pythagoras-Malanga (Fourier + frattali + geometria Evideon), descritto nei due PDF in `src/strategy_pythagoras/Pythagoras/`.
**Non cambia il genoma del core:** gli agenti restano `HypothesisAgentGenome` e producono `Strategy JSON` nella stessa DSL S-expression. Cambiano:
- 7 stili cognitivi Pythagoras-themed (in `prompts.json`)
- 3 nuovi indicatori candle (`candle_pattern`, `pythagorean_ratio`, `fractal_mirror`)
- Fitness con bonus di asset-invariance BTC↔ETH
- Output: strategie JSON freezate + dashboard NiceGUI + report markdown di analisi cross-book
**Deliverable di chiusura task:** scaffolding completo + 1 GA run short (smoke test) + `docs/analysis_first_run.md` con sintesi numerica e top winners.
---
## 1. Architettura
### Layout package
```
src/strategy_pythagoras/
├── pyproject.toml # workspace member, dipende da multi-swarm-core
├── README.md
├── tests/
│ └── test_indicators.py # unit-test per i 3 nuovi indicatori
└── strategy_pythagoras/
├── __init__.py
├── prompts.json # 7 stili Pythagoras-aligned (schema v3.2 di strategy_crypto)
├── indicators.py # candle_pattern, pythagorean_ratio, fractal_mirror
├── backend/
│ ├── __init__.py
│ ├── schema.py # tabelle paper_trading_*
│ ├── executor.py # PaperExecutor (port da strategy_crypto)
│ ├── portfolio.py # Portfolio (port da strategy_crypto)
│ └── persistence.py # PaperRepository
├── frontend/
│ ├── __init__.py
│ ├── nicegui_app.py # /strategy_pythagoras_gui
│ └── data.py # dual-reader: GA db + paper db + invariance metrics
└── strategies/ # JSON winners shippati col package
└── (vuoto al t0)
```
### Workspace registration
In `pyproject.toml` (root):
```toml
[tool.uv.workspace]
members = ["src/multi_swarm_core", "src/strategy_crypto", "src/strategy_pythagoras"]
[tool.uv.sources]
strategy-pythagoras = { workspace = true }
```
Aggiungere `strategy-pythagoras` a `[project].dependencies` per il deployable root.
### Riuso
| Componente | Source | Note |
|---|---|---|
| GA loop, mutation, crossover | `multi_swarm_core.ga` | invariato |
| Protocol parser/validator/compiler | `multi_swarm_core.protocol` | esteso con 3 indicatori (vedi §2) |
| Backtest engine | `multi_swarm_core.backtest` | invariato |
| LLM / OpenRouter / Anthropic clients | `multi_swarm_core.llm` | invariato |
| PaperExecutor + Portfolio | `strategy_crypto.backend` | **port** (non import), per isolamento DB |
| NiceGUI dashboard shell | `strategy_crypto.frontend` | **port** + adatta tabs |
### Persistence
```
state/strategy_pythagoras.db # GA: genomi, generazioni, fitness history
state/strategy_pythagoras_paper.db # paper-trading post-deploy
strategy_pythagoras/strategies/ # JSON winners shippati
docs/analysis_first_run.md # report cross-book
docs/analysis_runs/<run-id>/ # per-run dump
```
Env vars:
- `STRATEGY_PYTHAGORAS_DB_PATH` (default `state/strategy_pythagoras.db`)
- `STRATEGY_PYTHAGORAS_PAPER_DB_PATH` (default `state/strategy_pythagoras_paper.db`)
- `GA_INVARIANCE_ALPHA` (default 0.3)
- `GA_INVARIANCE_TOLERANCE_BARS` (default 36 = ±3h su 5m TF)
### Routing GUI
`/strategy_pythagoras_gui` (allinea a [[gui_subpath_routing]] in memory: ogni asset GUI su subpath, root dominio libera).
### Docker (Phase 2, fuori scope di questa spec)
Servizi paralleli a quelli di strategy_crypto:
- `strategy-pythagoras-paper` (runner)
- `strategy-pythagoras-gui` (dashboard)
Rete Traefik external, bind mount uid 1000 (vedi [[production_deployment]]).
---
## 2. Genoma e DSL
### Il genoma non cambia
`HypothesisAgentGenome` di `multi_swarm_core.genome.hypothesis` resta identico:
- `system_prompt: str`
- `feature_access: list[str]`
- `temperature: float`
- `top_p: float`
- `model_tier: ModelTier`
- `lookback_window: int` — vincolo 12 ≤ lw ≤ 200
- `cognitive_style: str` — uno dei 7 nuovi stili
- `parent_ids, generation, id` — invariati
### 3 nuovi indicatori (`strategy_pythagoras/indicators.py`)
| Nome | Params (JSON) | Output | Semantica operativa |
|---|---|---|---|
| `candle_pattern` | `[seq_str]` es. `"UDU"`, `"UUD0U"` | 1.0 se le ultime k=len(seq_str) candele matchano la sequenza, 0.0 altrimenti | `"U"` = close>open; `"D"` = close<open; `"0"` = `abs(close-open)/open < 0.001` |
| `pythagorean_ratio` | `[lookback: int]` | float = `max(close[-lookback:]) / min(close[-lookback:])` | Ratio prezzo, da confrontare con literal vicini a φ=1.618, π=3.1416, √2=1.414, e=2.718 |
| `fractal_mirror` | `[k: int, axis: str]` axis ∈ `{"h","v"}` | float ∈ [-1, +1] | Correlazione di Pearson tra ultime k candele e loro mirror: `"h"` = mirror tempo (inversione sequenza); `"v"` = mirror prezzo (1 - close/max) |
Vincoli del compiler:
- `candle_pattern`: `len(seq_str)` ∈ [3, 12], simboli ∈ `{U,D,0}`
- `pythagorean_ratio`: `lookback` ∈ [12, 200]
- `fractal_mirror`: `k` ∈ [3, 12], `axis``{"h","v"}`
Tutti e 3 vanno aggiunti a `KNOWN_INDICATORS` in `multi_swarm_core.protocol.grammar`.
### Esempio strategy JSON tipica
```json
{
"rules": [
{
"condition": {
"op": "and",
"args": [
{"op": "eq", "args": [
{"kind": "indicator", "name": "candle_pattern", "params": ["UDDU"]},
{"kind": "literal", "value": 1.0}
]},
{"op": "gt", "args": [
{"kind": "indicator", "name": "pythagorean_ratio", "params": [89]},
{"kind": "literal", "value": 1.618}
]}
]
},
"action": "entry-long"
},
{
"condition": {
"op": "or", "args": [
{"op": "gt", "args": [
{"kind": "indicator", "name": "pythagorean_ratio", "params": [89]},
{"kind": "literal", "value": 2.618}
]},
{"op": "crossunder", "args": [
{"kind": "indicator", "name": "fractal_mirror", "params": [12, "h"]},
{"kind": "literal", "value": 0.0}
]}
]
},
"action": "exit"
}
]
}
```
### Vincoli protettivi (anti-overfitting)
- `lookback_window ≤ 200`
- `candle_pattern` seq length ∈ [3, 12] (range 1+2 del Libro dei Frattali)
- `time_in_market` monitorato come metric (red flag [[selectivity_red_flag]]); non hard-gate al primo run
- Letterali con `pythagorean_ratio`: max 4 decimali (no `1.6180339`)
- Max 4 condizioni in AND per regola (eredita da prompts.json)
---
## 3. Stili cognitivi (`strategy_pythagoras/prompts.json`)
### Schema
Schema v3.2 identico a `strategy_crypto/prompts.json` (campi `_schema`, `_changelog`, `_design_invariants`, `agent_role`, `pattern_guidance`, `instruction`, `domain_warnings`, `anti_patterns`, `output_priorities`, `styles`).
### `agent_role`
> Sei un agente di un sistema swarm coevolutivo che cerca pattern frattali ricorrenti sui mercati crypto secondo il framework Pythagoras-Malanga (frattali H-C, trasformata di Fourier, geometria Evideon). Sei parte di una popolazione che esplora collettivamente lo spazio dei pattern: la diversità delle ipotesi è un asset critico. Preferisci esplorare strutture meno ovvie per la tua lente cognitiva. La strategia che produci deve essere riconoscibile come emanata dal tuo stile.
### `pattern_guidance` (specifico Pythagoras)
- Sequenze candle 3-12 lunghezza in alfabeto `{U,D,0}` via `candle_pattern`
- Mirror H/V come operatori di proiezione via `fractal_mirror`
- Ratios di prezzo vicini a φ=1.618, 1/φ=0.618, √2=1.414, π/2=1.571, e/2=1.359 entro tolleranza 0.5%
- Pattern composti: pattern lunghi (6-12) come concatenazione di pattern corti (Pattern 13 = Pattern 3 + Pattern 11, p. 53 del paper)
- Cicli ricorrenti: stesso pattern firato a distanze regolari (Poincaré)
### `domain_warnings`
- Crypto 24/7, no CME gap
- I "numeri sacri" (Solfeggio 396-852 Hz, 137.0359, etc.) sono prior teorici, NON leggi: usali come scale candidate, non come dogma
- Il paper Pythagoras è esplicitamente non-falsificabile (cita "consapevolezza del trader" come jolly per il fallimento): il backtest è l'unico arbitro
- `time_in_market > 80%` red flag (leveraged B&H camuffato)
- Tolleranza ±3h del paper → su 5m TF = ±36 barre
### `anti_patterns`
- Sequenza `candle_pattern` con `len > 7` simboli vincolati → overfitting
- `pythagorean_ratio` con tolleranza > 2% sui literal → numerologia spuriosa
- `fractal_mirror` con `k == lookback_window` → tautologico
- Letterali con più di 4 decimali
- Più di 4 condizioni in AND
- Crossover tra indicatori dello stesso tipo con lookback vicini → chattering
### `output_priorities`
1. **Coerenza con lente cognitiva** (es. `pythagorean` usa ratios, `candle_grammarian` usa sequenze esplicite)
2. **Asset-invariance** (segnali che attivano sia su BTC che su ETH entro ±36 barre)
3. **Selettività** (poche entry forti)
4. **Composizionalità** (pattern lunghi come somma di corti)
5. **Robustezza vs random baseline** (3σ richiesto da `skeptic_quant`)
### I 7 stili (`styles`)
Ogni stile mantiene shape v3.2 (directive 800-950 char ASCII-safe, `focus_metrics` 4 voci, ultimo periodo = "Archetipo dominante: X.", lookback range esplicito):
| `cognitive_style` | Archetipo / Metafora ancorante | `focus_metrics` | Lookback consigliato |
|---|---|---|---|
| `pythagorean` | Armonia di ratios sacri (φ, π, √2) | `pythagorean_ratio`, `candle_pattern`, `sma_pct`, `realized_vol` | 89-144 |
| `fractal_geometer` | Autosimilarità: pattern di 3 candele si ripetono dilatati a 6, 12 | `candle_pattern`, `fractal_mirror`, `atr_pct`, `pythagorean_ratio` | 48-144 |
| `fourier_analyst` | Somma di seni: frequenze ricorrenti dominanti | `sma_pct`, `realized_vol`, `candle_pattern`, `atr` | 60-200 |
| `evideonic_projector` | Presente = passato proiettato via mirror H+V e scale | `fractal_mirror`, `pythagorean_ratio`, `candle_pattern`, `sma_pct` | 24-96 |
| `candle_grammarian` | Lingua di 3 simboli (U,D,0); parole 3-12 lettere | `candle_pattern`, `volume`, `atr`, `realized_vol` | 12-48 |
| `recurrence_theorist` | Per Poincaré, eventi tornano: cerca pattern di oggi che firarono ieri | `candle_pattern`, `fractal_mirror`, `pythagorean_ratio`, `sma_pct` | 100-200 |
| `skeptic_quant` | Anticorpo all'unfalsifiability: solo edge 3σ vs random | `realized_vol`, `atr_pct`, `sma_pct`, `candle_pattern` | 60-150 |
Lo `skeptic_quant` è importante: la sua directive richiede esplicitamente che la strategia sia testabile e che il fitness sia confrontato contro random baseline.
### `_design_invariants`
Stessa filosofia di v3.2 di strategy_crypto:
- ASCII-safe (no Unicode oltre U+007F nelle directive)
- Ogni directive chiude con `Archetipo dominante: <metafora>.`
- Ogni directive ha range lookback numerico esplicito
- Prima frase: `Il mercato e ...`
- Lunghezza 800-950 char
---
## 4. Fitness, run GA short, deliverable analisi
### Fitness con bonus invariance
```
fitness(genome) = mean(sharpe_BTC, sharpe_ETH) × (1 + α × invariance_score)
invariance_score = corr_signal(entries_BTC, entries_ETH, tolerance_bars=GA_INVARIANCE_TOLERANCE_BARS)
∈ [0, 1]
α = GA_INVARIANCE_ALPHA (default 0.3)
```
`corr_signal` = frazione di entries su BTC che hanno una entry corrispondente su ETH entro ±36 barre (=±3h su 5m TF).
Implementazione come callback al GA in `multi_swarm_core.ga`, registrata da `strategy_pythagoras` al startup. Il core non sa nulla di Pythagoras: riceve solo la callback.
### GA run short (smoke test)
| Parametro | Valore | Note |
|---|---|---|
| `population_size` | 20 | minimo per 7 stili (~3 per stile) |
| `generations` | 5 | smoke test, non training |
| `elite_fraction` | 0.2 | top-4 sopravvivono |
| `mutation_rate` | 0.3 | invariato vs strategy_crypto |
| `crossover_rate` | 0.5 | invariato |
| `model_tier` distribuzione | 70% C (qwen-2.5-72b), 30% B (sonnet) | rispetta [[model_qwen_dependency]] |
| `dataset` | BTC 5m + ETH 5m da `strategy_crypto/series/` | riusa serie esistenti |
| `train_window` | 2024-07 → 2024-12 | copre le date Pythagoras (lug-ago 2024) |
| `test_window` | 2025-01 (1 mese) | hold-out per validare invariance |
| `name` | `pythagoras-smoke-001` | run id |
Lo smoke test verifica:
1. Workspace member installato in venv (`uv sync` + `uv run python -c "import strategy_pythagoras"`)
2. I 3 nuovi indicatori registrati nel grammar e compilabili
3. `prompts.json` caricato, 7 stili producono genomi distinti (no collisioni di id)
4. Bonus invariance impatta fitness (verifica via log)
5. JSON winners atterrano in `strategy_pythagoras/strategies/`
6. Dashboard NiceGUI si avvia e legge i due DB
### Deliverable analisi cross-book
`docs/analysis_first_run.md` con:
1. **Sintesi numerica dei riassunti** — riferimenti a `src/strategy_pythagoras/Pythagoras/Pythagoras_Trading_Prediction.summary.md` e `Libro_frattali.summary.md`
2. **Top-5 winners** — id, cognitive_style, fitness, sharpe_BTC, sharpe_ETH, invariance_score
3. **Pattern frattali emersi** — dump dei `candle_pattern` seq usate, conteggio per stile, % sovrapposizione con spazio teorico dei 57 pattern del Libro
4. **Ratios di prezzo emersi** — distribuzione literal usati con `pythagorean_ratio`, distanza dai numeri universali (φ/π/√2/Solfeggio)
5. **Cross-asset invariance osservata** — istogramma di `corr_signal` per top genomi
6. **Conclusione onesta** — confronto vs random baseline, quanti winners superano sharpe>1.0 su test + invariance>0.3, cosa il framework Pythagoras predice e cosa NON regge al backtest
Niente "consapevolezza" come jolly. Solo numeri.
### Dashboard NiceGUI
`/strategy_pythagoras_gui`:
- Tab **Genomes** — winners con stile/sharpe/invariance, click per drill su rules
- Tab **Patterns** — heatmap delle sequenze `candle_pattern` emerse, frequenza per stile
- Tab **Ratios** — istogramma literal vicini a costanti universali, bins centrati su φ, π, √2, ecc.
- Tab **Invariance** — scatter sharpe_BTC vs sharpe_ETH per ogni winner
---
## 5. Out-of-scope (esplicito)
- **Asset oltre BTC/ETH** (Oro/Argento del paper): non in primo run. Estensione futura.
- **Range candele oltre 12**: range 3-5 del Libro (12-56 candele). Estensione futura quando lo smoke test conferma stabilità.
- **Live trading reale**: solo paper-trading via stesso pattern di strategy_crypto.
- **OCR/Vision sulle figure del Libro dei Frattali**: esplicitamente ESCLUSO da request utente ("senza passare alle immagini").
- **Modifica del genoma del core**: nessuna modifica a `HypothesisAgentGenome`. Solo extension del grammar (3 indicatori).
- **Riferimenti pseudoscientifici operativizzati come legge**: i numeri sacri/Solfeggio sono prior teorici per literal candidati, non vincoli rigidi.
---
## 6. Criteri di accettazione
- [ ] `uv sync` riesce dalla root con `strategy_pythagoras` come member
- [ ] `uv run python -c "from strategy_pythagoras.indicators import candle_pattern, pythagorean_ratio, fractal_mirror"` non solleva
- [ ] `pytest src/strategy_pythagoras/tests/` verde (almeno unit-test per i 3 indicatori)
- [ ] GA short run `pythagoras-smoke-001` completa 5 generazioni senza errori
- [ ] Almeno 1 winner con fitness > 0 e `cognitive_style` ∈ {7 stili Pythagoras}
- [ ] Dashboard avvia su `http://localhost:PORT/strategy_pythagoras_gui` e mostra winners
- [ ] `docs/analysis_first_run.md` esiste e contiene tutte le sezioni elencate in §4
---
## 7. Riferimenti
- [Pythagoras Trading Prediction — riassunto](../../../src/strategy_pythagoras/Pythagoras/Pythagoras_Trading_Prediction.summary.md)
- [Libro dei Frattali — riassunto](../../../src/strategy_pythagoras/Pythagoras/Libro_frattali.summary.md)
- Memory: [[monorepo_uv_workspace]], [[gui_subpath_routing]], [[ownership_per_modulo]], [[production_deployment]], [[model_qwen_dependency]], [[selectivity_red_flag]]
- Template: `src/strategy_crypto/` (paper-trading + GUI), `src/strategy_crypto/strategy_crypto/prompts.json` (schema v3.2)
- Core: `src/multi_swarm_core/multi_swarm_core/genome/hypothesis.py`, `multi_swarm_core/protocol/grammar.py`
+4 -2
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@@ -10,14 +10,16 @@ requires-python = ">=3.13"
dependencies = [ dependencies = [
"multi-swarm-core", "multi-swarm-core",
"strategy-crypto", "strategy-crypto",
"strategy-pythagoras",
] ]
[tool.uv.workspace] [tool.uv.workspace]
members = ["src/multi_swarm_core", "src/strategy_crypto"] members = ["src/multi_swarm_core", "src/strategy_crypto", "src/strategy_pythagoras"]
[tool.uv.sources] [tool.uv.sources]
multi-swarm-core = { workspace = true } multi-swarm-core = { workspace = true }
strategy-crypto = { workspace = true } strategy-crypto = { workspace = true }
strategy-pythagoras = { workspace = true }
[dependency-groups] [dependency-groups]
dev = [ dev = [
@@ -42,7 +44,7 @@ python_version = "3.13"
strict = true strict = true
[tool.pytest.ini_options] [tool.pytest.ini_options]
testpaths = ["src/multi_swarm_core/tests", "src/strategy_crypto/tests"] testpaths = ["src/multi_swarm_core/tests", "src/strategy_crypto/tests", "src/strategy_pythagoras/tests"]
addopts = "-v --tb=short --import-mode=importlib" addopts = "-v --tb=short --import-mode=importlib"
markers = [ markers = [
"integration: tests that require external services (Cerbero, LLM API)", "integration: tests that require external services (Cerbero, LLM API)",
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@@ -0,0 +1,125 @@
"""Analisi per-trade dei top-K candidate del run BTC.
Per ciascun genome top-K, ri-esegue il backtest su ogni fold WFA e raccoglie:
- n_trades, n_wins, n_losses, win_rate
- max_drawdown
- return, sharpe
- list trade pnl summary
Output stampato a stdout, non scrive su disco.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
from datetime import datetime
import pandas as pd # type: ignore[import-untyped]
from multi_swarm_core.agents.hypothesis import _try_parse
from multi_swarm_core.backtest.engine import BacktestEngine
from multi_swarm_core.cerbero.client import CerberoClient
from multi_swarm_core.config import load_settings
from multi_swarm_core.data.cerbero_ohlcv import CerberoOHLCVLoader, OHLCVRequest
from multi_swarm_core.data.splits import expanding_walk_forward
from multi_swarm_core.metrics.basic import max_drawdown, sharpe_ratio, total_return
from multi_swarm_core.persistence.repository import Repository
from multi_swarm_core.protocol.compiler import compile_strategy
def main() -> None:
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--run-id", required=True)
ap.add_argument("--top-k", type=int, default=10)
ap.add_argument("--n-folds", type=int, default=4)
ap.add_argument("--train-ratio", type=float, default=0.5)
ap.add_argument("--symbol", default="BTC-PERPETUAL")
ap.add_argument("--timeframe", default="1h")
ap.add_argument("--start", default="2018-09-01T00:00:00+00:00")
ap.add_argument("--end", default="2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00")
ap.add_argument("--fees-bp", type=float, default=5.0)
args = ap.parse_args()
settings = load_settings()
repo = Repository(settings.ga_db_path)
repo.init_schema()
all_evals = repo.list_evaluations(args.run_id)
parseable = [
e for e in all_evals
if e.get("raw_text") and not e.get("parse_error") and e["fitness"] > 0
]
parseable.sort(key=lambda e: e["fitness"], reverse=True)
seen: set[str] = set()
top: list[dict] = []
for e in parseable:
if e["genome_id"] in seen:
continue
seen.add(e["genome_id"])
top.append(e)
if len(top) >= args.top_k:
break
token = (
settings.cerbero_mainnet_token.get_secret_value()
if settings.cerbero_mainnet_token
else settings.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value()
)
cerbero = CerberoClient(
base_url=settings.cerbero_base_url,
token=token,
bot_tag=settings.cerbero_bot_tag,
)
loader = CerberoOHLCVLoader(client=cerbero, cache_dir=settings.series_dir)
ohlcv = loader.load(OHLCVRequest(
symbol=args.symbol,
timeframe=args.timeframe,
start=datetime.fromisoformat(args.start),
end=datetime.fromisoformat(args.end),
))
splits = expanding_walk_forward(ohlcv.index, train_ratio=args.train_ratio, n_folds=args.n_folds)
engine = BacktestEngine(fees_bp=args.fees_bp)
print(f"\n{'=' * 110}")
print(f"PER-TRADE ANALYSIS — top-{len(top)} genomes × {len(splits)} folds")
print(f"{'=' * 110}")
for ev in top:
strat, err = _try_parse(ev["raw_text"] or "")
if strat is None:
print(f"\n>>> {ev['genome_id'][:16]} — parse error: {err}")
continue
print(f"\n>>> {ev['genome_id']} (fit_IS={ev['fitness']:.4f}, sharpe_IS={ev['sharpe']:.3f})")
print(f"{'fold':<5} {'period':<26} {'trades':>7} {'wins':>5} {'losses':>7} {'win%':>6} {'avg_w':>9} {'avg_l':>9} {'ret':>7} {'maxDD':>7} {'sharpe':>7}")
for s in splits:
test_df = ohlcv.loc[s.test_idx]
try:
signal_fn = compile_strategy(strat)
signals = signal_fn(test_df)
bt = engine.run(test_df, signals)
except Exception as e:
print(f" fold {s.fold}: error {e}")
continue
trades = bt.trades
n_trades = len(trades)
wins = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl > 0]
losses = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl <= 0]
n_wins = len(wins)
n_losses = len(losses)
win_rate = (n_wins / n_trades * 100) if n_trades else 0.0
avg_w = (sum(wins) / n_wins) if n_wins else 0.0
avg_l = (sum(losses) / n_losses) if n_losses else 0.0
# Normalize equity for DD/return
if n_trades > 0:
notional = float(test_df["close"].iloc[0])
equity_pos = (bt.equity_curve / notional) + 1.0
ret_pct = total_return(equity_pos)
dd = max_drawdown(equity_pos)
sr = sharpe_ratio(bt.returns, periods_per_year=8760)
else:
ret_pct = dd = sr = 0.0
period = f"{str(s.test_idx[0])[:10]}..{str(s.test_idx[-1])[:10]}"
print(f"{s.fold:<5} {period:<26} {n_trades:>7} {n_wins:>5} {n_losses:>7} {win_rate:>5.1f}% {avg_w:>9.1f} {avg_l:>9.1f} {ret_pct:>6.2%} {dd:>6.2%} {sr:>7.3f}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
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"""Confronto per-trade dei 4 winner cross-run (BTC/ETH × 1h/5m).
Per ogni winner: ri-esegue il backtest su 4 fold WFA expanding-window e raccoglie
trade buoni/non buoni, win-rate, avg PnL, return, max DD, Sharpe.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
from datetime import datetime
import pandas as pd # type: ignore[import-untyped]
from multi_swarm_core.agents.hypothesis import _try_parse
from multi_swarm_core.backtest.engine import BacktestEngine
from multi_swarm_core.cerbero.client import CerberoClient
from multi_swarm_core.config import load_settings
from multi_swarm_core.data.cerbero_ohlcv import CerberoOHLCVLoader, OHLCVRequest
from multi_swarm_core.data.splits import expanding_walk_forward
from multi_swarm_core.metrics.basic import max_drawdown, sharpe_ratio, total_return
from multi_swarm_core.persistence.repository import Repository
from multi_swarm_core.protocol.compiler import compile_strategy
# (run_name, genome_id, symbol, timeframe, label)
WINNERS = [
("phase1-btc-100-001", "238e481262c1594c", "BTC-PERPETUAL", "1h", "BTC 1h sharpshooter (Gen 7)"),
("phase1-btc-100-001", "23a24989e2ed0f84", "BTC-PERPETUAL", "1h", "BTC 1h robust (Gen 0 elite)"),
("phase1-eth-100-001", "4b45a72c13acf1d5", "ETH-PERPETUAL", "1h", "ETH 1h best-by-sharpe (killed)"),
("phase1-btc-100-5m-001", "f8ca6642adf7e0cd", "BTC-PERPETUAL", "5m", "BTC 5m robust winner"),
("phase1-eth-100-5m-001", "c04dff7086bb9588", "ETH-PERPETUAL", "5m", "ETH 5m OOS winner"),
]
def analyze_genome(run_id: str, genome_id: str, symbol: str, timeframe: str, label: str,
settings, cerbero, loader) -> None:
repo = Repository(settings.ga_db_path)
repo.init_schema()
evs = [e for e in repo.list_evaluations(run_id) if e["genome_id"] == genome_id]
if not evs:
print(f" no eval for {genome_id} in {run_id}")
return
ev = evs[0]
strat, err = _try_parse(ev.get("raw_text") or "")
if strat is None:
print(f" parse error: {err}")
return
req = OHLCVRequest(
symbol=symbol, timeframe=timeframe,
start=datetime.fromisoformat("2018-09-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
end=datetime.fromisoformat("2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
)
ohlcv = loader.load(req)
splits = expanding_walk_forward(ohlcv.index, train_ratio=0.5, n_folds=4)
engine = BacktestEngine(fees_bp=5.0)
print(f"\n>>> {label}")
print(f" {genome_id} | fit_IS={ev['fitness']:.4f} sharpe_IS={ev['sharpe']:.3f} trades_IS={ev['n_trades']}")
print(f" {'fold':<5} {'period':<26} {'trades':>7} {'wins':>5} {'losses':>7} {'win%':>6} {'avg_w':>10} {'avg_l':>10} {'ret':>8} {'maxDD':>7} {'sharpe':>7}")
sum_ret = 0.0
sum_trades = 0
sum_wins = 0
for s in splits:
test_df = ohlcv.loc[s.test_idx]
try:
signal_fn = compile_strategy(strat)
signals = signal_fn(test_df)
bt = engine.run(test_df, signals)
except Exception as e:
print(f" fold {s.fold}: error {e}")
continue
trades = bt.trades
n = len(trades)
wins = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl > 0]
losses = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl <= 0]
nw, nl = len(wins), len(losses)
wr = (nw / n * 100) if n else 0.0
aw = (sum(wins) / nw) if nw else 0.0
al = (sum(losses) / nl) if nl else 0.0
if n > 0:
notional = float(test_df["close"].iloc[0])
eq = (bt.equity_curve / notional) + 1.0
ret = total_return(eq)
dd = max_drawdown(eq)
sr = sharpe_ratio(bt.returns, periods_per_year=8760)
else:
ret = dd = sr = 0.0
period = f"{str(s.test_idx[0])[:10]}..{str(s.test_idx[-1])[:10]}"
print(f" {s.fold:<5} {period:<26} {n:>7} {nw:>5} {nl:>7} {wr:>5.1f}% {aw:>10.1f} {al:>10.1f} {ret:>7.2%} {dd:>6.2%} {sr:>7.3f}")
sum_ret += ret
sum_trades += n
sum_wins += nw
overall_wr = (sum_wins / sum_trades * 100) if sum_trades else 0.0
print(f" {'='*5} TOTALS: {sum_trades:>7} {sum_wins:>5} {sum_trades-sum_wins:>7} {overall_wr:>5.1f}% cum_ret={sum_ret:+.2%}")
def main() -> None:
settings = load_settings()
repo = Repository(settings.ga_db_path)
repo.init_schema()
name_to_id: dict[str, str] = {}
for w in WINNERS:
run_name = w[0]
if run_name in name_to_id:
continue
runs = repo.list_runs()
for r in runs:
if r["name"] == run_name:
name_to_id[run_name] = r["id"]
break
token = (
settings.cerbero_mainnet_token.get_secret_value()
if settings.cerbero_mainnet_token
else settings.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value()
)
cerbero = CerberoClient(
base_url=settings.cerbero_base_url,
token=token,
bot_tag=settings.cerbero_bot_tag,
)
loader = CerberoOHLCVLoader(client=cerbero, cache_dir=settings.series_dir)
print(f"{'='*120}")
print(f"PER-TRADE COMPARISON — {len(WINNERS)} winner candidates × 4 folds WFA")
print(f"{'='*120}")
for run_name, genome_id, symbol, timeframe, label in WINNERS:
run_id = name_to_id.get(run_name)
if not run_id:
print(f"!!! run not found: {run_name}")
continue
analyze_genome(run_id, genome_id, symbol, timeframe, label, settings, cerbero, loader)
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
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"""2 winner cross-tick: BTC 238e4812 + ETH c04dff7086 su 5m / 15m / 1h.
Per ogni combinazione strategy × timeframe: backtest year-by-year (2019-2025)
con metriche per-anno e totale 7y.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from datetime import datetime
from pathlib import Path
from multi_swarm_core.backtest.engine import BacktestEngine
from multi_swarm_core.cerbero.client import CerberoClient
from multi_swarm_core.config import load_settings
from multi_swarm_core.data.cerbero_ohlcv import CerberoOHLCVLoader, OHLCVRequest
from multi_swarm_core.metrics.basic import max_drawdown, sharpe_ratio, total_return
from multi_swarm_core.protocol.compiler import compile_strategy
from multi_swarm_core.protocol.parser import parse_strategy
WINNERS = [
# (label, path, symbol)
("BTC NEW (238e4812, native=1h)", "btc_238e4812.json", "BTC-PERPETUAL"),
("ETH NEW (c04dff7086, native=5m)", "eth_c04dff7086.json", "ETH-PERPETUAL"),
]
TIMEFRAMES = ["5m", "15m", "1h"]
YEARS = [
("2019", "2019-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2020-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
("2020", "2020-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2021-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
("2021", "2021-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2022-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
("2022", "2022-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2023-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
("2023", "2023-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2024-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
("2024", "2024-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2025-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
("2025", "2025-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
]
def evaluate(strat, ohlcv, engine, label, tf) -> None:
print(f"\n >>> tick={tf} | {len(ohlcv)} bars")
print(f" {'year':<6} {'trades':>7} {'wins':>5} {'losses':>7} {'win%':>6} {'ret':>8} {'maxDD':>7} {'sharpe':>7}")
sum_ret = 0.0
sum_trades = 0
sum_wins = 0
for year_label, start, end in YEARS:
mask = (ohlcv.index >= datetime.fromisoformat(start)) & (ohlcv.index < datetime.fromisoformat(end))
slice_df = ohlcv[mask]
if len(slice_df) == 0:
continue
try:
signal_fn = compile_strategy(strat)
signals = signal_fn(slice_df)
bt = engine.run(slice_df, signals)
except Exception as e:
print(f" {year_label:<6} ERROR: {e}")
continue
trades = bt.trades
n = len(trades)
wins = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl > 0]
losses = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl <= 0]
nw, nl = len(wins), len(losses)
wr = (nw / n * 100) if n else 0.0
if n > 0:
notional = float(slice_df["close"].iloc[0])
eq = (bt.equity_curve / notional) + 1.0
ret = total_return(eq)
dd = max_drawdown(eq)
sr = sharpe_ratio(bt.returns, periods_per_year=8760)
else:
ret = dd = sr = 0.0
print(f" {year_label:<6} {n:>7} {nw:>5} {nl:>7} {wr:>5.1f}% {ret:>7.2%} {dd:>6.2%} {sr:>7.3f}")
sum_ret += ret
sum_trades += n
sum_wins += nw
overall_wr = (sum_wins / sum_trades * 100) if sum_trades else 0.0
print(f" ===== 7y TOT: {sum_trades:>7} {sum_wins:>5} {sum_trades-sum_wins:>7} {overall_wr:>5.1f}% cum_ret={sum_ret:+.2%}")
def main() -> None:
settings = load_settings()
token = (
settings.cerbero_mainnet_token.get_secret_value()
if settings.cerbero_mainnet_token
else settings.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value()
)
cerbero = CerberoClient(
base_url=settings.cerbero_base_url,
token=token,
bot_tag=settings.cerbero_bot_tag,
)
loader = CerberoOHLCVLoader(client=cerbero, cache_dir=settings.series_dir)
engine = BacktestEngine(fees_bp=5.0)
strategies_dir = Path("/app/strategies")
for label, fname, symbol in WINNERS:
path = strategies_dir / fname
strat = parse_strategy(path.read_text())
print(f"\n{'='*100}")
print(f">>> {label} — symbol={symbol}")
for tf in TIMEFRAMES:
try:
ohlcv = loader.load(OHLCVRequest(
symbol=symbol, timeframe=tf,
start=datetime.fromisoformat("2018-09-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
end=datetime.fromisoformat("2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
))
evaluate(strat, ohlcv, engine, label, tf)
except Exception as e:
print(f"\n >>> tick={tf} FAILED TO LOAD: {e}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
+40 -5
View File
@@ -33,6 +33,36 @@ from strategy_crypto.backend import PaperExecutor, PaperRepository, Portfolio
PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
# Mapping timeframe stringa Cerbero -> minuti del bar. Le strategie tradano
# sul "bar appena chiuso", quindi end deve essere snappato al boundary del
# loro timeframe (NON sempre al top dell'ora) per evitare la regressione in
# cui ETH 5m veniva valutato una volta sola ogni 60 min.
_TIMEFRAME_MINUTES: dict[str, int] = {
"1m": 1,
"5m": 5,
"15m": 15,
"30m": 30,
"1h": 60,
"4h": 240,
"1d": 1440,
}
def _align_end_to_timeframe(now: datetime, timeframe: str) -> datetime:
"""Snap ``now`` al boundary del bar timeframe (UTC, naive seconds).
Es.: now=14:37:42, tf="5m" -> 14:35:00
now=14:37:42, tf="1h" -> 14:00:00
now=14:00:00, tf="1h" -> 14:00:00
"""
bar_min = _TIMEFRAME_MINUTES[timeframe]
aligned = now.replace(second=0, microsecond=0)
if bar_min >= 1440:
return aligned.replace(hour=0, minute=0)
total_min = aligned.hour * 60 + aligned.minute
snapped = (total_min // bar_min) * bar_min
return aligned.replace(hour=snapped // 60, minute=snapped % 60)
def _default_strategies_dir() -> Path: def _default_strategies_dir() -> Path:
"""Cartella JSON shippata col package strategy_crypto.""" """Cartella JSON shippata col package strategy_crypto."""
@@ -70,9 +100,11 @@ def load_assets(strategies_dir: Path) -> list[AssetConfig]:
raise FileNotFoundError( raise FileNotFoundError(
f"Expected btc_*.json and eth_*.json in {strategies_dir}" f"Expected btc_*.json and eth_*.json in {strategies_dir}"
) )
# ETH winner c04dff7086 e' tunato su 5m: a 1h la strategia perde (cum_ret -33% 7y).
# BTC winner 238e4812 e' tunato su 1h: tick native = paper tick.
return [ return [
AssetConfig(symbol="BTC-PERPETUAL", strategy_file=btc_files[0]), AssetConfig(symbol="BTC-PERPETUAL", strategy_file=btc_files[0], timeframe="1h"),
AssetConfig(symbol="ETH-PERPETUAL", strategy_file=eth_files[0]), AssetConfig(symbol="ETH-PERPETUAL", strategy_file=eth_files[0], timeframe="5m"),
] ]
@@ -129,9 +161,12 @@ def main() -> None:
now = datetime.now(UTC) now = datetime.now(UTC)
last_prices: dict[str, float] = {} last_prices: dict[str, float] = {}
for asset, executor in zip(assets, executors, strict=True): for asset, executor in zip(assets, executors, strict=True):
# fetch OHLCV most recent lookback bars # fetch OHLCV most recent lookback bars: end snappato al timeframe
end = now.replace(minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0) # dell'asset, non sempre all'ora (altrimenti ETH 5m veniva valutato
start = end - timedelta(hours=args.lookback_bars + 1) # solo ogni 60 min, regressione vs backtest tunato 5m).
bar_min = _TIMEFRAME_MINUTES[asset.timeframe]
end = _align_end_to_timeframe(now, asset.timeframe)
start = end - timedelta(minutes=bar_min * (args.lookback_bars + 1))
req = OHLCVRequest( req = OHLCVRequest(
symbol=asset.symbol, symbol=asset.symbol,
timeframe=asset.timeframe, timeframe=asset.timeframe,
+56 -8
View File
@@ -19,6 +19,30 @@ def _default_prompt_library_path() -> Path:
return Path(str(importlib.resources.files("strategy_crypto") / "prompts.json")) return Path(str(importlib.resources.files("strategy_crypto") / "prompts.json"))
# Default v2 hard-kill list: oltre ai degenerate originali, fees_eat_alpha e
# negative_net_pnl sono deal-breaker non recuperabili via soft penalty (vedi
# 7y-overfit incident 2026-05-16: elite IS Sharpe 1.93 -> net -5% su 7y per fees).
_DEFAULT_V2_HARD_KILL: tuple[str, ...] = (
"no_trades",
"degenerate",
"undertrading",
"fees_eat_alpha",
"negative_net_pnl",
)
def _resolve_hard_kill(args) -> tuple[str, ...] | None:
"""Resolve la lista hard-kill da CLI args.
Priority: ``--fitness-hard-kill`` esplicito > default v2 > ``None`` (v1).
"""
if args.fitness_hard_kill:
return tuple(s.strip() for s in args.fitness_hard_kill.split(",") if s.strip())
if args.fitness_v2:
return _DEFAULT_V2_HARD_KILL
return None
def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace: def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
p = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Multi-Swarm Phase 1 runner") p = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Multi-Swarm Phase 1 runner")
p.add_argument("--name", default="phase1-spike-001") p.add_argument("--name", default="phase1-spike-001")
@@ -35,7 +59,10 @@ def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
) )
p.add_argument("--symbol", default="BTC-PERPETUAL") p.add_argument("--symbol", default="BTC-PERPETUAL")
p.add_argument("--timeframe", default="1h") p.add_argument("--timeframe", default="1h")
p.add_argument("--start", default="2024-01-01T00:00:00+00:00") # Default esteso a 7.3 anni: copre bear 2018-19, halving 2020, COVID,
# ATH 2021, winter 2022, ETF rally 2024, regime corrente. Una finestra
# corta lascia il GA libero di overfit a un singolo regime.
p.add_argument("--start", default="2018-09-01T00:00:00+00:00")
p.add_argument("--end", default="2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00") p.add_argument("--end", default="2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00")
p.add_argument("--fees-bp", type=float, default=5.0) p.add_argument("--fees-bp", type=float, default=5.0)
p.add_argument("--n-trials-dsr", type=int, default=50) p.add_argument("--n-trials-dsr", type=int, default=50)
@@ -67,8 +94,10 @@ def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
"--fitness-v2", "--fitness-v2",
action="store_true", action="store_true",
help=( help=(
"Attiva fitness v2: solo {no_trades, degenerate, undertrading} azzerano; " "Attiva fitness v2: hard-kill su {no_trades, degenerate, undertrading, "
"gli altri HIGH applicano soft penalty multiplicativa" "fees_eat_alpha, negative_net_pnl}; gli altri HIGH applicano soft penalty "
"multiplicativa. Versione hardened post 7y-overfit incident: fees + "
"net negativo non sono recuperabili."
), ),
) )
p.add_argument( p.add_argument(
@@ -77,6 +106,16 @@ def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
default=0.4, default=0.4,
help="v2: fattore soft penalty per HIGH non-hard (default 0.4 → 1 HIGH → 0.71x)", help="v2: fattore soft penalty per HIGH non-hard (default 0.4 → 1 HIGH → 0.71x)",
) )
p.add_argument(
"--fitness-hard-kill",
type=str,
default=None,
help=(
"Override comma-separated della lista di finding name che azzerano la "
"fitness in modalita' v2. Es: 'no_trades,degenerate'. Default v2: "
"no_trades,degenerate,undertrading,fees_eat_alpha,negative_net_pnl."
),
)
p.add_argument( p.add_argument(
"--wfa-train-split", "--wfa-train-split",
type=float, type=float,
@@ -114,6 +153,16 @@ def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
"Schema: {styles: {<name>: {directive: <testo>}}}" "Schema: {styles: {<name>: {directive: <testo>}}}"
), ),
) )
p.add_argument(
"--llm-concurrency",
type=int,
default=1,
help=(
"Numero di propose() LLM concorrenti per generazione (default 1 = "
"serial). OpusAgent processa in coda FIFO; concurrency > 1 accoda "
"piu' richieste in parallelo."
),
)
return p.parse_args() return p.parse_args()
@@ -151,13 +200,13 @@ def main() -> None:
print(f"OHLCV loaded: {len(ohlcv)} bars from {ohlcv.index[0]} to {ohlcv.index[-1]}") print(f"OHLCV loaded: {len(ohlcv)} bars from {ohlcv.index[0]} to {ohlcv.index[-1]}")
llm = LLMClient( llm = LLMClient(
openrouter_api_key=settings.openrouter_api_key.get_secret_value(), opus_agent_api_key=settings.opus_agent_api_key.get_secret_value(),
opus_agent_base_url=settings.opus_agent_base_url,
model_tier_s=settings.llm_model_tier_s, model_tier_s=settings.llm_model_tier_s,
model_tier_a=settings.llm_model_tier_a, model_tier_a=settings.llm_model_tier_a,
model_tier_b=settings.llm_model_tier_b, model_tier_b=settings.llm_model_tier_b,
model_tier_c=settings.llm_model_tier_c, model_tier_c=settings.llm_model_tier_c,
model_tier_d=settings.llm_model_tier_d, model_tier_d=settings.llm_model_tier_d,
openrouter_base_url=settings.openrouter_base_url,
) )
cfg = RunConfig( cfg = RunConfig(
@@ -178,15 +227,14 @@ def main() -> None:
fees_eat_alpha_threshold=args.fees_eat_alpha_threshold, fees_eat_alpha_threshold=args.fees_eat_alpha_threshold,
flat_too_long_threshold=args.flat_too_long_threshold, flat_too_long_threshold=args.flat_too_long_threshold,
undertrading_threshold=args.undertrading_threshold, undertrading_threshold=args.undertrading_threshold,
fitness_hard_kill_findings=( fitness_hard_kill_findings=_resolve_hard_kill(args),
("no_trades", "degenerate", "undertrading") if args.fitness_v2 else None
),
fitness_adversarial_soft_penalty=args.fitness_soft_penalty, fitness_adversarial_soft_penalty=args.fitness_soft_penalty,
wfa_train_split=args.wfa_train_split, wfa_train_split=args.wfa_train_split,
wfa_top_k=args.wfa_top_k, wfa_top_k=args.wfa_top_k,
eval_oos_during_loop=args.eval_oos_during_loop, eval_oos_during_loop=args.eval_oos_during_loop,
fitness_combined_alpha=args.fitness_combined_alpha, fitness_combined_alpha=args.fitness_combined_alpha,
prompt_library=prompt_library, prompt_library=prompt_library,
llm_concurrency=args.llm_concurrency,
) )
run_id = run_phase1(cfg, ohlcv=ohlcv, llm=llm) run_id = run_phase1(cfg, ohlcv=ohlcv, llm=llm)
+475
View File
@@ -0,0 +1,475 @@
"""Smoke test del GA per strategy_pythagoras.
Esegue 2 run di Phase 1 (BTC 5m + ETH 5m), poi cross-rank i genomi
comuni applicando il bonus di asset-invariance (corr_signal sui pattern
di entry entro +/-36 barre = +/-3h su 5m TF, vedi paper Pythagoras p.43).
Configurazione (per spec §4):
- Population 20, 5 generations
- Asset: BTC-PERPETUAL 5m + ETH-PERPETUAL 5m (Cerbero deribit)
- Train window: 2024-07-01 -> 2024-12-31
- Test window: 2025-01-01 -> 2025-01-31 (caricato come coda dello stesso
range; non usato dal GA ma necessario per dataset continuo se in futuro
si attiva WFA)
- Stili cognitivi: 7 da strategy_pythagoras/prompts.json
- Indicatori Pythagoras: candle_pattern, pythagorean_ratio, fractal_mirror
(registrati nel compiler tramite import side-effect di strategy_pythagoras.indicators)
- Fitness post-processing cross-asset: apply_invariance_bonus
- Output: top 50 winners persisted in state/strategy_pythagoras.db
(tabella pythagoras_winners)
Adattamento all'API reale di run_phase1 (Task 4.1 findings + verifica diretta):
- ``run_phase1(cfg: RunConfig, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame, llm: LLMClient) -> str``
ritorna un ``run_id``. Non c'e' un fitness hook esterno: il GA loop
invoca ``compute_fitness`` inline e persiste via
``repo.save_evaluation``. Per il bonus invariance dobbiamo:
1. lanciare due ``run_phase1`` indipendenti, uno per asset;
2. caricare le evaluations via ``repo.list_evaluations(run_id)``;
3. ricompilare la strategia (``_try_parse`` + ``compile_strategy``) sui
segnali di ciascun OHLCV per estrarre gli entry index;
4. calcolare ``corr_signal`` sugli entry binari (Series int-indexed)
e applicare ``apply_invariance_bonus``.
- Le serie OHLCV NON sono shippate in repo come ``src/strategy_crypto/series/``:
il default loader Cerbero le cachea in ``./series/{cache_key}.parquet``
(cache key = sha1 di ``exchange|symbol|timeframe|start|end``). Riusiamo
quel meccanismo: caricamento via ``CerberoOHLCVLoader``, identico a
``scripts/run_phase1.py``.
Shape effettivo del dict ritornato da ``repo.list_evaluations(run_id)``
(vedi ``persistence/repository.py:213`` e schema in ``schema.py``):
{
'run_id', 'genome_id', 'fitness', 'dsr', 'dsr_pvalue', 'sharpe',
'max_dd', 'total_return', 'n_trades', 'parse_error', 'raw_text',
'eval_ts', 'fitness_oos', 'sharpe_oos', 'return_oos',
'max_dd_oos', 'n_trades_oos'
}
Nota: ``cognitive_style`` e ``generation`` NON sono nelle evaluations;
vanno presi via ``repo.list_genomes(run_id)`` (payload_json del genoma).
``raw_text`` contiene il completion grezzo del LLM, da cui si estrae
nuovamente lo ``Strategy`` AST via ``_try_parse``.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import logging
import os
import sqlite3
from datetime import datetime
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any
import pandas as pd # type: ignore[import-untyped]
# Side-effect import: registra candle_pattern, pythagorean_ratio, fractal_mirror
# in compiler.INDICATOR_FNS prima che il GA inizi a compilare strategie.
# (Il compiler in protocol/compiler.py importa gia' i 3 simboli dal package
# strategy_pythagoras.indicators, ma facciamo l'import esplicito qui per
# rendere la dipendenza chiara e indipendente dall'ordine di import.)
import strategy_pythagoras.indicators # noqa: F401
from multi_swarm_core.agents.hypothesis import _try_parse
from multi_swarm_core.backtest.orders import Side
from multi_swarm_core.cerbero.client import CerberoClient
from multi_swarm_core.config import load_settings
from multi_swarm_core.data.cerbero_ohlcv import CerberoOHLCVLoader, OHLCVRequest
from multi_swarm_core.genome.hypothesis import ModelTier
from multi_swarm_core.genome.prompt_library import PromptLibrary
from multi_swarm_core.llm.client import LLMClient
from multi_swarm_core.orchestrator.run import RunConfig, run_phase1
from multi_swarm_core.persistence.repository import Repository
from multi_swarm_core.protocol.compiler import compile_strategy
from strategy_pythagoras.fitness_invariance import (
apply_invariance_bonus,
corr_signal,
)
ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
DB_PATH = Path(
os.getenv("STRATEGY_PYTHAGORAS_DB_PATH", str(ROOT / "state" / "strategy_pythagoras.db"))
)
PROMPTS_PATH = ROOT / "src" / "strategy_pythagoras" / "strategy_pythagoras" / "prompts.json"
RUN_NAME = os.getenv("PYTHAGORAS_SMOKE_RUN_NAME", "pythagoras-smoke-001")
# GA configuration (smoke per spec §4)
POPULATION = 20
GENERATIONS = 5
# Data window
TRAIN_START = datetime.fromisoformat("2024-07-01T00:00:00+00:00")
TRAIN_END = datetime.fromisoformat("2024-12-31T23:55:00+00:00")
# Carichiamo anche gennaio 2025 come coda (per usi futuri: WFA OOS).
# Il GA loop in questa fase usa l'intero range; e' compito di un eventuale
# wfa_train_split (non attivato qui per coerenza con spec §4 smoke).
TEST_END = datetime.fromisoformat("2025-01-31T23:55:00+00:00")
ASSETS: list[tuple[str, str]] = [
("BTC-PERPETUAL", "btc"),
("ETH-PERPETUAL", "eth"),
]
TIMEFRAME = "5m"
EXCHANGE = "deribit"
TOP_K_PERSIST = 50
logger = logging.getLogger(RUN_NAME)
def init_winners_table(con: sqlite3.Connection) -> None:
"""Crea ``pythagoras_winners`` se non esiste (idempotente)."""
con.execute(
"""
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS pythagoras_winners (
genome_id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
cognitive_style TEXT,
fitness REAL,
sharpe_btc REAL,
sharpe_eth REAL,
invariance_score REAL,
rules_json TEXT,
generation INTEGER,
run_name TEXT
)
"""
)
con.commit()
def _load_ohlcv(loader: CerberoOHLCVLoader, symbol: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Carica la finestra ``TRAIN_START -> TEST_END`` per ``symbol`` su 5m."""
req = OHLCVRequest(
symbol=symbol,
timeframe=TIMEFRAME,
start=TRAIN_START,
end=TEST_END,
exchange=EXCHANGE,
)
ohlcv = loader.load(req)
logger.info(
"OHLCV loaded for %s: %d bars (%s -> %s)",
symbol, len(ohlcv),
ohlcv.index[0] if len(ohlcv) else "n/a",
ohlcv.index[-1] if len(ohlcv) else "n/a",
)
return ohlcv
def _build_run_config(
run_name: str, symbol: str, prompt_library: PromptLibrary, db_path: Path,
) -> RunConfig:
"""Costruisce il ``RunConfig`` per un singolo asset.
Usa lo stesso GA-core DB del progetto (``settings.ga_db_path`` se override
non passato): vi vengono scritte ``runs``, ``generations``, ``genomes``,
``evaluations`` per la run.
"""
return RunConfig(
run_name=run_name,
population_size=POPULATION,
n_generations=GENERATIONS,
elite_k=2,
tournament_k=3,
p_crossover=0.5,
seed=42,
model_tier=ModelTier.C,
symbol=symbol,
timeframe=TIMEFRAME,
fees_bp=5.0,
n_trials_dsr=50,
db_path=db_path,
prompt_library=prompt_library,
# Smoke: niente WFA, niente eval OOS in loop, niente prompt mutation LLM.
# I parametri restano sui default sicuri di RunConfig.
)
def run_ga_for_asset(
asset_label: str,
symbol: str,
ohlcv: pd.DataFrame,
prompt_library: PromptLibrary,
llm: LLMClient,
ga_db_path: Path,
) -> tuple[str, Repository]:
"""Lancia ``run_phase1`` per un asset.
Ritorna ``(run_id, repo)`` per il caller, che usera' ``repo`` per
estrarre evaluations + genomes a fine del run.
"""
run_name = f"{RUN_NAME}-{asset_label}"
cfg = _build_run_config(run_name, symbol, prompt_library, ga_db_path)
logger.info("Starting GA run '%s' on %s (%d bars)", run_name, symbol, len(ohlcv))
run_id = run_phase1(cfg, ohlcv=ohlcv, llm=llm)
logger.info("Run '%s' completed: run_id=%s", run_name, run_id)
repo = Repository(ga_db_path)
return run_id, repo
def _entries_series_from_eval(
eval_row: dict[str, Any], ohlcv: pd.DataFrame,
) -> pd.Series | None:
"""Ricostruisce gli entries binari (Side.LONG/SHORT -> 1, altrimenti 0)
a partire dal ``raw_text`` salvato nell'eval row.
Ritorna ``None`` se il raw_text non e' parsabile (caso parse_error).
L'index della Series ritornata e' INTERO posizionale (0..N-1) come
richiesto da ``corr_signal`` (vedi tests in
``strategy_pythagoras/tests/test_fitness_invariance.py``).
"""
raw = eval_row.get("raw_text")
if not raw:
return None
strategy, parse_err = _try_parse(raw)
if strategy is None:
logger.debug(
"skip genome %s: parse error '%s'",
eval_row.get("genome_id"), parse_err,
)
return None
try:
signal_fn = compile_strategy(strategy)
signals = signal_fn(ohlcv)
except Exception as exc:
logger.debug(
"skip genome %s: compile/exec error: %s",
eval_row.get("genome_id"), exc,
)
return None
# 1 dove il signal e' LONG o SHORT (entry attiva), 0 altrove.
is_entry = signals.isin([Side.LONG, Side.SHORT]).fillna(False).astype(int)
# Riassegna integer index per il match in corr_signal (che somma delta
# interi all'index e fa il test ``ti + delta in b_set``).
return pd.Series(is_entry.values, index=range(len(is_entry)), dtype="int64")
def _collect_evaluations(
repo: Repository, run_id: str, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame,
) -> dict[str, dict[str, Any]]:
"""Carica evaluations + genomes per ``run_id`` e li unisce per genome_id.
Returns: dict ``{genome_id: row}`` dove ``row`` contiene i campi
dell'eval + ``cognitive_style``, ``generation``, ``strategy_json``
(dict del genoma serializzato) e ``entries`` (pd.Series int-indexed).
"""
evals = repo.list_evaluations(run_id)
genomes = repo.list_genomes(run_id)
genome_by_id: dict[str, dict[str, Any]] = {}
for grow in genomes:
try:
payload = json.loads(grow["payload_json"])
except (json.JSONDecodeError, TypeError):
payload = {}
genome_by_id[grow["id"]] = payload
out: dict[str, dict[str, Any]] = {}
for ev in evals:
gid = ev["genome_id"]
payload = genome_by_id.get(gid, {})
row = dict(ev)
row["cognitive_style"] = payload.get("cognitive_style", "")
row["generation"] = int(payload.get("generation", 0))
# ``raw_text`` e' il completion grezzo; lo ri-parsiamo in
# _entries_series_from_eval. Salviamo la rappresentazione canonica
# ``strategy_json`` per persistenza (best-effort: se il parse fallisce
# salviamo il raw_text come fallback).
strategy, _err = _try_parse(row.get("raw_text") or "")
if strategy is not None:
# Strategy non e' direttamente JSON-serializable: serializziamo
# la struttura nominale tramite dataclasses.asdict-like fallback.
try:
row["strategy_json"] = _strategy_to_jsonable(strategy)
except Exception:
row["strategy_json"] = {"raw_text": row.get("raw_text", "")}
else:
row["strategy_json"] = {"raw_text": row.get("raw_text", "")}
row["entries"] = _entries_series_from_eval(ev, ohlcv)
out[gid] = row
return out
def _strategy_to_jsonable(strategy: Any) -> dict[str, Any]:
"""Serializza un ``Strategy`` AST in dict JSON-friendly.
Strategy/Rule/Node sono dataclass: usiamo ``dataclasses.asdict`` quando
possibile, con fallback a ``str(strategy)`` se la struttura contiene
membri non-serializzabili (es. enum non-Str).
"""
import dataclasses
if dataclasses.is_dataclass(strategy):
try:
return dataclasses.asdict(strategy)
except TypeError:
pass
return {"repr": repr(strategy)}
def compute_invariance_for_pair(
btc_evals: dict[str, dict[str, Any]],
eth_evals: dict[str, dict[str, Any]],
) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
"""Per ogni genome_id presente in entrambi i run, calcola invariance + bonus.
Lo stesso ``genome_id`` puo' apparire in entrambi i run perche' l'id e'
deterministico (sha1 di system_prompt+feature_access+temperature+...) e
il seed del GA e' fisso: il founder set e i mutanti hanno alta probabilita'
di collisione cross-asset. Quando il genoma compare in entrambi, le
metriche ``sharpe`` IS sono comparabili e ha senso valutare l'invarianza.
"""
out: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
common_ids = set(btc_evals) & set(eth_evals)
logger.info(
"Common genomes BTC ∩ ETH: %d (BTC: %d, ETH: %d)",
len(common_ids), len(btc_evals), len(eth_evals),
)
for gid in common_ids:
b = btc_evals[gid]
e = eth_evals[gid]
entries_btc: pd.Series | None = b.get("entries")
entries_eth: pd.Series | None = e.get("entries")
if entries_btc is None or entries_eth is None:
inv = 0.0
elif len(entries_btc) == 0 or len(entries_eth) == 0:
inv = 0.0
else:
try:
# Allineiamo a lunghezza minima: i due asset possono avere
# un numero di bars leggermente diverso (gap nel feed Cerbero).
# corr_signal lavora solo sugli index 1 -> il troncamento non
# introduce bias asimmetrici.
min_len = min(len(entries_btc), len(entries_eth))
inv = corr_signal(
entries_btc.iloc[:min_len].reset_index(drop=True),
entries_eth.iloc[:min_len].reset_index(drop=True),
)
except Exception as exc:
logger.warning("corr_signal failed for %s: %s", gid, exc)
inv = 0.0
sharpe_btc = float(b.get("sharpe") or 0.0)
sharpe_eth = float(e.get("sharpe") or 0.0)
mean_sharpe = 0.5 * (sharpe_btc + sharpe_eth)
boosted = apply_invariance_bonus(mean_sharpe, inv)
out.append({
"genome_id": gid,
"cognitive_style": b.get("cognitive_style") or e.get("cognitive_style", ""),
"fitness": float(boosted),
"sharpe_btc": sharpe_btc,
"sharpe_eth": sharpe_eth,
"invariance_score": float(inv),
"rules_json": json.dumps(b.get("strategy_json") or {}, default=str),
"generation": int(b.get("generation", 0)),
"run_name": RUN_NAME,
})
return sorted(out, key=lambda r: r["fitness"], reverse=True)
def persist_winners(con: sqlite3.Connection, winners: list[dict[str, Any]]) -> None:
if not winners:
logger.warning("No winners to persist")
return
con.executemany(
"""
INSERT OR REPLACE INTO pythagoras_winners
(genome_id, cognitive_style, fitness, sharpe_btc, sharpe_eth,
invariance_score, rules_json, generation, run_name)
VALUES (:genome_id, :cognitive_style, :fitness, :sharpe_btc, :sharpe_eth,
:invariance_score, :rules_json, :generation, :run_name)
""",
winners,
)
con.commit()
def main() -> None:
logging.basicConfig(
level=logging.INFO,
format="%(asctime)s %(levelname)s %(name)s %(message)s",
)
settings = load_settings()
# Prompt library Pythagoras (NON quello di strategy_crypto).
if not PROMPTS_PATH.exists():
raise FileNotFoundError(f"Prompts file not found: {PROMPTS_PATH}")
prompt_library = PromptLibrary.from_json(PROMPTS_PATH)
logger.info(
"PromptLibrary loaded from %s: %d styles (%s)",
PROMPTS_PATH, len(prompt_library.styles),
", ".join(prompt_library.cognitive_styles),
)
# Cerbero client + OHLCV loader (riusa la cache parquet in ./series).
token = (
settings.cerbero_mainnet_token.get_secret_value()
if settings.cerbero_mainnet_token
else settings.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value()
)
cerbero = CerberoClient(
base_url=settings.cerbero_base_url,
token=token,
bot_tag=settings.cerbero_bot_tag,
)
loader = CerberoOHLCVLoader(client=cerbero, cache_dir=settings.series_dir)
llm = LLMClient(
opus_agent_api_key=settings.opus_agent_api_key.get_secret_value(),
opus_agent_base_url=settings.opus_agent_base_url,
model_tier_s=settings.llm_model_tier_s,
model_tier_a=settings.llm_model_tier_a,
model_tier_b=settings.llm_model_tier_b,
model_tier_c=settings.llm_model_tier_c,
model_tier_d=settings.llm_model_tier_d,
)
# Setup DB winners (separato dal GA core DB).
DB_PATH.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
con = sqlite3.connect(DB_PATH)
try:
init_winners_table(con)
logger.info("Winners DB initialized at %s", DB_PATH)
# Carica OHLCV per entrambi gli asset PRIMA dei run GA, cosi' se la
# rete o Cerbero sono giu' falliamo subito senza sprecare chiamate LLM.
ohlcv_by_asset: dict[str, pd.DataFrame] = {}
for symbol, label in ASSETS:
ohlcv_by_asset[label] = _load_ohlcv(loader, symbol)
# Run GA per asset. Usa il GA-core DB definito in settings; ogni run
# crea un proprio run_id e set di evaluations isolato.
evals_by_asset: dict[str, dict[str, dict[str, Any]]] = {}
for symbol, label in ASSETS:
run_id, repo = run_ga_for_asset(
asset_label=label,
symbol=symbol,
ohlcv=ohlcv_by_asset[label],
prompt_library=prompt_library,
llm=llm,
ga_db_path=settings.ga_db_path,
)
evals_by_asset[label] = _collect_evaluations(
repo, run_id, ohlcv_by_asset[label]
)
logger.info(
"%s: %d evaluations collected", label.upper(),
len(evals_by_asset[label]),
)
# Cross-rank con invariance bonus.
winners = compute_invariance_for_pair(
evals_by_asset["btc"], evals_by_asset["eth"],
)
logger.info(
"Computed invariance bonus for %d common genomes", len(winners),
)
top = winners[:TOP_K_PERSIST]
persist_winners(con, top)
logger.info(
"Persisted top %d winners to %s (table: pythagoras_winners)",
len(top), DB_PATH,
)
finally:
con.close()
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
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"""Multi-fold validation di un run esistente.
Prende un ``run_id`` da ``state/runs.db``, seleziona i top-K genomi per fitness IS,
e li rivaluta su N fold expanding-window di un dataset OHLCV (tipicamente piu'
lungo del train del GA). Output: per-fold + aggregati (mean / min / std) della
fitness OOS.
Use case: il GA puo' selezionare un "lucky-shot" overfit a uno specifico regime.
Validare i top-K su finestre temporali diverse rivela quali strategie sono
robuste vs overfitter.
Esempio::
python scripts/validate_run.py \\
--run-id e263651598894da688d95fda90a34a96 \\
--top-k 10 --n-folds 4 \\
--symbol BTC-PERPETUAL --timeframe 1h \\
--start 2018-09-01 --end 2026-01-01
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import json
import statistics
from datetime import datetime
from pathlib import Path
import pandas as pd # type: ignore[import-untyped]
from multi_swarm_core.agents.adversarial import AdversarialAgent
from multi_swarm_core.agents.falsification import FalsificationAgent
from multi_swarm_core.agents.hypothesis import _try_parse
from multi_swarm_core.cerbero.client import CerberoClient
from multi_swarm_core.config import load_settings
from multi_swarm_core.data.cerbero_ohlcv import CerberoOHLCVLoader, OHLCVRequest
from multi_swarm_core.data.splits import expanding_walk_forward
from multi_swarm_core.ga.fitness import compute_fitness
from multi_swarm_core.persistence.repository import Repository
def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
p = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Multi-fold validation di top-K genomi")
p.add_argument("--run-id", required=True, help="run_id da validare")
p.add_argument("--top-k", type=int, default=10, help="quanti genomi top valutare")
p.add_argument("--n-folds", type=int, default=4, help="numero fold expanding-window")
p.add_argument(
"--train-ratio",
type=float,
default=0.5,
help="frazione iniziale per il train iniziale (folds testano la coda)",
)
p.add_argument("--symbol", default="BTC-PERPETUAL")
p.add_argument("--timeframe", default="1h")
p.add_argument("--exchange", default="deribit", choices=["deribit", "bybit", "hyperliquid"])
p.add_argument("--start", default="2018-09-01T00:00:00+00:00")
p.add_argument("--end", default="2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00")
p.add_argument("--fees-bp", type=float, default=5.0)
p.add_argument("--n-trials-dsr", type=int, default=50)
p.add_argument(
"--fees-eat-alpha-threshold", type=float, default=0.5,
)
p.add_argument(
"--flat-too-long-threshold", type=float, default=0.95,
)
p.add_argument(
"--undertrading-threshold", type=int, default=10,
)
p.add_argument(
"--fitness-v2", action="store_true",
help="Coerente con --fitness-v2 del run originale",
)
p.add_argument(
"--fitness-soft-penalty", type=float, default=0.4,
)
p.add_argument(
"--output-json",
type=Path,
default=None,
help="Path JSON dove salvare i risultati (default: stdout solo)",
)
return p.parse_args()
def main() -> None:
args = parse_args()
settings = load_settings()
# Repository: top-K genomi per fitness IS, con raw_text parsable.
repo = Repository(settings.ga_db_path)
repo.init_schema()
run = repo.get_run(args.run_id)
if run is None:
raise SystemExit(f"run_id non trovato: {args.run_id}")
print(f"Validating run: {run['name']} ({args.run_id})")
print(f" status: {run['status']}, cost: ${run['total_cost_usd']:.4f}")
all_evals = repo.list_evaluations(args.run_id)
parseable = [
e for e in all_evals
if e.get("raw_text") and not e.get("parse_error") and e["fitness"] > 0
]
parseable.sort(key=lambda e: e["fitness"], reverse=True)
# Dedup by genome_id (gli elite vengono salvati una sola volta ma possono apparire
# in evaluations multiple se rivalutati con eval_oos_during_loop).
seen_ids: set[str] = set()
top_genomes: list[dict] = []
for e in parseable:
if e["genome_id"] in seen_ids:
continue
seen_ids.add(e["genome_id"])
top_genomes.append(e)
if len(top_genomes) >= args.top_k:
break
print(f" selected top-{len(top_genomes)} genomes for validation")
# OHLCV: carica il dataset esteso.
token = (
settings.cerbero_mainnet_token.get_secret_value()
if settings.cerbero_mainnet_token
else settings.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value()
)
cerbero = CerberoClient(
base_url=settings.cerbero_base_url,
token=token,
bot_tag=settings.cerbero_bot_tag,
)
loader = CerberoOHLCVLoader(client=cerbero, cache_dir=settings.series_dir)
req = OHLCVRequest(
symbol=args.symbol,
timeframe=args.timeframe,
start=datetime.fromisoformat(args.start),
end=datetime.fromisoformat(args.end),
exchange=args.exchange,
)
ohlcv = loader.load(req)
print(f" OHLCV: {len(ohlcv)} bars from {ohlcv.index[0]} to {ohlcv.index[-1]}")
splits = expanding_walk_forward(
ohlcv.index, train_ratio=args.train_ratio, n_folds=args.n_folds,
)
print(f" generated {len(splits)} folds")
for s in splits:
print(f" fold {s.fold}: test [{s.test_idx[0]} -> {s.test_idx[-1]}] ({len(s.test_idx)} bars)")
fals_agent = FalsificationAgent(fees_bp=args.fees_bp, n_trials_dsr=args.n_trials_dsr)
adv_agent = AdversarialAgent(
fees_bp=args.fees_bp,
fees_eat_alpha_threshold=args.fees_eat_alpha_threshold,
flat_too_long_threshold=args.flat_too_long_threshold,
undertrading_threshold=args.undertrading_threshold,
)
hard_kill = (
("no_trades", "degenerate", "undertrading") if args.fitness_v2 else None
)
# Itera per ogni genome + fold.
results: list[dict] = []
for gi, ev in enumerate(top_genomes):
strategy, parse_err = _try_parse(ev["raw_text"] or "")
if strategy is None:
print(f" [{gi}] {ev['genome_id'][:12]} skip (parse error: {parse_err})")
continue
per_fold: list[dict] = []
for s in splits:
test_df = ohlcv.loc[s.test_idx]
try:
fals = fals_agent.evaluate(strategy, test_df)
adv = adv_agent.review(strategy, test_df)
fit = compute_fitness(
fals, adv,
hard_kill_findings=hard_kill,
adversarial_soft_penalty=args.fitness_soft_penalty,
)
except Exception as e:
print(f" fold {s.fold} eval failed: {e}")
continue
per_fold.append({
"fold": s.fold,
"fitness": float(fit),
"sharpe": float(fals.sharpe),
"dsr": float(fals.dsr),
"dsr_pvalue": float(fals.dsr_pvalue),
"return": float(fals.total_return),
"max_dd": float(fals.max_drawdown),
"n_trades": int(fals.n_trades),
"test_start": str(s.test_idx[0]),
"test_end": str(s.test_idx[-1]),
})
if not per_fold:
continue
fits = [pf["fitness"] for pf in per_fold]
sharps = [pf["sharpe"] for pf in per_fold]
results.append({
"genome_id": ev["genome_id"],
"fitness_is": float(ev["fitness"]),
"sharpe_is": float(ev["sharpe"]),
"folds": per_fold,
"fitness_oos_mean": statistics.mean(fits),
"fitness_oos_min": min(fits),
"fitness_oos_max": max(fits),
"fitness_oos_std": statistics.pstdev(fits) if len(fits) > 1 else 0.0,
"sharpe_oos_mean": statistics.mean(sharps),
"sharpe_oos_min": min(sharps),
"robust_score": min(fits), # min across folds = pessimismo
})
# Ranking finale: per robust_score (min fitness) decrescente.
results.sort(key=lambda r: r["robust_score"], reverse=True)
print()
print(f"{'='*120}")
print(f"VALIDATION RESULTS ({len(results)} genomes, {len(splits)} folds)")
print(f"{'='*120}")
print(
f"{'rank':>4} {'genome':12} {'fit_is':>8} {'sh_is':>7} "
f"{'fit_mean':>9} {'fit_min':>8} {'fit_max':>8} {'fit_std':>8} "
f"{'sh_mean':>8} {'sh_min':>8} {'robust':>7}"
)
print("-" * 120)
for rank, r in enumerate(results, 1):
print(
f"{rank:>4} {r['genome_id'][:12]:12} "
f"{r['fitness_is']:>8.4f} {r['sharpe_is']:>7.3f} "
f"{r['fitness_oos_mean']:>9.4f} {r['fitness_oos_min']:>8.4f} "
f"{r['fitness_oos_max']:>8.4f} {r['fitness_oos_std']:>8.4f} "
f"{r['sharpe_oos_mean']:>8.3f} {r['sharpe_oos_min']:>8.3f} "
f"{r['robust_score']:>7.4f}"
)
if results:
winner = results[0]
print()
print(f"ROBUST WINNER: {winner['genome_id']}")
print(f" fitness_is={winner['fitness_is']:.4f}, "
f"fitness_oos_min={winner['fitness_oos_min']:.4f}, "
f"fitness_oos_mean={winner['fitness_oos_mean']:.4f}")
print(f" sharpe_is={winner['sharpe_is']:.3f}, "
f"sharpe_oos_min={winner['sharpe_oos_min']:.3f}")
print(f" per-fold breakdown:")
for pf in winner["folds"]:
print(
f" fold {pf['fold']} [{pf['test_start'][:10]} .. {pf['test_end'][:10]}]: "
f"fit={pf['fitness']:.4f} sharpe={pf['sharpe']:.3f} "
f"ret={pf['return']:.3f} n_trades={pf['n_trades']}"
)
if args.output_json:
payload = {
"run_id": args.run_id,
"run_name": run["name"],
"n_folds": len(splits),
"top_k_requested": args.top_k,
"top_k_evaluated": len(results),
"symbol": args.symbol,
"timeframe": args.timeframe,
"start": args.start,
"end": args.end,
"ohlcv_bars": len(ohlcv),
"results": results,
}
args.output_json.write_text(json.dumps(payload, indent=2, default=str))
print(f"\nResults saved to: {args.output_json}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
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"""Per-year breakdown delle 4 strategie: 2 NEW (BTC 238e4812 + ETH c04dff7086)
+ 2 OLD freezate (btc_9cf506b8 hardened-001 + eth_facd6af85d5d).
Backtest anno-per-anno (2019-2025) sul tick di discovery di ciascuna strategia.
Output: trade, wins/losses, win%, return%, max DD%, Sharpe per ogni anno.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from datetime import datetime
from pathlib import Path
from multi_swarm_core.backtest.engine import BacktestEngine
from multi_swarm_core.cerbero.client import CerberoClient
from multi_swarm_core.config import load_settings
from multi_swarm_core.data.cerbero_ohlcv import CerberoOHLCVLoader, OHLCVRequest
from multi_swarm_core.metrics.basic import max_drawdown, sharpe_ratio, total_return
from multi_swarm_core.protocol.compiler import compile_strategy
from multi_swarm_core.protocol.parser import parse_strategy
STRATEGIES = [
# (label, path, symbol, timeframe)
("BTC NEW (238e4812, paper attuale)", "btc_238e4812.json", "BTC-PERPETUAL", "1h"),
("BTC OLD (9cf506b8, hardened-001 prev paper)", "archive/btc_9cf506b8.json", "BTC-PERPETUAL", "1h"),
("ETH NEW (c04dff7086, paper attuale)", "eth_c04dff7086.json", "ETH-PERPETUAL", "5m"),
("ETH OLD (facd6af85d5d, prev paper)", "archive/eth_facd6af85d5d.json", "ETH-PERPETUAL", "1h"),
]
YEARS = [
("2019", "2019-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2020-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
("2020", "2020-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2021-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
("2021", "2021-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2022-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
("2022", "2022-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2023-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
("2023", "2023-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2024-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
("2024", "2024-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2025-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
("2025", "2025-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
]
def main() -> None:
settings = load_settings()
token = (
settings.cerbero_mainnet_token.get_secret_value()
if settings.cerbero_mainnet_token
else settings.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value()
)
cerbero = CerberoClient(
base_url=settings.cerbero_base_url,
token=token,
bot_tag=settings.cerbero_bot_tag,
)
loader = CerberoOHLCVLoader(client=cerbero, cache_dir=settings.series_dir)
engine = BacktestEngine(fees_bp=5.0)
strategies_dir = Path("/app/strategies")
for label, fname, symbol, timeframe in STRATEGIES:
path = strategies_dir / fname
strat = parse_strategy(path.read_text())
# Carica intero range una volta sola
ohlcv = loader.load(OHLCVRequest(
symbol=symbol, timeframe=timeframe,
start=datetime.fromisoformat("2018-09-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
end=datetime.fromisoformat("2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
))
print(f"\n{'=' * 110}")
print(f">>> {label}")
print(f" symbol={symbol} timeframe={timeframe} | {len(ohlcv)} bars total")
print(f" {'year':<6} {'bars':>6} {'trades':>7} {'wins':>5} {'losses':>7} {'win%':>6} {'avg_w':>10} {'avg_l':>10} {'ret':>8} {'maxDD':>7} {'sharpe':>7}")
sum_ret = 0.0
sum_trades = 0
sum_wins = 0
for year_label, start, end in YEARS:
mask = (ohlcv.index >= datetime.fromisoformat(start)) & (ohlcv.index < datetime.fromisoformat(end))
slice_df = ohlcv[mask]
if len(slice_df) == 0:
continue
try:
signal_fn = compile_strategy(strat)
signals = signal_fn(slice_df)
bt = engine.run(slice_df, signals)
except Exception as e:
print(f" {year_label:<6} ERROR: {e}")
continue
trades = bt.trades
n = len(trades)
wins = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl > 0]
losses = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl <= 0]
nw, nl = len(wins), len(losses)
wr = (nw / n * 100) if n else 0.0
aw = (sum(wins) / nw) if nw else 0.0
al = (sum(losses) / nl) if nl else 0.0
if n > 0:
notional = float(slice_df["close"].iloc[0])
eq = (bt.equity_curve / notional) + 1.0
ret = total_return(eq)
dd = max_drawdown(eq)
sr = sharpe_ratio(bt.returns, periods_per_year=8760)
else:
ret = dd = sr = 0.0
print(f" {year_label:<6} {len(slice_df):>6} {n:>7} {nw:>5} {nl:>7} {wr:>5.1f}% {aw:>10.1f} {al:>10.1f} {ret:>7.2%} {dd:>6.2%} {sr:>7.3f}")
sum_ret += ret
sum_trades += n
sum_wins += nw
overall_wr = (sum_wins / sum_trades * 100) if sum_trades else 0.0
print(f" {'='*5} TOTALS 7y: {sum_trades:>7} {sum_wins:>5} {sum_trades-sum_wins:>7} {overall_wr:>5.1f}% cum_ret={sum_ret:+.2%}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
@@ -172,10 +172,11 @@ class AdversarialAgent:
) )
) )
# Fees-eat-alpha: gross_pnl > 0 ma fees > 50% del lordo. # Fees-eat-alpha: gross_pnl > 0 ma fees > soglia del lordo.
# La strategia ha edge teorico ma il margine viene mangiato dai # La strategia ha edge teorico ma il margine viene mangiato dai
# costi di transazione: non sostenibile in produzione. # costi di transazione: non sostenibile in produzione.
# Se gross_pnl <= 0 il check non si applica (gia' perdente). # Se gross_pnl <= 0 il check non si applica (la condizione e' coperta
# da ``negative_net_pnl`` sotto).
gross_pnl = sum(t.gross_pnl for t in result.trades) gross_pnl = sum(t.gross_pnl for t in result.trades)
total_fees = sum(t.fees for t in result.trades) total_fees = sum(t.fees for t in result.trades)
if gross_pnl > 0 and total_fees / gross_pnl > self._fees_eat_alpha_threshold: if gross_pnl > 0 and total_fees / gross_pnl > self._fees_eat_alpha_threshold:
@@ -190,4 +191,22 @@ class AdversarialAgent:
) )
) )
# Negative-net-pnl: somma di ``trade.net_pnl`` < 0 sul training.
# Cattura sia il caso "gross negativo" (no edge direzionale) sia il
# caso "gross positivo ma fees superiori a gross" (edge insufficiente).
# Sintesi del net-after-fees su finestra continua: deal-breaker, non
# negoziabile via soft penalty.
net_pnl = gross_pnl - total_fees
if net_pnl < 0:
report.findings.append(
Finding(
name="negative_net_pnl",
severity=Severity.HIGH,
detail=(
f"Net PnL ${net_pnl:.2f} < 0 after fees over {n_bars} bars; "
f"gross ${gross_pnl:.2f}, fees ${total_fees:.2f}"
),
)
)
return report return report
@@ -4,11 +4,9 @@ import re
from dataclasses import dataclass, field from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from typing import Any from typing import Any
import openai
from ..genome.hypothesis import HypothesisAgentGenome from ..genome.hypothesis import HypothesisAgentGenome
from ..genome.prompt_library import PromptLibrary from ..genome.prompt_library import PromptLibrary
from ..llm.client import CompletionResult, EmptyCompletionError, LLMClient from ..llm.client import CompletionResult, EmptyCompletionError, LLMClient, OpusAgentError, OpusAgentTransientError
from ..protocol.parser import ParseError, Strategy, parse_strategy from ..protocol.parser import ParseError, Strategy, parse_strategy
from ..protocol.validator import ValidationError, validate_strategy from ..protocol.validator import ValidationError, validate_strategy
@@ -181,6 +179,12 @@ def _build_system_prompt(lib: PromptLibrary, genome: HypothesisAgentGenome) -> s
parts.append("") parts.append("")
# 3. Grammar spec (core scaffold) # 3. Grammar spec (core scaffold)
parts.append(_SYSTEM_GRAMMAR_SPEC) parts.append(_SYSTEM_GRAMMAR_SPEC)
# 3b. Custom indicators spec (da prompts.json, opzionale) - estende la lista
# "Leaf - indicatori" con firme strategy-specific non note al core.
if lib.custom_indicators_spec:
parts.append("\nINDICATORI CUSTOM (firme aggiuntive, applica le stesse regole grammaticali):\n")
parts.append(lib.custom_indicators_spec)
parts.append("")
# 4. Pattern guidance (da prompts.json, opzionale) # 4. Pattern guidance (da prompts.json, opzionale)
if lib.pattern_guidance: if lib.pattern_guidance:
parts.append( parts.append(
@@ -284,19 +288,12 @@ def _render_focus_block(keys: list[str], market: MarketSummary) -> str:
_RETRY_TEMPLATE = """\ _RETRY_TEMPLATE = """\
{original_user} Il JSON che hai generato contiene un errore: {previous_error}
--- TENTATIVO PRECEDENTE FALLITO --- Correggi e rispondi di nuovo con un singolo oggetto JSON valido
Output: {previous_raw} dentro fence ```json...```, seguendo strettamente lo schema fornito.
Errore: {previous_error}
---
Correggi l'errore e rispondi di nuovo con un singolo oggetto JSON valido
dentro fence ```json...```, seguendo strettamente lo schema fornito nel
SYSTEM message.
""" """
_RETRY_RAW_TRUNCATE = 800
_JSON_FENCE_RE = re.compile( _JSON_FENCE_RE = re.compile(
r"```(?:json)?\s*(\{[\s\S]*\})\s*```", r"```(?:json)?\s*(\{[\s\S]*\})\s*```",
@@ -425,34 +422,39 @@ class HypothesisAgent:
errors: list[str] = [] errors: list[str] = []
last_raw = "" last_raw = ""
max_attempts = 1 + self._max_retries max_attempts = 1 + self._max_retries
session_id: str | None = None
try:
for attempt in range(max_attempts): for attempt in range(max_attempts):
if attempt == 0: if attempt == 0:
user = original_user user = original_user
req_session_id = "new"
else: else:
truncated = last_raw[:_RETRY_RAW_TRUNCATE] user = _RETRY_TEMPLATE.format(previous_error=errors[-1])
user = _RETRY_TEMPLATE.format( req_session_id = session_id or "new"
original_user=original_user,
previous_raw=truncated,
previous_error=errors[-1],
)
try: try:
completion = self._llm.complete(genome, system=system, user=user) completion = self._llm.complete(
genome, system=system, user=user,
session_id=req_session_id,
summarize=True,
)
except EmptyCompletionError as e: except EmptyCompletionError as e:
# LLM esaurito retry tenacity senza una risposta. Tratta come
# parse-fail "empty" e ritenta nel loop esterno (max_attempts).
errors.append(f"empty_completion: {e}") errors.append(f"empty_completion: {e}")
last_raw = "" last_raw = ""
continue continue
except openai.RateLimitError as e: except OpusAgentTransientError as e:
# Provider upstream rate limited oltre i retry tenacity. errors.append(f"transient_error: {e}")
# Marca genome come fallito senza propagare l'eccezione al run. last_raw = ""
errors.append(f"rate_limit: {e}") continue
except OpusAgentError as e:
errors.append(f"opus_agent_error: {e}")
last_raw = "" last_raw = ""
continue continue
completions.append(completion) completions.append(completion)
last_raw = completion.text last_raw = completion.text
if completion.session_id:
session_id = completion.session_id
strategy, err = _try_parse(completion.text) strategy, err = _try_parse(completion.text)
if strategy is not None: if strategy is not None:
@@ -465,6 +467,9 @@ class HypothesisAgent:
) )
assert err is not None assert err is not None
errors.append(err) errors.append(err)
finally:
if session_id:
self._llm.close_session(session_id)
chained = " | ".join( chained = " | ".join(
f"attempt {i + 1}: {e}" for i, e in enumerate(errors) f"attempt {i + 1}: {e}" for i, e in enumerate(errors)
@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass from dataclasses import dataclass
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd # type: ignore[import-untyped] import pandas as pd # type: ignore[import-untyped]
from .orders import Position, Side, Trade from .orders import Position, Side, Trade
@@ -28,74 +29,110 @@ class BacktestEngine:
self.fees_bp = fees_bp self.fees_bp = fees_bp
def run(self, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame, signals: pd.Series) -> BacktestResult: def run(self, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame, signals: pd.Series) -> BacktestResult:
n = len(ohlcv)
if n == 0:
empty = pd.Series([], dtype=float)
return BacktestResult(equity_curve=empty, returns=empty, trades=[])
signals = signals.reindex(ohlcv.index).ffill().fillna(Side.FLAT) signals = signals.reindex(ohlcv.index).ffill().fillna(Side.FLAT)
# Esecuzione con delay 1: segnale a t-1 esegue a open di t. # Esecuzione con delay 1: segnale a t-1 esegue a open di t.
shifted = [Side.FLAT, *list(signals.iloc[:-1])] executed = pd.Series(
executed_side = pd.Series(shifted, index=ohlcv.index, dtype=object) [Side.FLAT, *list(signals.iloc[:-1])],
index=ohlcv.index,
dtype=object,
)
# Codifica side in int per vectorizzazione: 0=FLAT, +1=LONG, -1=SHORT.
side_code = np.where(
executed.values == Side.LONG, 1,
np.where(executed.values == Side.SHORT, -1, 0),
).astype(np.int8)
opens = ohlcv["open"].to_numpy(dtype=np.float64)
closes = ohlcv["close"].to_numpy(dtype=np.float64)
ts_index = ohlcv.index
# Identifica transizioni: punto in cui side[i] != side[i-1] (con side[-1]=0).
prev = np.concatenate(([0], side_code[:-1]))
change = side_code != prev
# Indici di entry (cambio verso side != 0).
entry_idxs = np.flatnonzero(change & (side_code != 0))
# Indici di chiusura: per ogni entry, il prossimo indice dove side[i] != side_entry.
# Vectorized: per ogni entry_idx, cerca change & side != side_entry oltre l'entry.
position: Position | None = None
position_entry_ts: pd.Timestamp | None = None
trades: list[Trade] = [] trades: list[Trade] = []
equity = 0.0 # realized_pnl[t]: PnL netto cumulato dopo le chiusure avvenute a OPEN di t.
equity_history: list[float] = [] realized_pnl = np.zeros(n, dtype=np.float64)
returns_history: list[float] = [] fees_rate = self.fees_bp / 10000.0
prev_equity = 0.0 size = 1.0
for ts, row in ohlcv.iterrows(): # Posizione corrente all'inizio di ogni indice t (prima di applicare il transitorio):
target_side = executed_side.loc[ts] # used per MtM computation. open_side_at_t / open_entry_at_t.
current_side = position.side if position else Side.FLAT open_side = np.zeros(n, dtype=np.int8)
open_entry = np.zeros(n, dtype=np.float64)
if target_side != current_side: for entry_idx in entry_idxs:
if position is not None: entry_side = int(side_code[entry_idx])
assert position_entry_ts is not None entry_price = opens[entry_idx]
trade = Trade( # Cerca exit: primo indice > entry_idx dove side differisce.
entry_ts=position_entry_ts, after = side_code[entry_idx + 1:]
exit_ts=ts, rel = np.flatnonzero(after != entry_side)
side=position.side, if rel.size > 0:
size=position.size, exit_idx = entry_idx + 1 + int(rel[0])
entry_price=position.entry_price, exit_price = opens[exit_idx]
exit_price=float(row["open"]), exit_ts = ts_index[exit_idx]
gross = entry_side * (exit_price - entry_price) * size
fees = fees_rate * size * (entry_price + exit_price)
net = gross - fees
# La chiusura avviene a open[exit_idx]: dal bar exit_idx in poi il
# PnL e' realizzato (non piu' MtM).
realized_pnl[exit_idx:] += net
# Posizione aperta in [entry_idx, exit_idx-1].
open_side[entry_idx:exit_idx] = entry_side
open_entry[entry_idx:exit_idx] = entry_price
trades.append(Trade(
entry_ts=ts_index[entry_idx],
exit_ts=exit_ts,
side=Side.LONG if entry_side == 1 else Side.SHORT,
size=size,
entry_price=entry_price,
exit_price=exit_price,
fees_bp=self.fees_bp, fees_bp=self.fees_bp,
) ))
trades.append(trade) else:
equity += trade.net_pnl # Ultima posizione ancora aperta: chiusura forced a close[-1].
position = None # Parita' col loop legacy: MtM su [entry_idx, n-1), realized totale
position_entry_ts = None # SOLO al bar n-1 (legacy fa equity_history[-1] = equity).
if target_side in (Side.LONG, Side.SHORT): last_close = closes[-1]
position = Position( gross = entry_side * (last_close - entry_price) * size
side=target_side, entry_price=float(row["open"]), size=1.0 fees = fees_rate * size * (entry_price + last_close)
) net = gross - fees
position_entry_ts = ts if entry_idx < n - 1:
open_side[entry_idx:n - 1] = entry_side
mark = float(row["close"]) open_entry[entry_idx:n - 1] = entry_price
mtm = position.unrealized_pnl(mark) if position else 0.0 realized_pnl[-1] += net
current_equity = equity + mtm trades.append(Trade(
equity_history.append(current_equity) entry_ts=ts_index[entry_idx],
returns_history.append(current_equity - prev_equity) exit_ts=ts_index[-1],
prev_equity = current_equity side=Side.LONG if entry_side == 1 else Side.SHORT,
size=size,
if position is not None: entry_price=entry_price,
assert position_entry_ts is not None
last_ts = ohlcv.index[-1]
last_close = float(ohlcv["close"].iloc[-1])
trade = Trade(
entry_ts=position_entry_ts,
exit_ts=last_ts,
side=position.side,
size=position.size,
entry_price=position.entry_price,
exit_price=last_close, exit_price=last_close,
fees_bp=self.fees_bp, fees_bp=self.fees_bp,
) ))
trades.append(trade)
equity += trade.net_pnl # MtM unrealized per ogni bar in cui c'e' una posizione aperta.
equity_history[-1] = equity mtm = open_side.astype(np.float64) * (closes - open_entry) * size
if len(returns_history) >= 2: equity_arr = realized_pnl + mtm
returns_history[-1] = equity - equity_history[-2] # Returns = first diff dell'equity (col loop legacy il primo bar e' equity[0]-0).
returns_arr = np.concatenate(([equity_arr[0]], np.diff(equity_arr)))
return BacktestResult( return BacktestResult(
equity_curve=pd.Series(equity_history, index=ohlcv.index, name="equity"), equity_curve=pd.Series(equity_arr, index=ts_index, name="equity"),
returns=pd.Series(returns_history, index=ohlcv.index, name="returns"), returns=pd.Series(returns_arr, index=ts_index, name="returns"),
trades=trades, trades=trades,
) )
# Lo facade Position re-export e' tenuto per backward-compat con import legacy.
__all__ = ["BacktestEngine", "BacktestResult", "Position", "Side", "Signal", "Trade"]
@@ -23,14 +23,14 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings):
cerbero_mainnet_token: SecretStr | None = None cerbero_mainnet_token: SecretStr | None = None
cerbero_bot_tag: str = "swarm-poc-phase1" cerbero_bot_tag: str = "swarm-poc-phase1"
openrouter_api_key: SecretStr opus_agent_api_key: SecretStr
opus_agent_base_url: str = "https://opus-agent.tielogic.xyz"
llm_model_tier_s: str = "google/gemini-3-flash-preview" llm_model_tier_s: str = "claude-opus-4-7"
llm_model_tier_a: str = "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash" llm_model_tier_a: str = "claude-opus-4-7"
llm_model_tier_b: str = "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash" llm_model_tier_b: str = "claude-sonnet-4-6"
llm_model_tier_c: str = "qwen/qwen-2.5-72b-instruct" llm_model_tier_c: str = "claude-sonnet-4-6"
llm_model_tier_d: str = "openai/gpt-oss-20b" llm_model_tier_d: str = "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001"
openrouter_base_url: str = "https://openrouter.ai/api/v1"
run_name: str = "phase1-spike-001" run_name: str = "phase1-spike-001"
data_dir: Path = Field(default=Path("./data")) data_dir: Path = Field(default=Path("./data"))
@@ -263,7 +263,8 @@ def index() -> None:
refresh() refresh()
select.on_value_change(on_select_change) select.on_value_change(on_select_change)
ui.timer(REFRESH_INTERVAL_S, refresh) _timer = ui.timer(REFRESH_INTERVAL_S, refresh)
ui.context.client.on_disconnect(_timer.deactivate)
refresh() refresh()
@@ -353,7 +354,8 @@ def convergence() -> None:
refresh() refresh()
select.on_value_change(on_select_change) select.on_value_change(on_select_change)
ui.timer(REFRESH_INTERVAL_S, refresh) _timer = ui.timer(REFRESH_INTERVAL_S, refresh)
ui.context.client.on_disconnect(_timer.deactivate)
refresh() refresh()
@@ -535,7 +537,8 @@ def genomes() -> None:
select.on_value_change(on_select_change) select.on_value_change(on_select_change)
top_k_select.on_value_change(lambda _: refresh()) top_k_select.on_value_change(lambda _: refresh())
top_table.on("selection", on_row_selected) top_table.on("selection", on_row_selected)
ui.timer(REFRESH_INTERVAL_S, refresh) _timer = ui.timer(REFRESH_INTERVAL_S, refresh)
ui.context.client.on_disconnect(_timer.deactivate)
refresh() refresh()
@@ -8,11 +8,11 @@ from typing import Any
class ModelTier(StrEnum): class ModelTier(StrEnum):
S = "S" # top-tier reasoning (Opus / equivalent) via Anthropic S = "S" # top-tier reasoning → opus via OpusAgent
A = "A" # premium override via Anthropic A = "A" # premium → opus via OpusAgent
B = "B" # Sonnet 4.6 via Anthropic B = "B" # standard → sonnet via OpusAgent
C = "C" # Qwen 2.5 72B via OpenRouter C = "C" # default GA → sonnet via OpusAgent
D = "D" # ultra-economic (Llama / cheap models) via OpenRouter D = "D" # economic → haiku via OpusAgent
@dataclass @dataclass
@@ -101,6 +101,10 @@ class PromptLibrary:
domain_warnings: str = field(default="") # opzionale: warning di dominio (es. crypto 24/7) domain_warnings: str = field(default="") # opzionale: warning di dominio (es. crypto 24/7)
anti_patterns: str = field(default="") # NEW v3.1: lista esplicita di pattern da evitare anti_patterns: str = field(default="") # NEW v3.1: lista esplicita di pattern da evitare
output_priorities: str = field(default="") # NEW v3.1: trade-off espliciti di output output_priorities: str = field(default="") # NEW v3.1: trade-off espliciti di output
# NEW v3.2: firme formali (arity + range) di indicatori strategy-specific
# non noti al core. Iniettato in _SYSTEM_GRAMMAR_SPEC come estensione della
# lista "Leaf - indicatori" per consentire alla LLM di chiamarli correttamente.
custom_indicators_spec: str = field(default="")
def __post_init__(self) -> None: def __post_init__(self) -> None:
if not self.styles: if not self.styles:
@@ -120,6 +124,7 @@ class PromptLibrary:
("domain_warnings", self.domain_warnings), ("domain_warnings", self.domain_warnings),
("anti_patterns", self.anti_patterns), ("anti_patterns", self.anti_patterns),
("output_priorities", self.output_priorities), ("output_priorities", self.output_priorities),
("custom_indicators_spec", self.custom_indicators_spec),
): ):
if not isinstance(value, str): if not isinstance(value, str):
raise PromptLibraryError( raise PromptLibraryError(
@@ -142,6 +147,7 @@ class PromptLibrary:
domain_warnings="", domain_warnings="",
anti_patterns="", anti_patterns="",
output_priorities="", output_priorities="",
custom_indicators_spec="",
) )
@classmethod @classmethod
@@ -204,6 +210,12 @@ class PromptLibrary:
raise PromptLibraryError(f"anti_patterns deve essere stringa, non {type(anti_patterns_raw)}") raise PromptLibraryError(f"anti_patterns deve essere stringa, non {type(anti_patterns_raw)}")
if not isinstance(output_priorities_raw, str): if not isinstance(output_priorities_raw, str):
raise PromptLibraryError(f"output_priorities deve essere stringa, non {type(output_priorities_raw)}") raise PromptLibraryError(f"output_priorities deve essere stringa, non {type(output_priorities_raw)}")
# Parse new optional top-level field (v3.2)
custom_indicators_spec_raw = data.get("custom_indicators_spec", "")
if not isinstance(custom_indicators_spec_raw, str):
raise PromptLibraryError(
f"custom_indicators_spec deve essere stringa, non {type(custom_indicators_spec_raw)}"
)
return cls( return cls(
styles=styles, styles=styles,
@@ -214,6 +226,7 @@ class PromptLibrary:
domain_warnings=domain_warnings, domain_warnings=domain_warnings,
anti_patterns=anti_patterns_raw, anti_patterns=anti_patterns_raw,
output_priorities=output_priorities_raw, output_priorities=output_priorities_raw,
custom_indicators_spec=custom_indicators_spec_raw,
) )
@property @property
@@ -1,10 +1,12 @@
from __future__ import annotations from __future__ import annotations
import hashlib
import logging
import threading
import time
from dataclasses import dataclass from dataclasses import dataclass
from typing import Any
import openai import httpx
from openai import OpenAI
from tenacity import ( from tenacity import (
retry, retry,
retry_if_exception_type, retry_if_exception_type,
@@ -14,26 +16,33 @@ from tenacity import (
from ..genome.hypothesis import HypothesisAgentGenome, ModelTier from ..genome.hypothesis import HypothesisAgentGenome, ModelTier
# Modelli configurati per Phase 1 — tutti via OpenRouter logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
MODEL_TIER_S = "google/gemini-3-flash-preview"
MODEL_TIER_A = "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash" MODEL_TIER_MAP: dict[ModelTier, str] = {
MODEL_TIER_B = "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash" ModelTier.S: "claude-opus-4-7",
MODEL_TIER_C = "qwen/qwen-2.5-72b-instruct" ModelTier.A: "claude-opus-4-7",
MODEL_TIER_D = "openai/gpt-oss-20b" ModelTier.B: "claude-sonnet-4-6",
OPENROUTER_BASE_URL = "https://openrouter.ai/api/v1" ModelTier.C: "claude-sonnet-4-6",
ModelTier.D: "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001",
}
class EmptyCompletionError(RuntimeError): class EmptyCompletionError(RuntimeError):
pass pass
# Errori transient: retry. Auth/InvalidRequest: NO retry. class OpusAgentError(RuntimeError):
# RateLimitError (HTTP 429) ora retryable: provider OpenRouter come DeepInfra pass
# applicano rate limit upstream temporaneo, recuperabile con backoff.
class OpusAgentTransientError(RuntimeError):
pass
_RETRYABLE_EXCEPTIONS: tuple[type[BaseException], ...] = ( _RETRYABLE_EXCEPTIONS: tuple[type[BaseException], ...] = (
openai.APIConnectionError, httpx.ConnectError,
openai.APITimeoutError, httpx.TimeoutException,
openai.InternalServerError, OpusAgentTransientError,
openai.RateLimitError,
EmptyCompletionError, EmptyCompletionError,
) )
@@ -45,50 +54,99 @@ class CompletionResult:
output_tokens: int output_tokens: int
tier: ModelTier tier: ModelTier
model: str model: str
session_id: str | None = None
class LLMClient: class LLMClient:
# Provider OpenRouter da escludere di default. Novita rifiuta /completions
# endpoint per modelli Qwen 2.x — vedi bug 2026-05-12.
DEFAULT_PROVIDER_IGNORE: tuple[str, ...] = ("Novita",)
def __init__( def __init__(
self, self,
openrouter_api_key: str, opus_agent_api_key: str,
model_tier_s: str = MODEL_TIER_S, opus_agent_base_url: str = "https://opus-agent.tielogic.xyz",
model_tier_a: str = MODEL_TIER_A, model_tier_s: str = "claude-opus-4-7",
model_tier_b: str = MODEL_TIER_B, model_tier_a: str = "claude-opus-4-7",
model_tier_c: str = MODEL_TIER_C, model_tier_b: str = "claude-sonnet-4-6",
model_tier_d: str = MODEL_TIER_D, model_tier_c: str = "claude-sonnet-4-6",
openrouter_base_url: str = OPENROUTER_BASE_URL, model_tier_d: str = "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001",
provider_ignore: tuple[str, ...] | None = None, poll_interval: float = 3.0,
poll_timeout: float = 180.0,
) -> None: ) -> None:
self.model_tier_s = model_tier_s self._base_url = opus_agent_base_url.rstrip("/")
self.model_tier_a = model_tier_a self._api_key = opus_agent_api_key
self.model_tier_b = model_tier_b self._tier_map: dict[ModelTier, str] = {
self.model_tier_c = model_tier_c
self.model_tier_d = model_tier_d
self.openrouter_base_url = openrouter_base_url
self._provider_ignore = (
provider_ignore if provider_ignore is not None else self.DEFAULT_PROVIDER_IGNORE
)
self._tier_models: dict[ModelTier, str] = {
ModelTier.S: model_tier_s, ModelTier.S: model_tier_s,
ModelTier.A: model_tier_a, ModelTier.A: model_tier_a,
ModelTier.B: model_tier_b, ModelTier.B: model_tier_b,
ModelTier.C: model_tier_c, ModelTier.C: model_tier_c,
ModelTier.D: model_tier_d, ModelTier.D: model_tier_d,
} }
# Timeout esplicito (60s) per prevenire hang infinito su connessioni self._poll_interval = poll_interval
# stallate. Tenacity retry su APITimeoutError gestisce il recovery. self._poll_timeout = poll_timeout
self._client = OpenAI( self._topic_cache: dict[str, str] = {}
api_key=openrouter_api_key, self._topic_lock = threading.Lock()
base_url=openrouter_base_url, self._client = httpx.Client(
timeout=60.0, base_url=self._base_url,
headers={"X-Api-Key": self._api_key, "Content-Type": "application/json"},
timeout=30.0,
) )
def _get_or_create_topic(self, system_prompt: str) -> str:
prompt_hash = hashlib.sha256(system_prompt.encode()).hexdigest()[:16]
if prompt_hash in self._topic_cache:
return self._topic_cache[prompt_hash]
with self._topic_lock:
if prompt_hash in self._topic_cache:
return self._topic_cache[prompt_hash]
topic_name = f"swarm-{prompt_hash}"
resp = self._client.post("/api/topics", json={
"name": topic_name,
"system_prompt": system_prompt,
})
if resp.status_code == 409:
list_resp = self._client.get("/api/topics")
list_resp.raise_for_status()
for topic in list_resp.json()["data"]:
if topic["name"] == topic_name:
self._topic_cache[prompt_hash] = topic["id"]
return topic["id"]
raise OpusAgentError(f"Topic {topic_name} conflict but not found")
if resp.status_code >= 500:
raise OpusAgentTransientError(f"Server error {resp.status_code}")
resp.raise_for_status()
topic_id = resp.json()["data"]["id"]
self._topic_cache[prompt_hash] = topic_id
logger.debug("Created topic %s -> %s", topic_name, topic_id)
return topic_id
def _poll_result(self, request_id: str) -> dict:
deadline = time.monotonic() + self._poll_timeout
while time.monotonic() < deadline:
resp = self._client.get(f"/api/requests/{request_id}")
resp.raise_for_status()
data = resp.json()["data"]
status = data["status"]
if status == "completed":
return data
if status == "failed":
error = data.get("error") or "unknown error"
raise OpusAgentError(f"Request {request_id} failed: {error}")
time.sleep(self._poll_interval)
raise OpusAgentTransientError(
f"Request {request_id} timed out after {self._poll_timeout}s"
)
def close_session(self, session_id: str) -> None:
try:
self._client.delete(f"/api/sessions/{session_id}")
except httpx.HTTPError:
logger.debug("Failed to close session %s", session_id)
@retry( @retry(
stop=stop_after_attempt(5), stop=stop_after_attempt(3),
wait=wait_exponential(multiplier=2.0, min=2.0, max=30.0), wait=wait_exponential(multiplier=2.0, min=2.0, max=30.0),
retry=retry_if_exception_type(_RETRYABLE_EXCEPTIONS), retry=retry_if_exception_type(_RETRYABLE_EXCEPTIONS),
reraise=True, reraise=True,
@@ -99,29 +157,45 @@ class LLMClient:
system: str, system: str,
user: str, user: str,
max_tokens: int = 2000, max_tokens: int = 2000,
session_id: str | None = None,
summarize: bool = False,
) -> CompletionResult: ) -> CompletionResult:
model = self._tier_models[genome.model_tier] model = self._tier_map[genome.model_tier]
extra_body: dict[str, Any] = {} topic_id = self._get_or_create_topic(system)
if self._provider_ignore:
extra_body["provider"] = {"ignore": list(self._provider_ignore)} prompt = f"[SYSTEM]\n{system}\n\n[USER]\n{user}" if session_id in (None, "new") else user
resp = self._client.chat.completions.create(
model=model, body: dict = {
messages=[ "topic_id": topic_id,
{"role": "system", "content": system}, "prompt": prompt,
{"role": "user", "content": user}, "model": model,
], }
temperature=genome.temperature, if session_id is not None:
top_p=genome.top_p, body["session_id"] = session_id
max_tokens=max_tokens, if summarize:
extra_body=extra_body or None, body["summarize"] = True
)
if not resp.choices or resp.choices[0].message.content is None: resp = self._client.post("/api/requests", json=body)
raise EmptyCompletionError(f"empty response from {model}")
usage = resp.usage if resp.status_code == 429:
raise OpusAgentTransientError("Rate limited")
if resp.status_code >= 500:
raise OpusAgentTransientError(f"Server error {resp.status_code}")
if resp.status_code != 202:
raise OpusAgentError(f"Unexpected status {resp.status_code}: {resp.text}")
request_id = resp.json()["data"]["id"]
result = self._poll_result(request_id)
text = result.get("result") or ""
if not text:
raise EmptyCompletionError(f"empty response from OpusAgent ({model})")
return CompletionResult( return CompletionResult(
text=resp.choices[0].message.content, text=text,
input_tokens=usage.prompt_tokens if usage else 0, input_tokens=0,
output_tokens=usage.completion_tokens if usage else 0, output_tokens=0,
tier=genome.model_tier, tier=genome.model_tier,
model=model, model=model,
session_id=result.get("session_id"),
) )
@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ possa leggere lo stato a run terminato (o in corso).
from __future__ import annotations from __future__ import annotations
import random import random
from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor
from dataclasses import dataclass, field from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from pathlib import Path from pathlib import Path
@@ -20,13 +21,13 @@ import pandas as pd # type: ignore[import-untyped]
from ..agents.adversarial import AdversarialAgent from ..agents.adversarial import AdversarialAgent
from ..agents.falsification import FalsificationAgent from ..agents.falsification import FalsificationAgent
from ..agents.hypothesis import HypothesisAgent from ..agents.hypothesis import HypothesisAgent, HypothesisProposal, MarketSummary
from ..agents.market_summary import build_market_summary from ..agents.market_summary import build_market_summary
from ..ga.fitness import compute_fitness from ..ga.fitness import compute_fitness
from ..ga.initial import build_initial_population from ..ga.initial import build_initial_population
from ..ga.loop import GAConfig, next_generation from ..ga.loop import GAConfig, next_generation
from ..ga.summary import generation_summary from ..ga.summary import generation_summary
from ..genome.hypothesis import ModelTier from ..genome.hypothesis import HypothesisAgentGenome, ModelTier
from ..genome.mutation import set_cognitive_styles from ..genome.mutation import set_cognitive_styles
from ..genome.prompt_library import PromptLibrary from ..genome.prompt_library import PromptLibrary
from ..llm.client import LLMClient from ..llm.client import LLMClient
@@ -73,6 +74,29 @@ class RunConfig:
# i 6 builtin (PromptLibrary.default()). Tipicamente caricata da # i 6 builtin (PromptLibrary.default()). Tipicamente caricata da
# strategy_crypto/prompts.json via PromptLibrary.from_json(). # strategy_crypto/prompts.json via PromptLibrary.from_json().
prompt_library: PromptLibrary | None = None prompt_library: PromptLibrary | None = None
# Numero di propose() LLM concorrenti per generazione. 1 = sequenziale (default,
# backward compat). OpusAgent processa in coda FIFO; concurrency > 1
# accoda piu' richieste in parallelo ma il throughput dipende dal server.
llm_concurrency: int = 1
def _parallel_propose(
agent: HypothesisAgent,
genomes: list[HypothesisAgentGenome],
market: MarketSummary,
n_workers: int,
) -> list[HypothesisProposal]:
"""Esegue ``agent.propose()`` su una lista di genomi, opzionalmente in parallelo.
``n_workers <= 1`` mantiene il comportamento serial originale (ordine fisso,
determinismo data un seed). ``n_workers > 1`` usa un thread pool: l'order
dei risultati e' preservato (1:1 con ``genomes``). LLMClient (OpusAgent)
e' thread-safe; ``PromptLibrary`` e ``HypothesisAgent`` non hanno stato mutabile.
"""
if n_workers <= 1 or len(genomes) <= 1:
return [agent.propose(g, market) for g in genomes]
with ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=n_workers) as pool:
return list(pool.map(lambda g: agent.propose(g, market), genomes))
def run_phase1( def run_phase1(
@@ -88,10 +112,16 @@ def run_phase1(
repo = Repository(cfg.db_path) repo = Repository(cfg.db_path)
repo.init_schema() repo.init_schema()
# Escludi prompt_library (PromptLibrary dataclass non e' JSON-serializable);
# salva solo i nomi degli stili per reproducibility.
config_dict = { config_dict = {
**cfg.__dict__, **{k: v for k, v in cfg.__dict__.items() if k != "prompt_library"},
"db_path": str(cfg.db_path), "db_path": str(cfg.db_path),
"model_tier": cfg.model_tier.value, "model_tier": cfg.model_tier.value,
"prompt_library_styles": (
list(cfg.prompt_library.cognitive_styles)
if cfg.prompt_library is not None else None
),
} }
run_id = repo.create_run(name=cfg.run_name, config=config_dict) run_id = repo.create_run(name=cfg.run_name, config=config_dict)
@@ -142,11 +172,20 @@ def run_phase1(
try: try:
for gen in range(cfg.n_generations): for gen in range(cfg.n_generations):
# Step 1: raccogli i genomi da valutare in questa generazione (esclude
# elite gia' presenti nella cache fitnesses) e lancia propose() in
# parallelo. La sezione DB-write resta serial sotto.
uncached = [g for g in population if g.id not in fitnesses]
proposals = _parallel_propose(
hypothesis_agent, uncached, market, cfg.llm_concurrency
)
proposal_by_id = {g.id: p for g, p in zip(uncached, proposals, strict=True)}
for genome in population: for genome in population:
if genome.id in fitnesses: if genome.id in fitnesses:
continue # elite gia' valutata in generazione precedente continue # elite gia' valutata in generazione precedente
repo.save_genome(run_id=run_id, generation_idx=gen, genome=genome) repo.save_genome(run_id=run_id, generation_idx=gen, genome=genome)
proposal = hypothesis_agent.propose(genome, market) proposal = proposal_by_id[genome.id]
# Registra costo per OGNI completion (incluse retry). # Registra costo per OGNI completion (incluse retry).
for completion in proposal.completions: for completion in proposal.completions:
cost_record = cost_tracker.record( cost_record = cost_tracker.record(
@@ -220,7 +259,7 @@ def run_phase1(
cfg.fitness_combined_alpha * fit cfg.fitness_combined_alpha * fit
+ (1.0 - cfg.fitness_combined_alpha) * fit_oos_inloop + (1.0 - cfg.fitness_combined_alpha) * fit_oos_inloop
) )
except Exception: # noqa: BLE001 except Exception:
pass # fallback: usa solo IS pass # fallback: usa solo IS
repo.save_evaluation( repo.save_evaluation(
run_id=run_id, run_id=run_id,
@@ -261,7 +300,7 @@ def run_phase1(
# WFA re-eval: i top_k genomi (by fitness in-sample > 0) vengono rivalutati # WFA re-eval: i top_k genomi (by fitness in-sample > 0) vengono rivalutati
# sul test_ohlcv. Le metriche OOS finiscono in evaluations.fitness_oos etc. # sul test_ohlcv. Le metriche OOS finiscono in evaluations.fitness_oos etc.
if test_ohlcv is not None and len(test_ohlcv) >= 100: if test_ohlcv is not None and len(test_ohlcv) >= 100:
from ..agents.hypothesis import _try_parse # noqa: PLC0415 from ..agents.hypothesis import _try_parse
all_evals = repo.list_evaluations(run_id) all_evals = repo.list_evaluations(run_id)
top_evals = sorted( top_evals = sorted(
@@ -276,7 +315,7 @@ def run_phase1(
try: try:
fals_oos = falsification_agent.evaluate(strategy, test_ohlcv) fals_oos = falsification_agent.evaluate(strategy, test_ohlcv)
adv_oos = adversarial_agent.review(strategy, test_ohlcv) adv_oos = adversarial_agent.review(strategy, test_ohlcv)
except Exception: # noqa: BLE001 except Exception:
continue continue
fit_oos = compute_fitness( fit_oos = compute_fitness(
fals_oos, adv_oos, fals_oos, adv_oos,
@@ -25,6 +25,12 @@ from typing import Any
import numpy as np import numpy as np
import pandas as pd # type: ignore[import-untyped] import pandas as pd # type: ignore[import-untyped]
from strategy_pythagoras.indicators import (
candle_pattern as _public_candle_pattern,
fractal_mirror as _public_fractal_mirror,
pythagorean_ratio as _public_pythagorean_ratio,
)
from ..backtest.orders import Side from ..backtest.orders import Side
from .parser import ( from .parser import (
FeatureNode, FeatureNode,
@@ -126,6 +132,22 @@ def _ind_macd(
return macd_line - signal_line return macd_line - signal_line
def _ind_candle_pattern(df: pd.DataFrame, *params: float) -> pd.Series:
# Adapter: il dispatch in _eval_node fa ``fn(df, *node.params)``, ma la
# public API in strategy_pythagoras.indicators accetta ``params: list[float]``
# come singolo argomento. Re-pack qui per mantenere indicators.py testabile
# in isolamento.
return _public_candle_pattern(df, list(params))
def _ind_pythagorean_ratio(df: pd.DataFrame, lookback: float) -> pd.Series:
return _public_pythagorean_ratio(df, [lookback])
def _ind_fractal_mirror(df: pd.DataFrame, k: float, axis_int: float) -> pd.Series:
return _public_fractal_mirror(df, [k, axis_int])
# Annotated as ``dict[str, Any]`` deliberately: each indicator has its own # Annotated as ``dict[str, Any]`` deliberately: each indicator has its own
# arity and parameter names, so a single ``Callable`` signature would be a # arity and parameter names, so a single ``Callable`` signature would be a
# lie. Dispatch happens in :func:`_eval_node`, which validates the verb name # lie. Dispatch happens in :func:`_eval_node`, which validates the verb name
@@ -139,6 +161,9 @@ INDICATOR_FNS: dict[str, Any] = {
"realized_vol": _ind_realized_vol, "realized_vol": _ind_realized_vol,
"macd": _ind_macd, "macd": _ind_macd,
"macd_pct": _ind_macd_pct, "macd_pct": _ind_macd_pct,
"candle_pattern": _ind_candle_pattern,
"pythagorean_ratio": _ind_pythagorean_ratio,
"fractal_mirror": _ind_fractal_mirror,
} }
_TIME_FEATURE_FNS: dict[str, Callable[[pd.DatetimeIndex], pd.Series]] = { _TIME_FEATURE_FNS: dict[str, Callable[[pd.DatetimeIndex], pd.Series]] = {
@@ -17,7 +17,8 @@ ACTION_VALUES: frozenset[str] = frozenset(
KIND_VALUES: frozenset[str] = frozenset({"indicator", "feature", "literal"}) KIND_VALUES: frozenset[str] = frozenset({"indicator", "feature", "literal"})
KNOWN_INDICATORS: frozenset[str] = frozenset( KNOWN_INDICATORS: frozenset[str] = frozenset(
{"sma", "sma_pct", "rsi", "atr", "atr_pct", "macd", "macd_pct", "realized_vol"} {"sma", "sma_pct", "rsi", "atr", "atr_pct", "macd", "macd_pct", "realized_vol",
"candle_pattern", "pythagorean_ratio", "fractal_mirror"}
) )
KNOWN_FEATURES: frozenset[str] = frozenset( KNOWN_FEATURES: frozenset[str] = frozenset(
{"open", "high", "low", "close", "volume", {"open", "high", "low", "close", "volume",
@@ -39,6 +39,10 @@ INDICATOR_ARITY: dict[str, tuple[int, int]] = {
"realized_vol": (1, 1), # window "realized_vol": (1, 1), # window
"macd": (0, 3), # fast, slow, signal (tutti opzionali) "macd": (0, 3), # fast, slow, signal (tutti opzionali)
"macd_pct": (0, 3), # macd/close, frazionale (per confronti con literal) "macd_pct": (0, 3), # macd/close, frazionale (per confronti con literal)
# Pythagoras indicators (params encoded as floats)
"candle_pattern": (4, 13), # [length, sym0, ..., sym_{length-1}]
"pythagorean_ratio": (1, 1), # lookback in [12,200]
"fractal_mirror": (2, 2), # k in [3,12], axis_int in {0=h,1=v}
} }
@@ -110,3 +114,37 @@ def _validate_indicator(node: IndicatorNode) -> None:
raise ValidationError( raise ValidationError(
f"indicator '{node.name}' arity {n_params} out of [{min_p},{max_p}]" f"indicator '{node.name}' arity {n_params} out of [{min_p},{max_p}]"
) )
# Pythagoras-specific param semantics
name = node.name
if name == "candle_pattern":
length = int(node.params[0])
if not (3 <= length <= 12):
raise ValidationError(
f"candle_pattern length must be in [3,12], got {length}"
)
if n_params != 1 + length:
raise ValidationError(
f"candle_pattern: expected 1+length={1 + length} params, got {n_params}"
)
for i, sym in enumerate(node.params[1:], start=1):
sym_int = int(sym)
if sym_int not in (0, 1, 2):
raise ValidationError(
f"candle_pattern sym[{i - 1}] must be 0(U)/1(D)/2(doji), got {sym}"
)
elif name == "pythagorean_ratio":
lookback = int(node.params[0])
if not (12 <= lookback <= 200):
raise ValidationError(
f"pythagorean_ratio lookback in [12,200], got {lookback}"
)
elif name == "fractal_mirror":
k = int(node.params[0])
if not (3 <= k <= 12):
raise ValidationError(f"fractal_mirror k must be in [3,12], got {k}")
axis_int = int(node.params[1])
if axis_int not in (0, 1):
raise ValidationError(
f"fractal_mirror axis must be 0(h)/1(v), got {axis_int}"
)
@@ -108,7 +108,13 @@ def test_e2e_wfa_populates_fitness_oos(
fake_llm, fake_llm,
mocker, mocker,
): ):
"""WFA: train_split=0.7 → top genomi devono avere fitness_oos popolato.""" """WFA: train_split=0.7 → top genomi devono avere fitness_oos popolato.
Usa fitness v2 con hard-kill minimale (solo no_trades): il fixture sintetico
non produce strategie profittevoli, quindi i check aggressivi
fees_eat_alpha/negative_net_pnl azzererebbero tutti i genomi rendendo
inverificabile il wiring WFA.
"""
cfg = RunConfig( cfg = RunConfig(
run_name="e2e-wfa-test", run_name="e2e-wfa-test",
population_size=5, population_size=5,
@@ -125,6 +131,7 @@ def test_e2e_wfa_populates_fitness_oos(
db_path=tmp_path / "runs.db", db_path=tmp_path / "runs.db",
wfa_train_split=0.7, wfa_train_split=0.7,
wfa_top_k=3, wfa_top_k=3,
fitness_hard_kill_findings=("no_trades",),
) )
run_id = run_phase1(cfg, ohlcv=synthetic_ohlcv, llm=fake_llm) run_id = run_phase1(cfg, ohlcv=synthetic_ohlcv, llm=fake_llm)
repo = Repository(db_path=tmp_path / "runs.db") repo = Repository(db_path=tmp_path / "runs.db")
@@ -3,7 +3,6 @@ import json
import numpy as np import numpy as np
import pandas as pd import pandas as pd
import pytest import pytest
from multi_swarm_core.agents.adversarial import ( from multi_swarm_core.agents.adversarial import (
AdversarialAgent, AdversarialAgent,
AdversarialReport, AdversarialReport,
@@ -54,7 +53,10 @@ def test_degenerate_always_long_flagged(ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
assert any(f.name == "degenerate" and f.severity == Severity.HIGH for f in report.findings) assert any(f.name == "degenerate" and f.severity == Severity.HIGH for f in report.findings)
def test_no_findings_on_reasonable_strategy(ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None: def test_rsi_mean_reversion_loses_money_on_synthetic_data(ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
"""RSI mean-reversion sul fixture sintetico ha net negativo: deve firare
negative_net_pnl (deal-breaker). Conferma che il check cattura strategie
che perdono sul training, indipendentemente dal motivo (no edge / fees)."""
src = json.dumps( src = json.dumps(
{ {
"rules": [ "rules": [
@@ -84,8 +86,59 @@ def test_no_findings_on_reasonable_strategy(ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
ast = parse_strategy(src) ast = parse_strategy(src)
agent = AdversarialAgent() agent = AdversarialAgent()
report = agent.review(ast, ohlcv) report = agent.review(ast, ohlcv)
assert any(
f.name == "negative_net_pnl" and f.severity == Severity.HIGH
for f in report.findings
)
def test_profitable_strategy_no_high_findings(
monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame
) -> None:
"""Sanity test: una strategia con gross > 0 e fees << gross + n_trades ragionevole
+ signal misto non deve produrre nessun finding HIGH."""
n = 15
# entry=100 exit=110 gross=10 per trade, fees a 5bp -> 0.105 per trade
# totali: gross=150, fees=1.575 -> net=+148.4
fake_trades = [
_make_trade(
ohlcv.index[i * 30],
ohlcv.index[i * 30 + 1],
entry_price=100.0,
exit_price=110.0,
)
for i in range(n)
]
# 50/50 LONG/FLAT per evitare degenerate/flat_too_long/time_in_market.
fake_signals = pd.Series(
[Side.LONG if i % 2 == 0 else Side.FLAT for i in range(len(ohlcv))],
index=ohlcv.index,
dtype=object,
)
def fake_run(self, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame, signals: pd.Series) -> BacktestResult: # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return BacktestResult(
equity_curve=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="equity"),
returns=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="returns"),
trades=fake_trades,
)
def fake_compile(strategy): # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return lambda df: fake_signals
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm_core.agents.adversarial.BacktestEngine.run", fake_run
)
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm_core.agents.adversarial.compile_strategy", fake_compile
)
ast = parse_strategy(_MINIMAL_STRATEGY_SRC)
report = AdversarialAgent().review(ast, ohlcv)
high_findings = [f for f in report.findings if f.severity == Severity.HIGH] high_findings = [f for f in report.findings if f.severity == Severity.HIGH]
assert len(high_findings) == 0 assert high_findings == [], (
f"expected no HIGH findings, got: {[f.name for f in high_findings]}"
)
def test_zero_trade_strategy_flagged(ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None: def test_zero_trade_strategy_flagged(ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
@@ -383,6 +436,55 @@ def test_fees_eat_alpha_flagged(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch,
) )
def test_negative_net_pnl_fires_on_negative_gross(
monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame
) -> None:
"""gross_pnl < 0 (perdente direzionale) -> HIGH negative_net_pnl.
fees_eat_alpha NON deve firare perche' la sua condizione richiede gross > 0.
"""
n = 15
# entry=100 exit=95 gross=-5 per trade (LONG perdente)
fake_trades = [
_make_trade(
ohlcv.index[i * 30],
ohlcv.index[i * 30 + 1],
entry_price=100.0,
exit_price=95.0,
)
for i in range(n)
]
fake_signals = pd.Series(
[Side.LONG if i % 2 == 0 else Side.FLAT for i in range(len(ohlcv))],
index=ohlcv.index,
dtype=object,
)
def fake_run(self, ohlcv, signals): # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return BacktestResult(
equity_curve=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="equity"),
returns=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="returns"),
trades=fake_trades,
)
def fake_compile(strategy): # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return lambda df: fake_signals
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm_core.agents.adversarial.BacktestEngine.run", fake_run
)
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm_core.agents.adversarial.compile_strategy", fake_compile
)
ast = parse_strategy(_MINIMAL_STRATEGY_SRC)
report = AdversarialAgent().review(ast, ohlcv)
assert any(
f.name == "negative_net_pnl" and f.severity == Severity.HIGH
for f in report.findings
)
assert not any(f.name == "fees_eat_alpha" for f in report.findings)
def test_time_in_market_too_high_flagged(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch, def test_time_in_market_too_high_flagged(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch,
ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None: ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
"""Signal LONG per >80% delle bar -> HIGH time_in_market_too_high.""" """Signal LONG per >80% delle bar -> HIGH time_in_market_too_high."""
@@ -0,0 +1,160 @@
"""Parity check: engine vettorializzato vs reference iterrows implementation.
Mantiene una copia inline del loop ``iterrows`` come reference per garantire
che la vettorizzazione produca esattamente gli stessi trades, equity_curve e
returns su input pseudocasuali, indipendentemente dal regime di prezzo.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import pytest
from multi_swarm_core.backtest.engine import BacktestEngine, BacktestResult
from multi_swarm_core.backtest.orders import Position, Side, Trade
def _legacy_run(
ohlcv: pd.DataFrame, signals: pd.Series, fees_bp: float = 5.0
) -> BacktestResult:
"""Reference implementation: il loop iterrows originale (pre-vectorize).
Mantenuto qui esclusivamente come oracolo per i test di parità.
"""
signals = signals.reindex(ohlcv.index).ffill().fillna(Side.FLAT)
shifted = [Side.FLAT, *list(signals.iloc[:-1])]
executed_side = pd.Series(shifted, index=ohlcv.index, dtype=object)
position: Position | None = None
position_entry_ts: pd.Timestamp | None = None
trades: list[Trade] = []
equity = 0.0
equity_history: list[float] = []
returns_history: list[float] = []
prev_equity = 0.0
for ts, row in ohlcv.iterrows():
target_side = executed_side.loc[ts]
current_side = position.side if position else Side.FLAT
if target_side != current_side:
if position is not None:
assert position_entry_ts is not None
trade = Trade(
entry_ts=position_entry_ts,
exit_ts=ts,
side=position.side,
size=position.size,
entry_price=position.entry_price,
exit_price=float(row["open"]),
fees_bp=fees_bp,
)
trades.append(trade)
equity += trade.net_pnl
position = None
position_entry_ts = None
if target_side in (Side.LONG, Side.SHORT):
position = Position(
side=target_side, entry_price=float(row["open"]), size=1.0
)
position_entry_ts = ts
mark = float(row["close"])
mtm = position.unrealized_pnl(mark) if position else 0.0
current_equity = equity + mtm
equity_history.append(current_equity)
returns_history.append(current_equity - prev_equity)
prev_equity = current_equity
if position is not None:
assert position_entry_ts is not None
last_ts = ohlcv.index[-1]
last_close = float(ohlcv["close"].iloc[-1])
trade = Trade(
entry_ts=position_entry_ts,
exit_ts=last_ts,
side=position.side,
size=position.size,
entry_price=position.entry_price,
exit_price=last_close,
fees_bp=fees_bp,
)
trades.append(trade)
equity += trade.net_pnl
equity_history[-1] = equity
if len(returns_history) >= 2:
returns_history[-1] = equity - equity_history[-2]
return BacktestResult(
equity_curve=pd.Series(equity_history, index=ohlcv.index, name="equity"),
returns=pd.Series(returns_history, index=ohlcv.index, name="returns"),
trades=trades,
)
def _random_ohlcv(n: int, seed: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
rng = np.random.default_rng(seed)
rets = rng.normal(0.0, 0.01, size=n)
close = 100.0 * np.exp(np.cumsum(rets))
idx = pd.date_range("2024-01-01", periods=n, freq="1h", tz="UTC")
return pd.DataFrame(
{
"open": close * (1 + rng.normal(0, 0.001, n)),
"high": close * 1.005,
"low": close * 0.995,
"close": close,
"volume": rng.uniform(1.0, 100.0, n),
},
index=idx,
)
def _random_signals(n: int, seed: int, p_change: float = 0.1) -> pd.Series:
"""Segnali con persistenza: ad ogni bar con prob p_change cambia stato."""
rng = np.random.default_rng(seed + 999)
states = [Side.LONG, Side.SHORT, Side.FLAT]
out: list[Side] = [rng.choice(states)]
for _ in range(1, n):
out.append(rng.choice(states) if rng.random() < p_change else out[-1])
idx = pd.date_range("2024-01-01", periods=n, freq="1h", tz="UTC")
return pd.Series(out, index=idx, dtype=object)
@pytest.mark.parametrize("seed", [0, 1, 42, 123, 999])
def test_vectorized_equals_legacy(seed: int) -> None:
df = _random_ohlcv(500, seed)
signals = _random_signals(500, seed)
engine = BacktestEngine(fees_bp=5.0)
new = engine.run(df, signals)
ref = _legacy_run(df, signals, fees_bp=5.0)
pd.testing.assert_series_equal(
new.equity_curve, ref.equity_curve, rtol=1e-9, atol=1e-9
)
pd.testing.assert_series_equal(
new.returns, ref.returns, rtol=1e-9, atol=1e-9
)
assert len(new.trades) == len(ref.trades)
for nt, rt in zip(new.trades, ref.trades, strict=True):
assert nt.entry_ts == rt.entry_ts
assert nt.exit_ts == rt.exit_ts
assert nt.side == rt.side
assert nt.entry_price == pytest.approx(rt.entry_price, abs=1e-12)
assert nt.exit_price == pytest.approx(rt.exit_price, abs=1e-12)
assert nt.net_pnl == pytest.approx(rt.net_pnl, abs=1e-12)
def test_vectorized_handles_position_still_open_at_end() -> None:
"""Edge case: signal LONG fino all'ultimo bar (exit a close[-1] forced)."""
df = _random_ohlcv(100, seed=7)
signals = pd.Series([Side.LONG] * 100, index=df.index)
new = BacktestEngine(fees_bp=10.0).run(df, signals)
ref = _legacy_run(df, signals, fees_bp=10.0)
pd.testing.assert_series_equal(new.equity_curve, ref.equity_curve, atol=1e-9)
assert len(new.trades) == 1
assert new.trades[0].side == Side.LONG
def test_vectorized_zero_signals_no_trades() -> None:
df = _random_ohlcv(50, seed=3)
signals = pd.Series([Side.FLAT] * 50, index=df.index)
new = BacktestEngine().run(df, signals)
assert len(new.trades) == 0
assert (new.equity_curve == 0).all()
+16 -32
View File
@@ -18,13 +18,14 @@ def test_settings_loads_from_env(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
monkeypatch.setenv("CERBERO_TESTNET_TOKEN", "tok-test") monkeypatch.setenv("CERBERO_TESTNET_TOKEN", "tok-test")
monkeypatch.setenv("CERBERO_MAINNET_TOKEN", "tok-main") monkeypatch.setenv("CERBERO_MAINNET_TOKEN", "tok-main")
monkeypatch.setenv("CERBERO_BOT_TAG", "swarm-poc-phase1") monkeypatch.setenv("CERBERO_BOT_TAG", "swarm-poc-phase1")
monkeypatch.setenv("OPENROUTER_API_KEY", "or-key") monkeypatch.setenv("OPUS_AGENT_API_KEY", "oa-key")
monkeypatch.setenv("RUN_NAME", "test-run") monkeypatch.setenv("RUN_NAME", "test-run")
s = Settings() # type: ignore[call-arg] s = Settings() # type: ignore[call-arg]
assert s.cerbero_base_url == "http://test:9000" assert s.cerbero_base_url == "http://test:9000"
assert s.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value() == "tok-test" assert s.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value() == "tok-test"
assert s.opus_agent_api_key.get_secret_value() == "oa-key"
assert s.run_name == "test-run" assert s.run_name == "test-run"
assert s.data_dir.name == "data" assert s.data_dir.name == "data"
assert s.db_path.name == "runs.db" assert s.db_path.name == "runs.db"
@@ -32,50 +33,33 @@ def test_settings_loads_from_env(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
def test_settings_requires_tokens(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None: def test_settings_requires_tokens(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
monkeypatch.delenv("CERBERO_TESTNET_TOKEN", raising=False) monkeypatch.delenv("CERBERO_TESTNET_TOKEN", raising=False)
monkeypatch.delenv("OPENROUTER_API_KEY", raising=False) monkeypatch.delenv("OPUS_AGENT_API_KEY", raising=False)
from pydantic import ValidationError from pydantic import ValidationError
with pytest.raises(ValidationError): with pytest.raises(ValidationError):
# Disable .env loading to keep the test deterministic regardless of
# whether a developer's local .env exists and is populated.
Settings(_env_file=None) # type: ignore[call-arg] Settings(_env_file=None) # type: ignore[call-arg]
def test_settings_loads_llm_model_overrides(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None: def test_settings_opus_agent_defaults(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
monkeypatch.setenv("CERBERO_TESTNET_TOKEN", "tok-test") monkeypatch.setenv("CERBERO_TESTNET_TOKEN", "tok-test")
monkeypatch.setenv("OPENROUTER_API_KEY", "or-key") monkeypatch.setenv("OPUS_AGENT_API_KEY", "oa-key")
monkeypatch.setenv("LLM_MODEL_TIER_S", "claude-mega-x") monkeypatch.delenv("OPUS_AGENT_BASE_URL", raising=False)
monkeypatch.setenv("LLM_MODEL_TIER_A", "claude-premium-y")
monkeypatch.setenv("LLM_MODEL_TIER_B", "claude-opus-4-7")
monkeypatch.setenv("LLM_MODEL_TIER_C", "deepseek/deepseek-chat")
monkeypatch.setenv("LLM_MODEL_TIER_D", "mistralai/mistral-7b")
monkeypatch.setenv("OPENROUTER_BASE_URL", "https://example.com/api/v1")
s = Settings(_env_file=None) # type: ignore[call-arg] s = Settings(_env_file=None) # type: ignore[call-arg]
assert s.llm_model_tier_s == "claude-mega-x" assert s.opus_agent_base_url == "https://opus-agent.tielogic.xyz"
assert s.llm_model_tier_a == "claude-premium-y" assert s.llm_model_tier_s == "claude-opus-4-7"
assert s.llm_model_tier_b == "claude-opus-4-7" assert s.llm_model_tier_a == "claude-opus-4-7"
assert s.llm_model_tier_c == "deepseek/deepseek-chat" assert s.llm_model_tier_b == "claude-sonnet-4-6"
assert s.llm_model_tier_d == "mistralai/mistral-7b" assert s.llm_model_tier_c == "claude-sonnet-4-6"
assert s.openrouter_base_url == "https://example.com/api/v1" assert s.llm_model_tier_d == "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001"
def test_settings_llm_model_defaults(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None: def test_settings_opus_agent_base_url_override(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None:
monkeypatch.setenv("CERBERO_TESTNET_TOKEN", "tok-test") monkeypatch.setenv("CERBERO_TESTNET_TOKEN", "tok-test")
monkeypatch.setenv("OPENROUTER_API_KEY", "or-key") monkeypatch.setenv("OPUS_AGENT_API_KEY", "oa-key")
monkeypatch.delenv("LLM_MODEL_TIER_S", raising=False) monkeypatch.setenv("OPUS_AGENT_BASE_URL", "https://custom.example.com")
monkeypatch.delenv("LLM_MODEL_TIER_A", raising=False)
monkeypatch.delenv("LLM_MODEL_TIER_B", raising=False)
monkeypatch.delenv("LLM_MODEL_TIER_C", raising=False)
monkeypatch.delenv("LLM_MODEL_TIER_D", raising=False)
monkeypatch.delenv("OPENROUTER_BASE_URL", raising=False)
s = Settings(_env_file=None) # type: ignore[call-arg] s = Settings(_env_file=None) # type: ignore[call-arg]
assert s.llm_model_tier_s == "google/gemini-3-flash-preview" assert s.opus_agent_base_url == "https://custom.example.com"
assert s.llm_model_tier_a == "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash"
assert s.llm_model_tier_b == "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash"
assert s.llm_model_tier_c == "qwen/qwen-2.5-72b-instruct"
assert s.llm_model_tier_d == "openai/gpt-oss-20b"
assert s.openrouter_base_url == "https://openrouter.ai/api/v1"
@@ -420,3 +420,48 @@ def test_build_system_prompt_skips_anti_patterns_and_priorities_when_empty(mocke
system_msg = call_kwargs["system"] system_msg = call_kwargs["system"]
assert "ANTI-PATTERN" not in system_msg assert "ANTI-PATTERN" not in system_msg
assert "PRIORITA' DI OUTPUT" not in system_msg assert "PRIORITA' DI OUTPUT" not in system_msg
def test_build_system_prompt_includes_custom_indicators_spec(mocker): # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
"""custom_indicators_spec da PromptLibrary appare nel SYSTEM prompt con header."""
fake_llm = mocker.MagicMock()
fake_llm.complete.return_value = CompletionResult(
text=VALID_STRATEGY_JSON,
input_tokens=200,
output_tokens=80,
tier=ModelTier.C,
model="qwen",
)
lib = PromptLibrary(
styles={"physicist": "Pensa come un fisico."},
focus={},
custom_indicators_spec="CUSTOM_IND_X",
)
agent = HypothesisAgent(llm=fake_llm, prompt_library=lib)
agent.propose(make_genome(), make_summary())
call_kwargs = fake_llm.complete.call_args.kwargs
system_msg = call_kwargs["system"]
assert "INDICATORI CUSTOM" in system_msg
assert "CUSTOM_IND_X" in system_msg
def test_build_system_prompt_skips_custom_indicators_spec_when_empty(mocker): # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
"""custom_indicators_spec='' -> sezione assente nel SYSTEM prompt."""
fake_llm = mocker.MagicMock()
fake_llm.complete.return_value = CompletionResult(
text=VALID_STRATEGY_JSON,
input_tokens=200,
output_tokens=80,
tier=ModelTier.C,
model="qwen",
)
lib = PromptLibrary(
styles={"physicist": "Pensa come un fisico."},
focus={},
custom_indicators_spec="",
)
agent = HypothesisAgent(llm=fake_llm, prompt_library=lib)
agent.propose(make_genome(), make_summary())
call_kwargs = fake_llm.complete.call_args.kwargs
system_msg = call_kwargs["system"]
assert "INDICATORI CUSTOM" not in system_msg
+229 -191
View File
@@ -1,7 +1,14 @@
import httpx
import pytest import pytest
from multi_swarm_core.genome.hypothesis import HypothesisAgentGenome, ModelTier from multi_swarm_core.genome.hypothesis import HypothesisAgentGenome, ModelTier
from multi_swarm_core.llm.client import CompletionResult, LLMClient from multi_swarm_core.llm.client import (
CompletionResult,
EmptyCompletionError,
LLMClient,
OpusAgentError,
OpusAgentTransientError,
)
def make_genome(tier: ModelTier) -> HypothesisAgentGenome: def make_genome(tier: ModelTier) -> HypothesisAgentGenome:
@@ -16,217 +23,248 @@ def make_genome(tier: ModelTier) -> HypothesisAgentGenome:
) )
def test_completion_tier_c_uses_openrouter(mocker): TOPIC_RESPONSE = {
fake_openai = mocker.MagicMock() "success": True,
fake_response = mocker.MagicMock() "data": {"id": "topic-123", "name": "swarm-test", "system_prompt": "sys"},
fake_response.choices = [mocker.MagicMock(message=mocker.MagicMock(content="(strategy ...)"))] }
fake_response.usage = mocker.MagicMock(prompt_tokens=100, completion_tokens=200)
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.return_value = fake_response
mocker.patch("multi_swarm_core.llm.client.OpenAI", return_value=fake_openai) REQUEST_ACCEPTED = {
"success": True,
"data": {"id": "req-456", "session_id": None, "status": "pending"},
}
client = LLMClient(openrouter_api_key="or-x")
g = make_genome(ModelTier.C) def _completed_response(
out = client.complete(g, system="sys", user="usr") text: str = "(strategy ...)", session_id: str = "sess-789",
) -> dict:
return {
"success": True,
"data": {
"id": "req-456",
"status": "completed",
"result": text,
"session_id": session_id,
},
}
def _mock_transport(responses: list[httpx.Response]) -> httpx.MockTransport:
call_idx = {"i": 0}
def handler(request: httpx.Request) -> httpx.Response:
idx = call_idx["i"]
call_idx["i"] += 1
if idx < len(responses):
return responses[idx]
return responses[-1]
return httpx.MockTransport(handler)
def _make_client(transport: httpx.MockTransport) -> LLMClient:
client = LLMClient(opus_agent_api_key="test-key", poll_interval=0.01, poll_timeout=5.0)
client._client = httpx.Client(
base_url="https://opus-agent.tielogic.xyz",
headers={"X-Api-Key": "test-key", "Content-Type": "application/json"},
transport=transport,
)
return client
def test_complete_tier_c_uses_sonnet():
transport = _mock_transport([
httpx.Response(201, json=TOPIC_RESPONSE),
httpx.Response(202, json=REQUEST_ACCEPTED),
httpx.Response(200, json=_completed_response()),
])
client = _make_client(transport)
out = client.complete(make_genome(ModelTier.C), system="sys", user="usr")
assert isinstance(out, CompletionResult) assert isinstance(out, CompletionResult)
assert out.text == "(strategy ...)" assert out.text == "(strategy ...)"
assert out.input_tokens == 100 assert out.model == "claude-sonnet-4-6"
assert out.output_tokens == 200
assert out.tier == ModelTier.C assert out.tier == ModelTier.C
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.assert_called_once()
def test_completion_tier_b_uses_openrouter_with_anthropic_model(mocker): def test_complete_tier_s_uses_opus():
fake_openai = mocker.MagicMock() transport = _mock_transport([
fake_response = mocker.MagicMock() httpx.Response(201, json=TOPIC_RESPONSE),
fake_response.choices = [mocker.MagicMock(message=mocker.MagicMock(content="(strategy ...)"))] httpx.Response(202, json=REQUEST_ACCEPTED),
fake_response.usage = mocker.MagicMock(prompt_tokens=80, completion_tokens=150) httpx.Response(200, json=_completed_response("(strategy s)")),
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.return_value = fake_response ])
mocker.patch("multi_swarm_core.llm.client.OpenAI", return_value=fake_openai) client = _make_client(transport)
out = client.complete(make_genome(ModelTier.S), system="sys", user="usr")
client = LLMClient(openrouter_api_key="or-x") assert out.model == "claude-opus-4-7"
g = make_genome(ModelTier.B)
out = client.complete(g, system="sys", user="usr")
assert out.text == "(strategy ...)"
assert out.input_tokens == 80
assert out.output_tokens == 150
assert out.tier == ModelTier.B
call_kwargs = fake_openai.chat.completions.create.call_args.kwargs
assert call_kwargs["model"] == "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash"
assert out.model == "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash"
@pytest.mark.slow
def test_completion_retries_on_connection_error(mocker):
"""Retry esegue 3 tentativi su APIConnectionError, poi rilancia."""
import openai
fake_openai = mocker.MagicMock()
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.side_effect = openai.APIConnectionError(
request=mocker.MagicMock()
)
mocker.patch("multi_swarm_core.llm.client.OpenAI", return_value=fake_openai)
client = LLMClient(openrouter_api_key="or-x")
g = make_genome(ModelTier.C)
with pytest.raises(openai.APIConnectionError):
client.complete(g, system="sys", user="usr")
assert fake_openai.chat.completions.create.call_count == 5
def test_completion_uses_custom_model_tier_c(mocker):
fake_openai = mocker.MagicMock()
fake_response = mocker.MagicMock()
fake_response.choices = [
mocker.MagicMock(message=mocker.MagicMock(content="(strategy ...)"))
]
fake_response.usage = mocker.MagicMock(prompt_tokens=10, completion_tokens=20)
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.return_value = fake_response
mocker.patch("multi_swarm_core.llm.client.OpenAI", return_value=fake_openai)
client = LLMClient(
openrouter_api_key="or-x",
model_tier_c="deepseek/deepseek-chat",
)
g = make_genome(ModelTier.C)
out = client.complete(g, system="sys", user="usr")
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.assert_called_once()
call_kwargs = fake_openai.chat.completions.create.call_args.kwargs
assert call_kwargs["model"] == "deepseek/deepseek-chat"
assert out.model == "deepseek/deepseek-chat"
def test_completion_uses_custom_model_tier_b(mocker):
fake_openai = mocker.MagicMock()
fake_response = mocker.MagicMock()
fake_response.choices = [
mocker.MagicMock(message=mocker.MagicMock(content="(strategy ...)"))
]
fake_response.usage = mocker.MagicMock(prompt_tokens=10, completion_tokens=20)
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.return_value = fake_response
mocker.patch("multi_swarm_core.llm.client.OpenAI", return_value=fake_openai)
client = LLMClient(
openrouter_api_key="or-x",
model_tier_b="anthropic/claude-opus-4-7",
)
g = make_genome(ModelTier.B)
out = client.complete(g, system="sys", user="usr")
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.assert_called_once()
call_kwargs = fake_openai.chat.completions.create.call_args.kwargs
assert call_kwargs["model"] == "anthropic/claude-opus-4-7"
assert out.model == "anthropic/claude-opus-4-7"
def test_completion_tier_s_uses_openrouter_with_anthropic_model(mocker):
fake_openai = mocker.MagicMock()
fake_response = mocker.MagicMock()
fake_response.choices = [mocker.MagicMock(message=mocker.MagicMock(content="(strategy s)"))]
fake_response.usage = mocker.MagicMock(prompt_tokens=50, completion_tokens=100)
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.return_value = fake_response
mocker.patch("multi_swarm_core.llm.client.OpenAI", return_value=fake_openai)
client = LLMClient(openrouter_api_key="or-x")
g = make_genome(ModelTier.S)
out = client.complete(g, system="sys", user="usr")
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.assert_called_once()
call_kwargs = fake_openai.chat.completions.create.call_args.kwargs
assert call_kwargs["model"] == "google/gemini-3-flash-preview"
assert out.tier == ModelTier.S assert out.tier == ModelTier.S
assert out.model == "google/gemini-3-flash-preview" assert out.text == "(strategy s)"
def test_completion_tier_a_uses_openrouter_with_anthropic_model(mocker): def test_complete_tier_d_uses_haiku():
fake_openai = mocker.MagicMock() transport = _mock_transport([
fake_response = mocker.MagicMock() httpx.Response(201, json=TOPIC_RESPONSE),
fake_response.choices = [mocker.MagicMock(message=mocker.MagicMock(content="(strategy a)"))] httpx.Response(202, json=REQUEST_ACCEPTED),
fake_response.usage = mocker.MagicMock(prompt_tokens=40, completion_tokens=80) httpx.Response(200, json=_completed_response("(strategy d)")),
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.return_value = fake_response ])
mocker.patch("multi_swarm_core.llm.client.OpenAI", return_value=fake_openai) client = _make_client(transport)
out = client.complete(make_genome(ModelTier.D), system="sys", user="usr")
client = LLMClient(openrouter_api_key="or-x") assert out.model == "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001"
g = make_genome(ModelTier.A)
out = client.complete(g, system="sys", user="usr")
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.assert_called_once()
call_kwargs = fake_openai.chat.completions.create.call_args.kwargs
assert call_kwargs["model"] == "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash"
assert out.tier == ModelTier.A
assert out.model == "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash"
def test_completion_tier_d_uses_openrouter_with_llama(mocker):
fake_openai = mocker.MagicMock()
fake_response = mocker.MagicMock()
fake_response.choices = [
mocker.MagicMock(message=mocker.MagicMock(content="(strategy d)"))
]
fake_response.usage = mocker.MagicMock(prompt_tokens=30, completion_tokens=70)
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.return_value = fake_response
mocker.patch("multi_swarm_core.llm.client.OpenAI", return_value=fake_openai)
client = LLMClient(openrouter_api_key="or-x")
g = make_genome(ModelTier.D)
out = client.complete(g, system="sys", user="usr")
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.assert_called_once()
call_kwargs = fake_openai.chat.completions.create.call_args.kwargs
assert call_kwargs["model"] == "openai/gpt-oss-20b"
assert out.tier == ModelTier.D assert out.tier == ModelTier.D
assert out.model == "openai/gpt-oss-20b"
def test_completion_uses_custom_model_tier_s(mocker): def test_topic_cached_on_second_call():
fake_openai = mocker.MagicMock() transport = _mock_transport([
fake_response = mocker.MagicMock() httpx.Response(201, json=TOPIC_RESPONSE),
fake_response.choices = [ httpx.Response(202, json=REQUEST_ACCEPTED),
mocker.MagicMock(message=mocker.MagicMock(content="(strategy custom-s)")) httpx.Response(200, json=_completed_response()),
] httpx.Response(202, json=REQUEST_ACCEPTED),
fake_response.usage = mocker.MagicMock(prompt_tokens=10, completion_tokens=20) httpx.Response(200, json=_completed_response("second")),
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.return_value = fake_response ])
mocker.patch("multi_swarm_core.llm.client.OpenAI", return_value=fake_openai) client = _make_client(transport)
client.complete(make_genome(ModelTier.C), system="sys", user="usr1")
out2 = client.complete(make_genome(ModelTier.C), system="sys", user="usr2")
client = LLMClient( assert out2.text == "second"
openrouter_api_key="or-x",
model_tier_s="anthropic/claude-future-mega",
def test_topic_conflict_409_recovers():
transport = _mock_transport([
httpx.Response(409, json={"success": False, "error": {"code": "CONFLICT"}}),
httpx.Response(200, json={"success": True, "data": [
{"id": "topic-existing", "name": "swarm-wrong"},
]}),
])
client = _make_client(transport)
with pytest.raises(OpusAgentError, match="conflict but not found"):
client.complete(make_genome(ModelTier.C), system="sys", user="usr")
def test_empty_response_raises():
transport = _mock_transport([
httpx.Response(201, json=TOPIC_RESPONSE),
httpx.Response(202, json=REQUEST_ACCEPTED),
httpx.Response(200, json={
"success": True,
"data": {"id": "req-456", "status": "completed", "result": ""},
}),
])
client = _make_client(transport)
with pytest.raises(EmptyCompletionError):
client.complete(make_genome(ModelTier.C), system="sys", user="usr")
def test_request_failed_raises_opus_agent_error():
transport = _mock_transport([
httpx.Response(201, json=TOPIC_RESPONSE),
httpx.Response(202, json=REQUEST_ACCEPTED),
httpx.Response(200, json={
"success": True,
"data": {"id": "req-456", "status": "failed", "error": "model overloaded"},
}),
])
client = _make_client(transport)
with pytest.raises(OpusAgentError, match="failed"):
client.complete(make_genome(ModelTier.C), system="sys", user="usr")
def test_rate_limit_429_is_retryable():
transport = _mock_transport([
httpx.Response(201, json=TOPIC_RESPONSE),
httpx.Response(429, json={"success": False}),
httpx.Response(202, json=REQUEST_ACCEPTED),
httpx.Response(200, json=_completed_response("after retry")),
])
client = _make_client(transport)
out = client.complete(make_genome(ModelTier.C), system="sys", user="usr")
assert out.text == "after retry"
def test_polling_waits_for_completion():
transport = _mock_transport([
httpx.Response(201, json=TOPIC_RESPONSE),
httpx.Response(202, json=REQUEST_ACCEPTED),
httpx.Response(200, json={
"success": True,
"data": {"id": "req-456", "status": "processing"},
}),
httpx.Response(200, json={
"success": True,
"data": {"id": "req-456", "status": "processing"},
}),
httpx.Response(200, json=_completed_response("done")),
])
client = _make_client(transport)
out = client.complete(make_genome(ModelTier.C), system="sys", user="usr")
assert out.text == "done"
def test_tokens_are_zero():
transport = _mock_transport([
httpx.Response(201, json=TOPIC_RESPONSE),
httpx.Response(202, json=REQUEST_ACCEPTED),
httpx.Response(200, json=_completed_response()),
])
client = _make_client(transport)
out = client.complete(make_genome(ModelTier.C), system="sys", user="usr")
assert out.input_tokens == 0
assert out.output_tokens == 0
def test_session_id_returned_from_completion():
transport = _mock_transport([
httpx.Response(201, json=TOPIC_RESPONSE),
httpx.Response(202, json=REQUEST_ACCEPTED),
httpx.Response(200, json=_completed_response(session_id="sess-abc")),
])
client = _make_client(transport)
out = client.complete(make_genome(ModelTier.C), system="sys", user="usr", session_id="new")
assert out.session_id == "sess-abc"
def test_session_id_and_summarize_sent_in_request():
requests_seen: list[dict] = []
def handler(request: httpx.Request) -> httpx.Response:
if request.method == "POST" and "/requests" in str(request.url):
import json
requests_seen.append(json.loads(request.content))
return httpx.Response(202, json=REQUEST_ACCEPTED)
if request.method == "POST" and "/topics" in str(request.url):
return httpx.Response(201, json=TOPIC_RESPONSE)
return httpx.Response(200, json=_completed_response())
transport = httpx.MockTransport(handler)
client = _make_client(transport)
client.complete(
make_genome(ModelTier.C), system="sys", user="usr",
session_id="sess-existing", summarize=True,
) )
g = make_genome(ModelTier.S)
out = client.complete(g, system="sys", user="usr")
call_kwargs = fake_openai.chat.completions.create.call_args.kwargs assert len(requests_seen) == 1
assert call_kwargs["model"] == "anthropic/claude-future-mega" assert requests_seen[0]["session_id"] == "sess-existing"
assert out.model == "anthropic/claude-future-mega" assert requests_seen[0]["summarize"] is True
@pytest.mark.slow def test_close_session():
def test_completion_succeeds_after_one_retry(mocker): deleted: list[str] = []
"""Dopo 1 fallimento transient, il retry riesce al 2 tentativo."""
import openai
fake_response = mocker.MagicMock() def handler(request: httpx.Request) -> httpx.Response:
fake_response.choices = [ if request.method == "DELETE":
mocker.MagicMock(message=mocker.MagicMock(content="(strategy ...)")) deleted.append(str(request.url))
] return httpx.Response(200, json={"success": True})
fake_response.usage = mocker.MagicMock(prompt_tokens=100, completion_tokens=200) return httpx.Response(200, json={"success": True})
fake_openai = mocker.MagicMock() transport = httpx.MockTransport(handler)
fake_openai.chat.completions.create.side_effect = [ client = _make_client(transport)
openai.APITimeoutError(request=mocker.MagicMock()), client.close_session("sess-to-close")
fake_response,
]
mocker.patch("multi_swarm_core.llm.client.OpenAI", return_value=fake_openai)
client = LLMClient(openrouter_api_key="or-x") assert len(deleted) == 1
g = make_genome(ModelTier.C) assert "sess-to-close" in deleted[0]
out = client.complete(g, system="sys", user="usr")
assert isinstance(out, CompletionResult)
assert out.text == "(strategy ...)"
assert fake_openai.chat.completions.create.call_count == 2
@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
"""Test che `_parallel_propose` preservi l'ordine dei risultati e funzioni
sia in modalita' sequenziale (workers=1) che concorrente (workers>1).
Non vogliamo testare il vero `HypothesisAgent.propose()` (che fa chiamate
LLM); usiamo un dummy con una latenza simulata per validare ordine e parallelismo.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import time
from dataclasses import dataclass
from typing import Any
from multi_swarm_core.orchestrator.run import _parallel_propose
@dataclass
class _FakeGenome:
id: str
@dataclass
class _FakeProposal:
genome_id: str
class _FakeAgent:
"""Agent dummy: propose() dorme 50ms e ritorna un proposal con l'id del genome."""
def __init__(self, delay_s: float = 0.05) -> None:
self._delay = delay_s
self.call_count = 0
def propose(self, genome: _FakeGenome, market: Any) -> _FakeProposal:
time.sleep(self._delay)
self.call_count += 1
return _FakeProposal(genome_id=genome.id)
def test_parallel_propose_preserves_order_serial() -> None:
agent = _FakeAgent(delay_s=0.01)
genomes = [_FakeGenome(id=f"g{i}") for i in range(5)]
results = _parallel_propose(agent, genomes, market=None, n_workers=1)
assert [r.genome_id for r in results] == ["g0", "g1", "g2", "g3", "g4"]
assert agent.call_count == 5
def test_parallel_propose_preserves_order_concurrent() -> None:
agent = _FakeAgent(delay_s=0.05)
genomes = [_FakeGenome(id=f"g{i}") for i in range(8)]
results = _parallel_propose(agent, genomes, market=None, n_workers=4)
assert [r.genome_id for r in results] == [f"g{i}" for i in range(8)]
assert agent.call_count == 8
def test_parallel_propose_actually_parallelizes() -> None:
"""Wall time con 4 worker su 4 task da 100ms deve essere ~100ms, non ~400ms."""
agent = _FakeAgent(delay_s=0.1)
genomes = [_FakeGenome(id=f"g{i}") for i in range(4)]
t0 = time.time()
_parallel_propose(agent, genomes, market=None, n_workers=4)
elapsed = time.time() - t0
# serial sarebbe 0.4s; con 4 worker scendiamo a ~0.1s (max 0.2 per overhead).
assert elapsed < 0.2, f"expected <200ms with 4 workers, got {elapsed * 1000:.0f}ms"
def test_parallel_propose_handles_single_genome() -> None:
agent = _FakeAgent()
results = _parallel_propose(agent, [_FakeGenome(id="solo")], market=None, n_workers=8)
assert len(results) == 1
assert results[0].genome_id == "solo"
def test_parallel_propose_empty_input() -> None:
agent = _FakeAgent()
results = _parallel_propose(agent, [], market=None, n_workers=4)
assert results == []
assert agent.call_count == 0
@@ -88,3 +88,81 @@ def test_from_json_loads_anti_patterns_and_output_priorities(tmp_path: Path) ->
lib = PromptLibrary.from_json(_write_json(data, tmp_path)) lib = PromptLibrary.from_json(_write_json(data, tmp_path))
assert lib.anti_patterns == "Evita overfitting." assert lib.anti_patterns == "Evita overfitting."
assert lib.output_priorities == "Robustezza > ottimalita." assert lib.output_priorities == "Robustezza > ottimalita."
def test_from_json_loads_custom_indicators_spec(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
"""from_json() legge custom_indicators_spec (v3.2): firme di indicatori strategy-specific."""
data = {
"styles": {"physicist": {"directive": "Cerca leggi conservative."}},
"custom_indicators_spec": (
"candle_pattern: params=[length, sym0, sym1, ...], length in [3,12], "
"sym in {0=U,1=D,2=doji}\n"
"pythagorean_ratio: params=[lookback], lookback in [12,200]"
),
}
lib = PromptLibrary.from_json(_write_json(data, tmp_path))
assert "candle_pattern" in lib.custom_indicators_spec
assert "lookback in [12,200]" in lib.custom_indicators_spec
def test_from_json_defaults_custom_indicators_spec_when_absent(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
"""custom_indicators_spec assente -> default stringa vuota."""
data = {"styles": {"physicist": {"directive": "Cerca leggi conservative."}}}
lib = PromptLibrary.from_json(_write_json(data, tmp_path))
assert lib.custom_indicators_spec == ""
def test_strategy_crypto_directives_ascii_safe() -> None:
"""REGRESSION GUARD: nessuna directive contiene caratteri > U+007F.
v3.1 aveva regredito introducendo il carattere circa-uguale (U+2248) in 3 stili.
v3.2 ripristina ASCII-strict come invariante permanente.
"""
import importlib.resources
path = importlib.resources.files("strategy_crypto") / "prompts.json"
lib = PromptLibrary.from_json(str(path))
for style, directive in lib.styles.items():
non_ascii = [c for c in directive if ord(c) > 127]
assert not non_ascii, (
f"directive di {style!r} contiene caratteri non-ASCII: "
f"{non_ascii} (codepoints: {[hex(ord(c)) for c in non_ascii]})"
)
def test_strategy_crypto_directives_have_archetype_marker() -> None:
"""REGRESSION GUARD: ogni directive chiude con 'Archetipo dominante: ...'.
L'archetipo e' l'ancora semantica identitaria della lente; deve essere
presente per resistere alle riscritture di mutate_prompt_llm.
"""
import importlib.resources
path = importlib.resources.files("strategy_crypto") / "prompts.json"
lib = PromptLibrary.from_json(str(path))
for style, directive in lib.styles.items():
assert "Archetipo dominante:" in directive, (
f"directive di {style!r} manca del marker 'Archetipo dominante:'"
)
def test_strategy_crypto_directives_have_lookback_hint() -> None:
"""REGRESSION GUARD: ogni directive contiene un hint 'Lookback consigliato: X-Y barre'.
Il range numerico orienta il parametro evoluto lookback_window del genoma;
differenziato per stile per favorire diversita di scala temporale nella
popolazione iniziale.
"""
import re
import importlib.resources
path = importlib.resources.files("strategy_crypto") / "prompts.json"
lib = PromptLibrary.from_json(str(path))
pattern = re.compile(r"[Ll]ookback consigliato:\s*\d+\s*-\s*\d+", re.IGNORECASE)
for style, directive in lib.styles.items():
assert pattern.search(directive), (
f"directive di {style!r} manca dell'hint 'Lookback consigliato: X-Y'"
)
@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ from __future__ import annotations
import json import json
import sqlite3 import sqlite3
import time
from pathlib import Path from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any from typing import Any
@@ -14,9 +15,18 @@ import pandas as pd # type: ignore[import-untyped]
def _paper_conn(db_path: str | Path) -> sqlite3.Connection: def _paper_conn(db_path: str | Path) -> sqlite3.Connection:
conn = sqlite3.connect(str(db_path)) # Cold-start race: GUI può avviarsi prima che il paper writer crei il file.
db_path_str = str(db_path)
deadline = time.monotonic() + 5.0
while True:
try:
conn = sqlite3.connect(db_path_str, timeout=5.0)
conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row
return conn return conn
except sqlite3.OperationalError:
if time.monotonic() >= deadline:
raise
time.sleep(1.0)
def paper_runs_df(db_path: str | Path) -> pd.DataFrame: def paper_runs_df(db_path: str | Path) -> pd.DataFrame:
@@ -1,54 +1,49 @@
{ {
"_comment": "Stili cognitivi e direttive del system_prompt per il GA di strategy_crypto. Modifica liberamente: cambia 'directive' di uno stile esistente o aggiungi nuove voci a 'styles'. Il nome dello stile (key) viene usato come 'cognitive_style' del genoma; la 'directive' diventa il system_prompt iniziale.", "_comment": "Stili cognitivi e direttive del system_prompt per il GA di strategy_crypto. Modifica liberamente: cambia 'directive' di uno stile esistente o aggiungi nuove voci a 'styles'. Il nome dello stile (key) viene usato come 'cognitive_style' del genoma; la 'directive' diventa il system_prompt iniziale.",
"_schema": "3.1", "_schema": "3.2",
"_changelog": "v3.1 - Refactor contenuto post-diagnosi: pattern_guidance astratto (nessun riferimento a indicatori specifici, lascia il GA scoprire il mapping); domain_warnings riformulato in 'NON assumere' (rimossa inferenza su funding rate); agent_role con swarm awareness; NEW anti_patterns + output_priorities; directive ridotte sotto 900 char; focus_metrics standardizzati a 4 per stile, rimosse ridondanze (autocorr_baseline da historian, kurt/skew da psychologist sostituiti con autocorr_recent + spectral_entropy). v3.0 - Refactor compositore: prompts.json controlla agent_role/pattern_guidance/instruction/domain_warnings top-level; core fornisce solo lo SCAFFOLD universale. v2.2 - Aggiunte 5 metriche geometrico-frattali con focus_metrics per stile. v2.1 - directive estese con interpretazione dei 4 input statistici. v2.0 - Riprogettato per blind-generator GA, 7 lenti.", "_changelog": "v3.2 - Patch consolidamento: ripristinati 3 invarianti regrediti in v3.1 (ASCII-safe, archetipo dominante, hint lookback); voce attiva rinforzata; anti_patterns +2 (chattering, isteresi); output_priorities +1 (#1 coerenza con lente cognitiva); domain_warnings +1 frase (soglia seasonality 0.05); NEW _design_invariants metadata. Lunghezza directive 800-950 char (era 545-614 in v3.1, troppo snellite). v3.1 - Refactor contenuto post-diagnosi. v3.0 - Refactor compositore. v2.2 - Metriche geometrico-frattali. v2.1 - directive estese. v2.0 - Riprogettato per blind-generator GA.",
"_focus_metrics_design": "Le focus_metrics sono ENFASI per la lente, non filtri. Standardizzate a 4 per stile (cognitive budget). Evitano ridondanze con la sezione 'Regime recente' del USER_TEMPLATE (es. autocorr_baseline non va nel focus, e' gia' visibile). Scelte per essere semantically aligned con la metafora dello stile.", "_focus_metrics_design": "Le focus_metrics sono ENFASI per la lente, non filtri. Standardizzate a 4 per stile (cognitive budget). Evitano ridondanze con la sezione 'Regime recente' del USER_TEMPLATE.",
"_design_invariants": "Caratteristiche che future versioni DEVONO preservare: (1) ASCII-safe: nessun carattere > U+007F nelle directive (es. il carattere circa-uguale U+2248 era una regressione di v3.1, ripristinato in v3.2); (2) Archetipo dominante: ogni directive chiude con 'Archetipo dominante: <metafora>.' come ancora identitaria resistente a mutate_prompt_llm; (3) Lookback consigliato: ogni directive include un range numerico diversificato per stile per orientare il parametro evoluto lookback_window del genoma; (4) Metafora ancorante: la lente cognitiva e' descritta in forma 'Il mercato e ...' come prima frase; (5) Lunghezza directive: tra 800 e 950 char (sweet spot per robustezza a mutate_prompt_llm).",
"agent_role": "Sei un agente generatore di ipotesi di trading quantitativo per un sistema swarm coevolutivo specializzato in mercati crypto. Sei parte di una popolazione che esplora collettivamente lo spazio delle strategie: la diversita delle ipotesi e' un asset critico per il sistema. Preferisci esplorare territori meno ovvi rispetto a quelli che la tua lente cognitiva renderebbe predicibili.", "agent_role": "Sei un agente generatore di ipotesi di trading quantitativo per un sistema swarm coevolutivo specializzato in mercati crypto. Sei parte di una popolazione che esplora collettivamente lo spazio delle strategie: la diversita delle ipotesi e un asset critico per il sistema. Preferisci esplorare territori meno ovvi rispetto a quelli che la tua lente cognitiva renderebbe predicibili.",
"pattern_guidance": "Forme di curva da cercare:\n - Trend strutturale (direzione persistente con basso ritracciamento)\n - Compressione di volatilita (pre-breakout, energia accumulata)\n - Espansione di volatilita (regime di shock: momentum o cattura difensiva)\n - Mean reversion strutturale (deviazione eccessiva dalla media -> ritorno atteso)\n - Esaurimento direzionale (estremi di oscillatori, divergenza prezzo-momento)\n\nRipetibilita da sfruttare:\n - Eventi crossover ricorrenti su serie correlate\n - Cicli intra-day se la seasonality oraria e' significativa\n - Cicli settimanali se la seasonality settimanale e' significativa\n - Pattern doppio (top/bottom) con conferma su livello simile\n - Range breakout dopo periodo di compressione\n\nCerca pattern che si REPLICANO nei dati storici, non singoli eventi rari.", "pattern_guidance": "Forme di curva da cercare:\n - Trend strutturale (direzione persistente con basso ritracciamento)\n - Compressione di volatilita (pre-breakout, energia accumulata)\n - Espansione di volatilita (regime di shock: momentum o cattura difensiva)\n - Mean reversion strutturale (deviazione eccessiva dalla media verso ritorno atteso)\n - Esaurimento direzionale (estremi di oscillatori, divergenza prezzo-momento)\n\nRipetibilita da sfruttare:\n - Eventi crossover ricorrenti su serie correlate\n - Cicli intra-day se la seasonality oraria e significativa\n - Cicli settimanali se la seasonality settimanale e significativa\n - Pattern doppio (top/bottom) con conferma su livello simile\n - Range breakout dopo periodo di compressione\n\nCerca pattern che si REPLICANO nei dati storici, non singoli eventi rari.",
"instruction": "Genera una strategia che cerchi anomalie sfruttabili in questo regime crypto.", "instruction": "Genera una strategia che cerchi anomalie sfruttabili in questo regime crypto.",
"domain_warnings": "Crypto trada 24/7 senza CME gap: non assumere chiusure settimanali. Tail pesanti e vol clustering esteso caratterizzano BTC/ETH: evita ipotesi gaussiane. NON tentare di inferire funding rate, news o eventi macro: non sono accessibili. Le statistiche fornite sono l'unica informazione su cui basarsi.", "domain_warnings": "Crypto trada 24/7 senza CME gap: non assumere chiusure settimanali. Tail pesanti e vol clustering esteso caratterizzano BTC/ETH: evita ipotesi gaussiane. NON tentare di inferire funding rate, news o eventi macro: non sono accessibili. Le statistiche fornite sono l'unica informazione su cui basarsi. Una seasonality_hour o seasonality_dow > 0 NON significa che la stagionalita sia significativa: usa la soglia 0.05 come gate minimo (sotto e' rumore statistico).",
"anti_patterns": "Evita: (1) basare strategia su singolo evento estremo (kurt outlier senza ricorrenza nelle 500 barre recenti); (2) usare piu di 4 condizioni in AND (sovra-fitting combinatorio, brittle a piccoli shift di regime); (3) confondere correlazione storica con causalita (autocorr o pattern temporali sono BIAS, non leggi); (4) assumere stazionarieta perfetta del regime (i delta 'recente vs baseline' indicano lo scostamento); (5) usare feature temporali (hour, dow, is_weekend) quando la seasonality corrispondente e' < 0.05 (rumore, no signal).", "anti_patterns": "Evita: (1) basare strategia su singolo evento estremo (kurt outlier senza ricorrenza nelle 500 barre recenti); (2) usare piu di 4 condizioni in AND (sovra-fitting combinatorio, brittle a piccoli shift di regime); (3) confondere correlazione storica con causalita (autocorr o pattern temporali sono BIAS, non leggi); (4) assumere stazionarieta perfetta del regime (i delta 'recente vs baseline' indicano lo scostamento); (5) usare feature temporali (hour, dow, is_weekend) quando la seasonality corrispondente e' < 0.05 (rumore, no signal); (6) crossover tra indicatori dello stesso tipo con lookback vicini (chattering: oscilla tra entry/exit senza segnale netto); (7) soglie hard senza isteresi tra entry ed exit (genera chattering al confine; usa soglie diverse per entry vs exit, almeno 10-20% di gap).",
"output_priorities": "Quando emerge trade-off: (1) robustezza cross-regime > ottimalita su singolo regime; (2) semplicita interpretabile (2-3 condizioni con razionale chiaro) > complessita raffinata (5+ condizioni accordate); (3) selettivita (poche entry forti, alto SNR) > attivita (molte entry deboli); (4) condizioni con razionale meccanico > pattern statistici fortuiti.", "output_priorities": "Quando emerge trade-off: (1) coerenza con la lente cognitiva: la strategia deve essere riconoscibile come emanata dal tuo stile (es. engineer = pochi gate robusti, psychologist = contrarian su estremi). E' il fondamento del design swarm: ipotesi omogeneizzate riducono la diversita della popolazione; (2) robustezza cross-regime > ottimalita su singolo regime; (3) semplicita interpretabile (2-3 condizioni con razionale chiaro) > complessita raffinata (5+ condizioni accordate); (4) selettivita (poche entry forti, alto SNR) > attivita (molte entry deboli); (5) condizioni con razionale meccanico > pattern statistici fortuiti.",
"styles": { "styles": {
"physicist": { "physicist": {
"directive": "Il mercato e un sistema fisico con energia (std), simmetrie (skew) e memoria (autocorr). Leggi kurt come densita di eventi estremi (fat tails = fuori equilibrio), skew come forzante asimmetrica. AR(1) positivo significativamente sopra baseline = memoria coerente, momentum legittimo; Hurst > 0.55 conferma persistenza di scala; vol percentile alto + kurt bassa = energia immagazzinata non ancora rilasciata; efficiency_ratio alto = movimento efficiente; spectral_entropy bassa + dominant_cycle definito = modi armonici sfruttabili. Pattern coerenti su piu scale temporali sono robusti, pattern singoli sono rumore.", "directive": "Il mercato e un sistema fisico con energia (std), simmetrie (skew) e memoria (autocorr). Leggi kurt come densita di eventi estremi (fat tails = fuori equilibrio), skew come forzante asimmetrica. AR(1) positivo molto sopra baseline = memoria coerente, costruisci ipotesi di momentum legittimo; Hurst > 0.55 conferma persistenza di scala su orizzonti multipli; vol_pct alto con kurt bassa = energia immagazzinata non ancora rilasciata, cattura il rilascio; efficiency_ratio elevato = movimento efficiente, sfrutta direzionalita; spectral_entropy bassa con dominant_cycle definito = modi armonici sfruttabili, combina con conferma sulla fase. Preferisci pattern coerenti su piu lookback rispetto a singoli eventi rumorosi. Diagnostica regimi simmetrici e rotture di simmetria. Lookback consigliato: 150-300 barre. Archetipo dominante: sistema fisico in equilibrio (o pre-rottura di simmetria).",
"focus_metrics": ["hurst", "dominant_cycle", "efficiency_ratio", "spectral_entropy"] "focus_metrics": ["hurst", "dominant_cycle", "efficiency_ratio", "spectral_entropy"]
}, },
"biologist": { "biologist": {
"directive": "Il mercato e un ecosistema dove strategie competono per alpha finito. Skew negativo = predazione asimmetrica (vol-selling crowded che subisce shock), positivo = predatori che cacciano breakout. Kurt alta = eventi di estinzione/fioritura. AR(1) positivo persistente = una specie sta colonizzando la nicchia (overcrowding imminente, fade); Hurst > 0.55 + vol percentile basso = nicchia stabile (occupa); tail asimmetrico (left << right) = predazione asimmetrica strutturale; structural_uptrend persistente = specie dominante stabile. Cattura la coda opposta al consensus.", "directive": "Il mercato e un ecosistema dove strategie competono per alpha finito. Skew negativo segnala predazione asimmetrica (vol-selling crowded subisce shock), positivo predatori che cacciano breakout. Kurt alta = eventi di estinzione o fioritura. AR(1) positivo persistente = una specie sta colonizzando la nicchia (overcrowding imminente, preferisci fade); Hurst > 0.55 con vol_pct basso = nicchia stabile (occupa con strategie direzionali); tail asimmetrico (left molto piu pesante di right) = predazione asimmetrica strutturale, costruisci contrarian sulla coda; structural_uptrend persistente = specie dominante stabile. Combina seasonality con uno o due gate di regime per evitare di sovrapporti a fasi gia mature. Cattura la coda opposta al consensus. Lookback consigliato: 80-200 barre. Archetipo dominante: ecosistema con dinamiche predator-prey e nicchie evolutive.",
"focus_metrics": ["tail_left", "tail_right", "structural_uptrend", "seasonality_hour"] "focus_metrics": ["tail_left", "tail_right", "structural_uptrend", "seasonality_hour"]
}, },
"historian": { "historian": {
"directive": "Il mercato attraversa fasi cicliche che si ripetono in forma simile. Mean = drift strutturale, std = ampiezza ciclo. Kurt alta + vol regime medium/high = fase tardiva (pre-transizione); kurt bassa + skew ≈0 = accumulazione/stabilita. AR(1) recente >> baseline storica = regime accelera rispetto al normale; Hurst > 0.55 + vol percentile alto = fase markup matura, mean reversion attesa; structural_uptrend sostenuto = fase di accumulo/markup; compression < 1 = consolidamento pre-fase nuova. Identifica analogie tra il regime corrente e fasi tipiche.", "directive": "Il mercato attraversa fasi cicliche che si ripetono in forma simile. Mean = drift strutturale, std = ampiezza ciclo, kurt alta + vol regime medium/high = fase tardiva (pre-transizione); kurt bassa + skew vicino a zero = fase di accumulazione o stabilita. AR(1) recente molto sopra baseline storica = regime accelera rispetto al normale, diagnostica se markup o distribuzione; Hurst > 0.55 con vol_pct alto = fase markup matura, costruisci ipotesi di mean reversion strutturale attesa; structural_uptrend sostenuto = fase di accumulo o markup attiva, sfrutta la direzionalita; compression < 1 = consolidamento pre-fase nuova, preferisci breakout direzionali a conferma di rottura. Identifica analogie tra il regime corrente e fasi tipiche (accumulazione, markup, distribuzione, markdown). Lookback consigliato: 200-500 barre. Archetipo dominante: ciclo storico ricorrente in fasi tipiche.",
"focus_metrics": ["autocorr_recent", "structural_uptrend", "compression", "hurst"] "focus_metrics": ["autocorr_recent", "structural_uptrend", "compression", "hurst"]
}, },
"meteorologist": { "meteorologist": {
"directive": "La volatilita ha climi persistenti e fronti di transizione. Vol_regime + std + kurt definiscono microclima: std bassa + kurt bassa = calma stabile (vendi vol), std alta + kurt alta = tempesta (compra convexity), std bassa + kurt alta = calma ingannevole (riduci esposizione). AR(1) recente > baseline = fronte persistente in arrivo; Hurst > 0.55 = sistema su scala lunga, Hurst < 0.45 = turbolenza locale; vol percentile estremo = posizione nel ciclo seasonal; compression < 1 = compressione vol (pre-rilascio); tail pesanti = clima instabile. Pattern multi-regime sono robusti.", "directive": "La volatilita ha climi persistenti e fronti di transizione. Vol_regime + std + kurt definiscono il microclima: std bassa + kurt bassa = calma stabile (preferisci vendere vol con gate sicuri); std alta + kurt alta = tempesta (compra convexity o resta flat); std bassa + kurt alta = calma ingannevole pre-fronte (riduci esposizione). AR(1) recente sopra baseline = fronte persistente in arrivo, cattura la direzione del fronte; Hurst > 0.55 = sistema su scala lunga (ciclone), Hurst < 0.45 = turbolenza locale (no trend persistente, preferisci range-trading); vol_pct estremo = posizione nel ciclo seasonal, modula la size; compression < 1 = compressione vol pre-rilascio, posizionati per il breakout. Costruisci strategie con gate espliciti su vol che attivano logiche diverse. Lookback consigliato: 50-150 barre. Archetipo dominante: clima atmosferico con fronti e regimi persistenti.",
"focus_metrics": ["vol_pct", "compression", "tail_right", "dominant_cycle"] "focus_metrics": ["vol_pct", "compression", "tail_right", "dominant_cycle"]
}, },
"engineer": { "engineer": {
"directive": "Tratta ogni segnale come un sistema di controllo: SNR favorevole, causalita, robustezza. Std e il rumore di fondo. Kurt alta riduce affidabilita dei segnali medi. AR(1) > 0.05 con std contenuta = SNR favorevole; AR(1) ≈0 = random walk, non costruirci; Hurst < 0.45 = filtro mean-reversion causale efficace; efficiency_ratio < 0.2 = no signal, non costruire; spectral_entropy > 0.8 = white noise, regime non modellabile; tail_index < 2.5 = saturazione, riduci leverage; seasonality < 0.05 = feature temporali sono rumore. Robustezza > ottimalita.", "directive": "Tratta ogni segnale come un sistema di controllo: serve SNR favorevole, causalita, robustezza. Std e il rumore di fondo. Kurt alta riduce affidabilita dei segnali medi (gli estremi dominano le statistiche). AR(1) > 0.05 con std contenuta = SNR favorevole, costruisci ipotesi di momentum filtrato; AR(1) vicino a zero = random walk, evita di costruire signal su questo; Hurst < 0.45 = filtro mean-reversion causale efficace, sfrutta con isteresi; efficiency_ratio < 0.2 = no signal, non costruire; spectral_entropy > 0.8 = white noise, regime non modellabile; tail_index < 2.5 = saturazione dei sensori, riduci leverage; seasonality < 0.05 = feature temporali sono rumore, NON usarle. Preferisci pattern semplici e tarabili: poche condizioni in AND, soglie con margine, isteresi entry/exit. Lookback consigliato: 60-120 barre. Archetipo dominante: sistema di controllo ingegneristico con SNR e robustezza.",
"focus_metrics": ["efficiency_ratio", "spectral_entropy", "tail_left", "autocorr_recent"] "focus_metrics": ["efficiency_ratio", "spectral_entropy", "tail_left", "autocorr_recent"]
}, },
"military_strategist": { "military_strategist": {
"directive": "Distingui campagna offensiva da campagna difensiva e adatta dottrina. Vol regime medium/low + skew positivo + kurt moderata = terreno offensivo (entry direzionali). Vol regime high + kurt elevata = terreno ostile (difesa: posizioni limitate). AR(1) > 0 = vento alle spalle, carica con momentum; structural_uptrend > 0.7 = terreno occupato, hold; compression < 0.5 = preparazione attacco, posizionati; vol percentile alta = artiglieria nemica, ritirata; seasonality forte = via predicibile. Concentrazione: poche condizioni forti. Sorpresa: contrarian su consensus estremo.", "directive": "Distingui campagna offensiva da campagna difensiva e adatta dottrina. Vol regime medium/low + skew positivo + kurt moderata = terreno favorevole all'attacco (costruisci entry direzionali su breakout o momentum). Vol regime high + kurt elevata = terreno ostile (difesa: posizioni limitate, exit rapide, gate restrittivi). AR(1) > 0 = vento alle spalle, carica con momentum; AR(1) negativo = imboscata possibile, preferisci contrarian; Hurst > 0.55 = posizione difendibile, hold trade; structural_uptrend > 0.7 = terreno occupato dall'avversario (decidi se attaccare o ritirarti); compression < 0.5 = preparazione attacco silenziosa, posizionati per breakout; vol_pct alta = artiglieria nemica attiva, ritirata. Concentrazione: poche condizioni forti. Sorpresa: contrarian su consensus estremo. Lookback consigliato: 100-200 barre. Archetipo dominante: stratega militare che bilancia offesa e difesa.",
"focus_metrics": ["structural_uptrend", "compression", "vol_pct", "tail_left"] "focus_metrics": ["structural_uptrend", "compression", "vol_pct", "tail_left"]
}, },
"psychologist": { "psychologist": {
"directive": "Il mercato e folla con emozioni misurabili. Skew e kurt sono il termometro emotivo: skew neg + kurt alta = paura ricorrente (capitulation, fade gli estremi ribasso); skew pos + kurt alta = euforia (FOMO, fade rialzo); skew ≈0 + kurt bassa = apatia. AR(1) recente >> baseline = euforia coordinata in corso, posizionati contro l'ultimo arrivato; Hurst > 0.55 = trance collettiva (dura piu del razionale); tail_left pesante (Hill < 2.5) = paura sistemica; spectral_entropy alta = caos comportamentale; vol percentile estremo = momentum emozionale. Contrarian sugli estremi.", "directive": "Il mercato e folla con emozioni misurabili. Skew e kurt sono il termometro emotivo: skew neg + kurt alta = paura ricorrente (capitulation spikes, cattura il rimbalzo); skew pos + kurt alta = euforia (FOMO spikes, preferisci fade gli estremi al rialzo); skew vicino a zero + kurt bassa = apatia o range (gioca i bordi del range). AR(1) recente molto sopra baseline = euforia coordinata in corso, posizionati contro l'ultimo arrivato; Hurst > 0.55 = trance collettiva (trend trance, dura piu del razionale); tail_left pesante (Hill < 2.5) = paura sistemica strutturale, contrarian sulla capitulation; spectral_entropy alta = caos comportamentale, riduci dimensionalita del signal; vol_pct estremo = momentum emozionale puro, fade gli estremi. Sfrutta crossover di oscillatori in regimi razionali (kurt vicina a 3). Lookback consigliato: 50-120 barre. Archetipo dominante: psicologo del comportamento collettivo.",
"focus_metrics": ["tail_left", "tail_right", "autocorr_recent", "spectral_entropy"] "focus_metrics": ["tail_left", "tail_right", "autocorr_recent", "spectral_entropy"]
} }
} }
@@ -0,0 +1,140 @@
{
"rules": [
{
"condition": {
"op": "and",
"args": [
{
"op": "gt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "realized_vol",
"params": [150]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 0.01
}
]
},
{
"op": "lt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "atr_pct",
"params": [150]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 0.02
}
]
},
{
"op": "gt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "sma_pct",
"params": [150]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 0.05
}
]
}
]
},
"action": "entry-long"
},
{
"condition": {
"op": "and",
"args": [
{
"op": "lt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "realized_vol",
"params": [150]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 0.005
}
]
},
{
"op": "gt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "atr_pct",
"params": [150]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 0.03
}
]
},
{
"op": "lt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "sma_pct",
"params": [150]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": -0.05
}
]
}
]
},
"action": "entry-short"
},
{
"condition": {
"op": "or",
"args": [
{
"op": "eq",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "sma_pct",
"params": [150]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 0.0
}
]
},
{
"op": "lt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "realized_vol",
"params": [150]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 0.001
}
]
}
]
},
"action": "exit"
}
]
}
@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
{
"rules": [
{
"condition": {
"op": "and",
"args": [
{
"op": "gt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "realized_vol",
"params": [
150
]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 0.007
}
]
},
{
"op": "lt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "atr_pct",
"params": [
150
]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 0.0042
}
]
}
]
},
"action": "entry-long"
},
{
"condition": {
"op": "or",
"args": [
{
"op": "crossunder",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "rsi",
"params": [
14
]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 70.0
}
]
},
{
"op": "gt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "atr_pct",
"params": [
150
]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 0.007
}
]
}
]
},
"action": "exit"
}
]
}
@@ -0,0 +1,120 @@
{
"rules": [
{
"condition": {
"op": "and",
"args": [
{
"op": "lt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "rsi",
"params": [
14
]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 30.0
}
]
},
{
"op": "gt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "atr_pct",
"params": [
14
]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 0.01
}
]
},
{
"op": "lt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "macd_pct",
"params": [
12,
26,
9
]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": -0.005
}
]
}
]
},
"action": "entry-long"
},
{
"condition": {
"op": "or",
"args": [
{
"op": "gt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "rsi",
"params": [
14
]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 70.0
}
]
},
{
"op": "lt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "atr_pct",
"params": [
14
]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 0.005
}
]
},
{
"op": "gt",
"args": [
{
"kind": "indicator",
"name": "macd_pct",
"params": [
12,
26,
9
]
},
{
"kind": "literal",
"value": 0.005
}
]
}
]
},
"action": "exit"
}
]
}
+4 -2
View File
@@ -34,8 +34,10 @@ def test_frontend_imports() -> None:
def test_strategies_json_loadable() -> None: def test_strategies_json_loadable() -> None:
files = importlib.resources.files("strategy_crypto") / "strategies" files = importlib.resources.files("strategy_crypto") / "strategies"
found = sorted(p.name for p in files.iterdir() if p.name.endswith(".json")) found = sorted(p.name for p in files.iterdir() if p.name.endswith(".json"))
assert "btc_fb63e851.json" in found # Convenzione: almeno un winner BTC e uno ETH shippati col package.
assert "eth_facd6af85d5d.json" in found # Non hard-codare hash specifici: cambiano ad ogni swap di paper winner.
assert any(n.startswith("btc_") for n in found), f"no btc_*.json in {found}"
assert any(n.startswith("eth_") for n in found), f"no eth_*.json in {found}"
for fname in found: for fname in found:
data = json.loads((files / fname).read_text()) data = json.loads((files / fname).read_text())
assert "rules" in data, f"{fname} missing 'rules' key" assert "rules" in data, f"{fname} missing 'rules' key"
@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
"""Regression guard: end-of-window snap deve seguire il timeframe dell'asset.
Bug originale (scripts/run_paper_trading.py): ``end = now.replace(minute=0,...)``
snappava sempre all'ora; ETH 5m veniva quindi valutato 1 volta ogni 60 min
invece di ogni 5 min, riducendo la fedelta' al backtest tunato 5m.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import importlib.util
import sys
from datetime import UTC, datetime
from pathlib import Path
import pytest
_REPO_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3]
_RUNNER_PATH = _REPO_ROOT / "scripts" / "run_paper_trading.py"
def _load_runner_module():
spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("run_paper_trading", _RUNNER_PATH)
assert spec is not None and spec.loader is not None
module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec)
sys.modules["run_paper_trading"] = module
spec.loader.exec_module(module)
return module
@pytest.fixture(scope="module")
def runner():
return _load_runner_module()
@pytest.mark.parametrize(
"now, tf, expected",
[
# 5m: snap al boundary di 5 min, NON all'ora
(datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 37, 42, tzinfo=UTC), "5m", datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 35, tzinfo=UTC)),
(datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 35, 0, tzinfo=UTC), "5m", datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 35, tzinfo=UTC)),
(datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 34, 59, tzinfo=UTC), "5m", datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 30, tzinfo=UTC)),
# 1h: comportamento storico preservato
(datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 37, 42, tzinfo=UTC), "1h", datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)),
(datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 0, 0, tzinfo=UTC), "1h", datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)),
# 15m / 4h
(datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 22, 0, tzinfo=UTC), "15m", datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 15, tzinfo=UTC)),
(datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 22, 0, tzinfo=UTC), "4h", datetime(2026, 5, 18, 12, 0, tzinfo=UTC)),
],
)
def test_align_end_to_timeframe(runner, now, tf, expected) -> None:
assert runner._align_end_to_timeframe(now, tf) == expected
def test_align_end_5m_advances_every_5_minutes(runner) -> None:
"""Bug-regression: chiamate consecutive a 5 min di distanza devono
produrre end DIVERSI per tf=5m (prima del fix erano identici)."""
a = datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 30, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
b = datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 35, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
c = datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 40, 0, tzinfo=UTC)
ends = {runner._align_end_to_timeframe(t, "5m") for t in (a, b, c)}
assert len(ends) == 3
def test_align_end_1h_stable_within_hour(runner) -> None:
"""Per tf=1h, chiamate dentro la stessa ora devono dare lo stesso end."""
ends = {
runner._align_end_to_timeframe(datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, m, 0, tzinfo=UTC), "1h")
for m in (0, 15, 30, 45, 59)
}
assert ends == {datetime(2026, 5, 18, 14, 0, tzinfo=UTC)}
@@ -0,0 +1,110 @@
# Libro dei Frattali — Riassunto
**Autori:** Luca Serleto, Corrado Malanga
**Editore/Stampa:** Adobe InDesign, nov 2024
**Pagine:** 58 — **testo embedded ≈ nullo (~1.6 KB)**
**Estratto raw:** [_extracted/Libro_frattali.txt](_extracted/Libro_frattali.txt)
## Natura del documento
Il "Libro dei Frattali" è un **catalogo grafico** di pattern candlestick, non un testo discorsivo. Le pagine sono composte quasi interamente da figure (candle-chart estratti via trasformata di Fourier secondo la metodologia esposta nel companion paper [Pythagoras Trading Prediction](Pythagoras_Trading_Prediction.summary.md)).
L'estrazione testuale rivela **solo le etichette**:
| Pagina | Contenuto testuale |
|---|---|
| 1 | "Luca Serleto / Corrado Malanga / Libro dei Frattali" (frontespizio) |
| 2 | "Pattern da 3 candele a massimo 6 candele (LONG)" |
| 358 | "Pattern 1", "Pattern 2", …, "Pattern 57" — una riga per pagina |
**Tutto il resto è immagine.** L'utente ha esplicitamente richiesto che gli agenti **non passino dalle immagini** ma costruiscano schemi dai numeri.
## Struttura numerica deducibile (senza guardare le figure)
### Conteggio dei pattern
- **Totale pattern catalogati: 57**
- Numerati progressivamente da 1 a 57
- Tutti dichiarati "**LONG**" (segnali rialzisti)
- Tutti nel range **36 candele** (range 1 della tassonomia esposta in *Pythagoras Trading Prediction*, pp. 49)
### Coerenza col paper companion
Il paper *Pythagoras Trading Prediction* (p. 49) afferma testualmente:
> "Questa tipologia di pattern può estendersi fino a 6 candele, per questo motivo nel libro i pattern sono identificati con range da 3 a 6, da 6 a 12, da 12 a 24, da 24 a 39 e da 39 a 56."
⇒ Il Libro dei Frattali pubblicato copre **solo il primo range** (36 candele). Il numero massimo (56) della tassonomia coincide quasi esattamente con il numero di pattern catalogati (57) — possibile errore tipografico o discrepanza intenzionale di 1 unità.
### Pattern composti citati nel paper
Sempre nel paper companion (p. 53), è dichiarato che pattern di range superiore sono composti dai pattern semplici di range 1:
- **Pattern 13 = Pattern 3 + Pattern 11**
Implicazione: la numerazione del Libro NON è una sequenza temporale ma una **enumerazione di forme distinte** che fungono da "lettere" dell'alfabeto frattale; i pattern complessi sono "parole" composte.
## Spazio numerico (36 candele LONG)
Per i 57 pattern, l'**unico contenuto numerico estraibile senza vision** è il loro indice 157. Tuttavia il **dominio combinatorio** che il catalogo intende coprire può essere ricostruito teoricamente:
### Encoding compatto di una candela
Una candela in approssimazione discreta può essere ridotta a un simbolo dell'alfabeto:
- `U` = up (close > open) — bullish body
- `D` = down (close < open) — bearish body
- `0` = doji (close ≈ open)
Quindi una sequenza di 36 candele appartiene allo spazio `{U,D,0}^k` con k ∈ {3,4,5,6}.
| k | |Σᵏ| = 3ᵏ |
|---|---|
| 3 | 27 |
| 4 | 81 |
| 5 | 243 |
| 6 | 729 |
| **Tot** | **1080** sequenze teoriche |
57 pattern catalogati su 1080 sequenze ⇒ il catalogo seleziona ≈ **5.3%** dello spazio totale.
### Filtro implicito "LONG"
"LONG" implica che il pattern preceda un breakout/continuazione al rialzo. Restrizione plausibile:
- pattern terminanti con candela bullish forte, o
- pattern con dominanza U / 0 nelle ultime k-1 candele, o
- pattern strutturali noti dell'analisi tecnica (martello, inverted hammer, morning star, ecc.) — limitati a 36 candele.
## Numeri ricavabili dal Libro (l'unico set "puro")
Dal solo testo del Libro, gli agenti hanno accesso a:
1. **Cardinalità del catalogo**: 57
2. **Numerazione**: serie 1, 2, 3, …, 57
3. **Range candele**: [3, 6] (chiuso, intero)
4. **Direzione**: solo LONG
5. **Costante autori**: 2 (Serleto, Malanga)
6. **Edizione**: nov 2024
7. **Numero di pagine**: 58
## Indizi numerici per l'analisi di similitudine
| Numero | Match con Pythagoras Trading Prediction |
|---|---|
| 57 pattern | tassonomia bordo superiore = 56 (errore di 1) |
| 56 (bordo tassonomia) | numerologia: 56 = 8·7 = ottava·sacro |
| 3 (min candele) | numero sacro pitagorico (triade); 3 = lati triangolo Evideon |
| 6 (max candele) | numero perfetto (1+2+3); φ²-... |
| 6/3 = 2 | ratio 2 = ottava musicale |
| (max-min)/min = 1 | unità |
| log(57)/log(3) ≈ 3.69 | dimensione frattale di Hausdorff di insieme dimensionale 4 ≈ 3.69 |
## Punti utili per estrazione numerica (per il task di similitudini)
1. **N = 57** pattern → cardinality, da confrontare con 56 (bordo del paper), 528 Hz (Solfeggio), 588 candele indicatore
2. **k ∈ {3, 4, 5, 6}** → estremi del range
3. **Σ³⁺⁴⁺⁵⁺⁶ = 1080** sequenze teoriche (3ᵏ encoded) → 1080 = 8·135 = 2³·3³·5
4. **Tassonomia bordi**: 3, 6, 12, 24, 39, 56 — sequenza utile per fingerprint
5. **Direzione "LONG"** → variabile binaria
6. **Composizionalità**: Pattern 13 = Pattern 3 + Pattern 11 → grammar di pattern frattali
## Conclusione
Il Libro dei Frattali, **letto senza immagini**, è un oggetto numerico molto povero (57 etichette su 58 pagine). Per produrre similitudini significative tra i due testi, occorre:
1. Trattare il Libro come **schema combinatorio implicito** (1080 sequenze possibili, 57 selezionate)
2. Confrontare i **numeri-chiave** (3, 6, 57, range) con i numeri estratti dal paper teorico (φ, π, e, 528, 588, 137.0359, etc.)
3. Lasciare agli agenti il compito di **trovare ricorrenze, ratios, e dimensioni frattali** che colleghino i due insiemi numerici.
Vedere [Pythagoras_Trading_Prediction.summary.md](Pythagoras_Trading_Prediction.summary.md) per il dominio numerico del paper teorico.
@@ -0,0 +1,182 @@
# Pythagoras Trading Prediction — Riassunto
**Autori:** Luca Serleto, Corrado Malanga
**Editore/Stampa:** Adobe InDesign, dic 2024
**Pagine:** 66 — testo embedded ~91 KB (no immagini estraibili: figure presenti ma non analizzate per scelta esplicita dell'utente)
**Estratto raw:** [_extracted/Pythagoras_Trading_Prediction_.txt](_extracted/Pythagoras_Trading_Prediction_.txt)
## Tesi centrale
Il prezzo dei mercati finanziari è descrivibile come **funzione frattale**, scomponibile via **trasformata di Fourier** in componenti sinusoidali periodiche, e quindi proiettabile nel futuro. Il "parametro nascosto" che la fisica quantistica cerca da decenni è la **Coscienza** (entropia di Shannon ΔS), che modula sia la capacità di osservare/predire che la traiettoria stessa dei prezzi.
## Struttura del libro (4 parti)
1. **Parte teorica / coscienziale** (pp. 224): framework filosofico-fisico
2. **Frattali** (pp. 3744): indicatore frattale H-C
3. **Trasformata di Fourier** (pp. 4558): pattern catalogati e applicazione
4. **Piattaforma Pythagoras** (pp. 5966): manuale operativo (Auto + Manual mode)
## Concetti chiave (in ordine di apparizione)
### 1. Approccio "femminile" vs "maschile" alla predizione
- **Femminile/animico**: visione olografica del tempo (Pribram, Bohm), tutto co-presente nel presente; il cervello come "lettore di ologrammi"
- **Maschile/spirituale**: approccio galileiano-statistico via algoritmo
- Tesi: i due metodi vanno integrati
### 2. Probabilità → Certezza
> "Se il sistema predittivo è corretto al 10%, possiamo trovare il parametro che trasformi quella probabilità nella certezza al 100%."
Il parametro mancante è la **Coscienza**.
### 3. Teorema di ricorrenza di Poincaré
In meccanica hamiltoniana, in un sistema dinamico a spazio delle fasi limitato, lo stato può tornare arbitrariamente vicino a quello iniziale dopo tempo sufficiente. → Il tempo è **circolare**, gli eventi ricorrono → mercati ripetibili.
### 4. Entropia di Shannon S
- S = -log(W), W = microstati
- Coscienza ≡ S; **Consapevolezza ≡ ΔS** (variazione di entropia tra istante e successivo)
- Inizio universo: S = -∞; fine: S = 0; entropia totale = ∞
### 5. Hartman-Curry → "Indicatore frattale H-C"
- Introdotto da Corrado Malanga al XCongress di Pescara (2018)
- Prima applicazione su grafico EUR/USD
- Struttura tridimensionale costruita su "numeri universali" che genera ricorrenze
### 6. Numeri Universali (Evideon)
> "I numeri dell'universo sono: la sezione aurea φ, π, il numero di Eulero e, √2, ecc. Numeri irrazionali e trascendenti."
Triangolo rettangolo con costanti universali fisiche; lati moltiplicati per opportuni coefficienti basati su π, e, φ e temperatura assoluta di Kelvin/100.
**Costanti numeriche citate esplicitamente:**
- 137.0359 × √π / 2 = **121.449**
- 266.87 × 1 / √e = **161.86**
- Frequenze Solfeggio: **741, 528, 852, 639, 396, 417** (p. 27)
- Numero di Avogadro N = 6.022·10²³ (citato come ipotesi sul numero di sub-componenti dell'Universo)
### 7. Trasformata di Fourier
Scomposizione di qualsiasi funzione continua in seni e coseni:
- Frequenze positive (orario) e negative (antiorario) → propagazione **avanti e indietro nel tempo**
- Ricostruzione approssimata con N componenti → **N = misura della consapevolezza**
- Pochi N: previsione approssimativa; molti N: previsione accurata
### 8. Equazione di Schrödinger ↔ trading
Identificazione formale:
| Schrödinger | Trading |
|---|---|
| iℏ ∂Ψ/∂t = -ℏ²/(2m) ∂²Ψ/∂x² + V(x)Ψ | dinamica del prezzo |
| derivata seconda di Ψ in x | "piegatura" spazio-temporale del grafico |
| m | massa fittizia ≈ volume d'affari |
| V(Ψ) | perturbazioni esterne (manipolazione di mercato) |
| Ψ ampiezza | altezza candele (asse energia/prezzo) |
| Ψ² probabilità | probabilità che l'evento si materializzi |
Identificazione con energia libera di Gibbs: termine -TΔS della formula di Gibbs ≡ termine entropico in Schrödinger.
### 9. Centro di inversione (operazione geometrica chiave)
Sul modello "Evideon" (3 assi: spazio, tempo, energia), un punto A del passato si trasforma nel punto E del futuro tramite:
- **Riflessione speculare sull'asse verticale** (energia/prezzo)
- **Riflessione speculare sull'asse orizzontale** (tempo)
- = traslazione temporale + inversione di pattern
Inoltre il pattern subisce:
- **Compressione** o **dilatazione** sull'asse x (tempo)
- **Compressione** o **dilatazione** sull'asse y (prezzo)
A seconda della posizione del punto sull'Evideon (tempo sotto-multiplo → contrazione).
### 10. Finestra di Overton
- Apertura temporale che definisce "il presente"
- Analogia con SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar): più larga la finestra, più precisa la previsione
- Pythagoras applica la stessa finestra al passato per proiettare nel futuro
### 11. ZPE (Zero Point Energy)
Universo non vuoto: pieno di particelle e anti-particelle che si annichiliscono. Permette di "conoscere perfettamente coordinate spazio-temporali e valore nullo dell'energia": non c'è incertezza vera (contro Heisenberg).
### 12. Indicatore frattale su TradingView
Disponibile su licenza dedicata. Parametri operativi:
- Tracciato da minimo → massimo
- **25 linee verticali** all'interno di **588 candele**
- 90% segnala accelerazione (aumento volatilità), 10% lateralizzazione
- Tolleranza ±3 ore su time frame 1H/4H
- **Linee blu inclinate** = supporti/resistenze tempo-condizionati
- **Cerchi bianchi** = obiettivi di prezzo circolari
### 13. Pattern range (taxonomy del Book dei Frattali)
| Range | Numero candele |
|---|---|
| Range 1 | 3 6 candele |
| Range 2 | 6 12 candele |
| Range 3 | 12 24 candele |
| Range 4 | 24 39 candele |
| Range 5 | 39 56 candele |
I pattern oltre 6 candele diventano "frattali complessi": composizione di pattern semplici (es. Pattern 13 = Pattern 3 + Pattern 11).
### 14. Variabili che NON alterano il target
- Inclinazione del pattern
- Ampiezza
- Curvatura
- Numero di candele entro lo stesso range
→ il target di proiezione è invariante per queste deformazioni.
### 15. Variabili che alterano l'applicabilità
- **Time frame**: 15m, 1H, 4H, 1D
- **Volatilità dell'asset** ("consapevolezza dell'asset")
- **Leva finanziaria**
## Esempi concreti citati
| Pattern | Asset | Data/Ora | TF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTC | 28 ago 2024 00:00 | 15m |
| 1 | ETH | 28 ago 2024 00:00 | 15m |
| 1 | Oro | 29 ago 2024 14:30 | 15m |
| 1 | Argento | 17 lug 2024 18:15 | 15m |
| 13 | BTC | 24 ago 2024 23:15 | 15m |
| 13 | ETH | 24 ago 2024 23:45 | 15m |
| 13 | Oro | 02 ago 2024 16:45 | 15m |
| 13 | Argento | 02 ago 2024 16:45 | 15m |
| 15 | DJT (Trump Media) | 12 lug 2024 (chiusura) | 1D |
Il caso DJT è presentato come "predizione" dell'attentato a Trump del 14 lug 2024 (frattale complesso al rialzo formatosi il 12 lug → escludeva evento negativo).
## Piattaforma Pythagoras
### Auto Mode
1. Seleziona asset
2. Seleziona TF (15m, 1H, 4H)
3. Click "Predict" → Fourier identifica frattale e proietta futuro (colore giallo)
### Manual Mode
1. Seleziona asset
2. Seleziona frattale dal Book per data
3. Click "Predict" → proiezione
## Disclaimer interno al testo
> "Anche se si conosce un potenziale futuro, questo non è garanzia di guadagno. Solo la consapevolezza del trader, basata sull'esperienza, potrà trasformare la predizione di un potenziale futuro in un profitto concreto."
Il testo enfatizza che il **target del trader non è guadagnare ma capire sé stesso** (approccio "coscienziale"). Il denaro è strumento di apprendimento dell'entropia/dualità.
## Punti utili per estrazione numerica (per il task di similitudini)
1. **Numeri universali esatti**: φ ≈ 1.6180339887, π ≈ 3.1415926535, e ≈ 2.71828, √2 ≈ 1.41421
2. **Costanti derivate dal testo**: 137.0359, 121.449, 266.87, 161.86
3. **Frequenze Solfeggio (Hz)**: 396, 417, 528, 639, 741, 852
4. **Conteggi operativi**: 25 linee/588 candele = ratio 0.0425
5. **Numeri ricorrenti**: 6.022·10²³ (Avogadro)
6. **Range candele**: bordi 3, 6, 12, 24, 39, 56 — sequenza con incrementi 3, 6, 12, 15, 17 (NON Fibonacci puro, ma sequenza con ratios ~2x)
7. **Ratios tra bordi**: 6/3=2, 12/6=2, 24/12=2, 39/24=1.625, 56/39=1.436 — gli ultimi due si avvicinano a φ ≈ 1.618 e √2 ≈ 1.414
8. **Sequenza pattern numerati**: 1, 2, 3, ... 57 (matching col Libro dei Frattali)
9. **Operazioni geometriche**: mirror H, mirror V, scaling x/y (4 trasformazioni)
10. **TF candidati**: 15m, 1H, 4H, 1D (multipli 4x e 6x)
## Bibliografia interna / link YouTube citati
- youtube.com/shorts/OnM09uMCS50 (teorema di Poincaré)
- youtu.be/hHig-PP4Mcs (gravità come Coscienza)
- youtu.be/HTIYZBrzZbM (struttura dell'Evideon)
## Opere citate degli autori
- Corrado Malanga, *Io e Dio*, Spazio Interiore, Roma
- Corrado Malanga, *Trilogia della Coscienza*, Spazio Interiore, Roma
- Corrado Malanga al XCongress, Pescara, 2018 (intro pattern H-C)
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===PAGE 1===
Luca Serleto
Corrado Malanga
Libro dei Libro dei
FrattaliFrattali
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# strategy_pythagoras
Strategia di trading basata sul framework **Pythagoras-Malanga**
(candle-pattern + geometria frattale), evoluta via GA sul core
`multi_swarm_core`. Workspace member del monorepo `multi_swarm_coevolutive`.
## Scope
Pipeline coevolutiva su candele OHLC: il GA del core esplora combinazioni
di indicatori candle-pattern, geometria pitagorica e ratio frattali, e
produce strategie JSON freezate. Questo member le esegue in
**paper-trading forward-test** ed espone una dashboard NiceGUI per
analisi invarianza scala/tick e candle.
## Layout
```
strategy_pythagoras/
├── backend/ paper trading runner (PaperExecutor, Portfolio, PaperRepository)
│ └── schema.py tabelle paper_trading_* (DB locale dedicato)
├── frontend/ NiceGUI dashboard (tab invariance, candle, equity, ticks)
├── strategies/ JSON freezate input al runner
│ (pythagoras_*.json)
└── prompts.json 7 stili di prompt LLM (candle-pattern, frattale, ratio,
pivot, kagi, renko, hybrid)
```
## Run paper-trading smoke
```bash
uv run python scripts/run_pythagoras_smoke.py \
--name pythagoras-smoke-001 \
--initial-capital 1000 \
--poll-seconds 300
```
Il default `--strategies-dir` punta ai JSON shippati col package via
`importlib.resources.files("strategy_pythagoras") / "strategies"`.
## Dashboard
```bash
uv run python -m strategy_pythagoras.frontend.nicegui_app
```
In produzione: `https://swarm.tielogic.xyz/strategy_pythagoras_gui/`
(root_path configurato via `DASHBOARD_ROOT_PATH=/strategy_pythagoras_gui`).
## DB schema
Schema isolato dal core e dalle altre strategie. Due DB distinti:
- `state/strategy_pythagoras.db` — GA + analisi invarianza
(env `STRATEGY_PYTHAGORAS_DB_PATH`)
- `state/strategy_pythagoras_paper.db` — paper-trading runs
(env `STRATEGY_PYTHAGORAS_PAPER_DB_PATH`)
Tabelle paper-trading:
- `paper_trading_runs` — metadata run (id, name, capital, status)
- `paper_trading_positions` — posizioni aperte (long/short)
- `paper_trading_trades` — trade realized (entry/exit, pnl, fees)
- `paper_trading_equity` — equity curve snapshot
- `paper_trading_ticks` — log signal/action per ogni bar
DDL gestito da `strategy_pythagoras.backend.schema.init_schema()`.
La dashboard legge **anche** il `runs.db` del core GA (env `GA_DB_PATH`)
per correlare paper performance con i genomi di provenienza e con i
risultati di fitness invariance.
## References
- Spec: `docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-19-strategy-pythagoras-design.md`
- Plan: `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-05-19-strategy-pythagoras.md`
- Summary paper: `Pythagoras/Pythagoras_Trading_Prediction.summary.md`
- Summary frattali: `Pythagoras/Libro_frattali.summary.md`
- Pattern member: vedi `src/strategy_crypto/README.md`
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[project]
name = "strategy-pythagoras"
version = "0.1.0"
description = "Strategy Pythagoras: candle-pattern GA su framework Pythagoras-Malanga, paper-trading runner + NiceGUI dashboard"
authors = [{ name = "Adriano Dal Pastro", email = "adrianodalpastro@tielogic.com" }]
requires-python = ">=3.13"
dependencies = [
"multi-swarm-core",
"nicegui>=3.11.1",
"plotly>=5.24",
"pandas>=2.2",
"pyarrow>=18.0",
]
[build-system]
requires = ["hatchling"]
build-backend = "hatchling.build"
[tool.hatch.build.targets.wheel.force-include]
"strategy_pythagoras/strategies" = "strategy_pythagoras/strategies"
"strategy_pythagoras/prompts.json" = "strategy_pythagoras/prompts.json"
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
"""Backend paper-trading per la strategia strategy_pythagoras.
Espone le classi principali per import ergonomici in scripts/runner:
from strategy_pythagoras.backend import PaperExecutor, Portfolio, PaperRepository
Per i tipi interni (TickResult, OpenPosition, Trade) importare dal sotto-modulo.
"""
from .executor import PaperExecutor, TickResult
from .persistence import PaperRepository
from .portfolio import OpenPosition, Portfolio
from .schema import PAPER_SCHEMA_SQL, init_schema
__all__ = [
"PAPER_SCHEMA_SQL",
"OpenPosition",
"PaperExecutor",
"PaperRepository",
"Portfolio",
"TickResult",
"init_schema",
]
@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
"""PaperExecutor: applica un segnale di strategia a un Portfolio.
Il flusso per ogni tick:
bar OHLCV chiuso -> compile_strategy(strategy) -> Series[Side]
-> last_signal = series.iloc[-1]
-> match con posizione attuale -> open / close / hold
Niente delay 1-bar: in paper-trading il segnale viene calcolato sulla
barra appena chiusa e applicato al prezzo close della stessa. La latenza
reale tra tick e ordine va misurata separatamente (Phase 3 spec).
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
from dataclasses import dataclass
from datetime import datetime
from pathlib import Path
import pandas as pd # type: ignore[import-untyped]
from multi_swarm_core.backtest.orders import Side, Trade
from multi_swarm_core.protocol.compiler import compile_strategy
from multi_swarm_core.protocol.parser import parse_strategy
from .portfolio import OpenPosition, Portfolio
@dataclass
class TickResult:
ts: datetime
symbol: str
bar_ts: datetime
close_price: float
signal: Side
action_taken: str # "open_long" | "open_short" | "close" | "reverse" | "hold"
trade: Trade | None = None
new_position: OpenPosition | None = None
class PaperExecutor:
def __init__(self, strategy_json_path: Path, symbol: str) -> None:
text = strategy_json_path.read_text()
# parse_strategy si aspetta JSON pulito, non fence; il file e' gia' JSON.
self._strategy = parse_strategy(text)
self._compiled = compile_strategy(self._strategy)
self.symbol = symbol
self.strategy_path = strategy_json_path
def execute_tick(
self,
portfolio: Portfolio,
ohlcv: pd.DataFrame,
now: datetime,
) -> TickResult:
"""Esegui un tick: calcola segnale su tutto ``ohlcv`` (per indicatori
con lookback), prendi l'ultimo, e applica al portfolio."""
if len(ohlcv) == 0:
raise ValueError("Empty OHLCV passed to execute_tick")
signals = self._compiled(ohlcv)
# ultimo bar chiuso
bar_ts = ohlcv.index[-1]
close_price = float(ohlcv["close"].iloc[-1])
signal = Side(signals.iloc[-1]) if signals.iloc[-1] is not None else Side.FLAT
current = portfolio.positions.get(self.symbol)
action = "hold"
trade: Trade | None = None
new_position: OpenPosition | None = None
if current is None and signal != Side.FLAT:
new_position = portfolio.open(self.symbol, signal, close_price, now)
action = f"open_{signal.value}"
elif current is not None and signal == Side.FLAT:
trade = portfolio.close(self.symbol, close_price, now)
action = "close"
elif current is not None and signal != current.side:
# reverse: chiudi e riapri opposto
trade = portfolio.close(self.symbol, close_price, now)
new_position = portfolio.open(self.symbol, signal, close_price, now)
action = "reverse"
return TickResult(
ts=now,
symbol=self.symbol,
bar_ts=bar_ts.to_pydatetime() if hasattr(bar_ts, "to_pydatetime") else bar_ts,
close_price=close_price,
signal=signal,
action_taken=action,
trade=trade,
new_position=new_position,
)
@property
def strategy_dict(self) -> dict:
return json.loads(self.strategy_path.read_text())
@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
"""Persistenza paper-trading: scrive su un DB dedicato (state/strategy_pythagoras_paper.db)
con le tabelle ``paper_trading_*`` definite localmente in :mod:`.schema`.
Il DB e' isolato dal ``runs.db`` del core GA: nessun naming conflict con
future strategie (state/strategy_<asset>.db), nessuna contention di lock
fra writer GA e writer paper.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import sqlite3
import uuid
from datetime import UTC, datetime
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any
from .executor import TickResult
from .portfolio import Portfolio
from .schema import init_schema as _init_paper_schema
class PaperRepository:
def __init__(self, db_path: Path | str):
self.db_path = Path(db_path)
def init_schema(self) -> None:
"""Crea (se mancanti) le tabelle paper_trading_* su ``self.db_path``."""
_init_paper_schema(self.db_path)
def _conn(self) -> sqlite3.Connection:
conn = sqlite3.connect(self.db_path, isolation_level=None)
conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row
conn.execute("PRAGMA foreign_keys = ON")
conn.execute("PRAGMA journal_mode = WAL")
return conn
@staticmethod
def _now() -> str:
return datetime.now(UTC).isoformat()
def create_run(self, name: str, initial_capital: float, config: dict[str, Any]) -> str:
rid = uuid.uuid4().hex
with self._conn() as conn:
conn.execute(
"INSERT INTO paper_trading_runs "
"(id, name, started_at, status, initial_capital, config_json) "
"VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?)",
(rid, name, self._now(), "running", initial_capital, json.dumps(config)),
)
return rid
def stop_run(self, run_id: str, status: str = "stopped") -> None:
with self._conn() as conn:
conn.execute(
"UPDATE paper_trading_runs SET stopped_at=?, status=? WHERE id=?",
(self._now(), status, run_id),
)
def save_tick(self, run_id: str, tick: TickResult) -> None:
with self._conn() as conn:
conn.execute(
"INSERT INTO paper_trading_ticks "
"(paper_run_id, symbol, ts, bar_ts, close_price, signal, action_taken) "
"VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?)",
(
run_id,
tick.symbol,
tick.ts.isoformat(),
tick.bar_ts.isoformat() if hasattr(tick.bar_ts, "isoformat") else str(tick.bar_ts),
tick.close_price,
tick.signal.value,
tick.action_taken,
),
)
if tick.trade is not None:
t = tick.trade
conn.execute(
"INSERT INTO paper_trading_trades "
"(paper_run_id, symbol, side, qty, entry_price, exit_price, "
"entry_ts, exit_ts, pnl, fees) VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)",
(
run_id,
tick.symbol,
t.side.value,
t.size,
t.entry_price,
t.exit_price,
t.entry_ts.isoformat(),
t.exit_ts.isoformat(),
t.net_pnl,
t.fees,
),
)
def save_equity_snapshot(
self,
run_id: str,
ts: datetime,
equity: float,
cash: float,
positions_value: float,
) -> None:
with self._conn() as conn:
conn.execute(
"INSERT INTO paper_trading_equity "
"(paper_run_id, ts, equity, cash, positions_value) VALUES (?,?,?,?,?)",
(run_id, ts.isoformat(), equity, cash, positions_value),
)
def sync_open_positions(self, run_id: str, portfolio: Portfolio) -> None:
"""Sostituisce snapshot posizioni aperte. Idempotente: cancella e reinserisce."""
with self._conn() as conn:
conn.execute(
"DELETE FROM paper_trading_positions WHERE paper_run_id=?", (run_id,)
)
for sym, pos in portfolio.positions.items():
conn.execute(
"INSERT INTO paper_trading_positions "
"(paper_run_id, symbol, side, qty, entry_price, entry_ts) "
"VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?)",
(run_id, sym, pos.side.value, pos.qty, pos.entry_price, pos.entry_ts.isoformat()),
)
@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
"""Portfolio multi-asset per paper-trading.
Modello semplificato: capitale unico ``cash``, allocazione equal-weight
fra N posizioni (sleeve = 1/N del capitale iniziale per ogni simbolo).
Niente leva, niente liquidation, fees su entry+exit (bp del notional).
Una :class:`Position` rappresenta una posizione aperta su un singolo
simbolo (long/short, qty in unita' dell'asset, prezzo di entry). La
posizione viene chiusa con :meth:`Portfolio.close` che produce un
:class:`Trade` realized e accredita ``cash``.
Mark-to-market via :meth:`Portfolio.equity`.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from datetime import datetime
from multi_swarm_core.backtest.orders import Side, Trade
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class OpenPosition:
symbol: str
side: Side
qty: float
entry_price: float
entry_ts: datetime
@dataclass
class Portfolio:
initial_capital: float
fees_bp: float = 5.0
n_sleeves: int = 2 # numero strategie / asset previsti
cash: float = field(init=False)
positions: dict[str, OpenPosition] = field(default_factory=dict)
closed_trades: list[Trade] = field(default_factory=list)
def __post_init__(self) -> None:
self.cash = self.initial_capital
@property
def sleeve_capital(self) -> float:
return self.initial_capital / self.n_sleeves
def open(
self,
symbol: str,
side: Side,
price: float,
ts: datetime,
) -> OpenPosition:
if symbol in self.positions:
raise ValueError(f"Position already open on {symbol}")
if side == Side.FLAT:
raise ValueError("Cannot open a FLAT position")
# sleeve fisso: alloca 1/n_sleeves del capitale iniziale, qty = notional/price.
notional = self.sleeve_capital
qty = notional / price
fees = notional * (self.fees_bp / 10000.0)
self.cash -= fees
pos = OpenPosition(symbol=symbol, side=side, qty=qty, entry_price=price, entry_ts=ts)
self.positions[symbol] = pos
return pos
def close(
self,
symbol: str,
price: float,
ts: datetime,
) -> Trade:
if symbol not in self.positions:
raise ValueError(f"No open position on {symbol}")
pos = self.positions.pop(symbol)
trade = Trade(
entry_ts=pos.entry_ts,
exit_ts=ts,
side=pos.side,
size=pos.qty,
entry_price=pos.entry_price,
exit_price=price,
fees_bp=self.fees_bp,
)
# net_pnl include gia' i fees sull'intero round-trip; abbiamo gia'
# addebitato meta' fees all'open, ora addebitiamo il resto.
self.cash += trade.gross_pnl - (trade.fees / 2.0)
self.closed_trades.append(trade)
return trade
def equity(self, last_prices: dict[str, float]) -> tuple[float, float]:
"""Ritorna (equity_totale, positions_value) marcando posizioni aperte
al ``last_prices[symbol]``. Posizioni senza prezzo disponibile valgono
notional di entry (fallback conservativo)."""
positions_value = 0.0
for sym, pos in self.positions.items():
price = last_prices.get(sym, pos.entry_price)
unreal = pos.qty * (
price - pos.entry_price if pos.side == Side.LONG
else pos.entry_price - price
)
positions_value += pos.qty * pos.entry_price + unreal
return self.cash + positions_value, positions_value
@@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
"""Schema SQLite per le tabelle paper-trading della strategia pythagoras.
Owned dal member strategy_pythagoras: il DDL e' standalone rispetto al core,
e scrive su un database dedicato (state/strategy_pythagoras_paper.db, env
STRATEGY_PYTHAGORAS_PAPER_DB_PATH) separato dal runs.db del core GA. Pattern
replicabile per future strategie.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sqlite3
from pathlib import Path
PAPER_SCHEMA_SQL = """
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS paper_trading_runs (
id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
name TEXT NOT NULL,
started_at TEXT NOT NULL,
stopped_at TEXT,
status TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'running',
initial_capital REAL NOT NULL,
config_json TEXT NOT NULL
);
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS paper_trading_positions (
paper_run_id TEXT NOT NULL,
symbol TEXT NOT NULL,
side TEXT NOT NULL,
qty REAL NOT NULL,
entry_price REAL NOT NULL,
entry_ts TEXT NOT NULL,
PRIMARY KEY (paper_run_id, symbol),
FOREIGN KEY (paper_run_id) REFERENCES paper_trading_runs(id)
);
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS paper_trading_trades (
id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
paper_run_id TEXT NOT NULL,
symbol TEXT NOT NULL,
side TEXT NOT NULL,
qty REAL NOT NULL,
entry_price REAL NOT NULL,
exit_price REAL NOT NULL,
entry_ts TEXT NOT NULL,
exit_ts TEXT NOT NULL,
pnl REAL NOT NULL,
fees REAL NOT NULL,
FOREIGN KEY (paper_run_id) REFERENCES paper_trading_runs(id)
);
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS paper_trading_equity (
id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
paper_run_id TEXT NOT NULL,
ts TEXT NOT NULL,
equity REAL NOT NULL,
cash REAL NOT NULL,
positions_value REAL NOT NULL,
FOREIGN KEY (paper_run_id) REFERENCES paper_trading_runs(id)
);
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS paper_trading_ticks (
id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
paper_run_id TEXT NOT NULL,
symbol TEXT NOT NULL,
ts TEXT NOT NULL,
bar_ts TEXT NOT NULL,
close_price REAL NOT NULL,
signal TEXT NOT NULL,
action_taken TEXT NOT NULL,
FOREIGN KEY (paper_run_id) REFERENCES paper_trading_runs(id)
);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_paper_trades_run ON paper_trading_trades(paper_run_id, exit_ts);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_paper_equity_run ON paper_trading_equity(paper_run_id, ts);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_paper_ticks_run ON paper_trading_ticks(paper_run_id, ts);
"""
def init_schema(db_path: Path | str) -> None:
"""Crea (se mancanti) le tabelle paper_trading_* sul db indicato."""
Path(db_path).parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
conn = sqlite3.connect(str(db_path))
try:
conn.executescript(PAPER_SCHEMA_SQL)
conn.commit()
finally:
conn.close()
@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
"""Bonus di asset-invariance per la fitness del GA.
corr_signal = frazione di entries su asset A che hanno corrispondenza su asset B
entro +/-tolerance_bars (default 36 = 3h su 5m TF, vedi paper Pythagoras p. 43).
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import os
import pandas as pd
GA_INVARIANCE_ALPHA = float(os.getenv("GA_INVARIANCE_ALPHA", "0.3"))
GA_INVARIANCE_TOLERANCE_BARS = int(os.getenv("GA_INVARIANCE_TOLERANCE_BARS", "36"))
def corr_signal(
entries_a: pd.Series,
entries_b: pd.Series,
tolerance_bars: int = GA_INVARIANCE_TOLERANCE_BARS,
) -> float:
"""Frazione di entries A con match in B entro +/-tolerance_bars.
Args:
entries_a, entries_b: Series binarie {0,1} sullo stesso index temporale (interi).
tolerance_bars: finestra di tolleranza in barre.
Returns:
In [0, 1]. 0 se entries_a non ha alcuna entry o nessun match.
"""
a_idx = entries_a[entries_a > 0].index.tolist()
b_idx = entries_b[entries_b > 0].index.tolist()
if not a_idx or not b_idx:
return 0.0
b_set = set(b_idx)
matched = 0
for ti in a_idx:
for delta in range(-tolerance_bars, tolerance_bars + 1):
if (ti + delta) in b_set:
matched += 1
break
return matched / len(a_idx)
def apply_invariance_bonus(
base_fitness: float,
invariance_score: float,
alpha: float = GA_INVARIANCE_ALPHA,
) -> float:
"""``fitness * (1 + alpha * invariance_score)``."""
return base_fitness * (1.0 + alpha * invariance_score)
@@ -0,0 +1,215 @@
"""Paper-trading data access functions for the strategy_pythagoras dashboard.
Reads exclusively from strategy_pythagoras_paper.db (paper_trading_* tables)
per il paper-trading; le funzioni dedicate ai winner Pythagoras leggono
invece dal runs.db del core GA (env ``GA_DB_PATH``), default
``state/strategy_pythagoras.db`` via env ``STRATEGY_PYTHAGORAS_DB_PATH`` quando
si vuole usare una sotto-tabella locale.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import sqlite3
import time
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any
import pandas as pd # type: ignore[import-untyped]
def _paper_conn(db_path: str | Path) -> sqlite3.Connection:
# Cold-start race: GUI può avviarsi prima che il paper writer crei il file.
db_path_str = str(db_path)
deadline = time.monotonic() + 5.0
while True:
try:
conn = sqlite3.connect(db_path_str, timeout=5.0)
conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row
return conn
except sqlite3.OperationalError:
if time.monotonic() >= deadline:
raise
time.sleep(1.0)
def paper_runs_df(db_path: str | Path) -> pd.DataFrame:
with _paper_conn(db_path) as conn:
rows = conn.execute(
"SELECT id, name, started_at, stopped_at, status, initial_capital, config_json "
"FROM paper_trading_runs ORDER BY started_at DESC"
).fetchall()
return pd.DataFrame([dict(r) for r in rows])
def paper_equity_df(db_path: str | Path, run_id: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
with _paper_conn(db_path) as conn:
rows = conn.execute(
"SELECT ts, equity, cash, positions_value FROM paper_trading_equity "
"WHERE paper_run_id=? ORDER BY ts ASC",
(run_id,),
).fetchall()
return pd.DataFrame([dict(r) for r in rows])
def paper_positions_df(db_path: str | Path, run_id: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
with _paper_conn(db_path) as conn:
rows = conn.execute(
"SELECT symbol, side, qty, entry_price, entry_ts "
"FROM paper_trading_positions WHERE paper_run_id=? ORDER BY symbol",
(run_id,),
).fetchall()
return pd.DataFrame([dict(r) for r in rows])
def paper_trades_df(db_path: str | Path, run_id: str, limit: int = 100) -> pd.DataFrame:
with _paper_conn(db_path) as conn:
rows = conn.execute(
"SELECT symbol, side, qty, entry_price, exit_price, entry_ts, exit_ts, pnl, fees "
"FROM paper_trading_trades WHERE paper_run_id=? ORDER BY exit_ts DESC LIMIT ?",
(run_id, limit),
).fetchall()
return pd.DataFrame([dict(r) for r in rows])
def paper_ticks_df(db_path: str | Path, run_id: str, limit: int = 50) -> pd.DataFrame:
with _paper_conn(db_path) as conn:
rows = conn.execute(
"SELECT ts, bar_ts, symbol, close_price, signal, action_taken "
"FROM paper_trading_ticks WHERE paper_run_id=? ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT ?",
(run_id, limit),
).fetchall()
return pd.DataFrame([dict(r) for r in rows])
def paper_run_summary(db_path: str | Path, run_id: str) -> dict[str, Any]:
"""Aggrega metriche sintetiche per la pagina paper trading."""
with _paper_conn(db_path) as conn:
run = conn.execute(
"SELECT id, name, started_at, stopped_at, status, initial_capital, config_json "
"FROM paper_trading_runs WHERE id=?",
(run_id,),
).fetchone()
if run is None:
return {}
run = dict(run)
eq_row = conn.execute(
"SELECT equity, cash, positions_value, ts FROM paper_trading_equity "
"WHERE paper_run_id=? ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1",
(run_id,),
).fetchone()
trades_agg = conn.execute(
"SELECT COUNT(*) AS n, COALESCE(SUM(pnl),0) AS sum_pnl, "
"COALESCE(SUM(fees),0) AS sum_fees FROM paper_trading_trades "
"WHERE paper_run_id=?",
(run_id,),
).fetchone()
tick_agg = conn.execute(
"SELECT COUNT(*) AS n, MAX(ts) AS last_ts FROM paper_trading_ticks "
"WHERE paper_run_id=?",
(run_id,),
).fetchone()
positions_n = conn.execute(
"SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM paper_trading_positions WHERE paper_run_id=?",
(run_id,),
).fetchone()["n"]
initial = float(run["initial_capital"])
current_equity = float(eq_row["equity"]) if eq_row is not None else initial
pnl_pct = (current_equity - initial) / initial * 100.0 if initial else 0.0
return {
"id": run["id"],
"name": run["name"],
"status": run["status"],
"started_at": run["started_at"],
"stopped_at": run["stopped_at"],
"initial_capital": initial,
"config": json.loads(run["config_json"]),
"current_equity": current_equity,
"current_cash": float(eq_row["cash"]) if eq_row is not None else initial,
"current_positions_value": float(eq_row["positions_value"]) if eq_row is not None else 0.0,
"last_equity_ts": eq_row["ts"] if eq_row is not None else None,
"pnl_abs": current_equity - initial,
"pnl_pct": pnl_pct,
"n_trades": int(trades_agg["n"]),
"trades_pnl": float(trades_agg["sum_pnl"]),
"trades_fees": float(trades_agg["sum_fees"]),
"n_ticks": int(tick_agg["n"]),
"last_tick_ts": tick_agg["last_ts"],
"n_open_positions": int(positions_n),
}
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Pythagoras-specific helpers (winners invariance + candle pattern usage)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def load_invariance_metrics(ga_db_path: str) -> "pd.DataFrame":
"""Per ogni winner ritorna (genome_id, cognitive_style, fitness, sharpe_btc, sharpe_eth, invariance_score).
Lo schema atteso e' la tabella ``pythagoras_winners`` creata dal runner
``scripts/run_pythagoras_smoke.py`` (Task 6.1).
"""
import sqlite3
import pandas as pd
con = sqlite3.connect(ga_db_path)
try:
return pd.read_sql_query(
"SELECT genome_id, cognitive_style, fitness, sharpe_btc, sharpe_eth, "
"invariance_score FROM pythagoras_winners ORDER BY fitness DESC",
con,
)
finally:
con.close()
def load_candle_pattern_usage(ga_db_path: str) -> "pd.DataFrame":
"""Per ogni winner estrae le sequenze candle_pattern usate (per heatmap)."""
import json
import sqlite3
import pandas as pd
con = sqlite3.connect(ga_db_path)
try:
df = pd.read_sql_query(
"SELECT genome_id, cognitive_style, rules_json FROM pythagoras_winners",
con,
)
finally:
con.close()
records: list[dict] = []
for _, row in df.iterrows():
rules = json.loads(row["rules_json"]).get("rules", [])
for r in rules:
for ind_name, params in _walk_indicators(r["condition"]):
if ind_name == "candle_pattern":
length = int(params[0])
syms = [int(s) for s in params[1: 1 + length]]
seq_str = "".join({0: "U", 1: "D", 2: "0"}[s] for s in syms)
records.append(
{
"genome_id": row["genome_id"],
"cognitive_style": row["cognitive_style"],
"sequence": seq_str,
"length": length,
}
)
return pd.DataFrame.from_records(records)
def _walk_indicators(node: dict):
"""Yields (indicator_name, params) for every IndicatorNode in the AST."""
if "op" in node:
for a in node.get("args", []):
yield from _walk_indicators(a)
elif node.get("kind") == "indicator":
yield node["name"], node["params"]
@@ -0,0 +1,421 @@
"""Strategy Pythagoras Dashboard — paper-trading + GA winners page: /.
Avvio: ``uv run python -m strategy_pythagoras.frontend.nicegui_app``
Default port 8080. Legge il paper DB (``strategy_pythagoras_paper.db``) per il
tab ``Paper`` e il GA DB (``strategy_pythagoras.db``) per i tab pythagoras-specifici
(Genomes / Patterns / Ratios / Invariance).
Palette "Neon Trading Dashboard" (ispirata screenshot 2026-05-11):
- BG: #0A0A0F (near-black con tinge blu)
- Surface: #13131A (card base)
- Surface elevata: #1C1C26 (hover/active)
- Primary pink: #FF2D87 (highlight key metrics, max fitness)
- Secondary cyan: #00D9FF (median, secondary curves)
- Accent amber: #FFB800 (warnings, p90)
- Success neon green: #00E676, Danger neon red: #FF3D60
- Text: #FFFFFF (primary), #7A7A8C (muted)
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import os
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any
import pandas as pd # type: ignore[import-untyped]
import plotly.graph_objects as go # type: ignore[import-untyped]
from nicegui import app, ui
from strategy_pythagoras.frontend.data import (
load_candle_pattern_usage,
load_invariance_metrics,
paper_equity_df,
paper_positions_df,
paper_run_summary,
paper_runs_df,
paper_ticks_df,
paper_trades_df,
)
from multi_swarm_core.dashboard.theme import (
COLOR_PRIMARY,
COLOR_SURFACE,
COLOR_SURFACE_2,
COLOR_TEXT,
COLOR_TEXT_MUTED,
_STATUS_BADGE,
_apply_theme,
_build_header,
)
PAPER_DB_PATH = os.environ.get(
"STRATEGY_PYTHAGORAS_PAPER_DB_PATH", "./state/strategy_pythagoras_paper.db"
)
GA_DB_PATH = os.environ.get(
"STRATEGY_PYTHAGORAS_DB_PATH", "./state/strategy_pythagoras.db"
)
DASHBOARD_ROOT_PATH = os.environ.get("DASHBOARD_ROOT_PATH", "/strategy_pythagoras_gui")
REFRESH_INTERVAL_S = 3.0
def _paper_runs_options(only_running: bool = False) -> dict[str, str]:
try:
runs = paper_runs_df(PAPER_DB_PATH)
except Exception:
return {}
if runs.empty:
return {}
if only_running:
runs = runs[runs["status"] == "running"]
if runs.empty:
return {}
return {
row["id"]: f"{row['name']}{row['status']} ({row['started_at'][:16]})"
for _, row in runs.iterrows()
}
def _paper_equity_figure(eq_df: Any, initial_capital: float) -> go.Figure:
fig = go.Figure()
if eq_df is not None and not eq_df.empty:
ts = pd.to_datetime(eq_df["ts"])
fig.add_trace(
go.Scatter(
x=ts,
y=eq_df["equity"],
mode="lines",
line={"color": COLOR_PRIMARY, "width": 2},
name="equity",
)
)
fig.add_hline(
y=initial_capital,
line={"color": COLOR_TEXT_MUTED, "width": 1, "dash": "dash"},
annotation_text=f"initial ${initial_capital:.0f}",
annotation_position="bottom right",
annotation_font_color=COLOR_TEXT_MUTED,
)
fig.update_layout(
title=None,
paper_bgcolor=COLOR_SURFACE,
plot_bgcolor=COLOR_SURFACE,
font={"color": COLOR_TEXT, "family": "Inter"},
xaxis={"gridcolor": COLOR_SURFACE_2, "title": None},
yaxis={"gridcolor": COLOR_SURFACE_2, "title": "Equity ($)"},
margin={"l": 60, "r": 20, "t": 10, "b": 40},
height=320,
showlegend=False,
)
return fig
def _render_paper_panel() -> None:
"""Rende il pannello paper-trading (equivalente alla pagina root di strategy_crypto)."""
options = _paper_runs_options()
if not options:
ui.label("Nessuna paper-trading run nel database.").classes("text-h6 text-warning")
ui.label(
"Avvia un paper run per popolare strategy_pythagoras_paper.db."
).classes("text-caption")
return
state: dict[str, Any] = {"run_id": next(iter(options))}
with ui.row().classes("w-full items-center gap-4 q-mb-md"):
select = ui.select(options=options, value=state["run_id"], label="Paper run").classes(
"flex-grow"
)
status_badge = ui.badge("", color="primary").classes("text-body1 q-pa-sm")
ui.button("🔄 Refresh", on_click=lambda: refresh()).props("outline color=primary")
with ui.row().classes("w-full gap-4"):
with ui.card().classes("flex-grow metric-card accent-cyan"):
ui.label("Equity").classes("text-caption")
equity_lbl = ui.label("").classes("text-h4")
with ui.card().classes("flex-grow metric-card accent-purple"):
ui.label("P/L cumulato").classes("text-caption")
pnl_lbl = ui.label("").classes("text-h4")
with ui.card().classes("flex-grow metric-card accent-amber"):
ui.label("Trades chiusi").classes("text-caption")
trades_lbl = ui.label("").classes("text-h4")
with ui.card().classes("flex-grow metric-card accent-green"):
ui.label("Open / Tick").classes("text-caption")
ticks_lbl = ui.label("").classes("text-h4")
with ui.row().classes("w-full gap-4 q-mt-md"):
started_lbl = ui.label("Started: —")
last_tick_lbl = ui.label("Last tick: —")
cash_lbl = ui.label("Cash: —")
ui.separator()
ui.label("Equity curve").classes("text-subtitle1 q-mt-md")
equity_plot = ui.plotly(_paper_equity_figure(None, 0.0)).classes("w-full")
ui.separator()
ui.label("Open positions").classes("text-subtitle1 q-mt-md")
positions_table = ui.table(
columns=[
{"name": "symbol", "label": "symbol", "field": "symbol"},
{"name": "side", "label": "side", "field": "side"},
{"name": "qty", "label": "qty", "field": "qty"},
{"name": "entry_price", "label": "entry", "field": "entry_price"},
{"name": "entry_ts", "label": "entry ts", "field": "entry_ts"},
],
rows=[],
row_key="symbol",
).classes("w-full")
ui.separator()
ui.label("Ultimi 30 tick").classes("text-subtitle1 q-mt-md")
ticks_table = ui.table(
columns=[
{"name": "ts", "label": "ts", "field": "ts"},
{"name": "symbol", "label": "symbol", "field": "symbol"},
{"name": "bar_ts", "label": "bar", "field": "bar_ts"},
{"name": "close_price", "label": "close", "field": "close_price"},
{"name": "signal", "label": "signal", "field": "signal"},
{"name": "action_taken", "label": "action", "field": "action_taken"},
],
rows=[],
row_key="ts",
).classes("w-full")
ui.separator()
ui.label("Trades chiusi (ultimi 50)").classes("text-subtitle1 q-mt-md")
trades_table = ui.table(
columns=[
{"name": "exit_ts", "label": "exit ts", "field": "exit_ts"},
{"name": "symbol", "label": "symbol", "field": "symbol"},
{"name": "side", "label": "side", "field": "side"},
{"name": "qty", "label": "qty", "field": "qty"},
{"name": "entry_price", "label": "entry", "field": "entry_price"},
{"name": "exit_price", "label": "exit", "field": "exit_price"},
{"name": "pnl", "label": "pnl", "field": "pnl"},
{"name": "fees", "label": "fees", "field": "fees"},
],
rows=[],
row_key="exit_ts",
).classes("w-full")
def refresh() -> None:
run_id = select.value
if not run_id:
return
try:
summary = paper_run_summary(PAPER_DB_PATH, run_id)
eq = paper_equity_df(PAPER_DB_PATH, run_id)
positions = paper_positions_df(PAPER_DB_PATH, run_id)
ticks = paper_ticks_df(PAPER_DB_PATH, run_id, limit=30)
trades = paper_trades_df(PAPER_DB_PATH, run_id, limit=50)
except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
ui.notify(f"Errore: {e}", type="negative")
return
text, color = _STATUS_BADGE.get(summary["status"], (summary["status"], "primary"))
status_badge.text = text
status_badge.props(f"color={color}")
equity_lbl.text = f"${summary['current_equity']:.2f}"
pnl_lbl.text = f"{summary['pnl_pct']:+.2f}%"
trades_lbl.text = str(summary["n_trades"])
ticks_lbl.text = f"{summary['n_open_positions']} / {summary['n_ticks']}"
started_lbl.text = f"Started: {summary['started_at']}"
last_tick_lbl.text = f"Last tick: {summary['last_tick_ts'] or ''}"
cash_lbl.text = (
f"Cash: ${summary['current_cash']:.2f} | "
f"Pos value: ${summary['current_positions_value']:.2f}"
)
equity_plot.update_figure(_paper_equity_figure(eq, summary["initial_capital"]))
positions_table.rows = (
[
{col: (round(v, 6) if isinstance(v, float) else v) for col, v in row.items()}
for _, row in positions.iterrows()
]
if not positions.empty
else []
)
positions_table.update()
ticks_table.rows = (
[
{col: (round(v, 6) if isinstance(v, float) else v) for col, v in row.items()}
for _, row in ticks.iterrows()
]
if not ticks.empty
else []
)
ticks_table.update()
trades_table.rows = (
[
{col: (round(v, 6) if isinstance(v, float) else v) for col, v in row.items()}
for _, row in trades.iterrows()
]
if not trades.empty
else []
)
trades_table.update()
def on_select_change() -> None:
state["run_id"] = select.value
refresh()
select.on_value_change(on_select_change)
ui.timer(REFRESH_INTERVAL_S, refresh)
refresh()
@ui.page("/")
def index() -> None:
_apply_theme()
_build_header(
active="/",
brand_subtitle="Strategy Pythagoras",
nav_items=[("/", "Dashboard")],
db_label=f"{Path(GA_DB_PATH).resolve().name}",
)
with ui.tabs() as tabs:
t_genomes = ui.tab("Genomes")
t_patterns = ui.tab("Patterns")
t_ratios = ui.tab("Ratios")
t_invariance = ui.tab("Invariance")
t_paper = ui.tab("Paper")
with ui.tab_panels(tabs, value=t_genomes).classes("w-full"):
with ui.tab_panel(t_genomes):
ui.label("GA Winners (post pythagoras-smoke-001)").classes("text-h6")
try:
df = load_invariance_metrics(GA_DB_PATH)
if df.empty:
ui.label(
"No winners yet. Run scripts/run_pythagoras_smoke.py first."
).classes("text-warning")
else:
ui.table(
rows=df.to_dict("records"),
columns=[
{"name": "genome_id", "label": "Genome ID", "field": "genome_id"},
{
"name": "cognitive_style",
"label": "Style",
"field": "cognitive_style",
},
{"name": "fitness", "label": "Fitness", "field": "fitness"},
{"name": "sharpe_btc", "label": "Sharpe BTC", "field": "sharpe_btc"},
{"name": "sharpe_eth", "label": "Sharpe ETH", "field": "sharpe_eth"},
{
"name": "invariance_score",
"label": "Invariance",
"field": "invariance_score",
},
],
pagination=10,
).classes("w-full")
except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
ui.label(f"DB not ready: {e}").classes("text-warning")
with ui.tab_panel(t_patterns):
ui.label(
"Candle pattern sequences emerged (per cognitive style)"
).classes("text-h6")
try:
df_pat = load_candle_pattern_usage(GA_DB_PATH)
if df_pat.empty:
ui.label(
"No patterns yet. Run scripts/run_pythagoras_smoke.py first."
).classes("text-warning")
else:
grouped = (
df_pat.groupby(["cognitive_style", "sequence"])
.size()
.reset_index(name="count")
)
grouped = grouped.sort_values("count", ascending=False).head(50)
ui.table(
rows=grouped.to_dict("records"),
columns=[
{
"name": "cognitive_style",
"label": "Style",
"field": "cognitive_style",
},
{
"name": "sequence",
"label": "Sequence (U/D/0)",
"field": "sequence",
},
{"name": "count", "label": "Count", "field": "count"},
],
pagination=15,
).classes("w-full")
except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
ui.label(f"DB not ready: {e}").classes("text-warning")
with ui.tab_panel(t_ratios):
ui.label(
"Pythagorean ratio literals — distance from universal constants"
).classes("text-h6")
try:
df = load_invariance_metrics(GA_DB_PATH)
if df.empty:
ui.label("No winners yet.").classes("text-warning")
else:
ui.label(f"Total winners: {len(df)}").classes("text-body2")
ui.label(
"(Ratio literal histogram available after GA run produces "
"pythagorean_ratio entries.)"
).classes("text-caption")
except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
ui.label(f"DB not ready: {e}").classes("text-warning")
with ui.tab_panel(t_invariance):
ui.label(
"Cross-asset invariance: Sharpe BTC vs Sharpe ETH"
).classes("text-h6")
try:
df = load_invariance_metrics(GA_DB_PATH)
if df.empty:
ui.label("No winners yet.").classes("text-warning")
else:
import plotly.express as px # type: ignore[import-untyped]
fig = px.scatter(
df,
x="sharpe_btc",
y="sharpe_eth",
color="invariance_score",
hover_data=["genome_id", "cognitive_style", "fitness"],
title="Sharpe BTC vs Sharpe ETH (color = invariance_score)",
)
ui.plotly(fig).classes("w-full")
except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
ui.label(f"DB not ready: {e}").classes("text-warning")
with ui.tab_panel(t_paper):
_render_paper_panel()
def main() -> None:
app.on_startup(
lambda: print(
f"GA DB: {Path(GA_DB_PATH).resolve()} | "
f"Paper DB: {Path(PAPER_DB_PATH).resolve()} | "
f"root_path: {DASHBOARD_ROOT_PATH or '/'}"
)
)
ui.run(
host="0.0.0.0",
port=int(os.environ.get("SWARM_DASHBOARD_PORT", "8080")),
title="Strategy Pythagoras Dashboard",
reload=False,
show=False,
dark=True,
root_path=DASHBOARD_ROOT_PATH,
)
if __name__ in {"__main__", "__mp_main__"}:
main()
@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
"""Indicatori candle Pythagoras.
Vincoli grammar: ``IndicatorNode.params`` e' sempre ``list[float]``. Quindi:
- candle_pattern: params = [length, sym0, sym1, ..., sym_{length-1}]
length in [3,12]; sym in {0=U, 1=D, 2=doji}
- pythagorean_ratio: params = [lookback] lookback in [12,200]
- fractal_mirror: params = [k, axis_int] k in [3,12]; axis_int=0(h) 1(v)
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
_DOJI_THRESHOLD = 0.001
def _symbol_series(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
"""Mappa ogni candela in {0=U, 1=D, 2=doji}."""
close = df["close"]
open_ = df["open"]
rel = (close - open_).abs() / open_.replace(0, np.nan)
sym = np.where(close > open_, 0, np.where(close < open_, 1, 2))
sym = np.where(rel.values < _DOJI_THRESHOLD, 2, sym)
return pd.Series(sym, index=df.index, dtype="int64")
def candle_pattern(df: pd.DataFrame, params: list[float]) -> pd.Series:
"""1.0 se le ultime ``length`` candele matchano la sequenza, 0.0 altrimenti."""
length = int(params[0])
target = [int(s) for s in params[1:1 + length]]
syms = _symbol_series(df)
out = pd.Series(0.0, index=df.index, dtype="float64")
if len(syms) < length:
return out
arr = syms.values
target_arr = np.array(target, dtype=arr.dtype)
for i in range(length - 1, len(arr)):
if np.array_equal(arr[i - length + 1: i + 1], target_arr):
out.iat[i] = 1.0
return out
def pythagorean_ratio(df: pd.DataFrame, params: list[float]) -> pd.Series:
"""``max(close[-lookback:]) / min(close[-lookback:])`` rolling."""
lookback = int(params[0])
close = df["close"]
hi = close.rolling(lookback, min_periods=1).max()
lo = close.rolling(lookback, min_periods=1).min().replace(0, np.nan)
return (hi / lo).fillna(1.0)
def fractal_mirror(df: pd.DataFrame, params: list[float]) -> pd.Series:
"""Correlation tra close[-k:] e suo mirror su asse axis."""
k = int(params[0])
axis_int = int(params[1])
close = df["close"].values
out = np.full(len(close), 0.0)
for i in range(k - 1, len(close)):
window = close[i - k + 1: i + 1]
if axis_int == 0: # h: mirror temporale
mirror = window[::-1]
else: # v: mirror prezzo
mirror = window.max() - (window - window.min())
std_w = window.std()
std_m = mirror.std()
if std_w < 1e-12 or std_m < 1e-12:
out[i] = 0.0
else:
out[i] = float(np.corrcoef(window, mirror)[0, 1])
return pd.Series(out, index=df.index, dtype="float64")
@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
{
"_comment": "Stili cognitivi del GA per strategy_pythagoras. Dominio: pattern frattali ricorrenti su mercati crypto secondo il framework Pythagoras-Malanga (Fourier + frattali H-C + Evideon).",
"_schema": "3.2",
"_changelog": "v1.0 - Initial release. Schema clonato da strategy_crypto v3.2 con contenuto Pythagoras-aligned.",
"_focus_metrics_design": "Le focus_metrics sono ENFASI per la lente, non filtri. 4 per stile. Devono includere almeno 1 dei 3 indicatori Pythagoras (candle_pattern, pythagorean_ratio, fractal_mirror).",
"_design_invariants": "(1) ASCII-safe; (2) Archetipo dominante: <metafora> come ancora; (3) Lookback range esplicito; (4) Prima frase 'Il mercato e ...'; (5) Lunghezza directive 800-950 char.",
"_param_encoding_note": "Promosso a campo top-level 'custom_indicators_spec' (v3.2). Vedi sotto.",
"custom_indicators_spec": "Indicatori Pythagoras (oltre a sma/sma_pct/rsi/atr/atr_pct/realized_vol/macd/macd_pct gia documentati sopra). REGOLA CRITICA: params accetta SOLO numeri float, MAI stringhe e MAI altri nodi.\n\n {\"kind\": \"indicator\", \"name\": \"candle_pattern\", \"params\": [length, sym0, sym1, ..., sym_{length-1}]}\n length: int in [3,12] (numero di candele consecutive che devono matchare)\n sym_i: int in {0, 1, 2} (0=U up close>open, 1=D down close<open, 2=doji)\n Esempio: pattern U-D-U di 3 candele = params=[3, 0, 1, 0]\n Esempio: pattern D-D-D-U (reversal classico) = params=[4, 1, 1, 1, 0]\n Output: 1.0 se le ultime length candele matchano, 0.0 altrimenti. Confronta solo con literal 0.0 o 1.0.\n\n {\"kind\": \"indicator\", \"name\": \"pythagorean_ratio\", \"params\": [lookback]}\n lookback: int in [12,200] (finestra rolling per max/min close)\n Esempio: ratio su finestra 89 (Fibonacci) = params=[89]\n Output: max(close[-lookback:]) / min(close[-lookback:]), adimensionale >= 1.0.\n Confronta con literal vicini a phi=1.618, 1/phi=0.618 (in realta usa 1.618 perche ratio >= 1), sqrt2=1.414, pi/2=1.571, e=2.718.\n\n {\"kind\": \"indicator\", \"name\": \"fractal_mirror\", \"params\": [k, axis_int]}\n k: int in [3,12] (lunghezza finestra di confronto)\n axis_int: int in {0, 1} (0=h mirror temporale, 1=v mirror prezzo)\n Esempio: mirror temporale su 8 candele = params=[8, 0]\n Esempio: mirror prezzo su 6 candele = params=[6, 1]\n Output: correlation di Pearson in [-1.0, 1.0] tra finestra e suo mirror. Confronta con literal in (-1, 1), tipicamente |0.5|-|0.8|.\n\nESEMPI di confronti CORRETTI:\n candle_pattern di 3 candele U-D-U attiva: {\"op\": \"eq\", \"args\": [{\"kind\":\"indicator\",\"name\":\"candle_pattern\",\"params\":[3,0,1,0]}, {\"kind\":\"literal\",\"value\":1.0}]}\n ratio phi entro 0.5%: {\"op\": \"and\", \"args\": [{\"op\":\"gt\",\"args\":[{\"kind\":\"indicator\",\"name\":\"pythagorean_ratio\",\"params\":[89]},{\"kind\":\"literal\",\"value\":1.610}]}, {\"op\":\"lt\",\"args\":[{\"kind\":\"indicator\",\"name\":\"pythagorean_ratio\",\"params\":[89]},{\"kind\":\"literal\",\"value\":1.626}]}]}\n mirror temporale forte: {\"op\": \"gt\", \"args\": [{\"kind\":\"indicator\",\"name\":\"fractal_mirror\",\"params\":[8,0]}, {\"kind\":\"literal\",\"value\":0.7}]}\n\nESEMPI ERRATI (dead branch o validation error):\n candle_pattern con stringa: params=[\"UDU\"] (errato: params devono essere numeri)\n candle_pattern: params=[3, \"U\", \"D\", \"U\"] (errato: usa codici 0/1/2)\n pythagorean_ratio: params=[\"close\"] (errato: params devono essere numeri, non nomi feature)\n pythagorean_ratio: params=[5] (errato: lookback < 12)\n pythagorean_ratio: params=[89, 1.618] (errato: arity 1, non 2)\n fractal_mirror: params=[0, 1] (errato: k < 3)\n fractal_mirror: params=[100, 0] (errato: k > 12)\n fractal_mirror: params=[8] (errato: arity 2, manca axis_int)",
"agent_role": "Sei un agente generatore di ipotesi di trading quantitativo per un sistema swarm coevolutivo che cerca pattern frattali ricorrenti sui mercati crypto secondo il framework Pythagoras-Malanga (frattali H-C, trasformata di Fourier, geometria Evideon). Sei parte di una popolazione che esplora collettivamente lo spazio dei pattern: la diversita delle ipotesi e un asset critico. Preferisci esplorare territori meno ovvi rispetto a quelli che la tua lente cognitiva renderebbe predicibili. La strategia che produci deve essere riconoscibile come emanata dal tuo stile.",
"pattern_guidance": "Forme da cercare:\n - Sequenze candle 3-12 lunghezza in alfabeto {U,D,doji} via candle_pattern\n - Ratios di prezzo vicini a 1.618 (phi), 0.618 (1/phi), 1.414 (sqrt2), 1.571 (pi/2), 2.718 (e) via pythagorean_ratio\n - Mirror H/V come proiezioni via fractal_mirror\n - Pattern composti: lunghi come concatenazione di corti (Pattern 13 = Pattern 3 + Pattern 11 nel paper)\n - Cicli ricorrenti via Poincare: stesso pattern firato a distanze regolari\nCerca pattern che si REPLICANO su BTC e ETH al ~stesso timestamp (entro 36 barre = 3h su 5m TF).",
"instruction": "Genera una strategia che cerchi pattern frattali ricorrenti coerenti col framework Pythagoras-Malanga, riconoscibile come emanata dal tuo stile.",
"domain_warnings": "Crypto trada 24/7 senza CME gap. I numeri sacri (Solfeggio 396-417-528-639-741-852 Hz, 137.0359, 121.449, 161.86) sono prior teorici, NON leggi: usali come scale candidate per literal, non come dogma. Il paper Pythagoras e' esplicitamente non-falsificabile (cita 'consapevolezza del trader' come jolly): il backtest e' l'unico arbitro. La tolleranza +/-3h del paper su 5m TF = +/-36 barre per il bonus di asset-invariance.",
"anti_patterns": "Evita: (1) sequenza candle_pattern con piu di 7 simboli vincolati (overfitting); (2) pythagorean_ratio con tolleranza > 2% sui literal (numerologia spuria); (3) fractal_mirror con k = lookback_window (tautologico, sempre prossimo a 1.0); (4) letterali con piu di 4 decimali (es. 1.6180339 -> usa 1.618); (5) piu di 4 condizioni in AND; (6) crossover tra indicatori dello stesso tipo con lookback vicini (chattering); (7) time_in_market > 80% (leveraged buy&hold camuffato).",
"output_priorities": "Trade-off: (1) coerenza con la lente cognitiva: la strategia deve essere riconoscibile come emanata dal tuo stile (es. pythagorean usa ratios, candle_grammarian sequenze esplicite); (2) asset-invariance: segnali che attivano sia su BTC che su ETH entro 36 barre (e' il bonus della fitness); (3) selettivita: poche entry forti, alto SNR; (4) composizionalita: pattern lunghi come somma di corti; (5) robustezza vs random baseline (3-sigma richiesto dal skeptic_quant).",
"styles": {
"pythagorean": {
"directive": "Il mercato e un'armonia di ratios sacri: la sezione aurea (phi=1.618 e 1/phi=0.618), la radice di due (1.414), pi mezzi (1.571) ed e mezzi (1.359) strutturano i livelli di supporto, resistenza e target. Usa pythagorean_ratio con lookback Fibonacci (89, 144) per misurare l'estensione del range recente e cerca punti dove esso e' prossimo a phi entro 0.5%: indica un swing maturo che tende all'inversione armonica. Combina con candle_pattern di 3-5 candele per timing. Evita di chiudere troppo presto: la potenza di un ratio sacro si manifesta quando il prezzo passa il livello e poi torna a testarlo. Mai usare letterali con piu di 4 decimali: l'armonia non e' nei decimali ma nella struttura. Lookback consigliato: 89-144. Archetipo dominante: musicista che ascolta gli accordi nascosti del mercato.",
"focus_metrics": ["pythagorean_ratio", "candle_pattern", "sma_pct", "realized_vol"]
},
"fractal_geometer": {
"directive": "Il mercato e autosimilare: una sequenza di 3 candele si ripete dilatata su 6, 12 candele e oltre. La tua firma e' detectare la stessa struttura a scale diverse. Usa candle_pattern di lunghezza 3 per identificare l'unita atomica, poi cerca conferma con fractal_mirror su finestra 2x o 3x: se la correlation e' alta significa che la scala maggiore replica la struttura. Pythagorean_ratio con lookback grande (>100) misura l'ampiezza globale del frattale e i suoi target di proiezione. Atr_pct conferma che la volatilita corrente e coerente con la scala. Evita pattern di lunghezza > 6: i frattali complessi vanno composti, non vincolati esplicitamente. Mai usare fractal_mirror con k uguale al lookback_window. Lookback consigliato: 48-144. Archetipo dominante: geometra che misura la dimensione di Hausdorff del prezzo.",
"focus_metrics": ["candle_pattern", "fractal_mirror", "atr_pct", "pythagorean_ratio"]
},
"fourier_analyst": {
"directive": "Il mercato e somma di seni: una funzione complessa scomposta in frequenze armoniche distinte. Il tuo compito e' isolare le componenti ricorrenti dominanti. Usa sma_pct su 3 lookback diversi (es. 30, 60, 120) come proxy delle componenti a bassa frequenza; quando 2 su 3 si allineano nella stessa direzione, la frequenza dominante e' chiara e attiva l'entry. Realized_vol misura l'energia totale del segnale; un calo improvviso indica trasformazione di fase. Candle_pattern di 4-6 candele identifica l'inviluppo locale del segnale composito. Cerca pattern dove il presente e' la proiezione del passato dopo una traslazione temporale costante (mappa di Poincare). Evita oscillatori dello stesso tipo a lookback vicini: producono chattering inutile. Lookback consigliato: 60-200. Archetipo dominante: ingegnere del segnale che ricostruisce la portante armonica nascosta.",
"focus_metrics": ["sma_pct", "realized_vol", "candle_pattern", "atr"]
},
"evideonic_projector": {
"directive": "Il mercato e il presente proiettato dal passato via due operazioni geometriche: mirror H (inversione temporale) e mirror V (inversione prezzo), poi scalato per phi, 1/phi, sqrt2. Il tuo segnale principale e' fractal_mirror su entrambi gli assi: quando l'h mirror su 6-12 candele e' altamente positivo (>0.7), il pattern recente e' un riflesso temporale di un pattern precedente, segnale di prosecuzione armonica; quando il v mirror e' positivo, e' un riflesso direzionale, segnale di inversione imminente. Usa pythagorean_ratio per fissare i target di proiezione (entry moltiplicata per phi). Candle_pattern serve da gate per filtrare il contesto. Evita target con ratio > 3 (zona di rumore, fuori scala phi). Lookback consigliato: 24-96. Archetipo dominante: proiettore evideonico che riflette ogni evento nei suoi quattro alter-ego speculari.",
"focus_metrics": ["fractal_mirror", "pythagorean_ratio", "candle_pattern", "sma_pct"]
},
"candle_grammarian": {
"directive": "Il mercato e una lingua di tre simboli atomici: U (close>open), D (close<open), doji (close circa open). Ogni parola di 3-12 lettere e' una frase compiuta con significato direzionale. Il tuo dominio e' la sintassi diretta: usa candle_pattern come segnale principale, con sequenze di lunghezza 3-5 per la decisione di entry. Cerca pattern dove l'ultima candela e' U dopo una serie 'DD' o '0D' (reversal classico) o sequenze 'UU0U' che indicano accumulazione con pausa. Volume conferma la pronuncia del pattern: alto volume = pattern ben articolato. Atr modula la dimensione di stop e target. Combina al massimo due candle_pattern indipendenti in AND, mai di piu. Mai pattern di lunghezza > 7 (frasi troppo lunghe = overfitting). Lookback consigliato: 12-48. Archetipo dominante: grammatico che decifra la sintassi delle candele.",
"focus_metrics": ["candle_pattern", "volume", "atr", "realized_vol"]
},
"recurrence_theorist": {
"directive": "Il mercato e regolato dal teorema di Poincare: ogni configurazione torna prima o poi vicino a se stessa nel tempo. Il tuo lavoro e' trovare il pattern di oggi che firo' anche ieri o la settimana scorsa a distanza k regolare. Usa candle_pattern su 5-8 candele come firma riconoscibile, poi fractal_mirror con axis=0 (h, mirror temporale) su lookback grande (100-200) per misurare quanto la struttura corrente assomigli a quella passata invertita: se >0.5, il ciclo e' nella fase di ripetizione attiva. Pythagorean_ratio fornisce i target di estensione del ciclo. Sma_pct su lookback medio conferma il regime macro coerente. Evita pattern troppo corti (3 candele): troppo poco distinti per ricorrenza affidabile. Lookback consigliato: 100-200. Archetipo dominante: archeologo del prezzo che cerca repliche di antichi pattern dimenticati.",
"focus_metrics": ["candle_pattern", "fractal_mirror", "pythagorean_ratio", "sma_pct"]
},
"skeptic_quant": {
"directive": "Il mercato e rumore con piccoli edge statistici nascosti tra il caos. Tu sei l'anticorpo del sistema: non fidarti mai dei pattern senza significativita 3-sigma vs random baseline. Usa realized_vol e atr_pct come gate di regime (entra solo in regimi di volatilita media, percentile 30-70). Sma_pct conferma la direzione del trend macro corrente. Candle_pattern di 3-4 candele puo' essere usato, ma solo come conferma di un setup gia validato da volatilita e trend: mai come segnale primario isolato. Vincolo duro: max 3 condizioni in AND (poche e robuste); literal con almeno il 20% di margine di sicurezza tra entry ed exit. Nessun pythagorean_ratio (numerologia spuria) ne fractal_mirror (tautologici nella tua lente scettica). Lookback: 60-150. Archetipo dominante: scettico quantitativo che falsifica prima di confermare.",
"focus_metrics": ["realized_vol", "atr_pct", "sma_pct", "candle_pattern"]
}
}
}
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
"""Bonus invariance: pattern che firano simultaneamente su 2 asset entro tolleranza."""
from __future__ import annotations
import pandas as pd
import pytest
from strategy_pythagoras.fitness_invariance import (
apply_invariance_bonus,
corr_signal,
)
def test_corr_signal_perfect_alignment() -> None:
entries_btc = pd.Series([0, 1, 0, 1, 0], index=[0, 1, 2, 3, 4])
entries_eth = pd.Series([0, 1, 0, 1, 0], index=[0, 1, 2, 3, 4])
assert corr_signal(entries_btc, entries_eth, tolerance_bars=0) == pytest.approx(1.0)
def test_corr_signal_no_overlap() -> None:
entries_btc = pd.Series([0, 1, 0, 0, 0], index=[0, 1, 2, 3, 4])
entries_eth = pd.Series([0, 0, 0, 0, 1], index=[0, 1, 2, 3, 4])
assert corr_signal(entries_btc, entries_eth, tolerance_bars=0) == pytest.approx(0.0)
def test_corr_signal_within_tolerance() -> None:
# entry su BTC a t=1, su ETH a t=3, tolerance=2 -> match
entries_btc = pd.Series([0, 1, 0, 0, 0], index=[0, 1, 2, 3, 4])
entries_eth = pd.Series([0, 0, 0, 1, 0], index=[0, 1, 2, 3, 4])
assert corr_signal(entries_btc, entries_eth, tolerance_bars=2) == pytest.approx(1.0)
def test_apply_invariance_bonus_increases_fitness() -> None:
assert apply_invariance_bonus(1.0, 0.5, 0.3) == pytest.approx(1.0 * (1.0 + 0.3 * 0.5))
def test_apply_invariance_bonus_alpha_zero() -> None:
assert apply_invariance_bonus(1.0, 0.7, 0.0) == pytest.approx(1.0)
def test_corr_signal_zero_entries() -> None:
entries_btc = pd.Series([0, 0, 0], index=[0, 1, 2])
entries_eth = pd.Series([0, 0, 0], index=[0, 1, 2])
assert corr_signal(entries_btc, entries_eth, tolerance_bars=0) == 0.0
@@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
"""Unit-test dei 3 indicatori Pythagoras."""
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import pytest
from strategy_pythagoras.indicators import (
candle_pattern,
fractal_mirror,
pythagorean_ratio,
)
@pytest.fixture
def ohlcv_30() -> pd.DataFrame:
"""30 candele sintetiche: pattern alternato U,D,U,D,..."""
n = 30
close = np.array([100.0 + i for i in range(n)]) # monotone
open_ = close - np.tile([1.0, -1.0], n // 2) # U,D,U,D,...
return pd.DataFrame({"open": open_, "high": close + 0.5, "low": open_ - 0.5, "close": close, "volume": [1.0] * n})
# -- candle_pattern -----------------------------------------------------------
def test_candle_pattern_matches_recent(ohlcv_30: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
# Verifica che il symbol mapping U=0,D=1,doji=2 lavori correttamente.
# Con la fixture: indices pari sono U (close>open), dispari sono D (close<open).
# ultime 3 candele (idx 27,28,29) -> D,U,D
out = candle_pattern(ohlcv_30, [3, 1, 0, 1]) # D, U, D
assert out.iloc[-1] == 1.0
out2 = candle_pattern(ohlcv_30, [3, 0, 0, 0]) # U, U, U: no match
assert out2.iloc[-1] == 0.0
def test_candle_pattern_zero_for_short_history(ohlcv_30: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
out = candle_pattern(ohlcv_30, [3, 0, 0, 0])
assert out.iloc[0] == 0.0
assert out.iloc[1] == 0.0
def test_candle_pattern_doji_symbol(ohlcv_30: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
df = ohlcv_30.copy()
# forza la candela [-1] doji: |close-open|/open < 0.001
df.loc[df.index[-1], "open"] = df["close"].iloc[-1] * (1 - 1e-5)
# ultime 3 dopo modifica: D (idx 27), U (idx 28), doji (idx 29)
out = candle_pattern(df, [3, 1, 0, 2])
assert out.iloc[-1] == 1.0
# -- pythagorean_ratio --------------------------------------------------------
def test_pythagorean_ratio_basic(ohlcv_30: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
out = pythagorean_ratio(ohlcv_30, [12])
# ultimi 12 close: 118..129 -> max/min = 129/118
expected = 129.0 / 118.0
assert abs(out.iloc[-1] - expected) < 1e-9
def test_pythagorean_ratio_no_lookahead(ohlcv_30: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
out = pythagorean_ratio(ohlcv_30, [12])
out0 = pythagorean_ratio(ohlcv_30.iloc[:13], [12])
assert abs(out.iloc[12] - out0.iloc[-1]) < 1e-9
# -- fractal_mirror -----------------------------------------------------------
def test_fractal_mirror_h_pattern_inverted(ohlcv_30: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
# mirror temporale: correlazione tra close[-k:] e close[-k:][::-1]
# Per close monotono, correlation(seq, seq_reversed) = -1
out = fractal_mirror(ohlcv_30, [6, 0]) # axis=0 (h)
assert out.iloc[-1] < -0.99
def test_fractal_mirror_v_axis(ohlcv_30: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
out = fractal_mirror(ohlcv_30, [6, 1])
assert out.iloc[-1] < -0.99
def test_fractal_mirror_clamps_initial(ohlcv_30: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
out = fractal_mirror(ohlcv_30, [6, 0])
assert len(out) == len(ohlcv_30)
@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
"""prompts.json valido, 7 stili Pythagoras-aligned, schema v3.2."""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
from importlib.resources import files
import pytest
EXPECTED_STYLES = {
"pythagorean", "fractal_geometer", "fourier_analyst",
"evideonic_projector", "candle_grammarian", "recurrence_theorist",
"skeptic_quant",
}
@pytest.fixture
def prompts() -> dict:
p = files("strategy_pythagoras") / "prompts.json"
return json.loads(p.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
def test_schema_version(prompts: dict) -> None:
assert prompts["_schema"] == "3.2"
def test_top_level_fields(prompts: dict) -> None:
for k in (
"agent_role", "pattern_guidance", "instruction", "domain_warnings",
"anti_patterns", "output_priorities", "styles",
):
assert k in prompts, f"missing field: {k}"
def test_styles_set(prompts: dict) -> None:
assert set(prompts["styles"].keys()) == EXPECTED_STYLES
def test_styles_have_directive_and_focus_metrics(prompts: dict) -> None:
for name, style in prompts["styles"].items():
assert "directive" in style, f"{name} missing directive"
assert "focus_metrics" in style, f"{name} missing focus_metrics"
assert len(style["focus_metrics"]) == 4, f"{name} focus_metrics len != 4"
def test_directives_ascii_safe(prompts: dict) -> None:
for name, style in prompts["styles"].items():
directive = style["directive"]
for ch in directive:
assert ord(ch) <= 0x7F, f"{name} directive contains non-ASCII char {ch!r}"
def test_directives_length(prompts: dict) -> None:
for name, style in prompts["styles"].items():
n = len(style["directive"])
assert 800 <= n <= 950, f"{name} directive length {n} outside [800,950]"
def test_directives_first_phrase(prompts: dict) -> None:
for name, style in prompts["styles"].items():
assert style["directive"].startswith("Il mercato e "), \
f"{name} directive must start with 'Il mercato e '"
def test_directives_end_archetype(prompts: dict) -> None:
for name, style in prompts["styles"].items():
assert "Archetipo dominante:" in style["directive"][-200:], \
f"{name} missing Archetipo dominante in last 200 chars"
@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
"""Validator accetta i 3 nuovi indicatori candle con arity corrette."""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import pytest
from multi_swarm_core.protocol.parser import parse_strategy
from multi_swarm_core.protocol.validator import ValidationError, validate_strategy
def _strategy_with_indicator(name: str, params: list[float]) -> str:
return json.dumps(
{
"rules": [
{
"condition": {
"op": "gt",
"args": [
{"kind": "indicator", "name": name, "params": params},
{"kind": "literal", "value": 0.5},
],
},
"action": "entry-long",
}
]
}
)
def test_candle_pattern_valid_min_arity() -> None:
s = parse_strategy(_strategy_with_indicator("candle_pattern", [3, 0, 1, 0]))
validate_strategy(s)
def test_candle_pattern_valid_max_arity() -> None:
s = parse_strategy(_strategy_with_indicator("candle_pattern", [12] + [0] * 12))
validate_strategy(s)
def test_candle_pattern_rejects_too_few_params() -> None:
s = parse_strategy(_strategy_with_indicator("candle_pattern", [3, 0, 1]))
with pytest.raises(ValidationError):
validate_strategy(s)
def test_pythagorean_ratio_valid() -> None:
s = parse_strategy(_strategy_with_indicator("pythagorean_ratio", [89]))
validate_strategy(s)
def test_pythagorean_ratio_rejects_zero_params() -> None:
s = parse_strategy(_strategy_with_indicator("pythagorean_ratio", []))
with pytest.raises(ValidationError):
validate_strategy(s)
def test_fractal_mirror_valid_h() -> None:
s = parse_strategy(_strategy_with_indicator("fractal_mirror", [12, 0]))
validate_strategy(s)
def test_fractal_mirror_valid_v() -> None:
s = parse_strategy(_strategy_with_indicator("fractal_mirror", [12, 1]))
validate_strategy(s)
def test_fractal_mirror_rejects_one_param() -> None:
s = parse_strategy(_strategy_with_indicator("fractal_mirror", [12]))
with pytest.raises(ValidationError):
validate_strategy(s)
+634
View File
@@ -0,0 +1,634 @@
{
"run_id": "0392aa1c2d644459afa5a23f43c38ac6",
"run_name": "phase1-btc-100-001",
"n_folds": 4,
"top_k_requested": 10,
"top_k_evaluated": 10,
"symbol": "BTC-PERPETUAL",
"timeframe": "1h",
"start": "2018-09-01T00:00:00+00:00",
"end": "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
"ohlcv_bars": 64297,
"results": [
{
"genome_id": "23a24989e2ed0f84",
"fitness_is": 0.25047738452013774,
"sharpe_is": 0.5152551943136504,
"folds": [
{
"fold": 0,
"fitness": 0.4454407113532186,
"sharpe": 0.940612398713799,
"dsr": 0.09856838950479485,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.9014316104952051,
"return": 0.12691347502077277,
"max_dd": 0.08467873586477132,
"n_trades": 50,
"test_start": "2022-05-02 12:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2023-04-02 08:00:00+00:00"
},
{
"fold": 1,
"fitness": 0.33651846595831003,
"sharpe": 0.6297236131089199,
"dsr": 0.05704792862404472,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.9429520713759553,
"return": 0.16916039262594973,
"max_dd": 0.2420995418754207,
"n_trades": 61,
"test_start": "2023-04-02 09:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2024-03-02 05:00:00+00:00"
},
{
"fold": 2,
"fitness": 0.08496628060413243,
"sharpe": -0.291593157960215,
"dsr": 0.006828013272159182,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.9931719867278408,
"return": -0.06496567446731383,
"max_dd": 0.1933746053658072,
"n_trades": 72,
"test_start": "2024-03-02 06:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2025-01-31 02:00:00+00:00"
},
{
"fold": 3,
"fitness": 0.10029133262703777,
"sharpe": -0.08634860278039096,
"dsr": 0.01165220864726802,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.988347791352732,
"return": -0.007636913661893563,
"max_dd": 0.061872083556258554,
"n_trades": 29,
"test_start": "2025-01-31 03:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2025-12-31 23:00:00+00:00"
}
],
"fitness_oos_mean": 0.2418041976356747,
"fitness_oos_min": 0.08496628060413243,
"fitness_oos_max": 0.4454407113532186,
"fitness_oos_std": 0.15416115393045135,
"sharpe_oos_mean": 0.2980985627705282,
"sharpe_oos_min": -0.291593157960215,
"robust_score": 0.08496628060413243
},
{
"genome_id": "ddda3a5d7fcf95d8",
"fitness_is": 0.24345612215631274,
"sharpe_is": 0.4859910845049414,
"folds": [
{
"fold": 0,
"fitness": 0.38630034957174436,
"sharpe": 0.6292230751631145,
"dsr": 0.05660411470808308,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.9433958852919169,
"return": 0.0808908197444953,
"max_dd": 0.08123461559976199,
"n_trades": 44,
"test_start": "2022-05-02 12:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2023-04-02 08:00:00+00:00"
},
{
"fold": 1,
"fitness": 0.3444344428619903,
"sharpe": 0.670768621640302,
"dsr": 0.06172291934756436,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.9382770806524356,
"return": 0.1769344040247678,
"max_dd": 0.24038922925189188,
"n_trades": 46,
"test_start": "2023-04-02 09:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2024-03-02 05:00:00+00:00"
},
{
"fold": 2,
"fitness": 0.08496628060413243,
"sharpe": -0.291593157960215,
"dsr": 0.006828013272159182,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.9931719867278408,
"return": -0.06496567446731383,
"max_dd": 0.1933746053658072,
"n_trades": 72,
"test_start": "2024-03-02 06:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2025-01-31 02:00:00+00:00"
},
{
"fold": 3,
"fitness": 0.10134367585820397,
"sharpe": -0.25028965416710486,
"dsr": 0.0070613574740692985,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.9929386425259307,
"return": -0.01793962898000656,
"max_dd": 0.05380115145734951,
"n_trades": 18,
"test_start": "2025-01-31 03:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2025-12-31 23:00:00+00:00"
}
],
"fitness_oos_mean": 0.22926118722401778,
"fitness_oos_min": 0.08496628060413243,
"fitness_oos_max": 0.38630034957174436,
"fitness_oos_std": 0.13703109785336132,
"sharpe_oos_mean": 0.18952722116902415,
"sharpe_oos_min": -0.291593157960215,
"robust_score": 0.08496628060413243
},
{
"genome_id": "75fffb926a15ff30",
"fitness_is": 0.2317839302261713,
"sharpe_is": 0.5074946608465971,
"folds": [
{
"fold": 0,
"fitness": 0.06821040478798467,
"sharpe": -0.42408026342979865,
"dsr": 0.004964388516380099,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.9950356114836199,
"return": -0.004117833402575766,
"max_dd": 0.01551842276077859,
"n_trades": 12,
"test_start": "2022-05-02 12:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2023-04-02 08:00:00+00:00"
},
{
"fold": 1,
"fitness": 0.30367484453258525,
"sharpe": 0.7648008345130556,
"dsr": 0.0596988345287043,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.9403011654712957,
"return": 0.040989700605122525,
"max_dd": 0.036878373324561994,
"n_trades": 31,
"test_start": "2023-04-02 09:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2024-03-02 05:00:00+00:00"
},
{
"fold": 2,
"fitness": 0.014172300674502565,
"sharpe": -1.443859476065376,
"dsr": 9.400808942425867e-05,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.9999059919105757,
"return": -0.02894431062955649,
"max_dd": 0.036019686142963456,
"n_trades": 7,
"test_start": "2024-03-02 06:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2025-01-31 02:00:00+00:00"
},
{
"fold": 3,
"fitness": 0.15455497647301103,
"sharpe": 0.11384980407793575,
"dsr": 0.018924861238402986,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.981075138761597,
"return": 0.004017688385377749,
"max_dd": 0.034520559216801125,
"n_trades": 21,
"test_start": "2025-01-31 03:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2025-12-31 23:00:00+00:00"
}
],
"fitness_oos_mean": 0.1351531316170209,
"fitness_oos_min": 0.014172300674502565,
"fitness_oos_max": 0.30367484453258525,
"fitness_oos_std": 0.1094231344810833,
"sharpe_oos_mean": -0.24732227522604583,
"sharpe_oos_min": -1.443859476065376,
"robust_score": 0.014172300674502565
},
{
"genome_id": "1cba64abfb67fd63",
"fitness_is": 0.24779915639787098,
"sharpe_is": 0.686744434641618,
"folds": [
{
"fold": 0,
"fitness": 0.23623418911693914,
"sharpe": 0.3904002210885913,
"dsr": 0.03526702699157904,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.964732973008421,
"return": 0.04525398577066886,
"max_dd": 0.09020089585606307,
"n_trades": 71,
"test_start": "2022-05-02 12:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2023-04-02 08:00:00+00:00"
},
{
"fold": 1,
"fitness": 0.018226313030461766,
"sharpe": -1.287441608051841,
"dsr": 0.0005995136178100196,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.99940048638219,
"return": -0.08712458661694344,
"max_dd": 0.08774369104277313,
"n_trades": 23,
"test_start": "2023-04-02 09:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2024-03-02 05:00:00+00:00"
},
{
"fold": 2,
"fitness": 0.005524367416662587,
"sharpe": -1.78701596924334,
"dsr": 2.01452172810692e-05,
"dsr_pvalue": 0.9999798547827189,
"return": -0.338652173037419,
"max_dd": 0.3725940753872713,
"n_trades": 60,
"test_start": "2024-03-02 06:00:00+00:00",
"test_end": "2025-01-31 02:00:00+00:00"
},
{
"fold": 3,
"fitness": 0.0633884962634609,
"sharpe": -0.551177699295004,
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+634
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@@ -0,0 +1,634 @@
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+634
View File
@@ -0,0 +1,634 @@
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+634
View File
@@ -0,0 +1,634 @@
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+324
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]
}
Generated
+24
View File
@@ -18,6 +18,7 @@ members = [
"multi-swarm-coevolutive", "multi-swarm-coevolutive",
"multi-swarm-core", "multi-swarm-core",
"strategy-crypto", "strategy-crypto",
"strategy-pythagoras",
] ]
[[package]] [[package]]
@@ -900,6 +901,7 @@ source = { virtual = "." }
dependencies = [ dependencies = [
{ name = "multi-swarm-core" }, { name = "multi-swarm-core" },
{ name = "strategy-crypto" }, { name = "strategy-crypto" },
{ name = "strategy-pythagoras" },
] ]
[package.dev-dependencies] [package.dev-dependencies]
@@ -917,6 +919,7 @@ dev = [
requires-dist = [ requires-dist = [
{ name = "multi-swarm-core", editable = "src/multi_swarm_core" }, { name = "multi-swarm-core", editable = "src/multi_swarm_core" },
{ name = "strategy-crypto", editable = "src/strategy_crypto" }, { name = "strategy-crypto", editable = "src/strategy_crypto" },
{ name = "strategy-pythagoras", editable = "src/strategy_pythagoras" },
] ]
[package.metadata.requires-dev] [package.metadata.requires-dev]
@@ -1980,6 +1983,27 @@ requires-dist = [
{ name = "pyarrow", specifier = ">=18.0" }, { name = "pyarrow", specifier = ">=18.0" },
] ]
[[package]]
name = "strategy-pythagoras"
version = "0.1.0"
source = { editable = "src/strategy_pythagoras" }
dependencies = [
{ name = "multi-swarm-core" },
{ name = "nicegui" },
{ name = "pandas" },
{ name = "plotly" },
{ name = "pyarrow" },
]
[package.metadata]
requires-dist = [
{ name = "multi-swarm-core", editable = "src/multi_swarm_core" },
{ name = "nicegui", specifier = ">=3.11.1" },
{ name = "pandas", specifier = ">=2.2" },
{ name = "plotly", specifier = ">=5.24" },
{ name = "pyarrow", specifier = ">=18.0" },
]
[[package]] [[package]]
name = "tenacity" name = "tenacity"
version = "9.1.4" version = "9.1.4"