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Adriano d3662f6098 feat(adversarial): time_in_market_too_high HIGH (>80% always-in-market)
Simmetrico opposto di flat_too_long: penalizza strategie LONG/SHORT su
piu' dell'80% delle bar. Una sempre-in-market e' leveraged B&H camuffato,
esposto a funding cumulato (perp ogni 8h), tail risk eventi notturni e
nessuna opportunity-cost flexibility. Sweet spot fitness positiva: 5-80%
time in market.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 23:54:46 +02:00

435 lines
14 KiB
Python

import json
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import pytest
from multi_swarm.agents.adversarial import (
AdversarialAgent,
AdversarialReport,
Severity,
)
from multi_swarm.backtest.engine import BacktestResult
from multi_swarm.backtest.orders import Side, Trade
from multi_swarm.protocol.parser import parse_strategy
@pytest.fixture
def ohlcv() -> pd.DataFrame:
idx = pd.date_range("2024-01-01", periods=500, freq="1h", tz="UTC")
close = 100 + np.cumsum(np.random.RandomState(0).normal(0.0, 1.0, 500))
return pd.DataFrame(
{
"open": close,
"high": close + 0.5,
"low": close - 0.5,
"close": close,
"volume": 1.0,
},
index=idx,
)
def test_degenerate_always_long_flagged(ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
src = json.dumps(
{
"rules": [
{
"condition": {
"op": "gt",
"args": [
{"kind": "feature", "name": "close"},
{"kind": "literal", "value": -1e9},
],
},
"action": "entry-long",
}
]
}
)
ast = parse_strategy(src)
agent = AdversarialAgent()
report = agent.review(ast, ohlcv)
assert isinstance(report, AdversarialReport)
assert any(f.name == "degenerate" and f.severity == Severity.HIGH for f in report.findings)
def test_no_findings_on_reasonable_strategy(ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
src = json.dumps(
{
"rules": [
{
"condition": {
"op": "gt",
"args": [
{"kind": "indicator", "name": "rsi", "params": [14]},
{"kind": "literal", "value": 70.0},
],
},
"action": "entry-short",
},
{
"condition": {
"op": "lt",
"args": [
{"kind": "indicator", "name": "rsi", "params": [14]},
{"kind": "literal", "value": 30.0},
],
},
"action": "entry-long",
},
]
}
)
ast = parse_strategy(src)
agent = AdversarialAgent()
report = agent.review(ast, ohlcv)
high_findings = [f for f in report.findings if f.severity == Severity.HIGH]
assert len(high_findings) == 0
def test_zero_trade_strategy_flagged(ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
src = json.dumps(
{
"rules": [
{
"condition": {
"op": "gt",
"args": [
{"kind": "feature", "name": "close"},
{"kind": "literal", "value": 1e9},
],
},
"action": "entry-long",
}
]
}
)
ast = parse_strategy(src)
agent = AdversarialAgent()
report = agent.review(ast, ohlcv)
assert any(f.name == "no_trades" for f in report.findings)
# AST minimale valido (parser-acceptable). Usato nei test che monkeypatchano
# compile_strategy/BacktestEngine.run: il contenuto della strategia e'
# irrilevante perche' il signal/result viene iniettato.
_MINIMAL_STRATEGY_SRC = json.dumps(
{
"rules": [
{
"condition": {
"op": "gt",
"args": [
{"kind": "feature", "name": "close"},
{"kind": "literal", "value": 0.0},
],
},
"action": "entry-long",
}
]
}
)
def _make_trade(
entry_ts: pd.Timestamp,
exit_ts: pd.Timestamp,
entry_price: float,
exit_price: float,
side: Side = Side.LONG,
fees_bp: float = 5.0,
) -> Trade:
return Trade(
entry_ts=entry_ts.to_pydatetime() if hasattr(entry_ts, "to_pydatetime") else entry_ts,
exit_ts=exit_ts.to_pydatetime() if hasattr(exit_ts, "to_pydatetime") else exit_ts,
side=side,
size=1.0,
entry_price=entry_price,
exit_price=exit_price,
fees_bp=fees_bp,
)
def test_undertrading_under_10_is_high(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch,
ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
"""5 trade su 500 bar -> HIGH undertrading (Phase 1.5: era MEDIUM <5)."""
fake_trades = [
_make_trade(
ohlcv.index[i * 50],
ohlcv.index[i * 50 + 10],
entry_price=100.0,
exit_price=101.0,
)
for i in range(5)
]
fake_signals = pd.Series(
[Side.LONG] * 250 + [Side.FLAT] * 250, index=ohlcv.index, dtype=object
)
def fake_run(self, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame, signals: pd.Series) -> BacktestResult: # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return BacktestResult(
equity_curve=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="equity"),
returns=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="returns"),
trades=fake_trades,
)
def fake_compile(strategy): # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return lambda df: fake_signals
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm.agents.adversarial.BacktestEngine.run", fake_run
)
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm.agents.adversarial.compile_strategy", fake_compile
)
src = _MINIMAL_STRATEGY_SRC
ast = parse_strategy(src)
agent = AdversarialAgent()
report = agent.review(ast, ohlcv)
assert any(
f.name == "undertrading" and f.severity == Severity.HIGH
for f in report.findings
)
def test_overtrading_with_tighter_threshold(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch,
ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
"""n_trades > n_bars/20 -> MEDIUM overtrading (Phase 1.5: era /5)."""
# 500 bar / 20 = 25. Forziamo 30 trade.
n = 30
fake_trades = [
_make_trade(
ohlcv.index[i * 10],
ohlcv.index[i * 10 + 5],
entry_price=100.0,
exit_price=100.5,
)
for i in range(n)
]
# Signal alternato per evitare flat_too_long: 50% LONG, 50% FLAT.
fake_signals = pd.Series(
[Side.LONG if i % 2 == 0 else Side.FLAT for i in range(len(ohlcv))],
index=ohlcv.index,
dtype=object,
)
def fake_run(self, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame, signals: pd.Series) -> BacktestResult: # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return BacktestResult(
equity_curve=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="equity"),
returns=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="returns"),
trades=fake_trades,
)
def fake_compile(strategy): # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return lambda df: fake_signals
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm.agents.adversarial.BacktestEngine.run", fake_run
)
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm.agents.adversarial.compile_strategy", fake_compile
)
src = _MINIMAL_STRATEGY_SRC
ast = parse_strategy(src)
agent = AdversarialAgent()
report = agent.review(ast, ohlcv)
assert any(
f.name == "overtrading" and f.severity == Severity.MEDIUM
for f in report.findings
)
def test_flat_too_long_flagged(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch,
ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
"""Signal flat per >95% delle bar -> HIGH flat_too_long."""
n_bars = len(ohlcv)
# 96% flat: 480 FLAT + 20 LONG = 96% flat ratio
n_active = 20
sig_values = [Side.LONG] * n_active + [Side.FLAT] * (n_bars - n_active)
fake_signals = pd.Series(sig_values, index=ohlcv.index, dtype=object)
# 15 trade per evitare undertrading HIGH.
fake_trades = [
_make_trade(
ohlcv.index[i * 30],
ohlcv.index[i * 30 + 1],
entry_price=100.0,
exit_price=101.0,
)
for i in range(15)
]
def fake_run(self, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame, signals: pd.Series) -> BacktestResult: # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return BacktestResult(
equity_curve=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="equity"),
returns=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="returns"),
trades=fake_trades,
)
def fake_compile(strategy): # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return lambda df: fake_signals
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm.agents.adversarial.BacktestEngine.run", fake_run
)
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm.agents.adversarial.compile_strategy", fake_compile
)
src = _MINIMAL_STRATEGY_SRC
ast = parse_strategy(src)
agent = AdversarialAgent()
report = agent.review(ast, ohlcv)
assert any(
f.name == "flat_too_long" and f.severity == Severity.HIGH
for f in report.findings
)
def test_fees_eat_alpha_flagged(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch,
ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
"""gross_pnl > 0 ma fees > 50% del lordo -> HIGH fees_eat_alpha."""
# Costruisco trade con gross piccolo e fees alti via fees_bp esagerato.
# entry=100, exit=100.05, size=1 -> gross=0.05
# fees_bp=200 (2%) su (100+100.05)*1*200/10000 = 4.001 fees per trade
# In aggregato: gross=15*0.05=0.75, fees=15*4.001=60 -> ratio enorme.
n = 15
fake_trades = [
_make_trade(
ohlcv.index[i * 30],
ohlcv.index[i * 30 + 1],
entry_price=100.0,
exit_price=100.05,
fees_bp=200.0,
)
for i in range(n)
]
# Signal misto per evitare flat_too_long. 50% attivo.
fake_signals = pd.Series(
[Side.LONG if i % 2 == 0 else Side.FLAT for i in range(len(ohlcv))],
index=ohlcv.index,
dtype=object,
)
def fake_run(self, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame, signals: pd.Series) -> BacktestResult: # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return BacktestResult(
equity_curve=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="equity"),
returns=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="returns"),
trades=fake_trades,
)
def fake_compile(strategy): # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return lambda df: fake_signals
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm.agents.adversarial.BacktestEngine.run", fake_run
)
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm.agents.adversarial.compile_strategy", fake_compile
)
src = _MINIMAL_STRATEGY_SRC
ast = parse_strategy(src)
agent = AdversarialAgent()
report = agent.review(ast, ohlcv)
assert any(
f.name == "fees_eat_alpha" and f.severity == Severity.HIGH
for f in report.findings
)
def test_time_in_market_too_high_flagged(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch,
ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
"""Signal LONG per >80% delle bar -> HIGH time_in_market_too_high."""
n_bars = len(ohlcv)
# 90% LONG, 10% FLAT iniziali (warmup-like) per evitare degenerate.
n_flat = int(n_bars * 0.10)
sig_values = [Side.FLAT] * n_flat + [Side.LONG] * (n_bars - n_flat)
fake_signals = pd.Series(sig_values, index=ohlcv.index, dtype=object)
# 15 trade per evitare undertrading HIGH.
fake_trades = [
_make_trade(
ohlcv.index[i * 30],
ohlcv.index[i * 30 + 1],
entry_price=100.0,
exit_price=101.0,
)
for i in range(15)
]
def fake_run(self, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame, signals: pd.Series) -> BacktestResult: # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return BacktestResult(
equity_curve=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="equity"),
returns=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="returns"),
trades=fake_trades,
)
def fake_compile(strategy): # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return lambda df: fake_signals
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm.agents.adversarial.BacktestEngine.run", fake_run
)
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm.agents.adversarial.compile_strategy", fake_compile
)
src = _MINIMAL_STRATEGY_SRC
ast = parse_strategy(src)
agent = AdversarialAgent()
report = agent.review(ast, ohlcv)
assert any(
f.name == "time_in_market_too_high" and f.severity == Severity.HIGH
for f in report.findings
)
def test_reasonable_balanced_strategy_not_flagged(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch,
ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
"""Mix ~50% flat, ~25% long, ~25% short: no HIGH sui gate temporali."""
n_bars = len(ohlcv)
# Pattern ciclico: 2 flat, 1 long, 1 short per ogni gruppo da 4 bar.
# Risultato: ~50% FLAT, ~25% LONG, ~25% SHORT. flat_ratio=0.5 < 0.95,
# active_ratio=0.5 < 0.80.
pattern = [Side.FLAT, Side.FLAT, Side.LONG, Side.SHORT]
sig_values = [pattern[i % 4] for i in range(n_bars)]
fake_signals = pd.Series(sig_values, index=ohlcv.index, dtype=object)
# 15 trade per evitare undertrading HIGH.
fake_trades = [
_make_trade(
ohlcv.index[i * 30],
ohlcv.index[i * 30 + 1],
entry_price=100.0,
exit_price=101.0,
)
for i in range(15)
]
def fake_run(self, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame, signals: pd.Series) -> BacktestResult: # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return BacktestResult(
equity_curve=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="equity"),
returns=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="returns"),
trades=fake_trades,
)
def fake_compile(strategy): # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
return lambda df: fake_signals
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm.agents.adversarial.BacktestEngine.run", fake_run
)
monkeypatch.setattr(
"multi_swarm.agents.adversarial.compile_strategy", fake_compile
)
src = _MINIMAL_STRATEGY_SRC
ast = parse_strategy(src)
agent = AdversarialAgent()
report = agent.review(ast, ohlcv)
# I due gate temporali non devono triggerare.
names = [f.name for f in report.findings]
assert "flat_too_long" not in names
assert "time_in_market_too_high" not in names