Files
Multi_Swarm_Coevolutive/scripts/run_paper_trading.py
T
Adriano Dal Pastro 23b7273e71 feat(paper): ETH a tick 5m + tooling per-year/per-tick analysis
scripts/run_paper_trading.py: AssetConfig ETH ora usa timeframe="5m" invece
del default 1h. Il winner c04dff7086 e' stato trovato dal GA su dati 5m
e a 1h la strategia perde:
- ETH @ 5m (native): +359.50% cum 7y, 77% winrate, max DD/yr 19%
- ETH @ 1h (precedente): -33.03% cum 7y, 67% winrate, max DD 74%
BTC resta a 1h (winner 238e4812 native a 1h, +104% 7y, Sharpe 2+ in 3 anni).

Nuovi script di analisi:
- scripts/yearly_strategies.py: breakdown per anno (2019-2025) di 4
  strategie su tick di discovery (trade/winrate/return/maxDD/Sharpe).
- scripts/multi_tick_strategies.py: confronto cross-tick (5m/15m/1h)
  per i 2 winner correnti. Documenta la divergenza tick-paper di ETH.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 22:10:38 +00:00

206 lines
8.0 KiB
Python

"""Paper-trading runner Phase 3 — forward-test virtuale BTC + ETH.
Loop infinito (o limitato via --max-ticks) che ogni ``--poll-seconds``:
1. fetch OHLCV 1h ultime ~500 barre via Cerbero
2. per ogni strategia: compile + esegui ultimo bar
3. apply segnale al portfolio multi-asset
4. snapshot equity in DB
I bar 1h chiudono al minuto :00. Il loop riconosce un "nuovo bar chiuso"
confrontando l'ultimo timestamp del DataFrame con quello dell'iterazione
precedente. Tick consecutivi su stesso bar = hold (no double-trade).
Esempio:
uv run python scripts/run_paper_trading.py \
--name phase3-papertrade-001 \
--initial-capital 1000 \
--max-ticks 336 # 2 settimane * 24 ore
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import importlib.resources
import time
from dataclasses import dataclass
from datetime import UTC, datetime, timedelta
from pathlib import Path
from multi_swarm_core.cerbero.client import CerberoClient
from multi_swarm_core.config import load_settings
from multi_swarm_core.data.cerbero_ohlcv import CerberoOHLCVLoader, OHLCVRequest
from strategy_crypto.backend import PaperExecutor, PaperRepository, Portfolio
PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
def _default_strategies_dir() -> Path:
"""Cartella JSON shippata col package strategy_crypto."""
return Path(str(importlib.resources.files("strategy_crypto") / "strategies"))
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class AssetConfig:
symbol: str # es. "BTC-PERPETUAL"
strategy_file: Path
exchange: str = "deribit"
timeframe: str = "1h"
def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
p = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Paper-trading runner Phase 3")
p.add_argument("--name", default="phase3-papertrade-001")
p.add_argument("--initial-capital", type=float, default=1000.0)
p.add_argument("--fees-bp", type=float, default=5.0)
p.add_argument("--poll-seconds", type=int, default=300, help="Polling interval (5min default)")
p.add_argument("--max-ticks", type=int, default=0, help="0 = infinito; per smoke test usa 1")
p.add_argument("--lookback-bars", type=int, default=500, help="Quante bar fetchare per indicatori")
p.add_argument(
"--strategies-dir",
default=str(_default_strategies_dir()),
help="Cartella contenente btc_*.json e eth_*.json (default: package strategy_crypto/strategies)",
)
return p.parse_args()
def load_assets(strategies_dir: Path) -> list[AssetConfig]:
btc_files = sorted(strategies_dir.glob("btc_*.json"))
eth_files = sorted(strategies_dir.glob("eth_*.json"))
if not btc_files or not eth_files:
raise FileNotFoundError(
f"Expected btc_*.json and eth_*.json in {strategies_dir}"
)
# ETH winner c04dff7086 e' tunato su 5m: a 1h la strategia perde (cum_ret -33% 7y).
# BTC winner 238e4812 e' tunato su 1h: tick native = paper tick.
return [
AssetConfig(symbol="BTC-PERPETUAL", strategy_file=btc_files[0], timeframe="1h"),
AssetConfig(symbol="ETH-PERPETUAL", strategy_file=eth_files[0], timeframe="5m"),
]
def main() -> None:
args = parse_args()
settings = load_settings()
token = (
settings.cerbero_mainnet_token.get_secret_value()
if settings.cerbero_mainnet_token
else settings.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value()
)
cerbero = CerberoClient(
base_url=settings.cerbero_base_url,
token=token,
bot_tag=settings.cerbero_bot_tag,
)
loader = CerberoOHLCVLoader(client=cerbero, cache_dir=settings.series_dir)
assets = load_assets(Path(args.strategies_dir))
executors: list[PaperExecutor] = [
PaperExecutor(strategy_json_path=a.strategy_file, symbol=a.symbol) for a in assets
]
print(f"Loaded {len(assets)} strategies:")
for a, ex in zip(assets, executors, strict=True):
print(f" {a.symbol}: {a.strategy_file.name} -> {len(ex._strategy.rules)} rules")
portfolio = Portfolio(
initial_capital=args.initial_capital,
fees_bp=args.fees_bp,
n_sleeves=len(assets),
)
repo = PaperRepository(settings.strategy_crypto_db_path)
repo.init_schema()
config = {
"assets": [
{"symbol": a.symbol, "strategy": a.strategy_file.name, "exchange": a.exchange}
for a in assets
],
"fees_bp": args.fees_bp,
"poll_seconds": args.poll_seconds,
"lookback_bars": args.lookback_bars,
}
run_id = repo.create_run(
name=args.name, initial_capital=args.initial_capital, config=config
)
print(f"Paper run started: {run_id} ({args.name})")
print(f" initial_capital=${args.initial_capital:.2f}, sleeve=${portfolio.sleeve_capital:.2f}")
tick_count = 0
last_bars_seen: dict[str, datetime] = {}
try:
while args.max_ticks == 0 or tick_count < args.max_ticks:
now = datetime.now(UTC)
last_prices: dict[str, float] = {}
for asset, executor in zip(assets, executors, strict=True):
# fetch OHLCV most recent lookback bars
end = now.replace(minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0)
start = end - timedelta(hours=args.lookback_bars + 1)
req = OHLCVRequest(
symbol=asset.symbol,
timeframe=asset.timeframe,
start=start,
end=end,
exchange=asset.exchange,
)
# bypass cache for live data
try:
ohlcv = loader._fetch(req) # noqa: SLF001
except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
print(f"[{now.isoformat()}] {asset.symbol} fetch FAIL: {e}")
continue
if len(ohlcv) < 10:
print(f"[{now.isoformat()}] {asset.symbol} too few bars ({len(ohlcv)})")
continue
bar_ts = ohlcv.index[-1]
last_bar_dt = bar_ts.to_pydatetime() if hasattr(bar_ts, "to_pydatetime") else bar_ts
# skip se barra gia' processata in questo tick
if last_bars_seen.get(asset.symbol) == last_bar_dt:
last_prices[asset.symbol] = float(ohlcv["close"].iloc[-1])
continue
last_bars_seen[asset.symbol] = last_bar_dt
result = executor.execute_tick(portfolio, ohlcv, now)
repo.save_tick(run_id, result)
last_prices[asset.symbol] = result.close_price
if result.action_taken != "hold":
pnl_str = (
f"pnl=${result.trade.net_pnl:+.2f}" if result.trade else ""
)
print(
f"[{now.isoformat()}] {asset.symbol} bar={last_bar_dt} "
f"close={result.close_price:.2f} signal={result.signal.value} "
f"action={result.action_taken} {pnl_str}"
)
repo.sync_open_positions(run_id, portfolio)
eq, pos_val = portfolio.equity(last_prices)
repo.save_equity_snapshot(run_id, now, eq, portfolio.cash, pos_val)
tick_count += 1
print(
f"[{now.isoformat()}] tick={tick_count} "
f"equity=${eq:.2f} cash=${portfolio.cash:.2f} pos_val=${pos_val:.2f} "
f"open={list(portfolio.positions.keys())}"
)
if args.max_ticks > 0 and tick_count >= args.max_ticks:
break
time.sleep(args.poll_seconds)
repo.stop_run(run_id, status="completed")
except KeyboardInterrupt:
print("\nInterrupted by user")
repo.stop_run(run_id, status="interrupted")
except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
print(f"Run failed: {e}")
repo.stop_run(run_id, status="failed")
raise
print(f"Paper run {run_id} stopped after {tick_count} ticks")
print(f"Final equity: ${portfolio.equity({})[0]:.2f}")
print(f"Trades closed: {len(portfolio.closed_trades)}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()