Files
Multi_Swarm_Coevolutive/scripts/run_phase1.py
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Adriano 242724ba05 feat(phase-2.6): Walk-Forward Validation + min-trades filter parametrico
Due fondamenta scientifiche per filtrare overfit e lucky-shot:

1) undertrading_threshold parametrico (era hardcoded 10):
   - AdversarialAgent.__init__(undertrading_threshold=10)
   - CLI flag --undertrading-threshold
   - Aggiunto a hard_kill_findings v2 default
     {"no_trades", "degenerate", "undertrading"}: ora un genome con 1 trade
     fortunato (es. genome 80be6bcc-1trade-fit-0.21 di fitness-v2-combo) viene
     killato anche sotto fitness v2 soft-kill.
   - Test parametric: undertrading_threshold=25 → 15 trade triggerano HIGH.

2) Walk-Forward Validation (WFA):
   - RunConfig.wfa_train_split (None=off, 0<x<1=on) + wfa_top_k=5
   - run_phase1: split ohlcv in train/test; GA usa solo train; a fine GA
     i top_k genomi (by fitness in-sample, fitness>0) vengono rivalutati
     sul test_ohlcv via falsification+adversarial+compute_fitness.
   - Schema migration: evaluations + fitness_oos, sharpe_oos, return_oos,
     max_dd_oos, n_trades_oos (ALTER TABLE con try/except per DB pre-2.6).
   - Repository.update_evaluation_oos helper per popolare colonne OOS.
   - CLI flags --wfa-train-split, --wfa-top-k.
   - Test integration: train_split=0.7 → fitness_oos popolato per top_k.

Motivazione: la fase 2.5 ha generato 17 run con fitness fino a 0.36 + DSR
positivo, ma OOS test su 7 anni mostra che flat-ablation top crolla -37%
mentre fitness-v2 top regge (+143%). WFA in-run permette ora di vedere
direttamente il degradation train→test senza eseguire backtest separati,
rendendo possibile filtrare overfit early durante l'ottimizzazione.

Tests (+2 → 193 totale):
- test_undertrading_threshold_parametric
- test_e2e_wfa_populates_fitness_oos

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-12 17:31:22 +02:00

155 lines
5.3 KiB
Python

from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
from datetime import datetime
from multi_swarm.cerbero.client import CerberoClient
from multi_swarm.config import load_settings
from multi_swarm.data.cerbero_ohlcv import CerberoOHLCVLoader, OHLCVRequest
from multi_swarm.genome.hypothesis import ModelTier
from multi_swarm.llm.client import LLMClient
from multi_swarm.orchestrator.run import RunConfig, run_phase1
def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
p = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Multi-Swarm Phase 1 runner")
p.add_argument("--name", default="phase1-spike-001")
p.add_argument("--population-size", type=int, default=20)
p.add_argument("--n-generations", type=int, default=10)
p.add_argument("--elite-k", type=int, default=2)
p.add_argument("--tournament-k", type=int, default=3)
p.add_argument("--p-crossover", type=float, default=0.5)
p.add_argument("--seed", type=int, default=42)
p.add_argument(
"--exchange",
default="deribit",
choices=["deribit", "bybit", "hyperliquid"],
)
p.add_argument("--symbol", default="BTC-PERPETUAL")
p.add_argument("--timeframe", default="1h")
p.add_argument("--start", default="2024-01-01T00:00:00+00:00")
p.add_argument("--end", default="2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00")
p.add_argument("--fees-bp", type=float, default=5.0)
p.add_argument("--n-trials-dsr", type=int, default=50)
p.add_argument(
"--prompt-mutation-weight",
type=float,
default=0.0,
help="Phase 2.5: probabilità (0-1) che la mutazione invochi LLM mutator tier B",
)
p.add_argument(
"--fees-eat-alpha-threshold",
type=float,
default=0.5,
help="Adversarial gate: kill se fees/gross_pnl > soglia (default 0.5, ablation 0.7)",
)
p.add_argument(
"--flat-too-long-threshold",
type=float,
default=0.95,
help="Adversarial gate: kill se signal flat > soglia delle bar (default 0.95, ablation 0.98)",
)
p.add_argument(
"--undertrading-threshold",
type=int,
default=10,
help="Adversarial: kill se n_trades < soglia (default 10, bump per filtrare lucky-shot)",
)
p.add_argument(
"--fitness-v2",
action="store_true",
help=(
"Attiva fitness v2: solo {no_trades, degenerate, undertrading} azzerano; "
"gli altri HIGH applicano soft penalty multiplicativa"
),
)
p.add_argument(
"--fitness-soft-penalty",
type=float,
default=0.4,
help="v2: fattore soft penalty per HIGH non-hard (default 0.4 → 1 HIGH → 0.71x)",
)
p.add_argument(
"--wfa-train-split",
type=float,
default=None,
help="Walk-forward: frazione bar usate per training (es. 0.7 = primi 70%% in-sample, ultimi 30%% OOS)",
)
p.add_argument(
"--wfa-top-k",
type=int,
default=5,
help="Walk-forward: quanti top genomi rivalutare OOS (default 5)",
)
return p.parse_args()
def main() -> None:
args = parse_args()
settings = load_settings()
token = (
settings.cerbero_mainnet_token.get_secret_value()
if settings.cerbero_mainnet_token
else settings.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value()
)
cerbero = CerberoClient(
base_url=settings.cerbero_base_url,
token=token,
bot_tag=settings.cerbero_bot_tag,
)
loader = CerberoOHLCVLoader(client=cerbero, cache_dir=settings.series_dir)
req = OHLCVRequest(
symbol=args.symbol,
timeframe=args.timeframe,
start=datetime.fromisoformat(args.start),
end=datetime.fromisoformat(args.end),
exchange=args.exchange,
)
ohlcv = loader.load(req)
print(f"OHLCV loaded: {len(ohlcv)} bars from {ohlcv.index[0]} to {ohlcv.index[-1]}")
llm = LLMClient(
openrouter_api_key=settings.openrouter_api_key.get_secret_value(),
model_tier_s=settings.llm_model_tier_s,
model_tier_a=settings.llm_model_tier_a,
model_tier_b=settings.llm_model_tier_b,
model_tier_c=settings.llm_model_tier_c,
model_tier_d=settings.llm_model_tier_d,
openrouter_base_url=settings.openrouter_base_url,
)
cfg = RunConfig(
run_name=args.name,
population_size=args.population_size,
n_generations=args.n_generations,
elite_k=args.elite_k,
tournament_k=args.tournament_k,
p_crossover=args.p_crossover,
seed=args.seed,
model_tier=ModelTier.C,
symbol=args.symbol,
timeframe=args.timeframe,
fees_bp=args.fees_bp,
n_trials_dsr=args.n_trials_dsr,
db_path=settings.db_path,
prompt_mutation_weight=args.prompt_mutation_weight,
fees_eat_alpha_threshold=args.fees_eat_alpha_threshold,
flat_too_long_threshold=args.flat_too_long_threshold,
undertrading_threshold=args.undertrading_threshold,
fitness_hard_kill_findings=(
("no_trades", "degenerate", "undertrading") if args.fitness_v2 else None
),
fitness_adversarial_soft_penalty=args.fitness_soft_penalty,
wfa_train_split=args.wfa_train_split,
wfa_top_k=args.wfa_top_k,
)
run_id = run_phase1(cfg, ohlcv=ohlcv, llm=llm)
print(f"Run completed: {run_id}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()