Multi_Swarm_Coevolutive/scripts/compare_winners.py

"""Confronto per-trade dei 4 winner cross-run (BTC/ETH × 1h/5m).

Per ogni winner: ri-esegue il backtest su 4 fold WFA expanding-window e raccoglie
trade buoni/non buoni, win-rate, avg PnL, return, max DD, Sharpe.
"""
from __future__ import annotations

import argparse
from datetime import datetime

import pandas as pd  # type: ignore[import-untyped]

from multi_swarm_core.agents.hypothesis import _try_parse
from multi_swarm_core.backtest.engine import BacktestEngine
from multi_swarm_core.cerbero.client import CerberoClient
from multi_swarm_core.config import load_settings
from multi_swarm_core.data.cerbero_ohlcv import CerberoOHLCVLoader, OHLCVRequest
from multi_swarm_core.data.splits import expanding_walk_forward
from multi_swarm_core.metrics.basic import max_drawdown, sharpe_ratio, total_return
from multi_swarm_core.persistence.repository import Repository
from multi_swarm_core.protocol.compiler import compile_strategy


# (run_name, genome_id, symbol, timeframe, label)
WINNERS = [
    ("phase1-btc-100-001", "238e481262c1594c", "BTC-PERPETUAL", "1h", "BTC 1h sharpshooter (Gen 7)"),
    ("phase1-btc-100-001", "23a24989e2ed0f84", "BTC-PERPETUAL", "1h", "BTC 1h robust (Gen 0 elite)"),
    ("phase1-eth-100-001", "4b45a72c13acf1d5", "ETH-PERPETUAL", "1h", "ETH 1h best-by-sharpe (killed)"),
    ("phase1-btc-100-5m-001", "f8ca6642adf7e0cd", "BTC-PERPETUAL", "5m", "BTC 5m robust winner"),
    ("phase1-eth-100-5m-001", "c04dff7086bb9588", "ETH-PERPETUAL", "5m", "ETH 5m OOS winner"),
]


def analyze_genome(run_id: str, genome_id: str, symbol: str, timeframe: str, label: str,
                   settings, cerbero, loader) -> None:
    repo = Repository(settings.ga_db_path)
    repo.init_schema()
    evs = [e for e in repo.list_evaluations(run_id) if e["genome_id"] == genome_id]
    if not evs:
        print(f"  no eval for {genome_id} in {run_id}")
        return
    ev = evs[0]
    strat, err = _try_parse(ev.get("raw_text") or "")
    if strat is None:
        print(f"  parse error: {err}")
        return

    req = OHLCVRequest(
        symbol=symbol, timeframe=timeframe,
        start=datetime.fromisoformat("2018-09-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
        end=datetime.fromisoformat("2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
    )
    ohlcv = loader.load(req)
    splits = expanding_walk_forward(ohlcv.index, train_ratio=0.5, n_folds=4)
    engine = BacktestEngine(fees_bp=5.0)

    print(f"\n>>> {label}")
    print(f"    {genome_id} | fit_IS={ev['fitness']:.4f} sharpe_IS={ev['sharpe']:.3f} trades_IS={ev['n_trades']}")
    print(f"    {'fold':<5} {'period':<26} {'trades':>7} {'wins':>5} {'losses':>7} {'win%':>6} {'avg_w':>10} {'avg_l':>10} {'ret':>8} {'maxDD':>7} {'sharpe':>7}")

    sum_ret = 0.0
    sum_trades = 0
    sum_wins = 0
    for s in splits:
        test_df = ohlcv.loc[s.test_idx]
        try:
            signal_fn = compile_strategy(strat)
            signals = signal_fn(test_df)
            bt = engine.run(test_df, signals)
        except Exception as e:
            print(f"  fold {s.fold}: error {e}")
            continue

        trades = bt.trades
        n = len(trades)
        wins = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl > 0]
        losses = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl <= 0]
        nw, nl = len(wins), len(losses)
        wr = (nw / n * 100) if n else 0.0
        aw = (sum(wins) / nw) if nw else 0.0
        al = (sum(losses) / nl) if nl else 0.0
        if n > 0:
            notional = float(test_df["close"].iloc[0])
            eq = (bt.equity_curve / notional) + 1.0
            ret = total_return(eq)
            dd = max_drawdown(eq)
            sr = sharpe_ratio(bt.returns, periods_per_year=8760)
        else:
            ret = dd = sr = 0.0
        period = f"{str(s.test_idx[0])[:10]}..{str(s.test_idx[-1])[:10]}"
        print(f"    {s.fold:<5} {period:<26} {n:>7} {nw:>5} {nl:>7} {wr:>5.1f}% {aw:>10.1f} {al:>10.1f} {ret:>7.2%} {dd:>6.2%} {sr:>7.3f}")
        sum_ret += ret
        sum_trades += n
        sum_wins += nw
    overall_wr = (sum_wins / sum_trades * 100) if sum_trades else 0.0
    print(f"    {'='*5} TOTALS:                {sum_trades:>7} {sum_wins:>5} {sum_trades-sum_wins:>7} {overall_wr:>5.1f}%  cum_ret={sum_ret:+.2%}")


def main() -> None:
    settings = load_settings()
    repo = Repository(settings.ga_db_path)
    repo.init_schema()
    name_to_id: dict[str, str] = {}
    for w in WINNERS:
        run_name = w[0]
        if run_name in name_to_id:
            continue
        runs = repo.list_runs()
        for r in runs:
            if r["name"] == run_name:
                name_to_id[run_name] = r["id"]
                break

    token = (
        settings.cerbero_mainnet_token.get_secret_value()
        if settings.cerbero_mainnet_token
        else settings.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value()
    )
    cerbero = CerberoClient(
        base_url=settings.cerbero_base_url,
        token=token,
        bot_tag=settings.cerbero_bot_tag,
    )
    loader = CerberoOHLCVLoader(client=cerbero, cache_dir=settings.series_dir)

    print(f"{'='*120}")
    print(f"PER-TRADE COMPARISON — {len(WINNERS)} winner candidates × 4 folds WFA")
    print(f"{'='*120}")

    for run_name, genome_id, symbol, timeframe, label in WINNERS:
        run_id = name_to_id.get(run_name)
        if not run_id:
            print(f"!!! run not found: {run_name}")
            continue
        analyze_genome(run_id, genome_id, symbol, timeframe, label, settings, cerbero, loader)


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()