{
  "oos_benchmark_buyhold": {"pnl": -0.07, "maxdd": 0.68, "sharpe": 0.22},
  "top_survivors_oos": {
    "agent_04_macd":      {"pnl_A": 0.23, "pnl_B": 0.19, "maxdd": 0.11, "sharpe_min": 0.84, "corr_to_trend": 0.52},
    "agent_06_accel":     {"pnl_A": 0.40, "pnl_B": 0.22, "maxdd": 0.12, "sharpe_min": 0.79, "corr_to_trend": 0.50},
    "agent_23_vol_of_vol":{"pnl_A": 0.30, "pnl_B": 0.32, "maxdd": 0.21, "sharpe_min": 0.69, "corr_to_trend": 0.46},
    "agent_44_obv":       {"pnl_A": 0.22, "pnl_B": 0.20, "maxdd": 0.16, "sharpe_min": 0.60, "corr_to_trend": 0.31}
  },
  "skeptic_regime_luck": "REFUTED x3 - top-5 of ~800 OOS bars supply 67-102% of PnL; drop-10 turns negative; accel COMB final-third Sharpe -1.21; A & B disagree on WHEN it works.",
  "skeptic_trend_redundancy": "REFUTED x4 - Newey-West HAC alpha t-stats +0.92..+1.51 (none > 1.96); corr-to-trend 0.34-0.74, beta 0.45-0.73; residual mean +0.05-0.08/yr = noise. Better-tuned TSMOM, not orthogonal alpha.",
  "skeptic_overfit": "MACD not-refuted (genuine one-axis plateau, OOS Sh 0.84 not train 1.40); ACCEL REFUTED (acceleration term HURTS OOS, LAG knife-edge -63% on -20%); VOV REFUTED (PCTL 0.80->0.60 destroys 73% of OOS Sharpe).",
  "verdict": "52 blind agents, orchestrator scored all on OOS PnL & maxDD. NOTHING new survives. All winners are trend-beta of two up-trending curves; OOS Sharpe ceiling ~0.84 (decayed from train ~1.4); no statistically distinguishable alpha vs TSMOM. Independent BLIND re-confirmation of the project's ~1.3 directional ceiling. macd = least-bad, TP01-class, forward-monitor not deploy."
}
