refactor: riorganizzazione script — Strategy ABC, folder strategies/waste/analysis

- src/strategies/base.py: Strategy ABC con Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats
- src/strategies/indicators.py: keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes, ema, atr, rv, corr
- scripts/strategies/: SQ01-SQ04 (squeeze puro/filtri), ML01 (squeeze+GBM)
- scripts/waste/: W01-W22 script scartati + REF originali
- scripts/analysis/: compare, best_yearly, final_report, paper_status
- CLAUDE.md aggiornato con nuova struttura e tabella strategie

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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2026-05-27 23:01:36 +02:00
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"""SQ04 — Ultimate Squeeze — combinazione incrementale di tutti i filtri.
Testa combinazioni di filtri (antifake, long_sq, timing, cross-asset,
correlation, volume, trend alignment, volatility regime) e classifica
per accuracy.
IN:
- OHLCV DataFrame (primario + secondario)
- Parametri: bb_window, sq_threshold, lista filtri da attivare
OUT:
- BacktestResult per ogni combinazione di filtri
- Classifica globale
Risultati tipici:
BTC 15m antifake+corr: 81.6% acc (ma concentrato 2018)
BTC 15m antifake+vol: 79.7% acc, 1250 trades — robusto
ETH 1h antifake+corr: 80.7% acc (solo 2018)
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, ".")
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
from src.strategies.indicators import (
keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes, ema, rv_annualized, rolling_correlation,
)
from src.data.downloader import load_data
class SqueezeUltimate(Strategy):
name = "SQ04_ultimate"
description = "Ultimate squeeze — tutti i filtri combinabili"
default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
FILTER_PRESETS = {
"antifake+vol": ["antifake", "vol_confirm"],
"antifake+corr": ["antifake", "corr_high"],
"af+long+corr+trend": ["antifake", "long_sq", "corr_high", "trend_align"],
"ALL": ["antifake", "long_sq", "cross", "timing", "corr_high",
"vol_confirm", "trend_align", "low_rv"],
}
def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
**params) -> list[Signal]:
c = df["close"].values
h = df["high"].values
l = df["low"].values
v = df["volume"].values
n = len(c)
asset = params.get("asset", "BTC")
tf = params.get("tf", "15m")
filters = params.get("filters", ["antifake", "vol_confirm"])
kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, 14)
events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr)
secondary = "ETH" if asset == "BTC" else "BTC"
df2 = load_data(secondary, tf)
c2 = df2["close"].values
kcr2 = keltner_ratio(c2, df2["high"].values, df2["low"].values, 14)
ts2 = df2["timestamp"].values
ema_50 = ema(c, 50)
rv_48 = rv_annualized(c, 48)
corr = rolling_correlation(c, c2)
signals = []
for ev in events:
i = ev["idx"]
if i < 1 or i >= n:
continue
first_ret = (c[i] - c[i - 1]) / c[i - 1] if c[i - 1] > 0 else 0
if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
continue
skip = False
for f in filters:
if f == "antifake":
br = h[i] - l[i]
if br > 0:
if c[i] > c[i-1] and (h[i] - c[i]) / br > 0.6:
skip = True
elif c[i] <= c[i-1] and (c[i] - l[i]) / br > 0.6:
skip = True
elif f == "long_sq":
if ev["dur"] < 10:
skip = True
elif f == "timing":
if ts.iloc[i].hour < 4 or ts.iloc[i].hour > 16:
skip = True
elif f == "cross":
i2 = np.searchsorted(ts2, ts.values[i].astype("int64") // 10**6)
i2 = min(i2, len(kcr2) - 1)
if not any(not np.isnan(kcr2[j]) and kcr2[j] < 0.85
for j in range(max(0, i2 - 10), i2 + 1)):
skip = True
elif f == "corr_high":
if np.isnan(corr[i]) or abs(corr[i]) < 0.6:
skip = True
elif f == "vol_confirm":
avg_v = np.mean(v[ev["sq_start"]:i])
if avg_v > 0 and v[i] <= avg_v * 1.3:
skip = True
elif f == "trend_align":
if not np.isnan(ema_50[i]):
if first_ret > 0 and c[i] < ema_50[i]:
skip = True
elif first_ret < 0 and c[i] > ema_50[i]:
skip = True
elif f == "low_rv":
if not np.isnan(rv_48[i]) and rv_48[i] >= 1.5:
skip = True
if skip:
break
if skip:
continue
signals.append(Signal(
idx=i,
direction=1 if first_ret > 0 else -1,
entry_price=c[i - 1],
metadata={"dur": ev["dur"], "filters": filters},
))
return signals
def backtest(self, asset: str, tf: str, hold: int = 3, **params):
params.setdefault("asset", asset)
params.setdefault("tf", tf)
df = load_data(asset, tf)
ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
signals = self.generate_signals(df, ts, **params)
# Usa il backtest della base ma passando i segnali già generati
from src.strategies.base import BacktestResult, YearlyStats, TF_MINUTES
c = df["close"].values
n = len(c)
yearly: dict[int, dict] = {}
capital = float(self.initial_capital)
peak = capital
max_dd = 0.0
total_bars = 0
for sig in signals:
i = sig.idx
if i + hold >= n or i < 1:
continue
entry = sig.entry_price
exit_price = c[min(i + hold - 1, n - 1)]
actual = (exit_price - entry) / entry * sig.direction
net = actual * self.leverage - self.fee_rt * self.leverage
capital += capital * self.position_size * net
capital = max(capital, 10)
if capital > peak: peak = capital
dd = (peak - capital) / peak
max_dd = max(max_dd, dd)
total_bars += hold
year = ts.iloc[i].year
if year not in yearly:
yearly[year] = {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnl": 0.0}
yearly[year]["t"] += 1
if actual > 0: yearly[year]["w"] += 1
yearly[year]["pnl"] += net * self.initial_capital
all_t = sum(d["t"] for d in yearly.values())
all_w = sum(d["w"] for d in yearly.values())
if all_t == 0: return None
yearly_stats = [YearlyStats(y, d["t"], d["w"], d["pnl"]) for y, d in sorted(yearly.items())]
return BacktestResult(
strategy_name=self.name, asset=asset, timeframe=tf, params=params,
trades=all_t, wins=all_w, pnl=sum(d["pnl"] for d in yearly.values()),
capital=capital, initial_capital=self.initial_capital,
max_dd=max_dd * 100, time_in_market_pct=total_bars / n * 100,
avg_trade_duration_h=hold * TF_MINUTES.get(tf, 60) / 60,
years_active=len(yearly), yearly=yearly_stats,
)
def report_all_presets(self):
"""Esegue tutte le combinazioni preset × asset × tf."""
all_results = []
for preset_name, filter_list in self.FILTER_PRESETS.items():
for asset in self.default_assets:
for tf in self.default_timeframes:
r = self.backtest(asset, tf, filters=filter_list)
if r and r.trades >= 20:
r.strategy_name = f"SQ04 {preset_name}"
all_results.append(r)
all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
print(f"\n{'=' * 120}")
print(f" SQ04 ULTIMATE — TUTTI I PRESET")
print(f"{'=' * 120}")
for r in all_results:
r.print_summary()
return all_results
if __name__ == "__main__":
strategy = SqueezeUltimate()
strategy.report_all_presets()