chore(reset): v2.0.0 — storico certificato Deribit mainnet, ripartenza pulita

Reset del progetto su fondamenta verificate dopo la scoperta che l'intera libreria "validata OOS" era artefatto di feed contaminato (print fantasma del feed Cerbero TESTNET + storico Binance/USDT). - Storico ricostruito da Deribit MAINNET (ccxt pubblico, tokenless) e CERTIFICATO (certify_feed.py): BTC/ETH puliti su TUTTA la storia (mediana 2-6 bps vs Coinbase USD), integrita' OHLC + coerenza resample (maxΔ 0.00) + cross-venue OK. Alt esclusi (illiquidi/divergenti: LTC/DOGE 50-82% barre flat; XRP/BNB non certificabili). - Verdetto sul feed pulito: FADE / PAIRS / XS01 / TSM01 morti (ogni portafoglio Sharpe -2.3..-3.0, DD ~40%); solo SH01 e frammenti HONEST con segnale residuo, da ri-validare in isolamento. - Cleanup "restart pulito": strategie, stack live (src/live, src/portfolio, runner/executor, yml, docker), ~100 script ricerca/gate, waste/games/ portfolios, dati non certificati + cache e 60+ diari -> archiviati in Old/ (preservati, non cancellati). Diario consolidato in un unico documento. - Skeleton ricerca tenuto: Strategy ABC + indicatori + src/fractal + src/backtest/engine + load_data; tool dati certificati (rebuild_history, certify_feed, audit_feed, multi_source_check). - Universo dati ATTIVO: solo BTC/ETH (5m/15m/1h); guardrail fisico (load_data su alt -> FileNotFoundError). Esecuzione DISABILITATA, conto flat. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-19 15:16:03 +00:00
parent 8401a280b9
commit 14522262e6
383 changed files with 1971 additions and 779 deletions
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+"""Strategia #3 candidata: time-series momentum / trend (TSMOM).
+Posizione continua decisa a close[i] dai dati passati; fee SOLO sui cambi di
+posizione (poche operazioni su TF alto = fee non letali). Niente look-ahead:
+il rendimento del bar i->i+1 usa la direzione decisa a close[i].
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_lab import ema, get_df, available_assets, FEE_RT  # noqa: E402
+
+LEV = 3.0
+POS = 0.15
+
+
+def simulate_position(sig: np.ndarray, df: pd.DataFrame, fee_rt: float = FEE_RT,
+                      lev: float = LEV, pos: float = POS) -> dict:
+    """sig[i] in {-1,0,1} = direzione tenuta nel bar i->i+1, decisa a close[i].
+    Fee one-way = fee_rt/2 su ogni unita' di variazione posizione."""
+    c = df["close"].values
+    n = len(c)
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    cap = peak = 1000.0
+    max_dd = 0.0
+    cur = 0.0
+    flips = 0
+    bars_in = 0
+    yearly: dict[int, float] = {}
+    for i in range(n - 1):
+        s = sig[i]
+        if not np.isfinite(s):
+            s = 0.0
+        if s != cur:
+            cap -= cap * pos * (fee_rt / 2) * lev * abs(s - cur)
+            flips += abs(s - cur) > 0
+            cur = s
+        pr = (c[i + 1] - c[i]) / c[i]
+        bar_ret = pos * lev * pr * cur
+        cap = max(cap * (1 + bar_ret), 10.0)
+        peak = max(peak, cap); max_dd = max(max_dd, (peak - cap) / peak)
+        if cur != 0:
+            bars_in += 1
+        yr = ts.iloc[i].year
+        yearly[yr] = yearly.get(yr, 0.0) + bar_ret * 100
+    return {
+        "ret": (cap / 1000 - 1) * 100,
+        "dd": max_dd * 100,
+        "flips": flips,
+        "exposure": bars_in / n * 100,
+        "yearly": yearly,
+        "pos_years": sum(1 for v in yearly.values() if v > 0),
+        "n_years": len(yearly),
+    }
+
+
+def tsmom_signal(df, lookback=30, long_only=False):
+    """+1 se close>close[-lookback], -1 (o 0 se long_only) altrimenti."""
+    c = df["close"].values
+    sig = np.zeros(len(c))
+    for i in range(lookback, len(c)):
+        up = c[i] > c[i - lookback]
+        sig[i] = 1.0 if up else (0.0 if long_only else -1.0)
+    return sig
+
+
+def ema_dual_signal(df, fast=20, slow=100, long_only=False):
+    """+1 se EMA_fast>EMA_slow."""
+    c = df["close"].values
+    ef, es = ema(c, fast), ema(c, slow)
+    sig = np.where(ef > es, 1.0, 0.0 if long_only else -1.0)
+    sig[:slow] = 0.0
+    return sig
+
+
+def oos(sig, df, frac=0.30):
+    split = int(len(df) * (1 - frac))
+    s2 = sig.copy(); s2[:split] = 0.0
+    return simulate_position(s2, df)
+
+
+def show(label, df, sig):
+    full = simulate_position(sig, df)
+    o = oos(sig, df)
+    anni = f"{full['pos_years']}/{full['n_years']}"
+    print(f"  {label:<26s}{full['flips']:>6d}{full['ret']:>+9.0f}{o['ret']:>+9.0f}"
+          f"{full['dd']:>6.0f}{full['exposure']:>6.0f}{anni:>8s}")
+    return full, o
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    assets = available_assets()
+    print(f"TSMOM / trend — fee {FEE_RT*100:.2f}% RT, leva3x pos15% | OOS30%")
+    for tf in ["1d", "4h"]:
+        print(f"\n  ###### TF {tf} ######")
+        for a in assets:
+            df = get_df(a, tf)
+            print(f"\n  === {a} {tf} ===  {'Flip':>5s}{'FULL%':>8s}{'OOS%':>8s}{'DD%':>6s}{'Exp%':>6s}{'AnniP':>8s}")
+            show("TSMOM lb30 long/short", df, tsmom_signal(df, 30))
+            show("TSMOM lb30 long-only", df, tsmom_signal(df, 30, long_only=True))
+            show("TSMOM lb90 long/short", df, tsmom_signal(df, 90))
+            show("EMA 20/100 long/short", df, ema_dual_signal(df, 20, 100))
+            show("EMA 20/100 long-only", df, ema_dual_signal(df, 20, 100, long_only=True))