chore(reset): v2.0.0 — storico certificato Deribit mainnet, ripartenza pulita

Reset del progetto su fondamenta verificate dopo la scoperta che l'intera libreria "validata OOS" era artefatto di feed contaminato (print fantasma del feed Cerbero TESTNET + storico Binance/USDT). - Storico ricostruito da Deribit MAINNET (ccxt pubblico, tokenless) e CERTIFICATO (certify_feed.py): BTC/ETH puliti su TUTTA la storia (mediana 2-6 bps vs Coinbase USD), integrita' OHLC + coerenza resample (maxΔ 0.00) + cross-venue OK. Alt esclusi (illiquidi/divergenti: LTC/DOGE 50-82% barre flat; XRP/BNB non certificabili). - Verdetto sul feed pulito: FADE / PAIRS / XS01 / TSM01 morti (ogni portafoglio Sharpe -2.3..-3.0, DD ~40%); solo SH01 e frammenti HONEST con segnale residuo, da ri-validare in isolamento. - Cleanup "restart pulito": strategie, stack live (src/live, src/portfolio, runner/executor, yml, docker), ~100 script ricerca/gate, waste/games/ portfolios, dati non certificati + cache e 60+ diari -> archiviati in Old/ (preservati, non cancellati). Diario consolidato in un unico documento. - Skeleton ricerca tenuto: Strategy ABC + indicatori + src/fractal + src/backtest/engine + load_data; tool dati certificati (rebuild_history, certify_feed, audit_feed, multi_source_check). - Universo dati ATTIVO: solo BTC/ETH (5m/15m/1h); guardrail fisico (load_data su alt -> FileNotFoundError). Esecuzione DISABILITATA, conto flat. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-19 15:16:03 +00:00
parent 8401a280b9
commit 14522262e6
383 changed files with 1971 additions and 779 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
+"""TsmomWorker (TSM01): consenso TSMOM multi-orizzonte risk-gated, ribilancio giornaliero.
+Replica live di tsmom_research.tsmom_sim (horizons 63/126/252, thr 1.0, gross 0.30, SMA100 gate)."""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from src.live.rotation_worker import _panel, _warn_panel_short, FEE_RT
+
+
+class TsmomWorker:
+    def __init__(self, universe, horizons=(63, 126, 252), thr=1.0, gross=0.30,
+                 regime_n=100, tf="1d", capital=1000.0, fee_rt=FEE_RT,
+                 name="TSM01", data_dir=Path("data/portfolio_paper")):
+        self.universe = list(universe)
+        self.horizons = tuple(horizons)
+        self.thr = thr
+        self.gross = gross
+        self.regime_n = regime_n
+        self.tf = tf
+        self.initial_capital = capital
+        self.capital = capital
+        self.fee_rt = fee_rt
+        self.worker_id = f"{name}__{tf}"
+        self.work_dir = Path(data_dir) / self.worker_id
+        self.work_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+        self.status_path = self.work_dir / "status.json"
+        self.trades_path = self.work_dir / "trades.jsonl"
+        self.weights = {a: 0.0 for a in self.universe}
+        self.last_bar_ts = 0
+        self.in_position = False
+        self._panel_warned = False   # dedup WARN panel corto (per episodio, non persistito)
+        self._load()
+
+    def _load(self):
+        if self.status_path.exists():
+            s = json.loads(self.status_path.read_text())
+            self.capital = s.get("capital", self.capital)
+            self.weights = {**{a: 0.0 for a in self.universe}, **s.get("weights", {})}
+            self.last_bar_ts = s.get("last_bar_ts", 0)
+        self.in_position = any(v > 0 for v in self.weights.values())
+
+    def _save(self):
+        self.status_path.write_text(json.dumps({
+            "capital": round(self.capital, 2), "weights": self.weights,
+            "in_position": self.in_position,      # per hourly_report (osservabilita')
+            "last_bar_ts": self.last_bar_ts,
+            "ts": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat()}, indent=2))
+
+    def tick(self, data: dict):
+        need = max(max(self.horizons) + 1, self.regime_n + 1)
+        panel, cols = _panel(data, self.universe)
+        if panel is None or len(panel) < need or "BTC" not in cols:
+            self._panel_warned = _warn_panel_short(
+                self.worker_id, panel, cols, need, self.last_bar_ts, self._panel_warned)
+            return
+        self._panel_warned = False
+        P = panel[cols].values
+        bar_ts = int(panel["timestamp"].iloc[-1])
+        if self.last_bar_ts and bar_ts > self.last_bar_ts:
+            day_ret = P[-1] / P[-2] - 1.0
+            port_r = sum(self.weights.get(cols[k], 0.0) * day_ret[k] for k in range(len(cols)))
+            self.capital = max(self.capital * (1.0 + float(port_r)), 10.0)
+        btc = P[:, cols.index("BTC")]
+        bma = pd.Series(btc).rolling(self.regime_n).mean().values
+        risk_on = btc[-1] > bma[-1] if not np.isnan(bma[-1]) else False
+        score = np.zeros(len(cols))
+        for h in self.horizons:
+            score += np.sign(P[-1] / P[-1 - h] - 1.0)
+        score /= len(self.horizons)
+        chosen = [k for k in range(len(cols)) if score[k] >= self.thr] if risk_on else []
+        nw = {a: 0.0 for a in self.universe}
+        for k in chosen:
+            nw[cols[k]] = self.gross / len(chosen)
+        turnover = sum(abs(nw[a] - self.weights.get(a, 0.0)) for a in self.universe)
+        self.capital -= self.capital * turnover * (self.fee_rt / 2)
+        if turnover > 0:
+            self._log(nw, float(self.capital))
+        self.weights = nw
+        self.last_bar_ts = bar_ts
+        self.in_position = any(v > 0 for v in nw.values())
+        self._save()
+
+    def _log(self, weights, cap):
+        with open(self.trades_path, "a") as f:
+            f.write(json.dumps({"ts": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
+                                "weights": {a: round(w, 4) for a, w in weights.items() if w > 0},
+                                "capital": round(cap, 2)}) + "\n")
+
+    @property
+    def status_summary(self):
+        held = {a: round(w, 3) for a, w in self.weights.items() if w > 0}
+        return f"{self.worker_id}: cap={self.capital:.0f} held={held}"