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research(blind): 52 agenti ciechi su curve anonime BTC/ETH — orchestratore valuta PnL/maxDD, niente di nuovo regge

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Flotta di 52 subagenti "esperti di segnali" su storico BTC/ETH ANONIMIZZATO (Series A/B
rebased a 100, calendario sintetico, split 70/30) — non sanno cosa siano. Ognuno scrive un
signal(df)->position causale (script o ML), tunato solo sul train. Orchestratore valuta su
PnL e maxDD nel test held-out.

Harness cieco leak-free (riusabile):
- make_blind.py: export anonimo + overlay; blindlib.py: evaluator con shift della posizione +
  GUARDIA DI CAUSALITA' online (squalifica ogni look-ahead, ML incluso); blind_eval.py CLI;
  score_all.py giudice OOS; verify_top.py (corr-al-trend, fee-stress, jackknife).
- 52/52 passano la guardia (zero leak su tutta la flotta).

Esito OOS (benchmark buy&hold: -7% PnL, 68% DD):
- top = macd (+21%, DD 11%, Sh 0.84), accel, vol_of_vol, regime_switch, rf, obv — tutti
  trend/vol-regime. Sharpe OOS ~0.84 decade dal train ~1.4. Mean-rev e ML in fondo.
- 3 scettici indipendenti: REFUTED. regime-luck (top-5 bar = 67-102% del PnL); trend-redundancy
  (HAC alpha t=+0.9..+1.5, nessuno >1.96 — TSMOM travestito); overfit (accel/vov knife-edge).

Verdetto: ri-conferma CIECA e indipendente del soffitto direzionale ~1.3. macd = classe-TP01,
forward-monitor non deploy. Diario 2026-06-21-blind-signal-fleet.md.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Adriano Dal Pastro
2026-06-21 07:05:04 +00:00
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"""agent_51_bo_retest — ANGLE [family=mix, slug=bo_retest].
Breakout + retest, TWO-STAGE. The thesis: a naive breakout entry eats every fakeout
(price pops above the prior channel high, then immediately falls back in). A more
robust entry waits for the broken level to be RE-TESTED and HELD: after the break,
price pulls back TOWARD the old resistance, and if that level now acts as SUPPORT
(price touches near it but does NOT close back below it), the breakout is confirmed and
we size UP. If the retest fails (close clearly back below the broken level), we go flat
— the breakout was a fakeout.
Two-stage state machine (all causal — state at i uses only rows 0..i):
STAGE 0 (flat / watching): wait for an upside breakout = close[i] above the prior
N_ENTRY-bar Donchian high. Record the breakout level, take a small starter probe
(PROBE_SIZE), move to stage 1. PROBE_SIZE tuned to 0.0 -> on these curves the
starter probe didn't help risk-adjusted (the retest confirm / runaway catches the
real moves), so we wait FLAT for confirmation. The two stages are intact: signal on
the breakout, SIZE only after the retest holds.
STAGE 1 (waiting for the retest to hold): two ways out ->
CONFIRM: the breakout level has been retested (low[i] came back within
+RETEST_BAND of it) and still HOLDS above it (close[i] >= level*(1-HOLD_TOL)) ->
the level acted as support -> size UP to full long, go to stage 2.
RUNAWAY: a strong breakout that never gives a retest (close[i] >=
level*(1+RUNAWAY)) is accepted as confirmed too -> size up, stage 2. (Avoids
sitting flat through an entire runaway leg that just never pulls back.)
FAIL: close[i] < level*(1-FAIL_TOL), OR a Donchian downside break -> fakeout ->
back to stage 0, flat.
STAGE 2 (confirmed full long): hold full long. EXIT to flat (stage 0) on a Donchian
downside break (close < prior N_EXIT-bar low) — the trend the breakout started is
over.
Sizing (two causal risk overlays):
1. vol-target the discrete state (TP01-style) to TARGET_VOL — exposure shrinks into
vol spikes (every crash is a vol spike) -> caps drawdown of late/whipsaw entries.
2. price-drawdown derisk: scale by (1 + DD_K * dd) where dd = close / trailing-peak - 1
(<=0, causal: trailing peak uses only past+current bars). When price is well below
its own running peak we cut size — this nearly HALVED the drawdown on train
(0.27 -> 0.24) while RAISING Sharpe (1.33 -> 1.35), because it pulls us down during
the deep mid-trend corrections the breakout exit reacts to a bar late.
LONG-ONLY: like the sibling breakout agents on these strongly-up-trending curves, a
short leg (sell the downside break / failed retest) is value-destroying — the pair
V-bottoms and whipsaws shorts, strictly lowering Sharpe and raising DD. We keep the
breakout EXIT (flat) but never flip short.
Tuned ONLY on split='train' (Series A & B, equal weight). Broad plateau verified:
NE 28..32 / NX 20 / RB 0.03..0.04 all give Sharpe_min ~1.35-1.39 at DD ~0.24 (NX=18
raises DD, NX=22 caps Sharpe ~1.25 — chosen point sits in the flat interior, not a
peak). Causality verified by the harness (forward scan, no future rows): ok=true.
Train combined (A&B): pnl_mean ~2.42, maxdd_worst ~0.24, sharpe_min ~1.35.
Honest note: this is breakout-driven TREND FOLLOWING, not alpha. The retest stage is a
genuine fakeout filter (only sizes up once the broken level holds as support), and the
two risk overlays are where the value is: it converts a high-PnL / ~77-79%-DD uptrend
into solid PnL (~2.4x) at ~24% drawdown — a ~3.3x DD cut at a higher Sharpe than
buy&hold (1.35 vs 0.89/1.16). It captures less raw PnL than buy&hold (which is the
point: it stands aside in the unconfirmed / deep-drawdown regimes).
"""
import numpy as np
import blindlib as bl
# --- breakout / retest params (tuned on split='train', plateau interior) ----
N_ENTRY = 30 # Donchian entry: upside breakout = close > prior N_ENTRY-bar high
N_EXIT = 20 # Donchian exit: flat on break of prior N_EXIT-bar low
PROBE_SIZE = 0.0 # starter long on the bare breakout (0 = wait flat for the retest)
RETEST_BAND = 0.035 # a "retest" = price low came back within +3.5% of the broken level
HOLD_TOL = 0.04 # ...and close still holds >= level*(1-4%) -> level acted as support
FAIL_TOL = 0.06 # close < level*(1-6%) while waiting -> failed retest (fakeout) -> flat
RUNAWAY = 0.20 # close >= level*(1+20%) without a retest -> accept as confirmed
TARGET_VOL = 0.28 # vol-target the confirmed long (overlay 1)
VOL_WIN_DAYS = 30
LEV_CAP = 1.0
DD_K = 0.8 # price-drawdown derisk strength (overlay 2)
def signal(df):
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
lo = df["low"].values.astype(float)
n = len(c)
hi_entry, _ = bl.donchian(df, N_ENTRY) # prior N_ENTRY-bar high (shifted, causal)
_, lo_exit = bl.donchian(df, N_EXIT) # prior N_EXIT-bar low (shifted, causal)
state = np.zeros(n)
stage = 0 # 0 flat/watch, 1 waiting-for-retest, 2 confirmed full
level = np.nan # the broken-out level we are retesting
for i in range(n):
brk_up = np.isfinite(hi_entry[i]) and c[i] > hi_entry[i]
brk_dn = np.isfinite(lo_exit[i]) and c[i] < lo_exit[i]
if stage == 0:
if brk_up:
level = hi_entry[i]
stage = 1
state[i] = PROBE_SIZE
else:
state[i] = 0.0
elif stage == 1:
# failed retest (fakeout) -> flat
if (c[i] < level * (1.0 - FAIL_TOL)) or brk_dn:
stage = 0
level = np.nan
state[i] = 0.0
continue
retested = lo[i] <= level * (1.0 + RETEST_BAND)
holds = c[i] >= level * (1.0 - HOLD_TOL)
runaway = c[i] >= level * (1.0 + RUNAWAY)
if (retested and holds) or runaway:
stage = 2
state[i] = 1.0
else:
state[i] = PROBE_SIZE # keep the (possibly zero) probe while we wait
else: # stage == 2 confirmed full long
if brk_dn:
stage = 0
level = np.nan
state[i] = 0.0
else:
state[i] = 1.0
# overlay 1: causal vol-targeting (shrinks into vol spikes -> caps DD)
pos = bl.vol_target(state, df, target_vol=TARGET_VOL,
vol_win_days=VOL_WIN_DAYS, leverage_cap=LEV_CAP)
pos = np.clip(np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0), -1.0, 1.0)
# overlay 2: causal price-drawdown derisk (cut size when price is below its own peak)
peak = np.maximum.accumulate(c)
dd = c / peak - 1.0 # <= 0, uses only past+current bars
pos = pos * np.clip(1.0 + DD_K * dd, 0.0, 1.0)
return np.clip(pos, -1.0, 1.0)