research(intraday): asse intraday/microstruttura — lead più vicino al reale ma NON deployabile
16 agenti su segnali low-turnover intraday (sessione/funding, reversione post-evento, breakout range del giorno prima) su feed certificati 1h/15m, giudice = marginal scorer indurito + fee-sweep. Lab: intra_score.py (wrappa study_marginal a TF scelto + turnover/fee), meta_intra.py (corr-TP01 + per-cut), verify_intra.py (walk-forward + in-sample-null + drop-one + fee-stress). Esito: 10/16 "earns_slot" -> 5 genuinamente ortogonali (corr<0.4). Combo dei 5: Sharpe 1.80, corr 0.17, leak-free, passa walk-forward (+0.30/+0.37 dove l'ortho dava -0.07), pre-2025 uplift +0.28, drop-one e fee-robusto. Sembrava IL lead. 3 scettici: (1) open_drive = ARTEFATTO etichettatura UTC (shift confine 4h -> uplift negativo); prevday_range_breakout REGGE (unico onesto, eseguibile). (2) combo fallisce il null a corr-zero (20-24° pctl: aggiunge meno del rumore), è HEDGE (corr -0.57..-0.80 a Sharpe-TP01) + tail-luck (80% PnL in top-5 giorni delle gambe revert). (3) robust-plateau ma null-pctl 0.20 = diversificazione di stream ortogonale, non timing-alpha; + finzione fee micro-ribilanciamento a $600. Verdetto: niente in live, resta solo TP01. Lead forward-monitor: prevday_range_breakout. Lezioni harness da codificare: test shift-confine-giorno (artefatti calendar), fee discretizzata a piccolo capitale, causality guard nel lab intraday. Diario 2026-06-21-intraday-microstructure.md. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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# 2026-06-21 — Asse intraday/microstruttura: il lead più vicino al reale, ma NON deployabile
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## Perché (utente: "cerchiamo qualcosaltro")
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Direzionale e relative-value su BTC/ETH esauriti (flotte blind + ortho). L'unico asse mai
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sfruttato dopo il reset = il **tempo intraday** (feed certificati 5m/15m/1h; tutto era a 1d).
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Meccanismi diversi da trend e relative-value: bias ora/sessione (perp con funding a 00/08/16 UTC),
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reversione post-evento (vol/volume/gap), breakout del range del giorno prima.
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## Setup
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`scripts/research/intraday/intra_score.py`: wrappa `altlib.study_marginal` a un TF a scelta
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(compone i rendimenti intraday a daily, li valuta col **marginal scorer indurito** = multi-cut +
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edge-in-sample + hedge-vs-alpha) e riporta **turnover + fee-sweep a 0.20% RT**. Il muro: a 0.10% RT
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il churn intraday è morte (un flip orario fa 2152 trade/anno → −8.6 Sharpe netto). Vincolo agli
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agenti: **basso turnover**, l'intraday come informazione (timing/sizing/gating), non HFT.
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## Flotta — 16 agenti
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16 ipotesi low-turnover. Esito grezzo: 16 riportati, **10 "earns_slot"** (di nuovo gonfiato).
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## Diagnosi orchestratore — separare ortogonale vero da trend-beta
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Per corr-a-TP01 (`meta_intra.py`): 2 sono **trend-beta** (close_location 0.81, trend_quality 0.75 —
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Sharpe in-sample alto ma preso in prestito dal trend), 3 **mixed**, **5 genuinamente ortogonali**
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(|corr|<0.4): open_drive (0.13), prevday_range_breakout (0.15), vol_event_revert_15m (−0.1),
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volume_spike_revert (0.14), gap_fill (0.04) — 2 famiglie (breakout-continuation + capitulation-revert),
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mutuamente de-correlate. **Combo dei 5: Sharpe standalone 1.80, corr-TP01 0.17, uplift +0.33/+0.27/
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+0.34/+0.34/+0.53 a OGNI cut** (non solo 2025).
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## Gauntlet deterministico (`verify_intra.py`) — passa TUTTO ciò che uccise le onde precedenti
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- **In-sample pre-2025 Sharpe 1.75; uplift pre-2025-ONLY +0.281** (l'ortho faceva +0.027 = null).
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- **Walk-forward selection** (scegli su solo passato, testa avanti): **+0.303 / +0.368** (l'ortho dava −0.07).
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- **Drop-one robusto** (+0.24..+0.31 pre-2025), **fee-robusto a 0.30% RT**, **leak-free**
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(online-consistency: max_tail_diff = 0.0 su tutti e 5). Sembrava IL lead.
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## Verifica avversariale (3 scettici indipendenti) — il verdetto vero
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1. **Execution/microstruttura:** **open_drive = ARTEFATTO di etichettatura UTC.** Spostando il
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confine del giorno di 4h l'uplift va NEGATIVO (−0.10); togliendo l'ancora UTC (trailing-8h) Sharpe
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0.01; funziona solo a 00:00 UTC, solo alle ore 3 e 7. **Scartare.** `prevday_range_breakout` invece
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**REGGE** (plateau su k, robusto allo shift del confine, fill eseguibili a close) = unico candidato
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onesto, ma la decorrelazione viene tutta dalla gamba SHORT che si appoggia al regime down 2025-26;
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anchor=1 only. **Caveat $600:** il vol-target fa ~8500 ribilanciamenti/anno, 97-98% < $1 di nozionale
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→ la fee proporzionale modellata su trade infinitesimi è **finzione** a $300/gamba (vale anche per TP01).
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2. **Hedge + tail:** **REFUTED.** L'uplift pre-2025 +0.281 sta al **20-24° percentile del null di un
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asset a corr-zero** (mediana null +0.371) — essendo a corr +0.175 (non 0) e bassa vol, **aggiunge
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MENO del rumore scorrelato**. È **hedge** (corr Sharpe-TP01/uplift −0.57..−0.80; TP01-down uplift
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+0.79 vs TP01-up +0.20) e **tail-luck** (le gambe revert: top-5 giorni = 76-83% del PnL, <10
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eventi/anno, front-loaded 2019-21; combo: metà uplift in ~10 giorni).
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3. **Overfit/robustezza:** **ROBUST-PLATEAU** (243-cell joint grid pre-2025 uplift min +0.134/med
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+0.211, 99% celle >+0.15; ogni anno positivo). MA segnala lui stesso il **null-pctl 0.20**: "il
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beneficio è la matematica di diversificazione di uno stream ortogonale a Sharpe 1.75, NON timing-alpha
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specifico-TP01" + storia corta sulle gambe revert + fill modellati vs reali.
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## Verdetto
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**Niente in live.** L'asse intraday ha prodotto il lead **più vicino al reale** di tutta la ricerca,
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ma sotto 3 scettici: **open_drive è artefatto** (UTC-labeling); la combo **fallisce il null a
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corr-zero** (aggiunge meno del rumore), è **hedge-shaped** e **tail-luck**; e lo Sharpe modellato è
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gonfiato dal micro-ribilanciamento sub-dollaro a $600. Lo Sharpe standalone 1.80 NON è affidabile
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(artefatto + coda + finzione di fill). **Resta solo TP01.**
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**Lead reale (forward-monitor, non deploy):** `prevday_range_breakout` — l'unico segnale sopravvissuto
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allo scettico d'esecuzione (breakout del range del giorno prima, eseguibile, leak-free), con caveat
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short-leg/regime-2025. Trattamento = come `dvol_spread` / XS01 / STA05.
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### Lezioni harness da codificare (il vero ritorno)
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1. **Test di shift del confine-giorno**: un effetto "ora/sessione" che inverte spostando l'inizio del
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giorno UTC di poche ore è un artefatto di etichettatura (ha ucciso open_drive). Da aggiungere ai gate
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per ogni segnale calendar/session-based.
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2. **Realismo fee a piccolo capitale**: `eval_weights` con vol-target genera migliaia di ribilanciamenti
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sub-dollaro; a $600 la fee proporzionale su trade infinitesimi è ottimistica. Serve un costo che
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**discretizzi i ribilanciamenti** (min-order + fee fissa) per lo Sharpe netto reale. Vale per TUTTI
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gli sleeve a questo capitale, TP01 incluso.
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3. **Causality guard anche nel lab intraday**: l'online-consistency check (max_tail_diff) va integrato
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in `intra_score` come in blind/ortho (qui fatto a mano).
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File: `scripts/research/intraday/{intra_score,meta_intra,verify_intra}.py`,
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`agents/agent_00..15_*.py`, `intra_leaderboard.json`.
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"""agent_00_hour_of_day_bias — SESSION family, slug=hour_of_day_bias (suggested TF 1h).
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ANGLE: long-flat overlay favoring historically-strong UTC hours. For each bar we hold a
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CAUSAL EXPANDING mean return per hour-of-day; go long when the current hour's bias is
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positive, flat otherwise. Keep turnover LOW by heavily smoothing/persisting the on/off
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decision (a slow EMA of the long-flat mask) so we do NOT flip hourly (fee death ~4000x/yr).
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CAUSALITY: the per-hour bias at bar i uses ONLY returns realized at bars 0..i (an expanding
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accumulator updated AFTER reading), so it is a strictly causal estimate of each hour's edge.
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No full-sample calendar mean is ever used.
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HONEST VERDICT (see notes in the agent report): the hour-of-day effect, when ISOLATED from
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buy&hold drift (a market-neutral long-good/short-bad construction), has ~ZERO gross Sharpe
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pre- and post-2025 -> there is no tradeable calendar alpha. The long-flat overlay only earns
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the asset's own drift (it sits ~98% long after smoothing), which is REDUNDANT trend-beta vs
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TP01 (corr ~0.70) and DILUTES the hold-out. We still implement the literal angle as a
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low-turnover signal and let the hardened judge return its honest verdict.
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"""
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import sys
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
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import altlib as al # noqa: E402
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# Tunables (kept conservative for LOW turnover).
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_MIN_OBS = 50 # need >=50 past observations of an hour before trusting its bias
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_EMA_SPAN = 336 # ~14 days of 1h bars -> smooths the on/off mask to ~24 flips/yr
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_VOL_TARGET = 0.20
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_VOL_WIN_D = 30
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_LEV_CAP = 1.0 # cap at 1.0 -> a pure long-flat overlay, never levered/short
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def _causal_hour_bias(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
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"""Expanding mean return per UTC hour-of-day, strictly causal.
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bias[i] = average of past realized returns that occurred on the same hour-of-day as
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bar i, using bars 0..i (the accumulator is updated AFTER bias[i] is read so the very
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first MIN_OBS samples per hour stay NaN). This is the causal analogue of the
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full-sample 'mean return by hour' table -- it never peeks at the future.
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"""
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c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
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r = al.simple_returns(c)
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hour = pd.to_datetime(df["datetime"], utc=True).dt.hour.values
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n = len(df)
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bias = np.full(n, np.nan)
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csum = np.zeros(24)
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ccnt = np.zeros(24)
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for i in range(n):
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h = hour[i]
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if ccnt[h] > _MIN_OBS:
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bias[i] = csum[h] / ccnt[h]
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csum[h] += r[i]
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ccnt[h] += 1
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return bias
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def target(df):
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"""Continuous long-flat position in [0,1] (vol-targeted) favoring strong UTC hours."""
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bias = _causal_hour_bias(df)
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long_flat = np.where(np.nan_to_num(bias) > 0.0, 1.0, 0.0) # literal angle: hold good hours
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smooth = al.ema(long_flat, _EMA_SPAN) # persist -> kill turnover
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pos = al.vol_target(smooth, df, _VOL_TARGET, _VOL_WIN_D, _LEV_CAP)
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return np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0)
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
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d = al.get(a, "1h")
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ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
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print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
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"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
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"""agent_01_session_overlay — SESSION OVERLAY on the daily TSMOM trend (TF=1h).
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ANGLE [family=session, slug=session_overlay]: be in the daily trend position only during
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the strongest session (Asia/EU/US blocks); reduce/flat in the weak session. Causal
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session-return estimates. MINIMIZE flips.
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STRUCTURAL BASIS (measured, both BTC & ETH): crypto drift is concentrated in EU+US hours;
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Asia hours (UTC 0-7) carry ~0 mean return but full variance -> bad reward/risk. So holding
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the trend through dead Asia hours adds vol without return. The overlay down-weights the
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session that is causally the weakest.
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FEE DISCIPLINE: a naive in/out-per-session flip churns ~700x/yr = fee-death. We keep
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turnover bounded by (a) a SLOW trend (TP01 horizons 30/90/180d -> monthly flips), and (b)
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modulating exposure across only 2 levels with a session weight that itself changes slowly
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(a causal EXPANDING ranking of sessions, re-evaluated, not per-bar noise).
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CAUSAL: the session strength is an expanding mean of past per-session hourly returns
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(data strictly < current bar). No full-sample calendar fit.
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import sys
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
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import altlib as al # noqa: E402
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# Session blocks in UTC (8h each). Asia tends to be the dead block for crypto.
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# 0=Asia(0-7), 1=EU(8-15), 2=US(16-23)
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def _session_id(hours: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
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return np.where(hours < 8, 0, np.where(hours < 16, 1, 2)).astype(int)
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def _causal_session_weak(r: np.ndarray, sess: np.ndarray, bpd: int,
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warmup_days: int = 180) -> np.ndarray:
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"""For each bar i, return the id of the session that is CAUSALLY weakest by expanding
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mean hourly return using data strictly before i. Before warmup -> -1 (no opinion).
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Computed once per day (at the first bar of each session-0 day) so it changes slowly."""
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n = len(r)
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weak = np.full(n, -1, dtype=int)
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# running sums per session
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ssum = np.zeros(3)
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scnt = np.zeros(3)
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warm = warmup_days * bpd
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# We update the running stats with bar i-1 before deciding for bar i (strictly causal).
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cur_weak = -1
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for i in range(1, n):
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s_prev = sess[i - 1]
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ssum[s_prev] += r[i - 1]
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scnt[s_prev] += 1
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if i >= warm and scnt.min() > 0:
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means = ssum / scnt
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cur_weak = int(np.argmin(means))
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weak[i] = cur_weak
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return weak
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def target(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
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c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
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dt = pd.to_datetime(df["datetime"], utc=True)
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hours = dt.dt.hour.values
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bpd = al.bars_per_day(df) # 24 at 1h
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# --- TP01-style slow trend direction (long-flat) -------------------------
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horizons = tuple(d * bpd for d in (30, 90, 180))
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nbar = len(c)
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acc = np.zeros(nbar); cnt = np.zeros(nbar)
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for h in horizons:
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s = np.full(nbar, np.nan)
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s[h:] = np.sign(c[h:] / c[:-h] - 1.0)
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v = np.isfinite(s)
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acc[v] += s[v]; cnt[v] += 1
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direction = np.zeros(nbar)
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nz = cnt > 0
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direction[nz] = acc[nz] / cnt[nz]
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direction = np.clip(direction, 0, None) # long-flat like TP01
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# vol-target (TP01 canonical)
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base = al.vol_target(direction, df, target_vol=0.20, vol_win_days=30, leverage_cap=2.0)
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# --- session overlay -----------------------------------------------------
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r = al.simple_returns(c)
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sess = _session_id(hours)
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weak = _causal_session_weak(r, sess, bpd, warmup_days=180)
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# weight: full exposure outside the causally-weak session, reduced during it.
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# NOTE (honest, after a full sweep): every step away from 1.0 (i.e. MORE overlay)
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# strictly degrades both Sharpe and turnover vs plain TP01 — the dead-Asia effect is
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# already captured by TP01's vol-targeting, and gating removes good trend days too.
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# 0.9 is the least-harmful overlay. The angle does NOT earn a slot (see report notes).
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w_weak = 0.9
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sess_w = np.where(sess == weak, w_weak, 1.0)
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sess_w[weak < 0] = 1.0 # no opinion -> full (TP01 behavior)
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return base * sess_w
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"""agent_02_overnight_vs_intraday — SESSION family, slug=overnight_vs_intraday (TF 1h).
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ANGLE: exploit which UTC session carries the drift (overnight-analog 0-7 vs active EU 8-15
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vs active US 16-23). Tilt exposure toward the historically-positive session, causal expanding.
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WHAT THE DATA SAYS (BTC & ETH, 1h, full sample — exploration only, NOT fit into the signal):
|
||||||
|
per-session annualized drift, both assets, stable across nearly every year:
|
||||||
|
overnight 0-7 UTC : ~0 (DEAD; deeply NEGATIVE in 2026)
|
||||||
|
EU 8-15 UTC: +0.2
|
||||||
|
US 16-23 UTC: +0.3..+0.45 (carries the drift; positive in the 2025-26 hold-out)
|
||||||
|
This is a genuine STRUCTURAL premium: a pure "long-US / short-overnight" carry has a real
|
||||||
|
GROSS Sharpe ~0.85 (BTC) / ~0.90 (ETH), in-sample and out. The catch is the FEE WALL.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
THE FEE WALL (the honest result this agent documents): harvesting the session premium needs
|
||||||
|
intraday in/out. Even ONE long-flat cycle per day = 730 RT/yr ~ 73%/yr in fees at 0.10% RT,
|
||||||
|
and the GROSS ~0.85 collapses to NET ~0. A 2-flip "long-US / short-overnight" structural carry
|
||||||
|
turns the +0.85 gross into -0.66 NET. The drift is real; it is simply NOT economic on Deribit.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
DESIGN (lowest-turnover faithful encoding): rather than churn intra-day, we tilt the SLOW
|
||||||
|
daily TSMOM trend (TP01 horizons 30/90/180d, long-flat, vol-targeted) by a CAUSAL EXPANDING
|
||||||
|
ranking of session strength: full exposure outside the causally-weakest session, reduced
|
||||||
|
during it. The trend changes ~monthly and the session ranking is near-static (US ~always
|
||||||
|
wins), so the position barely moves -> turnover stays in the tens/yr, not the hundreds. This
|
||||||
|
trades the session edge for fee survival; the honest cost is that what survives is mostly
|
||||||
|
trend-beta (corr to TP01), so the marginal judge is expected to call it REDUNDANT/DILUTES.
|
||||||
|
The clean negative IS the deliverable: the overnight premium does not beat Deribit fees.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CAUSAL: session strength = expanding mean per-session hourly return using data strictly
|
||||||
|
before the current bar (updated AFTER reading). No full-sample calendar fit.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Session blocks in UTC (8h each). 0=overnight/Asia(0-7), 1=EU(8-15), 2=US(16-23).
|
||||||
|
_WARMUP_DAYS = 180
|
||||||
|
_W_WEAK = 0.4 # exposure multiplier during the causally-weakest session
|
||||||
|
_VOL_TARGET = 0.20
|
||||||
|
_VOL_WIN_D = 30
|
||||||
|
_LEV_CAP = 1.5
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _session_id(hours: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
return np.where(hours < 8, 0, np.where(hours < 16, 1, 2)).astype(int)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _causal_session_rank(r: np.ndarray, sess: np.ndarray, bpd: int,
|
||||||
|
warmup_days: int = _WARMUP_DAYS):
|
||||||
|
"""For each bar i return (weak_id, strong_id) by CAUSAL EXPANDING mean per-session hourly
|
||||||
|
return using bars strictly < i. -1 before warmup. The accumulator is updated with bar i-1
|
||||||
|
BEFORE deciding bar i, so it never peeks at the current/future bar."""
|
||||||
|
n = len(r)
|
||||||
|
weak = np.full(n, -1, dtype=int)
|
||||||
|
strong = np.full(n, -1, dtype=int)
|
||||||
|
ssum = np.zeros(3)
|
||||||
|
scnt = np.zeros(3)
|
||||||
|
warm = warmup_days * bpd
|
||||||
|
cw = cs = -1
|
||||||
|
for i in range(1, n):
|
||||||
|
sp = sess[i - 1]
|
||||||
|
ssum[sp] += r[i - 1]
|
||||||
|
scnt[sp] += 1
|
||||||
|
if i >= warm and scnt.min() > 0:
|
||||||
|
means = ssum / scnt
|
||||||
|
cw = int(np.argmin(means))
|
||||||
|
cs = int(np.argmax(means))
|
||||||
|
weak[i] = cw
|
||||||
|
strong[i] = cs
|
||||||
|
return weak, strong
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def target(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
dt = pd.to_datetime(df["datetime"], utc=True)
|
||||||
|
hours = dt.dt.hour.values
|
||||||
|
bpd = al.bars_per_day(df) # 24 at 1h
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- TP01-style slow long-flat trend (the low-turnover carrier) ----------
|
||||||
|
nbar = len(c)
|
||||||
|
acc = np.zeros(nbar)
|
||||||
|
cnt = np.zeros(nbar)
|
||||||
|
for d in (30, 90, 180):
|
||||||
|
h = d * bpd
|
||||||
|
s = np.full(nbar, np.nan)
|
||||||
|
s[h:] = np.sign(c[h:] / c[:-h] - 1.0)
|
||||||
|
v = np.isfinite(s)
|
||||||
|
acc[v] += s[v]
|
||||||
|
cnt[v] += 1
|
||||||
|
direction = np.zeros(nbar)
|
||||||
|
nz = cnt > 0
|
||||||
|
direction[nz] = acc[nz] / cnt[nz]
|
||||||
|
direction = np.clip(direction, 0, None) # long-flat
|
||||||
|
base = al.vol_target(direction, df, _VOL_TARGET, _VOL_WIN_D, _LEV_CAP)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- causal session ranking -> down-weight the weakest session -----------
|
||||||
|
r = al.simple_returns(c)
|
||||||
|
sess = _session_id(hours)
|
||||||
|
weak, _strong = _causal_session_rank(r, sess, bpd)
|
||||||
|
sess_w = np.where(sess == weak, _W_WEAK, 1.0)
|
||||||
|
sess_w[weak < 0] = 1.0 # no opinion -> full
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
return base * sess_w
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
|
||||||
|
d = al.get(a, "1h")
|
||||||
|
ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
|
||||||
|
print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
|
||||||
|
"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,142 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""agent_03_funding_clock_15m — FUNDING family, slug=funding_clock_15m (TF=15m).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ANGLE [family=funding]: perp funding settles at 00/08/16 UTC. The folklore is a
|
||||||
|
pre-funding DRIFT (positioning into the stamp) and a post-funding REVERSION (the crowd
|
||||||
|
that paid funding gets flushed). We mine that TIME structure on the certified 15m feed and
|
||||||
|
turn it into a LOW-TURNOVER tilt on the daily-ish TSMOM trend.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CONSTRUCTION (strictly causal, low-turnover):
|
||||||
|
* BASE = TP01-style long-flat TSMOM (30/90/180d horizons) vol-targeted. This carries the
|
||||||
|
real, slow trend (monthly flips) and is what gives a positive standalone Sharpe.
|
||||||
|
* FUNDING TILT = a CAUSAL EXPANDING mean of past 15m returns bucketed by the funding-phase
|
||||||
|
(hours since the last 00/08/16 stamp, h%8 in 0..7). We compute, per phase, the expanding
|
||||||
|
average return using ONLY bars strictly before i. The tilt scales the base UP in phases
|
||||||
|
that have been historically strong and DOWN (toward flat, never short) in weak phases.
|
||||||
|
* The phase changes only on the hour boundary and the expanding bias evolves slowly, so the
|
||||||
|
tilt is a smooth multiplier on an already-slow trend -> turnover stays bounded (~tens/yr).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
FEE DISCIPLINE: a naive "flip in the pre-funding window, flip out after" churns ~2000x/yr =
|
||||||
|
fee-death (-8 Sharpe NET). We NEVER trade the window directly; the funding clock only
|
||||||
|
re-weights a slow trend by a slowly-moving causal bias, and we smooth the multiplier with an
|
||||||
|
EMA so it cannot oscillate bar-to-bar.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HONEST PRIOR (measured before coding): on the certified Deribit *index* price the pre/post-
|
||||||
|
funding 15m windows carry ~the same drift as every other bar (PRE 0.16 vs other 0.17 bps on
|
||||||
|
BTC) and the small pre-2025 edge FLIPS sign in the hold-out (BTC PRE 0.22 -> -0.12 bps; ETH
|
||||||
|
0.32 -> -0.27). Funding is a perp-vs-spot cashflow; the spot/index price has no robust
|
||||||
|
tradeable drift around the stamp net of the trend.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
FINAL VERDICT (hardened judge, 15m): abs_grade=FAIL, marginal=NEUTRAL, earns_slot=FALSE.
|
||||||
|
* turnover 56/yr (LOW, well under the 120 cap), fee survives (fee020 full Sharpe +0.74).
|
||||||
|
* BUT corr to TP01 0.91 (full) / 0.94 (hold): the position IS the trend. The funding tilt
|
||||||
|
is net-HARMFUL out-of-sample (uplift_hold -0.10, uplift_full -0.03) -> DILUTES, not ADDS.
|
||||||
|
* abs FAIL is driven by ETH hold-out Sharpe -0.32 (the 15m TSMOM base itself is weak in the
|
||||||
|
bull-quiet 2025-26 hold-out), NOT by the funding overlay.
|
||||||
|
* Isolated tests confirm NO funding alpha: the pure market-neutral funding-phase signal is
|
||||||
|
-7.5/-3.7 Sharpe NET (turnover ~3000/yr = fee-death) and even GROSS (fee=0) is incoherent
|
||||||
|
(BTC -0.13, ETH +0.21 full); a slow daily funding long-flat overlay is buy&hold-in-disguise
|
||||||
|
(TiM 91-93%, hold-out -0.54 both assets). A tilt_lo/EMA sweep never leaves NEUTRAL.
|
||||||
|
CONCLUSION: the funding clock carries no orthogonal, fee-survivable, robust edge on the
|
||||||
|
certified index feed. This angle does NOT earn a slot. Recorded as a clean negative.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- tunables (conservative for LOW turnover) -------------------------------
|
||||||
|
_HORIZONS_D = (30, 90, 180) # TP01 trend horizons (days)
|
||||||
|
_VOL_TARGET = 0.20
|
||||||
|
_VOL_WIN_D = 30
|
||||||
|
_LEV_CAP = 2.0
|
||||||
|
_WARMUP_D = 180 # need 180d of phase history before trusting the funding bias
|
||||||
|
_MIN_OBS = 400 # need >=400 past obs of a phase before using it
|
||||||
|
_TILT_EMA_BARS = 96 * 7 # smooth the funding multiplier over ~7 days -> kills churn
|
||||||
|
_TILT_LO, _TILT_HI = 0.85, 1.0 # weak phases trimmed to 0.85, never boosted >1 (no leverage add)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _tsmom_dir(c: np.ndarray, bpd: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Long-flat TSMOM direction in {0,1} from multi-horizon sign agreement (causal)."""
|
||||||
|
n = len(c)
|
||||||
|
acc = np.zeros(n)
|
||||||
|
cnt = np.zeros(n)
|
||||||
|
for dd in _HORIZONS_D:
|
||||||
|
h = dd * bpd
|
||||||
|
if h >= n:
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
s = np.full(n, np.nan)
|
||||||
|
s[h:] = np.sign(c[h:] / c[:-h] - 1.0)
|
||||||
|
v = np.isfinite(s)
|
||||||
|
acc[v] += s[v]
|
||||||
|
cnt[v] += 1
|
||||||
|
direction = np.zeros(n)
|
||||||
|
nz = cnt > 0
|
||||||
|
direction[nz] = acc[nz] / cnt[nz]
|
||||||
|
return np.clip(np.sign(direction), 0.0, None)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _causal_funding_bias(r: np.ndarray, phase: np.ndarray, bpd: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Expanding mean 15m return per funding-phase bucket (h%8 = hours-since-last-stamp),
|
||||||
|
strictly causal: bias[i] uses only returns at bars 0..i-1. Before warmup or before a
|
||||||
|
phase has _MIN_OBS samples -> 0.0 (no opinion). The accumulator is updated with bar i-1
|
||||||
|
BEFORE bias[i] is read, so there is no peeking."""
|
||||||
|
n = len(r)
|
||||||
|
bias = np.zeros(n)
|
||||||
|
nbuck = 8
|
||||||
|
psum = np.zeros(nbuck)
|
||||||
|
pcnt = np.zeros(nbuck)
|
||||||
|
warm = _WARMUP_D * bpd
|
||||||
|
for i in range(1, n):
|
||||||
|
b = phase[i - 1]
|
||||||
|
psum[b] += r[i - 1]
|
||||||
|
pcnt[b] += 1
|
||||||
|
if i >= warm:
|
||||||
|
cur = phase[i]
|
||||||
|
if pcnt[cur] > _MIN_OBS:
|
||||||
|
bias[i] = psum[cur] / pcnt[cur]
|
||||||
|
return bias
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def target(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
dt = pd.to_datetime(df["datetime"], utc=True)
|
||||||
|
hour = dt.dt.hour.values
|
||||||
|
bpd = al.bars_per_day(df) # 96 at 15m
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- BASE: slow long-flat TSMOM trend, vol-targeted (TP01 canonical) -----
|
||||||
|
base_dir = _tsmom_dir(c, bpd)
|
||||||
|
base = al.vol_target(base_dir, df, _VOL_TARGET, _VOL_WIN_D, _LEV_CAP)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- FUNDING CLOCK TILT (causal expanding phase bias) --------------------
|
||||||
|
r = al.simple_returns(c)
|
||||||
|
phase = (hour % 8).astype(int) # 0 = funding bar, 1..7 = hours since the 00/08/16 stamp
|
||||||
|
bias = _causal_funding_bias(r, phase, bpd)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Rank the current phase's bias against the causal cross-phase spread: a phase with a
|
||||||
|
# below-typical expanding mean gets trimmed toward _TILT_LO; an average/strong phase
|
||||||
|
# keeps full exposure. We map the bias to a [_TILT_LO, _TILT_HI] multiplier via a slow
|
||||||
|
# sign rule on the demeaned bias, then EMA-smooth it so it moves over days, not bars.
|
||||||
|
# Causal cross-phase mean = expanding mean of all returns (overall drift baseline).
|
||||||
|
overall = np.zeros(len(c))
|
||||||
|
csum = np.cumsum(r)
|
||||||
|
idx = np.arange(len(c))
|
||||||
|
overall[1:] = csum[:-1] / np.maximum(idx[1:], 1) # expanding mean of r[0..i-1]
|
||||||
|
weak = (bias < overall) & (bias != 0.0) # phase historically below baseline drift
|
||||||
|
tilt_raw = np.where(weak, _TILT_LO, _TILT_HI)
|
||||||
|
tilt = al.ema(tilt_raw, _TILT_EMA_BARS) # smooth -> low turnover
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
pos = base * tilt
|
||||||
|
return np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
|
||||||
|
d = al.get(a, "15m")
|
||||||
|
ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
|
||||||
|
print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
|
||||||
|
"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""agent_04_intraday_range_size — VOL family, slug=intraday_range_size (TF 1h).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ANGLE (assigned): use the recent INTRADAY realized range/vol to SIZE a slow daily
|
||||||
|
directional position (risk-responsive sizing). ~daily turnover. Is it orthogonal to a
|
||||||
|
constant-vol-target trend?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
THE ORTHOGONALITY PROBLEM. TP01 already vol-targets with close-to-close (c2c) 30d vol, so
|
||||||
|
"size a trend by c2c vol" is just TP01 -> REDUNDANT. The only way intraday range adds NEW
|
||||||
|
information is the part of the range that c2c vol does NOT see: the gap between how far price
|
||||||
|
TRAVELS inside the day (high-low / Parkinson range) and how far it NETS (close-to-close).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
variance ratio VR = parkinson_vol / c2c_vol (always > 1)
|
||||||
|
- VR ~ low : intraday path is efficient -> directional days -> TREND PAYS.
|
||||||
|
- VR ~ high : price thrashes inside the bar and retraces -> choppy/reverting -> TREND BLEEDS
|
||||||
|
(and the climax/whipsaw spikes that precede trend drawdowns light up here
|
||||||
|
BEFORE c2c vol does, because the range expands intra-bar first).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So we keep TP01's c2c vol-target as the carrier and add ONE intraday-only knob: a causal,
|
||||||
|
expanding-standardized VR that DE-RISKS the trend in high-range/choppy regimes and lets it run
|
||||||
|
in efficient ones. This is risk-responsive sizing whose information is genuinely intraday
|
||||||
|
(Parkinson high-low vs c2c), i.e. orthogonal to a constant c2c vol-target.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TURNOVER. The VR multiplier is heavily smoothed (multi-day EMA) and the slow trend changes
|
||||||
|
~monthly, so the position drifts rather than flips: turnover stays ~50/yr (well under the
|
||||||
|
~120/yr cap, miles under the ~2000/yr fee-death of an hourly flip).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CAUSAL: VR at bar i uses Parkinson/c2c vol over a trailing window ending at i, standardized by
|
||||||
|
an EXPANDING mean/std (data <= i). No full-sample stats, no shift(-k). The evaluator holds
|
||||||
|
position[i] during bar i+1.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HONEST VERDICT (scored 2026-06-21): REDUNDANT. abs_grade PASS (standalone in-sample Sharpe
|
||||||
|
1.48, full ~1.07, hold ~0.35 both assets, fee-survivable to 0.20% RT, turnover ~41/yr -- all
|
||||||
|
green), but corr to TP01 = 0.965 -> earns_slot=false. The VR overlay genuinely improves the
|
||||||
|
STANDALONE hold-out (BTC 0.11->0.35) as risk management, yet the daily stream IS TP01 + a
|
||||||
|
small vol knob, so it adds ~0 at the margin (uplift_hold +0.03). Confirmed structurally by the
|
||||||
|
exploration: NO intraday-range sizing config breaks below corr ~0.90 while a c2c-trend carrier
|
||||||
|
is in the direction -- and every intraday-NATIVE direction tried (close-location-value
|
||||||
|
pressure, range-compression-long) decorrelates to corr ~0.5-0.76 but turns the hold-out
|
||||||
|
NEGATIVE (-0.5..-0.8) and DILUTES. So: intraday range carries usable RISK information (it
|
||||||
|
lifts the standalone hold-out and survives fees at ~daily turnover), but NOT marginal alpha vs
|
||||||
|
a TP01-led book -- a clean negative, consistent with the project's ~1.3 trend ceiling.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- carrier (TP01-style slow long-flat trend) ---
|
||||||
|
_HORIZONS_D = (30, 90, 180)
|
||||||
|
_VOL_TARGET = 0.20
|
||||||
|
_VOL_WIN_D = 30
|
||||||
|
_LEV_CAP = 2.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- intraday range sizer ---
|
||||||
|
_PARK_WIN_D = 3 # trailing window (days) for Parkinson & c2c vol estimates
|
||||||
|
_VR_EXP_MIN_D = 60 # min days before the expanding standardization is trusted
|
||||||
|
_VR_SMOOTH_D = 5 # EMA smoothing of the VR multiplier (kills turnover)
|
||||||
|
_VR_GAIN = 0.50 # how hard the choppy regime de-risks
|
||||||
|
_SIZE_LO, _SIZE_HI = 0.4, 1.3
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _tsmom_long_flat(c: np.ndarray, bpd: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
nbar = len(c)
|
||||||
|
acc = np.zeros(nbar)
|
||||||
|
cnt = np.zeros(nbar)
|
||||||
|
for d in _HORIZONS_D:
|
||||||
|
h = d * bpd
|
||||||
|
if h >= nbar:
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
s = np.full(nbar, np.nan)
|
||||||
|
s[h:] = np.sign(c[h:] / c[:-h] - 1.0)
|
||||||
|
v = np.isfinite(s)
|
||||||
|
acc[v] += s[v]
|
||||||
|
cnt[v] += 1
|
||||||
|
direction = np.zeros(nbar)
|
||||||
|
nz = cnt > 0
|
||||||
|
direction[nz] = acc[nz] / cnt[nz]
|
||||||
|
return np.clip(direction, 0, None) # long-flat
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _expanding_z(x: np.ndarray, min_obs: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Strictly causal expanding-standardized z-score (mean/std over rows 0..i-1).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Uses pandas expanding().shift(1) so bar i is standardized by stats that EXCLUDE i
|
||||||
|
-> no peeking at the current bar. NaN until min_obs samples are available."""
|
||||||
|
s = pd.Series(x)
|
||||||
|
m = s.expanding(min_periods=min_obs).mean().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
sd = s.expanding(min_periods=min_obs).std().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
z = (s - m) / sd.replace(0, np.nan)
|
||||||
|
return z.values
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def target(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
hi = df["high"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
lo = df["low"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
bpd = al.bars_per_day(df)
|
||||||
|
r = al.simple_returns(c)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- carrier: slow long-flat TSMOM, c2c vol-targeted (this IS the TP01 leg) ----
|
||||||
|
direction = _tsmom_long_flat(c, bpd)
|
||||||
|
base = al.vol_target(direction, df, _VOL_TARGET, _VOL_WIN_D, _LEV_CAP)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- intraday-only signal: Parkinson range vol vs close-to-close vol -----------
|
||||||
|
w = _PARK_WIN_D * bpd
|
||||||
|
park = (np.log(np.where((hi > 0) & (lo > 0), hi / lo, 1.0))) ** 2 / (4.0 * np.log(2.0))
|
||||||
|
park_vol = np.sqrt(pd.Series(park).rolling(w, min_periods=w).mean().values)
|
||||||
|
c2c_vol = pd.Series(r).rolling(w, min_periods=w).std().values
|
||||||
|
vr = park_vol / np.where(c2c_vol > 0, c2c_vol, np.nan) # always > 1; high = choppy
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# causal expanding standardization of the regime, smoothed to keep turnover low
|
||||||
|
vrz = _expanding_z(vr, _VR_EXP_MIN_D * bpd)
|
||||||
|
vrz = np.nan_to_num(vrz, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
size = np.clip(1.0 - _VR_GAIN * np.tanh(vrz), _SIZE_LO, _SIZE_HI)
|
||||||
|
size = al.ema(size, _VR_SMOOTH_D * bpd)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
pos = base * size
|
||||||
|
return np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
|
||||||
|
d = al.get(a, "1h")
|
||||||
|
ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
|
||||||
|
print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
|
||||||
|
"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""agent_05_open_drive — MOMO family, slug=open_drive (suggested TF 1h).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ANGLE: the first-N-hours move of the UTC day predicts the rest-of-day direction (intraday
|
||||||
|
continuation / "open drive"). ONE decision per day -> naturally low turnover. The literal
|
||||||
|
angle is: at the end of the first N hours (decided at close of hour N-1), take the SIGN of
|
||||||
|
the day's move so far and ride it; hold to day end.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
THE FEE WALL (the central problem this agent fights): the pure "rest-of-day only, flat
|
||||||
|
overnight" encoding re-enters and exits EVERY active day = ~2 sides/day ~ 730 sides/yr. At
|
||||||
|
0.10% RT that is ~73%/yr of fees and it shreds the gross edge (BTC gross full ~0.86 -> NET
|
||||||
|
~0.18, hold-out flips negative). The first-8-hours continuation is REAL (rest-of-day mean
|
||||||
|
+13bp BTC / +18bp ETH when the open drives up, ~0 when down; market-neutral LS gross Sharpe
|
||||||
|
full +0.86 BTC / +1.01 ETH) but the literal flat-overnight harvest is NOT economic on Deribit.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
LOW-TURNOVER DESIGN: instead of going flat overnight (2 sides/day), we CARRY the open-drive
|
||||||
|
direction 24/7 and only CHANGE it when a new day's first-N-hours move is decisive (a |drive|
|
||||||
|
DEADBAND -> on quiet mornings we keep yesterday's direction, no trade). Combined with a
|
||||||
|
vol-target on the carried direction, turnover collapses to ~30-60 RT/yr (under the 120 cap)
|
||||||
|
while keeping the continuation exposure. The honest cost of carrying overnight is that we also
|
||||||
|
hold through the NEXT first-N-hours window (the noisy part), so some signal is diluted.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CAUSAL: the direction at bar i uses ONLY this day's open (hour-0 open) and close[i] up to the
|
||||||
|
end of the first N hours (hour N-1), both <= close[i]. The deadband and the carry are pure
|
||||||
|
functions of past bars. No full-sample calendar fit; the only "calendar" use is the UTC
|
||||||
|
hour-of-day label of each bar, which is known in real time.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HONEST EXPECTATION: in-sample the carried open-drive stands on its own (BTC ins Sharpe ~1.0),
|
||||||
|
but the 2025-26 hold-out is regime-fragile and asset-split (BTC weak, ETH ok). The hardened
|
||||||
|
judge is the arbiter; a DILUTES/NEUTRAL here is the expected, honest outcome of an intraday
|
||||||
|
continuation that the fee wall and a short hold-out grind down.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
_N_HOURS = 8 # first-N-hours "open drive" window (UTC). 8 = the empirical sweet spot.
|
||||||
|
_Z_DEADBAND = 1.2 # only (re)set direction when the morning move is >=1.2 sigma of an
|
||||||
|
# N-hour move -> a VOL-NORMALIZED deadband (adapts to regime), carry else.
|
||||||
|
# Middle of a broad plateau: N in 4..8, z in 1.0..1.3 all hold positive
|
||||||
|
# hold-out on both assets; (N=8, z=1.2/1.3) is the lowest-turnover PASS.
|
||||||
|
_VOL_WIN_BARS = 24 * 30 # ~30d of 1h bars for the causal hourly-vol estimate
|
||||||
|
_VOL_TARGET = 0.20
|
||||||
|
_VOL_WIN_D = 30
|
||||||
|
_LEV_CAP = 1.5
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _open_drive_direction(df: pd.DataFrame, n_hours: int, z_deadband: float) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Carried direction in {-1,0,+1}, set once/day at the close of hour (n_hours-1) from the
|
||||||
|
sign of the day's open drive, but ONLY when that drive is large RELATIVE TO the prevailing
|
||||||
|
hourly volatility (a vol-normalized deadband). Held until the next decisive morning.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The normalization is the key to regime-robustness: a fixed % deadband mis-fires across the
|
||||||
|
2021 (high-vol) vs 2025 (low-vol) regimes; dividing the drive by the expected N-hour move
|
||||||
|
(sigma_1h * sqrt(N)) makes "decisive" mean the same thing in every regime, and it is what
|
||||||
|
flips the hold-out from negative to strongly positive on BOTH assets at z~1.1.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Causal: at bar i we read this day's hour-0 open, close[i], and the trailing hourly vol up
|
||||||
|
to i. All data <= close[i]; the evaluator holds it during bar i+1 (no leak)."""
|
||||||
|
dt = pd.to_datetime(df["datetime"], utc=True)
|
||||||
|
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
o = df["open"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
hour = dt.dt.hour.values
|
||||||
|
n = len(df)
|
||||||
|
r = al.simple_returns(c)
|
||||||
|
# causal trailing 1h-return std (sigma per bar) -> expected N-hour move = sigma*sqrt(N)
|
||||||
|
rv = pd.Series(r).rolling(_VOL_WIN_BARS, min_periods=200).std().values
|
||||||
|
dirn = np.zeros(n)
|
||||||
|
day_open = np.nan
|
||||||
|
cur = 0.0
|
||||||
|
decide_hour = n_hours - 1
|
||||||
|
for i in range(n):
|
||||||
|
h = hour[i]
|
||||||
|
if h == 0: # new UTC day -> remember its open
|
||||||
|
day_open = o[i]
|
||||||
|
if (h == decide_hour and np.isfinite(day_open)
|
||||||
|
and np.isfinite(rv[i]) and rv[i] > 0):
|
||||||
|
drive = c[i] / day_open - 1.0
|
||||||
|
z = drive / (rv[i] * np.sqrt(n_hours)) # vol-normalized open drive
|
||||||
|
if abs(z) >= z_deadband: # decisive (regime-adjusted) -> reset dir
|
||||||
|
cur = float(np.sign(z))
|
||||||
|
dirn[i] = cur # carry 24/7 (no overnight flat -> low turnover)
|
||||||
|
return dirn
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def target(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Continuous vol-targeted position in [-LEV,LEV] following the carried open drive."""
|
||||||
|
direction = _open_drive_direction(df, _N_HOURS, _Z_DEADBAND)
|
||||||
|
pos = al.vol_target(direction, df, _VOL_TARGET, _VOL_WIN_D, _LEV_CAP)
|
||||||
|
return np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
|
||||||
|
d = al.get(a, "1h")
|
||||||
|
ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
|
||||||
|
print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
|
||||||
|
"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""agent_06_vol_event_revert_15m — REVERT family, slug=vol_event_revert_15m (TF 15m).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ANGLE (assigned): after an intraday LEVEL overshoot beyond k-sigma (causal), FADE it over the
|
||||||
|
next few bars. Heavily GATED so it triggers rarely -> low turnover.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHAT THE 15m DATA ACTUALLY SAYS (measured, honest). Two mean-reversion mechanics live at 15m,
|
||||||
|
and they point OPPOSITE ways:
|
||||||
|
* BAR-LEVEL spike (single |r_i| >= k*sigma): the NEXT bar CONTINUES, it does not revert
|
||||||
|
(cont +2..+4 bp, t~3-4 both assets). Fading a one-bar spike LOSES. So the naive
|
||||||
|
"fade the spike bar" is the wrong sign at 15m -- a clean negative.
|
||||||
|
* LEVEL overshoot (close far from a multi-day EMA, |c-ema|/c >= k*sigma over the window):
|
||||||
|
the price REVERTS toward the EMA over the next ~2 hours (H~8 bars). THIS is the real
|
||||||
|
revert edge, and it is strong only at the EXTREME tail (k>=~1.75-2.0): at k=2, ema in
|
||||||
|
{1,2,3}d, the fade earns +30..+100 bp per event, t~3, on BOTH assets.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So this agent fades the LEVEL OVERSHOOT, not the bar spike, and only at the extreme tail.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
THE FEE / EXPOSURE TRAP (the central, honest tension). The edge is RARE-AND-STRONG: ~30
|
||||||
|
events/yr/asset at k=2, each worth far more than the 10 bp round-trip, so it survives fees
|
||||||
|
easily (turnover ~30/yr, miles under the 120 cap). BUT rare means time-in-market ~0.4% -- the
|
||||||
|
book is flat 99.6% of the time. A rare tail fade can stand on its own (in-sample standalone
|
||||||
|
Sharpe ~0.6) yet contribute almost NOTHING at the portfolio margin, because it is cash nearly
|
||||||
|
always. Pushing exposure up (lower k, vol-target, longer hold) to get a real portfolio weight
|
||||||
|
re-introduces the NON-tail events where the overshoot fade has no edge (or the wrong sign), and
|
||||||
|
the Sharpe collapses to strongly NEGATIVE (verified: k<=1.25 + vol-target -> Sharpe -1 to -2 on
|
||||||
|
both assets). There is no config that is both economically meaningful in size AND keeps the
|
||||||
|
edge: the fade alpha lives only in the thin tail.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CAUSAL: sigma is a trailing rolling std (shifted 1) of 15m returns; the EMA distance is
|
||||||
|
standardized by that sigma times sqrt(window). Entry is decided at close[i]; the fade is held
|
||||||
|
for a fixed H bars then flat. No shift(-k), no full-sample stats. The evaluator holds
|
||||||
|
position[i] during bar i+1.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
RESULT (scored 2026-06-21, hardened marginal judge): EARNS_SLOT = TRUE.
|
||||||
|
abs_grade PASS (BTC full 0.64 / hold 0.95 ; ETH full 0.75 / hold 1.30 ; fee-survivable to
|
||||||
|
0.20% RT at Sharpe 0.59/0.71 ; turnover ~14/yr).
|
||||||
|
marginal ADDS (corr to TP01 -0.10 full / -0.38 hold ; resid Sharpe 0.95 ; alpha +13.8%/yr ;
|
||||||
|
in-sample standalone Sharpe 0.81 ; multi-cut persistent +0.20..+0.30 at every
|
||||||
|
cut 2020-2025 ; NOT a hedge). Blend 0.75*TP01 + 0.25*candidate lifts the book
|
||||||
|
FULL 1.30->1.56 and HOLD-OUT 0.31->0.61 with DD 14%->9.6%.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is the rare case that survives the wall: the LEVEL-overshoot fade fires only on a true tail
|
||||||
|
(consensus across the 1/2/3-day EMAs, |mean dist| >= 2 sigma), pays 30-100+ bp per event vs the
|
||||||
|
10 bp round-trip, and is genuinely orthogonal to a trend book -- so it adds at the portfolio
|
||||||
|
margin instead of re-skinning TP01.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HONEST CAVEATS (the reasons this is a LEAD, not a same-day deploy):
|
||||||
|
* SMALL SAMPLE. ~54 entries (BTC) / 48 (ETH) over ~7.5 years = ~7/yr/asset. The edge is
|
||||||
|
statistically clean (t~3 conditional, positive in 7-8 of 8-9 years per asset, no single
|
||||||
|
year carries it) but it lives in a thin tail -> wide error bars; forward-monitor before
|
||||||
|
sizing it up.
|
||||||
|
* TINY TIME-IN-MARKET (~0.2%). It contributes via rare, sharp, uncorrelated reversion wins,
|
||||||
|
NOT a standing premium. At w25 it nudges; the honest portfolio role is a small satellite
|
||||||
|
that earns its keep in vol spikes, not a core sleeve.
|
||||||
|
* MODEL-FREE BUT TAIL-DRIVEN. The 2020-21 high-vol regimes produced the most events; a long
|
||||||
|
calm regime would starve it. The 1-day sigma window (96 bars) is the natural, robust choice
|
||||||
|
(48 weakens BTC, 192 weakens ETH) -- not over-tuned, but it is one of the load-bearing knobs.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
NOTE: the naive reading of the assigned angle -- fade a single-BAR k-sigma return spike -- is the
|
||||||
|
WRONG SIGN at 15m (the next bar CONTINUES, cont +2..+4 bp t~3-4). Only the LEVEL overshoot
|
||||||
|
reverts. This agent fades the level, not the bar.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
_EMA_HORIZONS_D = (1, 2, 3) # multi-day EMAs whose overshoot we fade (price far from trend)
|
||||||
|
_K = 2.0 # k-sigma overshoot gate -- EXTREME tail only (rare => low turnover)
|
||||||
|
_H_BARS = 8 # hold the fade ~2 hours (8 * 15m), then flat
|
||||||
|
_VOL_WIN_BARS = 96 # ~1 day of 15m bars for the causal return-sigma estimate
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Aggregation across horizons: we fire only when the AVERAGE overshoot across the 1/2/3-day
|
||||||
|
# EMAs exceeds k -- i.e. the price is extended on ALL timescales at once, not just one. This
|
||||||
|
# "consensus" gate is markedly more robust than firing on the single most-extreme horizon
|
||||||
|
# (verified: it lifts both assets' hold-out from ~0.2-0.4 to ~0.9-1.3 AND halves turnover
|
||||||
|
# 30->~14/yr, because it ignores one-horizon flukes). It sits in the MIDDLE of a broad plateau
|
||||||
|
# (k in 1.9..2.1, H in 6..10 -> full 0.54-0.76, in-sample 0.55-0.74, hold 0.5-1.3 on both
|
||||||
|
# assets), so it is not a single-cell fit.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _overshoot_dist(c: np.ndarray, r: np.ndarray, ema_d: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Standardized distance of close from a multi-day EMA, in units of the expected move over
|
||||||
|
the EMA window. CAUSAL: the per-bar return sigma is a trailing rolling std SHIFTED by 1 (it
|
||||||
|
excludes the current bar), and the EMA uses only past bars (adjust=False). A value >= +k
|
||||||
|
means price has overshot the trend to the upside by k 'expected window moves'."""
|
||||||
|
sig = pd.Series(r).rolling(_VOL_WIN_BARS, min_periods=_VOL_WIN_BARS // 2).std().shift(1).values
|
||||||
|
ema = al.ema(c, ema_d * 96)
|
||||||
|
win_bars = ema_d * 96
|
||||||
|
dist = (c - ema) / c / (sig * np.sqrt(win_bars))
|
||||||
|
return dist
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def target(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Continuous fade position in {-1, 0, +1}. When the LEVEL overshoot beyond _K sigma fires
|
||||||
|
on the strongest EMA horizon, take a unit fade toward the trend and hold it for _H_BARS,
|
||||||
|
then go flat. Unit (not vol-targeted) on purpose: the edge lives in the thin tail and
|
||||||
|
vol-targeting it up re-introduces the no-edge middle and destroys the signal (verified)."""
|
||||||
|
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
r = al.simple_returns(c)
|
||||||
|
n = len(c)
|
||||||
|
dists = [_overshoot_dist(c, r, h) for h in _EMA_HORIZONS_D]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
pos = np.zeros(n)
|
||||||
|
cur = 0.0
|
||||||
|
countdown = 0
|
||||||
|
for i in range(n):
|
||||||
|
if countdown > 0: # still holding a fade -> carry, no new trade
|
||||||
|
pos[i] = cur
|
||||||
|
countdown -= 1
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
# consensus overshoot: AVERAGE across horizons (need all timescales extended together)
|
||||||
|
vals = [d[i] for d in dists if np.isfinite(d[i])]
|
||||||
|
if vals:
|
||||||
|
mean_dist = float(np.mean(vals))
|
||||||
|
if abs(mean_dist) >= _K:
|
||||||
|
cur = -float(np.sign(mean_dist)) # FADE toward the trend
|
||||||
|
pos[i] = cur
|
||||||
|
countdown = _H_BARS - 1
|
||||||
|
return np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
|
||||||
|
d = al.get(a, "15m")
|
||||||
|
ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
|
||||||
|
print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
|
||||||
|
"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,128 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""agent_07_volume_spike_revert — REVERT family, slug=volume_spike_revert (TF 1h).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ANGLE (assigned): FADE moves that occur on abnormal VOLUME spikes. A 1h bar with a large
|
||||||
|
DOWN return AND a volume far above its causal-expanding norm is, on certified BTC/ETH, a
|
||||||
|
capitulation print: forced selling (liquidations, stops) overshoots, and price gives part of it
|
||||||
|
back over the following day. When such a down-spike fires we go LONG (buy the dip) and hold for
|
||||||
|
~1 day, then flat.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHAT THE EXPLORATION TAUGHT (and why the final shape is what it is):
|
||||||
|
* The fade is ASYMMETRIC. Fading DOWN-spikes (buy capitulation) pays robustly; fading UP-spikes
|
||||||
|
(shorting pumps) is dangerous in a bull tape and just adds short-trend-beta -> we go LONG-ONLY.
|
||||||
|
* It needs a VOLUME-Z CAP. The most violent prints (volz > ~3.2) split into the best
|
||||||
|
crash-reversals AND the worst runaway moves (per-event std ~720bp); fading them is a coin
|
||||||
|
flip. We trade the MODERATE spike band [2.5, 3.2) which carries the clean reversion.
|
||||||
|
* Fade STRONG candles, not reversal candles. A down bar that closes near its LOW (already
|
||||||
|
reverted intrabar) keeps falling; a down bar closing near its low with a big move is the
|
||||||
|
overshoot that snaps back. So we EXCLUDE bars that already reversed inside their range.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHY IT IS LOW TURNOVER (the fee wall). The trigger is a CONJUNCTION of rare causal events: a
|
||||||
|
log-volume z in [2.5, 3.2) AND a return z below -1.25 AND a non-reversed down candle. On 1h
|
||||||
|
BTC/ETH (~68k bars) this fires only ~120 times over 7.5 years -> ONE long held ~24h then flat ->
|
||||||
|
turnover ~17-19/yr. Miles under the ~120/yr cap and nowhere near the ~2000/yr fee-death of an
|
||||||
|
hourly flip. We use intraday volume/return STRUCTURE for INFORMATION (rare capitulation timing),
|
||||||
|
not for high-frequency churn -> it survives the 0.20% RT fee sweep comfortably.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CAUSALITY. Every input at bar i uses only rows 0..i:
|
||||||
|
* volume z = expanding-standardized log-volume (mean/std over rows 0..i-1, via .shift(1)).
|
||||||
|
* return z = rolling z of close-to-close returns ending at i.
|
||||||
|
* close-location-value uses bar i's own OHLC (known at close[i]).
|
||||||
|
The go-long decision is taken at close[i]; the evaluator holds it during bar i+1. No shift(-k),
|
||||||
|
no full-sample stats. The position is FLAT (0) the great majority of the time -> a satellite,
|
||||||
|
orthogonal-by-design to a slow long-flat trend (TP01), the only way an intraday signal can ADD.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HONEST VERDICT (scored 2026-06-21, hardened marginal judge @ 1h): EARNS_SLOT = TRUE.
|
||||||
|
marginal=ADDS, abs_grade=WEAK, robust_oos=True, is_hedge=False, has_insample_edge=True.
|
||||||
|
corr->TP01 0.14 (orthogonal), cand in-sample Sharpe 0.573, blend uplift_hold +0.278 /
|
||||||
|
uplift_full +0.039, turnover 25/yr, fee@0.20%RT full Sharpe 0.35 (survives comfortably).
|
||||||
|
PLATEAU: the whole volth=2.4 row (volcap 3.3-3.8 x retz 0.75-1.25, 9 cells) earns the slot,
|
||||||
|
in-sample 0.55-0.59, jackknife +0.06 -- a real plateau, not a lucky cell. Multi-cut uplift is
|
||||||
|
POSITIVE every year 2020-2025 (+0.17,+0.20,+0.10,+0.11,+0.07,+0.09).
|
||||||
|
CAUSAL: scrambling all future rows leaves past positions byte-identical (max|Δ|=0).
|
||||||
|
HONEST CAVEATS (price it as a small diversifying satellite, NOT standalone alpha):
|
||||||
|
* STANDALONE IS WEAK. Full Sharpe ~0.40 (BTC) / 0.50 (ETH), standalone DD 34-43% (rarely-on,
|
||||||
|
undiversified contrarian). The value is purely MARGINAL (it lifts a TP01-led book), not edge
|
||||||
|
you would trade alone.
|
||||||
|
* EVENT-SPARSE & FRONT-LOADED. 147 BTC fires total but mostly 2018-2020; only 2 in 2025, 0 in
|
||||||
|
2026 (calm/trending tape has few capitulations). BTC's hold-out is near event-free, so the
|
||||||
|
blend's hold-out uplift is carried by ETH (13 fires in 2025, hold Sharpe 1.12). Forward-monitor.
|
||||||
|
* HEDGE-ADJACENT. It pays more when TP01 is DOWN (uplift TP01-down +0.23 vs TP01-up +0.08): it
|
||||||
|
clears the is_hedge gate (still positive in up-regimes) but a big part of its worth is
|
||||||
|
drawdown-dampening (buying capitulation dips during bear tape). Size it as such.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- spike detection (causal) ---
|
||||||
|
_VOL_Z_MIN_D = 60 # min days before the expanding volume-z is trusted
|
||||||
|
_VOL_Z_TH = 2.4 # log-volume z floor: an abnormal spike
|
||||||
|
_VOL_Z_CAP = 3.5 # log-volume z cap: above this, the print is a coin-flip (runaway), skip it
|
||||||
|
_RET_WIN_D = 5 # window (days of 1h bars) for the return z-score
|
||||||
|
_RET_Z_TH = 1.0 # the down move must itself be large (a real capitulation, not noise)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- fade holding / sizing ---
|
||||||
|
_HOLD_D = 1.0 # hold the long ~1 day, then flat
|
||||||
|
_LONG_SIZE = 1.0 # fixed unit long on a fire (a contrarian satellite, no leverage)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _expanding_z(x: np.ndarray, min_obs: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Strictly causal expanding-standardized z-score (mean/std over rows 0..i-1).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
pandas expanding().shift(1) standardizes bar i by stats that EXCLUDE i -> no peeking.
|
||||||
|
NaN until min_obs samples are available."""
|
||||||
|
s = pd.Series(x)
|
||||||
|
m = s.expanding(min_periods=min_obs).mean().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
sd = s.expanding(min_periods=min_obs).std().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
return ((s - m) / sd.replace(0, np.nan)).values
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _fires(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Boolean fire array, True on a fade-able down-spike, decided with data <= close[i]."""
|
||||||
|
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
h = df["high"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
l = df["low"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
v = df["volume"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
bpd = al.bars_per_day(df)
|
||||||
|
r = al.simple_returns(c)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
volz = _expanding_z(np.log(v + 1.0), _VOL_Z_MIN_D * bpd)
|
||||||
|
retz = al.zscore(r, _RET_WIN_D * bpd)
|
||||||
|
band = (volz > _VOL_Z_TH) & (volz < _VOL_Z_CAP) # moderate spike band only
|
||||||
|
clv = np.where(h > l, (c - l) / (h - l), 0.5) # close location value in [0,1]
|
||||||
|
# a down bar that already reversed inside its range (closes in the UPPER half) keeps falling;
|
||||||
|
# we fade the OVERSHOOT down bar that closes near its low (clv <= 0.5).
|
||||||
|
not_reversed = clv <= 0.5
|
||||||
|
fire = band & (retz < -_RET_Z_TH) & not_reversed & (r < 0)
|
||||||
|
return np.nan_to_num(fire, nan=False).astype(bool)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def target(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Long-flat contrarian: go long for HOLD_D days after a fade-able down-spike, else flat."""
|
||||||
|
bpd = al.bars_per_day(df)
|
||||||
|
fire = _fires(df)
|
||||||
|
hold = max(1, int(round(_HOLD_D * bpd)))
|
||||||
|
n = len(df)
|
||||||
|
pos = np.zeros(n)
|
||||||
|
remaining = 0
|
||||||
|
for i in range(n):
|
||||||
|
if fire[i]:
|
||||||
|
remaining = hold # a fresh spike refreshes the hold window
|
||||||
|
if remaining > 0:
|
||||||
|
pos[i] = _LONG_SIZE
|
||||||
|
remaining -= 1
|
||||||
|
return np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
|
||||||
|
d = al.get(a, "1h")
|
||||||
|
ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
|
||||||
|
print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
|
||||||
|
"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,167 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""agent_08_gap_fill — STRUCT family, slug=gap_fill (TF 1h).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ANGLE (assigned): session/period GAP-FILL tendency. After a large jump between session
|
||||||
|
closes/opens, lean toward PARTIAL REVERSION. Low-frequency, gated.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHAT THE CERTIFIED DATA SAYS (BTC/ETH 1h, exploration only — NOT fit into the signal):
|
||||||
|
Measure the 'gap' as the trailing one-session (24h) move ending at a session boundary, and
|
||||||
|
the forward 24h return. The reversion is STRONGLY ASYMMETRIC:
|
||||||
|
* extreme UP gaps (>=97th pctl 24h jump) -> forward 24h ~0% (BTC -0.08%, ETH +0.31%):
|
||||||
|
NO clean fade. Shorting up-gaps in a bull tape just sells trend-beta -> we DON'T.
|
||||||
|
* extreme DOWN gaps (<=3rd pctl 24h drop) -> forward 24h +1.2% (BTC) / +1.35% (ETH):
|
||||||
|
a robust gap-FILL. A violent one-session sell-off (stops, liquidations, thin-book
|
||||||
|
overshoot) gives part of it back over the following session.
|
||||||
|
Conditioning on WHICH session the down-gap closes in: the low-liquidity ASIA/overnight
|
||||||
|
block (0-7 UTC) reverts a touch MORE (BTC +1.40% vs +0.91% US), consistent with thin-book
|
||||||
|
overshoot. We use this as a soft TILT (size up Asia-close gaps), not a hard gate (noisy).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
DESIGN (LONG-ONLY gap-fill, the only side that pays): when the trailing one-session move is a
|
||||||
|
rare DOWN gap (causal expanding z below a floor) we go LONG and hold ~1 session, then flat. We
|
||||||
|
trade a MODERATE down-gap band [floor, cap): the most violent prints (z below the cap) split
|
||||||
|
into clean reversals AND runaway crashes -> a coin flip, so we skip them (same lesson as the
|
||||||
|
volume-spike fade). FLAT the great majority of the time -> a satellite, orthogonal by design to
|
||||||
|
a slow long-flat trend (TP01), the only way an intraday signal can ADD on a fee wall.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHY LOW TURNOVER (the fee wall). The fire is a CONJUNCTION of rare causal events: an
|
||||||
|
expanding-z of the trailing one-session return below a floor (and above a cap), measured on a
|
||||||
|
NON-OVERLAPPING session grid (one decision per session, not per hour). Over 7.5y of 1h BTC/ETH
|
||||||
|
this fires only a few dozen times/yr; ONE long held ~1 session then flat -> turnover in the
|
||||||
|
tens/yr, miles under the ~120/yr cap and nowhere near the ~2000/yr fee-death of an hourly flip.
|
||||||
|
We use the intraday session STRUCTURE for INFORMATION (gap timing/sizing), not for churn.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CONTEXT GATE (what unlocked the edge). The gap-fill is conditional: an ISOLATED down-gap in
|
||||||
|
calm tape barely reverts (forward 24h ~0%), but a down-gap WITHIN a sustained sell-off (weekly
|
||||||
|
move <= -8%) reverts hard (forward +1.6..+2.5%). The capitulation that snaps back is the one
|
||||||
|
that overshoots an existing slide. Requiring this context (a) sharpened the edge and (b) woke
|
||||||
|
ETH up (which was flat without it) -> both assets full Sharpe >= 0.5.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CAUSALITY. Every input at bar i uses only rows 0..i:
|
||||||
|
* gap z = expanding-standardized (mean/std over rows 0..i-1 via .shift(1)) of the trailing
|
||||||
|
one-session log return. No full-sample stats.
|
||||||
|
* context drawdown = trailing 7-day move ending at i.
|
||||||
|
* session id uses bar i's own UTC hour (known at close[i]).
|
||||||
|
The go-long decision is taken at close[i]; the evaluator holds it during bar i+1. No shift(-k),
|
||||||
|
no full-sample calendar fit. VERIFIED: scrambling all future rows leaves past positions
|
||||||
|
byte-identical (max|delta|=0 on both assets).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HONEST VERDICT (scored 2026-06-21, hardened marginal judge @ 1h): EARNS_SLOT = TRUE.
|
||||||
|
abs_grade=PASS, marginal=ADDS, robust_oos=True, multicut_persistent=True, is_hedge=False,
|
||||||
|
has_insample_edge=True. corr->TP01 0.044 (orthogonal), beta 0.054, resid Sharpe 0.66,
|
||||||
|
alpha/yr +9.9%. cand in-sample (pre-2025) Sharpe 0.729; standalone full 0.72 / hold 0.68.
|
||||||
|
Blend 0.75*TP01+0.25*gap_fill: full 1.30->1.45 (+0.152), hold 0.31->0.55 (+0.243), DD 9.0%.
|
||||||
|
Turnover 9-12/yr; fee@0.20%RT full Sharpe 0.50 (survives the sweep comfortably).
|
||||||
|
MULTI-CUT uplift POSITIVE every year 2020-2026 (+0.12,+0.16,+0.06,+0.13,+0.16,+0.24,...).
|
||||||
|
PLATEAU: floor 2.3-2.5 x cap 3.6-4.0 x ctx_dd -0.05..-0.11 x hold 18-24 x gap 24-36 all
|
||||||
|
clear the bar (floor 2.1 collapses -> shallow gaps are not capitulation; that boundary is
|
||||||
|
the edge, not a fit). 62/65 fires over 7.5y, spread across EVERY year incl. the hold-out.
|
||||||
|
HONEST CAVEATS (price it as a small diversifying satellite, NOT standalone alpha):
|
||||||
|
* STANDALONE IS MODEST. Single-asset full Sharpe ~0.53-0.61, standalone DD is large (rarely-on
|
||||||
|
undiversified contrarian). The value is MARGINAL (it lifts a TP01-led book), not edge to
|
||||||
|
trade alone. The whole worth is the +0.24 hold-out uplift at corr 0.044.
|
||||||
|
* EVENT-SPARSE. ~8-9 fires/yr; the bear years 2021-22 carry most (more sell-offs = more
|
||||||
|
capitulation gaps). Calm/trending tape has few. Forward-monitor the fire rate.
|
||||||
|
* HEDGE-ADJACENT. It pays more when TP01 is DOWN (uplift TP01-down +0.28 vs up +0.17,
|
||||||
|
yearly hedge-corr -0.87): it CLEARS the is_hedge gate (still positive in up-regimes) but a
|
||||||
|
chunk of its worth is drawdown-dampening (buying capitulation dips during bear tape). Size
|
||||||
|
it as a defensive-leaning diversifier.
|
||||||
|
* The ASIA tilt is a deliberate NO-OP (=1.0): exploration showed Asia-close gaps revert a
|
||||||
|
touch more, but the Asia share of fires (~33%) is chance-level -> not enough to size on.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- gap detection (causal) ---
|
||||||
|
_GAP_HOURS = 24 # the 'session/period' window: a trailing one-day jump
|
||||||
|
_Z_MIN_D = 90 # min days before the expanding gap-z is trusted
|
||||||
|
_Z_FLOOR = 2.3 # gap-z must be at least this negative: a real down-gap
|
||||||
|
_Z_CAP = 3.8 # below this z the print is a coin-flip (runaway crash), skip it
|
||||||
|
_GRID_HOURS = 8 # decide once per session block (non-overlapping) -> low turnover
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- context gate: a down-gap WITHIN a sell-off is the overshoot that snaps back; an
|
||||||
|
# isolated down-gap in calm tape barely reverts (exploration: isolated fwd ~0% vs
|
||||||
|
# crash-context fwd +1.6-2.5%). Require a sustained weekly drawdown context. CAUSAL. ---
|
||||||
|
_CTX_DAYS = 7 # weekly drawdown window
|
||||||
|
_CTX_DD = -0.08 # the trailing-week move must be <= this (a real sell-off)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- fill holding / sizing ---
|
||||||
|
_HOLD_HOURS = 24 # hold the long ~1 session, then flat
|
||||||
|
_ASIA_TILT = 1.0 # extra size when the down-gap closes in the thin Asia block (0-7 UTC)
|
||||||
|
_BASE_SIZE = 1.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _expanding_z(x: np.ndarray, min_obs: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Strictly causal expanding-standardized z-score (mean/std over rows 0..i-1).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
pandas expanding().shift(1) standardizes bar i by stats that EXCLUDE i -> no peeking.
|
||||||
|
NaN until min_obs samples are available."""
|
||||||
|
s = pd.Series(x)
|
||||||
|
m = s.expanding(min_periods=min_obs).mean().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
sd = s.expanding(min_periods=min_obs).std().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
return ((s - m) / sd.replace(0, np.nan)).values
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _fires(df: pd.DataFrame) -> tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray]:
|
||||||
|
"""(fire, size) per bar, decided with data <= close[i].
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
fire = True on a fade-able DOWN gap; size = the long size to take (Asia tilt)."""
|
||||||
|
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
dt = pd.to_datetime(df["datetime"], utc=True)
|
||||||
|
hour = dt.dt.hour.values
|
||||||
|
bpd = al.bars_per_day(df) # 24 at 1h
|
||||||
|
gap_bars = max(1, int(round(_GAP_HOURS / 24 * bpd)))
|
||||||
|
grid_bars = max(1, int(round(_GRID_HOURS / 24 * bpd)))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# trailing one-session log return (the 'gap')
|
||||||
|
gap = np.full(len(c), np.nan)
|
||||||
|
gap[gap_bars:] = np.log(c[gap_bars:] / c[:-gap_bars])
|
||||||
|
gz = _expanding_z(gap, _Z_MIN_D * bpd)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# context: sustained weekly drawdown (the down-gap is the overshoot of a sell-off)
|
||||||
|
ctx_bars = max(1, int(round(_CTX_DAYS * bpd)))
|
||||||
|
ctx = np.full(len(c), np.nan)
|
||||||
|
ctx[ctx_bars:] = c[ctx_bars:] / c[:-ctx_bars] - 1.0
|
||||||
|
in_selloff = ctx <= _CTX_DD
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# moderate down-gap band, in a sell-off, on the non-overlapping session grid
|
||||||
|
on_grid = (np.arange(len(c)) % grid_bars) == 0
|
||||||
|
band = (gz <= -_Z_FLOOR) & (gz > -_Z_CAP)
|
||||||
|
fire = np.nan_to_num(band & in_selloff & on_grid, nan=False).astype(bool)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Asia-close (0-7 UTC) down-gaps revert a touch more -> soft up-tilt
|
||||||
|
in_asia = hour < 8
|
||||||
|
size = np.where(in_asia, _BASE_SIZE * _ASIA_TILT, _BASE_SIZE)
|
||||||
|
return fire, size
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def target(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Long-flat gap-fill: go long for HOLD_HOURS after a fade-able down-gap, else flat."""
|
||||||
|
bpd = al.bars_per_day(df)
|
||||||
|
fire, size = _fires(df)
|
||||||
|
hold = max(1, int(round(_HOLD_HOURS / 24 * bpd)))
|
||||||
|
n = len(df)
|
||||||
|
pos = np.zeros(n)
|
||||||
|
remaining = 0
|
||||||
|
cur_size = 0.0
|
||||||
|
for i in range(n):
|
||||||
|
if fire[i]:
|
||||||
|
remaining = hold # a fresh down-gap refreshes the hold window
|
||||||
|
cur_size = size[i]
|
||||||
|
if remaining > 0:
|
||||||
|
pos[i] = cur_size
|
||||||
|
remaining -= 1
|
||||||
|
return np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
|
||||||
|
d = al.get(a, "1h")
|
||||||
|
ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
|
||||||
|
print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
|
||||||
|
"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""agent_09_prevday_range_breakout — STRUCT family, slug=prevday_range_breakout (TF 1h).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ANGLE (assigned): breakout of the PRIOR-day high/low, enter and hold to day end
|
||||||
|
(turtle-intraday). ~1-2 decisions/day. The intraday feed gives us the *intra-day* breakout
|
||||||
|
LEVEL (yesterday's high & low, known at the UTC midnight roll) which a pure 1d bar cannot
|
||||||
|
express -- a 1d Donchian only sees close-to-close, not "did THIS bar pierce yesterday's range".
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
THE FEE WALL (the central problem). The literal turtle ("enter on the break, flat at day end")
|
||||||
|
re-enters/exits nearly every day -> ~2 sides/day ~ 500-730 sides/yr. At 0.10% RT that is
|
||||||
|
~50-73%/yr of fees and it shreds any gross edge. So the literal angle is fee-death; we redesign
|
||||||
|
it as a LOW-TURNOVER channel breakout.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
LOW-TURNOVER REDESIGN -- "carried prior-day-range breakout" (stop-and-stay, not stop-and-flat):
|
||||||
|
* Direction flips to +1 only when close[i] pierces the PRIOR DAY's HIGH; to -1 (or flat) only
|
||||||
|
when close[i] pierces the PRIOR DAY's LOW. Between breaks we CARRY the last direction 24/7
|
||||||
|
(no flat-at-day-end -> no daily round-trip).
|
||||||
|
* A breakout buffer (k * prior-day range) makes the level "decisive" -> filters the noise
|
||||||
|
pierces that cause churn, the way a Donchian needs a clean break.
|
||||||
|
* The carried direction is vol-targeted (TP01-style) so the position drifts with vol rather
|
||||||
|
than jumping, which further cuts |dpos| turnover.
|
||||||
|
This turns ~500 sides/yr into ~the number of genuine regime changes (~40-100/yr), under the cap.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
LONG-SHORT is the slot-earner (vs LONG-FLAT): a SYMMETRIC book -- pierce yesterday's HIGH ->
|
||||||
|
long, pierce yesterday's LOW -> short -- is what DECORRELATES from TP01. TP01 is long-flat; its
|
||||||
|
return is dominated by the bull beta. The SHORT leg of this breakout (go short when price breaks
|
||||||
|
DOWN out of yesterday's range) fires precisely in the down/choppy windows where TP01 sits flat or
|
||||||
|
bleeds, so the daily stream is ~orthogonal to TP01 (corr_full ~0.15, corr_hold ~0) while still
|
||||||
|
standing on its own in-sample (Sharpe ~1.2). The long-flat sibling (_ALLOW_SHORT=False) is also a
|
||||||
|
PASS but correlates ~0.64 to TP01 (it just re-rides the bull) -> a much smaller marginal uplift.
|
||||||
|
So the symmetric book is the honest slot-earner; the long-flat book is the redundant fallback.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHY THE WIDE BUFFER (k=0.30). A small/zero buffer fires on every noise pierce of yesterday's
|
||||||
|
range -> on BTC's choppy 2025-26 hold-out it whipsaws to a NEGATIVE hold-out. Widening the break
|
||||||
|
to 30% of the prior-day range past the level makes the break "decisive" (turtle-style filter):
|
||||||
|
it cuts the whipsaws, flips the BTC hold-out positive, AND lowers turnover. k=0.30 sits on a
|
||||||
|
plateau (k in 0.20..0.30, long-short, all hold positive both assets); below it BTC whipsaws.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CAUSAL: yesterday's high/low is computed from bars STRICTLY before today (a per-UTC-day rolling
|
||||||
|
max/min, shifted by one day). close[i] is compared to it -> the break is known AT close[i] and
|
||||||
|
held during bar i+1 by the evaluator. The vol-target uses trailing vol only. No full-sample fit.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HONEST VERDICT (scored 2026-06-21, hardened judge): abs=PASS, marginal=ADDS, earns_slot=TRUE.
|
||||||
|
The symmetric prior-day-range breakout is genuinely ORTHOGONAL to TP01 (corr_full 0.15, corr_hold
|
||||||
|
-0.01) -- the short leg is the source of the decorrelation -- with a strong standalone in-sample
|
||||||
|
Sharpe (~1.2), positive hold-out on BOTH assets (BTC ~0.92, ETH ~1.42), multi-cut persistent, and
|
||||||
|
a large blend uplift (w25 uplift_hold ~+0.68, uplift_full ~+0.33). Turnover ~50-56/yr (BTC) /
|
||||||
|
~43/yr (ETH) -- under the 120 cap, fee-survivable to 0.20% RT (full Sharpe stays > 0.5). It is NOT
|
||||||
|
flagged as a pure hedge (adds in both TP01-up and TP01-down regimes). CAVEAT: the short leg's
|
||||||
|
hold-out lift leans on the 2025-26 down/chop windows (a short-friendly regime); its in-sample
|
||||||
|
edge and multi-cut persistence are what keep it from being a single-window artifact.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
_ANCHOR_DAYS = 1 # range anchor = max/min over the prior _ANCHOR_DAYS UTC days (1 = yesterday)
|
||||||
|
_BUFFER_K = 0.30 # breakout buffer = k * prior-range (decisive-break filter; plateau 0.20-0.30)
|
||||||
|
_ALLOW_SHORT = True # SYMMETRIC book -> the short leg is what decorrelates from TP01 (slot-earner)
|
||||||
|
_VOL_TARGET = 0.20
|
||||||
|
_VOL_WIN_D = 30
|
||||||
|
_LEV_CAP = 2.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _prior_day_hilo(df: pd.DataFrame, anchor_days: int):
|
||||||
|
"""Prior-UTC-day HIGH and LOW (max/min over the previous `anchor_days` days), aligned to each
|
||||||
|
intraday bar, known causally.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
For every bar we need the max(high)/min(low) of the previous `anchor_days` WHOLE UTC days (a
|
||||||
|
level set at the midnight roll, fixed for the day). We group by calendar date, take per-day
|
||||||
|
high/low, roll over `anchor_days` and shift one day (strictly < today -> no peeking), then
|
||||||
|
broadcast back to the bars. anchor_days=1 is the literal 'yesterday's range' turtle."""
|
||||||
|
dt = pd.to_datetime(df["datetime"], utc=True)
|
||||||
|
day = dt.dt.floor("1D")
|
||||||
|
g = pd.DataFrame({"day": day.values,
|
||||||
|
"high": df["high"].values.astype(float),
|
||||||
|
"low": df["low"].values.astype(float)})
|
||||||
|
per_day = g.groupby("day").agg(dh=("high", "max"), dl=("low", "min"))
|
||||||
|
dh = per_day["dh"].rolling(anchor_days, min_periods=1).max().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
dl = per_day["dl"].rolling(anchor_days, min_periods=1).min().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
mapped = pd.DataFrame({"dh": dh, "dl": dl}).reindex(g["day"].values)
|
||||||
|
return mapped["dh"].values, mapped["dl"].values
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _breakout_direction(df: pd.DataFrame, anchor_days: int, buffer_k: float,
|
||||||
|
allow_short: bool) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
pdh, pdl = _prior_day_hilo(df, anchor_days)
|
||||||
|
rng = pdh - pdl
|
||||||
|
up_lvl = pdh + buffer_k * rng # decisive break above yesterday's high
|
||||||
|
dn_lvl = pdl - buffer_k * rng # decisive break below yesterday's low
|
||||||
|
n = len(c)
|
||||||
|
dirn = np.zeros(n)
|
||||||
|
cur = 0.0
|
||||||
|
low_state = -1.0 if allow_short else 0.0
|
||||||
|
for i in range(n):
|
||||||
|
if np.isfinite(up_lvl[i]) and c[i] > up_lvl[i]:
|
||||||
|
cur = 1.0
|
||||||
|
elif np.isfinite(dn_lvl[i]) and c[i] < dn_lvl[i]:
|
||||||
|
cur = low_state
|
||||||
|
dirn[i] = cur # carry 24/7 between decisive breaks
|
||||||
|
return dirn
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def target(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
direction = _breakout_direction(df, _ANCHOR_DAYS, _BUFFER_K, _ALLOW_SHORT)
|
||||||
|
pos = al.vol_target(direction, df, _VOL_TARGET, _VOL_WIN_D, _LEV_CAP)
|
||||||
|
return np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
|
||||||
|
d = al.get(a, "1h")
|
||||||
|
ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
|
||||||
|
print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
|
||||||
|
"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""agent_10_trend_quality_intra — GATE family, slug=trend_quality_intra (TF 1h).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ANGLE (assigned): use the intraday PATH QUALITY (efficiency ratio within the day) to GATE a
|
||||||
|
slow daily TSMOM trend. Hold the trend only when intraday price action is EFFICIENT (price
|
||||||
|
travels in a straight line -> a real directional regime), go flat/reduced when the path is
|
||||||
|
CHOPPY (price thrashes and retraces -> trend whipsaws and bleeds).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
EFFICIENCY RATIO (Kaufman). For a window of bars, ER = |net displacement| / sum(|bar moves|).
|
||||||
|
ER in [0,1]: 1 = perfectly straight move (every bar in the same direction), ~0 = lots of
|
||||||
|
back-and-forth with little net progress. We compute it from INTRADAY (hourly) bars over a
|
||||||
|
trailing multi-day window -> a genuinely intraday quantity (it sees the WITHIN-day path, not
|
||||||
|
just close-to-close). c2c vol (what TP01 already vol-targets on) CANNOT see this: two days with
|
||||||
|
the same |close-to-close| move can have wildly different intraday efficiency.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHY IT MIGHT ADD vs TP01. TP01 vol-targets by c2c 30d vol; it has NO notion of path quality.
|
||||||
|
The ER gate withholds risk in choppy, low-conviction tape (where a long-flat trend tends to get
|
||||||
|
chopped) and presses in clean trends. The information is intraday-native -> a chance (small) to
|
||||||
|
decorrelate from a pure c2c carrier. Realistically (lesson of agent_04): any sizer on the SAME
|
||||||
|
c2c-trend carrier stays corr ~0.9 to TP01 = REDUNDANT. We measure it honestly.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TURNOVER DISCIPLINE. The ER gate is (a) a SLOW window (multi-day), (b) heavily EMA-smoothed,
|
||||||
|
(c) a soft continuous multiplier (no on/off flip). The carrier is a slow 30/90/180d TSMOM that
|
||||||
|
flips ~monthly. So position DRIFTS, it does not flip -> turnover stays well under the 120/yr cap.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CAUSAL: ER at bar i uses bars 0..i (trailing window), standardized by an EXPANDING mean/std over
|
||||||
|
rows strictly before i (shift(1)). No full-sample stats. The evaluator holds position[i] during
|
||||||
|
bar i+1.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HONEST VERDICT (scored 2026-06-21): ADDS / abs=PASS / EARNS_SLOT=True. The decorrelation that
|
||||||
|
agent_04 could not find (its soft VR sizer stayed corr 0.965) came from TWO changes: (1) a HARD
|
||||||
|
gate that goes fully FLAT in confirmed chop (not a soft trim) -> removes specific trend days TP01
|
||||||
|
holds; (2) a MULTI-WINDOW efficiency blend (3/7/14d) so the kill only fires when chop is
|
||||||
|
confirmed across horizons (single-window gates capped uplift_hold ~0.04; the blend clears 0.05).
|
||||||
|
Final: corr->TP01 0.75 (hold 0.74), uplift_hold +0.060 / uplift_full +0.059 (w50: +0.147 hold!),
|
||||||
|
standalone full 0.90-1.37 / hold 0.54-0.61 both assets, in-sample Sharpe 1.55, residual alpha
|
||||||
|
0.68 Sharpe (+2.7%/yr, beta-to-TP01 only 0.36). Robust: multi-cut uplift POSITIVE every year
|
||||||
|
2020-2025 (+0.056..+0.097), survives drop-best-month jackknife (+0.03), plateau over kz/ramp/
|
||||||
|
smooth/expmin. TURNOVER ~13/yr (lowest in the wave; the gate suppresses small flips). Fees
|
||||||
|
survive to 0.20% RT (0.81). CAVEATS (honest): uplift_hold +0.06 is a MODEST absolute lift (the
|
||||||
|
real value is at higher blend weight, w50 +0.147); the 2026 stub cut is slightly negative; and
|
||||||
|
it is still a TP01-LED book (it shares the carrier) -> a SATELLITE that improves TP01 risk-
|
||||||
|
adjusted, not a standalone alpha. But it is the first intraday signal here to clear ALL hardened
|
||||||
|
gates with 6-year persistence -> it earns a (small) slot.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- carrier (TP01-style slow long-flat trend) ---
|
||||||
|
_HORIZONS_D = (30, 90, 180)
|
||||||
|
_VOL_TARGET = 0.20
|
||||||
|
_VOL_WIN_D = 30
|
||||||
|
_LEV_CAP = 2.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- intraday efficiency-ratio gate ---
|
||||||
|
# To DECORRELATE from a pure c2c-trend carrier (TP01) we must do what TP01 cannot: go fully
|
||||||
|
# FLAT in the worst-quality (choppiest) tape, not merely trim. A hard kill-switch on the
|
||||||
|
# bottom efficiency regime removes specific trend days TP01 holds -> the only path to corr<0.9.
|
||||||
|
# MULTI-WINDOW ER (like TP01's multi-horizon trend): a quality signal averaged over short/
|
||||||
|
# medium intraday-path windows is far more robust than any single window (single-window gates
|
||||||
|
# capped uplift_hold ~0.04; the blend lifts it past 0.05) and bites only when chop is
|
||||||
|
# confirmed across horizons -> fewer false kills -> turnover DROPS to ~12/yr.
|
||||||
|
_ER_WINS_D = (3, 7, 14) # trailing windows (days) for the efficiency-ratio blend (intraday)
|
||||||
|
_ER_EXP_MIN_D = 90 # min days before the expanding standardization is trusted
|
||||||
|
_ER_SMOOTH_D = 3 # EMA smoothing of the gate
|
||||||
|
_ER_KILL_Z = 0.2 # below this expanding-z of efficiency -> regime is "choppy", kill it
|
||||||
|
_ER_RAMP = 0.45 # ramp width -> the gate reaches 0 in genuinely choppy tape
|
||||||
|
_GATE_LO, _GATE_HI = 0.0, 1.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _tsmom_long_flat(c: np.ndarray, bpd: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
nbar = len(c)
|
||||||
|
acc = np.zeros(nbar)
|
||||||
|
cnt = np.zeros(nbar)
|
||||||
|
for d in _HORIZONS_D:
|
||||||
|
h = d * bpd
|
||||||
|
if h >= nbar:
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
s = np.full(nbar, np.nan)
|
||||||
|
s[h:] = np.sign(c[h:] / c[:-h] - 1.0)
|
||||||
|
v = np.isfinite(s)
|
||||||
|
acc[v] += s[v]
|
||||||
|
cnt[v] += 1
|
||||||
|
direction = np.zeros(nbar)
|
||||||
|
nz = cnt > 0
|
||||||
|
direction[nz] = acc[nz] / cnt[nz]
|
||||||
|
return np.clip(direction, 0, None) # long-flat
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _expanding_z(x: np.ndarray, min_obs: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Strictly causal expanding-standardized z-score (mean/std over rows 0..i-1)."""
|
||||||
|
s = pd.Series(x)
|
||||||
|
m = s.expanding(min_periods=min_obs).mean().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
sd = s.expanding(min_periods=min_obs).std().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
z = (s - m) / sd.replace(0, np.nan)
|
||||||
|
return z.values
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _efficiency_ratio(c: np.ndarray, win: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Kaufman efficiency ratio over a trailing `win`-bar window ending at i (causal).
|
||||||
|
ER = |c[i] - c[i-win]| / sum_{k=i-win+1..i} |c[k]-c[k-1]|. In [0,1]: 1=straight."""
|
||||||
|
n = len(c)
|
||||||
|
dabs = np.abs(np.diff(c, prepend=c[0])) # |bar move|, dabs[0]=0
|
||||||
|
path = pd.Series(dabs).rolling(win, min_periods=win).sum().values
|
||||||
|
net = np.full(n, np.nan)
|
||||||
|
net[win:] = np.abs(c[win:] - c[:-win])
|
||||||
|
er = np.where((path > 0) & np.isfinite(path), net / path, np.nan)
|
||||||
|
return er
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def target(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
bpd = al.bars_per_day(df)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- carrier: slow long-flat TSMOM, c2c vol-targeted (this IS the TP01 leg) ----
|
||||||
|
direction = _tsmom_long_flat(c, bpd)
|
||||||
|
base = al.vol_target(direction, df, _VOL_TARGET, _VOL_WIN_D, _LEV_CAP)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- intraday-only signal: multi-window efficiency ratio of the within-day path -----
|
||||||
|
# causal expanding-z of each window's ER, averaged: HIGH=efficient/trending, LOW=choppy.
|
||||||
|
erz_acc = np.zeros(len(c))
|
||||||
|
for wd in _ER_WINS_D:
|
||||||
|
er = _efficiency_ratio(c, wd * bpd)
|
||||||
|
erz_acc += np.nan_to_num(_expanding_z(er, _ER_EXP_MIN_D * bpd), nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
erz = erz_acc / len(_ER_WINS_D)
|
||||||
|
# HARD GATE: fully flat when the path is choppy (erz below kill threshold), full trend
|
||||||
|
# otherwise. A soft ramp around the threshold (reaches 0 in genuine chop), EMA-smoothed to
|
||||||
|
# keep turnover low. Going to 0 (not just trimming) is what decorrelates from TP01.
|
||||||
|
raw_gate = np.clip((erz - _ER_KILL_Z) / _ER_RAMP + 0.5, _GATE_LO, _GATE_HI)
|
||||||
|
gate = al.ema(raw_gate, _ER_SMOOTH_D * bpd)
|
||||||
|
gate = np.clip(gate, _GATE_LO, _GATE_HI)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
pos = base * gate
|
||||||
|
return np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
|
||||||
|
d = al.get(a, "1h")
|
||||||
|
ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
|
||||||
|
print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
|
||||||
|
"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""agent_11_weekly_seasonality — SEASON family, slug=weekly_seasonality (suggested TF 1h).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ANGLE (assigned): a CAUSAL EXPANDING day-of-week effect that tilts a long BTC/ETH exposure by
|
||||||
|
the historically-strong weekday. Default LONG (capture drift); on the SINGLE weekday whose
|
||||||
|
causal expanding mean return is the WEAKEST so far, flip SHORT instead. Low turnover: the
|
||||||
|
weekday identity is sticky, so realized turnover is ~65-86 round-trips/yr — under the fee wall.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
DESIGN PATH (honest): the literal "long-flat, flatten the weak weekday" version (just zero the
|
||||||
|
worst day) was NEUTRAL vs TP01 — it stays ~99% long, so it is buy&hold-in-disguise: corr 0.64,
|
||||||
|
hold-out uplift ~0.00. The piece that actually ADDS is SHORTING the worst weekday: it removes
|
||||||
|
that day's drift and injects a drift-free, trend-orthogonal return. A pure cross-weekday
|
||||||
|
long-short (orthogonal but no anchor) was tested and is NOISE OOS (causal long-short Sharpe IS
|
||||||
|
~0.1 / OOS -0.3..-1.4). The winning shape is "long the bull, EXCEPT short the worst weekday".
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHAT THE SIGNAL CONVERGES TO: the causally-weakest weekday locks onto THURSDAY almost
|
||||||
|
immediately and stays there for BOTH BTC and ETH, in-sample AND out-of-sample (>99% of bars).
|
||||||
|
So this is effectively "long, short Thursdays" — a Deribit-expiry-adjacent effect (weekly
|
||||||
|
options/futures settle Fri 08:00 UTC; pre-expiry de-risking pushes Thursday weak). The
|
||||||
|
cross-asset agreement + 7-year persistence is what separates it from a 1-of-7 multiple-testing
|
||||||
|
artifact. NB it is still discovered causally per bar — no full-sample weekday mean is used.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CAUSALITY: bias[i] for each weekday uses ONLY returns realized at bars 0..i-1 (an expanding
|
||||||
|
accumulator updated AFTER bias[i] is read, with a MIN_OBS warm-up). The worst-weekday identity
|
||||||
|
is re-decided causally every bar; result is invariant to MIN_OBS in {10,20,40,80}.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
VERDICT (hardened judge, 1h): abs_grade=PASS, marginal=ADDS, earns_slot=TRUE. Standalone full
|
||||||
|
Sharpe BTC 1.59 / ETH 1.42, hold-out 0.86 / 0.98 (both assets). vs TP01: corr 0.44 full /
|
||||||
|
0.32 hold, resid Sharpe 1.12, alpha/yr +0.21. Blend 0.75*TP01 + 0.25*cand: hold-out uplift
|
||||||
|
+0.40 (full +0.33), DD 11%. Multi-cut persistent (positive uplift EVERY year 2020-2026),
|
||||||
|
drop-best-month jackknife +0.25, not a hedge (pays in TP01-up AND TP01-down). Fee-survives to
|
||||||
|
0.30% RT (BTC 1.19 / ETH 1.11). HONEST CAVEAT: the whole edge is one weekday ("short Thursday")
|
||||||
|
— a single, expiry-driven calendar effect; if Deribit settlement mechanics change, monitor it.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Tunables (kept conservative for LOW turnover).
|
||||||
|
_MIN_OBS = 20 # need >=20 past samples of a weekday before trusting its causal bias
|
||||||
|
_WORST_N = 1 # tilt only the single weakest weekday (worstN=2 raised turnover & worse OOS)
|
||||||
|
_SHORT_FRAC = 1.0 # SHORT the worst weekday (vs merely flat): adds the orthogonal, drift-free
|
||||||
|
# piece that lowers TP01-corr and lifts the hold-out (0->1.0 tested)
|
||||||
|
_VOL_TARGET = 0.20
|
||||||
|
_VOL_WIN_D = 30
|
||||||
|
_LEV_CAP = 1.0 # long-1 default, short the worst weekday; vol-targeted, never levered
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _causal_dow_table(daily_r: np.ndarray, dow: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Expanding mean daily return per UTC day-of-week, strictly causal.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Returns table[i, k] = average of past realized daily returns on weekday k using bars
|
||||||
|
0..i-1 (the accumulator for the bar's OWN weekday is updated AFTER the row is read, so
|
||||||
|
a weekday stays NaN until it has > MIN_OBS prior observations). This is the causal
|
||||||
|
analogue of the full-sample 'mean return by weekday' table — it never peeks ahead.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
n = len(daily_r)
|
||||||
|
table = np.full((n, 7), np.nan)
|
||||||
|
csum = np.zeros(7)
|
||||||
|
ccnt = np.zeros(7)
|
||||||
|
for i in range(n):
|
||||||
|
for k in range(7):
|
||||||
|
if ccnt[k] >= _MIN_OBS:
|
||||||
|
table[i, k] = csum[k] / ccnt[k]
|
||||||
|
d = dow[i]
|
||||||
|
csum[d] += daily_r[i]
|
||||||
|
ccnt[d] += 1
|
||||||
|
return table
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def target(df):
|
||||||
|
"""Continuous long-flat position in [0,1] (vol-targeted): long by default, flat on the
|
||||||
|
historically-weakest weekday decided causally."""
|
||||||
|
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
r = al.simple_returns(c)
|
||||||
|
dow = pd.to_datetime(df["datetime"], utc=True).dt.dayofweek.values
|
||||||
|
table = _causal_dow_table(r, dow)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
n = len(df)
|
||||||
|
base = np.ones(n) # long by default (capture drift)
|
||||||
|
for i in range(n):
|
||||||
|
row = table[i]
|
||||||
|
if np.all(np.isnan(row)): # warm-up: no weekday trusted yet -> stay flat
|
||||||
|
base[i] = 0.0
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
# rank weekdays weakest-first; NaN weekdays treated as 'strong' (not tilted)
|
||||||
|
order = np.argsort(np.nan_to_num(row, nan=1e9))
|
||||||
|
worst = set(order[:_WORST_N].tolist())
|
||||||
|
if dow[i] in worst:
|
||||||
|
base[i] = -_SHORT_FRAC # short the historically-weakest weekday
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
pos = al.vol_target(base, df, _VOL_TARGET, _VOL_WIN_D, _LEV_CAP)
|
||||||
|
return np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
|
||||||
|
d = al.get(a, "1h")
|
||||||
|
ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
|
||||||
|
print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
|
||||||
|
"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,159 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""agent_12_close_location — STRUCT family, slug=close_location (suggested TF 1h).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ANGLE (assigned): where price closes WITHIN the day range — the close-location-value
|
||||||
|
CLV = (close - low) / (high - low) in [0,1] — predicts next-day direction. CLV near 1 = bulls
|
||||||
|
close at the highs (buying pressure / accumulation); near 0 = bears close at the lows
|
||||||
|
(distribution / weakness). One decision/day -> naturally low turnover.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHAT THE DATA ACTUALLY SAYS (explored before designing — honesty first):
|
||||||
|
* RAW single-day CLV is mildly MEAN-REVERTING, not continuation: low CLV (closed near low)
|
||||||
|
=> HIGHER next-day return (+26bp BTC / +35bp ETH), high CLV => lower (+3bp / +9bp). The
|
||||||
|
quintile gradient is monotone but the effect is weak (corr ~-0.03).
|
||||||
|
* A pure CLV mean-reversion book (buy weak closes / fade strong closes) is anti-trend: it has
|
||||||
|
a NEGATIVE full Sharpe (-0.47), only a lucky-2025 hold-out (candH +0.59), and DILUTES the
|
||||||
|
full blend (-0.45). It fails the in-sample-edge gate -> NOISE/regime-luck. NOT this.
|
||||||
|
* A persistent-CLV CONTINUATION book (long when closes have been strong for weeks) is just a
|
||||||
|
slow trend proxy: good full (~0.9) but NEGATIVE hold-out (broke in 2025 like buy&hold) and
|
||||||
|
~redundant with TP01. NOT this either.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
THE DESIGN THAT EARNS A SLOT (agent_10's lesson, applied to CLV): use CLV as a HARD FLAT-GATE on
|
||||||
|
the TP01 carrier, NOT a soft sizer. A soft CLV multiplier stays corr ~0.93-0.96 to TP01 =
|
||||||
|
REDUNDANT. To decorrelate we must do what a c2c trend CANNOT: go fully FLAT in the regime where
|
||||||
|
closes are persistently WEAK (bearish CLV / distribution at the top), and ride the trend at full
|
||||||
|
size when closes confirm it. Going to 0 (not trimming) removes specific trend days TP01 holds
|
||||||
|
through that turn out badly -> corr drops to ~0.82 and the blend lift is real.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
carrier = TP01-style long-flat 30/90/180d TSMOM, c2c vol-targeted (this IS the TP01 leg)
|
||||||
|
CLV gate = multi-window (3/5/10d EMA of CLV) -> causal EXPANDING-z -> averaged -> a hard ramp
|
||||||
|
that reaches 0 when CLV-z is in its bottom regime (kill_z=0.3), EMA-smoothed.
|
||||||
|
Multi-window (like TP01's multi-horizon trend) is more robust than any single span
|
||||||
|
and bites only when weak-closes are confirmed across horizons -> fewer false kills.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHY IT'S INTRADAY-NATIVE (not derivable from c2c): two days with the SAME close-to-close move can
|
||||||
|
have wildly different CLV — one closed at the high after dipping (strong), one faded from the high
|
||||||
|
(weak). c2c vol (what TP01 targets on) is blind to it. The gate withholds risk in
|
||||||
|
distribution/weak-close tape and presses in clean accumulation.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CAUSAL: CLV[i] uses high/low/close[i] (all <= close[i]); the expanding-z standardizes by mean/std
|
||||||
|
over rows STRICTLY before i (shift(1)); the gate is a pure function of past bars. No full-sample
|
||||||
|
calendar/quantile fit. The evaluator holds position[i] during bar i+1 (no leak by construction).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TURNOVER: ~11/yr (the carrier flips ~monthly; the gate is a slow, smoothed, multi-day quantity)
|
||||||
|
-> far under the 120/yr fee cap; survives the 0.20% RT fee sweep.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HONEST VERDICT (scored 2026-06-21 @ tf=1d): ADDS / abs=PASS / EARNS_SLOT=True.
|
||||||
|
corr->TP01 0.815 (hold 0.734), beta 0.468, residual Sharpe 0.536 (+2.2%/yr alpha beyond trend).
|
||||||
|
uplift_hold +0.067 / uplift_full +0.045 ; standalone BTC full 1.10/hold 0.59, ETH 1.16/hold 0.61.
|
||||||
|
in-sample standalone Sharpe 1.50 (stands on its own, not a lucky window). turnover ~11/yr (BTC) /
|
||||||
|
~8/yr (ETH); fees survive to 0.20% RT (full 1.04). Multi-cut PERSISTENT: the flat-gate lift is
|
||||||
|
positive at EVERY yearly cut 2020-2025 (+0.041..+0.079). is_hedge=False (it adds in BOTH TP01-up
|
||||||
|
+0.029 and TP01-down +0.069). Plateau: kill_z 0.35..0.60 all give clean-year uplift ~+0.08.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CAVEATS (honest — fees usually win, and they nearly did here):
|
||||||
|
* The HOLD-OUT lift is concentrated: dropping 2025-10 alone takes the hold-out uplift from
|
||||||
|
+0.062 to ~0 -> the drop-one-month jackknife clears by a HAIR (+0.001). The in-sample edge and
|
||||||
|
the 6-year multi-cut persistence are the real backbone; the 2025-26 hold-out is short (537d)
|
||||||
|
and one-month-leaning. Treat as a SATELLITE, forward-monitor the hold-out, do NOT over-weight.
|
||||||
|
* It is a TP01-LED book (shares the carrier; corr 0.82) -> it IMPROVES TP01 risk-adjusted via a
|
||||||
|
flat-gate TP01 cannot see (CLV/within-day close location), it is NOT a standalone alpha.
|
||||||
|
* The mean-reversion reading of CLV (buy weak closes) was REJECTED: negative full Sharpe, lucky-
|
||||||
|
2025-only -> NOISE. The continuation-as-gate framing is what survives the hardened judge.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- carrier (TP01-style slow long-flat trend) ---
|
||||||
|
_HORIZONS_D = (30, 90, 180)
|
||||||
|
_VOL_TARGET = 0.20
|
||||||
|
_VOL_WIN_D = 30
|
||||||
|
_LEV_CAP = 2.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- close-location-value (CLV) flat-gate ---
|
||||||
|
# Multi-window EMA of CLV -> expanding-z -> averaged -> hard ramp to 0 in the weak-close regime.
|
||||||
|
_CLV_SPANS_D = (3, 5, 10) # EMA spans (days) for the multi-window CLV blend
|
||||||
|
_EXP_MIN_D = 180 # min days before the expanding standardization is trusted
|
||||||
|
_KILL_Z = 0.45 # below this expanding-z of CLV -> closes are weak -> kill exposure.
|
||||||
|
# 0.45 = the plateau CENTER (kz 0.35..0.60 all give clean-year uplift
|
||||||
|
# ~+0.08, hold uplift ~+0.06, corr ~0.81); 0.45 is the lowest-corr point
|
||||||
|
# that also clears the drop-one-month jackknife (see HONEST VERDICT).
|
||||||
|
_RAMP = 0.5 # ramp width -> gate reaches 0 in confirmed weak-close tape
|
||||||
|
_SMOOTH_D = 3 # EMA smoothing of the gate (keeps turnover low)
|
||||||
|
_GATE_LO, _GATE_HI = 0.0, 1.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _tsmom_long_flat(c: np.ndarray, bpd: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
nbar = len(c)
|
||||||
|
acc = np.zeros(nbar)
|
||||||
|
cnt = np.zeros(nbar)
|
||||||
|
for d in _HORIZONS_D:
|
||||||
|
h = d * bpd
|
||||||
|
if h >= nbar:
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
s = np.full(nbar, np.nan)
|
||||||
|
s[h:] = np.sign(c[h:] / c[:-h] - 1.0)
|
||||||
|
v = np.isfinite(s)
|
||||||
|
acc[v] += s[v]
|
||||||
|
cnt[v] += 1
|
||||||
|
direction = np.zeros(nbar)
|
||||||
|
nz = cnt > 0
|
||||||
|
direction[nz] = acc[nz] / cnt[nz]
|
||||||
|
return np.clip(direction, 0, None) # long-flat
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _expanding_z(x: np.ndarray, min_obs: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Strictly causal expanding-standardized z-score (mean/std over rows 0..i-1)."""
|
||||||
|
s = pd.Series(x)
|
||||||
|
m = s.expanding(min_periods=min_obs).mean().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
sd = s.expanding(min_periods=min_obs).std().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
z = (s - m) / sd.replace(0, np.nan)
|
||||||
|
return z.values
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _clv(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Close-location-value in [0,1]: where close sits within the bar's high-low range.
|
||||||
|
1 = closed at the high (max buying pressure), 0 = closed at the low. 0.5 if range is 0."""
|
||||||
|
h, l, c = df["high"].values.astype(float), df["low"].values.astype(float), df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
rng = h - l
|
||||||
|
safe = np.where(rng > 0, rng, 1.0) # avoid 0/0 on flat (high==low) bars
|
||||||
|
return np.where(rng > 0, (c - l) / safe, 0.5) # 0.5 (neutral) when the bar has no range
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def target(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
bpd = al.bars_per_day(df)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- carrier: slow long-flat TSMOM, c2c vol-targeted (this IS the TP01 leg) ----
|
||||||
|
direction = _tsmom_long_flat(c, bpd)
|
||||||
|
base = al.vol_target(direction, df, _VOL_TARGET, _VOL_WIN_D, _LEV_CAP)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- intraday-native signal: multi-window CLV, causal expanding-z, averaged -----
|
||||||
|
clv = _clv(df)
|
||||||
|
zacc = np.zeros(len(c))
|
||||||
|
for sp in _CLV_SPANS_D:
|
||||||
|
zacc += np.nan_to_num(_expanding_z(al.ema(clv, sp * bpd), _EXP_MIN_D * bpd), nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
clv_z = zacc / len(_CLV_SPANS_D)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# HARD FLAT-GATE: full trend when closes confirm (CLV-z high), fully FLAT when closes are
|
||||||
|
# persistently weak (CLV-z below kill, = distribution). A soft ramp reaching 0 in confirmed
|
||||||
|
# weak-close tape, EMA-smoothed to keep turnover low. Going to 0 is what decorrelates from TP01.
|
||||||
|
raw_gate = np.clip((clv_z - _KILL_Z) / _RAMP + 0.5, _GATE_LO, _GATE_HI)
|
||||||
|
gate = al.ema(raw_gate, _SMOOTH_D * bpd)
|
||||||
|
gate = np.clip(gate, _GATE_LO, _GATE_HI)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
pos = base * gate
|
||||||
|
return np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
|
||||||
|
d = al.get(a, "1d")
|
||||||
|
ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
|
||||||
|
print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
|
||||||
|
"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,146 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""agent_13_range_compression_intra — STRUCT family, slug=range_compression_intra (TF 1h).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ANGLE (assigned): intraday RANGE COMPRESSION (narrow-range / low intraday vol regime) precedes
|
||||||
|
an EXPANSION; position in the breakout DIRECTION next session. Gated, low turnover.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
THE INTRADAY INFORMATION. A 1d bar only sees close-to-close. The intraday feed lets us measure
|
||||||
|
how COMPRESSED the recent path is -- the Parkinson high-low range relative to its own causal
|
||||||
|
history. "Compression" (a coil) is a *volatility* statement, not a directional one; the classic
|
||||||
|
NR / squeeze idea is that a coiled market RELEASES, and the release tends to RUN in the breakout
|
||||||
|
direction. So the design is two-stage:
|
||||||
|
1. COMPRESSION GATE (vol regime, intraday-native): arm only when the trailing Parkinson range
|
||||||
|
sits in the LOW tail of its causal expanding distribution (a coil). This is the part a pure
|
||||||
|
1d Donchian cannot express -- it needs the intra-bar high-low path, standardized causally.
|
||||||
|
2. BREAKOUT DIRECTION (when armed): the first decisive pierce of the recent channel sets the
|
||||||
|
sign (+1 break up / -1 break down). We then CARRY that direction (stop-and-stay) until the
|
||||||
|
opposite decisive break -- NOT flat-at-day-end -- so turnover is the number of genuine
|
||||||
|
regime changes (~40-80/yr), not a daily round-trip (~500/yr fee-death).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHY SYMMETRIC (long-short). Lesson of this fleet (agent_04 vs agent_09): a LONG-FLAT overlay on a
|
||||||
|
c2c-trend carrier just re-rides the bull beta -> corr ~0.9-0.96 to TP01 -> REDUNDANT. The slot is
|
||||||
|
earned by the SHORT leg: going short on a decisive DOWN-break out of a coil fires in the
|
||||||
|
down/choppy windows where TP01 sits flat, which is what DECORRELATES the daily stream from a
|
||||||
|
long-flat TSMOM book. So this is a SYMMETRIC breakout, gated by compression.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHY THE COMPRESSION GATE (vs agent_09's plain prior-day breakout). agent_09 breaks out of
|
||||||
|
yesterday's range unconditionally. Here we add the coil filter: only the breakouts that follow a
|
||||||
|
genuine VOL CONTRACTION count. The hypothesis is that post-compression breakouts have a cleaner
|
||||||
|
follow-through (less whipsaw) than breakouts from an already-expanded range. The gate also CUTS
|
||||||
|
turnover (we are armed a fraction of the time) and is the intraday-native edge.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
THE FEE WALL. The literal "trade every NR7 breakout, flat at close" churns. We make it
|
||||||
|
low-turnover by (a) carrying the direction 24/7 between decisive breaks (stop-and-stay), (b) a
|
||||||
|
wide decisive-break buffer (k * channel range) that filters noise pierces, (c) vol-targeting the
|
||||||
|
carried direction so the position drifts rather than jumps. Target turnover < ~80/yr.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CAUSAL: the compression z-score uses an EXPANDING mean/std shifted by 1 (excludes bar i). The
|
||||||
|
breakout channel uses the prior `chan_win` bars STRICTLY before i (donchian shift(1)). close[i]
|
||||||
|
is compared to levels known at i; the evaluator holds position[i] during bar i+1. No full-sample
|
||||||
|
fit, no shift(-k).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HONEST VERDICT (scored 2026-06-21, hardened judge). abs=PASS, marginal=ADDS, earns_slot=TRUE.
|
||||||
|
Config arm=-0.25 / chan=3d / park=2d / buf=0.20 sits on a PLATEAU (buf 0.10-0.20 and expmin
|
||||||
|
60-120 all keep slot=True/PASS). Standalone: BTC full 1.04 / hold 0.93, ETH full 0.51 / hold
|
||||||
|
1.79 (ETH full is the weak leg -- 2022/2024 down-years bite the symmetric book -- but its hold-out
|
||||||
|
is the strongest of all). In-sample standalone Sharpe 0.70 (>=0.5 edge). corr to TP01 full 0.42 /
|
||||||
|
hold 0.20 -- DECORRELATED via the short leg, as in agent_09. Multi-cut persistent (positive uplift
|
||||||
|
EVERY year 2020-2026: 0.09->0.22 pre-hold-out, 0.75 in 2025), jackknife drop-best-month +0.61,
|
||||||
|
clean-year (2025) uplift +0.26. NOT a hedge (uplift in TP01-up +0.15 dominates TP01-down +0.02).
|
||||||
|
Blend 0.75*TP01+0.25*a13: full 1.30->1.35 (uplift +0.055), HOLD-OUT 0.31->1.05 (uplift +0.75),
|
||||||
|
DD->11.8%. Turnover 10.7-13.4/yr (way under the 120 cap), fee-survivable to 0.20% RT (full Sh
|
||||||
|
0.49). HONEST CAVEATS: (1) full-sample blend uplift is small (+0.055) -- the value is hold-out
|
||||||
|
risk-diversification, not standing return; (2) the 2026 multi-cut figure (3.57) is a SHORT window
|
||||||
|
(few months) and overstated -- the trustworthy persistence is 2020-2025; (3) the compression GATE
|
||||||
|
is real intraday-native information but most of the marginal lift comes from the SYMMETRIC short
|
||||||
|
leg firing in the 2022/2025-26 down-chop, a short-favorable regime -- the in-sample edge + 6-year
|
||||||
|
multi-cut persistence are what keep it from being a single-window artifact. A genuine, low-turnover
|
||||||
|
slot-earner whose alpha is hold-out decorrelation, not absolute return.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- compression gate (intraday-native vol regime) ---
|
||||||
|
_PARK_WIN_D = 2 # trailing window (days) for the Parkinson range estimate
|
||||||
|
_COMP_EXP_MIN_D = 90 # min days before the expanding standardization is trusted
|
||||||
|
_COMP_Z_ARM = -0.25 # arm the breakout only when range-z <= this (a coil; <0 = below avg)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- breakout channel (the release direction) ---
|
||||||
|
_CHAN_WIN_D = 3 # Donchian channel = high/low over the prior _CHAN_WIN_D days
|
||||||
|
_BUFFER_K = 0.20 # decisive-break buffer = k * channel range (filters noise pierces; plateau 0.10-0.20)
|
||||||
|
_ALLOW_SHORT = True # SYMMETRIC -> the short leg decorrelates from TP01
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- sizing ---
|
||||||
|
_VOL_TARGET = 0.20
|
||||||
|
_VOL_WIN_D = 30
|
||||||
|
_LEV_CAP = 2.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _expanding_z(x: np.ndarray, min_obs: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Strictly causal expanding-standardized z-score (mean/std over rows 0..i-1).
|
||||||
|
expanding().shift(1) -> bar i standardized by stats EXCLUDING i. NaN until min_obs."""
|
||||||
|
s = pd.Series(x)
|
||||||
|
m = s.expanding(min_periods=min_obs).mean().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
sd = s.expanding(min_periods=min_obs).std().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
return ((s - m) / sd.replace(0, np.nan)).values
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _parkinson_vol(df: pd.DataFrame, win: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Trailing Parkinson high-low range vol (annualization-free; we only use its z-score)."""
|
||||||
|
hi = df["high"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
lo = df["low"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
park = (np.log(np.where((hi > 0) & (lo > 0), hi / lo, 1.0))) ** 2 / (4.0 * np.log(2.0))
|
||||||
|
return np.sqrt(pd.Series(park).rolling(win, min_periods=win).mean().values)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _compression_armed(df: pd.DataFrame, bpd: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Boolean per-bar: is the market COILED (range in the low causal tail)?"""
|
||||||
|
pvol = _parkinson_vol(df, _PARK_WIN_D * bpd)
|
||||||
|
z = _expanding_z(pvol, _COMP_EXP_MIN_D * bpd)
|
||||||
|
z = np.nan_to_num(z, nan=99.0) # un-armed before the gate is trusted
|
||||||
|
return z <= _COMP_Z_ARM
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _gated_breakout_direction(df: pd.DataFrame, bpd: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Carried (stop-and-stay) symmetric breakout, but a NEW direction is only TAKEN when the
|
||||||
|
market was COILED at the moment of the decisive pierce. Between takes we carry the last dir."""
|
||||||
|
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
armed = _compression_armed(df, bpd)
|
||||||
|
win = _CHAN_WIN_D * bpd
|
||||||
|
hi_chan, lo_chan = al.donchian(df, win) # prior-window high/low, shifted -> causal
|
||||||
|
rng = hi_chan - lo_chan
|
||||||
|
up_lvl = hi_chan + _BUFFER_K * rng
|
||||||
|
dn_lvl = lo_chan - _BUFFER_K * rng
|
||||||
|
low_state = -1.0 if _ALLOW_SHORT else 0.0
|
||||||
|
n = len(c)
|
||||||
|
dirn = np.zeros(n)
|
||||||
|
cur = 0.0
|
||||||
|
for i in range(n):
|
||||||
|
if armed[i]:
|
||||||
|
if np.isfinite(up_lvl[i]) and c[i] > up_lvl[i]:
|
||||||
|
cur = 1.0
|
||||||
|
elif np.isfinite(dn_lvl[i]) and c[i] < dn_lvl[i]:
|
||||||
|
cur = low_state
|
||||||
|
dirn[i] = cur # carry 24/7 between coiled-breakout takes
|
||||||
|
return dirn
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def target(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
bpd = al.bars_per_day(df)
|
||||||
|
direction = _gated_breakout_direction(df, bpd)
|
||||||
|
pos = al.vol_target(direction, df, _VOL_TARGET, _VOL_WIN_D, _LEV_CAP)
|
||||||
|
return np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
|
||||||
|
d = al.get(a, "1h")
|
||||||
|
ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
|
||||||
|
print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
|
||||||
|
"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,155 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""agent_14_multi_session_momentum — MOMO family, slug=multi_session_momentum (TF 1h).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ANGLE [family=momo, slug=multi_session_momentum]: momentum measured across the last few
|
||||||
|
SESSIONS (8h UTC blocks: Asia 0-7 / EU 8-15 / US 16-23), not calendar-day closes. A slow,
|
||||||
|
low-turnover intraday-informed trend. Question: is it ORTHOGONAL to daily TSMOM (TP01)?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHY SESSIONS (intraday-native, not c2c): TP01 sees only close-to-close over 30/90/180 days.
|
||||||
|
A multi-session momentum aggregates the SIGN of the move over the last K sessions (K*8h
|
||||||
|
blocks) -> it decides at a SESSION boundary using a window measured in sessions. Two regimes
|
||||||
|
with the same c2c drift can have very different session-level coherence: a market that grinds
|
||||||
|
up every session (all-3-sessions-green) is a different beast from one that closes up only via
|
||||||
|
violent US-session spikes while bleeding in Asia. The session-momentum count of how MANY of
|
||||||
|
the last K sessions were green is information c2c trend cannot represent.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
LONG-SHORT (the decorrelation lever): TP01 is long-FLAT. To not be redundant trend-beta we
|
||||||
|
run LONG-SHORT — long when the session-momentum consensus is strongly up, SHORT when it is
|
||||||
|
strongly down, flat in the mushy middle. The short leg is exactly the part TP01 structurally
|
||||||
|
cannot hold, so it is the source of orthogonal return (resid alpha) the marginal judge rewards.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TURNOVER DISCIPLINE: the decision updates only at SESSION boundaries (3x/day, not 24x), the
|
||||||
|
consensus is a multi-session VOTE with a dead-band (must flip a strong-majority threshold to
|
||||||
|
change sign), and the position is vol-targeted+EMA-smoothed. A K-session lookback of several
|
||||||
|
days flips on the order of monthly -> well under the 120/yr cap.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CAUSAL: session-return at boundary uses bars 0..i; the consensus and its expanding
|
||||||
|
standardization use data strictly < i (shift). No full-sample calendar fit. position[i] held
|
||||||
|
during bar i+1 by the evaluator.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HONEST VERDICT (scored 2026-06-21): ADDS / abs=PASS / EARNS_SLOT=True. Final config
|
||||||
|
lb=(21,45,90) sessions, smooth=5, asymmetric long-short (long z>+0.6, short de-risked 0.6x at
|
||||||
|
z<-1.1). Both assets standalone full Sharpe 1.24(BTC)/1.35(ETH), hold-out 0.44/1.24, maxDD
|
||||||
|
~14-16%, turnover ~20-29/yr (well under the 120 cap; fees survive to 0.20% RT -> 1.14).
|
||||||
|
MARGINAL vs TP01: corr 0.573 (hold 0.40), beta 0.61, RESIDUAL alpha Sharpe 0.93 (+9.9%/yr) ->
|
||||||
|
real orthogonal content, not pure trend-beta. Blend uplift_hold +0.26 at w25 (TP01 hold
|
||||||
|
0.31->0.57), +0.46 at w50 (DD cut to 10.8%). Robust: multi-cut uplift POSITIVE every year
|
||||||
|
2020-2026 (+0.10..+0.26), survives drop-best-month jackknife (+0.149), plateau over smooth
|
||||||
|
4-6 / eL 0.5-0.6 / eS 1.0-1.2 (all neighbors ADDS+robust). In-sample standalone Sharpe 1.64
|
||||||
|
(easily clears the 0.5 in-sample-edge bar). HOW IT GETS ORTHOGONAL where pure long-flat
|
||||||
|
overlays stay REDUNDANT: (1) it is LONG-SHORT (TP01 is long-flat) -> the short leg is return
|
||||||
|
TP01 structurally cannot hold; (2) the carrier is SESSION-momentum (a multi-session sign vote
|
||||||
|
at 8h boundaries), not c2c trend. CAVEATS (honest): corr 0.57 means it shares trend-beta -> a
|
||||||
|
TP01-CORRELATED satellite, not an independent alpha; the hedge-yearly-corr is -0.84 (it pays
|
||||||
|
MORE when TP01 is weak) though it still pays +0.11 when TP01 is up (so not a pure hedge); and
|
||||||
|
the 2026 multi-cut spike (1.97) is a tiny stub window -> lean on the 1.64 in-sample Sharpe, not
|
||||||
|
the stub. Earns a (satellite) slot: low-turnover, intraday-native, persistent, fee-proof.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- session structure ---
|
||||||
|
_SESS_HOURS = 8 # 8h UTC blocks -> 3 sessions/day
|
||||||
|
# multi-session momentum lookbacks (in SESSIONS). 21 sess = 7 days, 45 = 15 days, 90 = 30 days.
|
||||||
|
# We DROP the 3-day lookback: at session frequency it is the noise leg that drives the 2025
|
||||||
|
# BTC chop whipsaw. A slower multi-session vote (1w/2w/1m) is the low-turnover sweet spot.
|
||||||
|
_SESS_LOOKBACKS = (21, 45, 90)
|
||||||
|
_VOL_TARGET = 0.20
|
||||||
|
_VOL_WIN_D = 30
|
||||||
|
_LEV_CAP = 2.0
|
||||||
|
# ASYMMETRIC dead-band: crypto has upward drift, so a symmetric short threshold over-shorts
|
||||||
|
# choppy sideways tape (2025 BTC bled -13% on it). We require a LOWER bar to go long than to
|
||||||
|
# go short -> the short leg only fires on STRONG, confirmed session-momentum down-consensus
|
||||||
|
# (real downtrends, where the orthogonal short return is real), not on every dip.
|
||||||
|
_ENTER_LONG_Z = 0.6
|
||||||
|
_ENTER_SHORT_Z = 1.1 # short only on strongly-confirmed down-consensus
|
||||||
|
_SHORT_SCALE = 0.6 # de-risk the short leg (it's the noisy, drift-fighting side)
|
||||||
|
_SMOOTH_SESS = 5 # EMA smoothing in sessions (~1.7 days) -> fewer chop flips
|
||||||
|
# (smooth=5,eL=0.6 sits in the center of the robust plateau:
|
||||||
|
# all neighbors ADDS/robust, BTC hold 0.44, lowest corr/turn)
|
||||||
|
_EXP_MIN_SESS = 90 # min sessions before expanding standardization is trusted
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _session_index(dt: pd.Series) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Map each bar to a monotonically increasing SESSION number (0,1,2,...).
|
||||||
|
A session is an 8h UTC block; session boundaries are at hour 0/8/16."""
|
||||||
|
# absolute hours since epoch // 8 -> unique session id, monotone increasing
|
||||||
|
epoch_ns = dt.values.astype("datetime64[ns]").astype("int64")
|
||||||
|
epoch_h = epoch_ns // 3_600_000_000_000 # ns -> hours
|
||||||
|
return (epoch_h // _SESS_HOURS).astype("int64")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _expanding_z(x: np.ndarray, min_obs: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
s = pd.Series(x)
|
||||||
|
m = s.expanding(min_periods=min_obs).mean().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
sd = s.expanding(min_periods=min_obs).std().shift(1)
|
||||||
|
return ((s - m) / sd.replace(0, np.nan)).values
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def target(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
dt = pd.to_datetime(df["datetime"], utc=True)
|
||||||
|
sess_id = _session_index(dt)
|
||||||
|
n = len(c)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- aggregate to SESSION closes (last bar of each session = its close) -------------
|
||||||
|
# group bars by session id, take the close of the LAST bar in each session.
|
||||||
|
g = pd.DataFrame({"sid": sess_id, "close": c, "row": np.arange(n)})
|
||||||
|
last = g.groupby("sid", sort=True).agg(close=("close", "last"), row=("row", "last"))
|
||||||
|
sclose = last["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
srow = last["row"].values.astype(int) # the bar index where each session closes
|
||||||
|
ns = len(sclose)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- multi-session momentum consensus (sign vote over several session-lookbacks) -----
|
||||||
|
sret = np.zeros(ns)
|
||||||
|
sret[1:] = sclose[1:] / sclose[:-1] - 1.0
|
||||||
|
consensus = np.zeros(ns)
|
||||||
|
cnt = np.zeros(ns)
|
||||||
|
for L in _SESS_LOOKBACKS:
|
||||||
|
if L >= ns:
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
# momentum over last L sessions = sign of cumulative return across the window
|
||||||
|
mom = np.full(ns, np.nan)
|
||||||
|
mom[L:] = np.sign(sclose[L:] / sclose[:-L] - 1.0)
|
||||||
|
v = np.isfinite(mom)
|
||||||
|
consensus[v] += mom[v]
|
||||||
|
cnt[v] += 1
|
||||||
|
nz = cnt > 0
|
||||||
|
consensus[nz] = consensus[nz] / cnt[nz] # in [-1,1]: session-momentum consensus
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# expanding-standardize the consensus (causal) so the dead-band is regime-relative
|
||||||
|
cz = _expanding_z(consensus, _EXP_MIN_SESS)
|
||||||
|
cz = np.nan_to_num(cz, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
cz = al.ema(cz, _SMOOTH_SESS)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# asymmetric long-short side: long if z>+enter_long, short (de-risked) if z<-enter_short
|
||||||
|
side_s = np.where(cz > _ENTER_LONG_Z, 1.0,
|
||||||
|
np.where(cz < -_ENTER_SHORT_Z, -_SHORT_SCALE, 0.0))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- map the per-session side back onto the bar grid (held until next session close) -
|
||||||
|
# side is decided at a session CLOSE (srow); it applies from that bar forward until the
|
||||||
|
# next session closes. Use a step function placed at srow, forward-filled.
|
||||||
|
side_bar = np.zeros(n)
|
||||||
|
side_bar[srow] = side_s
|
||||||
|
# forward-fill the side between session closes (positions known at decision bar)
|
||||||
|
side_ser = pd.Series(np.where(np.isin(np.arange(n), srow), side_bar, np.nan))
|
||||||
|
side_ser.iloc[0] = 0.0
|
||||||
|
side_bar = side_ser.ffill().fillna(0.0).values
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# --- vol-target the long-short direction (TP01-style sizing, but L/S) ----------------
|
||||||
|
pos = al.vol_target(side_bar, df, _VOL_TARGET, _VOL_WIN_D, _LEV_CAP)
|
||||||
|
return np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
|
||||||
|
d = al.get(a, "1h")
|
||||||
|
ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
|
||||||
|
print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
|
||||||
|
"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""agent_15_intraday_meanrev_gated — REVERT family, slug=intraday_meanrev_gated (TF 1h).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ASSIGNED ANGLE: short-horizon mean reversion, but ONLY after a causal EXTREME (RSI / z beyond a
|
||||||
|
high threshold) AND only a few times/week. Keep turnover under ~120/yr. Fade gently.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHAT THE 1h DATA ACTUALLY SAYS (measured, honest — see the probes in the diary). The naive
|
||||||
|
reading of this angle dies on the data, and it dies the SAME way the 15m version did (agent_06):
|
||||||
|
* A 1h RSI EXTREME (rsi14 <= 15 or >= 85) is a MOMENTUM / breakout event, not a reversion
|
||||||
|
event. Fading it has the WRONG SIGN: over the next 4-24 bars the price CONTINUES. The fade
|
||||||
|
P&L is strongly NEGATIVE (BTC fade_mean -45..-110 bp, t=-2..-4 at the deep tail). The deeper
|
||||||
|
the RSI threshold, the worse the fade. So "fade the RSI extreme" is a clean negative at 1h.
|
||||||
|
* The only revert mechanic that exists at this horizon is the LEVEL OVERSHOOT (close far from a
|
||||||
|
multi-day EMA, standardized by a causal sigma). But at 1h even THAT is weak and sign-unstable:
|
||||||
|
across H in {8,12,24,48} and k in {1.5..2.5} the fade flips sign by horizon (BTC continues at
|
||||||
|
H=12/48, mildly reverts at H=8/24; ETH mildly reverts), and the conditional t-stats are mostly
|
||||||
|
< 2. The clean, strong tail-fade that earned a 15m slot (agent_06) does NOT reproduce at 1h:
|
||||||
|
1h aggregates away the micro-overshoot that mean-reverts and leaves the macro-overshoot that
|
||||||
|
trends (which is exactly TP01's domain, with the wrong sign for a fade).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So this agent implements the angle FAITHFULLY (gated, rare, gentle level-overshoot fade) and
|
||||||
|
reports the honest result. It is the reverting flavor (level overshoot, not the RSI-bar spike),
|
||||||
|
fired only at the extreme tail (rare => low turnover), held a few hours, then flat.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CAUSAL: the per-bar return sigma is a trailing rolling std SHIFTED by 1 (excludes the current
|
||||||
|
bar); the EMA uses only past bars (adjust=False). Entry is decided at close[i] and held for a
|
||||||
|
fixed H bars, then flat. No shift(-k), no full-sample stats. The evaluator holds position[i]
|
||||||
|
during bar i+1, so there is no leak by construction.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
SCORED RESULT (2026-06-21, hardened marginal judge) — EARNS_SLOT = FALSE (a clean NEGATIVE):
|
||||||
|
config k=2.0, H=24, ema(1,2,3): abs_grade=FAIL, marginal_verdict=NOISE.
|
||||||
|
turnover ~19/yr (well under the 120 cap — the gate is genuinely rare),
|
||||||
|
cand_insample_sharpe ~+0.10 (<< the 0.5 bar => NO standalone edge: BTC overshoots CONTINUE,
|
||||||
|
ETH barely reverts; the fade is ~flat in-sample at best, negative on the BTC leg),
|
||||||
|
abs_full_sharpe ~+0.04 / abs_hold_sharpe -1.19, fee020_full_sharpe ~-0.01 (does NOT survive),
|
||||||
|
uplift_hold -0.13, multicut_persistent=False, has_insample_edge=False, is_hedge=False.
|
||||||
|
A faster config (k=1.75, H=8) flips the lucky-window uplift positive (+0.18) but is in-sample
|
||||||
|
NEGATIVE (-0.40) => the judge correctly calls it NOISE (diversification math on a near-zero
|
||||||
|
stream, dressed by the 2025 window). NO cell in the (ema x k x H) grid has a positive in-sample
|
||||||
|
Sharpe on BOTH assets; the best single-asset cells reach ~+0.45 (BTC) while ETH is ~0, or vice
|
||||||
|
versa, and never together. The 1h fade does NOT reproduce the 15m tail-fade edge (agent_06):
|
||||||
|
1h aggregates away the micro-overshoot that mean-reverts and leaves the macro-overshoot that
|
||||||
|
TRENDS (TP01's domain, wrong sign for a fade). Honest outcome for a fee-bound intraday revert
|
||||||
|
idea on the dominant trend asset: it dies. Kept as a documented negative, not a deploy.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np
|
||||||
|
import pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
_EMA_HORIZONS_D = (1, 2, 3) # multi-day EMAs whose overshoot we fade (price far from trend)
|
||||||
|
_K = 2.0 # k-sigma overshoot gate — extreme tail only (rare => low turnover)
|
||||||
|
_H_BARS = 24 # hold the fade ~1 day (the only horizon where the 1h fade is not
|
||||||
|
# strongly WRONG-signed; H<24 => continuation, H>36 => decays)
|
||||||
|
_VOL_WIN_BARS = 24 # ~1 day of 1h bars for the causal return-sigma estimate
|
||||||
|
_BPD = 24 # 1h bars per day
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _overshoot_dist(c: np.ndarray, r: np.ndarray, ema_d: int) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Standardized distance of close from a multi-day EMA, in units of the expected move over
|
||||||
|
the EMA window. CAUSAL: per-bar return sigma is a trailing rolling std SHIFTED by 1; the EMA
|
||||||
|
uses only past bars. A value >= +k means price has overshot the trend to the upside."""
|
||||||
|
sig = pd.Series(r).rolling(_VOL_WIN_BARS, min_periods=_VOL_WIN_BARS // 2).std().shift(1).values
|
||||||
|
win = ema_d * _BPD
|
||||||
|
ema = al.ema(c, win)
|
||||||
|
return (c - ema) / c / (sig * np.sqrt(win))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def target(df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||||
|
"""Continuous gentle fade in {-1, 0, +1}. When the AVERAGE level-overshoot across the
|
||||||
|
1/2/3-day EMAs exceeds _K sigma (price extended on all timescales at once), take a unit fade
|
||||||
|
toward the trend and hold for _H_BARS, then flat. Rare gate => low turnover."""
|
||||||
|
c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
|
||||||
|
r = al.simple_returns(c)
|
||||||
|
n = len(c)
|
||||||
|
dists = [_overshoot_dist(c, r, h) for h in _EMA_HORIZONS_D]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
pos = np.zeros(n)
|
||||||
|
cur = 0.0
|
||||||
|
countdown = 0
|
||||||
|
for i in range(n):
|
||||||
|
if countdown > 0: # still holding a fade -> carry, no new trade
|
||||||
|
pos[i] = cur
|
||||||
|
countdown -= 1
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
vals = [d[i] for d in dists if np.isfinite(d[i])]
|
||||||
|
if vals:
|
||||||
|
mean_dist = float(np.mean(vals))
|
||||||
|
if abs(mean_dist) >= _K:
|
||||||
|
cur = -float(np.sign(mean_dist)) # FADE toward the trend
|
||||||
|
pos[i] = cur
|
||||||
|
countdown = _H_BARS - 1
|
||||||
|
return np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
for a in ("BTC", "ETH"):
|
||||||
|
d = al.get(a, "1h")
|
||||||
|
ev = al.eval_weights(d, target(d))
|
||||||
|
print(a, "full", ev["full"]["sharpe"], "hold", ev["holdout"]["sharpe"],
|
||||||
|
"turn/yr", ev["turnover_per_year"], "TiM", ev["time_in_market"])
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,338 @@
|
|||||||
|
[
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_13_range_compression_intra",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "1h",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "PASS",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "ADDS",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": true,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": 0.418,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": 0.2,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": 0.746,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": 0.055,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 0.702,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": true,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": true,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 0.514,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": 0.928,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 13.4,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 0.488,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_05_open_drive",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "1h",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "PASS",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "ADDS",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": true,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": 0.133,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": -0.055,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": 0.716,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": 0.232,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 0.924,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": true,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": true,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 0.678,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": 1.052,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 21.4,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 0.641,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_09_prevday_range_breakout",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "1h",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "PASS",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "ADDS",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": true,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": 0.149,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": -0.012,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": 0.68,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": 0.326,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 1.218,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": true,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": true,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 1.088,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": 0.916,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 56.2,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 0.985,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_11_weekly_seasonality",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "1h",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "PASS",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "ADDS",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": true,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": 0.44,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": 0.32,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": 0.402,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": 0.328,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 1.728,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": true,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": true,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 1.418,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": 0.861,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 86.0,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 1.262,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_06_vol_event_revert_15m",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "15m",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "PASS",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "ADDS",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": true,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": -0.102,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": -0.378,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": 0.3,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": 0.264,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 0.805,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": true,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": true,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 0.635,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": 0.949,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 13.8,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 0.593,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_07_volume_spike_revert",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "1h",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "WEAK",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "ADDS",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": true,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": 0.137,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": 0.182,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": 0.278,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": 0.039,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 0.573,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": true,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": true,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 0.401,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": 0.096,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 25.3,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 0.349,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_14_multi_session_momentum",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "1h",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "PASS",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "ADDS",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": true,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": 0.573,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": 0.396,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": 0.26,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": 0.181,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 1.639,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": true,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": true,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 1.241,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": 0.436,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 28.8,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 1.144,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_08_gap_fill",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "1h",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "PASS",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "ADDS",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": true,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": 0.044,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": 0.047,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": 0.243,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": 0.152,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 0.729,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": true,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": true,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 0.53,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": 0.432,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 11.6,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 0.501,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_12_close_location",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "1h",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "PASS",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "ADDS",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": true,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": 0.807,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": 0.707,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": 0.08,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": 0.066,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 1.604,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": true,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": true,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 1.249,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": 0.501,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 14.4,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 1.166,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_10_trend_quality_intra",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "1h",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "PASS",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "ADDS",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": true,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": 0.75,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": 0.741,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": 0.06,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": 0.059,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 1.551,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": true,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": true,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 0.903,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": 0.535,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 13.5,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 0.807,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_04_intraday_range_size",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "1h",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "PASS",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "REDUNDANT",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": false,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": 0.965,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": 0.97,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": 0.03,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": 0.011,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 1.484,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": false,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": false,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 1.074,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": 0.353,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 40.6,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 0.942,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_01_session_overlay",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "1h",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "WEAK",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "REDUNDANT",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": false,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": 0.973,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": 0.975,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": -0.041,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": 0.003,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 1.492,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": false,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": false,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 1.058,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": 0.03,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 46.9,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 0.904,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_03_funding_clock_15m",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "15m",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "FAIL",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "NEUTRAL",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": false,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": 0.911,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": 0.937,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": -0.105,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": -0.028,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 1.347,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": false,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": false,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 0.933,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": -0.323,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 56.2,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 0.742,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_02_overnight_vs_intraday",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "1h",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "FAIL",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "NEUTRAL",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": false,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": 0.933,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": 0.94,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": -0.124,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": -0.012,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 1.434,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": false,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": false,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 0.945,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": -0.41,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 98.2,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 0.497,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_15_intraday_meanrev_gated",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "1h",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "FAIL",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "NOISE",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": false,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": -0.017,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": 0.037,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": -0.132,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": -0.078,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 0.095,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": false,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": false,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": false,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 0.037,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": -1.194,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 19.1,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": -0.013,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": false
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"name": "agent_00_hour_of_day_bias",
|
||||||
|
"tf": "1h",
|
||||||
|
"abs_grade": "FAIL",
|
||||||
|
"marginal_verdict": "NEUTRAL",
|
||||||
|
"earns_slot": false,
|
||||||
|
"corr_full": 0.698,
|
||||||
|
"corr_hold": 0.595,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_hold": -0.305,
|
||||||
|
"uplift_full": -0.073,
|
||||||
|
"cand_insample_sharpe": 1.118,
|
||||||
|
"has_insample_edge": true,
|
||||||
|
"is_hedge": false,
|
||||||
|
"robust_oos": false,
|
||||||
|
"multicut_persistent": false,
|
||||||
|
"abs_full_sharpe": 0.625,
|
||||||
|
"abs_hold_sharpe": -0.582,
|
||||||
|
"turnover_per_year": 10.3,
|
||||||
|
"fee020_full_sharpe": 0.593,
|
||||||
|
"fee_survives": true
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
]
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,100 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""intra_score — judge an INTRADAY / short-horizon signal with the HARDENED marginal scorer.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
New axis (2026-06-21): everything post-reset was 1d. We have certified 5m/15m/1h. A module
|
||||||
|
defines a CONTINUOUS-position signal:
|
||||||
|
def target(df) -> np.array # per-bar position in [-1,1], decided <= close[i]
|
||||||
|
# (or target(df, asset) if you need the asset name, e.g. for DVOL)
|
||||||
|
This wraps altlib.study_marginal at the chosen TF: it compounds the intraday returns to a
|
||||||
|
daily series, scores it vs TP01 with the HARDENED gates (multi-cut persistence, in-sample
|
||||||
|
edge >=0.5, hedge-vs-alpha), AND reports the absolute robustness + FEE SWEEP (0.00-0.20% RT)
|
||||||
|
+ turnover. Intraday fights fees: a churner dies at 0.20% RT. earns_slot is the bullseye.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
uv run python scripts/research/intraday/intra_score.py --module <path.py> --tf 1h
|
||||||
|
uv run python scripts/research/intraday/intra_score.py --all --tf 1h
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import argparse
|
||||||
|
import importlib.util
|
||||||
|
import json
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
from pathlib import Path
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
AGENTS = HERE / "agents"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _target(path: Path):
|
||||||
|
spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(path.stem, path)
|
||||||
|
mod = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec)
|
||||||
|
spec.loader.exec_module(mod)
|
||||||
|
return mod.target
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def score(path: Path, tf: str) -> dict:
|
||||||
|
rec = {"name": path.stem, "tf": tf}
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
target = _target(path)
|
||||||
|
except Exception as e:
|
||||||
|
return {**rec, "error": f"import: {e}", "earns_slot": False}
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
rep = al.study_marginal(path.stem, target, tf=tf)
|
||||||
|
except Exception as e:
|
||||||
|
import traceback
|
||||||
|
return {**rec, "error": f"score: {e}\n{traceback.format_exc()[-300:]}", "earns_slot": False}
|
||||||
|
m = rep["marginal"]
|
||||||
|
cell = rep["absolute"]["cells"][0]
|
||||||
|
# min per-asset turnover/year + worst-case fee Sharpe (0.20% RT)
|
||||||
|
turn = max(cell["per_asset"][a]["turnover"] for a in ("BTC", "ETH"))
|
||||||
|
fee020 = min(cell["per_asset"][a]["fee_sweep"].get("0.20%RT", -9) for a in ("BTC", "ETH"))
|
||||||
|
rec.update(
|
||||||
|
abs_grade=rep["abs_grade"], marginal_verdict=rep["marginal_verdict"],
|
||||||
|
earns_slot=rep["earns_slot"],
|
||||||
|
corr_full=m.get("corr_full"), corr_hold=m.get("corr_hold"),
|
||||||
|
uplift_hold=m.get("blends", {}).get("w25", {}).get("uplift_hold"),
|
||||||
|
uplift_full=m.get("blends", {}).get("w25", {}).get("uplift_full"),
|
||||||
|
cand_insample_sharpe=m.get("cand_insample_sharpe"),
|
||||||
|
has_insample_edge=m.get("has_insample_edge"), is_hedge=m.get("is_hedge"),
|
||||||
|
robust_oos=m.get("robust_oos"), multicut_persistent=m.get("multicut_persistent"),
|
||||||
|
abs_full_sharpe=cell.get("min_asset_full_sharpe"),
|
||||||
|
abs_hold_sharpe=cell.get("min_asset_holdout_sharpe"),
|
||||||
|
turnover_per_year=round(turn, 1), fee020_full_sharpe=round(fee020, 3),
|
||||||
|
fee_survives=cell.get("fee_survives"),
|
||||||
|
)
|
||||||
|
return rec
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def main():
|
||||||
|
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
|
||||||
|
ap.add_argument("--module"); ap.add_argument("--tf", default="1h")
|
||||||
|
ap.add_argument("--all", action="store_true")
|
||||||
|
args = ap.parse_args()
|
||||||
|
if args.all:
|
||||||
|
rows = []
|
||||||
|
for p in sorted(AGENTS.glob("agent_*.py")):
|
||||||
|
tf = "15m" if "_15m" in p.stem else args.tf
|
||||||
|
rows.append(score(p, tf))
|
||||||
|
rows.sort(key=lambda r: (r.get("earns_slot", False), r.get("uplift_hold") or -9), reverse=True)
|
||||||
|
print(f"\n INTRADAY wave ({len(rows)} signals) — hardened marginal judge + fee sweep")
|
||||||
|
print(f" {'name':<26}{'tf':>4} {'verdict':<9}{'absG':>5}{'corrH':>6}{'up_h':>6}"
|
||||||
|
f"{'is_sh':>6}{'turn':>6}{'fee.20':>7} slot")
|
||||||
|
print(" " + "-" * 92)
|
||||||
|
for r in rows:
|
||||||
|
if "error" in r:
|
||||||
|
print(f" {r['name'][:26]:<26}{r['tf']:>4} ERROR {r['error'][:40]}"); continue
|
||||||
|
print(f" {r['name'][:26]:<26}{r['tf']:>4} {str(r['marginal_verdict']):<9}"
|
||||||
|
f"{str(r['abs_grade']):>5}{str(r.get('corr_hold')):>6}{str(r.get('uplift_hold')):>6}"
|
||||||
|
f"{str(r.get('cand_insample_sharpe')):>6}{str(r.get('turnover_per_year')):>6}"
|
||||||
|
f"{str(r.get('fee020_full_sharpe')):>7} {'<<<' if r.get('earns_slot') else ''}")
|
||||||
|
slots = [r["name"] for r in rows if r.get("earns_slot")]
|
||||||
|
print(f"\n EARNS SLOT: {slots or 'NONE'}")
|
||||||
|
(HERE / "intra_leaderboard.json").write_text(json.dumps(rows, indent=2, default=str))
|
||||||
|
else:
|
||||||
|
print(json.dumps(score(Path(args.module), args.tf), indent=2, default=str))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
main()
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""meta_intra — orchestrator read on the intraday 'earns_slot' set. Like the ortho wave:
|
||||||
|
10 'slots' cannot be 10 alphas. Compute corr-to-TP01 (the hardened scorer passes a high
|
||||||
|
in-sample Sharpe even when it is borrowed trend-beta), mutual correlation, and per-cut
|
||||||
|
uplift, to separate GENUINELY ORTHOGONAL low-turnover intraday signals from trend-in-disguise.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
import importlib.util, sys
|
||||||
|
from pathlib import Path
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np, pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
AG = HERE / "agents"
|
||||||
|
CUTS = ["2021-01-01", "2022-01-01", "2023-01-01", "2024-01-01", "2025-01-01"]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _target(p):
|
||||||
|
s = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(p.stem, p); m = importlib.util.module_from_spec(s); s.loader.exec_module(m); return m.target
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _sh(s):
|
||||||
|
r = np.asarray(s.dropna().values, float); return float(np.mean(r)/np.std(r)*np.sqrt(365.25)) if len(r) > 2 and np.std(r) > 0 else 0.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _u(c, B, cut, w=0.25):
|
||||||
|
J = pd.concat({"B": B, "C": c}, axis=1, join="inner").dropna(); J = J[J.index >= pd.Timestamp(cut, tz="UTC")]
|
||||||
|
return _sh((1-w)*J["B"]+w*J["C"]) - _sh(J["B"]) if len(J) > 30 else float("nan")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def main():
|
||||||
|
import json
|
||||||
|
lb = json.loads((HERE/"intra_leaderboard.json").read_text())
|
||||||
|
slots = [r["name"] for r in lb if r.get("earns_slot")]
|
||||||
|
B = al.tp01_baseline_daily()
|
||||||
|
daily = {}
|
||||||
|
for name in slots:
|
||||||
|
p = AG/f"{name}.py"; tf = "15m" if "_15m" in name else "1h"
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
daily[name.replace("agent_", "")] = al.candidate_daily(_target(p), tf=tf)
|
||||||
|
except Exception as e:
|
||||||
|
print(f" skip {name}: {e}")
|
||||||
|
names = list(daily)
|
||||||
|
M = pd.concat(daily, axis=1, join="inner").dropna()
|
||||||
|
corrTP = {n: round(float(pd.concat({"B": B, "C": daily[n]}, axis=1, join="inner").dropna().corr().iloc[0, 1]), 2) for n in names}
|
||||||
|
print(f"\n INTRADAY earns_slot set ({len(names)}) — corr to TP01 & per-cut uplift")
|
||||||
|
print(f" {'signal':<26}{'corrTP':>7} per-cut uplift " + " ".join(c[:4] for c in CUTS))
|
||||||
|
for n in sorted(names, key=lambda x: corrTP[x]):
|
||||||
|
ups = [_u(daily[n], B, c) for c in CUTS]
|
||||||
|
tag = "ORTHO" if abs(corrTP[n]) < 0.4 else ("trend-beta" if corrTP[n] > 0.6 else "mixed")
|
||||||
|
print(f" {n:<26}{corrTP[n]:>7} " + " ".join(f"{u:>+5.2f}" for u in ups) + f" [{tag}]")
|
||||||
|
print(f"\n mutual corr among the LOW-corr (<0.4 to TP01) ones:")
|
||||||
|
ortho = [n for n in names if abs(corrTP[n]) < 0.4]
|
||||||
|
if len(ortho) >= 2:
|
||||||
|
print(M[ortho].corr().round(2).to_string())
|
||||||
|
# combined equal-weight of the orthogonal ones
|
||||||
|
if ortho:
|
||||||
|
combo = M[ortho].mean(axis=1)
|
||||||
|
print(f"\n ORTHO combo ({len(ortho)}): standalone Sh {_sh(combo):.2f} corrTP {float(pd.concat({'B':B,'C':combo},axis=1,join='inner').dropna().corr().iloc[0,1]):.2f}")
|
||||||
|
print(" per-cut uplift: " + " ".join(f"{_u(combo,B,c):+.2f}" for c in CUTS))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
main()
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
|
|||||||
|
"""verify_intra — adversarial gauntlet on the intraday orthogonal combo, the SAME tests
|
||||||
|
that killed the ortho relative-value wave. Does the low-turnover intraday combo survive?
|
||||||
|
1. in-sample (pre-2025) standalone Sharpe + per-cut uplift (is it pre-2025 real or 2025-only?)
|
||||||
|
2. WALK-FORWARD selection (pick orthogonal positive-uplift signals on PAST data, test forward)
|
||||||
|
3. drop-one-mechanism (carried by one signal?)
|
||||||
|
4. fee stress to 0.30% RT
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
import importlib.util, sys
|
||||||
|
from pathlib import Path
|
||||||
|
import numpy as np, pandas as pd
|
||||||
|
HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
|
||||||
|
import altlib as al # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
AG = HERE/"agents"
|
||||||
|
ORTHO = ["agent_05_open_drive", "agent_09_prevday_range_breakout", "agent_06_vol_event_revert_15m",
|
||||||
|
"agent_07_volume_spike_revert", "agent_08_gap_fill"]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _t(name):
|
||||||
|
p = AG/f"{name}.py"; s = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(name, p); m = importlib.util.module_from_spec(s); s.loader.exec_module(m); return m.target
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _sh(s):
|
||||||
|
r = np.asarray(s.dropna().values, float); return float(np.mean(r)/np.std(r)*np.sqrt(365.25)) if len(r) > 2 and np.std(r) > 0 else 0.0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _u(c, B, cut="2018-01-01", end=None, w=0.25):
|
||||||
|
J = pd.concat({"B": B, "C": c}, axis=1, join="inner").dropna(); J = J[J.index >= pd.Timestamp(cut, tz="UTC")]
|
||||||
|
if end: J = J[J.index < pd.Timestamp(end, tz="UTC")]
|
||||||
|
return _sh((1-w)*J["B"]+w*J["C"]) - _sh(J["B"]) if len(J) > 30 else float("nan")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def daily(name, fee=al.FEE_SIDE):
|
||||||
|
tf = "15m" if "_15m" in name else "1h"
|
||||||
|
return al.candidate_daily(_t(name), tf=tf, fee_side=fee)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def main():
|
||||||
|
B = al.tp01_baseline_daily()
|
||||||
|
dl = {n: daily(n) for n in ORTHO}
|
||||||
|
M = pd.concat(dl, axis=1, join="inner").dropna()
|
||||||
|
combo = M.mean(axis=1)
|
||||||
|
H = pd.Timestamp("2025-01-01", tz="UTC")
|
||||||
|
ci = combo[combo.index < H]
|
||||||
|
print(f"\n COMBO standalone Sharpe full {_sh(combo):.2f} PRE-2025 {_sh(ci):.2f} corrTP {pd.concat({'b':B,'c':combo},axis=1,join='inner').dropna().corr().iloc[0,1]:.2f}")
|
||||||
|
print(f" per-cut uplift: " + " ".join(f"{c[:4]} {_u(combo,B,c):+.2f}" for c in ["2021-01-01","2022-01-01","2023-01-01","2024-01-01","2025-01-01"]))
|
||||||
|
# pre-2025-only uplift (exclude the suspect window entirely)
|
||||||
|
pre = pd.concat({"B": B, "C": combo}, axis=1, join="inner").dropna(); pre = pre[pre.index < H]
|
||||||
|
print(f" PRE-2025 ONLY uplift (2018->2025): {_sh(0.75*pre['B']+0.25*pre['C'])-_sh(pre['B']):+.3f}")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
print("\n WALK-FORWARD SELECTION (pick orthogonal +uplift signals on PAST only, test fwd):")
|
||||||
|
ALL = sorted(p.stem for p in AG.glob("agent_*.py"))
|
||||||
|
dlall = {}
|
||||||
|
for n in ALL:
|
||||||
|
try: dlall[n] = daily(n)
|
||||||
|
except Exception: pass
|
||||||
|
for sel_end in ["2023-01-01", "2024-01-01"]:
|
||||||
|
picks = []
|
||||||
|
for n, d in dlall.items():
|
||||||
|
up = _u(d, B, "2018-01-01", sel_end)
|
||||||
|
cc = pd.concat({"b": B, "c": d}, axis=1, join="inner").dropna()
|
||||||
|
cc = cc[cc.index < pd.Timestamp(sel_end, tz="UTC")]
|
||||||
|
corr = abs(cc.corr().iloc[0, 1]) if len(cc) > 30 else 1
|
||||||
|
if not np.isnan(up) and up > 0.05 and corr < 0.4:
|
||||||
|
picks.append(n)
|
||||||
|
if picks:
|
||||||
|
cb = pd.concat({n: dlall[n] for n in picks}, axis=1, join="inner").dropna().mean(axis=1)
|
||||||
|
print(f" select<{sel_end}: {len(picks)} picks {[p.replace('agent_','')[:12] for p in picks]}")
|
||||||
|
print(f" -> FORWARD uplift {sel_end}->now: {_u(cb, B, sel_end):+.3f}")
|
||||||
|
else:
|
||||||
|
print(f" select<{sel_end}: no qualifying picks")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
print("\n DROP-ONE-MECHANISM (full & pre-2025 uplift):")
|
||||||
|
for drop in ORTHO:
|
||||||
|
keep = [n for n in ORTHO if n != drop]
|
||||||
|
cb = M[keep].mean(axis=1)
|
||||||
|
pr = pd.concat({"B": B, "C": cb}, axis=1, join="inner").dropna(); pr = pr[pr.index < H]
|
||||||
|
print(f" -{drop.replace('agent_',''):<26} full {_u(cb,B):+.3f} pre2025 {_sh(0.75*pr['B']+0.25*pr['C'])-_sh(pr['B']):+.3f}")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
print("\n FEE STRESS (combo):")
|
||||||
|
for fee in [0.0005, 0.001, 0.0015]:
|
||||||
|
cb = pd.concat({n: daily(n, fee) for n in ORTHO}, axis=1, join="inner").dropna().mean(axis=1)
|
||||||
|
print(f" {2*fee*100:.2f}%RT: standalone Sh {_sh(cb):.2f} uplift_full {_u(cb,B):+.3f}")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
main()
|
||||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user