research(wave-0702): ondata timing + CRT — 8 filoni, 0 nuovi sleeve, finding anchor timing-luck TP01
Goal: "altre strategie su Deribit con timing differenti". 8 filoni multi-agente + scettico: - event-clock bars, expiry calendar Deribit, clock lenti/bande, regime-speed: SCARTATI - CRT (Candle Range Theory) base/multi-TF/contesto: SCARTATA 3/3 (DSR~0, ritest = informazione negativa; sottoprodotto: FOLLOW>FADE sui livelli prior-day ogni anno, conferma il lead prevday) - FINDING (confermato da scettico indipendente): hold-out 0.31 di TP01 = migliore delle 24 ancore orarie (mediana 0.04, banda [-0.13,+0.30]) -> narrativa corretta in CLAUDE.md e docstring: l'hold-out non risolve l'edge di ritorno, regge il taglio DD a ogni ancora. Tranching K=2/4 = solo varianza della stima, no deploy a $600. Audit d'ancora pendente su XS01/SKH01. Book live e portafoglio INVARIATI. Test 168/168. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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"""r0702_eventclock.py — EVENT-CLOCK BARS (campionamento a tempo-informazione), 2026-07-02.
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IPOTESI: campionare il tempo per INFORMAZIONE (volume bars, vol bars = cum|logret|, range
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bars) normalizza i regimi e migliora trend/breakout A PARITA' di strategia e frequenza media
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rispetto alle barre wall-clock. Mai testato nel progetto (tutte le 104 famiglie girano su
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barre wall-clock).
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DISEGNO ONESTO:
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* Barre-evento costruite dal 5m certificato Deribit (al.get). Soglia CAUSALE: EWMA-90g
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dell'incremento per barra 5m, SHIFTATA di 1 (solo passato), x N_target barre 5m per la
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durata nominale (4h/12h/24h). Nessuna calibrazione full-sample. Parametri fissati a
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priori (span 90g, warm-up 14g, durate 4/12/24h).
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* Decisione a close della barra-evento k -> posizione tenuta DALLA prima barra 5m dopo la
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chiusura (shift +1 barra-evento). Mark-to-market sul 5m, compounding a griglia daily
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UTC (stessa convenzione di al.candidate_daily). Fee 0.0005/lato su |Δpos|.
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* Selezione cella SOLO IN-SAMPLE (pre-2025) sul Sharpe 50/50; hold-out riportato per
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QUELLA cella. deflated_sharpe su TUTTI i trial (event + wall).
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* CONTROLLO DECISIVO: stessa strategia, stessi parametri (in unita' di barre, convertiti
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per durata nominale) su barre WALL-CLOCK 4h/12h/1d (al.get, path resample leak-free).
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* Guardia causalita': ricostruzione barre+target su prefisso (80%/92%) -> i confini e i
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target devono coincidere con la run full troncata.
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* NIENTE ffill mixed-timeframe; niente DatetimeIndex.view('int64') (uso la colonna
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timestamp in ms).
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Run: uv run python scripts/research/r0702_eventclock.py
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import sys
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import time
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
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import altlib as al # noqa: E402
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FEE = al.FEE_SIDE
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HOLDOUT = al.HOLDOUT
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ASSETS = ("BTC", "ETH")
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# ---- parametri FISSATI A PRIORI (nessun tuning) -----------------------------------------
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DUR_HOURS = (4.0, 12.0, 24.0) # durata media nominale delle barre-evento
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BAR_TYPES = ("volume", "volbar", "range")
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WALL_TF = {4.0: "4h", 12.0: "12h", 24.0: "1d"}
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EWM_SPAN_5M = 90 * 288 # soglia adattiva: EWMA 90 giorni di barre 5m
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WARMUP_5M = 14 * 288 # min_periods 14 giorni prima della prima barra
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BARS_5M_PER_H = 12
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# strategie (parametri in GIORNI-equivalenti, convertiti in barre per durata nominale)
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STRATS = [
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("TSMOM-30/90/180", "tsmom", dict(days=(30, 90, 180))),
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("DONCH-10d", "donch", dict(days=10)),
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("DONCH-30d", "donch", dict(days=30)),
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("EWMA-5/30", "ewma", dict(days=(5, 30))),
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("EWMA-15/75", "ewma", dict(days=(15, 75))),
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]
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def bars_for_days(days: float, dur_h: float) -> int:
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return max(2, int(round(days * 24.0 / dur_h)))
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# ==========================================================================================
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# COSTRUZIONE BARRE-EVENTO (causale)
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# ==========================================================================================
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def _increments(df5: pd.DataFrame, kind: str) -> np.ndarray:
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c = df5["close"].values.astype(float)
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if kind == "volume":
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return df5["volume"].values.astype(float)
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if kind == "volbar": # cum |logret|
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r = np.zeros(len(c)); r[1:] = np.abs(np.log(c[1:] / c[:-1]))
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return r
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if kind == "range": # cum range relativo (high-low)/close
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h = df5["high"].values.astype(float); l = df5["low"].values.astype(float)
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return (h - l) / np.where(c > 0, c, np.nan)
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raise ValueError(kind)
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def _bar_close_indices(x: np.ndarray, thr: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
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"""Loop di formazione barre: chiude una barra quando il cum degli incrementi dal
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close della barra precedente raggiunge la soglia CAUSALE thr[i] (gia' shiftata)."""
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e = []
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cum = 0.0
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ap = e.append
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for i in range(len(x)):
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t = thr[i]
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if not (t > 0.0): # NaN o <=0 (warm-up): non accumulare
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cum = 0.0
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continue
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cum += x[i]
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if cum >= t:
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ap(i)
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cum = 0.0
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return np.asarray(e, dtype=np.int64)
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class EventBars:
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"""Barre-evento per (asset, tipo, durata): OHLC + indici 5m di chiusura."""
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def __init__(self, df5: pd.DataFrame, kind: str, dur_h: float):
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x = np.nan_to_num(_increments(df5, kind), nan=0.0)
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# soglia causale: EWMA(span 90g) dell'incremento per 5m, shift(1), x N barre target
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m = pd.Series(x).ewm(span=EWM_SPAN_5M, min_periods=WARMUP_5M,
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adjust=False).mean().shift(1).values
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n_target = dur_h * BARS_5M_PER_H
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thr = m * n_target
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self.e = _bar_close_indices(x, thr) # indici 5m dei close di barra
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if len(self.e) < 300:
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raise RuntimeError(f"troppo poche barre-evento ({len(self.e)}) per {kind}/{dur_h}h")
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c5 = df5["close"].values.astype(float)
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h5 = df5["high"].values.astype(float)
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l5 = df5["low"].values.astype(float)
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i0 = int(np.argmax(thr > 0)) # primo indice utilizzabile
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starts = np.concatenate([[i0], self.e[:-1] + 1])
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sl = slice(0, self.e[-1] + 1)
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self.close = c5[self.e]
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self.high = np.maximum.reduceat(h5[sl], starts)
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self.low = np.minimum.reduceat(l5[sl], starts)
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# close-time in ms (fine barra 5m = open label + 5m); NIENTE .view su tz-aware
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ts5 = df5["timestamp"].values.astype(np.int64)
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self.ts_close_ms = ts5[self.e] + 300_000
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self.n5 = len(df5)
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# statistiche durata
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d_h = np.diff(self.ts_close_ms) / 3.6e6
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self.dur_median_h = float(np.median(d_h))
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self.dur_p5_h = float(np.percentile(d_h, 5))
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span_days = (self.ts_close_ms[-1] - self.ts_close_ms[0]) / 86.4e6
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self.bars_per_day = len(self.e) / max(span_days, 1.0)
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ho_ms = int(HOLDOUT.value // 1_000_000)
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mask_h = self.ts_close_ms >= ho_ms
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span_h = (self.ts_close_ms[-1] - ho_ms) / 86.4e6
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self.bars_per_day_holdout = float(mask_h.sum() / max(span_h, 1.0))
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# ==========================================================================================
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# STRATEGIE (target causale su barre-evento O wall-clock: array close/high/low)
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# ==========================================================================================
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def strat_target(close: np.ndarray, high: np.ndarray, low: np.ndarray,
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fn: str, params: dict, dur_h: float) -> np.ndarray:
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n = len(close)
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if fn == "tsmom":
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hs = [bars_for_days(d, dur_h) for d in params["days"]]
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d = np.zeros(n)
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for k in hs:
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s = np.zeros(n); s[k:] = np.sign(close[k:] - close[:-k])
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d += s
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t = (d > 0).astype(float)
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t[:max(hs)] = 0.0 # tutte le finestre disponibili
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return t
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if fn == "donch":
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N = bars_for_days(params["days"], dur_h)
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hi = pd.Series(high).rolling(N, min_periods=N).max().shift(1).values
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lo = pd.Series(low).rolling(N, min_periods=N).min().shift(1).values
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pos = np.where(close > hi, 1.0, np.nan)
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pos = np.where(close < lo, 0.0, pos)
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return pd.Series(pos).ffill().fillna(0.0).values
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if fn == "ewma":
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f_d, s_d = params["days"]
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fs, ss = bars_for_days(f_d, dur_h), bars_for_days(s_d, dur_h)
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f = pd.Series(close).ewm(span=fs, adjust=False).mean().values
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s = pd.Series(close).ewm(span=ss, adjust=False).mean().values
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t = (f > s).astype(float)
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t[:ss] = 0.0
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return t
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raise ValueError(fn)
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# ==========================================================================================
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# VALUTAZIONE — barre-evento marked-to-market sul 5m, compounding daily
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# ==========================================================================================
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def pos5_from_event(n5: int, e: np.ndarray, tgt: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
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"""Espande i target di barra-evento a posizione per-barra-5m. Il target deciso al
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close della barra-evento k (indice 5m e[k]) e' tenuto DURANTE le barre 5m
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(e[k], e[k+1]] -> shift +1 barra-evento by construction."""
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tgt = np.nan_to_num(np.asarray(tgt, float), nan=0.0)
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pos = np.zeros(n5)
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if len(e) >= 2:
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pos[e[0] + 1:e[-1] + 1] = np.repeat(tgt[:-1], np.diff(e))
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if len(e) >= 1:
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pos[e[-1] + 1:] = tgt[-1]
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return pos
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def daily_from_pos5(df5: pd.DataFrame, pos5: np.ndarray, fee_side: float = FEE) -> pd.Series:
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c = df5["close"].values.astype(float)
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r = np.zeros(len(c)); r[1:] = c[1:] / c[:-1] - 1.0
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turn = np.abs(np.diff(pos5, prepend=0.0))
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net = pos5 * r - fee_side * turn
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net[0] = 0.0
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idx = pd.DatetimeIndex(pd.to_datetime(df5["datetime"], utc=True))
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return al._to_daily(pd.Series(net, index=idx))
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def daily_wall(asset: str, tf: str, fn: str, params: dict, dur_h: float,
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fee_side: float = FEE) -> pd.Series:
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df = al.get(asset, tf)
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tgt = strat_target(df["close"].values.astype(float), df["high"].values.astype(float),
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df["low"].values.astype(float), fn, params, dur_h)
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ev = al.eval_weights(df, tgt, fee_side=fee_side) # shift +1 fatto dall'harness
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return al._to_daily(pd.Series(ev["net"], index=ev["idx"]))
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def combo5050(dA: pd.Series, dB: pd.Series) -> pd.Series:
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J = pd.concat({"A": dA, "B": dB}, axis=1, join="inner").fillna(0.0)
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return 0.5 * J["A"] + 0.5 * J["B"]
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def met(d: pd.Series) -> dict:
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"""Sharpe/CAGR/maxDD full + hold + in-sample da una serie daily."""
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di = d[d.index < HOLDOUT]; dh = d[d.index >= HOLDOUT]
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def _cagr(s):
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if len(s) < 10:
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return float("nan")
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tot = float(np.prod(1.0 + s.values))
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return tot ** (365.25 / len(s)) - 1.0 if tot > 0 else -1.0
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return dict(is_sh=round(al._sh(di), 3), full_sh=round(al._sh(d), 3),
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hold_sh=round(al._sh(dh), 3), full_dd=round(al._dd_ret(d), 4),
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hold_dd=round(al._dd_ret(dh), 4), full_cagr=round(_cagr(d), 4),
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hold_cagr=round(_cagr(dh), 4))
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def yearly(d: pd.Series) -> dict:
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out = {}
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for y, g in d.groupby(d.index.year):
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eq = np.cumprod(1 + g.values); pk = np.maximum.accumulate(eq)
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out[int(y)] = (round(float(eq[-1] - 1), 4), round(float(np.max((pk - eq) / pk)), 4))
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return out
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# ==========================================================================================
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# GUARDIA CAUSALITA' — ricostruzione su prefisso
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# ==========================================================================================
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def causality_prefix_check(asset: str, kind: str, dur_h: float, fn: str, params: dict) -> dict:
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"""Ricostruisce barre+target sul prefisso 80%/92% del 5m: i confini di barra devono
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essere un prefisso esatto di quelli full (tranne l'ultima barra incompleta) e i target
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delle barre condivise identici. Qualunque dipendenza dal futuro diverge."""
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df5 = al.get(asset, "5m")
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full = EventBars(df5, kind, dur_h)
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t_full = strat_target(full.close, full.high, full.low, fn, params, dur_h)
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worst = 0.0; ok = True; checked = 0
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for frac in (0.80, 0.92):
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cut = int(len(df5) * frac)
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sub = df5.iloc[:cut].reset_index(drop=True)
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eb = EventBars(sub, kind, dur_h)
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m = len(eb.e)
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if not np.array_equal(eb.e, full.e[:m]):
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ok = False
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continue
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t_sub = strat_target(eb.close, eb.high, eb.low, fn, params, dur_h)
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d = float(np.max(np.abs(t_sub - t_full[:m]))) if m else 0.0
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worst = max(worst, d)
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checked += 1
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return dict(ok=bool(ok and worst <= 1e-9), max_diff=worst, checked=checked)
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# ==========================================================================================
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# SMALL-CAP a $600 sulle transizioni della cella scelta
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# ==========================================================================================
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def smallcap_event(df5: pd.DataFrame, pos5: np.ndarray, capital=600.0, min_order=5.0) -> dict:
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tgt = np.nan_to_num(pos5, nan=0.0)
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held = np.empty(len(tgt)); cur = 0.0; n_tr = 0
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for i in range(len(tgt)):
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if abs(tgt[i] - cur) * capital >= min_order:
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cur = tgt[i]; n_tr += 1
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held[i] = cur
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d_real = daily_from_pos5(df5, held)
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d_mod = daily_from_pos5(df5, tgt)
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return dict(realistic_sh=round(al._sh(d_real), 3), modeled_sh=round(al._sh(d_mod), 3),
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haircut=round(al._sh(d_mod) - al._sh(d_real), 3), n_executed=n_tr)
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# ==========================================================================================
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# MAIN
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# ==========================================================================================
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def main():
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t0 = time.time()
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print("=" * 100)
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print("R0702 EVENT-CLOCK BARS — volume/volbar/range vs wall-clock, selezione in-sample")
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print("=" * 100)
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df5 = {a: al.get(a, "5m") for a in ASSETS}
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for a in ASSETS:
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print(f"{a} 5m: {len(df5[a])} barre, {df5[a]['datetime'].iloc[0]} -> "
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f"{df5[a]['datetime'].iloc[-1]}")
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# ---- 1. costruzione barre-evento (cache) --------------------------------------------
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print("\n--- CALIBRAZIONE CLOCK (barre/giorno; target 4h=6, 12h=2, 24h=1) ---")
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bars = {}
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print(f"{'asset':5s} {'tipo':7s} {'dur':>5s} {'n_bars':>7s} {'bars/g':>7s} "
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f"{'bars/g HOLD':>11s} {'med(h)':>7s} {'p5(h)':>6s}")
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for a in ASSETS:
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for k in BAR_TYPES:
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for dh in DUR_HOURS:
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eb = EventBars(df5[a], k, dh)
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bars[(a, k, dh)] = eb
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print(f"{a:5s} {k:7s} {dh:4.0f}h {len(eb.e):7d} {eb.bars_per_day:7.2f} "
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f"{eb.bars_per_day_holdout:11.2f} {eb.dur_median_h:7.2f} {eb.dur_p5_h:6.2f}")
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# ---- 2. tutte le celle: event (3 tipi x 3 durate x 5 strategie) + wall (3 tf x 5) ---
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cells = [] # dict(kind, bar_type, dur_h, strat, daily {asset}, daily5050, met)
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for sname, fn, params in STRATS:
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for dh in DUR_HOURS:
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# wall-clock control
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dw = {a: daily_wall(a, WALL_TF[dh], fn, params, dh) for a in ASSETS}
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c5050 = combo5050(dw["BTC"], dw["ETH"])
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cells.append(dict(kind="wall", bar_type=WALL_TF[dh], dur_h=dh, strat=sname,
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fn=fn, params=params, daily=dw, d5050=c5050, met=met(c5050)))
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# event-clock
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for k in BAR_TYPES:
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de = {}
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for a in ASSETS:
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eb = bars[(a, k, dh)]
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tgt = strat_target(eb.close, eb.high, eb.low, fn, params, dh)
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de[a] = daily_from_pos5(df5[a], pos5_from_event(eb.n5, eb.e, tgt))
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c5050 = combo5050(de["BTC"], de["ETH"])
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cells.append(dict(kind="event", bar_type=k, dur_h=dh, strat=sname,
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fn=fn, params=params, daily=de, d5050=c5050, met=met(c5050)))
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print(f"\n--- TUTTE LE CELLE (Sharpe 50/50: IN-SAMPLE pre-2025 | FULL | HOLD 2025-26) ---")
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print(f"{'clock':6s} {'barre':7s} {'dur':>4s} {'strategia':16s} {'IS':>6s} {'FULL':>6s} {'HOLD':>6s}")
|
||||
for c in sorted(cells, key=lambda x: (x["strat"], x["dur_h"], x["kind"], x["bar_type"])):
|
||||
m = c["met"]
|
||||
print(f"{c['kind']:6s} {c['bar_type']:7s} {c['dur_h']:3.0f}h {c['strat']:16s} "
|
||||
f"{m['is_sh']:6.2f} {m['full_sh']:6.2f} {m['hold_sh']:6.2f}")
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- 3. CONTROLLO DECISIVO: paired event vs wall a parita' di strategia+durata ------
|
||||
print("\n--- PAIRED: event vs wall (Δ Sharpe = event − wall, per cella accoppiata) ---")
|
||||
print(f"{'strategia':16s} {'dur':>4s} {'tipo':7s} {'ΔIS':>7s} {'ΔHOLD':>7s}")
|
||||
n_pairs = n_is_win = n_hold_win = n_both_win = 0
|
||||
for sname, fn, params in STRATS:
|
||||
for dh in DUR_HOURS:
|
||||
w = next(c for c in cells if c["kind"] == "wall" and c["strat"] == sname
|
||||
and c["dur_h"] == dh)
|
||||
for k in BAR_TYPES:
|
||||
e = next(c for c in cells if c["kind"] == "event" and c["strat"] == sname
|
||||
and c["dur_h"] == dh and c["bar_type"] == k)
|
||||
d_is = e["met"]["is_sh"] - w["met"]["is_sh"]
|
||||
d_h = e["met"]["hold_sh"] - w["met"]["hold_sh"]
|
||||
n_pairs += 1
|
||||
n_is_win += d_is > 0
|
||||
n_hold_win += d_h > 0
|
||||
n_both_win += (d_is > 0 and d_h > 0)
|
||||
print(f"{sname:16s} {dh:3.0f}h {k:7s} {d_is:+7.2f} {d_h:+7.2f}")
|
||||
print(f"\nevent batte wall: IS {n_is_win}/{n_pairs}, HOLD {n_hold_win}/{n_pairs}, "
|
||||
f"ENTRAMBI {n_both_win}/{n_pairs}")
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- 4. selezione IN-SAMPLE della cella event migliore ------------------------------
|
||||
ev_cells = [c for c in cells if c["kind"] == "event"]
|
||||
wall_cells = [c for c in cells if c["kind"] == "wall"]
|
||||
chosen = max(ev_cells, key=lambda c: c["met"]["is_sh"])
|
||||
paired = next(c for c in wall_cells if c["strat"] == chosen["strat"]
|
||||
and c["dur_h"] == chosen["dur_h"])
|
||||
best_wall_is = max(wall_cells, key=lambda c: c["met"]["is_sh"])
|
||||
|
||||
print("\n" + "=" * 100)
|
||||
print(f"CELLA SCELTA (max Sharpe IN-SAMPLE 50/50 tra le {len(ev_cells)} event): "
|
||||
f"{chosen['bar_type']} {chosen['dur_h']:.0f}h {chosen['strat']}")
|
||||
print("=" * 100)
|
||||
for label, d in (("BTC", chosen["daily"]["BTC"]), ("ETH", chosen["daily"]["ETH"]),
|
||||
("50/50", chosen["d5050"])):
|
||||
m = met(d)
|
||||
print(f" {label:6s} FULL Sh {m['full_sh']:+.2f} DD {m['full_dd']*100:5.1f}% "
|
||||
f"CAGR {m['full_cagr']*100:+6.1f}% | HOLD Sh {m['hold_sh']:+.2f} "
|
||||
f"DD {m['hold_dd']*100:5.1f}% CAGR {m['hold_cagr']*100:+6.1f}% | IS {m['is_sh']:+.2f}")
|
||||
print(f"\n paired wall ({paired['bar_type']}, stessa strategia):")
|
||||
for label, d in (("BTC", paired["daily"]["BTC"]), ("ETH", paired["daily"]["ETH"]),
|
||||
("50/50", paired["d5050"])):
|
||||
m = met(d)
|
||||
print(f" {label:6s} FULL Sh {m['full_sh']:+.2f} DD {m['full_dd']*100:5.1f}% "
|
||||
f"CAGR {m['full_cagr']*100:+6.1f}% | HOLD Sh {m['hold_sh']:+.2f} "
|
||||
f"DD {m['hold_dd']*100:5.1f}% CAGR {m['hold_cagr']*100:+6.1f}% | IS {m['is_sh']:+.2f}")
|
||||
bw = best_wall_is["met"]
|
||||
print(f"\n best WALL in-sample: {best_wall_is['bar_type']} {best_wall_is['strat']} "
|
||||
f"IS {bw['is_sh']:+.2f} FULL {bw['full_sh']:+.2f} HOLD {bw['hold_sh']:+.2f}")
|
||||
|
||||
print("\n per-anno 50/50 cella scelta (ret, maxDD):")
|
||||
for y, (r, dd) in yearly(chosen["d5050"]).items():
|
||||
print(f" {y}: {r*100:+6.1f}% dd {dd*100:5.1f}%")
|
||||
|
||||
# decisive control per-asset
|
||||
print("\n CONTROLLO DECISIVO per-asset (event − wall):")
|
||||
dec_ok = True
|
||||
for a in ASSETS:
|
||||
me, mw = met(chosen["daily"][a]), met(paired["daily"][a])
|
||||
d_is, d_h = me["is_sh"] - mw["is_sh"], me["hold_sh"] - mw["hold_sh"]
|
||||
dec_ok = dec_ok and (d_is > 0 and d_h > 0)
|
||||
print(f" {a}: ΔIS {d_is:+.2f} ΔHOLD {d_h:+.2f}")
|
||||
print(f" event batte wall IS E HOLD su entrambi gli asset: {dec_ok}")
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- 5. fee sweep sulla cella scelta -------------------------------------------------
|
||||
print("\n FEE SWEEP (Sharpe FULL 50/50):")
|
||||
fee_sh = {}
|
||||
for f in al.FEE_SWEEP:
|
||||
dd_ = {}
|
||||
for a in ASSETS:
|
||||
eb = bars[(a, chosen["bar_type"], chosen["dur_h"])]
|
||||
tgt = strat_target(eb.close, eb.high, eb.low, chosen["fn"], chosen["params"],
|
||||
chosen["dur_h"])
|
||||
dd_[a] = daily_from_pos5(df5[a], pos5_from_event(eb.n5, eb.e, tgt), fee_side=f)
|
||||
fee_sh[f] = round(al._sh(combo5050(dd_["BTC"], dd_["ETH"])), 3)
|
||||
print(f" {2*f*100:.2f}%RT: {fee_sh[f]:+.2f}")
|
||||
fee_ok = fee_sh[0.0015] > 0
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- 6. deflated Sharpe su TUTTI i trial ---------------------------------------------
|
||||
all_sr = [c["met"]["full_sh"] for c in cells]
|
||||
dsr, sr0 = al.deflated_sharpe(al._sh(chosen["d5050"]), all_sr, chosen["d5050"].values)
|
||||
print(f"\n DEFLATED SHARPE: DSR={dsr:.3f} (soglia 0.95) | expected null max Sh {sr0:.2f} "
|
||||
f"| trial totali {len(all_sr)} (event {len(ev_cells)} + wall {len(wall_cells)})")
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- 7. marginal vs TP01 -------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
print("\n MARGINAL vs TP01 (cella scelta in-sample):")
|
||||
marg = al.marginal_vs_tp01(chosen["d5050"])
|
||||
for kk in ("marginal_verdict", "corr_full", "corr_hold", "cand_insample_sharpe",
|
||||
"has_insample_edge", "is_hedge", "robust_oos", "multicut_uplift",
|
||||
"multicut_persistent", "clean_year_uplift", "jackknife_min_uplift",
|
||||
"beta_to_tp01", "resid_sharpe_full", "hedge_yearly_corr",
|
||||
"uplift_tp01_up", "uplift_tp01_down"):
|
||||
print(f" {kk}: {marg.get(kk)}")
|
||||
for w, b in marg.get("blends", {}).items():
|
||||
print(f" blend {w}: full {b['full']} (uplift {b['uplift_full']:+.3f}) "
|
||||
f"hold {b['hold']} (uplift {b['uplift_hold']:+.3f})")
|
||||
earns = (marg.get("marginal_verdict") == "ADDS" and marg.get("robust_oos", False)
|
||||
and marg.get("has_insample_edge", False) and not marg.get("is_hedge", False))
|
||||
dsr_pass = np.isfinite(dsr) and dsr >= 0.95
|
||||
print(f" earns_slot(marginale)={earns} dsr_pass={dsr_pass} "
|
||||
f"earns_slot_honest={earns and dsr_pass and fee_ok}")
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- 8. causalita' + executability ----------------------------------------------------
|
||||
print("\n GUARDIA CAUSALITA' (prefisso 80%/92%, entrambi gli asset):")
|
||||
for a in ASSETS:
|
||||
cz = causality_prefix_check(a, chosen["bar_type"], chosen["dur_h"],
|
||||
chosen["fn"], chosen["params"])
|
||||
print(f" {a}: ok={cz['ok']} max_diff={cz['max_diff']:.2e} checked={cz['checked']}")
|
||||
|
||||
print("\n EXECUTABILITY:")
|
||||
for a in ASSETS:
|
||||
eb = bars[(a, chosen["bar_type"], chosen["dur_h"])]
|
||||
tgt = strat_target(eb.close, eb.high, eb.low, chosen["fn"], chosen["params"],
|
||||
chosen["dur_h"])
|
||||
sc = smallcap_event(df5[a], pos5_from_event(eb.n5, eb.e, tgt))
|
||||
print(f" {a}: {eb.bars_per_day:.2f} barre/g (hold-out {eb.bars_per_day_holdout:.2f}), "
|
||||
f"durata mediana {eb.dur_median_h:.1f}h p5 {eb.dur_p5_h:.1f}h | "
|
||||
f"smallcap $600: modeled {sc['modeled_sh']:+.2f} realistic {sc['realistic_sh']:+.2f} "
|
||||
f"haircut {sc['haircut']:+.3f} ({sc['n_executed']} trade)")
|
||||
|
||||
print(f"\n[done in {time.time()-t0:.0f}s]")
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||
main()
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user