feat(ROT02): riduce il DD diversificando (top_k 2 -> 3)

ROT02 concentrava il book su 2 soli asset (DD 40%). top_k=3 dimezza quasi il DD
(40% -> 26%) e ALZA il ritorno full (+1095 -> +1303%, ret/DD da 27 a 50). Il
vol-target abbassa il DD ma sacrifica ritorno (de-leverage) -> tenuto top_k=3
senza VT. Caveat: OOS di ROT02 cala (+98 -> +68%, DD 12 -> 14%), ma il portafoglio
MASTER migliora lo Sharpe full (3.95 -> 4.23). Applicato a ROT02_dual_momentum.py
e a _rot_daily_equity (usata da PORT01/PORT03). Docstring/CLAUDE/diario aggiornati.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
2026-05-29 00:30:55 +02:00
parent bcccfde9a0
commit 9ebdfc7a7a
6 changed files with 47 additions and 19 deletions
+1 -1
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@@ -170,7 +170,7 @@ def _rot_daily_equity(idx):
for i in range(101, T - 1):
risk_on = btc[i] > bma[i] if not np.isnan(bma[i]) else False
mom = P[i] / P[i - 60] - 1; order = np.argsort(mom)[::-1]
chosen = [j for j in order if mom[j] > 0][:2] if risk_on else []
chosen = [j for j in order if mom[j] > 0][:3] if risk_on else [] # top_k=3 (era 2): DD piu' basso
nw = np.zeros(N)
for j in chosen:
nw[j] = 0.45 / len(chosen)