3 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Adriano bdcef09057 chore: untrack paper_trades runtime data + report per anno/mercato
- data/paper_trades/ rimosso dal tracking (dati runtime, gitignored)
- scripts/analysis/yearly_market_report.py: accuracy/trades/PnL per anno×mercato

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-28 09:46:24 +02:00
Adriano d39c75b103 feat(strategy4): PD01 82.5%/DD2.9%, AD01 81.2%, CM01 81.9% — tutte battono SQ02
Nuove strategie che battono SQ02 (79.7% acc, DD 6.5%):
- PD01 price-volume divergence: 82.5% acc, DD 2.9%, worst year 80%
- CM01 cross-market momentum: 81.9% acc, DD 2.7%
- AD01 adaptive squeeze threshold: 81.2% acc, DD 3.4%
- MT01 (già committato): 82.7% acc, DD 5.9%

Tutte testate su BTC e ETH, 15m e 1h, 9 anni, con fee 0.2% RT.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-28 01:13:17 +02:00
Adriano f42fec9fac feat(strategy4): MT01 squeeze+MTF 82.7% acc — batte SQ02, 6 strategie scartate
Nuova strategia MT01: squeeze 15m + momentum EMA 1h
  BTC 15m: 82.7% acc, 503 trades, DD 5.9%, 9/9 anni, worst 72%
  ETH 15m: 81.2% acc, 404 trades, DD 2.9%, 9/9 anni, worst 73%

Strategie testate e scartate (waste W23-W28):
  IB01 inside bar (58.7%, no edge)
  DC01 donchian (48%, sotto random)
  SB01 retest (52%, no edge)
  MR01 mean reversion RSI (62.9%, DD 29%)
  VO01 volume spike (64.2%, DD 34%)
  HY01 squeeze+MR (64.6%, DD 14.5%)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-28 00:38:11 +02:00
14 changed files with 1871 additions and 0 deletions
+1
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@@ -16,3 +16,4 @@ data/processed/
*.pt *.pt
*.pth *.pth
notebooks/.ipynb_checkpoints/ notebooks/.ipynb_checkpoints/
data/paper_trades/
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@@ -0,0 +1,169 @@
"""Report accuracy per ANNO × MERCATO delle strategie migliori.
Esegue ogni strategia vincente su BTC e ETH e produce tabella
accuracy/trades per ogni anno. Permette di vedere robustezza temporale
e differenze tra mercati.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, ".")
import importlib.util
from pathlib import Path
STRATEGIES_DIR = Path("scripts/strategies")
def load_class(module_file, class_name):
path = STRATEGIES_DIR / f"{module_file}.py"
spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(module_file, path)
mod = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec)
spec.loader.exec_module(mod)
return getattr(mod, class_name)
# (label, module, class, params, hold)
STRATEGIES = [
("SQ02 antifake+vol", "SQ02_squeeze_antifake_vol", "SqueezeAntifakeVol", {}, 3),
("MT01 ema20+vol", "MT01_squeeze_mtf_momentum", "SqueezeMTFMomentum",
{"ema_period": 20, "min_slope": 0.001, "vol_filter": True}, 3),
("PD01 vtb3 vm1.3", "PD01_price_volume_divergence", "PriceVolumeDivergence",
{}, 3),
("CM01 cb6+vol", "CM01_cross_market_momentum", "CrossMarketMomentum",
{"cross_bars": 6, "mom_min": 0.001, "use_vol": True}, 3),
("AD01 lt.65 ht.95", "AD01_adaptive_squeeze", "AdaptiveSqueeze",
{"low_thr": 0.65, "high_thr": 0.95, "use_vol": True}, 3),
]
ASSETS = ["BTC", "ETH"]
TF = "15m"
ALL_YEARS = list(range(2018, 2027))
def run():
results = {} # (label, asset) -> BacktestResult
for label, module, cls_name, params, hold in STRATEGIES:
try:
cls = load_class(module, cls_name)
except Exception as e:
print(f"SKIP {label}: {e}")
continue
strat = cls()
for asset in ASSETS:
try:
r = strat.backtest(asset, TF, hold=hold, **params)
if r:
results[(label, asset)] = r
except Exception as e:
print(f" errore {label} {asset}: {e}")
# ── Tabella ACCURACY per anno × mercato ──────────────────────────
print(f"\n{'=' * 140}")
print(f" ACCURACY PER ANNO × MERCATO — {TF} (fee 0.2% RT, leva 3x, pos 15%)")
print(f"{'=' * 140}")
header = f" {'Strategia':<22s} {'Mkt':>3s}"
for y in ALL_YEARS:
header += f" {y:>7d}"
header += f"{'TOT':>6s} {'DD%':>5s} {'Worst':>10s}"
print(header)
print(f" {'' * 136}")
for label, module, cls_name, params, hold in STRATEGIES:
for asset in ASSETS:
r = results.get((label, asset))
if not r:
continue
yd = {ys.year: ys for ys in r.yearly}
line = f" {label:<22s} {asset:>3s}"
for y in ALL_YEARS:
if y in yd:
line += f" {yd[y].accuracy:>5.0f}%↑" if yd[y].accuracy >= 80 else f" {yd[y].accuracy:>5.0f}% "
else:
line += f" {'':>7s}"
worst = r.worst_year
worst_str = f"{worst.year}({worst.accuracy:.0f}%)" if worst else "N/A"
line += f"{r.accuracy:>5.1f}% {r.max_dd:>4.1f}% {worst_str:>10s}"
print(line)
print(f" {'·' * 136}")
# ── Tabella TRADES per anno × mercato ────────────────────────────
print(f"\n{'=' * 140}")
print(f" NUMERO TRADES PER ANNO × MERCATO")
print(f"{'=' * 140}")
header = f" {'Strategia':<22s} {'Mkt':>3s}"
for y in ALL_YEARS:
header += f" {y:>7d}"
header += f"{'TOT':>6s} {'€/day':>6s}"
print(header)
print(f" {'' * 130}")
for label, module, cls_name, params, hold in STRATEGIES:
for asset in ASSETS:
r = results.get((label, asset))
if not r:
continue
yd = {ys.year: ys for ys in r.yearly}
line = f" {label:<22s} {asset:>3s}"
for y in ALL_YEARS:
if y in yd:
line += f" {yd[y].trades:>7d}"
else:
line += f" {'':>7s}"
line += f"{r.trades:>6d} {r.daily_pnl:>+6.2f}"
print(line)
print(f" {'·' * 130}")
# ── Tabella PnL per anno × mercato ──────────────────────────────
print(f"\n{'=' * 140}")
print(f" PnL € PER ANNO × MERCATO (su €1000, no compounding tra anni)")
print(f"{'=' * 140}")
header = f" {'Strategia':<22s} {'Mkt':>3s}"
for y in ALL_YEARS:
header += f" {y:>7d}"
header += f"{'TOT€':>8s}"
print(header)
print(f" {'' * 132}")
for label, module, cls_name, params, hold in STRATEGIES:
for asset in ASSETS:
r = results.get((label, asset))
if not r:
continue
yd = {ys.year: ys for ys in r.yearly}
line = f" {label:<22s} {asset:>3s}"
for y in ALL_YEARS:
if y in yd:
line += f" {yd[y].pnl:>+7.0f}"
else:
line += f" {'':>7s}"
line += f"{r.pnl:>+8.0f}"
print(line)
print(f" {'·' * 132}")
# ── Sintesi: media per anno (tutte le strategie) ────────────────
print(f"\n{'=' * 140}")
print(f" SINTESI — Accuracy media per anno (tutte le strategie, BTC+ETH)")
print(f"{'=' * 140}")
year_acc = {y: [] for y in ALL_YEARS}
for (label, asset), r in results.items():
for ys in r.yearly:
if ys.trades >= 10:
year_acc[ys.year].append(ys.accuracy)
line_y = f" {'Anno':<22s} "
line_a = f" {'Acc media':<22s} "
for y in ALL_YEARS:
accs = year_acc[y]
avg = sum(accs) / len(accs) if accs else 0
line_y += f" {y:>7d}"
line_a += f" {avg:>6.1f}%"
print(line_y)
print(line_a)
if __name__ == "__main__":
run()
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@@ -0,0 +1,205 @@
"""AD01 — Adaptive Squeeze Threshold.
Problema SQ02: sq_threshold fisso (0.8) non si adatta al regime di volatilità.
Soluzione: threshold adattivo basato su volatilità recente.
Logica:
- Calcola volatilità rolling (std dei rendimenti su finestra 100 barre)
- Confronta con percentile storico (rolling 500 barre)
- Alta vol (>70° percentile) → soglia BASSA (0.65) — squeeze più "lenti"
- Bassa vol (<30° percentile) → soglia ALTA (0.90) — squeeze "stretti"
- Vol media → soglia standard (0.80)
Razionale: in mercati calmi, il BB si stringe molto → sq_threshold alto cattura
segnali migliori. In mercati volatili, bastano squeeze minori per essere significativi.
Anti-overfitting: solo 3 parametri (low_thr, mid_thr, high_thr), logica deterministica.
Eredita antifakeout + volume da SQ02.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, ".")
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats, TF_MINUTES
from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, ema
from src.data.downloader import load_data
def _adaptive_sq_threshold(close: np.ndarray,
vol_window: int = 100,
regime_window: int = 500,
low_thr: float = 0.65,
mid_thr: float = 0.80,
high_thr: float = 0.90) -> np.ndarray:
"""Calcola sq_threshold adattivo per ogni barra."""
n = len(close)
lr = np.diff(np.log(np.where(close <= 0, 1e-10, close)))
vol = np.full(n, np.nan)
for i in range(vol_window, n):
vol[i] = np.std(lr[i - vol_window:i])
# Percentile rolling della volatilità
thresh = np.full(n, mid_thr)
for i in range(regime_window, n):
if np.isnan(vol[i]):
continue
hist = vol[i - regime_window:i]
hist = hist[~np.isnan(hist)]
if len(hist) < 10:
continue
p30 = np.percentile(hist, 30)
p70 = np.percentile(hist, 70)
if vol[i] < p30:
thresh[i] = high_thr # vol bassa → soglia alta
elif vol[i] > p70:
thresh[i] = low_thr # vol alta → soglia bassa
else:
thresh[i] = mid_thr
return thresh
def _detect_adaptive_squeezes(close, high, low, kcr, adaptive_thr,
min_dur: int = 5) -> list[dict]:
"""Squeeze con threshold adattivo per ogni barra."""
events = []
in_sq = False
sq_start = 0
for i in range(1, len(close)):
if np.isnan(kcr[i]) or np.isnan(adaptive_thr[i]):
continue
thr = adaptive_thr[i]
is_sq = kcr[i] < thr
if is_sq and not in_sq:
in_sq = True
sq_start = i
elif not is_sq and in_sq:
in_sq = False
dur = i - sq_start
if dur < min_dur:
continue
events.append({
"idx": i, "dur": dur, "sq_start": sq_start,
"kcr_at_release": kcr[i],
"thr_used": adaptive_thr[i],
})
return events
class AdaptiveSqueeze(Strategy):
name = "AD01_adaptive_squeeze"
description = "Squeeze con threshold adattivo a regime volatilità"
default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
fee_rt = 0.002
leverage = 3.0
position_size = 0.15
initial_capital = 1000.0
def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
**params) -> list[Signal]:
c = df["close"].values
h = df["high"].values
l = df["low"].values
v = df["volume"].values
n = len(c)
bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
low_thr = params.get("low_thr", 0.65)
mid_thr = params.get("mid_thr", 0.80)
high_thr = params.get("high_thr", 0.90)
retrace_limit = params.get("retrace_limit", 0.6)
vol_mult = params.get("vol_multiplier", 1.3)
use_vol = params.get("use_vol", True)
vol_window = params.get("vol_window", 100)
regime_window = params.get("regime_window", 500)
kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, bb_w)
adaptive_thr = _adaptive_sq_threshold(
c, vol_window, regime_window, low_thr, mid_thr, high_thr
)
events = _detect_adaptive_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr, adaptive_thr)
signals = []
for ev in events:
i = ev["idx"]
if i < 1 or i >= n:
continue
first_ret = (c[i] - c[i - 1]) / c[i - 1] if c[i - 1] > 0 else 0
if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
continue
direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
# Anti-fakeout
br = h[i] - l[i]
if br > 0:
if direction == 1 and (h[i] - c[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
continue
elif direction == -1 and (c[i] - l[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
continue
# Volume confirm
if use_vol:
sq_start = ev["sq_start"]
avg_sq_v = np.mean(v[sq_start:i])
if avg_sq_v > 0 and v[i] <= avg_sq_v * vol_mult:
continue
signals.append(Signal(
idx=i,
direction=direction,
entry_price=c[i - 1],
metadata={
"dur": ev["dur"],
"thr_used": ev.get("thr_used", mid_thr),
},
))
return signals
if __name__ == "__main__":
strategy = AdaptiveSqueeze()
configs = [
# low_thr, mid_thr, high_thr, use_vol
{"low_thr": 0.65, "mid_thr": 0.80, "high_thr": 0.90, "use_vol": True},
{"low_thr": 0.65, "mid_thr": 0.80, "high_thr": 0.90, "use_vol": False},
{"low_thr": 0.60, "mid_thr": 0.78, "high_thr": 0.92, "use_vol": True},
{"low_thr": 0.70, "mid_thr": 0.82, "high_thr": 0.90, "use_vol": True},
{"low_thr": 0.65, "mid_thr": 0.80, "high_thr": 0.95, "use_vol": True},
{"low_thr": 0.65, "mid_thr": 0.80, "high_thr": 0.90,
"use_vol": True, "vol_multiplier": 1.2},
]
all_results = []
for cfg in configs:
for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
for hold in [3, 6]:
r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **cfg)
if r and r.trades >= 20:
lbl = (f"AD01 lt={cfg['low_thr']} ht={cfg['high_thr']} "
f"v={cfg['use_vol']} h={hold}")
r.strategy_name = lbl
all_results.append(r)
all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
print(f"\n{'=' * 130}")
print(" AD01 ADAPTIVE SQUEEZE THRESHOLD — TOP 20")
print(f"{'=' * 130}")
print(f" {'Nome':<50s} {'A/T':>7s} {'Trades':>6s} {'Acc':>6s} "
f"{'PnL€':>10s} {'DD%':>6s} {'€/day':>7s} "
f"{'Mkt%':>5s} {'Dur':>5s} {'Anni':>4s}")
print(f" {'' * 120}")
for r in all_results[:20]:
r.print_summary()
if all_results:
all_results[0].print_yearly()
print(f"\n BENCHMARK SQ02: 79.7% acc, 1250t, DD 6.5%, €5.23/day, 9 anni")
print(f" BENCHMARK MT01: 82.7% acc, 503t, DD 5.9%")
@@ -0,0 +1,183 @@
"""CM01 — Cross-Market Momentum Filter.
Squeeze su asset primario, entra SOLO se l'altro asset (BTC↔ETH)
mostra momentum short-term nella STESSA direzione.
Differenza da MT01: MT01 usa EMA slope su 1h (trend lento).
CM01 usa rendimento grezzo degli ultimi 3-6 bar sull'asset cross
(momentum veloce, stesso timeframe).
Razionale: BTC e ETH sono altamente correlati ma non perfettamente.
Se BTC fa squeeze breakout UP e anche ETH sta salendo (momentum 3-6 bar),
la probabilità di continuazione è maggiore perché c'è consenso di mercato.
Anti-overfitting: 1 parametro chiave (cross_bars 3-6), logica deterministica.
Eredita antifakeout + volume da SQ02.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, ".")
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats
from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes
from src.data.downloader import load_data
class CrossMarketMomentum(Strategy):
name = "CM01_cross_momentum"
description = "Squeeze + cross-asset short-term momentum filter"
default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
fee_rt = 0.002
leverage = 3.0
position_size = 0.15
initial_capital = 1000.0
# Map asset → cross asset
_CROSS = {"BTC": "ETH", "ETH": "BTC"}
def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
**params) -> list[Signal]:
"""Genera segnali con cross-market momentum."""
c = df["close"].values
h = df["high"].values
l = df["low"].values
v = df["volume"].values
n = len(c)
ts_ms = df["timestamp"].values
asset = params.get("asset", "BTC")
tf = params.get("tf", "15m")
bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
retrace_limit = params.get("retrace_limit", 0.6)
vol_mult = params.get("vol_multiplier", 1.3)
use_vol = params.get("use_vol", True)
cross_bars = params.get("cross_bars", 4) # barre momentum cross
mom_min = params.get("mom_min", 0.0) # momentum minimo (0 = solo direzione)
# Carica cross asset
cross_asset = self._CROSS.get(asset)
if cross_asset is None:
return []
try:
df_cross = load_data(cross_asset, tf)
except Exception:
return []
c_cross = df_cross["close"].values
ts_cross_ms = df_cross["timestamp"].values
n_cross = len(c_cross)
# Momentum cross: rendimento log su cross_bars barre
cross_mom = np.full(n_cross, np.nan)
for i in range(cross_bars, n_cross):
if c_cross[i - cross_bars] > 0:
cross_mom[i] = np.log(c_cross[i] / c_cross[i - cross_bars])
kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, bb_w)
events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr, sq_thr)
signals = []
for ev in events:
i = ev["idx"]
if i < 1 or i >= n:
continue
first_ret = (c[i] - c[i - 1]) / c[i - 1] if c[i - 1] > 0 else 0
if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
continue
direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
# Anti-fakeout
br = h[i] - l[i]
if br > 0:
if direction == 1 and (h[i] - c[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
continue
elif direction == -1 and (c[i] - l[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
continue
# Volume confirm
if use_vol:
sq_start = ev["sq_start"]
avg_sq_v = np.mean(v[sq_start:i])
if avg_sq_v > 0 and v[i] <= avg_sq_v * vol_mult:
continue
# Cross-market momentum: trova indice cross corrispondente
i_cross = np.searchsorted(ts_cross_ms, ts_ms[i]) - 1
if i_cross < cross_bars or i_cross >= n_cross:
continue
mom = cross_mom[i_cross]
if np.isnan(mom):
continue
# Filtra per direzione concordante
if direction == 1 and mom <= mom_min:
continue
if direction == -1 and mom >= -mom_min:
continue
signals.append(Signal(
idx=i,
direction=direction,
entry_price=c[i - 1],
metadata={
"dur": ev["dur"],
"cross_mom": float(mom),
},
))
return signals
if __name__ == "__main__":
strategy = CrossMarketMomentum()
configs = [
# cross_bars, mom_min, use_vol
{"cross_bars": 3, "mom_min": 0.0, "use_vol": True},
{"cross_bars": 4, "mom_min": 0.0, "use_vol": True},
{"cross_bars": 6, "mom_min": 0.0, "use_vol": True},
{"cross_bars": 4, "mom_min": 0.001, "use_vol": True},
{"cross_bars": 4, "mom_min": 0.002, "use_vol": True},
{"cross_bars": 4, "mom_min": 0.0, "use_vol": False},
{"cross_bars": 3, "mom_min": 0.001, "use_vol": False},
{"cross_bars": 6, "mom_min": 0.001, "use_vol": True},
]
all_results = []
for cfg in configs:
for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
for hold in [3, 6]:
r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold,
cross_bars=cfg["cross_bars"],
mom_min=cfg["mom_min"],
use_vol=cfg["use_vol"])
if r and r.trades >= 20:
lbl = (f"CM01 cb={cfg['cross_bars']} "
f"mm={cfg['mom_min']} v={cfg['use_vol']} h={hold}")
r.strategy_name = lbl
all_results.append(r)
all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
print(f"\n{'=' * 130}")
print(" CM01 CROSS-MARKET MOMENTUM — TOP 20")
print(f"{'=' * 130}")
print(f" {'Nome':<50s} {'A/T':>7s} {'Trades':>6s} {'Acc':>6s} "
f"{'PnL€':>10s} {'DD%':>6s} {'€/day':>7s} "
f"{'Mkt%':>5s} {'Dur':>5s} {'Anni':>4s}")
print(f" {'' * 120}")
for r in all_results[:20]:
r.print_summary()
if all_results:
all_results[0].print_yearly()
print(f"\n BENCHMARK SQ02: 79.7% acc, 1250t, DD 6.5%, €5.23/day, 9 anni")
print(f" BENCHMARK MT01: 82.7% acc, 503t, DD 5.9%")
@@ -0,0 +1,259 @@
"""MT01 — Squeeze + Multi-Timeframe Momentum.
Problema SQ02: entra al breakout 15m ma non sa se il trend 1h è allineato.
Soluzione: squeeze su 15m + conferma momentum su 1h.
Anti-overfitting: usa solo 2 indicatori (squeeze + EMA slope),
nessun parametro complesso.
IN:
- OHLCV 15m + 1h per lo stesso asset
- Parametri: sq_threshold, ema_period_1h, min_slope
OUT:
- Signal al breakout 15m confermato da trend 1h
- BacktestResult
Logica:
1. Squeeze release su 15m (come SQ01)
2. Antifakeout filter (come SQ02)
3. Check 1h: EMA slope positiva per long, negativa per short
4. Check 1h: prezzo sopra/sotto EMA per conferma trend
5. Entra solo se 15m e 1h concordano
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, ".")
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats, TF_MINUTES
from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes, ema
from src.data.downloader import load_data
class SqueezeMTFMomentum(Strategy):
name = "MT01_squeeze_mtf"
description = "Squeeze 15m + momentum trend 1h — multi-timeframe"
default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
default_timeframes = ["15m"]
fee_rt = 0.002
def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
"""Genera segnali squeeze 15m confermati da trend 1h."""
c = df["close"].values
h = df["high"].values
l = df["low"].values
v = df["volume"].values
n = len(c)
asset = params.get("asset", "BTC")
sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
ema_period = params.get("ema_period", 50)
min_slope_val = params.get("min_slope", 0.001)
use_antifake = params.get("antifake", True)
use_vol = params.get("vol_filter", False)
kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, 14)
events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr, sq_thr)
df_1h = load_data(asset, "1h")
c1h = df_1h["close"].values
ts1h_ms = df_1h["timestamp"].values
n1h = len(c1h)
ema_1h = ema(c1h, ema_period)
ema_slope_arr = np.full(n1h, np.nan)
for i in range(5, n1h):
if not np.isnan(ema_1h[i]) and not np.isnan(ema_1h[i-5]) and ema_1h[i-5] > 0:
ema_slope_arr[i] = (ema_1h[i] - ema_1h[i-5]) / ema_1h[i-5]
ts_ms = df["timestamp"].values
signals = []
for ev in events:
i = ev["idx"]
if i < 1 or i >= n:
continue
first_ret = (c[i] - c[i-1]) / c[i-1] if c[i-1] > 0 else 0
if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
continue
if use_antifake:
br = h[i] - l[i]
if br > 0:
if c[i] > c[i-1] and (h[i] - c[i]) / br > 0.6:
continue
elif c[i] <= c[i-1] and (c[i] - l[i]) / br > 0.6:
continue
if use_vol:
avg_v = np.mean(v[ev["sq_start"]:i])
if avg_v > 0 and v[i] <= avg_v * 1.3:
continue
direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
i1h = np.searchsorted(ts1h_ms, ts_ms[i]) - 1
if i1h < ema_period or i1h >= n1h:
continue
if np.isnan(ema_1h[i1h]) or np.isnan(ema_slope_arr[i1h]):
continue
if direction == 1:
if c1h[i1h] < ema_1h[i1h] or ema_slope_arr[i1h] < min_slope_val:
continue
else:
if c1h[i1h] > ema_1h[i1h] or ema_slope_arr[i1h] > -min_slope_val:
continue
signals.append(Signal(idx=i, direction=direction, entry_price=c[i-1]))
return signals
def backtest(self, asset, tf="15m", hold=3, **params):
sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
ema_period = params.get("ema_period", 50)
min_slope = params.get("min_slope", 0.001)
use_antifake = params.get("antifake", True)
use_vol = params.get("vol_filter", False)
# Carica 15m e 1h
df_15m = load_data(asset, "15m")
df_1h = load_data(asset, "1h")
c15 = df_15m["close"].values
h15 = df_15m["high"].values
l15 = df_15m["low"].values
v15 = df_15m["volume"].values
n15 = len(c15)
ts15 = pd.to_datetime(df_15m["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
ts15_ms = df_15m["timestamp"].values
c1h = df_1h["close"].values
ts1h_ms = df_1h["timestamp"].values
n1h = len(c1h)
kcr = keltner_ratio(c15, h15, l15, 14)
events = detect_squeezes(c15, h15, l15, kcr, sq_thr)
# EMA su 1h
ema_1h = ema(c1h, ema_period)
# EMA slope (variazione percentuale su 5 barre)
ema_slope = np.full(n1h, np.nan)
for i in range(5, n1h):
if not np.isnan(ema_1h[i]) and not np.isnan(ema_1h[i - 5]) and ema_1h[i - 5] > 0:
ema_slope[i] = (ema_1h[i] - ema_1h[i - 5]) / ema_1h[i - 5]
yearly = {}
capital = float(self.initial_capital)
peak = capital
max_dd = 0.0
total_bars = 0
for ev in events:
i = ev["idx"]
if i + hold + 1 >= n15 or i < 1:
continue
first_ret = (c15[i] - c15[i - 1]) / c15[i - 1] if c15[i - 1] > 0 else 0
if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
continue
# Antifake
if use_antifake:
br = h15[i] - l15[i]
if br > 0:
if c15[i] > c15[i - 1] and (h15[i] - c15[i]) / br > 0.6:
continue
elif c15[i] <= c15[i - 1] and (c15[i] - l15[i]) / br > 0.6:
continue
# Volume filter
if use_vol:
avg_v = np.mean(v15[ev["sq_start"]:i])
if avg_v > 0 and v15[i] <= avg_v * 1.3:
continue
direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
# Trova indice 1h corrispondente
i1h = np.searchsorted(ts1h_ms, ts15_ms[i]) - 1
if i1h < ema_period or i1h >= n1h or np.isnan(ema_1h[i1h]) or np.isnan(ema_slope[i1h]):
continue
# Conferma trend 1h
if direction == 1:
if c1h[i1h] < ema_1h[i1h]:
continue
if ema_slope[i1h] < min_slope:
continue
else:
if c1h[i1h] > ema_1h[i1h]:
continue
if ema_slope[i1h] > -min_slope:
continue
entry = c15[i - 1]
exit_price = c15[min(i + hold - 1, n15 - 1)]
actual = (exit_price - entry) / entry * direction
net = actual * self.leverage - self.fee_rt * self.leverage
capital += capital * self.position_size * net
capital = max(capital, 10)
if capital > peak: peak = capital
dd = (peak - capital) / peak
max_dd = max(max_dd, dd)
total_bars += hold
year = ts15.iloc[i].year
if year not in yearly:
yearly[year] = {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnl": 0.0}
yearly[year]["t"] += 1
if actual > 0: yearly[year]["w"] += 1
yearly[year]["pnl"] += net * self.initial_capital
all_t = sum(d["t"] for d in yearly.values())
all_w = sum(d["w"] for d in yearly.values())
if all_t == 0:
return None
yearly_stats = [YearlyStats(y, d["t"], d["w"], d["pnl"]) for y, d in sorted(yearly.items())]
return BacktestResult(
strategy_name=self.name, asset=asset, timeframe="15m", params=params,
trades=all_t, wins=all_w, pnl=sum(d["pnl"] for d in yearly.values()),
capital=capital, initial_capital=self.initial_capital,
max_dd=max_dd * 100, time_in_market_pct=total_bars / n15 * 100,
avg_trade_duration_h=hold * 15 / 60, years_active=len(yearly), yearly=yearly_stats,
)
if __name__ == "__main__":
strategy = SqueezeMTFMomentum()
configs = [
("ema50 sl0.1%", {"ema_period": 50, "min_slope": 0.001}),
("ema50 sl0.05%", {"ema_period": 50, "min_slope": 0.0005}),
("ema50 sl0.2%", {"ema_period": 50, "min_slope": 0.002}),
("ema20 sl0.1%", {"ema_period": 20, "min_slope": 0.001}),
("ema50 sl0.1%+vol", {"ema_period": 50, "min_slope": 0.001, "vol_filter": True}),
("ema20 sl0.1%+vol", {"ema_period": 20, "min_slope": 0.001, "vol_filter": True}),
("ema50 noAF", {"ema_period": 50, "min_slope": 0.001, "antifake": False}),
("ema100 sl0.05%", {"ema_period": 100, "min_slope": 0.0005}),
]
all_results = []
for label, params in configs:
for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
for hold in [3, 6]:
r = strategy.backtest(asset, "15m", hold=hold, **params)
if r and r.trades >= 30:
r.strategy_name = f"MT01 {label} h={hold}"
all_results.append(r)
all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
print(f"\n{'=' * 130}")
print(f" MT01 SQUEEZE + MTF MOMENTUM — TOP 20")
print(f"{'=' * 130}")
for r in all_results[:20]:
r.print_summary()
if all_results:
all_results[0].print_yearly()
print(f"\n BENCHMARK SQ02: 79.7% acc, 1250t, DD 6.5%, 9 anni, €5.23/day")
@@ -0,0 +1,158 @@
"""PD01 — Price-Volume Divergence Squeeze.
Estende SQ02 con volume TREND come filtro:
- Breakout UP con volume CRESCENTE (ultimi 3 bar vs media squeeze) → ENTRA
- Breakout UP con volume CALANTE → SALTA (divergenza bearish)
- Viceversa per short
Logica anti-fakeout:
1. Squeeze rilascio (come SQ02)
2. Anti-fakeout candela (come SQ02)
3. Volume al breakout > media squeeze (come SQ02)
4. NUOVO: volume trending UP nelle ultime 3 barre prima del breakout
Parametri semplici, nessun overfitting.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, ".")
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes
class PriceVolumeDivergence(Strategy):
name = "PD01_price_vol_div"
description = "Squeeze + antifakeout + volume trend confirmation"
default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
fee_rt = 0.002
leverage = 3.0
position_size = 0.15
initial_capital = 1000.0
def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
**params) -> list[Signal]:
c = df["close"].values
h = df["high"].values
l = df["low"].values
v = df["volume"].values
n = len(c)
bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
retrace_limit = params.get("retrace_limit", 0.6)
vol_mult = params.get("vol_multiplier", 1.3)
vol_trend_bars = params.get("vol_trend_bars", 3) # barre per trend volume
kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, bb_w)
events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr, sq_thr)
signals = []
for ev in events:
i = ev["idx"]
if i < vol_trend_bars + 1 or i >= n:
continue
# Direzione breakout
first_ret = (c[i] - c[i - 1]) / c[i - 1] if c[i - 1] > 0 else 0
if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
continue
direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
# Anti-fakeout
br = h[i] - l[i]
if br > 0:
if direction == 1 and (h[i] - c[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
continue
elif direction == -1 and (c[i] - l[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
continue
# Volume al breakout > media squeeze
sq_start = ev["sq_start"]
avg_sq_v = np.mean(v[sq_start:i])
if avg_sq_v <= 0 or v[i] <= avg_sq_v * vol_mult:
continue
# Volume TREND: slope delle ultime vol_trend_bars barre
# Usa regressione lineare semplice (rank correlation del volume)
recent_v = v[i - vol_trend_bars:i + 1] # include breakout bar
if len(recent_v) < vol_trend_bars:
continue
# slope: media seconda metà vs prima metà
mid = len(recent_v) // 2
v_early = np.mean(recent_v[:mid])
v_late = np.mean(recent_v[mid:])
vol_trending_up = v_late > v_early
vol_trending_down = v_early > v_late
# Concordanza: long richiede volume trending up, short trending down
if direction == 1 and not vol_trending_up:
continue
if direction == -1 and not vol_trending_down:
continue
signals.append(Signal(
idx=i,
direction=direction,
entry_price=c[i - 1],
metadata={
"dur": ev["dur"],
"vol_ratio": v[i] / avg_sq_v if avg_sq_v > 0 else 0,
"vol_trend": v_late / v_early if v_early > 0 else 1,
},
))
return signals
if __name__ == "__main__":
strategy = PriceVolumeDivergence()
configs = [
{"bb_window": 14, "sq_threshold": 0.8, "retrace_limit": 0.6,
"vol_multiplier": 1.3, "vol_trend_bars": 3},
{"bb_window": 14, "sq_threshold": 0.8, "retrace_limit": 0.6,
"vol_multiplier": 1.2, "vol_trend_bars": 3},
{"bb_window": 14, "sq_threshold": 0.8, "retrace_limit": 0.6,
"vol_multiplier": 1.3, "vol_trend_bars": 5},
{"bb_window": 14, "sq_threshold": 0.8, "retrace_limit": 0.5,
"vol_multiplier": 1.3, "vol_trend_bars": 3},
{"bb_window": 14, "sq_threshold": 0.75, "retrace_limit": 0.6,
"vol_multiplier": 1.3, "vol_trend_bars": 3},
{"bb_window": 20, "sq_threshold": 0.8, "retrace_limit": 0.6,
"vol_multiplier": 1.3, "vol_trend_bars": 3},
]
all_results = []
for cfg in configs:
for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
for hold in [3, 6]:
r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **cfg)
if r and r.trades >= 20:
lbl = (f"PD01 vtb={cfg['vol_trend_bars']} "
f"vm={cfg['vol_multiplier']} "
f"sq={cfg['sq_threshold']} h={hold}")
r.strategy_name = lbl
all_results.append(r)
all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
print(f"\n{'=' * 130}")
print(" PD01 PRICE-VOLUME DIVERGENCE — TOP 20")
print(f"{'=' * 130}")
print(f" {'Nome':<50s} {'A/T':>7s} {'Trades':>6s} {'Acc':>6s} "
f"{'PnL€':>10s} {'DD%':>6s} {'€/day':>7s} "
f"{'Mkt%':>5s} {'Dur':>5s} {'Anni':>4s}")
print(f" {'' * 120}")
for r in all_results[:20]:
r.print_summary()
if all_results:
all_results[0].print_yearly()
print(f"\n BENCHMARK SQ02: 79.7% acc, 1250t, DD 6.5%, €5.23/day, 9 anni")
print(f" BENCHMARK MT01: 82.7% acc, 503t, DD 5.9%")
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"""IB01 — Inside Bar Breakout.
Pattern di compressione a singola candela: quando una barra ha high < prev high
E low > prev low, il prezzo si sta comprimendo. Al breakout del range della
inside bar, segui la direzione.
17% delle candele 15m sono inside bars → frequenza altissima.
IN:
- OHLCV DataFrame
- Parametri: min_consecutive (N inside bars consecutivi),
volume_filter, breakout_confirm
OUT:
- Signal al breakout del range dell'inside bar
- BacktestResult
Logica:
1. Identifica N inside bars consecutivi (compressione)
2. Quando il prezzo rompe il range → entra nella direzione del breakout
3. Filtro: volume al breakout > media
4. Hold fisso
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, ".")
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
class InsideBarBreakout(Strategy):
name = "IB01_inside_bar"
description = "Inside bar breakout — compressione a singola candela"
default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
fee_rt = 0.002
def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
c = df["close"].values
h = df["high"].values
l = df["low"].values
v = df["volume"].values
n = len(c)
min_consec = params.get("min_consecutive", 2)
use_vol = params.get("vol_filter", False)
min_range_pct = params.get("min_range_pct", 0.002)
# Volume media
vol_ma = np.full(n, np.nan)
for i in range(20, n):
vol_ma[i] = np.mean(v[i - 20:i])
signals = []
consec = 0
mother_high = 0.0
mother_low = 0.0
for i in range(1, n - 1):
is_inside = h[i] <= h[i - 1] and l[i] >= l[i - 1]
if is_inside:
if consec == 0:
mother_high = h[i - 1]
mother_low = l[i - 1]
consec += 1
else:
if consec >= min_consec:
range_pct = (mother_high - mother_low) / mother_low if mother_low > 0 else 0
if range_pct < min_range_pct:
consec = 0
continue
# Breakout detection sulla barra corrente
if c[i] > mother_high:
direction = 1
elif c[i] < mother_low:
direction = -1
else:
consec = 0
continue
# Volume filter
if use_vol and not np.isnan(vol_ma[i]):
if v[i] < vol_ma[i] * 1.2:
consec = 0
continue
signals.append(Signal(
idx=i, direction=direction, entry_price=c[i],
metadata={"consec": consec, "range_pct": round(range_pct * 100, 3)},
))
consec = 0
return signals
if __name__ == "__main__":
strategy = InsideBarBreakout()
configs = [
("2ib", {"min_consecutive": 2}),
("3ib", {"min_consecutive": 3}),
("4ib", {"min_consecutive": 4}),
("2ib+vol", {"min_consecutive": 2, "vol_filter": True}),
("3ib+vol", {"min_consecutive": 3, "vol_filter": True}),
("2ib r>0.3%", {"min_consecutive": 2, "min_range_pct": 0.003}),
("3ib r>0.3%", {"min_consecutive": 3, "min_range_pct": 0.003}),
]
all_results = []
for label, params in configs:
for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
for hold in [3, 6]:
r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **params)
if r and r.trades >= 30:
r.strategy_name = f"IB01 {label} h={hold}"
all_results.append(r)
all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
print(f"\n{'=' * 120}")
print(f" IB01 INSIDE BAR BREAKOUT — TOP 20")
print(f"{'=' * 120}")
for r in all_results[:20]:
r.print_summary()
if all_results:
all_results[0].print_yearly()
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"""DC01 — Donchian Channel Breakout con filtri.
Trend-following classico: quando il prezzo rompe il massimo/minimo degli
ultimi N periodi, entra nella direzione del breakout.
Completamente diverso dallo squeeze (che usa Bollinger/Keltner).
Donchian cattura breakout di RANGE, non di VOLATILITÀ.
IN:
- OHLCV DataFrame
- Parametri: channel_period, volume_filter, atr_stop, trend_filter
OUT:
- Signal al breakout del canale Donchian
- BacktestResult
Logica:
1. Donchian upper = max(high, N periodi), lower = min(low, N periodi)
2. Close > upper → LONG (breakout rialzista)
3. Close < lower → SHORT (breakout ribassista)
4. Filtri: volume, trend EMA, ATR minimo
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, ".")
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
class DonchianBreakout(Strategy):
name = "DC01_donchian"
description = "Donchian Channel breakout — trend-following su range"
default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
fee_rt = 0.002
def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
c = df["close"].values
h = df["high"].values
l = df["low"].values
v = df["volume"].values
n = len(c)
period = params.get("channel_period", 48)
use_vol = params.get("vol_filter", False)
use_trend = params.get("trend_filter", False)
cooldown = params.get("cooldown", 6)
# EMA per trend filter
ema_50 = np.full(n, np.nan)
k = 2 / 51
ema_50[49] = np.mean(c[:50])
for i in range(50, n):
ema_50[i] = c[i] * k + ema_50[i - 1] * (1 - k)
# Volume media
vol_ma = np.full(n, np.nan)
for i in range(20, n):
vol_ma[i] = np.mean(v[i - 20:i])
signals = []
last_signal_idx = -cooldown
for i in range(period + 1, n):
if i - last_signal_idx < cooldown:
continue
upper = np.max(h[i - period:i])
lower = np.min(l[i - period:i])
direction = 0
if c[i] > upper:
direction = 1
elif c[i] < lower:
direction = -1
if direction == 0:
continue
# Trend filter: breakout must align with EMA trend
if use_trend and not np.isnan(ema_50[i]):
if direction == 1 and c[i] < ema_50[i]:
continue
if direction == -1 and c[i] > ema_50[i]:
continue
# Volume filter
if use_vol and not np.isnan(vol_ma[i]):
if v[i] < vol_ma[i] * 1.3:
continue
signals.append(Signal(
idx=i, direction=direction, entry_price=c[i],
metadata={"upper": float(upper), "lower": float(lower)},
))
last_signal_idx = i
return signals
if __name__ == "__main__":
strategy = DonchianBreakout()
configs = [
("p=24", {"channel_period": 24}),
("p=48", {"channel_period": 48}),
("p=96", {"channel_period": 96}),
("p=48+trend", {"channel_period": 48, "trend_filter": True}),
("p=48+vol", {"channel_period": 48, "vol_filter": True}),
("p=48+t+v", {"channel_period": 48, "trend_filter": True, "vol_filter": True}),
("p=96+t+v", {"channel_period": 96, "trend_filter": True, "vol_filter": True}),
]
all_results = []
for label, params in configs:
for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
for hold in [3, 6, 12]:
r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **params)
if r and r.trades >= 30:
r.strategy_name = f"DC01 {label} h={hold}"
all_results.append(r)
all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
print(f"\n{'=' * 120}")
print(f" DC01 DONCHIAN BREAKOUT — TOP 20")
print(f"{'=' * 120}")
for r in all_results[:20]:
r.print_summary()
if all_results:
all_results[0].print_yearly()
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"""SB01 — Squeeze Breakout con Retest.
Il problema di SQ01/SQ02: entri al breakout, ma molti breakout sono fakeout.
Soluzione: aspetta il RETEST. Dopo il breakout, il prezzo spesso torna a
testare il livello di breakout prima di continuare.
Più selettivo di SQ02 → meno trade ma più accurati.
Anti-overfitting: meccanismo strutturale (retest è fenomeno di mercato reale).
IN:
- OHLCV DataFrame
- Parametri: bb_window, sq_threshold, retest_window (quante barre aspettare
il retest), retest_tolerance (quanto può tornare indietro)
OUT:
- Signal al retest confermato (non al breakout iniziale)
- BacktestResult
Logica:
1. Rileva squeeze release (come SQ01)
2. NON entrare subito — segna direzione e livello di breakout
3. Nelle N barre successive, aspetta che il prezzo torni verso il livello
4. Se il prezzo torna nel range di tolleranza e poi rimbalza → ENTRA
5. Se il prezzo non torna → skip (momentum troppo forte, entry persa)
6. Se il prezzo sfonda il livello → fakeout confermato, skip
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, ".")
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes
class SqueezeBreakoutRetest(Strategy):
name = "SB01_squeeze_retest"
description = "Squeeze breakout con retest — entra solo dopo pullback confermato"
default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
fee_rt = 0.002
def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
c = df["close"].values
h = df["high"].values
l = df["low"].values
v = df["volume"].values
n = len(c)
bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
retest_window = params.get("retest_window", 8)
retest_tol = params.get("retest_tolerance", 0.5)
use_vol = params.get("vol_filter", False)
kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, bb_w)
events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr, sq_thr)
vol_ma = np.full(n, np.nan)
for i in range(20, n):
vol_ma[i] = np.mean(v[i - 20:i])
signals = []
for ev in events:
brk_idx = ev["idx"]
if brk_idx + retest_window + 3 >= n or brk_idx < 1:
continue
# Direzione breakout
first_ret = (c[brk_idx] - c[brk_idx - 1]) / c[brk_idx - 1]
if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
continue
direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
breakout_level = c[brk_idx - 1]
breakout_move = abs(first_ret)
# Aspetta retest nelle prossime N barre
retest_found = False
retest_idx = -1
for j in range(brk_idx + 1, min(brk_idx + retest_window + 1, n)):
if direction == 1:
# Long: il prezzo deve tornare GIÙ verso breakout_level
pullback = (h[brk_idx] - l[j]) / (h[brk_idx] - breakout_level) if h[brk_idx] > breakout_level else 0
if pullback >= retest_tol:
# Tornato abbastanza — ora deve rimbalzare
if c[j] > breakout_level:
retest_found = True
retest_idx = j
break
elif c[j] < breakout_level * 0.998:
# Sfondato sotto → fakeout
break
else:
# Short: il prezzo deve tornare SU verso breakout_level
pullback = (h[j] - l[brk_idx]) / (breakout_level - l[brk_idx]) if breakout_level > l[brk_idx] else 0
if pullback >= retest_tol:
if c[j] < breakout_level:
retest_found = True
retest_idx = j
break
elif c[j] > breakout_level * 1.002:
break
if not retest_found or retest_idx < 0:
continue
# Volume filter al retest
if use_vol and not np.isnan(vol_ma[retest_idx]):
if v[retest_idx] < vol_ma[retest_idx] * 0.8:
continue
signals.append(Signal(
idx=retest_idx, direction=direction,
entry_price=c[retest_idx],
metadata={
"breakout_idx": brk_idx,
"retest_bars": retest_idx - brk_idx,
"breakout_move": round(breakout_move * 100, 3),
},
))
return signals
if __name__ == "__main__":
strategy = SqueezeBreakoutRetest()
configs = [
("rt8 tol50%", {"retest_window": 8, "retest_tolerance": 0.5}),
("rt6 tol50%", {"retest_window": 6, "retest_tolerance": 0.5}),
("rt10 tol50%", {"retest_window": 10, "retest_tolerance": 0.5}),
("rt8 tol30%", {"retest_window": 8, "retest_tolerance": 0.3}),
("rt8 tol70%", {"retest_window": 8, "retest_tolerance": 0.7}),
("rt8 tol50%+vol", {"retest_window": 8, "retest_tolerance": 0.5, "vol_filter": True}),
("rt6 tol30%", {"retest_window": 6, "retest_tolerance": 0.3}),
("rt12 tol50%", {"retest_window": 12, "retest_tolerance": 0.5}),
]
all_results = []
for label, params in configs:
for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
for hold in [3, 6]:
r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **params)
if r and r.trades >= 30:
r.strategy_name = f"SB01 {label} h={hold}"
all_results.append(r)
all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
print(f"\n{'=' * 130}")
print(f" SB01 SQUEEZE BREAKOUT RETEST — TOP 25")
print(f"{'=' * 130}")
for r in all_results[:25]:
r.print_summary()
if all_results:
all_results[0].print_yearly()
# Confronto con benchmark
print(f"\n BENCHMARK SQ02: 79.7% acc, 1250 trades, DD 6.5%, 9/9 anni")
+148
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@@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
"""MR01 — Mean Reversion da estremi RSI.
Approccio opposto allo squeeze: quando il prezzo va troppo lontano troppo veloce,
scommetti che torni indietro. Autocorrelazione lag-1 negativa (-0.21 BTC, -0.35 ETH)
conferma che il mercato a 15m è mean-reverting.
IN:
- OHLCV DataFrame
- Parametri: rsi_period, rsi_oversold, rsi_overbought, hold_bars,
volume_filter (volume > N× media), atr_filter (move > N×ATR)
OUT:
- Signal: long quando RSI < oversold, short quando RSI > overbought
- BacktestResult con metriche
Logica:
1. RSI scende sotto soglia oversold → LONG (prezzo tornerà su)
2. RSI sale sopra soglia overbought → SHORT (prezzo tornerà giù)
3. Filtro opzionale: volume spike conferma l'eccesso
4. Filtro opzionale: move recente > N×ATR (eccesso di prezzo)
5. Hold fisso, poi chiudi
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, ".")
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
def rsi(close, period=14):
delta = np.diff(close)
gain = np.where(delta > 0, delta, 0)
loss = np.where(delta < 0, -delta, 0)
result = np.full(len(close), 50.0)
if len(gain) < period:
return result
ag = np.mean(gain[:period])
al = np.mean(loss[:period])
for i in range(period, len(delta)):
ag = (ag * (period - 1) + gain[i]) / period
al = (al * (period - 1) + loss[i]) / period
result[i + 1] = 100 if al == 0 else 100 - 100 / (1 + ag / al)
return result
class MeanReversionRSI(Strategy):
name = "MR01_mean_reversion_rsi"
description = "Mean reversion da estremi RSI — fade eccessi direzionali"
default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
fee_rt = 0.002
def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
c = df["close"].values
h = df["high"].values
l = df["low"].values
v = df["volume"].values
n = len(c)
rsi_period = params.get("rsi_period", 14)
oversold = params.get("rsi_oversold", 25)
overbought = params.get("rsi_overbought", 75)
use_vol_filter = params.get("vol_filter", False)
use_atr_filter = params.get("atr_filter", False)
cooldown = params.get("cooldown", 4)
rsi_vals = rsi(c, rsi_period)
# Volume media rolling
vol_ma = np.full(n, np.nan)
for i in range(20, n):
vol_ma[i] = np.mean(v[i - 20:i])
# ATR
tr = np.maximum(h[1:] - l[1:],
np.maximum(np.abs(h[1:] - c[:-1]), np.abs(l[1:] - c[:-1])))
atr_vals = np.full(n, np.nan)
for i in range(15, len(tr)):
atr_vals[i + 1] = np.mean(tr[i - 14:i])
signals = []
last_signal_idx = -cooldown
for i in range(20, n):
if i - last_signal_idx < cooldown:
continue
direction = 0
if rsi_vals[i] < oversold:
direction = 1 # oversold → long
elif rsi_vals[i] > overbought:
direction = -1 # overbought → short
if direction == 0:
continue
# Volume filter
if use_vol_filter and not np.isnan(vol_ma[i]):
if v[i] < vol_ma[i] * 1.5:
continue
# ATR filter: il move recente deve essere > 1.5× ATR
if use_atr_filter and not np.isnan(atr_vals[i]):
recent_move = abs(c[i] - c[max(0, i - 3)]) / c[max(0, i - 3)]
if recent_move < atr_vals[i] / c[i] * 1.5:
continue
signals.append(Signal(
idx=i, direction=direction, entry_price=c[i],
metadata={"rsi": float(rsi_vals[i])},
))
last_signal_idx = i
return signals
if __name__ == "__main__":
strategy = MeanReversionRSI()
configs = [
("RSI25/75", {}),
("RSI20/80", {"rsi_oversold": 20, "rsi_overbought": 80}),
("RSI25/75+vol", {"vol_filter": True}),
("RSI20/80+vol", {"rsi_oversold": 20, "rsi_overbought": 80, "vol_filter": True}),
("RSI25/75+atr", {"atr_filter": True}),
("RSI20/80+vol+atr", {"rsi_oversold": 20, "rsi_overbought": 80, "vol_filter": True, "atr_filter": True}),
]
all_results = []
for label, params in configs:
for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
for hold in [3, 6]:
r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **params)
if r and r.trades >= 30:
r.strategy_name = f"MR01 {label} h={hold}"
all_results.append(r)
all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
print(f"\n{'=' * 120}")
print(f" MR01 MEAN REVERSION RSI — TOP 20")
print(f"{'=' * 120}")
for r in all_results[:20]:
r.print_summary()
if all_results:
all_results[0].print_yearly()
+133
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@@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
"""VO01 — Volume Spike Reversal.
Quando il volume esplode (>3× media) con un forte move direzionale,
il mercato è in eccesso → fade il move (mean reversion).
Diverso dallo squeeze: non cerca compressione, cerca ECCESSO.
Il volume spike indica panico/euforia → reversal probabile.
IN:
- OHLCV DataFrame
- Parametri: vol_mult (3), move_threshold (0.005), hold
OUT:
- Signal: fade la direzione del volume spike
- BacktestResult
Logica:
1. Volume > vol_mult × media 20 periodi
2. Move nella candela > move_threshold (0.5%)
3. Direzione: opposta al move (mean reversion)
4. Filtro: non entrare se già in trend forte (EMA slope)
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, ".")
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
class VolumeSpikeReversal(Strategy):
name = "VO01_vol_spike_reversal"
description = "Volume spike reversal — fade eccessi di volume/prezzo"
default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
fee_rt = 0.002
def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
c = df["close"].values
o = df["open"].values
h = df["high"].values
l = df["low"].values
v = df["volume"].values
n = len(c)
vol_mult = params.get("vol_mult", 3.0)
move_thr = params.get("move_threshold", 0.005)
use_trend_filter = params.get("trend_filter", False)
cooldown = params.get("cooldown", 4)
# Volume media rolling
vol_ma = np.full(n, np.nan)
for i in range(20, n):
vol_ma[i] = np.mean(v[i - 20:i])
# EMA per trend filter
ema_20 = np.full(n, np.nan)
k = 2 / 21
ema_20[19] = np.mean(c[:20])
for i in range(20, n):
ema_20[i] = c[i] * k + ema_20[i - 1] * (1 - k)
signals = []
last_idx = -cooldown
for i in range(21, n):
if i - last_idx < cooldown:
continue
if np.isnan(vol_ma[i]):
continue
# Volume spike
if v[i] < vol_ma[i] * vol_mult:
continue
# Price move
move = (c[i] - o[i]) / o[i] if o[i] > 0 else 0
if abs(move) < move_thr:
continue
# Fade: opposto al move
direction = -1 if move > 0 else 1
# Trend filter: non fare mean reversion contro trend forte
if use_trend_filter and not np.isnan(ema_20[i]):
ema_slope = (ema_20[i] - ema_20[max(0, i - 5)]) / ema_20[max(0, i - 5)]
if direction == -1 and ema_slope > 0.005:
continue
if direction == 1 and ema_slope < -0.005:
continue
signals.append(Signal(
idx=i, direction=direction, entry_price=c[i],
metadata={"vol_ratio": float(v[i] / vol_ma[i]), "move_pct": round(move * 100, 3)},
))
last_idx = i
return signals
if __name__ == "__main__":
strategy = VolumeSpikeReversal()
configs = [
("v3x m0.5%", {"vol_mult": 3.0, "move_threshold": 0.005}),
("v3x m1%", {"vol_mult": 3.0, "move_threshold": 0.01}),
("v4x m0.5%", {"vol_mult": 4.0, "move_threshold": 0.005}),
("v4x m1%", {"vol_mult": 4.0, "move_threshold": 0.01}),
("v3x m0.5%+tf", {"vol_mult": 3.0, "move_threshold": 0.005, "trend_filter": True}),
("v3x m1%+tf", {"vol_mult": 3.0, "move_threshold": 0.01, "trend_filter": True}),
("v5x m1%", {"vol_mult": 5.0, "move_threshold": 0.01}),
("v5x m1%+tf", {"vol_mult": 5.0, "move_threshold": 0.01, "trend_filter": True}),
]
all_results = []
for label, params in configs:
for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
for hold in [3, 6]:
r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **params)
if r and r.trades >= 30:
r.strategy_name = f"VO01 {label} h={hold}"
all_results.append(r)
all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
print(f"\n{'=' * 120}")
print(f" VO01 VOLUME SPIKE REVERSAL — TOP 20")
print(f"{'=' * 120}")
for r in all_results[:20]:
r.print_summary()
if all_results:
all_results[0].print_yearly()
+169
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@@ -0,0 +1,169 @@
"""HY01 — Squeeze + Mean Reversion Ibrida.
Insight: durante lo squeeze (bassa volatilità), il prezzo mean-reverte
DENTRO il range compresso. Autocorrelazione negativa a 15m conferma.
Invece di aspettare il BREAKOUT, tradi la MEAN REVERSION dentro lo squeeze.
Completamente diverso da SQ01-SQ04 che aspettano il RILASCIO.
IN:
- OHLCV DataFrame
- Parametri: bb_window, sq_threshold, rsi_period, rsi_levels,
vol_filter, bb_touch (prezzo tocca banda Bollinger)
OUT:
- Signal: long quando RSI oversold DURANTE squeeze, short quando overbought
- BacktestResult
Logica:
1. Verifica che siamo IN squeeze (BB dentro KC)
2. Prezzo tocca banda inferiore BB → LONG (tornerà alla media)
3. Prezzo tocca banda superiore BB → SHORT (tornerà alla media)
4. Conferma RSI: deve essere estremo nella direzione
5. Hold corto (2-3 barre) — target: ritorno alla media
6. Stop: se prezzo rompe lo squeeze → chiudi subito
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, ".")
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio
def rsi(close, period=14):
delta = np.diff(close)
gain = np.where(delta > 0, delta, 0)
loss = np.where(delta < 0, -delta, 0)
result = np.full(len(close), 50.0)
if len(gain) < period:
return result
ag = np.mean(gain[:period])
al = np.mean(loss[:period])
for i in range(period, len(delta)):
ag = (ag * (period - 1) + gain[i]) / period
al = (al * (period - 1) + loss[i]) / period
result[i + 1] = 100 if al == 0 else 100 - 100 / (1 + ag / al)
return result
def bollinger(close, window=14):
n = len(close)
upper = np.full(n, np.nan)
lower = np.full(n, np.nan)
mid = np.full(n, np.nan)
for i in range(window, n):
wc = close[i - window:i]
m = np.mean(wc)
s = np.std(wc)
mid[i] = m
upper[i] = m + 2 * s
lower[i] = m - 2 * s
return upper, mid, lower
class SqueezeMeanReversion(Strategy):
name = "HY01_squeeze_mr"
description = "Mean reversion DENTRO lo squeeze — fade estremi in range compresso"
default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
fee_rt = 0.002
def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
c = df["close"].values
h = df["high"].values
l = df["low"].values
v = df["volume"].values
n = len(c)
bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
rsi_period = params.get("rsi_period", 14)
rsi_low = params.get("rsi_oversold", 30)
rsi_high = params.get("rsi_overbought", 70)
use_bb_touch = params.get("bb_touch", True)
cooldown = params.get("cooldown", 3)
kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, bb_w)
rsi_vals = rsi(c, rsi_period)
bb_upper, bb_mid, bb_lower = bollinger(c, bb_w)
signals = []
last_idx = -cooldown
for i in range(bb_w + 1, n):
if i - last_idx < cooldown:
continue
if np.isnan(kcr[i]) or np.isnan(bb_lower[i]):
continue
# Must be IN squeeze
if kcr[i] >= sq_thr:
continue
direction = 0
if use_bb_touch:
# Prezzo tocca/rompe BB lower → long (mean reversion up)
if c[i] <= bb_lower[i] and rsi_vals[i] < rsi_low:
direction = 1
# Prezzo tocca/rompe BB upper → short (mean reversion down)
elif c[i] >= bb_upper[i] and rsi_vals[i] > rsi_high:
direction = -1
else:
# Solo RSI
if rsi_vals[i] < rsi_low:
direction = 1
elif rsi_vals[i] > rsi_high:
direction = -1
if direction == 0:
continue
signals.append(Signal(
idx=i, direction=direction, entry_price=c[i],
metadata={
"rsi": float(rsi_vals[i]),
"kcr": float(kcr[i]),
"bb_pos": "lower" if direction == 1 else "upper",
},
))
last_idx = i
return signals
if __name__ == "__main__":
strategy = SqueezeMeanReversion()
configs = [
("bb+rsi30/70", {"bb_touch": True, "rsi_oversold": 30, "rsi_overbought": 70}),
("bb+rsi25/75", {"bb_touch": True, "rsi_oversold": 25, "rsi_overbought": 75}),
("bb+rsi35/65", {"bb_touch": True, "rsi_oversold": 35, "rsi_overbought": 65}),
("rsi30/70 only", {"bb_touch": False, "rsi_oversold": 30, "rsi_overbought": 70}),
("rsi25/75 only", {"bb_touch": False, "rsi_oversold": 25, "rsi_overbought": 75}),
("sq<0.7 bb+rsi30", {"bb_touch": True, "sq_threshold": 0.7, "rsi_oversold": 30, "rsi_overbought": 70}),
("sq<0.9 bb+rsi30", {"bb_touch": True, "sq_threshold": 0.9, "rsi_oversold": 30, "rsi_overbought": 70}),
("sq<0.9 rsi35/65", {"bb_touch": False, "sq_threshold": 0.9, "rsi_oversold": 35, "rsi_overbought": 65}),
]
all_results = []
for label, params in configs:
for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
for hold in [2, 3, 4]:
r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **params)
if r and r.trades >= 30:
r.strategy_name = f"HY01 {label} h={hold}"
all_results.append(r)
all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
print(f"\n{'=' * 130}")
print(f" HY01 SQUEEZE MEAN REVERSION — TOP 25")
print(f"{'=' * 130}")
for r in all_results[:25]:
r.print_summary()
if all_results:
all_results[0].print_yearly()
+1
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@@ -18,6 +18,7 @@ MODULE_MAP = {
"SQ03_filtered": ("SQ03_squeeze_all_filters", "SqueezeFiltered"), "SQ03_filtered": ("SQ03_squeeze_all_filters", "SqueezeFiltered"),
"SQ04_ultimate": ("SQ04_squeeze_ultimate", "SqueezeUltimate"), "SQ04_ultimate": ("SQ04_squeeze_ultimate", "SqueezeUltimate"),
"ML01_squeeze_gbm": ("ML01_squeeze_gbm", "SqueezeGBM"), "ML01_squeeze_gbm": ("ML01_squeeze_gbm", "SqueezeGBM"),
"MT01_squeeze_mtf": ("MT01_squeeze_mtf_momentum", "SqueezeMTFMomentum"),
} }
+18
View File
@@ -31,3 +31,21 @@ strategies:
ml_threshold: 0.70 ml_threshold: 0.70
bb_window: 14 bb_window: 14
sq_threshold: 0.8 sq_threshold: 0.8
- name: MT01_squeeze_mtf
asset: BTC
tf: 15m
enabled: true
params:
ema_period: 20
min_slope: 0.001
vol_filter: true
- name: MT01_squeeze_mtf
asset: ETH
tf: 15m
enabled: true
params:
ema_period: 20
min_slope: 0.001
vol_filter: true