feat(analysis): matrice PnL/anno consolidata (confronto strategie + portafoglio)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

.gitignore

@@ -16,3 +16,4 @@ data/processed/
 *.pt
 *.pth
 notebooks/.ipynb_checkpoints/
+data/paper_trades/

CLAUDE.md

@@ -9,9 +9,10 @@ Progetto di ricerca: riconoscimento pattern frattali per trading algoritmico su
 - **Linguaggio:** Python 3.11+
 - **Package manager:** uv (dipendenze in `pyproject.toml`, lock in `uv.lock`)
 - **Dati:** Parquet in `data/raw/` (non committati, ~70 MB)
-- **ML:** scikit-learn (GradientBoosting), PyTorch (LSTM)
+- **ML:** scikit-learn (GradientBoostingClassifier)
 - **Analisi:** numpy, pandas, scipy
 - **API dati:** Cerbero MCP su `cerbero-mcp.tielogic.xyz` (Deribit, Bybit, Hyperliquid), ccxt/Binance come fallback
+- **Config:** pyyaml per `strategies.yml`
 
 ## Struttura
 
@@ -19,10 +20,25 @@ Progetto di ricerca: riconoscimento pattern frattali per trading algoritmico su
 src/data/              → download e caricamento dati (downloader.py)
 src/fractal/           → indicatori frattali (patterns.py, indicators.py, similarity.py)
 src/backtest/          → engine di backtesting (engine.py)
-scripts/          → analisi e strategie numerate 01–13
+src/strategies/        → classe base Strategy ABC + indicatori condivisi
+  base.py              → Strategy, Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats
+  indicators.py        → keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes, ema, atr, rv, correlation
+src/live/              → paper trading live multi-strategia
+  multi_runner.py      → orchestratore: carica YAML, fetch candele, tick worker
+  strategy_worker.py   → worker indipendente: capital, trade log, stato persistente.
+                         Exit guidati da strategia (TP/SL/max_bars via Signal.metadata),
+                         fallback hold_bars/stop -2%. Usa fee_rt della strategia.
+  strategy_loader.py   → import dinamico classi Strategy da scripts/strategies/
+  cerbero_client.py    → client HTTP per Cerbero MCP (Deribit testnet)
+  signal_engine.py     → squeeze + ML real-time (legacy ML01, ora in waste) + validazione OOS
+  telegram_notifier.py → notifiche Telegram per trade
+scripts/strategies/    → strategie con edge validato OOS (solo MR01_bollinger_fade)
+scripts/waste/         → strategie scartate (W01-W28 + famiglia squeeze SQ/MT/ML/AD/CM/PD)
+scripts/analysis/      → ricerca/validazione OOS fee-aware (strategy_research, oos_validation, ...)
+strategies.yml         → config multi-strategy paper trader
 docs/diary/            → diario di ricerca giornaliero
+docs/specs/            → specifiche di design
 data/raw/              → file .parquet OHLCV (gitignored)
-data/processed/   → modelli salvati (gitignored)
 ```
 
 ## Comandi
@@ -30,7 +46,12 @@ data/processed/   → modelli salvati (gitignored)
 ```bash
 uv sync                                              # installa dipendenze
 uv run python -m src.data.downloader                  # scarica dati storici
-uv run python scripts/13_squeeze_ml_hybrid.py  # strategia vincente
+uv run python scripts/strategies/MR01_bollinger_fade.py        # strategia attiva (mean-reversion)
+uv run python scripts/analysis/strategy_research.py            # ricerca strategie fee-aware OOS
+uv run python scripts/analysis/oos_validation.py               # perche' la famiglia squeeze e' scartata
+uv run python scripts/analysis/validate_worker_mr01.py         # replay worker reale su MR01
+uv run python -m src.live.multi_runner                # paper trading live multi-strategia
+docker compose up -d                                  # deploy Docker
 uv run pytest                                         # test
 ```
 
@@ -47,22 +68,53 @@ df = load_data("ETH", "15m")  # carica un asset/timeframe
 Fonte primaria: Cerbero MCP (endpoint `/mcp-deribit/tools/get_historical`).
 Token observer: nel file `secrets/observer.token` del progetto CerberoSuite.
 
-## Strategia vincente
+## Strategie attive
 
-**Squeeze + ML ibrida** (script 13):
+> **LEZIONE CRITICA (2026-05-28).** L'intera famiglia squeeze-breakout (SQ01-04,
+> MT01, ML01, AD01, CM01, PD01) è stata **scartata in `scripts/waste/`**: le
+> accuratezze storiche 76-82% erano un **artefatto di look-ahead**. Quei backtest
+> decidono la direzione con `sign(close[i]-close[i-1])` (la candela di breakout `i`)
+> ma entrano a `close[i-1]` — cioè comprano *prima* della candela che usano per
+> scegliere la direzione. Dal vivo il worker scopre il breakout solo a `close[i]`
+> ed entra lì: l'edge sparisce (win-rate ~47%, lancio di moneta). Sotto ingresso
+> onesto e fee reali **tutte perdono, anche a fee zero**. Inoltre i breakout
+> *rientrano* (mean-reversion > continuation). Vedi `scripts/analysis/oos_validation.py`
+> e `intrabar_test.py`.
 
-1. Rileva squeeze di volatilità (Bollinger dentro Keltner)
-2. Al rilascio dello squeeze, estrai feature strutturali dalla finestra
-3. GradientBoosting predice direzione con walk-forward training
-4. Trade solo se modello ha confidenza ≥ 70%
+Tutte le strategie estendono `src.strategies.base.Strategy`
+(`generate_signals() → backtest()`). **Unica strategia con edge netto validato:**
 
-Configurazione migliore: ETH 15m, BBw=14, squeeze threshold=0.8, breakout=3 barre, leva 3x, position 15%.
+| Codice | Nome | Tipo | Edge OOS netto | DD | Note |
+|--------|------|------|----------------|----|------|
+| **MR01** | Bollinger Fade | Mean-reversion | **BTC 1h n50 k2.5: +201% / +196% (worker)** | 15% | Fada la banda, TP alla media, SL ad ATR |
 
-Risultato backtestato: 76.9% accuracy, 118% annuo, 4.2% drawdown, €13.78/giorno da €1.000.
+MR01 è robusto su **tutta** la griglia parametri (`n∈{14,20,30,50}` × `k∈{2.0,2.5,3.0}`,
+entrambi gli asset → tutte positive OOS) e su **tutte** le fee 0.00-0.20% RT.
+Validato col worker reale: BTC +196% / ETH +251% OOS (nov 2023→mag 2026).
+Ricerca completa: `scripts/analysis/strategy_research.py`.
+
+**Metodologia obbligatoria per ogni nuova strategia** (per non ripetere l'errore squeeze):
+1. Ingresso eseguibile: direzione e prezzo decisi con dati **fino a `close[i]`**, mai `close[i-1]` con direzione da `i`.
+2. Backtest **NETTO** dopo fee realistiche Deribit (**0.10% RT** taker, non 0.20%) + leva.
+3. Validazione **out-of-sample** (held-out) + robustezza su griglia parametri + sweep fee.
+4. Crea script in `scripts/strategies/`, aggiungi a `MODULE_MAP` (`strategy_loader.py`) e a `strategies.yml`.
+
+Strategie scartate storiche in `scripts/waste/` (W01-W28 + la famiglia squeeze).
+
+## Multi-Strategy Paper Trader
+
+Orchestratore che esegue N strategie in parallelo su dati live Cerbero, ognuna con €1000 USDC virtuali indipendenti.
+
+**Config:** `strategies.yml` — lista strategie con asset, tf, sizing, parametri. Attualmente solo MR01 (BTC/ETH 1h).
+**Persistenza:** `data/paper_trades/{strategy}___{asset}__{tf}/` con `trades.jsonl` (append-only) + `status.json` (resume al restart, include tp/sl/max_bars).
+**Hot-add:** aggiungi riga YAML → `docker compose restart` → storico intatto.
+**Exit strategia:** se un `Signal` porta `tp`/`sl`/`max_bars` in `metadata` (come MR01), il worker esce su take-profit/stop-loss/time-limit a quei livelli; altrimenti usa il fallback `hold_bars`/stop -2%.
+**Notifiche:** Telegram per ogni trade (richiede `.env` con `TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN` e `TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID`).
 
 ## Convenzioni
 
-- Script numerati progressivamente (`01_`, `02_`, …). Ogni script è autocontenuto.
+- Strategie in `scripts/strategies/` con codice univoco (MR01, ...).
+- Script scartati in `scripts/waste/` (W01-W28 + famiglia squeeze).
 - Diario in `docs/diary/YYYY-MM-DD.md`. Aggiornare dopo ogni esperimento significativo.
 - Nessun dato sensibile nei commit (token, chiavi API). Usare `.gitignore`.
 - Verificare sempre assenza di data leakage prima di fidarsi dei risultati. In particolare: `returns[i-w : i]` include `close[i]` che è un candle nel futuro — usare `returns[i-w : i-1]`.
@@ -70,5 +122,8 @@ Risultato backtestato: 76.9% accuracy, 118% annuo, 4.2% drawdown, €13.78/giorn
 ## Attenzione
 
 - **Data leakage:** è stata trovata e corretta nello script 05. Ogni volta che si usano rendimenti logaritmici (`np.diff(np.log(close))`), ricordare che `returns[k]` usa `close[k+1]`. I feature devono fermarsi a `returns[i-2]` se il prezzo corrente è `close[i-1]`.
-- **Fee:** sempre 0.1% per lato (0.2% round-trip). Includere nel backtest.
+- **Fee:** Deribit perp reale = taker ~0.05%/lato (**0.10% round-trip**), maker ~0%. Usare 0.10% RT come baseline (lo 0.20% storico era pessimista 2x). Includere SEMPRE nel backtest: sono vincolo di prim'ordine, molte operazioni = morte per fee. Il worker usa `strategy.fee_rt` (MR01 = 0.001).
 - **Leva:** testato con 3x. Aumentare a 5x migliora i rendimenti ma raddoppia il drawdown.
+- **GBM:** GradientBoostingClassifier di scikit-learn. Ensemble di alberi decisionali sequenziali. Walk-forward per evitare leakage temporale.
+- **Cerbero `get_historical` (fix 2026-05-28):** `end_date` come data nuda è inclusivo dell'intera giornata fino all'ultima candela chiusa (es. `end=oggi` arriva fino ad ora, non più a mezzanotte); accettati anche timestamp con orario (`...T14:00:00`, naive=UTC); nessun cap a ~5000 righe (paginazione interna). Il client passa già `end=oggi`, ora corretto. Prima del fix il paper trader restava a zero trade perché il feed era fermo a mezzanotte.
+- **Dati ETH Deribit 15m:** 14-30%/anno di candele *flat* (O=H=L=C, volume 0, run fino a ~54h) per bassa liquidità del perpetuo. Verificato (2026-05-28): escluderle NON cambia i backtest (Δacc ≤0.5pp) → edge robusto. Resta un caveat operativo (slippage/fill in trading reale, irrilevante per paper). BTC pulito eccetto picco ~8% nel 2024.

Dockerfile

@@ -8,7 +8,9 @@ COPY pyproject.toml uv.lock ./
 RUN uv sync --frozen --no-dev
 
 COPY src/ src/
+COPY scripts/strategies/ scripts/strategies/
+COPY strategies.yml strategies.yml
 
 VOLUME /app/data
 
-CMD ["uv", "run", "python", "-m", "src.live.paper_trader"]
+CMD ["uv", "run", "python", "-m", "src.live.multi_runner"]

README.md

@@ -8,80 +8,189 @@ Partendo da un capitale iniziale di €1.000, raggiungere un profitto medio di
 
 ## Risultati
 
-Tredici strategie testate su dati storici 2018–2026 (BTC e ETH, timeframe 5m / 15m / 1h). Le migliori cinque:
+> ⚠️ **Revisione 2026-05-28.** La famiglia squeeze-breakout (SQ/MT/ML/AD/CM/PD, con
+> accuracy storiche dichiarate 76-82%) è stata **scartata**: quei numeri erano un
+> **artefatto di look-ahead**. I backtest decidevano la direzione dalla candela di
+> breakout `close[i]` ma entravano a `close[i-1]` — impossibile dal vivo. Sotto
+> ingresso onesto (`close[i]`) e fee reali, l'edge sparisce e tutte perdono, anche
+> a fee zero. Dettagli e prove: `scripts/analysis/oos_validation.py`.
 
-| # | Strategia | Accuracy | ROI annuo | Max DD | €/giorno |
-|---|-----------|----------|-----------|--------|----------|
-| 1 | ETH 15m Squeeze + ML ibrida | 76.9% | 118% | 4.2% | €13.78 |
-| 2 | ETH 1h Squeeze + Vol | 83.9% | 22% | 2.0% | €0.71 |
-| 3 | BTC 15m Squeeze + ML ibrida | 78.8% | 69% | 7.0% | €5.51 |
-| 4 | ETH 1h Squeeze (BBw=30) | 82.8% | 47% | 3.2% | €1.77 |
-| 5 | ETH Walk-Forward ML | 57.7% | 38% | 47% | €3.12 |
+Dopo una validazione **out-of-sample, fee-aware** di tutte le famiglie, l'unica con
+edge netto reale è il **mean-reversion** (i breakout *rientrano*, non continuano):
 
-La strategia vincente (#1) opera su ETH a 15 minuti con ~1 trade al giorno, leva 3x e drawdown contenuto al 4.2%.
+| Codice | Strategia | Mercato | Edge OOS netto | Max DD | Robustezza |
+|--------|-----------|---------|----------------|--------|------------|
+| **MR01** | Bollinger Fade (mean-reversion) | BTC 1h | **+196 / +201%** | 15% | ✅ |
+| **MR01** | Bollinger Fade (mean-reversion) | ETH 1h | **+251%** | ~25% | ⚠️ DD alto |
+
+Netto dopo **fee realistiche Deribit 0.10% RT** (taker), leva 3x, pos 15%, su finestra
+held-out (nov 2023→mag 2026). MR01 è positivo su **tutta** la griglia parametri
+(`n∈{14,20,30,50}` × `k∈{2.0,2.5,3.0}`) e per **ogni** livello di fee 0.00-0.20% RT —
+margine di sicurezza ampio, niente parametro fortunato. Ri-validato col worker live reale.
 
 ## Come funziona
 
-### Volatility Squeeze Breakout
+### MR01 — Bollinger Fade (mean-reversion)
 
-Il meccanismo centrale sfrutta i cicli naturali di compressione ed espansione della volatilità:
+La strategia attiva sfrutta il fatto, emerso dai dati, che su BTC/ETH a 1h gli estremi
+di prezzo **rientrano verso la media** più di quanto proseguano:
 
-1. **Compressione** — le Bollinger Bands entrano dentro i Keltner Channel (il prezzo si muove sempre meno, accumulando "energia").
-2. **Breakout** — le bande escono dal canale. Un impulso direzionale parte.
-3. **Conferma ML** — un modello GradientBoosting, addestrato su feature strutturali e frattali della finestra precedente, conferma la direzione e filtra i segnali deboli.
+1. **Bollinger Bands** (window `n`, `k` deviazioni standard) sul close.
+2. **Entry** — quando il close esce *sotto* la banda inferiore → **long** (o *sopra* la superiore → **short**). Ingresso a `close[i]`, eseguibile dal vivo.
+3. **Take-profit** alla media mobile (il rientro atteso).
+4. **Stop-loss** a `sl_atr × ATR` oltre l'estremo; **time-limit** a `max_bars`.
 
-### Feature frattali
+Nessun look-ahead: direzione e livelli sono calcolati con dati fino a `close[i]`.
 
-- Rapporti body/shadow normalizzati su finestre multiple (12, 24, 48 candele)
-- Momentum, volatilità, skewness, kurtosis dei rendimenti logaritmici
-- Autocorrelazione lag-1
-- Profilo volumetrico e spike detection
-- Durata della fase di squeeze e rapporto di espansione Keltner
-- Posizione del prezzo rispetto al range recente e ATR normalizzato
+### Perché lo squeeze breakout è stato abbandonato
+
+L'ipotesi originale era opposta — *continuazione* dopo la compressione di volatilità
+(Bollinger dentro Keltner → breakout direzionale). Su dati storici sembrava dare
+76-82% di accuracy, ma era un **artefatto di look-ahead**: il backtest entrava a
+`close[i-1]` con direzione decisa da `close[i]`. Replicando l'esecuzione reale
+(ingresso a `close[i]`) l'edge collassa al ~47% (lancio di moneta) e i costi fanno
+il resto. Il test sui breakout intra-barra a 5m conferma che il movimento *rientra*
+subito (mean-reversion), giustificando MR01. Tutta la famiglia squeeze è in `scripts/waste/`.
+
+### Lezione metodologica
+
+Ogni nuova strategia deve passare: (1) **ingresso eseguibile** senza look-ahead,
+(2) backtest **netto** dopo fee realistiche (0.10% RT Deribit), (3) validazione
+**out-of-sample** + robustezza su griglia parametri + sweep fee. Strumenti in
+`scripts/analysis/` (`strategy_research.py`, `oos_validation.py`, `intrabar_test.py`).
 
 ## Struttura progetto
 
 ```
 PythagorasGoal/
 ├── src/
-│   ├── data/          # Download e gestione dati storici (Cerbero MCP + Binance)
+│   ├── data/              # Download e gestione dati (Cerbero MCP + Binance)
 │   ├── fractal/           # Indicatori frattali: Hurst, Higuchi FD, self-similarity
 │   ├── backtest/          # Motore di backtesting con fee e metriche
-│   ├── strategies/    # (predisposto per strategie modulari)
-│   ├── nn/            # (predisposto per reti neurali)
-│   └── utils/
-├── scripts/           # Script di analisi e test (01–13)
+│   ├── strategies/        # Classe base Strategy ABC + indicatori condivisi
+│   │   ├── base.py        # Strategy, Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats
+│   │   └── indicators.py  # keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes, ema, atr, rv, corr
+│   └── live/              # Paper trading live su Deribit testnet
+│       ├── multi_runner.py     # Orchestratore multi-strategia
+│       ├── strategy_worker.py  # Worker indipendente con stato persistente
+│       ├── strategy_loader.py  # Import dinamico classi Strategy
+│       ├── cerbero_client.py   # Client HTTP per Cerbero MCP
+│       ├── signal_engine.py    # Squeeze + ML real-time (legacy) + validazione OOS
+│       └── telegram_notifier.py
+├── scripts/
+│   ├── strategies/        # Strategie con edge validato OOS (solo MR01_bollinger_fade)
+│   ├── waste/             # Strategie scartate (W01-W28 + famiglia squeeze SQ/MT/ML/AD/CM/PD)
+│   └── analysis/          # Ricerca/validazione OOS fee-aware (strategy_research, oos_validation, ...)
+├── strategies.yml         # Config multi-strategy paper trader
 ├── data/
-│   ├── raw/           # Parquet OHLCV (non committati, ~70 MB)
-│   └── processed/     # Modelli salvati
+│   └── raw/               # Parquet OHLCV (gitignored, ~70 MB)
 ├── docs/
-│   └── diary/         # Diario di ricerca giornaliero
-├── tests/
-├── pyproject.toml
-└── README.md
+│   ├── diary/             # Diario di ricerca giornaliero
+│   └── specs/             # Specifiche di design
+├── Dockerfile
+├── docker-compose.yml
+└── pyproject.toml
 ```
 
+## Strategie attive
+
+Tutte le strategie estendono `src.strategies.base.Strategy` (`generate_signals() → backtest()`).
+
+| Codice | Script | Tipo | Descrizione |
+|--------|--------|------|-------------|
+| **MR01** | `MR01_bollinger_fade.py` | Mean-reversion | Fada la banda di Bollinger, TP alla media, SL ad ATR. Unica con edge netto validato OOS. |
+
+La famiglia squeeze (SQ01-04, ML01, MT01, PD01, CM01, AD01) è in `scripts/waste/`:
+edge storico = artefatto di look-ahead (vedi sezione *Come funziona*).
+
+Per eseguire il backtest della strategia:
+
+```bash
+uv run python scripts/strategies/MR01_bollinger_fade.py
+```
+
+Per la ricerca/validazione fee-aware out-of-sample:
+
+```bash
+uv run python scripts/analysis/strategy_research.py     # screening famiglie + deep-dive MR01
+uv run python scripts/analysis/oos_validation.py        # perche' la famiglia squeeze e' scartata
+uv run python scripts/analysis/validate_worker_mr01.py  # replay del worker live su MR01
+```
+
+## Paper Trading Live
+
+Il multi-strategy runner esegue N strategie in parallelo su dati live da Cerbero MCP, ognuna con €1000 USDC virtuali indipendenti. Se un `Signal` porta `tp`/`sl`/`max_bars` in `metadata` (come MR01), il worker chiude su take-profit alla media / stop-loss ad ATR / time-limit; altrimenti usa il fallback `hold_bars`/stop -2%.
+
+### Avvio
+
+```bash
+# Locale
+uv run python -m src.live.multi_runner
+
+# Docker
+docker compose up -d
+```
+
+### Configurazione
+
+Le strategie attive sono definite in `strategies.yml`:
+
+```yaml
+defaults:
+  capital: 1000
+  position_size: 0.15
+  leverage: 3
+
+strategies:
+  - name: MR01_bollinger_fade
+    asset: BTC
+    tf: 1h
+    enabled: true
+    params:
+      bb_window: 50
+      k: 2.5
+      sl_atr: 2.0
+      max_bars: 24
+```
+
+Per aggiungere una strategia: nuova riga in `strategies.yml`, poi `docker compose restart`. Lo storico delle strategie esistenti rimane intatto.
+
+### Persistenza
+
+Ogni strategia ha la sua directory in `data/paper_trades/`:
+
+```
+data/paper_trades/
+  MR01_bollinger_fade__BTC__1h/
+    trades.jsonl    # Storico trade append-only
+    status.json     # Stato corrente (resume al restart, include tp/sl/max_bars)
+```
+
+Notifiche Telegram per ogni trade (richiede `TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN` e `TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID` in `.env`).
+
 ## Setup
 
 ```bash
-# Clona il repository
+# Clona e installa
 git clone <repo-url> && cd PythagorasGoal
-
-# Installa dipendenze (richiede uv)
 uv sync
 
-# Scarica dati storici (~70 MB, richiede connessione)
+# Scarica dati storici (~70 MB)
 uv run python -m src.data.downloader
 
-# Esegui la strategia ibrida vincente
-uv run python scripts/13_squeeze_ml_hybrid.py
+# Backtest strategia attiva
+uv run python scripts/strategies/MR01_bollinger_fade.py
+
+# Paper trading live
+uv run python -m src.live.multi_runner
 ```
 
 ### Requisiti
 
 - Python ≥ 3.11
 - [uv](https://docs.astral.sh/uv/) come package manager
-- Accesso a Cerbero MCP (`cerbero-mcp.tielogic.xyz`) per i dati Deribit, oppure Binance via ccxt come fallback
+- Accesso a Cerbero MCP (`cerbero-mcp.tielogic.xyz`) per dati Deribit live
+- Docker (opzionale, per deploy su VPS)
 
 ## Dati
 
@@ -90,25 +199,7 @@ uv run python scripts/13_squeeze_ml_hybrid.py
 | BTC | 5m / 15m / 1h | 883K / 294K / 74K | 2018-01 → oggi |
 | ETH | 5m / 15m / 1h | 882K / 294K / 74K | 2018-01 → oggi |
 
-Fonte primaria: Deribit perpetual via Cerbero MCP. Fallback per il periodo antecedente: Binance spot via ccxt. Formato: Apache Parquet.
-
-## Strategie testate
-
-| Script | Approccio | Esito |
-|--------|-----------|-------|
-| 01 | Pattern candlestick discreti (U/D/0) | Nessun edge |
-| 02 | DTW pattern matching | Troppo lento, edge minimo |
-| 03 | Proiezione FFT (ispirata al paper) | Random (49.8%) |
-| 04 | GBM su feature frattali (Hurst, FD) | 63.6% a soglia 0.65 |
-| 05 | GBM multi-window (corretto data leakage) | 58.9% |
-| 06 | GBM su feature strutturali normalizzate | 58.6%, +57.5% return |
-| 07 | LSTM su sequenze candele | 58.4%, comparabile a GBM |
-| 08 | Ensemble multi-timeframe (1h + 15m) | 59.2% (consensus 2/3) |
-| 09 | Walk-forward ML | 57.7%, Sharpe 7.4, €3.12/day |
-| 10 | Ensemble 5 modelli alta precisione | In corso |
-| 11 | **Volatility Squeeze Breakout** | **83.9%**, approccio strutturale |
-| 12 | Report finale e simulazione crescita | — |
-| 13 | **Squeeze + ML ibrida** | **76.9%**, 118% ann, €13.78/day |
+Fonte primaria: Deribit perpetual via Cerbero MCP. Fallback: Binance spot via ccxt. Formato: Apache Parquet.
 
 ## Riferimenti
 

docker-compose.yml

@@ -1,14 +1,17 @@
 services:
   paper-trader:
     build: .
-    container_name: pythagoras-paper
+    container_name: pythagoras-multi
     restart: unless-stopped
     volumes:
       - ./data:/app/data
+      - ./strategies.yml:/app/strategies.yml:ro
+    env_file:
+      - .env
     environment:
       - PYTHONUNBUFFERED=1
     healthcheck:
-      test: ["CMD", "python", "-c", "import json; s=json.load(open('/app/data/paper_trades/status.json')); assert s['last_update']"]
+      test: ["CMD", "python", "-c", "import os; assert any(f.endswith('status.json') for r,d,fs in os.walk('/app/data/paper_trades') for f in fs)"]
       interval: 120s
       timeout: 10s
       retries: 3

docs/diary/2026-05-28-honest-strategies.md

@@ -0,0 +1,136 @@
+# 2026-05-28 — Ricerca onesta di nuove strategie (post-squeeze)
+
+## Contesto e mandato
+
+Dopo aver scoperto che l'intera famiglia squeeze-breakout era un artefatto di
+look-ahead (accuratezze 76-82% svanite sotto ingresso eseguibile), il mandato è
+stato: trovare in modo **onesto** almeno 3 strategie attendibili, testate su ~8
+anni e su più criptovalute, con le fee incluse nella valutazione, partendo da
+€1.000 con l'obiettivo (aspirazionale) di €50/giorno. Esplorare anche idee fuori
+dal comune e l'uso combinato di più crypto e timeframe.
+
+## Metodologia (engine onesto)
+
+Tutto il lavoro usa un unico engine condiviso (`scripts/analysis/honest_lab.py`)
+con questi vincoli anti-illusione:
+
+1. **Ingresso eseguibile.** Ogni segnale alla barra `i` usa solo dati fino a
+   `close[i]` e l'ingresso avviene a `close[i]` (ciò che il worker live vede e
+   può eseguire). Disponibile anche l'ingresso più conservativo a `open[i+1]`.
+2. **Uscita realistica.** Take-profit / stop-loss valutati intrabar su `high`/`low`,
+   in modo conservativo (SL prima del TP nello stesso bar), più time-limit.
+   Una posizione per volta (non-overlap), capitale composto.
+3. **Fee di prim'ordine.** Tutto è NETTO dopo fee round-trip realistiche Deribit
+   (0.10% RT) moltiplicate per la leva (3x), con sweep fino a 0.20% RT.
+4. **Validazione severa.** FULL + out-of-sample (ultimo 30%) + conteggio anni
+   positivi + sweep fee + griglia parametri + test su **8 crypto**
+   (BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, DOGE, ADA, 2018→2026).
+
+## Lezione madre
+
+**Shortare le crypto perde OOS in modo sistematico in questo campione.** Sia la
+mean-reversion sul lato short, sia il momentum short, crollano fuori campione: il
+periodo 2018-2026 è net-bull e ogni rialzo "estremo" tende a continuare invece di
+rientrare. Tutte le configurazioni che sopravvivono oneste sono **long-biased**.
+È un fatto da dichiarare: parte della performance OOS è correlata al beta rialzista
+delle crypto. Le strategie aggiungono *timing* sopra quel beta, non lo eliminano.
+
+## Le 3 strategie selezionate (meccanismi distinti)
+
+| Codice | Meccanismo | TF | Asset robusti | OOS netto (fee 0.10% RT) | DD | Anni+ |
+|--------|-----------|----|---------------|--------------------------|----|-------|
+| **DIP01** | Dip-buy z-score reversion (long-only) | 1h | BTC, ETH, SOL | BTC +59% · ETH +224% · SOL +13% | 23-55% | 6-7/9 |
+| **TR01** | EMA 20/100 trend-following (long-only) | 4h | BNB, BTC, DOGE, SOL, XRP | BTC +27% · DOGE +53% · XRP +29% | 29-53% | 4-6/8 |
+| **ROT01** | Rotazione cross-sectional momentum sul paniere | 1d | intero paniere (8) | **+44%** | 53% | 5/7 |
+
+Dettagli e riproducibilità: `scripts/analysis/honest_final.py` (tabella di
+validazione unica), `honest_rotation.py`, `honest_trend.py`, `honest_candidates.py`,
+`honest_diag.py`/`honest_diag2.py` (diagnostica long/short e filtro trend).
+
+### DIP01 — compra le capitolazioni
+Long-only: entra quando lo z-score del prezzo rispetto alla media a 50 barre scende
+sotto −2.5 (capitolazione), prende profitto al rientro verso la media, SL a 2.5·ATR.
+È la versione robusta e onesta della famiglia mean-reversion: regge lo sweep fee
+fino a 0.20% RT (BTC +45% OOS anche a 0.20%). Funziona sui major (BTC/ETH/SOL); sugli
+alt molto parabolici (DOGE/BNB) un dip fisso continua a scendere e non ha edge.
+
+### TR01 — cavalca i trend
+Long-only: in posizione quando EMA(20) > EMA(100) sul 4h, altrimenti cash. Poche
+operazioni (≈200 flip in 8 anni) ⇒ le fee non sono letali. È **complementare** a
+DIP01: guadagna nei regimi di trend, dove la reversione soffre.
+
+### ROT01 — la più affidabile e "fuori dal comune"
+Una sola strategia che usa **tutto il paniere** in un unico book: ogni giorno ordina
+le 8 crypto per momentum (rendimento a 60 giorni) e alloca a parti uguali alle 2
+migliori con momentum positivo, il resto in cash. Cattura la *dispersione* tra
+crypto (gli alt forti corrono molto più di BTC nei bull) senza shortare nulla.
+È **param-insensitive** (tutte le combinazioni lookback/top-k sono positive OOS) e
+regge le fee fino a 0.20% RT (+41% OOS). Risponde direttamente alla richiesta di
+combinare più crypto e un timeframe diverso in un'unica strategia. Per-anno:
+2020 +33% · 2021 +181% · 2022 −29% (bear) · 2023 +43% · 2024 +59% · 2025 +6% · 2026 −10% (YTD).
+
+## Diversificazione
+
+I tre meccanismi coprono regimi diversi e in larga misura anti-correlati:
+reversione (DIP01), momentum di singolo asset (TR01), forza relativa cross-asset
+(ROT01). Eseguirli insieme produce una curva di equity più liscia del singolo.
+
+## Onestà sull'obiettivo €50/giorno
+
+Va detto chiaramente: **€50/giorno su €1.000 in pochi mesi non è raggiungibile a
+rischio sano.** Significa ~€18.250/anno, cioè ~1.825%/anno; gli edge onesti qui
+trovati rendono il 30-60% OOS su orizzonti pluriennali. Le strade per avvicinare
+quel numero sono: (a) far crescere il capitale per anni con interesse composto —
+€50/giorno diventa plausibile solo quando il capitale è molto più grande; (b) alzare
+la leva, che però aumenta proporzionalmente il drawdown (già 23-55%) ed espone a
+rovina; (c) aggiungere capitale. Nessuna di queste è una scorciatoia. La proposta
+onesta è un portafoglio delle 3 strategie a leva moderata, puntando alla
+**sopravvivenza e alla crescita composta**, non al target giornaliero immediato.
+
+## Miglioramenti (alzare Acc, ridurre DD, migliorare PnL)
+
+Leve oneste e documentate, senza tuning sui singoli anni
+(`scripts/analysis/honest_improve.py`, `honest_improve2.py`):
+
+### ROT02 — dual-momentum overlay (migliora TUTTO)
+Alla rotazione cross-sectional di ROT01 si aggiunge un overlay di *absolute
+momentum*: cash quando BTC è sotto la sua media a 100 giorni (mercato risk-off).
+Taglia i bear di sistema (gli unici anni rossi di ROT01).
+
+| | FULL% | OOS% | DD% |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| ROT01 base | +679 | +44 | 53 |
+| **ROT02 (SMA100)** | **+1095** | **+98** | **40** |
+
+PnL su, DD giù: dominanza su tutte e tre le metriche. Param-insensitive (SMA100-150).
+
+### DIP01 — market-gate (variante low-DD)
+Comprare i dip solo quando BTC è risk-on alza l'**Acc** (ETH 52→57%, SOL 49→52%) e
+**dimezza il DD** (ETH 53→23%, SOL 25→13%), al costo di parte della PnL (meno trade).
+È de-risking, non un pasto gratis: utile per chi vuole una curva più liscia. Su BTC
+il gate va evitato (i dip migliori di BTC arrivano proprio quando BTC è sotto la
+propria SMA), quindi DIP01 base resta la versione di riferimento per BTC.
+
+### PORT01 — portafoglio combinato (il vero motore di risk-reduction)
+Equal-weight giornaliero ribilanciato delle 3 sleeve anti-correlate
+(DIP01 BTC + TR01 basket + ROT02). La diversificazione porta il DD del portafoglio
+**sotto** quello della sleeve meno rischiosa, mantenendo una CAGR alta.
+
+| Sleeve | ret% | DD% | CAGR% |
+|--------|------|-----|-------|
+| DIP01 BTC | +322 | 15 | 31 |
+| TR01 basket | +591 | 27 | 43 |
+| ROT02 dual-mom | +771 | 40 | 49 |
+| **PORTAFOGLIO** | **+642** | **12** | **45** |
+
+Per-anno portafoglio: 2021 +203% · 2022 **−1%** (bear neutralizzato, era −30% su ROT) ·
+2023 +47% · 2024 +50% · 2025 +14% · 2026 −2% (YTD). Nessun anno realmente negativo,
+DD massimo 12%, CAGR 45%. È la configurazione di deployment raccomandata.
+
+## Prossimi passi
+
+- Integrare DIP01 nel worker (già compatibile: Signal con tp/sl/max_bars).
+- Trailing-stop ad ATR per TR01 (per alzarne l'Acc e ridurne ulteriormente il DD).
+- Estendere il worker per strategie position-based (TR01) e di portafoglio (ROT01).
+- Backtest del portafoglio combinato con ribilanciamento del capitale.
+- Walk-forward rolling (oltre al singolo split 70/30) per confermare la stabilità.

docs/diary/2026-05-28.md

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# 2026-05-28 — Giorno 3: Bug dati Cerbero, paper trader fermo, fix MT01 multi-timeframe
+
+### 12:20 — Sintomo: paper trader live a zero trade
+
+**Cosa:** check del container `pythagoras-multi` (multi-strategy paper trader, 6 strategie).
+**Reale:** container healthy da ore, ma **0 trade** su tutte le strategie, tutte FLAT a €1000.
+Primo falso indizio: `last_bar_ts: 0` in tutti gli `status.json`. Indagando il worker,
+quel campo si aggiorna **solo a posizione aperta** (contatore `hold_bars`), non ad ogni
+candela → non è la causa. Il loop era vivo (status.json riscritti ogni 60s).
+**Lezione:** non fidarsi del nome di un campo; verificare nel codice quando viene scritto.
+L'healthcheck del container controlla solo l'esistenza di `status.json`, non la freschezza
+→ un loop bloccato risulterebbe comunque "healthy".
+
+### 12:45 — Causa radice: bug lato Cerbero MCP `get_historical`
+
+**Cosa:** probe dirette all'endpoint `/mcp-deribit/tools/get_historical`.
+**Reale:** due bug lato server:
+1. **`end_date` data-nuda tronca a mezzanotte:** `end=oggi` restituiva candele solo fino a
+   `oggi 00:00`. Il `df` live finiva sempre alla barra di mezzanotte e **non avanzava** durante
+   la giornata → nessun breakout fresco sull'ultima barra → nessun ingresso (condizione worker
+   `last_signal.idx >= last_idx - 1`).
+2. **Cap a ~5000 righe** che ignora `start_date`: una richiesta di 365g a 15m restituiva ~52
+   giorni. Ecco perché ML01 si addestrava su soli 88 samples (overfit, train_acc 100%).
+**Lezione:** lo zero-trade non era nelle strategie ma nel feed dati. Sempre validare la
+freschezza/copertura dei dati prima di sospettare la logica.
+
+### 13:30 — Fix lato Cerbero + verifica
+
+**Cosa:** report passato al dev di `cerbero-mcp`; fix deployato (riavvio container) + doc
+aggiornata in `cerbero-mcp/docs/API_REFERENCE.md`.
+**Reale dopo deploy (verificato con probe):**
+- `end=oggi` (data nuda) → ultima candela = ora corrente (age ~3 min). ✅
+- 365g a 15m → **35.099 candele**, span 365.6g, nessun cap. ✅
+- Supportati anche timestamp con orario (`...T14:00:00`, naive = UTC). ✅
+
+Nostro client (`src/live/cerbero_client.py`) invariato: passa già `end=oggi`, ora corretto.
+**Lezione:** "trust but verify" — la doc dichiarava i fix prima che fossero deployati; solo
+la probe diretta ha confermato cosa era davvero attivo sul server.
+
+### 14:00 — Problema residuo: MT01 usava un trend 1h STANTIO
+
+**Cosa:** check di tutte le strategie sul percorso di codice reale con dati freschi.
+**Reale:**
+- Tutte le 6 strategie girano senza crash; SQ01/SQ02 generano molti segnali.
+- **MT01 leggeva il trend 1h dal parquet statico** (`load_data(asset,"1h")`), non da Cerbero.
+  Il parquet finiva a mezzanotte → per ogni barra 15m di oggi `searchsorted` cadeva oltre la
+  fine e si agganciava sempre alla candela di mezzanotte (gap 14.8h). La conferma
+  multi-timeframe — il cuore di MT01 — era di fatto congelata e il gap cresce ogni giorno.
+- In `data/raw/` mancavano del tutto i parquet **15m** (`btc_15m`, `eth_15m`) → backtest 15m rotti.
+**Lezione:** una strategia live che dipende da un file statico ha un punto cieco temporale;
+il dato live e quello di backtest devono provenire da fonti coerenti.
+
+### 14:30 — Fix MT01: trend 1h live da Cerbero
+
+**Cosa:** modifica al runner perché MT01 prenda l'1h live, non dal parquet.
+- `MT01.generate_signals` accetta un `df_1h` opzionale (fallback al parquet se assente).
+- `StrategyWorker.tick(df, df_1h=None)` lo inoltra ai signal.
+- `multi_runner` fa fetch 1h live (resolution 60) per gli asset MT01 ad ogni poll (`htf_cache`).
+**Reale (verificato a codice montato, pre-rebuild):** gap del trend 1h sull'ultima barra
+**0.75h** (fresco) contro **14.8h** col parquet statico. Segnali invariati sullo storico.
+**Lezione:** isolare la dipendenza dal file statico rende MT01 immune al drift tra un
+`download_all()` e l'altro.
+
+### 14:55 — Rigenerazione dati + rebuild
+
+**Cosa:** `download_asset` per 15m+1h (saltati 1m/5m, lenti e inutilizzati), poi
+`docker compose up -d --build` (il codice `src/` è baked nell'immagine).
+**Reale:** parquet rigenerati con storia completa 2018→2026 e freschi (15m fino alle 14:45,
+1h fino alle 14:00). Container ripartito: 6 strategie attive, ML01 riaddestrato su **534
+samples** (anno pieno), MT01 senza errori, fetch 1h live OK.
+
+### 15:00 — Regressione backtest sui dati rigenerati
+
+**Cosa:** rilanciati i backtest per confermare che i numeri documentati si riproducano sui
+dati ricreati da zero (BTC/ETH 15m, hold=3, fee 0.2% RT, leva 3x, pos 15%).
+**Reale:** accuratezze e drawdown **identici**, solo +1/+3 trade dalle barre recenti in più.
+
+| Strategia | Ottenuto | Documentato | Esito |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| SQ01 BTC 15m | 76.7% / DD 6.7% / 4063t | 76.7% / 6.7% / 4062 | ✓ |
+| SQ01 ETH 15m | 76.4% / 6.2% / 2951t | 76.4% / 6.2% / 2948 | ✓ |
+| SQ02 BTC 15m | 79.7% / 6.5% / 1251t | 79.7% / 6.5% / 1250 | ✓ |
+| SQ02 ETH 15m | 78.6% / 3.4% / 944t | 78.6% / 3.4% / 942 | ✓ |
+| **MT01 BTC 15m (ema20+vol)** | **82.7% / 5.9% / 503t** | 82.7% / 5.9% / 503 | ✓ esatto |
+| MT01 ETH 15m (ema20+vol) | 81.2% / 2.9% / 404t | — | ok |
+
+**Lezione:** l'integrità dei dati rigenerati è confermata — la pipeline di download produce
+risultati riproducibili. La config live di MT01 (ema20+vol) coincide col best documentato.
+
+### Punti aperti
+
+1. **Backtest e drift dati:** MT01 live ora è immune (1h da Cerbero), ma i backtest girano
+   sempre sui dati fino all'ultimo `download_all()`. Per dati di backtest sempre freschi
+   serve uno scheduling del download (cron/job).
+2. **Healthcheck:** valutare un check su mtime di `status.json` (< 180s) per rilevare uno
+   stallo del loop, non solo l'esistenza del file.

docs/specs/2026-05-27-multi-strategy-paper-trader.md

@@ -0,0 +1,174 @@
+# Multi-Strategy Paper Trader — Design Spec
+
+## Obiettivo
+
+Eseguire N strategie di trading in parallelo su Deribit testnet (paper trading locale), ognuna con capitale virtuale indipendente di €1000 USDC. Lo storico trade di ogni strategia persiste tra restart. Nuove strategie aggiungibili in corso d'opera via config YAML senza perdere lo storico delle esistenti.
+
+## Architettura
+
+Un singolo container Docker esegue un orchestratore (`MultiStrategyRunner`) che gestisce N `StrategyWorker`. Ogni worker è indipendente: proprio capital, propri trade, proprio stato.
+
+```
+Docker Container
+├── MultiStrategyRunner (orchestratore, loop principale)
+│   ├── StrategyWorker[SQ02_BTC_15m] → paper trade → JSONL
+│   ├── StrategyWorker[ML01_ETH_15m] → paper trade → JSONL
+│   └── ...altri worker da YAML
+├── CerberoClient (condiviso, fetch prezzi)
+└── TelegramNotifier (condiviso)
+```
+
+## Componenti
+
+### 1. `strategies.yml` — Configurazione
+
+```yaml
+defaults:
+  capital: 1000
+  position_size: 0.15
+  leverage: 3
+  hold_bars: 3
+  poll_seconds: 60
+  retrain_hours: 24
+
+strategies:
+  - name: SQ02_antifake_vol
+    asset: BTC
+    tf: 15m
+    enabled: true
+
+  - name: SQ02_antifake_vol
+    asset: ETH
+    tf: 15m
+    enabled: true
+
+  - name: ML01_squeeze_gbm
+    asset: ETH
+    tf: 15m
+    enabled: true
+    position_size: 0.20
+    params:
+      ml_threshold: 0.70
+      bb_window: 14
+      sq_threshold: 0.8
+```
+
+Ogni entry eredita `defaults`. Override per-strategia possibile su tutti i campi. Il campo `params` passa kwargs a `generate_signals()` o al backtest ML.
+
+### 2. `StrategyWorker` — Worker per singola strategia
+
+Responsabilità:
+- Importa la classe Strategy corrispondente da `scripts/strategies/`
+- Mantiene stato: capital, posizione aperta, equity
+- Al startup: ricarica `status.json` se esiste (resume), altrimenti inizia da zero
+- Ad ogni tick: riceve DataFrame candele, genera segnali, paper-trade
+- Logga ogni evento in `trades.jsonl` (append-only)
+- Aggiorna `status.json` ad ogni tick
+
+Stato persistente (`status.json`):
+```json
+{
+  "capital": 1023.45,
+  "in_position": true,
+  "direction": "long",
+  "entry_price": 2534.20,
+  "entry_time": "2026-05-27T14:30:00Z",
+  "bars_held": 1,
+  "total_trades": 15,
+  "total_wins": 12,
+  "started_at": "2026-05-27T10:00:00Z"
+}
+```
+
+Trade log (`trades.jsonl`), append-only:
+```json
+{"ts": "2026-05-27T14:30:00Z", "event": "OPEN", "direction": "long", "price": 2534.20, "size": 0.18, "capital": 1023.45}
+{"ts": "2026-05-27T15:15:00Z", "event": "CLOSE", "reason": "hold_limit", "entry": 2534.20, "exit": 2560.10, "pnl": 3.45, "fee": 0.92, "net_pnl": 2.53, "capital": 1025.98}
+```
+
+### 3. `MultiStrategyRunner` — Orchestratore
+
+Loop principale:
+1. Carica `strategies.yml`
+2. Per ogni entry, crea `StrategyWorker` (o riprende se già esiste)
+3. Ogni 60s:
+   a. Fetch candele live da Cerbero (una volta per asset/tf unico)
+   b. Passa DataFrame a ogni worker
+   c. Ogni worker valuta segnali e gestisce posizione
+   d. Worker ML: retrain ogni 24h
+4. Notifica Telegram per ogni trade
+
+Ottimizzazione: fetch candele raggruppato per (asset, tf). Se 3 strategie usano BTC 15m, fetch una volta sola.
+
+### 4. Persistenza
+
+```
+data/paper_trades/
+  SQ02_antifake_vol__BTC__15m/
+    trades.jsonl
+    status.json
+  SQ02_antifake_vol__ETH__15m/
+    trades.jsonl
+    status.json
+  ML01_squeeze_gbm__ETH__15m/
+    trades.jsonl
+    status.json
+```
+
+Directory naming: `{strategy_name}__{asset}__{tf}` con double underscore separatore.
+
+Volume Docker: `./data:/app/data` — persiste tra restart.
+
+### 5. Aggiunta strategia in corso
+
+1. Aggiungi entry in `strategies.yml`
+2. `docker compose restart`
+3. Runner carica YAML, trova nuova entry senza `status.json` → parte da €1000
+4. Strategie esistenti riprendono da `status.json` → storico intatto
+
+### 6. Docker
+
+`Dockerfile` — invariato, aggiunge `strategies.yml` alla COPY.
+
+`docker-compose.yml`:
+```yaml
+services:
+  paper-trader:
+    build: .
+    container_name: pythagoras-multi
+    restart: unless-stopped
+    volumes:
+      - ./data:/app/data
+      - ./strategies.yml:/app/strategies.yml:ro
+    env_file:
+      - .env
+    environment:
+      - PYTHONUNBUFFERED=1
+```
+
+`CMD` cambia a: `uv run python -m src.live.multi_runner`
+
+### 7. Strategia-specifica: ML01
+
+ML01 richiede training del modello GBM. Il worker ML01:
+- Al primo avvio: train su storico (365 giorni via Cerbero)
+- Ogni `retrain_hours`: retrain
+- Usa `SignalEngine` esistente per check_signal()
+- Le strategie SQ* non hanno training — solo regole deterministiche
+
+### 8. File da creare/modificare
+
+Nuovi:
+- `src/live/multi_runner.py` — orchestratore
+- `src/live/strategy_worker.py` — worker per singola strategia
+- `strategies.yml` — config
+- `src/live/strategy_loader.py` — import dinamico classi Strategy
+
+Modifiche:
+- `docker-compose.yml` — nuovo CMD, volume strategies.yml
+- `Dockerfile` — COPY strategies.yml
+
+Invariati:
+- `src/live/cerbero_client.py`
+- `src/live/telegram_notifier.py`
+- `src/live/signal_engine.py` (usato da ML01 worker)

pyproject.toml

@@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ dependencies = [
     "torch>=2.0",
     "matplotlib>=3.7",
     "tqdm>=4.65",
+    "pyyaml>=6.0",
 ]
 
 [project.optional-dependencies]

scripts/analysis/best_yearly.py

@@ -0,0 +1,309 @@
+"""Confronto migliori strategie S1 e S2 — andamento per anno."""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+from src.fractal.patterns import encode_candles
+
+FEE_PERP = 0.002  # 0.1% taker roundtrip perpetual
+FEE_OPT = 0.0052  # options roundtrip
+INITIAL = 1000
+LEVERAGE = 3
+
+
+def keltner_ratio(close, high, low, window=14):
+    n = len(close)
+    r = np.full(n, np.nan)
+    for i in range(window, n):
+        wc, wh, wl = close[i-window:i], high[i-window:i], low[i-window:i]
+        ma = np.mean(wc)
+        bb_std = np.std(wc)
+        tr = np.maximum(wh-wl, np.maximum(np.abs(wh-np.roll(wc,1)), np.abs(wl-np.roll(wc,1))))
+        atr = np.mean(tr[1:])
+        kc = (ma+1.5*atr)-(ma-1.5*atr)
+        bb = (ma+2*bb_std)-(ma-2*bb_std)
+        if kc > 0:
+            r[i] = bb/kc
+    return r
+
+
+def rv_ann(close, window):
+    lr = np.diff(np.log(np.where(close==0, 1e-10, close)))
+    r = np.full(len(close), np.nan)
+    for i in range(window, len(lr)):
+        r[i+1] = np.std(lr[i-window:i]) * np.sqrt(24*365)
+    return r
+
+
+def rsi(close, period=14):
+    delta = np.diff(close)
+    gain = np.where(delta>0, delta, 0)
+    loss = np.where(delta<0, -delta, 0)
+    result = np.full(len(close), 50.0)
+    if len(gain) < period:
+        return result
+    ag = np.mean(gain[:period])
+    al = np.mean(loss[:period])
+    for i in range(period, len(delta)):
+        ag = (ag*(period-1)+gain[i])/period
+        al = (al*(period-1)+loss[i])/period
+        result[i+1] = 100 if al == 0 else 100-100/(1+ag/al)
+    return result
+
+
+def ema(arr, period):
+    r = np.full(len(arr), np.nan)
+    k = 2/(period+1)
+    r[period-1] = np.mean(arr[:period])
+    for i in range(period, len(arr)):
+        r[i] = arr[i]*k + r[i-1]*(1-k)
+    return r
+
+
+# =====================================================================
+#  S1 BEST: Squeeze Breakout ETH 1h (BBw=14, sq=0.8, brk=3)
+# =====================================================================
+def run_s1_squeeze(asset, tf):
+    df = load_data(asset, tf)
+    c, h, l, v = df["close"].values, df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["volume"].values
+    n = len(c)
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, 14)
+
+    yearly = {}
+    in_sq = False
+    sq_start = 0
+
+    for i in range(15, n):
+        if np.isnan(kcr[i]):
+            continue
+        is_sq = kcr[i] < 0.8
+        if is_sq and not in_sq:
+            in_sq = True
+            sq_start = i
+        elif not is_sq and in_sq:
+            in_sq = False
+            if i - sq_start < 5 or i + 3 >= n:
+                continue
+            first_ret = (c[i] - c[i-1]) / c[i-1]
+            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+                continue
+            direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
+            actual = (c[i+2] - c[i-1]) / c[i-1]
+            trade_ret = actual * direction
+            net = trade_ret * LEVERAGE - FEE_PERP * LEVERAGE
+
+            year = ts.iloc[i].year
+            if year not in yearly:
+                yearly[year] = {"pnls": [], "wins": 0, "total": 0}
+            yearly[year]["pnls"].append(net)
+            yearly[year]["total"] += 1
+            if trade_ret > 0:
+                yearly[year]["wins"] += 1
+
+    return yearly
+
+
+# =====================================================================
+#  S1 BEST ALT: Squeeze+ML hybrid ETH 15m
+# =====================================================================
+# Troppo complesso da ricalcolare (serve ML training). Uso i dati S1 squeeze puro.
+
+
+# =====================================================================
+#  S2 BEST: VRP ETH 48h (con IV stimata, unico disponibile su 8 anni)
+# =====================================================================
+def run_s2_vrp(asset, dte=48):
+    df = load_data(asset, "1h")
+    c = df["close"].values
+    n = len(c)
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    rv_24 = rv_ann(c, 24)
+    rv_168 = rv_ann(c, 168)
+
+    yearly = {}
+    for i in range(170, n - dte):
+        if ts.iloc[i].hour != 8:
+            continue
+        rv_s, rv_l = rv_24[i], rv_168[i]
+        if np.isnan(rv_s) or np.isnan(rv_l) or rv_s < 0.05 or rv_l < 0.05:
+            continue
+        regime = rv_s / rv_l
+        iv_pf = 0.9 if regime > 2 else (1.0 if regime > 1.5 else (1.1 if regime > 1 else 1.2))
+        iv = rv_l * iv_pf
+        prem = iv * np.sqrt(dte/(24*365)) * 0.8
+        spot = c[i]
+        move = abs(c[min(i+dte, n-1)] - spot) / spot
+        pos = 0.10
+        raw = (prem - move) * pos if move <= prem else max(-(move-prem)*pos, -pos*0.05)
+        net = raw - FEE_OPT * pos
+
+        year = ts.iloc[i].year
+        if year not in yearly:
+            yearly[year] = {"pnls": [], "wins": 0, "total": 0}
+        yearly[year]["pnls"].append(net)
+        yearly[year]["total"] += 1
+        if raw > 0:
+            yearly[year]["wins"] += 1
+    return yearly
+
+
+# =====================================================================
+#  S2 BEST PERPETUAL: Multi-TF 15m+1h BTC
+# =====================================================================
+def run_s2_multitf(asset):
+    df_1h = load_data(asset, "1h")
+    df_15m = load_data(asset, "15m")
+    c1h = df_1h["close"].values
+    ts1h = pd.to_datetime(df_1h["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    c15 = df_15m["close"].values
+    ts15 = df_15m["timestamp"].values
+    n15 = len(c15)
+
+    ema_50 = ema(c1h, 50)
+    rsi_15m = rsi(c15, 14)
+
+    yearly = {}
+    daily_done = set()
+
+    for i in range(100, n15 - 12):
+        ts_dt = pd.Timestamp(ts15[i], unit="ms", tz="UTC")
+        day = ts_dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+        if day in daily_done:
+            continue
+        if rsi_15m[i] > 35 and rsi_15m[i] < 65:
+            continue
+        h_idx = np.searchsorted(ts1h.values.astype("int64"), ts15[i]) - 1
+        if h_idx < 50 or h_idx >= len(c1h) or np.isnan(ema_50[h_idx]):
+            continue
+
+        direction = None
+        if rsi_15m[i] < 30 and c1h[h_idx] > ema_50[h_idx]:
+            direction = "long"
+        elif rsi_15m[i] > 70 and c1h[h_idx] < ema_50[h_idx]:
+            direction = "short"
+        if direction is None:
+            continue
+
+        entry = c15[i]
+        exit_price = c15[min(i+12, n15-1)]
+        trade_ret = (exit_price-entry)/entry if direction == "long" else (entry-exit_price)/entry
+        net = trade_ret * LEVERAGE - FEE_PERP * LEVERAGE
+
+        year = ts_dt.year
+        if year not in yearly:
+            yearly[year] = {"pnls": [], "wins": 0, "total": 0}
+        yearly[year]["pnls"].append(net)
+        yearly[year]["total"] += 1
+        if trade_ret > 0:
+            yearly[year]["wins"] += 1
+        daily_done.add(day)
+    return yearly
+
+
+# =====================================================================
+#  REPORT
+# =====================================================================
+strategies = {
+    "S1: Squeeze BTC 1h":       run_s1_squeeze("BTC", "1h"),
+    "S1: Squeeze ETH 1h":       run_s1_squeeze("ETH", "1h"),
+    "S1: Squeeze ETH 15m":      run_s1_squeeze("ETH", "15m"),
+    "S2: VRP ETH 48h (IV est)": run_s2_vrp("ETH", 48),
+    "S2: VRP BTC 48h (IV est)": run_s2_vrp("BTC", 48),
+    "S2: MultiTF BTC 15m+1h":   run_s2_multitf("BTC"),
+    "S2: MultiTF ETH 15m+1h":   run_s2_multitf("ETH"),
+}
+
+all_years = sorted(set(y for v in strategies.values() for y in v))
+
+print("=" * 120)
+print("  MIGLIORI STRATEGIE — ANDAMENTO PER ANNO")
+print("  Fee reali. PnL su €1000 flat (no compounding). Dati OHLCV reali 2018-2026.")
+print("  ⚠ VRP usa IV STIMATA (non reale) — fidarsi solo dei dati perpetual per backtest lungo")
+print("=" * 120)
+
+# Header
+hdr = f"  {'Anno':>6s}"
+for name in strategies:
+    short = name.split(": ")[1][:18]
+    hdr += f" | {short:>18s}"
+print(hdr)
+print(f"  {'-' * (len(hdr) - 2)}")
+
+# Per anno: accuracy / PnL totale
+for year in all_years:
+    row_acc = f"  {year:>6d}"
+    row_pnl = f"  {'':>6s}"
+    for name, yearly in strategies.items():
+        if year in yearly:
+            d = yearly[year]
+            acc = d["wins"]/d["total"]*100 if d["total"] > 0 else 0
+            pnl = sum(d["pnls"]) * INITIAL
+            tag = "▓" if acc >= 75 else "▒" if acc >= 65 else "░" if acc >= 55 else " "
+            row_acc += f" | {acc:>5.1f}% {tag} {d['total']:>3d}t"
+            row_pnl += f" | €{pnl:>+8.0f}      "
+        else:
+            row_acc += f" | {'—':>18s}"
+            row_pnl += f" | {'':>18s}"
+    print(row_acc)
+    print(row_pnl)
+
+# Totali
+print(f"  {'-' * (len(hdr) - 2)}")
+row_tot = f"  {'TOT':>6s}"
+for name, yearly in strategies.items():
+    all_pnls = [p for d in yearly.values() for p in d["pnls"]]
+    all_wins = sum(d["wins"] for d in yearly.values())
+    all_total = sum(d["total"] for d in yearly.values())
+    acc = all_wins/all_total*100 if all_total > 0 else 0
+    pnl = sum(all_pnls) * INITIAL
+    row_tot += f" | {acc:>5.1f}%   {all_total:>4d}t"
+print(row_tot)
+
+row_pnl_tot = f"  {'€TOT':>6s}"
+for name, yearly in strategies.items():
+    all_pnls = [p for d in yearly.values() for p in d["pnls"]]
+    pnl = sum(all_pnls) * INITIAL
+    row_pnl_tot += f" | €{pnl:>+8.0f}      "
+print(row_pnl_tot)
+
+# Compounding
+print(f"\n  {'':>6s}", end="")
+for name in strategies:
+    short = name.split(": ")[1][:18]
+    print(f" | {short:>18s}", end="")
+print()
+
+row_comp = f"  {'COMP':>6s}"
+for name, yearly in strategies.items():
+    cap = float(INITIAL)
+    for year in sorted(yearly):
+        for pnl in yearly[year]["pnls"]:
+            cap += cap * pnl
+            cap = max(cap, 10)
+    row_comp += f" | €{cap:>12,.0f}    "
+print(row_comp)
+
+# Drawdown
+row_dd = f"  {'MAXDD':>6s}"
+for name, yearly in strategies.items():
+    cap = float(INITIAL)
+    peak = cap
+    mdd = 0
+    for year in sorted(yearly):
+        for pnl in yearly[year]["pnls"]:
+            cap += cap * pnl
+            cap = max(cap, 10)
+            if cap > peak: peak = cap
+            dd = (peak - cap) / peak
+            mdd = max(mdd, dd)
+    row_dd += f" | {mdd*100:>12.1f}%   "
+print(row_dd)
+
+# Legenda
+print(f"\n  Legenda: ▓ ≥75% acc  ▒ ≥65% acc  ░ ≥55% acc")
+print(f"  ⚠ S2 VRP: IV stimata (rv_long × 1.0-1.2), NON dati reali opzioni")
+print(f"  S1 Squeeze e S2 MultiTF: dati OHLCV reali al 100%")

scripts/analysis/compare_strategies.py

@@ -0,0 +1,559 @@
+"""Analisi finale — S1 (squeeze puro) vs Script 13 (squeeze+ML GBM).
+Metriche: PnL, num trades, DD max, tempo medio a mercato, descrizione.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from sklearn.ensemble import GradientBoostingClassifier
+from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+from src.fractal.patterns import encode_candles
+
+FEE_PERP = 0.002
+FEE_ML = 0.001
+INITIAL = 1000
+LEVERAGE = 3
+
+TF_MINUTES = {"1m": 1, "5m": 5, "15m": 15, "1h": 60, "4h": 240, "1d": 1440}
+
+
+# ── helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def keltner_ratio(close, high, low, window=14):
+    n = len(close)
+    r = np.full(n, np.nan)
+    for i in range(window, n):
+        wc, wh, wl = close[i-window:i], high[i-window:i], low[i-window:i]
+        ma = np.mean(wc)
+        bb_std = np.std(wc)
+        tr = np.maximum(wh-wl, np.maximum(np.abs(wh-np.roll(wc,1)), np.abs(wl-np.roll(wc,1))))
+        atr = np.mean(tr[1:])
+        kc = (ma+1.5*atr)-(ma-1.5*atr)
+        bb = (ma+2*bb_std)-(ma-2*bb_std)
+        if kc > 0:
+            r[i] = bb/kc
+    return r
+
+
+def detect_squeezes(close, high, low, kcr, sq_thr=0.8, min_dur=5):
+    events = []
+    in_sq = False
+    sq_start = 0
+    for i in range(1, len(close)):
+        if np.isnan(kcr[i]):
+            continue
+        is_sq = kcr[i] < sq_thr
+        if is_sq and not in_sq:
+            in_sq = True
+            sq_start = i
+        elif not is_sq and in_sq:
+            in_sq = False
+            dur = i - sq_start
+            if dur < min_dur:
+                continue
+            events.append({"idx": i, "dur": dur, "sq_start": sq_start,
+                           "avg_vol_squeeze": np.mean(close[sq_start:i]),
+                           "kcr_at_release": kcr[i]})
+    return events
+
+
+def _build_result(yearly, capital, max_dd, all_t, all_w, time_pct, avg_dur_h):
+    acc = all_w / all_t * 100
+    tot_pnl = sum(p for d in yearly.values() for p in d["pnls"])
+    years_active = len(yearly)
+    all_pnls = [p for d in yearly.values() for p in d["pnls"]]
+    sharpe = np.mean(all_pnls) / np.std(all_pnls) * np.sqrt(252) if len(all_pnls) > 1 and np.std(all_pnls) > 0 else 0
+
+    year_details = {}
+    for y in sorted(yearly):
+        d = yearly[y]
+        ya = d["w"] / d["t"] * 100 if d["t"] > 0 else 0
+        yp = sum(d["pnls"])
+        year_details[y] = {"trades": d["t"], "acc": ya, "pnl": yp}
+
+    valid_years = {y: d for y, d in year_details.items() if d["trades"] >= 10}
+    if valid_years:
+        worst_y = min(valid_years, key=lambda y: valid_years[y]["acc"])
+        worst_acc = valid_years[worst_y]["acc"]
+    elif year_details:
+        worst_y = min(year_details, key=lambda y: year_details[y]["acc"])
+        worst_acc = year_details[worst_y]["acc"]
+    else:
+        worst_y = "N/A"
+        worst_acc = 0
+
+    daily_pnl = tot_pnl / (years_active * 365) if years_active > 0 else 0
+
+    return {
+        "trades": all_t, "acc": acc, "pnl": tot_pnl, "capital": capital,
+        "max_dd": max_dd * 100, "sharpe": sharpe, "daily_pnl": daily_pnl,
+        "time_in_market_pct": time_pct, "avg_dur_h": avg_dur_h,
+        "years_active": years_active, "worst_year": str(worst_y),
+        "worst_acc": worst_acc, "year_details": year_details,
+    }
+
+
+# ── S1: Squeeze breakout puro ────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def run_s1_squeeze(asset, tf, hold=3):
+    df = load_data(asset, tf)
+    c, h, l, v = df["close"].values, df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["volume"].values
+    n = len(c)
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, 14)
+    events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr)
+
+    yearly = {}
+    capital = float(INITIAL)
+    peak = capital
+    max_dd = 0
+    total_bars = 0
+
+    for ev in events:
+        i = ev["idx"]
+        if i + hold + 1 >= n:
+            continue
+        first_ret = (c[i] - c[i-1]) / c[i-1] if c[i-1] > 0 else 0
+        if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+            continue
+        direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
+        entry = c[i-1]
+        exit_price = c[min(i + hold - 1, n - 1)]
+        actual = (exit_price - entry) / entry * direction
+        net = actual * LEVERAGE - FEE_PERP * LEVERAGE
+
+        capital += capital * 0.15 * net
+        capital = max(capital, 10)
+        if capital > peak: peak = capital
+        dd = (peak - capital) / peak
+        max_dd = max(max_dd, dd)
+        total_bars += hold
+
+        year = ts.iloc[i].year
+        if year not in yearly:
+            yearly[year] = {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnls": []}
+        yearly[year]["t"] += 1
+        if actual > 0: yearly[year]["w"] += 1
+        yearly[year]["pnls"].append(net * INITIAL)
+
+    all_t = sum(d["t"] for d in yearly.values())
+    all_w = sum(d["w"] for d in yearly.values())
+    if all_t == 0: return None
+    return _build_result(yearly, capital, max_dd, all_t, all_w,
+                         total_bars / n * 100, hold * TF_MINUTES.get(tf, 60) / 60)
+
+
+def run_s1_antifake_vol(asset, tf, hold=3):
+    df = load_data(asset, tf)
+    c, h, l, v = df["close"].values, df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["volume"].values
+    n = len(c)
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, 14)
+    events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr)
+
+    yearly = {}
+    capital = float(INITIAL)
+    peak = capital
+    max_dd = 0
+    total_bars = 0
+
+    for ev in events:
+        i = ev["idx"]
+        if i + hold + 1 >= n:
+            continue
+        first_ret = (c[i] - c[i-1]) / c[i-1] if c[i-1] > 0 else 0
+        if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+            continue
+        br = h[i] - l[i]
+        if br > 0:
+            if c[i] > c[i-1]:
+                if (h[i] - c[i]) / br > 0.6:
+                    continue
+            else:
+                if (c[i] - l[i]) / br > 0.6:
+                    continue
+        avg_v = np.mean(v[ev["sq_start"]:i])
+        if avg_v > 0 and v[i] <= avg_v * 1.3:
+            continue
+
+        direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
+        entry = c[i-1]
+        exit_price = c[min(i + hold - 1, n - 1)]
+        actual = (exit_price - entry) / entry * direction
+        net = actual * LEVERAGE - FEE_PERP * LEVERAGE
+        capital += capital * 0.15 * net
+        capital = max(capital, 10)
+        if capital > peak: peak = capital
+        dd = (peak - capital) / peak
+        max_dd = max(max_dd, dd)
+        total_bars += hold
+
+        year = ts.iloc[i].year
+        if year not in yearly:
+            yearly[year] = {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnls": []}
+        yearly[year]["t"] += 1
+        if actual > 0: yearly[year]["w"] += 1
+        yearly[year]["pnls"].append(net * INITIAL)
+
+    all_t = sum(d["t"] for d in yearly.values())
+    all_w = sum(d["w"] for d in yearly.values())
+    if all_t == 0: return None
+    return _build_result(yearly, capital, max_dd, all_t, all_w,
+                         total_bars / n * 100, hold * TF_MINUTES.get(tf, 60) / 60)
+
+
+# ── Script 13: Squeeze + ML ibrida (GBM walk-forward) ────────────────
+
+def build_features_at(df, i, squeeze_info):
+    if i < 100:
+        return None
+    o = df["open"].values
+    h = df["high"].values
+    l = df["low"].values
+    c = df["close"].values
+    v = df["volume"].values
+    feats = []
+    for w in [12, 24, 48]:
+        win_c = c[i-w:i]
+        win_o = o[i-w:i]
+        win_h = h[i-w:i]
+        win_l = l[i-w:i]
+        win_v = v[i-w:i]
+        mn, mx = win_l.min(), max(win_h.max(), win_c.max())
+        rng = mx - mn if mx - mn > 0 else 1e-10
+        total = win_h - win_l
+        total = np.where(total == 0, 1e-10, total)
+        body = np.abs(win_c - win_o) / total
+        direction = np.sign(win_c - win_o)
+        log_c = np.log(np.where(win_c == 0, 1e-10, win_c))
+        rets = np.diff(log_c)
+        v_mean = np.mean(win_v)
+        feats.extend([
+            np.mean(rets) if len(rets) > 0 else 0,
+            np.std(rets) if len(rets) > 0 else 0,
+            np.sum(rets) if len(rets) > 0 else 0,
+            float(pd.Series(rets).skew()) if len(rets) > 2 else 0,
+            float(pd.Series(rets).kurtosis()) if len(rets) > 3 else 0,
+            np.mean(body), np.std(body),
+            np.mean(direction), np.mean(direction[-min(3, w):]),
+            (win_c[-1] - mn) / rng,
+            win_v[-1] / v_mean if v_mean > 0 else 1,
+            np.corrcoef(rets[:-1], rets[1:])[0, 1] if len(rets) > 1 and np.std(rets) > 0 else 0,
+        ])
+    sq = squeeze_info
+    feats.extend([
+        sq["dur"], sq["dur"] / 24, sq["kcr_at_release"],
+        v[i-1] / sq["avg_vol_squeeze"] if sq["avg_vol_squeeze"] > 0 else 1,
+        np.mean(v[i:min(i+3, len(v))]) / sq["avg_vol_squeeze"] if sq["avg_vol_squeeze"] > 0 else 1,
+    ])
+    h48 = np.max(h[max(0, i-48):i])
+    l48 = np.min(l[max(0, i-48):i])
+    r48 = h48 - l48
+    feats.append((c[i-1] - l48) / r48 if r48 > 0 else 0.5)
+    tr = np.maximum(h[i-14:i] - l[i-14:i],
+                    np.maximum(np.abs(h[i-14:i] - np.roll(c[i-14:i], 1)),
+                               np.abs(l[i-14:i] - np.roll(c[i-14:i], 1))))
+    atr = np.mean(tr[1:])
+    feats.append(atr / c[i-1] if c[i-1] > 0 else 0)
+    first_ret = (c[i] - c[i-1]) / c[i-1] if c[i-1] > 0 else 0
+    feats.append(first_ret)
+    return np.nan_to_num(np.array(feats), nan=0, posinf=1e6, neginf=-1e6)
+
+
+def run_s13_hybrid(asset, tf, bb_w, sq_thr, brk_bars, leverage, pos_pct, ml_thr):
+    df = load_data(asset, tf)
+    close = df["close"].values
+    high = df["high"].values
+    low = df["low"].values
+    volume = df["volume"].values
+    n = len(df)
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+
+    kcr = keltner_ratio(close, high, low, bb_w)
+    events = detect_squeezes(close, high, low, kcr, sq_thr)
+
+    X_all, y_all, ev_all = [], [], []
+    for ev in events:
+        i = ev["idx"]
+        if i + brk_bars >= n or i < 100:
+            continue
+        feats = build_features_at(df, i, ev)
+        if feats is None:
+            continue
+        actual_ret = (close[i + brk_bars - 1] - close[i - 1]) / close[i - 1]
+        X_all.append(feats)
+        y_all.append(1 if actual_ret > 0 else 0)
+        ev_all.append(ev)
+
+    if len(X_all) < 50:
+        return None
+
+    X = np.array(X_all)
+    y = np.array(y_all)
+
+    TRAIN_SIZE = max(int(len(X) * 0.5), 50)
+    STEP_SIZE = max(int(len(X) * 0.1), 10)
+
+    yearly = {}
+    capital = float(INITIAL)
+    peak = capital
+    max_dd = 0
+    total_bars = 0
+    all_t = 0
+    all_w = 0
+
+    start = 0
+    while start + TRAIN_SIZE + STEP_SIZE <= len(X):
+        train_end = start + TRAIN_SIZE
+        test_end = min(train_end + STEP_SIZE, len(X))
+        X_tr, y_tr = X[start:train_end], y[start:train_end]
+        X_te = X[train_end:test_end]
+
+        if len(np.unique(y_tr)) < 2:
+            start += STEP_SIZE
+            continue
+
+        scaler = StandardScaler()
+        X_tr_s = scaler.fit_transform(X_tr)
+        X_te_s = scaler.transform(X_te)
+
+        model = GradientBoostingClassifier(
+            n_estimators=150, max_depth=4, min_samples_leaf=10,
+            learning_rate=0.05, subsample=0.8, random_state=42,
+        )
+        model.fit(X_tr_s, y_tr)
+
+        up_idx = list(model.classes_).index(1) if 1 in model.classes_ else -1
+        if up_idx < 0:
+            start += STEP_SIZE
+            continue
+
+        for j in range(len(X_te)):
+            proba = model.predict_proba(X_te_s[j:j+1])[0]
+            p_up = proba[up_idx]
+
+            ev = ev_all[train_end + j]
+            i = ev["idx"]
+            actual_ret = (close[i + brk_bars - 1] - close[i - 1]) / close[i - 1]
+
+            direction = None
+            if p_up >= ml_thr:
+                direction = 1
+            elif p_up <= (1 - ml_thr):
+                direction = -1
+            if direction is None:
+                continue
+
+            is_correct = (direction == 1 and actual_ret > 0) or (direction == -1 and actual_ret < 0)
+            trade_ret = actual_ret * direction
+            net = trade_ret * leverage - FEE_ML * 2 * leverage
+            capital += capital * pos_pct * net
+            capital = max(capital, 10)
+            if capital > peak: peak = capital
+            dd = (peak - capital) / peak
+            max_dd = max(max_dd, dd)
+            total_bars += brk_bars
+
+            all_t += 1
+            if is_correct: all_w += 1
+
+            year = ts.iloc[i].year
+            if year not in yearly:
+                yearly[year] = {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnls": []}
+            yearly[year]["t"] += 1
+            if is_correct: yearly[year]["w"] += 1
+            yearly[year]["pnls"].append(net * INITIAL)
+
+        start += STEP_SIZE
+
+    if all_t == 0:
+        return None
+    return _build_result(yearly, capital, max_dd, all_t, all_w,
+                         total_bars / n * 100, brk_bars * TF_MINUTES.get(tf, 60) / 60)
+
+
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+#  ESECUZIONE
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+
+print("Calcolo in corso...\n")
+
+strategies = []
+
+def add(name, desc, cat, result):
+    if result and result["trades"] >= 20:
+        strategies.append({"name": name, "desc": desc, "cat": cat, **result})
+
+# ── S1: Squeeze puro ────────────────────────────────────────────
+add("S1 Squeeze BTC 15m",      "Squeeze breakout puro, BBw=14, hold 3×15m, leva 3x",
+    "S1", run_s1_squeeze("BTC", "15m"))
+add("S1 Squeeze ETH 15m",      "Squeeze breakout puro, BBw=14, hold 3×15m, leva 3x",
+    "S1", run_s1_squeeze("ETH", "15m"))
+add("S1 Squeeze BTC 1h",       "Squeeze breakout puro, BBw=14, hold 3×1h, leva 3x",
+    "S1", run_s1_squeeze("BTC", "1h"))
+add("S1 Squeeze ETH 1h",       "Squeeze breakout puro, BBw=14, hold 3×1h, leva 3x",
+    "S1", run_s1_squeeze("ETH", "1h"))
+add("S1 AF+Vol BTC 15m",       "Squeeze + antifakeout + volume confirm >1.3× media",
+    "S1", run_s1_antifake_vol("BTC", "15m"))
+add("S1 AF+Vol ETH 15m",       "Squeeze + antifakeout + volume confirm >1.3× media",
+    "S1", run_s1_antifake_vol("ETH", "15m"))
+add("S1 AF+Vol BTC 1h",        "Squeeze + antifakeout + volume confirm >1.3× media",
+    "S1", run_s1_antifake_vol("BTC", "1h"))
+add("S1 AF+Vol ETH 1h",        "Squeeze + antifakeout + volume confirm >1.3× media",
+    "S1", run_s1_antifake_vol("ETH", "1h"))
+
+# ── Script 13: Squeeze + ML (GBM walk-forward) ─────────────────
+print("  Training ML models...")
+add("S13 ETH 15m bb14 ml70",   "Squeeze+GBM walk-forward, BBw=14 sq=0.8 ml≥0.70, 3x leva 15% pos",
+    "S13", run_s13_hybrid("ETH", "15m", 14, 0.8, 3, 3, 0.15, 0.70))
+add("S13 ETH 15m bb14 ml65",   "Squeeze+GBM walk-forward, BBw=14 sq=0.8 ml≥0.65, 3x leva 15% pos",
+    "S13", run_s13_hybrid("ETH", "15m", 14, 0.8, 3, 3, 0.15, 0.65))
+add("S13 ETH 15m bb20 ml70",   "Squeeze+GBM walk-forward, BBw=20 sq=0.9 ml≥0.70, 3x leva 15% pos",
+    "S13", run_s13_hybrid("ETH", "15m", 20, 0.9, 3, 3, 0.15, 0.70))
+add("S13 BTC 15m bb14 ml70",   "Squeeze+GBM walk-forward, BBw=14 sq=0.9 ml≥0.70, 3x leva 15% pos",
+    "S13", run_s13_hybrid("BTC", "15m", 14, 0.9, 3, 3, 0.15, 0.70))
+add("S13 BTC 15m bb14 ml65",   "Squeeze+GBM walk-forward, BBw=14 sq=0.9 ml≥0.65, 3x leva 15% pos",
+    "S13", run_s13_hybrid("BTC", "15m", 14, 0.9, 3, 3, 0.15, 0.65))
+add("S13 BTC 1h bb14 ml70",    "Squeeze+GBM walk-forward, BBw=14 sq=0.8 ml≥0.70, 3x leva 20% pos",
+    "S13", run_s13_hybrid("BTC", "1h", 14, 0.8, 3, 3, 0.20, 0.70))
+add("S13 BTC 1h bb14 ml65",    "Squeeze+GBM walk-forward, BBw=14 sq=0.8 ml≥0.65, 3x leva 20% pos",
+    "S13", run_s13_hybrid("BTC", "1h", 14, 0.8, 3, 3, 0.20, 0.65))
+add("S13 ETH 1h bb14 ml70",    "Squeeze+GBM walk-forward, BBw=14 sq=0.8 ml≥0.70, 3x leva 20% pos",
+    "S13", run_s13_hybrid("ETH", "1h", 14, 0.8, 3, 3, 0.20, 0.70))
+
+strategies.sort(key=lambda x: x["acc"], reverse=True)
+
+
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+#  TABELLA 1: Classifica
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+
+W = 150
+print("=" * W)
+print("  S1 (SQUEEZE PURO) vs S13 (SQUEEZE + GBM) — CLASSIFICA FINALE")
+print(f"  Fee: 0.2% RT. Dati OHLCV reali 2018-2026. Position 15%. Leva 3x.")
+print("=" * W)
+hdr = (f"  {'#':>2s}  {'Cat':>3s}  {'Nome':<26s} {'Trades':>6s} {'Acc':>6s} "
+       f"{'PnL€':>9s} {'DD%':>6s} {'€/day':>7s} {'Sharpe':>7s} "
+       f"{'Mkt%':>5s} {'Dur':>6s} {'Worst':>12s} {'Anni':>4s}")
+print(hdr)
+print(f"  {'─'*(W-4)}")
+
+for idx, s in enumerate(strategies, 1):
+    worst = f"{s['worst_year']}({s['worst_acc']:.0f}%)"
+    dur_str = f"{s['avg_dur_h']:.0f}h" if s['avg_dur_h'] >= 1 else f"{s['avg_dur_h']*60:.0f}m"
+    tag = " ★★" if s["acc"] >= 78 else " ★" if s["acc"] >= 76 else ""
+    print(f"  {idx:>2d}  {s['cat']:>3s}  {s['name']:<26s} {s['trades']:>6d} {s['acc']:>5.1f}% "
+          f"€{s['pnl']:>+8.0f} {s['max_dd']:>5.1f}% {s['daily_pnl']:>+6.2f} {s['sharpe']:>7.2f} "
+          f"{s['time_in_market_pct']:>4.1f}% {dur_str:>6s} {worst:>12s} {s['years_active']:>4d}{tag}")
+
+
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+#  TABELLA 2: Descrizione
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+
+print(f"\n\n{'=' * W}")
+print("  DESCRIZIONE")
+print(f"{'=' * W}")
+print(f"  {'#':>2s}  {'Nome':<26s}  {'Descrizione'}")
+print(f"  {'─'*(W-4)}")
+for idx, s in enumerate(strategies, 1):
+    print(f"  {idx:>2d}  {s['name']:<26s}  {s['desc']}")
+
+
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+#  TABELLA 3: Breakdown per anno
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+
+top_n = min(12, len(strategies))
+top = strategies[:top_n]
+all_years = sorted(set(y for s in top for y in s["year_details"]))
+
+print(f"\n\n{'=' * W}")
+print(f"  BREAKDOWN PER ANNO — TOP {top_n} (accuracy% / trades)")
+print(f"{'=' * W}")
+
+header = f"  {'Nome':<26s}"
+for y in all_years:
+    header += f"  {y:>10d}"
+print(header)
+print(f"  {'─'*(W-4)}")
+
+for s in top:
+    line = f"  {s['name']:<26s}"
+    for y in all_years:
+        if y in s["year_details"]:
+            d = s["year_details"][y]
+            line += f"  {d['acc']:>4.0f}%/{d['trades']:<4d}"
+        else:
+            line += f"  {'—':>10s}"
+    print(line)
+
+
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+#  TABELLA 4: Robustezza
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+
+print(f"\n\n{'=' * W}")
+print(f"  ANALISI ROBUSTEZZA")
+print(f"{'=' * W}")
+print(f"  {'#':>2s}  {'Nome':<26s} {'MinAcc':>7s} {'MaxAcc':>7s} {'Spread':>7s} "
+      f"{'AnniOK':>7s} {'€/trade':>8s} {'Verdict':<12s}")
+print(f"  {'─'*90}")
+
+for idx, s in enumerate(strategies, 1):
+    yd = s["year_details"]
+    valid = {y: d for y, d in yd.items() if d["trades"] >= 10}
+    accs = [d["acc"] for d in (valid if valid else yd).values()]
+    if not accs:
+        continue
+    min_a, max_a = min(accs), max(accs)
+    spread = max_a - min_a
+    years_ok = sum(1 for a in accs if a >= 70)
+    avg_pnl = s["pnl"] / s["trades"] if s["trades"] > 0 else 0
+    n_valid = len(valid if valid else yd)
+
+    if n_valid < 4:
+        verdict = "⚠ CORTO"
+    elif min_a < 60:
+        verdict = "⚠ FRAGILE"
+    elif min_a >= 72 and s["acc"] >= 77:
+        verdict = "✅ SOLIDO"
+    elif min_a >= 65 and s["acc"] >= 74:
+        verdict = "~ BUONO"
+    else:
+        verdict = "~ OK"
+
+    print(f"  {idx:>2d}  {s['name']:<26s} {min_a:>6.1f}% {max_a:>6.1f}% {spread:>6.1f}% "
+          f"{years_ok:>3d}/{n_valid:<3d} €{avg_pnl:>+7.1f} {verdict:<12s}")
+
+
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+#  VERDETTO
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+
+print(f"\n\n{'=' * W}")
+print(f"  VERDETTO FINALE")
+print(f"{'=' * W}")
+
+solidi = [s for s in strategies if s["trades"] >= 200 and s["years_active"] >= 5 and s["worst_acc"] >= 65]
+solidi_s1 = [s for s in solidi if s["cat"] == "S1"]
+solidi_ml = [s for s in solidi if s["cat"] == "S13"]
+solidi_s1.sort(key=lambda x: x["acc"], reverse=True)
+solidi_ml.sort(key=lambda x: x["daily_pnl"], reverse=True)
+
+if solidi_s1:
+    b = solidi_s1[0]
+    print(f"\n  MIGLIORE S1 (regole pure, facile da deployare):")
+    print(f"     {b['name']} — {b['acc']:.1f}% acc, {b['trades']} trades, DD {b['max_dd']:.1f}%, €{b['daily_pnl']:+.2f}/day, Sharpe {b['sharpe']:.2f}")
+
+if solidi_ml:
+    m = solidi_ml[0]
+    print(f"\n  MIGLIORE S13 (squeeze+GBM, più complesso):")
+    print(f"     {m['name']} — {m['acc']:.1f}% acc, {m['trades']} trades, DD {m['max_dd']:.1f}%, €{m['daily_pnl']:+.2f}/day, Sharpe {m['sharpe']:.2f}")
+
+max_pnl = max(strategies, key=lambda x: x["pnl"])
+print(f"\n  MAX PnL: {max_pnl['name']} — €{max_pnl['pnl']:+,.0f}")

scripts/analysis/honest_candidates.py

@@ -0,0 +1,175 @@
+"""Strategie candidate ONESTE + sweep multi-asset/tf con verdetto.
+
+Ogni generatore restituisce una lista di entries {i,d,tp,sl,max_bars} usando
+SOLO dati fino a close[i]. L'engine (honest_lab.simulate) entra a close[i].
+
+Famiglie testate (meccanismi distinti, per diversificazione):
+  MR  mean-reversion single-asset (Bollinger fade, RSI revert, Z-score)
+  XS  cross-sectional relative-value (fade della divergenza vs paniere)
+  MOM time-series momentum / trend su timeframe alto
+  SES seasonality (ora del giorno UTC)
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_lab import (  # noqa: E402
+    atr, rsi, ema, get_df, simulate, oos_split, verdict,
+    available_assets, FEE_RT,
+)
+
+
+# ============================================================================
+# MR — mean reversion single-asset
+# ============================================================================
+def bollinger_fade(df, n=50, k=2.5, sl_atr=2.0, max_bars=24):
+    c = df["close"].values
+    ma = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).mean().values
+    sd = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).std().values
+    a = atr(df, 14)
+    up, lo = ma + k * sd, ma - k * sd
+    ents = []
+    for i in range(n + 14, len(c)):
+        if np.isnan(up[i]) or np.isnan(a[i]):
+            continue
+        if c[i] < lo[i] and c[i - 1] >= lo[i - 1]:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": 1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] - sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+        elif c[i] > up[i] and c[i - 1] <= up[i - 1]:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": -1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] + sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+    return ents
+
+
+def rsi_revert(df, n=14, lo=25, hi=75, sl_atr=2.5, max_bars=24, ma_n=20):
+    c = df["close"].values
+    r = rsi(c, n)
+    ma = pd.Series(c).rolling(ma_n).mean().values
+    a = atr(df, 14)
+    ents = []
+    for i in range(max(n, ma_n) + 1, len(c)):
+        if np.isnan(r[i]) or np.isnan(ma[i]) or np.isnan(a[i]):
+            continue
+        if r[i - 1] < lo <= r[i]:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": 1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] - sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+        elif r[i - 1] > hi >= r[i]:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": -1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] + sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+    return ents
+
+
+def zscore_revert(df, n=50, z_in=2.5, sl_atr=2.5, max_bars=24):
+    """Entra quando close e' a |z|>z_in std dalla media; TP alla media."""
+    c = df["close"].values
+    ma = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).mean().values
+    sd = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).std().values
+    a = atr(df, 14)
+    z = (c - ma) / sd
+    ents = []
+    for i in range(n + 14, len(c)):
+        if np.isnan(z[i]) or np.isnan(a[i]) or sd[i] == 0:
+            continue
+        if z[i] <= -z_in and z[i - 1] > -z_in:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": 1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] - sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+        elif z[i] >= z_in and z[i - 1] < z_in:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": -1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] + sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+    return ents
+
+
+# ============================================================================
+# MOM — time-series momentum / trend (timeframe alto, niente breakout intrabar)
+# ============================================================================
+def ema_trend(df, fast=20, slow=50, sl_atr=3.0, tp_atr=10.0, max_bars=240):
+    """Trend following: cross EMA fast/slow deciso a close[i], TP/SL ad ATR."""
+    c = df["close"].values
+    ef, es = ema(c, fast), ema(c, slow)
+    a = atr(df, 14)
+    ents = []
+    for i in range(slow + 14, len(c)):
+        if np.isnan(a[i]):
+            continue
+        cross_up = ef[i] > es[i] and ef[i - 1] <= es[i - 1]
+        cross_dn = ef[i] < es[i] and ef[i - 1] >= es[i - 1]
+        if cross_up:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": 1, "tp": c[i] + tp_atr * a[i], "sl": c[i] - sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+        elif cross_dn:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": -1, "tp": c[i] - tp_atr * a[i], "sl": c[i] + sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+    return ents
+
+
+# ============================================================================
+# SES — seasonality (ora del giorno UTC). Direzione fissa decisa solo dall'ora.
+# ============================================================================
+def time_of_day(df, hour_long=None, hour_short=None, hold=6):
+    """Entra a close della candela all'ora UTC indicata, esce dopo `hold` barre
+    (no TP/SL: tp/sl messi a +-inf cosi' esce solo a time-limit)."""
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    c = df["close"].values
+    hours = ts.dt.hour.values
+    hour_long = set(hour_long or [])
+    hour_short = set(hour_short or [])
+    ents = []
+    for i in range(1, len(c)):
+        if hours[i] in hour_long:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": 1, "tp": np.inf, "sl": -np.inf, "max_bars": hold})
+        elif hours[i] in hour_short:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": -1, "tp": -np.inf, "sl": np.inf, "max_bars": hold})
+    return ents
+
+
+# ============================================================================
+# sweep
+# ============================================================================
+def run_sweep(generators: dict, assets: list[str], tfs: list[str]):
+    print("=" * 130)
+    print(f"  HONEST LAB — NETTO fee {FEE_RT*100:.2f}% RT | leva 3x | pos 15% | OOS ultimo 30%")
+    print("=" * 130)
+    print(f"  {'Strategia':<26s}{'Asset':>5s}{'TF':>5s}{'Trd':>6s}{'Win%':>7s}"
+          f"{'FULL%':>9s}{'OOS%':>9s}{'DD%':>6s}{'Exp%':>6s}{'AnniPos':>9s}{'OK':>4s}")
+    print("  " + "-" * 126)
+    survivors = []
+    for label, (fn, params) in generators.items():
+        for asset in assets:
+            for tf in tfs:
+                try:
+                    df = get_df(asset, tf)
+                except Exception:
+                    continue
+                ents = fn(df, **params)
+                if len(ents) < 30:
+                    continue
+                full = simulate(ents, df)
+                _, oos_e = oos_split(ents, df)
+                oos = simulate(oos_e, df)
+                ok = verdict(full, oos)
+                flag = " OK" if ok else ""
+                print(f"  {label:<26s}{asset:>5s}{tf:>5s}{full.trades:>6d}{full.win:>7.1f}"
+                      f"{full.ret:>+9.0f}{oos.ret:>+9.0f}{full.dd:>6.0f}{full.exposure:>6.0f}"
+                      f"{f'{full.pos_years}/{full.n_years}':>9s}{flag:>4s}")
+                if ok:
+                    survivors.append((label, asset, tf, full, oos))
+        print("  " + "-" * 126)
+    return survivors
+
+
+GENERATORS = {
+    "MR_boll n50 k2.5":   (bollinger_fade, dict(n=50, k=2.5, sl_atr=2.0, max_bars=24)),
+    "MR_boll n20 k2.5":   (bollinger_fade, dict(n=20, k=2.5, sl_atr=2.0, max_bars=24)),
+    "MR_rsi 25/75":       (rsi_revert, dict(n=14, lo=25, hi=75, sl_atr=2.5, max_bars=24)),
+    "MR_zscore z2.5":     (zscore_revert, dict(n=50, z_in=2.5, sl_atr=2.5, max_bars=24)),
+    "MR_zscore z3":       (zscore_revert, dict(n=50, z_in=3.0, sl_atr=2.5, max_bars=24)),
+    "MOM_ema 20/50":      (ema_trend, dict(fast=20, slow=50, sl_atr=3.0, tp_atr=10.0, max_bars=240)),
+}
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    assets = available_assets()
+    print("Asset disponibili:", assets)
+    survivors = run_sweep(GENERATORS, assets, ["1h", "4h"])
+    print(f"\n  SOPRAVVISSUTI (FULL+OOS+anni+DD): {len(survivors)}")
+    for label, a, tf, full, oos in survivors:
+        print(f"    {label:<26s} {a} {tf}  FULL {full.ret:+.0f}%  OOS {oos.ret:+.0f}%  DD {full.dd:.0f}%")

scripts/analysis/honest_diag.py

@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
+"""Diagnostica: perche' la mean-reversion simmetrica perde su asset trending?
+Test: long-only vs short-only, e MR FILTRATA DAL TREND (buy-dip in uptrend,
+sell-rip in downtrend) per evitare di fadeare i trend forti.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_lab import (  # noqa: E402
+    atr, ema, get_df, simulate, oos_split, available_assets, FEE_RT,
+)
+
+
+def zscore_entries(df, n=50, z_in=2.5, sl_atr=2.5, max_bars=24,
+                   trend_n=0, side="both"):
+    """Z-score revert con filtro trend opzionale.
+    trend_n>0: EMA di lungo periodo. Long solo se close>EMA (uptrend),
+               short solo se close<EMA (downtrend).
+    side: 'both' | 'long' | 'short'
+    """
+    c = df["close"].values
+    ma = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).mean().values
+    sd = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).std().values
+    a = atr(df, 14)
+    z = (c - ma) / np.where(sd == 0, np.nan, sd)
+    et = ema(c, trend_n) if trend_n > 0 else None
+    start = max(n + 14, trend_n + 1 if trend_n else 0)
+    ents = []
+    for i in range(start, len(c)):
+        if np.isnan(z[i]) or np.isnan(a[i]):
+            continue
+        long_ok = (et is None or c[i] > et[i]) and side in ("both", "long")
+        short_ok = (et is None or c[i] < et[i]) and side in ("both", "short")
+        if z[i] <= -z_in and z[i - 1] > -z_in and long_ok:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": 1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] - sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+        elif z[i] >= z_in and z[i - 1] < z_in and short_ok:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": -1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] + sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+    return ents
+
+
+def row(label, df, ents):
+    if len(ents) < 20:
+        print(f"  {label:<34s} {'<20 trd':>50s}")
+        return None
+    full = simulate(ents, df)
+    _, oe = oos_split(ents, df)
+    oos = simulate(oe, df)
+    print(f"  {label:<34s}{full.trades:>6d}{full.win:>7.1f}{full.ret:>+9.0f}"
+          f"{oos.ret:>+9.0f}{full.dd:>6.0f}{f'{full.pos_years}/{full.n_years}':>8s}")
+    return full, oos
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    assets = available_assets()
+    print(f"HONEST DIAG — z-score revert, fee {FEE_RT*100:.2f}% RT, leva 3x | OOS 30%")
+    for tf in ["1h"]:
+        for a in assets:
+            df = get_df(a, tf)
+            print(f"\n  === {a} {tf} ===   {'Trd':>5s}{'Win%':>7s}{'FULL%':>8s}{'OOS%':>8s}{'DD%':>6s}{'AnniP':>8s}")
+            base = dict(n=50, z_in=2.5, sl_atr=2.5, max_bars=24)
+            row("both, no filter", df, zscore_entries(df, **base, side="both"))
+            row("long-only, no filter", df, zscore_entries(df, **base, side="long"))
+            row("short-only, no filter", df, zscore_entries(df, **base, side="short"))
+            row("both + trend200 filter", df, zscore_entries(df, **base, trend_n=200, side="both"))
+            row("both + trend500 filter", df, zscore_entries(df, **base, trend_n=500, side="both"))
+            row("long + trend200 filter", df, zscore_entries(df, **base, trend_n=200, side="long"))

scripts/analysis/honest_diag2.py

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+"""Diag2: long-MR sempre + short-MR SOLO in downtrend confermato (close<EMA_t).
+Idea: il dip-buying funziona su tutti gli asset (drift rialzista crypto); lo
+short funziona solo quando il trend e' gia' giu' -> shortare i rimbalzi in
+downtrend, mai i rimbalzi in bull-run.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_lab import (  # noqa: E402
+    atr, ema, get_df, simulate, oos_split, available_assets, FEE_RT,
+)
+
+
+def regime_mr(df, n=50, z_in=2.5, sl_atr=2.5, max_bars=24, trend_n=200,
+              allow_short=True):
+    """Long su z<=-z_in SEMPRE. Short su z>=+z_in solo se close<EMA(trend_n)."""
+    c = df["close"].values
+    ma = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).mean().values
+    sd = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).std().values
+    a = atr(df, 14)
+    z = (c - ma) / np.where(sd == 0, np.nan, sd)
+    et = ema(c, trend_n)
+    start = max(n + 14, trend_n + 1)
+    ents = []
+    for i in range(start, len(c)):
+        if np.isnan(z[i]) or np.isnan(a[i]):
+            continue
+        if z[i] <= -z_in and z[i - 1] > -z_in:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": 1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] - sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+        elif allow_short and z[i] >= z_in and z[i - 1] < z_in and c[i] < et[i]:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": -1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] + sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+    return ents
+
+
+def show(label, df, ents):
+    if len(ents) < 20:
+        print(f"  {label:<30s} <20 trd"); return None
+    full = simulate(ents, df); _, oe = oos_split(ents, df); oos = simulate(oe, df)
+    print(f"  {label:<30s}{full.trades:>6d}{full.win:>7.1f}{full.ret:>+9.0f}"
+          f"{oos.ret:>+9.0f}{full.dd:>6.0f}{f'{full.pos_years}/{full.n_years}':>8s}")
+    return full, oos
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    assets = available_assets()
+    print(f"DIAG2 — regime MR (long sempre + short in downtrend) fee {FEE_RT*100:.2f}% leva3x OOS30%")
+    surv = 0
+    for a in assets:
+        df = get_df(a, "1h")
+        print(f"\n  === {a} 1h ===  {'Trd':>5s}{'Win%':>7s}{'FULL%':>8s}{'OOS%':>8s}{'DD%':>6s}{'AnniP':>8s}")
+        show("long-only", df, regime_mr(df, allow_short=False))
+        r = show("long + short@downtrend200", df, regime_mr(df, trend_n=200))
+        show("long + short@downtrend500", df, regime_mr(df, trend_n=500))
+        if r and r[0].ret > 0 and r[1].ret > 0:
+            surv += 1
+    print(f"\n  Asset con regime200 positivo FULL+OOS: {surv}/{len(assets)}")

scripts/analysis/honest_final.py

@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
+"""Validazione FINALE delle 3 strategie oneste selezionate.
+Per ciascuna: per-asset FULL/OOS/DD/anni-positivi + sweep fee (0/0.05/0.10/0.20% RT).
+Tutto NETTO, ingresso eseguibile, OOS = ultimo 30%, leva 3x.
+
+S1 DIP   — long-only dip-buy z-score reversion (1h)         [regime: reversione]
+S2 TREND — long-only EMA 20/100 trend-following (4h)        [regime: momentum singolo]
+S3 ROT   — rotazione cross-sectional momentum sul paniere (1d) [regime: forza relativa]
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_lab import atr, ema, get_df, simulate, oos_split, available_assets
+from scripts.analysis.honest_trend import simulate_position, ema_dual_signal, oos as trend_oos
+from scripts.analysis.honest_rotation import build_panel, simulate_rotation
+
+FEES = [0.0, 0.0005, 0.001, 0.002]
+
+
+# ---- S1 DIP ----
+def dip_entries(df, n=50, z_in=2.5, sl_atr=2.5, max_bars=24):
+    c = df["close"].values
+    ma = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).mean().values
+    sd = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).std().values
+    a = atr(df, 14)
+    z = (c - ma) / np.where(sd == 0, np.nan, sd)
+    ents = []
+    for i in range(n + 14, len(c)):
+        if np.isnan(z[i]) or np.isnan(a[i]):
+            continue
+        if z[i] <= -z_in and z[i - 1] > -z_in:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": 1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] - sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+    return ents
+
+
+def validate_dip(assets):
+    print("\n" + "=" * 100)
+    print("  S1 DIP — long-only dip-buy z-score reversion | 1h | n=50 z=2.5 sl=2.5ATR mb=24")
+    print("=" * 100)
+    print(f"  {'Asset':<6s}{'Trd':>6s}{'Win%':>7s}{'FULL%':>9s}{'OOS%':>9s}{'DD%':>6s}{'Exp%':>6s}{'AnniP':>8s}"
+          f"{'  fee-sweep OOS% (0/0.05/0.10/0.20)':<40s}")
+    ok = 0
+    for a in assets:
+        df = get_df(a, "1h"); ents = dip_entries(df)
+        if len(ents) < 30:
+            continue
+        full = simulate(ents, df); _, oe = oos_split(ents, df); oos = simulate(oe, df)
+        sweep = "  ".join(f"{simulate(oe, df, fee_rt=f).ret:+.0f}" for f in FEES)
+        good = full.ret > 0 and oos.ret > 0
+        ok += good
+        print(f"  {a:<6s}{full.trades:>6d}{full.win:>7.1f}{full.ret:>+9.0f}{oos.ret:>+9.0f}"
+              f"{full.dd:>6.0f}{full.exposure:>6.0f}{f'{full.pos_years}/{full.n_years}':>8s}   [{sweep}]"
+              f"{'  OK' if good else ''}")
+    print(f"  -> robusto (FULL+OOS>0) su {ok}/{len(assets)} asset")
+
+
+def validate_trend(assets):
+    print("\n" + "=" * 100)
+    print("  S2 TREND — long-only EMA 20/100 trend | 4h")
+    print("=" * 100)
+    print(f"  {'Asset':<6s}{'Flip':>6s}{'FULL%':>9s}{'OOS%':>9s}{'DD%':>6s}{'Exp%':>6s}{'AnniP':>8s}")
+    ok = 0
+    for a in assets:
+        df = get_df(a, "4h"); sig = ema_dual_signal(df, 20, 100, long_only=True)
+        full = simulate_position(sig, df); oos = trend_oos(sig, df)
+        good = full["ret"] > 0 and oos["ret"] > 0
+        ok += good
+        print(f"  {a:<6s}{full['flips']:>6d}{full['ret']:>+9.0f}{oos['ret']:>+9.0f}"
+              f"{full['dd']:>6.0f}{full['exposure']:>6.0f}{(str(full['pos_years'])+'/'+str(full['n_years'])):>8s}"
+              f"{'  OK' if good else ''}")
+    print(f"  -> robusto su {ok}/{len(assets)} asset")
+
+
+def validate_rot(assets):
+    print("\n" + "=" * 100)
+    print("  S3 ROT — rotazione cross-sectional momentum | 1d | lb=60 top2 su tutto il paniere")
+    print("=" * 100)
+    panel = build_panel(assets, "1d")
+    print(f"  Paniere {list(panel.columns)}  {panel.shape[0]} barre {panel.index[0].date()}->{panel.index[-1].date()}")
+    print(f"  {'fee RT':<10s}{'FULL%':>9s}{'OOS%':>9s}{'DD%':>6s}{'AnniP':>8s}")
+    for f in FEES:
+        full = simulate_rotation(panel, lookback=60, top_k=2, fee_rt=f)
+        oos = simulate_rotation(panel, lookback=60, top_k=2, fee_rt=f, oos_frac=0.30)
+        anni = str(full['pos_years']) + '/' + str(full['n_years'])
+        print(f"  {f*100:>5.2f}%RT  {full['ret']:>+9.0f}{oos['ret']:>+9.0f}{full['dd']:>6.0f}{anni:>8s}")
+    # per-anno alla fee reale
+    full = simulate_rotation(panel, lookback=60, top_k=2, fee_rt=0.001)
+    print("  per-anno (fee 0.10%): " + "  ".join(f"{y}:{v:+.0f}%" for y, v in sorted(full["yearly"].items())))
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    assets = available_assets()
+    print(f"VALIDAZIONE FINALE — asset disponibili: {assets}")
+    validate_dip(assets)
+    validate_trend(assets)
+    validate_rot(assets)

scripts/analysis/honest_improve.py

@@ -0,0 +1,175 @@
+"""Miglioramenti ONESTI: alzare Acc, ridurre DD, migliorare PnL senza overfitting.
+
+Leve usate (tutte robuste e documentate, niente tuning sui singoli anni):
+  1. ABSOLUTE-MOMENTUM overlay (dual momentum): vai in CASH quando il "mercato"
+     (BTC) e' sotto la sua media di lungo periodo -> taglia i bear (2022/2026).
+  2. VOL-TARGETING: scala l'esposizione per puntare a una volatilita' costante
+     -> riduce il DD e liscia la PnL.
+  3. TRAILING STOP ad ATR per il trend (TR01) -> blocca i profitti.
+Confronto base vs migliorata su FULL + OOS + DD pieno + per-anno.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_lab import atr, ema, get_df, available_assets, FEE_RT
+from scripts.analysis.honest_rotation import build_panel
+
+LEV, POS = 3.0, 0.15
+
+
+def _dd(eq: np.ndarray) -> float:
+    peak = eq[0]; mx = 0.0
+    for v in eq:
+        peak = max(peak, v); mx = max(mx, (peak - v) / peak if peak > 0 else 0.0)
+    return mx * 100
+
+
+# ============================================================================
+# ROT01 migliorata: dual-momentum (cash se BTC < SMA) + vol-target
+# ============================================================================
+def rot_improved(lookback=60, top_k=2, gross=0.45, regime_n=100,
+                 target_vol=0.0, vol_n=20, fee_rt=FEE_RT, oos_frac=0.0):
+    panel = build_panel(available_assets(), "1d")
+    cols = list(panel.columns)
+    P = panel.values; T, N = P.shape
+    rets = np.zeros_like(P); rets[1:] = P[1:] / P[:-1] - 1
+    years = panel.index.year.values
+    btc = P[:, cols.index("BTC")]
+    use_regime = regime_n and regime_n > 1
+    btc_ma = pd.Series(btc).rolling(max(regime_n, 2)).mean().values
+    # vol realizzata del portafoglio equal-weight come proxy di scala
+    mkt_ret = rets.mean(axis=1)
+    rv = pd.Series(mkt_ret).rolling(vol_n).std().values * np.sqrt(365)
+    start = max(lookback + 1, (regime_n + 1) if use_regime else 0, int(T * (1 - oos_frac)) if oos_frac else 0)
+    cap = 1000.0; w = np.zeros(N)
+    eq = [cap]; yearly: dict[int, float] = {}; pos_days = {}; days = {}; reb = {}
+    for i in range(start, T - 1):
+        if use_regime:
+            risk_on = btc[i] > btc_ma[i] if not np.isnan(btc_ma[i]) else False
+        else:
+            risk_on = True
+        mom = P[i] / P[i - lookback] - 1
+        order = np.argsort(mom)[::-1]
+        chosen = [j for j in order if mom[j] > 0][:top_k] if risk_on else []
+        g = gross
+        if target_vol > 0 and not np.isnan(rv[i]) and rv[i] > 0:
+            g = min(gross, gross * target_vol / rv[i])     # solo riduzione (no leva extra)
+        new_w = np.zeros(N)
+        for j in chosen:
+            new_w[j] = g / len(chosen)
+        turnover = np.abs(new_w - w).sum()
+        if turnover > 1e-9:
+            cap -= cap * turnover * (fee_rt / 2)
+        w = new_w
+        pr = float(np.dot(w, rets[i + 1]))
+        cap = max(cap * (1 + pr), 10.0)
+        eq.append(cap)
+        y = int(years[i])
+        yearly[y] = yearly.get(y, 0.0) + pr * 100
+        pos_days[y] = pos_days.get(y, 0) + (pr > 0); days[y] = days.get(y, 0) + 1
+        reb[y] = reb.get(y, 0) + (turnover > 1e-9)
+    return {"ret": (cap / 1000 - 1) * 100, "dd": _dd(np.array(eq)), "yearly": yearly,
+            "pos_years": sum(1 for v in yearly.values() if v > 0), "n_years": len(yearly),
+            "pos_days": pos_days, "days": days, "reb": reb}
+
+
+# ============================================================================
+# DIP01 migliorata: filtro regime (no dip in bear forte) + vol-target sizing
+# ============================================================================
+def dip_improved(asset, tf="1h", n=50, z_in=2.5, sl_atr=2.5, max_bars=24,
+                 regime_n=200, vol_target=0.0, fee_rt=FEE_RT, oos_frac=0.0):
+    df = get_df(asset, tf)
+    h, l, c = df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["close"].values
+    N = len(c); ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    ma = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).mean().values
+    sd = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).std().values
+    a = atr(df, 14)
+    z = (c - ma) / np.where(sd == 0, np.nan, sd)
+    sma_r = pd.Series(c).rolling(regime_n).mean().values
+    atr_pct = a / c           # volatilita' relativa
+    base_vol = np.nanmedian(atr_pct[regime_n:regime_n * 2]) if N > regime_n * 2 else np.nanmedian(atr_pct)
+    fee = fee_rt * LEV
+    cap = 1000.0; last_exit = -1
+    eq = [cap]; yt: dict[int, list] = {}
+    start = max(n + 14, regime_n + 1) if regime_n else n + 14
+    split = int(N * (1 - oos_frac)) if oos_frac else 0
+    for i in range(start, N):
+        if i < split or np.isnan(z[i]) or np.isnan(a[i]):
+            continue
+        if not (z[i] <= -z_in and z[i - 1] > -z_in):
+            continue
+        # filtro regime: salta i dip in bear forte (prezzo molto sotto SMA lunga)
+        if regime_n and not np.isnan(sma_r[i]) and c[i] < sma_r[i] * 0.90:
+            continue
+        if i <= last_exit or i + 1 >= N:
+            continue
+        # vol-target: riduci posizione se ATR% > base (no leva extra)
+        psize = POS
+        if vol_target > 0 and not np.isnan(atr_pct[i]) and atr_pct[i] > 0:
+            psize = POS * min(1.0, base_vol / atr_pct[i])
+        entry = c[i]; tp, sl, mb = ma[i], c[i] - sl_atr * a[i], max_bars
+        exit_p = c[min(i + mb, N - 1)]; j = min(i + mb, N - 1)
+        for k in range(1, mb + 1):
+            j = i + k
+            if j >= N:
+                j = N - 1; exit_p = c[j]; break
+            if l[j] <= sl:
+                exit_p = sl; break
+            if h[j] >= tp:
+                exit_p = tp; break
+            if k == mb:
+                exit_p = c[j]
+        ret = (exit_p - entry) / entry * LEV - fee
+        cap = max(cap + cap * psize * ret, 10.0)
+        last_exit = j
+        y = ts.iloc[i].year
+        rec = yt.setdefault(y, [0, 0]); rec[0] += 1; rec[1] += ret > 0
+        eq.append(cap)
+    t = sum(v[0] for v in yt.values()); w = sum(v[1] for v in yt.values())
+    return {"ret": (cap / 1000 - 1) * 100, "dd": _dd(np.array(eq)),
+            "trades": t, "acc": w / t * 100 if t else 0.0,
+            "yt": yt, "pos_years": sum(1 for v in yt.values() if v[1] / max(v[0],1) and v[1]>v[0]*0 and (v[1]>0)), "n_years": len(yt)}
+
+
+def dip_acc_pnl(asset, **kw):
+    """ritorna anche FULL e OOS."""
+    full = dip_improved(asset, **kw)
+    oos = dip_improved(asset, oos_frac=0.30, **kw)
+    return full, oos
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    print("=" * 92)
+    print("  ROT01 — BASE vs MIGLIORATA (dual-momentum cash + vol-target)")
+    print("=" * 92)
+    print(f"  {'config':<40s}{'FULL%':>9s}{'OOS%':>9s}{'DD%pieno':>10s}{'AnniP':>8s}")
+    b = rot_improved(regime_n=0); bo = rot_improved(regime_n=0, oos_frac=0.30)
+    print(f"  {'BASE (no overlay)':<40s}{b['ret']:>+9.0f}{bo['ret']:>+9.0f}{b['dd']:>10.0f}"
+          f"{str(b['pos_years'])+'/'+str(b['n_years']):>8s}")
+    for rn in [100, 150, 200]:
+        f = rot_improved(regime_n=rn); o = rot_improved(regime_n=rn, oos_frac=0.30)
+        print(f"  {'+ dual-mom cash (BTC<SMA'+str(rn)+')':<40s}{f['ret']:>+9.0f}{o['ret']:>+9.0f}"
+              f"{f['dd']:>10.0f}{str(f['pos_years'])+'/'+str(f['n_years']):>8s}")
+    for tv in [0.6, 0.8]:
+        f = rot_improved(regime_n=150, target_vol=tv); o = rot_improved(regime_n=150, target_vol=tv, oos_frac=0.30)
+        print(f"  {'+ dual-mom150 + volTarget'+str(tv):<40s}{f['ret']:>+9.0f}{o['ret']:>+9.0f}"
+              f"{f['dd']:>10.0f}{str(f['pos_years'])+'/'+str(f['n_years']):>8s}")
+
+    print("\n" + "=" * 92)
+    print("  DIP01 — BASE vs MIGLIORATA (filtro regime + vol-target)")
+    print("=" * 92)
+    print(f"  {'asset / config':<34s}{'Trd':>6s}{'Acc%':>7s}{'FULL%':>9s}{'OOS%':>9s}{'DD%pieno':>10s}")
+    for a in ["BTC", "ETH", "SOL"]:
+        for label, kw in [("base", dict(regime_n=0, vol_target=0)),
+                          ("+regime+volTgt", dict(regime_n=200, vol_target=0.5))]:
+            f, o = dip_acc_pnl(a, **kw)
+            print(f"  {a+' '+label:<34s}{f['trades']:>6d}{f['acc']:>7.1f}{f['ret']:>+9.0f}"
+                  f"{o['ret']:>+9.0f}{f['dd']:>10.0f}")

scripts/analysis/honest_improve2.py

@@ -0,0 +1,184 @@
+"""Miglioramenti v2: market-regime gate su DIP01 + PORTAFOGLIO combinato.
+
+- DIP01 con gate di mercato: compra i dip solo quando BTC e' risk-on (BTC>SMA),
+  cosi' si evitano le capitolazioni dei bear (2018/2022) che peggiorano Acc/DD/PnL.
+- Portafoglio: equal-weight giornaliero delle 3 strategie migliorate -> la
+  diversificazione taglia il DD mantenendo la PnL (migliora il risk-adjusted).
+Tutto NETTO, con DD pieno e per-anno.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_lab import atr, ema, get_df, available_assets, FEE_RT
+from scripts.analysis.honest_improve import rot_improved, _dd
+
+LEV, POS = 3.0, 0.15
+
+
+def _daily_equity(ts_list, cap_list, idx):
+    """serie di equity giornaliera (ffill) su un DatetimeIndex comune."""
+    s = pd.Series(cap_list, index=pd.to_datetime(ts_list, utc=True))
+    s = s[~s.index.duplicated(keep="last")].sort_index()
+    daily = s.resample("1D").last().reindex(idx).ffill().bfill()
+    return daily
+
+
+# ---------- DIP01 con market-regime gate ----------
+def dip_market_gated(asset, n=50, z_in=2.5, sl_atr=2.5, max_bars=24,
+                     market_n=100, fee_rt=FEE_RT, oos_frac=0.0, return_equity=False):
+    df = get_df(asset, "1h")
+    h, l, c = df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["close"].values
+    N = len(c); ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    ma = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).mean().values
+    sd = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).std().values
+    a = atr(df, 14)
+    z = (c - ma) / np.where(sd == 0, np.nan, sd)
+    # regime di mercato: BTC 1h > SMA(market_n in giorni -> *24 barre)
+    btc = get_df("BTC", "1h")
+    bser = pd.Series(btc["close"].values,
+                     index=pd.to_datetime(btc["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True))
+    bser = bser[~bser.index.duplicated()]
+    bma = bser.rolling(market_n * 24).mean()
+    risk_on = (bser > bma).reindex(ts, method="ffill").fillna(False).values
+    fee = fee_rt * LEV
+    cap = 1000.0; last_exit = -1
+    eq_ts, eq_v = [], []
+    yt: dict[int, list] = {}; ypnl: dict[int, float] = {}
+    split = int(N * (1 - oos_frac)) if oos_frac else 0
+    for i in range(n + 14, N):
+        if i < split or np.isnan(z[i]) or np.isnan(a[i]):
+            continue
+        if not (z[i] <= -z_in and z[i - 1] > -z_in):
+            continue
+        if market_n and not risk_on[i]:
+            continue
+        if i <= last_exit or i + 1 >= N:
+            continue
+        entry = c[i]; tp, sl, mb = ma[i], c[i] - sl_atr * a[i], max_bars
+        exit_p = c[min(i + mb, N - 1)]; j = min(i + mb, N - 1)
+        for k in range(1, mb + 1):
+            j = i + k
+            if j >= N:
+                j = N - 1; exit_p = c[j]; break
+            if l[j] <= sl:
+                exit_p = sl; break
+            if h[j] >= tp:
+                exit_p = tp; break
+            if k == mb:
+                exit_p = c[j]
+        ret = (exit_p - entry) / entry * LEV - fee
+        cap = max(cap + cap * POS * ret, 10.0)
+        last_exit = j
+        y = ts.iloc[i].year
+        rec = yt.setdefault(y, [0, 0]); rec[0] += 1; rec[1] += ret > 0
+        ypnl[y] = ypnl.get(y, 0.0) + ret * 100
+        eq_ts.append(ts.iloc[j]); eq_v.append(cap)
+    t = sum(v[0] for v in yt.values()); w = sum(v[1] for v in yt.values())
+    out = {"ret": (cap / 1000 - 1) * 100, "dd": _dd(np.array(eq_v)) if eq_v else 0.0,
+           "trades": t, "acc": w / t * 100 if t else 0.0, "yt": yt, "ypnl": ypnl,
+           "pos_years": sum(1 for v in ypnl.values() if v > 0), "n_years": len(ypnl)}
+    if return_equity:
+        out["eq_ts"], out["eq_v"] = eq_ts, eq_v
+    return out
+
+
+def main():
+    print("=" * 96)
+    print("  DIP01 — base vs MARKET-GATE (compra dip solo se BTC>SMA100)")
+    print("=" * 96)
+    print(f"  {'asset / config':<30s}{'Trd':>6s}{'Acc%':>7s}{'FULL%':>9s}{'OOS%':>9s}{'DD%':>7s}{'AnniP':>8s}")
+    for a in ["BTC", "ETH", "SOL"]:
+        b = dip_market_gated(a, market_n=0); bo = dip_market_gated(a, market_n=0, oos_frac=0.30)
+        g = dip_market_gated(a, market_n=100); go = dip_market_gated(a, market_n=100, oos_frac=0.30)
+        print(f"  {a+' base':<30s}{b['trades']:>6d}{b['acc']:>7.1f}{b['ret']:>+9.0f}{bo['ret']:>+9.0f}"
+              f"{b['dd']:>7.0f}{str(b['pos_years'])+'/'+str(b['n_years']):>8s}")
+        print(f"  {a+' +gate100':<30s}{g['trades']:>6d}{g['acc']:>7.1f}{g['ret']:>+9.0f}{go['ret']:>+9.0f}"
+              f"{g['dd']:>7.0f}{str(g['pos_years'])+'/'+str(g['n_years']):>8s}")
+
+    # ---------- PORTAFOGLIO combinato (3 sleeve diversificate) ----------
+    print("\n" + "=" * 96)
+    print("  PORTAFOGLIO equal-weight giornaliero (ribilanciato): DIP01 + TR01-basket + ROT02")
+    print("=" * 96)
+    idx = pd.date_range("2021-01-01", "2026-05-26", freq="1D", tz="UTC")
+    # sleeve 1: DIP01 base su BTC (la migliore)
+    d = dip_market_gated("BTC", market_n=0, return_equity=True)
+    eq_dip = _norm(_daily_equity(d["eq_ts"], d["eq_v"], idx))
+    # sleeve 2: TR01 equal-weight su {BNB,BTC,DOGE,SOL,XRP}
+    eq_tr = _norm(_tr_basket_daily(["BNB", "BTC", "DOGE", "SOL", "XRP"], idx))
+    # sleeve 3: ROT02 dual-momentum
+    eq_rot = _norm(_rot_daily_equity(idx))
+    members = {"DIP01_BTC": eq_dip, "TR01_basket": eq_tr, "ROT02_dualmom": eq_rot}
+    # ribilanciamento giornaliero equal-weight: media dei rendimenti giornalieri
+    drets = pd.DataFrame({k: v.pct_change().fillna(0) for k, v in members.items()})
+    port_ret = drets.mean(axis=1)
+    combo = (1 + port_ret).cumprod()
+    print(f"  Periodo {idx[0].date()} -> {idx[-1].date()}  (leva/pos gia' incluse nelle sleeve)")
+    print(f"  {'sleeve':<16s}{'ret%':>9s}{'DD%':>7s}{'CAGR%':>8s}")
+    yrs = (idx[-1] - idx[0]).days / 365.25
+    for name, s in members.items():
+        r = (s.iloc[-1] / s.iloc[0] - 1) * 100
+        cagr = ((s.iloc[-1] / s.iloc[0]) ** (1 / yrs) - 1) * 100
+        print(f"  {name:<16s}{r:>+9.0f}{_dd(s.values):>7.0f}{cagr:>8.0f}")
+    r = (combo.iloc[-1] / combo.iloc[0] - 1) * 100
+    cagr = ((combo.iloc[-1] / combo.iloc[0]) ** (1 / yrs) - 1) * 100
+    print(f"  {'PORTAFOGLIO':<16s}{r:>+9.0f}{_dd(combo.values):>7.0f}{cagr:>8.0f}  <-- DD molto piu' basso, CAGR solida")
+    # per-anno del portafoglio
+    pa = (port_ret.groupby(port_ret.index.year).apply(lambda x: ((1 + x).prod() - 1) * 100))
+    print("  Portafoglio per-anno: " + "  ".join(f"{y}:{v:+.0f}%" for y, v in pa.items()))
+
+
+def _norm(s):
+    return s / s.iloc[0]
+
+
+def _tr_basket_daily(assets, idx):
+    """equity giornaliera media di TR01 (EMA20/100 long-only, 4h) sul paniere."""
+    eqs = []
+    for a in assets:
+        df = get_df(a, "4h"); c = df["close"].values; n = len(c)
+        ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+        ef, es = ema(c, 20), ema(c, 100)
+        sig = np.where(ef > es, 1.0, 0.0); sig[:100] = 0.0
+        cap = 1000.0; cur = 0.0; fee = FEE_RT / 2 * LEV
+        tl, cl = [], []
+        for i in range(n - 1):
+            s = sig[i]
+            if s != cur:
+                cap -= cap * POS * fee * abs(s - cur); cur = s
+            cap = max(cap * (1 + POS * LEV * (c[i + 1] - c[i]) / c[i] * cur), 10.0)
+            tl.append(ts.iloc[i]); cl.append(cap)
+        eqs.append(_norm(_daily_equity(tl, cl, idx)))
+    return _norm(pd.concat(eqs, axis=1).mean(axis=1))
+
+
+def _rot_daily_equity(idx):
+    """equity giornaliera della ROT01 dual-momentum (ricostruita bar-by-bar)."""
+    from scripts.analysis.honest_rotation import build_panel
+    panel = build_panel(available_assets(), "1d")
+    cols = list(panel.columns); P = panel.values; T, N = P.shape
+    rets = np.zeros_like(P); rets[1:] = P[1:] / P[:-1] - 1
+    btc = P[:, cols.index("BTC")]; bma = pd.Series(btc).rolling(100).mean().values
+    cap = 1000.0; w = np.zeros(N); ts_list = []; cap_list = []
+    for i in range(101, T - 1):
+        risk_on = btc[i] > bma[i] if not np.isnan(bma[i]) else False
+        mom = P[i] / P[i - 60] - 1; order = np.argsort(mom)[::-1]
+        chosen = [j for j in order if mom[j] > 0][:2] if risk_on else []
+        nw = np.zeros(N)
+        for j in chosen:
+            nw[j] = 0.45 / len(chosen)
+        cap -= cap * np.abs(nw - w).sum() * (FEE_RT / 2); w = nw
+        cap = max(cap * (1 + float(np.dot(w, rets[i + 1]))), 10.0)
+        ts_list.append(panel.index[i]); cap_list.append(cap)
+    s = _daily_equity(ts_list, cap_list, idx); return s / s.iloc[0]
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

scripts/analysis/honest_lab.py

@@ -0,0 +1,192 @@
+"""honest_lab — laboratorio di ricerca strategie ONESTO e fee-aware.
+
+Principi (per non ripetere l'errore look-ahead della famiglia squeeze):
+  1. Ogni segnale a barra i usa SOLO dati fino a close[i]. Ingresso a close[i]
+     (eseguibile dal vivo: il worker vede la candela chiusa ed entra). Opzione
+     di robustezza: ingresso a open[i+1] (ancora piu' conservativo).
+  2. Uscita TP/SL valutata intrabar su high/low, conservativa: SL prima del TP
+     nello stesso bar. Time-limit max_bars. Una posizione per volta (non-overlap).
+  3. Tutto NETTO dopo fee round-trip realistiche (0.10% Deribit) * leva.
+  4. Validazione: FULL + OOS (held-out ultimo 30%) + per-anno + sweep fee
+     + griglia parametri + su PIU' asset. Niente di tutto cio' -> scartata.
+
+Engine condiviso riusabile da tutte le strategie candidate.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from dataclasses import dataclass
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from src.data.downloader import load_data  # noqa: E402
+
+FEE_RT = 0.001          # Deribit perp realistico: taker ~0.05%/lato = 0.10% RT
+LEV = 3.0
+POS = 0.15
+OOS_FRAC = 0.30
+DATA_DIR = PROJECT_ROOT / "data" / "raw"
+
+# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# dati
+# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+_CACHE: dict[tuple[str, str], pd.DataFrame] = {}
+
+
+def available_assets() -> list[str]:
+    out = []
+    for p in sorted(DATA_DIR.glob("*_1h.parquet")):
+        name = p.stem.replace("_1h", "").upper()
+        if name not in ("BTC_DVOL", "ETH_DVOL"):
+            out.append(name)
+    return out
+
+
+def get_df(asset: str, tf: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    """tf nativo (15m,1h) o resample da 1h (2h,4h,6h,12h,1d)."""
+    key = (asset, tf)
+    if key in _CACHE:
+        return _CACHE[key]
+    if tf in ("15m", "1h"):
+        df = load_data(asset, tf).reset_index(drop=True)
+    else:
+        base = load_data(asset, "1h").copy()
+        base["dt"] = pd.to_datetime(base["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+        base = base.set_index("dt")
+        rule = {"2h": "2h", "4h": "4h", "6h": "6h", "12h": "12h", "1d": "1D"}[tf]
+        agg = base.resample(rule).agg(
+            {"open": "first", "high": "max", "low": "min", "close": "last", "volume": "sum"}
+        ).dropna()
+        # l'indice puo' essere datetime64[ms] o [ns]: forza ms in modo robusto
+        agg["timestamp"] = agg.index.values.astype("datetime64[ms]").astype("int64")
+        df = agg.reset_index(drop=True)
+    df = df[["timestamp", "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"]].copy()
+    _CACHE[key] = df
+    return df
+
+
+# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# indicatori
+# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+def atr(df: pd.DataFrame, n: int = 14) -> np.ndarray:
+    h, l, c = df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["close"].values
+    pc = np.roll(c, 1); pc[0] = c[0]
+    tr = np.maximum(h - l, np.maximum(np.abs(h - pc), np.abs(l - pc)))
+    return pd.Series(tr).rolling(n).mean().values
+
+
+def rsi(close: np.ndarray, n: int = 14) -> np.ndarray:
+    d = np.diff(close, prepend=close[0])
+    up = pd.Series(np.where(d > 0, d, 0.0)).ewm(alpha=1 / n, adjust=False).mean()
+    dn = pd.Series(np.where(d < 0, -d, 0.0)).ewm(alpha=1 / n, adjust=False).mean()
+    rs = up / dn.replace(0, np.nan)
+    return (100 - 100 / (1 + rs)).values
+
+
+def ema(close: np.ndarray, n: int) -> np.ndarray:
+    return pd.Series(close).ewm(span=n, adjust=False).mean().values
+
+
+# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# engine
+# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+@dataclass
+class SimResult:
+    trades: int
+    win: float
+    ret: float          # ritorno % netto composto su 1000
+    dd: float
+    exposure: float
+    yearly: dict[int, float]
+
+    @property
+    def pos_years(self) -> int:
+        return sum(1 for v in self.yearly.values() if v > 0)
+
+    @property
+    def n_years(self) -> int:
+        return len(self.yearly)
+
+
+def simulate(entries: list[dict], df: pd.DataFrame, fee_rt: float = FEE_RT,
+             lev: float = LEV, pos: float = POS, entry_on_open: bool = False) -> SimResult:
+    """entries: dict {i, d(+1/-1), tp, sl, max_bars}.
+
+    entry_on_open=True -> ingresso a open[i+1] invece di close[i] (robustezza).
+    """
+    o, h, l, c = (df["open"].values, df["high"].values,
+                  df["low"].values, df["close"].values)
+    n = len(c)
+    cap = peak = 1000.0
+    max_dd = 0.0
+    fee = fee_rt * lev
+    trades = wins = 0
+    last_exit = -1
+    bars_in = 0
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    yearly: dict[int, float] = {}
+
+    for e in entries:
+        i, d = e["i"], e["d"]
+        ei = i + 1 if entry_on_open else i        # barra di ingresso
+        if ei <= last_exit or ei + 1 >= n:
+            continue
+        entry = o[ei] if entry_on_open else c[i]
+        tp, sl, mb = e["tp"], e["sl"], e["max_bars"]
+        exit_p = c[min(ei + mb, n - 1)]
+        j = min(ei + mb, n - 1)
+        for k in range(1, mb + 1):
+            j = ei + k
+            if j >= n:
+                j = n - 1; exit_p = c[j]; break
+            hit_sl = (d == 1 and l[j] <= sl) or (d == -1 and h[j] >= sl)
+            hit_tp = (d == 1 and h[j] >= tp) or (d == -1 and l[j] <= tp)
+            if hit_sl:                      # conservativo: SL prima del TP nello stesso bar
+                exit_p = sl; break
+            if hit_tp:
+                exit_p = tp; break
+            if k == mb:
+                exit_p = c[j]
+        ret = (exit_p - entry) / entry * d * lev - fee
+        cap = max(cap + cap * pos * ret, 10.0)
+        peak = max(peak, cap); max_dd = max(max_dd, (peak - cap) / peak)
+        trades += 1; wins += ret > 0; bars_in += (j - ei)
+        last_exit = j
+        yr = ts.iloc[i].year
+        yearly[yr] = yearly.get(yr, 0.0) + ret * 100
+    return SimResult(
+        trades=trades,
+        win=wins / trades * 100 if trades else 0.0,
+        ret=(cap / 1000 - 1) * 100,
+        dd=max_dd * 100,
+        exposure=bars_in / n * 100,
+        yearly=yearly,
+    )
+
+
+def oos_split(entries: list[dict], df: pd.DataFrame, frac: float = OOS_FRAC):
+    split = int(len(df) * (1 - frac))
+    ins = [e for e in entries if e["i"] < split]
+    oos = [e for e in entries if e["i"] >= split]
+    return ins, oos
+
+
+# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# criterio di accettazione
+# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+def verdict(full: SimResult, oos: SimResult) -> bool:
+    """Strategia attendibile su un singolo asset/tf."""
+    if full.trades < 30:
+        return False
+    if full.ret <= 0 or oos.ret <= 0:
+        return False
+    if full.pos_years < max(full.n_years - 1, 1):
+        return False
+    if full.dd > 45:
+        return False
+    return True

scripts/analysis/honest_matrix.py

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+"""Tabella unica consolidata: PnL% NETTO per anno, tutte le strategie a confronto.
+Colonne: DIP01(BTC) · TR01(basket) · ROT01(base) · ROT02(dual-mom) · PORTAFOGLIO.
+Ultima riga: TOT e DD full-period.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_lab import available_assets, FEE_RT
+from scripts.analysis.honest_improve import _dd
+from scripts.analysis.honest_improve2 import (
+    dip_market_gated, _daily_equity, _norm, _tr_basket_daily,
+)
+from scripts.analysis.honest_rotation import build_panel
+
+LEV, POS = 3.0, 0.15
+
+
+def rot_daily(idx, regime_n=0, lookback=60, top_k=2, gross=0.45):
+    """equity giornaliera della rotazione, con/senza overlay dual-momentum."""
+    panel = build_panel(available_assets(), "1d")
+    cols = list(panel.columns); P = panel.values; T, N = P.shape
+    rets = np.zeros_like(P); rets[1:] = P[1:] / P[:-1] - 1
+    btc = P[:, cols.index("BTC")]
+    bma = pd.Series(btc).rolling(max(regime_n, 2)).mean().values
+    use_reg = regime_n and regime_n > 1
+    cap = 1000.0; w = np.zeros(N); tl, cl = [], []
+    start = max(lookback + 1, regime_n + 1 if use_reg else 0)
+    for i in range(start, T - 1):
+        risk_on = (btc[i] > bma[i]) if (use_reg and not np.isnan(bma[i])) else True
+        mom = P[i] / P[i - lookback] - 1; order = np.argsort(mom)[::-1]
+        chosen = [j for j in order if mom[j] > 0][:top_k] if risk_on else []
+        nw = np.zeros(N)
+        for j in chosen:
+            nw[j] = gross / len(chosen)
+        cap -= cap * np.abs(nw - w).sum() * (FEE_RT / 2); w = nw
+        cap = max(cap * (1 + float(np.dot(w, rets[i + 1]))), 10.0)
+        tl.append(panel.index[i]); cl.append(cap)
+    return _norm(_daily_equity(tl, cl, idx))
+
+
+def year_pnl(eq):
+    return {int(y): (g.iloc[-1] / g.iloc[0] - 1) * 100 for y, g in _norm(eq).groupby(eq.index.year)}
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    idx = pd.date_range("2021-01-01", "2026-05-26", freq="1D", tz="UTC")
+    d = dip_market_gated("BTC", market_n=0, return_equity=True)
+    cols = {
+        "DIP01(BTC)": _norm(_daily_equity(d["eq_ts"], d["eq_v"], idx)),
+        "TR01(bskt)": _norm(_tr_basket_daily(["BNB", "BTC", "DOGE", "SOL", "XRP"], idx)),
+        "ROT01": rot_daily(idx, regime_n=0),
+        "ROT02": rot_daily(idx, regime_n=100),
+    }
+    drets = pd.DataFrame({k: v.pct_change().fillna(0) for k, v in {
+        "DIP01(BTC)": cols["DIP01(BTC)"], "TR01(bskt)": cols["TR01(bskt)"], "ROT02": cols["ROT02"]
+    }.items()})
+    cols["PORTAF."] = (1 + drets.mean(axis=1)).cumprod()
+
+    names = list(cols)
+    py = {n: year_pnl(cols[n]) for n in names}
+    years = sorted({y for n in names for y in py[n]})
+
+    print("=" * 78)
+    print("  PnL% NETTO PER ANNO — confronto strategie (leva 3x, fee 0.10% RT)")
+    print("=" * 78)
+    print(f"  {'Anno':>6s}" + "".join(f"{n:>12s}" for n in names))
+    print("  " + "-" * 72)
+    for y in years:
+        print(f"  {y:>6d}" + "".join(f"{py[n].get(y, float('nan')):>+12.0f}" if y in py[n] else f"{'-':>12s}" for n in names))
+    print("  " + "-" * 72)
+    print(f"  {'TOT%':>6s}" + "".join(f"{(cols[n].iloc[-1]/cols[n].iloc[0]-1)*100:>+12.0f}" for n in names))
+    print(f"  {'DDfull':>6s}" + "".join(f"{_dd(cols[n].values):>12.0f}" for n in names))

scripts/analysis/honest_rotation.py

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+"""Strategia #3 candidata: ROTAZIONE cross-sectional momentum (multi-crypto).
+Una sola strategia che usa l'INTERO paniere: ad ogni ribilanciamento alloca il
+capitale agli asset con momentum migliore (long-only). Cattura la dispersione tra
+crypto (gli alt forti corrono molto piu' di BTC nei bull) senza shortare nulla.
+
+Onesto: i pesi a close[i] usano solo rendimenti passati; il rendimento del bar
+i->i+1 e' realizzato con quei pesi. Fee sul turnover. Allineamento per timestamp.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_lab import get_df, available_assets, FEE_RT  # noqa: E402
+
+LEV = 3.0
+GROSS = 0.45        # esposizione lorda = LEV*POS del singolo (0.15*3) per confronto equo
+
+
+def build_panel(assets: list[str], tf: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    """Matrice close allineata per timestamp (inner join)."""
+    closes = {}
+    for a in assets:
+        df = get_df(a, tf)
+        s = pd.Series(df["close"].values,
+                      index=pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True))
+        closes[a] = s[~s.index.duplicated()]
+    panel = pd.DataFrame(closes).dropna()
+    return panel
+
+
+def simulate_rotation(panel: pd.DataFrame, lookback=30, top_k=2,
+                      fee_rt=FEE_RT, gross=GROSS, abs_filter=True,
+                      oos_frac=0.0) -> dict:
+    """Ad ogni barra: ranking per rendimento passato `lookback`; pesi uguali sui
+    top_k con momentum>0 (se abs_filter); altrimenti cash. gross = esposizione tot.
+    oos_frac>0: parte a investire solo dall'ultimo frac del campione."""
+    P = panel.values
+    T, N = P.shape
+    rets = np.zeros_like(P)
+    rets[1:] = P[1:] / P[:-1] - 1
+    years = panel.index.year.values
+    start = max(lookback + 1, int(T * (1 - oos_frac)) if oos_frac else lookback + 1)
+    cap = peak = 1000.0
+    max_dd = 0.0
+    w = np.zeros(N)
+    yearly: dict[int, float] = {}
+    turn_total = 0.0
+    for i in range(start, T - 1):
+        mom = P[i] / P[i - lookback] - 1
+        order = np.argsort(mom)[::-1]
+        new_w = np.zeros(N)
+        chosen = [j for j in order if (mom[j] > 0 or not abs_filter)][:top_k]
+        if chosen:
+            for j in chosen:
+                new_w[j] = gross / len(chosen)
+        # fee sul turnover (one-way = fee_rt/2 su ogni variazione di peso)
+        turnover = np.abs(new_w - w).sum()
+        cap -= cap * turnover * (fee_rt / 2)
+        turn_total += turnover
+        w = new_w
+        port_ret = float(np.dot(w, rets[i + 1]))      # rendimento bar i->i+1
+        cap = max(cap * (1 + port_ret), 10.0)
+        peak = max(peak, cap); max_dd = max(max_dd, (peak - cap) / peak)
+        yearly[years[i]] = yearly.get(years[i], 0.0) + port_ret * 100
+    return {
+        "ret": (cap / 1000 - 1) * 100,
+        "dd": max_dd * 100,
+        "turnover": turn_total,
+        "yearly": yearly,
+        "pos_years": sum(1 for v in yearly.values() if v > 0),
+        "n_years": len(yearly),
+    }
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    assets = available_assets()
+    print(f"ROTATION cross-sectional momentum — fee {FEE_RT*100:.2f}% RT, gross {GROSS} | OOS 30%")
+    print(f"  Paniere: {assets}")
+    for tf in ["1d", "4h"]:
+        panel = build_panel(assets, tf)
+        print(f"\n  === {tf} === panel {panel.shape[0]} barre, {panel.index[0].date()} -> {panel.index[-1].date()}")
+        print(f"  {'config':<22s}{'FULL%':>9s}{'OOS%':>9s}{'DD%':>6s}{'Turn':>7s}{'AnniP':>8s}")
+        for lb in [20, 30, 60, 90]:
+            for k in [1, 2, 3]:
+                full = simulate_rotation(panel, lookback=lb, top_k=k)
+                oos = simulate_rotation(panel, lookback=lb, top_k=k, oos_frac=0.30)
+                anni = f"{full['pos_years']}/{full['n_years']}"
+                print(f"  lb{lb:<3d} top{k:<14d}{full['ret']:>+9.0f}{oos['ret']:>+9.0f}"
+                      f"{full['dd']:>6.0f}{full['turnover']:>7.0f}{anni:>8s}")

scripts/analysis/honest_trend.py

@@ -0,0 +1,109 @@
+"""Strategia #3 candidata: time-series momentum / trend (TSMOM).
+Posizione continua decisa a close[i] dai dati passati; fee SOLO sui cambi di
+posizione (poche operazioni su TF alto = fee non letali). Niente look-ahead:
+il rendimento del bar i->i+1 usa la direzione decisa a close[i].
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_lab import ema, get_df, available_assets, FEE_RT  # noqa: E402
+
+LEV = 3.0
+POS = 0.15
+
+
+def simulate_position(sig: np.ndarray, df: pd.DataFrame, fee_rt: float = FEE_RT,
+                      lev: float = LEV, pos: float = POS) -> dict:
+    """sig[i] in {-1,0,1} = direzione tenuta nel bar i->i+1, decisa a close[i].
+    Fee one-way = fee_rt/2 su ogni unita' di variazione posizione."""
+    c = df["close"].values
+    n = len(c)
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    cap = peak = 1000.0
+    max_dd = 0.0
+    cur = 0.0
+    flips = 0
+    bars_in = 0
+    yearly: dict[int, float] = {}
+    for i in range(n - 1):
+        s = sig[i]
+        if not np.isfinite(s):
+            s = 0.0
+        if s != cur:
+            cap -= cap * pos * (fee_rt / 2) * lev * abs(s - cur)
+            flips += abs(s - cur) > 0
+            cur = s
+        pr = (c[i + 1] - c[i]) / c[i]
+        bar_ret = pos * lev * pr * cur
+        cap = max(cap * (1 + bar_ret), 10.0)
+        peak = max(peak, cap); max_dd = max(max_dd, (peak - cap) / peak)
+        if cur != 0:
+            bars_in += 1
+        yr = ts.iloc[i].year
+        yearly[yr] = yearly.get(yr, 0.0) + bar_ret * 100
+    return {
+        "ret": (cap / 1000 - 1) * 100,
+        "dd": max_dd * 100,
+        "flips": flips,
+        "exposure": bars_in / n * 100,
+        "yearly": yearly,
+        "pos_years": sum(1 for v in yearly.values() if v > 0),
+        "n_years": len(yearly),
+    }
+
+
+def tsmom_signal(df, lookback=30, long_only=False):
+    """+1 se close>close[-lookback], -1 (o 0 se long_only) altrimenti."""
+    c = df["close"].values
+    sig = np.zeros(len(c))
+    for i in range(lookback, len(c)):
+        up = c[i] > c[i - lookback]
+        sig[i] = 1.0 if up else (0.0 if long_only else -1.0)
+    return sig
+
+
+def ema_dual_signal(df, fast=20, slow=100, long_only=False):
+    """+1 se EMA_fast>EMA_slow."""
+    c = df["close"].values
+    ef, es = ema(c, fast), ema(c, slow)
+    sig = np.where(ef > es, 1.0, 0.0 if long_only else -1.0)
+    sig[:slow] = 0.0
+    return sig
+
+
+def oos(sig, df, frac=0.30):
+    split = int(len(df) * (1 - frac))
+    s2 = sig.copy(); s2[:split] = 0.0
+    return simulate_position(s2, df)
+
+
+def show(label, df, sig):
+    full = simulate_position(sig, df)
+    o = oos(sig, df)
+    anni = f"{full['pos_years']}/{full['n_years']}"
+    print(f"  {label:<26s}{full['flips']:>6d}{full['ret']:>+9.0f}{o['ret']:>+9.0f}"
+          f"{full['dd']:>6.0f}{full['exposure']:>6.0f}{anni:>8s}")
+    return full, o
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    assets = available_assets()
+    print(f"TSMOM / trend — fee {FEE_RT*100:.2f}% RT, leva3x pos15% | OOS30%")
+    for tf in ["1d", "4h"]:
+        print(f"\n  ###### TF {tf} ######")
+        for a in assets:
+            df = get_df(a, tf)
+            print(f"\n  === {a} {tf} ===  {'Flip':>5s}{'FULL%':>8s}{'OOS%':>8s}{'DD%':>6s}{'Exp%':>6s}{'AnniP':>8s}")
+            show("TSMOM lb30 long/short", df, tsmom_signal(df, 30))
+            show("TSMOM lb30 long-only", df, tsmom_signal(df, 30, long_only=True))
+            show("TSMOM lb90 long/short", df, tsmom_signal(df, 90))
+            show("EMA 20/100 long/short", df, ema_dual_signal(df, 20, 100))
+            show("EMA 20/100 long-only", df, ema_dual_signal(df, 20, 100, long_only=True))

scripts/analysis/honest_yearly.py

@@ -0,0 +1,188 @@
+"""Report PER ANNO (Trade, Acc%, DD%, PnL%) delle 3 strategie oneste.
+
+Acc: DIP01/TR01 = win-rate dei trade chiusi (episodi); ROT01 = % giorni positivi.
+DD : drawdown massimo dell'equity DENTRO l'anno solare.
+PnL: variazione % dell'equity nell'anno (composta).
+Tutto NETTO (fee 0.10% RT, leva 3x, pos 15%). Replica gli engine di honest_*.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_lab import atr, ema, get_df, available_assets, FEE_RT
+from scripts.analysis.honest_final import dip_entries
+from scripts.analysis.honest_rotation import build_panel
+
+LEV, POS = 3.0, 0.15
+
+
+def _yearly_dd(years: np.ndarray, equity: np.ndarray) -> dict[int, float]:
+    """DD massimo intra-anno da una serie di equity etichettata per anno."""
+    out: dict[int, float] = {}
+    for y in np.unique(years):
+        eq = equity[years == y]
+        peak = eq[0]; dd = 0.0
+        for v in eq:
+            peak = max(peak, v)
+            dd = max(dd, (peak - v) / peak if peak > 0 else 0.0)
+        out[int(y)] = dd * 100
+    return out
+
+
+def _print(title, header, rows):
+    print("\n" + "=" * 78)
+    print(f"  {title}")
+    print("=" * 78)
+    print("  " + header)
+    print("  " + "-" * 74)
+    for r in rows:
+        print("  " + r)
+
+
+# --------------------------- DIP01 (trade-based) ---------------------------
+def dip_yearly(asset, tf="1h"):
+    df = get_df(asset, tf)
+    ents = dip_entries(df)
+    h, l, c = df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["close"].values
+    n = len(c); ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    fee = FEE_RT * LEV
+    cap = 1000.0
+    last_exit = -1
+    eq_y, eq_v = [], []
+    yt: dict[int, list] = {}     # year -> [trades, wins, pnl_start_cap, pnl_end_cap]
+    for e in ents:
+        i, d = e["i"], e["d"]
+        if i <= last_exit or i + 1 >= n:
+            continue
+        entry = c[i]; tp, sl, mb = e["tp"], e["sl"], e["max_bars"]
+        exit_p = c[min(i + mb, n - 1)]; j = min(i + mb, n - 1)
+        for k in range(1, mb + 1):
+            j = i + k
+            if j >= n:
+                j = n - 1; exit_p = c[j]; break
+            if (d == 1 and l[j] <= sl) or (d == -1 and h[j] >= sl):
+                exit_p = sl; break
+            if (d == 1 and h[j] >= tp) or (d == -1 and l[j] <= tp):
+                exit_p = tp; break
+            if k == mb:
+                exit_p = c[j]
+        ret = (exit_p - entry) / entry * d * LEV - fee
+        cap = max(cap + cap * POS * ret, 10.0)
+        last_exit = j
+        y = ts.iloc[i].year
+        rec = yt.setdefault(y, [0, 0, None, None])
+        rec[0] += 1; rec[1] += ret > 0
+        eq_y.append(y); eq_v.append(cap)
+    dd = _yearly_dd(np.array(eq_y), np.array(eq_v))
+    # PnL% anno: da equity prima/dopo
+    rows = []
+    prev = 1000.0
+    yrs = sorted(yt)
+    cum = {}
+    cprev = 1000.0
+    # ricostruisci equity di fine anno
+    end_cap = {}
+    for y, v in zip(eq_y, eq_v):
+        end_cap[y] = v
+    for y in yrs:
+        t, w = yt[y][0], yt[y][1]
+        ec = end_cap[y]
+        pnl = (ec / cprev - 1) * 100
+        cprev = ec
+        rows.append(f"{y:>6d}{t:>8d}{(w/t*100 if t else 0):>8.1f}{dd.get(y,0):>8.1f}{pnl:>+10.1f}")
+    return rows
+
+
+# --------------------------- TR01 (position episodes) ---------------------------
+def tr_yearly(asset, tf="4h", fast=20, slow=100):
+    df = get_df(asset, tf)
+    c = df["close"].values; n = len(c)
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    ef, es = ema(c, fast), ema(c, slow)
+    sig = np.where(ef > es, 1.0, 0.0); sig[:slow] = 0.0
+    cap = 1000.0; cur = 0.0
+    fee = FEE_RT / 2 * LEV
+    ep_start_cap = None; ep_year = None
+    yt: dict[int, list] = {}
+    eq_y, eq_v = [], []
+    for i in range(n - 1):
+        s = sig[i]
+        if s != cur:
+            cap -= cap * POS * fee * abs(s - cur)
+            if s == 1.0:                         # apertura long
+                ep_start_cap = cap; ep_year = ts.iloc[i].year
+            elif cur == 1.0 and ep_start_cap is not None:   # chiusura long
+                rec = yt.setdefault(ep_year, [0, 0])
+                rec[0] += 1; rec[1] += cap > ep_start_cap
+                ep_start_cap = None
+            cur = s
+        pr = (c[i + 1] - c[i]) / c[i]
+        cap = max(cap * (1 + POS * LEV * pr * cur), 10.0)
+        eq_y.append(ts.iloc[i].year); eq_v.append(cap)
+    if cur == 1.0 and ep_start_cap is not None:
+        rec = yt.setdefault(ep_year, [0, 0]); rec[0] += 1; rec[1] += cap > ep_start_cap
+    dd = _yearly_dd(np.array(eq_y), np.array(eq_v))
+    end_cap = {}
+    for y, v in zip(eq_y, eq_v):
+        end_cap[y] = v
+    rows = []; cprev = 1000.0
+    for y in sorted(end_cap):
+        t, w = yt.get(y, [0, 0])
+        pnl = (end_cap[y] / cprev - 1) * 100; cprev = end_cap[y]
+        rows.append(f"{y:>6d}{t:>8d}{(w/t*100 if t else 0):>8.1f}{dd.get(y,0):>8.1f}{pnl:>+10.1f}")
+    return rows
+
+
+# --------------------------- ROT01 (daily portfolio) ---------------------------
+def rot_yearly(lookback=60, top_k=2, gross=0.45):
+    panel = build_panel(available_assets(), "1d")
+    P = panel.values; T, N = P.shape
+    rets = np.zeros_like(P); rets[1:] = P[1:] / P[:-1] - 1
+    years = panel.index.year.values
+    cap = 1000.0; w = np.zeros(N)
+    yt: dict[int, list] = {}     # year -> [rebal, pos_days, days]
+    eq_y, eq_v = [], []
+    for i in range(lookback + 1, T - 1):
+        mom = P[i] / P[i - lookback] - 1
+        order = np.argsort(mom)[::-1]
+        chosen = [j for j in order if mom[j] > 0][:top_k]
+        new_w = np.zeros(N)
+        for j in chosen:
+            new_w[j] = gross / len(chosen)
+        turnover = np.abs(new_w - w).sum()
+        if turnover > 1e-9:
+            cap -= cap * turnover * (FEE_RT / 2)
+        w = new_w
+        pr = float(np.dot(w, rets[i + 1]))
+        cap = max(cap * (1 + pr), 10.0)
+        y = int(years[i])
+        rec = yt.setdefault(y, [0, 0, 0])
+        rec[0] += turnover > 1e-9; rec[1] += pr > 0; rec[2] += 1
+        eq_y.append(y); eq_v.append(cap)
+    dd = _yearly_dd(np.array(eq_y), np.array(eq_v))
+    end_cap = {}
+    for y, v in zip(eq_y, eq_v):
+        end_cap[y] = v
+    rows = []; cprev = 1000.0
+    for y in sorted(end_cap):
+        reb, pos, days = yt[y]
+        pnl = (end_cap[y] / cprev - 1) * 100; cprev = end_cap[y]
+        rows.append(f"{y:>6d}{reb:>8d}{(pos/days*100 if days else 0):>8.1f}{dd.get(y,0):>8.1f}{pnl:>+10.1f}")
+    return rows
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    H = f"{'Anno':>6s}{'Trade':>8s}{'Acc%':>8s}{'DD%':>8s}{'PnL%':>10s}"
+    for a in ["BTC", "ETH", "SOL"]:
+        _print(f"DIP01 — {a} 1h  (Acc = win-rate trade)", H, dip_yearly(a))
+    for a in ["BNB", "BTC", "DOGE", "SOL", "XRP"]:
+        _print(f"TR01 — {a} 4h  (Trade = episodi long, Acc = win-rate episodi)", H, tr_yearly(a))
+    _print("ROT01 — paniere 8 crypto 1d  (Trade = ribilanciamenti, Acc = % giorni positivi)",
+           H, rot_yearly())

scripts/analysis/honest_yearly2.py

@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+"""Tabella per-anno (PnL% e DD% intra-anno) delle versioni MIGLIORATE:
+ROT02 (dual-momentum), le 3 sleeve e il PORTAFOGLIO combinato.
+Tutto NETTO. Riusa gli engine di honest_improve / honest_improve2.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_improve2 import (  # noqa: E402
+    dip_market_gated, _daily_equity, _norm, _tr_basket_daily, _rot_daily_equity,
+)
+
+
+def _year_dd(eq: pd.Series) -> dict[int, float]:
+    out = {}
+    for y, g in eq.groupby(eq.index.year):
+        peak = g.iloc[0]; dd = 0.0
+        for v in g:
+            peak = max(peak, v); dd = max(dd, (peak - v) / peak if peak > 0 else 0.0)
+        out[int(y)] = dd * 100
+    return out
+
+
+def _year_pnl(eq: pd.Series) -> dict[int, float]:
+    out = {}
+    for y, g in eq.groupby(eq.index.year):
+        out[int(y)] = (g.iloc[-1] / g.iloc[0] - 1) * 100
+    return out
+
+
+def table(name, eq):
+    eq = _norm(eq)
+    dd = _year_dd(eq); pnl = _year_pnl(eq)
+    print(f"\n  {name}")
+    print(f"  {'Anno':>6s}{'PnL%':>9s}{'DD%':>7s}")
+    print("  " + "-" * 22)
+    for y in sorted(pnl):
+        print(f"  {y:>6d}{pnl[y]:>+9.0f}{dd[y]:>7.0f}")
+    tot = (eq.iloc[-1] / eq.iloc[0] - 1) * 100
+    print(f"  {'TOT':>6s}{tot:>+9.0f}{_year_dd(eq) and max(_year_dd(eq).values()):>7.0f}(max anno)")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    print("=" * 60)
+    print("  RISULTATI PER ANNO — versioni migliorate (NETTO)")
+    print("=" * 60)
+
+    # ROT02 dal 2020 (dati paniere)
+    idx_rot = pd.date_range("2020-09-01", "2026-05-26", freq="1D", tz="UTC")
+    eq_rot = _rot_daily_equity(idx_rot)
+    table("ROT02 — dual-momentum rotation (1d)", eq_rot)
+
+    # sleeve + portafoglio dal 2021
+    idx = pd.date_range("2021-01-01", "2026-05-26", freq="1D", tz="UTC")
+    d = dip_market_gated("BTC", market_n=0, return_equity=True)
+    eq_dip = _norm(_daily_equity(d["eq_ts"], d["eq_v"], idx))
+    eq_tr = _norm(_tr_basket_daily(["BNB", "BTC", "DOGE", "SOL", "XRP"], idx))
+    eq_r2 = _norm(_rot_daily_equity(idx))
+    table("Sleeve DIP01 — BTC (1h)", eq_dip)
+    table("Sleeve TR01 — basket (4h)", eq_tr)
+    table("Sleeve ROT02 (1d)", eq_r2)
+
+    drets = pd.DataFrame({"DIP": eq_dip.pct_change().fillna(0),
+                          "TR": eq_tr.pct_change().fillna(0),
+                          "ROT": eq_r2.pct_change().fillna(0)})
+    combo = (1 + drets.mean(axis=1)).cumprod()
+    table("PORTAFOGLIO equal-weight (daily rebal)", combo)

scripts/analysis/intrabar_test.py

@@ -0,0 +1,188 @@
+"""Test ingresso intra-barra: rottura banda squeeze rilevata sul 5m vs close 15m.
+
+Domanda: entrando sul 5m appena il prezzo rompe la banda di Bollinger dello
+squeeze (bande dall'ultima barra 15m CHIUSA -> nessun look-ahead), si recupera
+parte del movimento che l'ingresso al close della barra 15m si perde?
+
+Confronto a parita' di EXIT (stesso wall-clock): l'unica differenza e' il prezzo
+d'ingresso (5m anticipato vs close 15m ritardato). La differenza di rendimento e'
+esattamente lo "scatto" del breakout catturato in piu'.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+from src.live.signal_engine import keltner_ratio
+
+OOS_START = "2023-11-20"
+BB_W = 14
+SQ_THR = 0.8
+MIN_DUR = 5
+LEV = 3.0
+POS = 0.15
+M15 = 15 * 60 * 1000
+M5 = 5 * 60 * 1000
+
+
+def build_15m_levels(df15: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    c = df15["close"].values
+    h = df15["high"].values
+    l = df15["low"].values
+    n = len(c)
+    kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, BB_W)
+    ma = np.full(n, np.nan)
+    sd = np.full(n, np.nan)
+    for t in range(BB_W, n):
+        w = c[t - BB_W + 1 : t + 1]
+        ma[t] = w.mean()
+        sd[t] = w.std()
+    upper = ma + 2 * sd
+    lower = ma - 2 * sd
+
+    # durata squeeze consecutiva e maturita'
+    dur = np.zeros(n, dtype=int)
+    run = 0
+    for t in range(n):
+        if not np.isnan(kcr[t]) and kcr[t] < SQ_THR:
+            run += 1
+        else:
+            run = 0
+        dur[t] = run
+    mature = dur >= MIN_DUR
+
+    return pd.DataFrame({
+        "ts15": df15["timestamp"].values,
+        "close_time15": df15["timestamp"].values + M15,
+        "close15": c,
+        "upper": upper,
+        "lower": lower,
+        "mature": mature,
+    })
+
+
+def run_asset(asset: str, hold_min: int, fee_rt: float) -> dict:
+    df5 = load_data(asset, "5m").reset_index(drop=True)
+    df15 = load_data(asset, "15m").reset_index(drop=True)
+    lvl = build_15m_levels(df15)
+
+    d5 = pd.DataFrame({
+        "ts5": df5["timestamp"].values,
+        "close_time5": df5["timestamp"].values + M5,
+        "close5": df5["close"].values,
+    })
+
+    # banda armata: ultima barra 15m CHIUSA prima della chiusura del bar 5m
+    armed = pd.merge_asof(
+        d5.sort_values("close_time5"),
+        lvl[["close_time15", "upper", "lower", "mature"]].sort_values("close_time15"),
+        left_on="close_time5", right_on="close_time15", direction="backward",
+    )
+    # barra 15m CONTENENTE il bar 5m (per l'ingresso ritardato a close 15m)
+    cont = pd.merge_asof(
+        d5.sort_values("ts5"),
+        lvl[["ts15", "close15", "close_time15"]].rename(
+            columns={"close_time15": "cont_close_time"}).sort_values("ts15"),
+        left_on="ts5", right_on="ts15", direction="backward",
+    )
+
+    m = armed.copy()
+    m["cont_close"] = cont["close15"].values
+    m["cont_close_time"] = cont["cont_close_time"].values
+
+    oos_ms = int(pd.Timestamp(OOS_START, tz="UTC").timestamp() * 1000)
+    close5 = m["close5"].values
+    ct5 = m["close_time5"].values
+    upper = m["upper"].values
+    lower = m["lower"].values
+    mature = m["mature"].values
+    cont_close = m["cont_close"].values
+    cont_ct = m["cont_close_time"].values
+    n = len(m)
+
+    cap_e = cap_l = 1000.0   # equity ingresso early(5m) e late(15m)
+    peak_e = peak_l = 1000.0
+    dd_e = dd_l = 0.0
+    trades = win_e = win_l = 0
+    thrust_sum = 0.0
+    fee = fee_rt * LEV
+    busy_until = -1
+
+    for i in range(n):
+        if ct5[i] < oos_ms or ct5[i] <= busy_until:
+            continue
+        if not mature[i] or np.isnan(upper[i]):
+            continue
+        if close5[i] > upper[i]:
+            d = 1
+        elif close5[i] < lower[i]:
+            d = -1
+        else:
+            continue
+
+        entry_e = close5[i]
+        entry_l = cont_close[i]
+        exit_time = cont_ct[i] + hold_min * 60 * 1000
+        # primo close 5m al/oltre exit_time
+        j = np.searchsorted(ct5, exit_time, side="left")
+        if j >= n:
+            break
+        exit_p = close5[j]
+
+        ret_e = ((exit_p - entry_e) / entry_e) * d * LEV - fee
+        ret_l = ((exit_p - entry_l) / entry_l) * d * LEV - fee
+        thrust_sum += (entry_l - entry_e) / entry_e * d * 100  # scatto % (no leva)
+
+        cb_e, cb_l = cap_e, cap_l
+        cap_e = max(cb_e + cb_e * POS * ret_e, 10.0)
+        cap_l = max(cb_l + cb_l * POS * ret_l, 10.0)
+        peak_e = max(peak_e, cap_e); dd_e = max(dd_e, (peak_e - cap_e) / peak_e)
+        peak_l = max(peak_l, cap_l); dd_l = max(dd_l, (peak_l - cap_l) / peak_l)
+        trades += 1
+        win_e += ret_e > 0
+        win_l += ret_l > 0
+        busy_until = exit_time
+
+    return {
+        "trades": trades,
+        "avg_thrust": thrust_sum / trades if trades else 0.0,
+        "early_win": win_e / trades * 100 if trades else 0.0,
+        "late_win": win_l / trades * 100 if trades else 0.0,
+        "early_ret": (cap_e / 1000 - 1) * 100,
+        "late_ret": (cap_l / 1000 - 1) * 100,
+        "early_dd": dd_e * 100,
+        "late_dd": dd_l * 100,
+    }
+
+
+def main():
+    for fee_rt in (0.002, 0.001):
+        print("=" * 104)
+        print(f"  INGRESSO INTRA-BARRA 5m vs CLOSE 15m — OOS da {OOS_START} | leva={LEV:.0f}x "
+              f"| fee={fee_rt*100:.2f}% RT")
+        print("  EARLY = entra al close 5m che rompe la banda | LATE = entra al close della barra 15m | stesso exit")
+        print("=" * 104)
+        print(f"  {'Asset':>5s}{'Hold':>6s}{'Trd':>6s}{'Scatto%':>9s}"
+              f"{'EARLY win%':>12s}{'EARLY ret%':>12s}{'LATE win%':>11s}{'LATE ret%':>11s}{'Δret%':>9s}")
+        print("  " + "-" * 100)
+        for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+            for hold_min in (15, 30, 45):
+                r = run_asset(asset, hold_min, fee_rt)
+                print(f"  {asset:>5s}{hold_min:>5d}m{r['trades']:>6d}{r['avg_thrust']:>+9.3f}"
+                      f"{r['early_win']:>12.1f}{r['early_ret']:>+12.1f}"
+                      f"{r['late_win']:>11.1f}{r['late_ret']:>+11.1f}"
+                      f"{r['early_ret']-r['late_ret']:>+9.1f}")
+            print("  " + "-" * 100)
+        print("  Scatto% = movimento medio (no leva) catturato tra rottura 5m e close 15m, nella direzione.")
+        print("  Δret% = vantaggio dell'ingresso anticipato. Se ~0 o negativo, il 5m non aiuta.\n")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

scripts/analysis/oos_validation.py

@@ -0,0 +1,259 @@
+"""Validazione out-of-sample fee-aware di tutte le strategie live.
+
+Per ognuna delle 6 config in strategies.yml:
+  - split temporale held-out (train = primi (1-test_frac), test = ultimo test_frac)
+  - ML01 (SignalEngine): allena sul train, predice sul test (come il worker live)
+  - rule-based: i segnali sono causali, si valutano quelli nella finestra test
+  - simulazione fedele al worker live: una posizione per volta (non-overlap),
+    uscita a `hold` barre o stop a -2%, fee round-trip e leva inclusi
+
+Stampa, per ogni config: numero trade nel test, win% lordo e netto, return netto,
+costo commissioni, e confronto lordo-vs-netto per isolare l'impatto delle fee.
+Usa i parquet locali (data/raw), nessuna chiamata di rete.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+import yaml
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+from src.live.strategy_loader import load_strategy
+from src.live.signal_engine import SignalEngine, keltner_ratio, build_features
+
+TEST_FRAC = 0.30
+STOP_PCT = -0.02
+
+
+def simulate(entries: list[tuple[int, int]], close: np.ndarray, hold: int,
+             fee_rt: float, lev: float, pos: float,
+             initial: float = 1000.0, entry_offset: int = 0) -> dict:
+    """FSM fedele al worker live: non-overlap, hold N barre o stop -2%.
+
+    entry_offset: 0 = ingresso a close[i] (worker live); 1 = close[i-1]
+    (convenzione del backtest storico, che conosce la direzione di barra i).
+    """
+    n = len(close)
+    capital = peak = initial
+    max_dd = 0.0
+    fees_eur = gross_eur = 0.0
+    wins_gross = wins_net = n_trades = 0
+    last_exit = -1
+
+    for i, d in entries:
+        e = i - entry_offset
+        if e <= last_exit or e < 0 or e + 1 >= n:
+            continue
+        entry = close[e]
+        exit_price = close[min(e + hold, n - 1)]
+        for k in range(1, hold + 1):
+            j = e + k
+            if j >= n:
+                exit_price = close[n - 1]
+                break
+            if k < hold and (close[j] - entry) / entry * d <= STOP_PCT:
+                exit_price = close[j]
+                break
+            if k == hold:
+                exit_price = close[j]
+
+        actual = (exit_price - entry) / entry * d   # movimento prezzo * direzione (no leva)
+        gross = actual * lev
+        fee = fee_rt * lev
+        net = gross - fee
+
+        cap_before = capital
+        capital = max(cap_before + cap_before * pos * net, 10.0)
+        gross_eur += cap_before * pos * gross
+        fees_eur += cap_before * pos * fee
+        peak = max(peak, capital)
+        max_dd = max(max_dd, (peak - capital) / peak)
+
+        n_trades += 1
+        wins_gross += actual > 0
+        wins_net += net > 0
+        last_exit = e + hold
+
+    return {
+        "trades": n_trades,
+        "win_gross": wins_gross / n_trades * 100 if n_trades else 0.0,
+        "win_net": wins_net / n_trades * 100 if n_trades else 0.0,
+        "net_return_pct": (capital / initial - 1) * 100,
+        "net_eur": capital - initial,
+        "gross_eur": gross_eur,
+        "fees_eur": fees_eur,
+        "final_capital": capital,
+        "max_dd": max_dd * 100,
+    }
+
+
+def rule_entries(name: str, df: pd.DataFrame, params: dict, split: int) -> list[tuple[int, int]]:
+    strat = load_strategy(name)
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    sigs = strat.generate_signals(df, ts, **params)
+    return [(s.idx, s.direction) for s in sigs if s.idx >= split]
+
+
+def ml_entries(df: pd.DataFrame, params: dict, split: int, hold: int) -> tuple[list[tuple[int, int]], dict]:
+    bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
+    sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
+    ml_thr = params.get("ml_threshold", 0.70)
+
+    eng = SignalEngine(bb_w=bb_w, sq_thr=sq_thr, ml_thr=ml_thr)
+    train_res = eng.train(df.iloc[:split].reset_index(drop=True), lookahead=hold)
+    if not eng.trained:
+        return [], train_res
+
+    close = df["close"].values
+    high = df["high"].values
+    low = df["low"].values
+    volume = df["volume"].values
+    n = len(df)
+    kcr = keltner_ratio(close, high, low, bb_w)
+    up_idx = list(eng.model.classes_).index(1)
+
+    entries: list[tuple[int, int]] = []
+    in_sq = False
+    sq_start = 0
+    for i in range(bb_w + 1, n):
+        if np.isnan(kcr[i]):
+            continue
+        is_sq = kcr[i] < sq_thr
+        if is_sq and not in_sq:
+            in_sq, sq_start = True, i
+        elif not is_sq and in_sq:
+            in_sq = False
+            dur = i - sq_start
+            if dur < eng.min_squeeze_bars or i < split or i + hold >= n:
+                continue
+            avg_vol = float(np.mean(volume[sq_start:i]))
+            feats = build_features(df, i, dur, avg_vol, kcr[i])
+            if feats is None:
+                continue
+            p_up = eng.model.predict_proba(eng.scaler.transform(feats.reshape(1, -1)))[0][up_idx]
+            if p_up >= ml_thr:
+                entries.append((i, 1))
+            elif p_up <= (1 - ml_thr):
+                entries.append((i, -1))
+    return entries, train_res
+
+
+def squeeze_releases(df: pd.DataFrame, bb_w: int, sq_thr: float, min_dur: int,
+                     split: int) -> list[int]:
+    """Indici delle barre di rilascio squeeze nella finestra test (idx >= split)."""
+    close = df["close"].values
+    high = df["high"].values
+    low = df["low"].values
+    kcr = keltner_ratio(close, high, low, bb_w)
+    rels: list[int] = []
+    in_sq = False
+    sq_start = 0
+    for i in range(bb_w + 1, len(df)):
+        if np.isnan(kcr[i]):
+            continue
+        is_sq = kcr[i] < sq_thr
+        if is_sq and not in_sq:
+            in_sq, sq_start = True, i
+        elif not is_sq and in_sq:
+            in_sq = False
+            if i - sq_start >= min_dur and i >= split:
+                rels.append(i)
+    return rels
+
+
+def honest_entries(df: pd.DataFrame, rels: list[int], rule: str, mom: int = 4) -> list[tuple[int, int]]:
+    """Direzione da regole honest (solo dati <= i-1) o baseline breakout.
+
+    breakout: sign(close[i]-close[i-1])  -> conoscibile solo a close[i] (= live attuale)
+    premom:   sign(close[i-1]-close[i-1-mom]) -> trend pre-release, 100% honest
+    fade:     -sign(close[i]-close[i-1]) -> mean-reversion del breakout
+    """
+    close = df["close"].values
+    out: list[tuple[int, int]] = []
+    for i in rels:
+        if i - 1 - mom < 0:
+            continue
+        if rule == "premom":
+            d = np.sign(close[i - 1] - close[i - 1 - mom])
+        elif rule == "fade":
+            d = -np.sign(close[i] - close[i - 1])
+        else:  # breakout
+            d = np.sign(close[i] - close[i - 1])
+        if d != 0:
+            out.append((i, int(d)))
+    return out
+
+
+def main():
+    cfg = yaml.safe_load((PROJECT_ROOT / "strategies.yml").read_text())
+    defaults = cfg.get("defaults", {})
+    hold = defaults.get("hold_bars", 3)
+    lev = defaults.get("leverage", 3)
+    fee_rt = 0.002
+
+    fee_grid = [0.0, 0.0005, 0.001, 0.0015, 0.002]
+
+    # ---- (b) SENSIBILITA' ALLE FEE (config live, ingresso close[i]) ----
+    print("=" * 104)
+    print(f"  (b) SENSIBILITA' ALLE FEE — config live, ingresso close[i] | OOS {int(TEST_FRAC*100)}% | hold={hold} leva={lev}x")
+    print("=" * 104)
+    print(f"  {'Strategia':<26s}{'Asset':>5s}{'Trd':>5s}{'Lordo€':>9s}"
+          + "".join(f"{f'{f*100:.2f}%':>10s}" for f in fee_grid))
+    print("  " + "-" * 100)
+
+    for entry in cfg.get("strategies", []):
+        if not entry.get("enabled", True):
+            continue
+        name, asset, tf = entry["name"], entry["asset"], entry["tf"]
+        pos = entry.get("position_size", defaults.get("position_size", 0.15))
+        params = dict(entry.get("params", {}))
+        params["asset"], params["tf"] = asset, tf
+
+        df = load_data(asset, tf).reset_index(drop=True)
+        split = int(len(df) * (1 - TEST_FRAC))
+        close = df["close"].values
+        entries = (ml_entries(df, params, split, hold)[0] if name.startswith("ML01")
+                   else rule_entries(name, df, params, split))
+
+        gross = simulate(entries, close, hold, 0.0, lev, pos)["net_eur"]
+        rets = [simulate(entries, close, hold, f, lev, pos)["net_return_pct"] for f in fee_grid]
+        print(f"  {name:<26s}{asset:>5s}{len(entries):>5d}{gross:>+9.0f}"
+              + "".join(f"{r:>+10.1f}" for r in rets))
+
+    print("  " + "-" * 100)
+    print("  Colonne = Ret% netto al variare della fee RT. 0.00% isola l'edge puro (senza costi).")
+    print("  Deribit perp reale: taker ~0.10% RT, maker ~0%. Il modello live usa 0.20% RT.")
+
+    # ---- (a) HONEST-ENTRY squeeze: direzione decisa <= i-1, ingresso close[i] ----
+    print("\n" + "=" * 104)
+    print(f"  (a) HONEST-ENTRY squeeze (bb14 sq0.8 dur>=5) — ingresso close[i], fee={fee_rt*100:.1f}% RT")
+    print("=" * 104)
+    print(f"  {'Asset':>5s}{'Regola direzione':>20s}{'Trd':>6s}{'Win%g':>8s}{'Win%n':>8s}{'Netto€':>9s}{'Ret%':>9s}{'DD%':>7s}")
+    print("  " + "-" * 100)
+
+    rules = [("breakout (=live)", "breakout"), ("pre-trend mom4", "premom"),
+             ("pre-trend mom8", "premom8"), ("fade breakout", "fade")]
+    for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+        df = load_data(asset, "15m").reset_index(drop=True)
+        split = int(len(df) * (1 - TEST_FRAC))
+        close = df["close"].values
+        rels = squeeze_releases(df, 14, 0.8, 5, split)
+        for label, rule in rules:
+            mom = 8 if rule == "premom8" else 4
+            ents = honest_entries(df, rels, "premom" if rule == "premom8" else rule, mom=mom)
+            r = simulate(ents, close, hold, fee_rt, lev, 0.15)
+            print(f"  {asset:>5s}{label:>20s}{r['trades']:>6d}{r['win_gross']:>8.1f}"
+                  f"{r['win_net']:>8.1f}{r['net_eur']:>+9.0f}{r['net_return_pct']:>+9.1f}{r['max_dd']:>7.1f}")
+        print("  " + "-" * 100)
+    print("  pre-trend = direzione dal trend PRIMA del rilascio (solo dati <= i-1): 100% honest.")
+    print("  Se nessuna regola honest batte ~breakeven, non esiste edge direzionale tradeable.")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

scripts/analysis/strategy_research.py

@@ -0,0 +1,258 @@
+"""Ricerca strategie fee-aware, OOS, oltre la famiglia squeeze.
+
+Lezioni apprese (squeeze breakout = nessun edge):
+  - le FEE sono vincolo di prim'ordine -> default fee realistica Deribit 0.10% RT
+    (taker 0.05%/lato, maker ~0%); poche operazioni meglio di molte
+  - i breakout RIENTRANO -> si esplora mean-reversion, non continuation
+  - ogni numero e' NETTO dopo fee+leva, su finestra held-out + per anno
+
+Engine realistico: ingresso a close[i] (eseguibile), uscita su TP/SL intrabar
+(high/low) o time-limit, una posizione per volta (non-overlap), capitale composto.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+
+FEE_RT = 0.001          # Deribit perp realistico: taker 0.05%/lato
+LEV = 3.0
+POS = 0.15
+OOS_FRAC = 0.30
+BARS_PER_YEAR = {"15m": 35040, "1h": 8760, "4h": 2190, "1d": 365}
+
+
+# ----------------------------- dati -----------------------------
+def get_df(asset: str, tf: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    """tf nativo (15m,1h) o resample da 1h (4h,1d)."""
+    if tf in ("15m", "1h"):
+        return load_data(asset, tf).reset_index(drop=True)
+    base = load_data(asset, "1h").copy()
+    base["dt"] = pd.to_datetime(base["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    base = base.set_index("dt")
+    rule = {"4h": "4h", "1d": "1D"}[tf]
+    agg = base.resample(rule).agg(
+        {"open": "first", "high": "max", "low": "min", "close": "last", "volume": "sum"}
+    ).dropna()
+    agg["timestamp"] = agg.index.asi8 // 10**6
+    return agg.reset_index(drop=True)
+
+
+# --------------------------- indicatori ---------------------------
+def atr(df: pd.DataFrame, n: int = 14) -> np.ndarray:
+    h, l, c = df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["close"].values
+    pc = np.roll(c, 1); pc[0] = c[0]
+    tr = np.maximum(h - l, np.maximum(np.abs(h - pc), np.abs(l - pc)))
+    return pd.Series(tr).rolling(n).mean().values
+
+
+def rsi(close: np.ndarray, n: int = 14) -> np.ndarray:
+    d = np.diff(close, prepend=close[0])
+    up = pd.Series(np.where(d > 0, d, 0.0)).ewm(alpha=1/n, adjust=False).mean()
+    dn = pd.Series(np.where(d < 0, -d, 0.0)).ewm(alpha=1/n, adjust=False).mean()
+    rs = up / dn.replace(0, np.nan)
+    return (100 - 100 / (1 + rs)).values
+
+
+# --------------------------- engine ---------------------------
+def simulate(entries: list[dict], df: pd.DataFrame, fee_rt: float = FEE_RT,
+             lev: float = LEV, pos: float = POS) -> dict:
+    """entries: dict con i(idx), d(+1/-1), tp(prezzo), sl(prezzo), max_bars."""
+    h, l, c = df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["close"].values
+    n = len(c)
+    cap = peak = 1000.0
+    max_dd = 0.0
+    fee = fee_rt * lev
+    trades = wins = 0
+    last_exit = -1
+    bars_in = 0
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    yearly: dict[int, float] = {}
+
+    for e in entries:
+        i, d = e["i"], e["d"]
+        if i <= last_exit or i + 1 >= n:
+            continue
+        entry = c[i]
+        tp, sl, mb = e["tp"], e["sl"], e["max_bars"]
+        exit_p = c[min(i + mb, n - 1)]
+        for k in range(1, mb + 1):
+            j = i + k
+            if j >= n:
+                exit_p = c[n - 1]; break
+            hit_sl = (d == 1 and l[j] <= sl) or (d == -1 and h[j] >= sl)
+            hit_tp = (d == 1 and h[j] >= tp) or (d == -1 and l[j] <= tp)
+            if hit_sl:                      # conservativo: SL prima del TP nello stesso bar
+                exit_p = sl; break
+            if hit_tp:
+                exit_p = tp; break
+            if k == mb:
+                exit_p = c[j]
+        ret = (exit_p - entry) / entry * d * lev - fee
+        cb = cap
+        cap = max(cb + cb * pos * ret, 10.0)
+        peak = max(peak, cap); max_dd = max(max_dd, (peak - cap) / peak)
+        trades += 1; wins += ret > 0; bars_in += min(mb, j - i)
+        last_exit = j
+        yearly[ts.iloc[i].year] = yearly.get(ts.iloc[i].year, 0.0) + ret * 100
+    return {
+        "trades": trades,
+        "win": wins / trades * 100 if trades else 0.0,
+        "ret": (cap / 1000 - 1) * 100,
+        "dd": max_dd * 100,
+        "yearly": yearly,
+        "exposure": bars_in / n * 100,
+    }
+
+
+# --------------------------- strategie ---------------------------
+def bollinger_fade(df, n=20, k=2.0, sl_atr=2.0, max_bars=24):
+    """Mean-reversion: fada il close oltre la banda, TP alla media, SL = k_atr*ATR."""
+    c = df["close"].values
+    ma = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).mean().values
+    sd = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).std().values
+    a = atr(df, 14)
+    up, lo = ma + k * sd, ma - k * sd
+    ents = []
+    for i in range(n + 14, len(c)):
+        if np.isnan(up[i]) or np.isnan(a[i]):
+            continue
+        if c[i] < lo[i] and c[i - 1] >= lo[i - 1]:          # appena sotto la banda
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": 1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] - sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+        elif c[i] > up[i] and c[i - 1] <= up[i - 1]:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": -1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] + sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+    return ents
+
+
+def rsi_revert(df, n=14, lo=30, hi=70, sl_atr=2.0, max_bars=24, ma_n=20):
+    """RSI mean-reversion: long su RSI<lo che risale, TP alla media mobile."""
+    c = df["close"].values
+    r = rsi(c, n)
+    ma = pd.Series(c).rolling(ma_n).mean().values
+    a = atr(df, 14)
+    ents = []
+    for i in range(max(n, ma_n) + 1, len(c)):
+        if np.isnan(r[i]) or np.isnan(ma[i]) or np.isnan(a[i]):
+            continue
+        if r[i - 1] < lo <= r[i]:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": 1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] - sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+        elif r[i - 1] > hi >= r[i]:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": -1, "tp": ma[i], "sl": c[i] + sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+    return ents
+
+
+def donchian_trend(df, n=20, sl_atr=2.0, tp_atr=6.0, max_bars=120):
+    """Trend-following: breakout canale Donchian, TP/SL in multipli di ATR."""
+    h, l, c = df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["close"].values
+    hh = pd.Series(h).rolling(n).max().shift(1).values
+    ll = pd.Series(l).rolling(n).min().shift(1).values
+    a = atr(df, 14)
+    ents = []
+    for i in range(n + 14, len(c)):
+        if np.isnan(hh[i]) or np.isnan(a[i]):
+            continue
+        if c[i] > hh[i]:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": 1, "tp": c[i] + tp_atr * a[i], "sl": c[i] - sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+        elif c[i] < ll[i]:
+            ents.append({"i": i, "d": -1, "tp": c[i] - tp_atr * a[i], "sl": c[i] + sl_atr * a[i], "max_bars": max_bars})
+    return ents
+
+
+STRATS = {
+    "BOLL_fade k2 m24":   (bollinger_fade, dict(n=20, k=2.0, sl_atr=2.0, max_bars=24)),
+    "BOLL_fade k2.5 m24": (bollinger_fade, dict(n=20, k=2.5, sl_atr=2.0, max_bars=24)),
+    "RSI_revert 30/70":   (rsi_revert, dict(n=14, lo=30, hi=70, sl_atr=2.0, max_bars=24)),
+    "RSI_revert 25/75":   (rsi_revert, dict(n=14, lo=25, hi=75, sl_atr=2.0, max_bars=24)),
+    "DONCH_trend n20":    (donchian_trend, dict(n=20, sl_atr=2.0, tp_atr=6.0, max_bars=120)),
+    "DONCH_trend n50":    (donchian_trend, dict(n=50, sl_atr=2.0, tp_atr=8.0, max_bars=200)),
+}
+
+
+def deep_dive():
+    print("\n" + "#" * 120)
+    print("  APPROFONDIMENTO BOLLINGER FADE (mean-reversion) — l'unica famiglia con edge netto")
+    print("#" * 120)
+
+    cases = [("BTC", "1h"), ("ETH", "1h"), ("BTC", "4h"), ("ETH", "4h")]
+    base = dict(n=20, k=2.5, sl_atr=2.0, max_bars=24)
+
+    # --- per anno (config base k2.5/n20) ---
+    print(f"\n  [1] PnL NETTO per anno — n=20 k=2.5 sl=2ATR | fee {FEE_RT*100:.2f}% RT")
+    all_years = sorted({y for a, tf in cases for y in simulate(bollinger_fade(get_df(a, tf), **base), get_df(a, tf))["yearly"]})
+    print(f"  {'Asset/TF':<10s}" + "".join(f"{y:>8d}" for y in all_years) + f"{'TOT%':>9s}{'DD%':>6s}")
+    for a, tf in cases:
+        df = get_df(a, tf)
+        r = simulate(bollinger_fade(df, **base), df)
+        row = "".join(f"{r['yearly'].get(y, 0):>+8.0f}" for y in all_years)
+        print(f"  {a+' '+tf:<10s}{row}{r['ret']:>+9.0f}{r['dd']:>6.0f}")
+
+    # --- sensibilita' fee ---
+    print(f"\n  [2] SENSIBILITA' FEE — Ret% FULL / OOS (n=20 k=2.5)")
+    fees = [0.0, 0.0005, 0.001, 0.002]
+    print(f"  {'Asset/TF':<10s}" + "".join(f"{f'{f*100:.2f}%RT':>22s}" for f in fees))
+    print(f"  {'':<10s}" + "".join(f"{'full':>11s}{'oos':>11s}" for _ in fees))
+    for a, tf in cases:
+        df = get_df(a, tf)
+        ents = bollinger_fade(df, **base)
+        split = int(len(df) * (1 - OOS_FRAC))
+        oents = [e for e in ents if e["i"] >= split]
+        cells = ""
+        for f in fees:
+            cells += f"{simulate(ents, df, fee_rt=f)['ret']:>+11.0f}{simulate(oents, df, fee_rt=f)['ret']:>+11.0f}"
+        print(f"  {a+' '+tf:<10s}{cells}")
+
+    # --- griglia parametri (robustezza) su BTC/ETH 1h ---
+    print(f"\n  [3] GRIGLIA PARAMETRI — Ret%OOS (DD%) | fee {FEE_RT*100:.2f}% RT, deve essere stabile")
+    for a in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+        df = get_df(a, "1h")
+        split = int(len(df) * (1 - OOS_FRAC))
+        print(f"\n  {a} 1h     " + "".join(f"{f'k={k}':>16s}" for k in [2.0, 2.5, 3.0]))
+        for n in [14, 20, 30, 50]:
+            cells = ""
+            for k in [2.0, 2.5, 3.0]:
+                ents = [e for e in bollinger_fade(df, n=n, k=k, sl_atr=2.0, max_bars=24) if e["i"] >= split]
+                r = simulate(ents, df)
+                cell = f"{r['ret']:+.0f}({r['dd']:.0f})"
+                cells += f"{cell:>16s}"
+            print(f"   n={n:<4d}{cells}")
+
+
+def main():
+    print("=" * 120)
+    print(f"  RICERCA STRATEGIE — NETTO dopo fee {FEE_RT*100:.2f}% RT | leva {LEV:.0f}x | pos {POS*100:.0f}% "
+          f"| OOS = ultimo {int(OOS_FRAC*100)}%")
+    print("=" * 120)
+    print(f"  {'Strategia':<20s}{'Asset':>5s}{'TF':>5s}{'Trd':>6s}{'Tr/yr':>7s}{'Win%':>7s}"
+          f"{'Ret%FULL':>10s}{'Ret%OOS':>10s}{'DD%':>7s}{'Exp%':>7s}{'AnniPos':>9s}")
+    print("  " + "-" * 116)
+
+    for label, (fn, params) in STRATS.items():
+        for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+            for tf in ["1h", "4h"]:
+                df = get_df(asset, tf)
+                ents = fn(df, **params)
+                full = simulate(ents, df)
+                split = int(len(df) * (1 - OOS_FRAC))
+                oos = simulate([e for e in ents if e["i"] >= split], df)
+                yrs = full["yearly"]
+                pos_yrs = sum(1 for v in yrs.values() if v > 0)
+                tr_yr = full["trades"] / max(len(yrs), 1)
+                flag = "  <<<" if oos["ret"] > 0 and full["ret"] > 0 and pos_yrs >= max(len(yrs) - 1, 1) else ""
+                print(f"  {label:<20s}{asset:>5s}{tf:>5s}{full['trades']:>6d}{tr_yr:>7.0f}{full['win']:>7.1f}"
+                      f"{full['ret']:>+10.1f}{oos['ret']:>+10.1f}{full['dd']:>7.1f}{full['exposure']:>7.1f}"
+                      f"{f'{pos_yrs}/{len(yrs)}':>9s}{flag}")
+        print("  " + "-" * 116)
+    print("  Ret%FULL/OOS = ritorno NETTO composto su €1000. AnniPos = anni con PnL netto>0.")
+    print("  <<< = positivo full+OOS e robusto (quasi tutti gli anni positivi).")
+    deep_dive()
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

scripts/analysis/validate_worker_mr01.py

@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+"""Re-validazione: il StrategyWorker REALE tradi MR01 con edge netto?
+
+Guida il worker vero (generate_signals + nuova logica exit TP/SL/max_bars) su
+finestre mobili di dati 1h storici, simulando il polling live. Conferma che
+sulla finestra OOS l'edge netto (dopo fee 0.10% RT) sopravvive alla meccanica
+del worker (exit su prezzo corrente, piu' conservativa del backtest high/low).
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import contextlib
+import os
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+from src.live.strategy_loader import load_strategy
+from src.live.strategy_worker import StrategyWorker
+
+OOS_FRAC = 0.30
+WIN = 250  # barre per finestra di poll (warmup bb_window=50 + ATR)
+
+
+def replay(asset: str, params: dict):
+    df = load_data(asset, "1h").reset_index(drop=True)
+    n = len(df)
+    split = int(n * (1 - OOS_FRAC))
+    strat = load_strategy("MR01_bollinger_fade")
+    w = StrategyWorker(strat, asset, "1h", capital=1000.0, position_size=0.15,
+                       leverage=3.0, hold_bars=3, params=params,
+                       data_dir=Path(f"/tmp/replay_{asset}"))
+    w._notify = lambda *a, **k: None
+    # stato pulito
+    for attr, val in dict(capital=1000.0, in_position=False, direction=0, entry_price=0,
+                          bars_held=0, total_trades=0, total_wins=0, last_bar_ts=0,
+                          tp=0.0, sl=0.0, max_bars=0).items():
+        setattr(w, attr, val)
+
+    start = max(split, WIN)
+    with contextlib.redirect_stdout(open(os.devnull, "w")):
+        for j in range(start, n):
+            w.tick(df.iloc[j - WIN + 1 : j + 1])
+
+    ret = (w.capital / 1000 - 1) * 100
+    acc = w.total_wins / w.total_trades * 100 if w.total_trades else 0.0
+    import pandas as pd
+    period = (f"{pd.to_datetime(df['timestamp'].iloc[start], unit='ms', utc=True).date()}"
+              f"->{pd.to_datetime(df['timestamp'].iloc[-1], unit='ms', utc=True).date()}")
+    return w.total_trades, acc, ret, w.capital, period
+
+
+def main():
+    print("=" * 90)
+    print("  RE-VALIDAZIONE WORKER REALE su MR01 (OOS, fee 0.10% RT, leva 3x) — finestra poll 250b")
+    print("=" * 90)
+    params = dict(bb_window=50, k=2.5, sl_atr=2.0, max_bars=24)
+    print(f"  {'Asset':>6s}{'Periodo OOS':>26s}{'Trade':>7s}{'Win%':>7s}{'Ret%':>9s}{'Cap€':>9s}")
+    print("  " + "-" * 80)
+    for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+        t, acc, ret, cap, period = replay(asset, params)
+        print(f"  {asset:>6s}{period:>26s}{t:>7d}{acc:>7.1f}{ret:>+9.1f}{cap:>9.0f}")
+    print("  " + "-" * 80)
+    print("  Atteso: Ret% positivo (l'edge mean-reversion sopravvive alla meccanica del worker).")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

scripts/analysis/yearly_market_report.py

@@ -0,0 +1,169 @@
+"""Report accuracy per ANNO × MERCATO delle strategie migliori.
+
+Esegue ogni strategia vincente su BTC e ETH e produce tabella
+accuracy/trades per ogni anno. Permette di vedere robustezza temporale
+e differenze tra mercati.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import importlib.util
+from pathlib import Path
+
+STRATEGIES_DIR = Path("scripts/strategies")
+
+
+def load_class(module_file, class_name):
+    path = STRATEGIES_DIR / f"{module_file}.py"
+    spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(module_file, path)
+    mod = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec)
+    spec.loader.exec_module(mod)
+    return getattr(mod, class_name)
+
+
+# (label, module, class, params, hold)
+STRATEGIES = [
+    ("SQ02 antifake+vol", "SQ02_squeeze_antifake_vol", "SqueezeAntifakeVol", {}, 3),
+    ("MT01 ema20+vol",    "MT01_squeeze_mtf_momentum", "SqueezeMTFMomentum",
+     {"ema_period": 20, "min_slope": 0.001, "vol_filter": True}, 3),
+    ("PD01 vtb3 vm1.3",   "PD01_price_volume_divergence", "PriceVolumeDivergence",
+     {}, 3),
+    ("CM01 cb6+vol",      "CM01_cross_market_momentum", "CrossMarketMomentum",
+     {"cross_bars": 6, "mom_min": 0.001, "use_vol": True}, 3),
+    ("AD01 lt.65 ht.95",  "AD01_adaptive_squeeze", "AdaptiveSqueeze",
+     {"low_thr": 0.65, "high_thr": 0.95, "use_vol": True}, 3),
+]
+
+ASSETS = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+TF = "15m"
+ALL_YEARS = list(range(2018, 2027))
+
+
+def run():
+    results = {}  # (label, asset) -> BacktestResult
+
+    for label, module, cls_name, params, hold in STRATEGIES:
+        try:
+            cls = load_class(module, cls_name)
+        except Exception as e:
+            print(f"SKIP {label}: {e}")
+            continue
+        strat = cls()
+        for asset in ASSETS:
+            try:
+                r = strat.backtest(asset, TF, hold=hold, **params)
+                if r:
+                    results[(label, asset)] = r
+            except Exception as e:
+                print(f"  errore {label} {asset}: {e}")
+
+    # ── Tabella ACCURACY per anno × mercato ──────────────────────────
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 140}")
+    print(f"  ACCURACY PER ANNO × MERCATO — {TF} (fee 0.2% RT, leva 3x, pos 15%)")
+    print(f"{'=' * 140}")
+
+    header = f"  {'Strategia':<22s} {'Mkt':>3s}"
+    for y in ALL_YEARS:
+        header += f" {y:>7d}"
+    header += f" │ {'TOT':>6s} {'DD%':>5s} {'Worst':>10s}"
+    print(header)
+    print(f"  {'─' * 136}")
+
+    for label, module, cls_name, params, hold in STRATEGIES:
+        for asset in ASSETS:
+            r = results.get((label, asset))
+            if not r:
+                continue
+            yd = {ys.year: ys for ys in r.yearly}
+            line = f"  {label:<22s} {asset:>3s}"
+            for y in ALL_YEARS:
+                if y in yd:
+                    line += f" {yd[y].accuracy:>5.0f}%↑" if yd[y].accuracy >= 80 else f" {yd[y].accuracy:>5.0f}% "
+                else:
+                    line += f" {'—':>7s}"
+            worst = r.worst_year
+            worst_str = f"{worst.year}({worst.accuracy:.0f}%)" if worst else "N/A"
+            line += f" │ {r.accuracy:>5.1f}% {r.max_dd:>4.1f}% {worst_str:>10s}"
+            print(line)
+        print(f"  {'·' * 136}")
+
+    # ── Tabella TRADES per anno × mercato ────────────────────────────
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 140}")
+    print(f"  NUMERO TRADES PER ANNO × MERCATO")
+    print(f"{'=' * 140}")
+
+    header = f"  {'Strategia':<22s} {'Mkt':>3s}"
+    for y in ALL_YEARS:
+        header += f" {y:>7d}"
+    header += f" │ {'TOT':>6s} {'€/day':>6s}"
+    print(header)
+    print(f"  {'─' * 130}")
+
+    for label, module, cls_name, params, hold in STRATEGIES:
+        for asset in ASSETS:
+            r = results.get((label, asset))
+            if not r:
+                continue
+            yd = {ys.year: ys for ys in r.yearly}
+            line = f"  {label:<22s} {asset:>3s}"
+            for y in ALL_YEARS:
+                if y in yd:
+                    line += f" {yd[y].trades:>7d}"
+                else:
+                    line += f" {'—':>7s}"
+            line += f" │ {r.trades:>6d} {r.daily_pnl:>+6.2f}"
+            print(line)
+        print(f"  {'·' * 130}")
+
+    # ── Tabella PnL per anno × mercato ──────────────────────────────
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 140}")
+    print(f"  PnL € PER ANNO × MERCATO (su €1000, no compounding tra anni)")
+    print(f"{'=' * 140}")
+
+    header = f"  {'Strategia':<22s} {'Mkt':>3s}"
+    for y in ALL_YEARS:
+        header += f" {y:>7d}"
+    header += f" │ {'TOT€':>8s}"
+    print(header)
+    print(f"  {'─' * 132}")
+
+    for label, module, cls_name, params, hold in STRATEGIES:
+        for asset in ASSETS:
+            r = results.get((label, asset))
+            if not r:
+                continue
+            yd = {ys.year: ys for ys in r.yearly}
+            line = f"  {label:<22s} {asset:>3s}"
+            for y in ALL_YEARS:
+                if y in yd:
+                    line += f" {yd[y].pnl:>+7.0f}"
+                else:
+                    line += f" {'—':>7s}"
+            line += f" │ {r.pnl:>+8.0f}"
+            print(line)
+        print(f"  {'·' * 132}")
+
+    # ── Sintesi: media per anno (tutte le strategie) ────────────────
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 140}")
+    print(f"  SINTESI — Accuracy media per anno (tutte le strategie, BTC+ETH)")
+    print(f"{'=' * 140}")
+    year_acc = {y: [] for y in ALL_YEARS}
+    for (label, asset), r in results.items():
+        for ys in r.yearly:
+            if ys.trades >= 10:
+                year_acc[ys.year].append(ys.accuracy)
+
+    line_y = f"  {'Anno':<22s}    "
+    line_a = f"  {'Acc media':<22s}    "
+    for y in ALL_YEARS:
+        accs = year_acc[y]
+        avg = sum(accs) / len(accs) if accs else 0
+        line_y += f" {y:>7d}"
+        line_a += f" {avg:>6.1f}%"
+    print(line_y)
+    print(line_a)
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    run()

scripts/strategies/DIP01_dip_reversion.py

@@ -0,0 +1,152 @@
+"""DIP01 — Dip-Buy Z-Score Reversion (long-only).
+
+Variante robusta e ONESTA della famiglia mean-reversion: compra SOLO i dip
+(close a z<=-z_in deviazioni sotto la media mobile) e prende profitto al rientro
+verso la media. Niente short: nel campione 2018-2026 shortare cripto perde OOS
+sistematicamente (vedi scripts/analysis/honest_final.py).
+
+Logica:
+    1. z-score = (close - SMA(n)) / STD(n)
+    2. ENTRY long quando z attraversa al ribasso -z_in (capitolazione)
+    3. EXIT: take-profit alla media mobile, stop-loss a sl_atr*ATR sotto l'entry,
+       o time-limit max_bars
+    4. ingresso a close[i] (eseguibile dal vivo, nessun look-ahead)
+
+Validazione (netto, fee 0.10% RT Deribit, leva 3x, OOS = ultimo 30%):
+    BTC 1h: FULL +298% / OOS +59% / DD 23% / 7-9 anni positivi
+    ETH 1h: FULL +190% / OOS +224% / DD 54%
+    SOL 1h: FULL  +50% / OOS +13% / DD 25%
+    Regge lo sweep fee fino a 0.20% RT (BTC OOS +45% anche a 0.20%).
+    Robusto su BTC/ETH/SOL (asset major); sugli alt molto parabolici (DOGE/BNB)
+    non ha edge -> usare solo su BTC/ETH/SOL.
+
+Compatibile con StrategyWorker: ogni Signal porta tp/sl/max_bars in metadata.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats, TF_MINUTES
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+
+
+def _atr(df: pd.DataFrame, n: int = 14) -> np.ndarray:
+    h, l, c = df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["close"].values
+    pc = np.roll(c, 1); pc[0] = c[0]
+    tr = np.maximum(h - l, np.maximum(np.abs(h - pc), np.abs(l - pc)))
+    return pd.Series(tr).rolling(n).mean().values
+
+
+class DipReversion(Strategy):
+    name = "DIP01_dip_reversion"
+    description = "Long-only dip-buy z-score reversion, TP alla media"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH", "SOL"]
+    default_timeframes = ["1h"]
+    fee_rt = 0.001
+    leverage = 3.0
+    position_size = 0.15
+    initial_capital = 1000.0
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
+                         **params) -> list[Signal]:
+        c = df["close"].values
+        n = params.get("n", 50)
+        z_in = params.get("z_in", 2.5)
+        sl_atr = params.get("sl_atr", 2.5)
+        max_bars = params.get("max_bars", 24)
+
+        ma = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).mean().values
+        sd = pd.Series(c).rolling(n).std().values
+        a = _atr(df, 14)
+        z = (c - ma) / np.where(sd == 0, np.nan, sd)
+
+        signals: list[Signal] = []
+        for i in range(n + 14, len(c)):
+            if np.isnan(z[i]) or np.isnan(a[i]):
+                continue
+            if z[i] <= -z_in and z[i - 1] > -z_in:
+                signals.append(Signal(
+                    idx=i, direction=1, entry_price=c[i],
+                    metadata={"tp": float(ma[i]), "sl": float(c[i] - sl_atr * a[i]),
+                              "max_bars": max_bars},
+                ))
+        return signals
+
+    def backtest(self, asset: str, tf: str = "1h", hold: int = 3,
+                 **params) -> BacktestResult | None:
+        df = load_data(asset, tf)
+        ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+        signals = self.generate_signals(df, ts, **params)
+        if not signals:
+            return None
+        h, l, c = df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["close"].values
+        n = len(c)
+        fee = self.fee_rt * self.leverage
+        capital = peak = float(self.initial_capital)
+        max_dd = 0.0
+        total_bars = 0
+        last_exit = -1
+        yearly: dict[int, dict] = {}
+
+        for sig in signals:
+            i, d = sig.idx, sig.direction
+            if i <= last_exit or i + 1 >= n:
+                continue
+            entry = c[i]
+            tp, sl, mb = sig.metadata["tp"], sig.metadata["sl"], sig.metadata["max_bars"]
+            exit_p = c[min(i + mb, n - 1)]
+            j = min(i + mb, n - 1)
+            for step in range(1, mb + 1):
+                j = i + step
+                if j >= n:
+                    j = n - 1; exit_p = c[j]; break
+                hit_sl = (d == 1 and l[j] <= sl) or (d == -1 and h[j] >= sl)
+                hit_tp = (d == 1 and h[j] >= tp) or (d == -1 and l[j] <= tp)
+                if hit_sl:
+                    exit_p = sl; break
+                if hit_tp:
+                    exit_p = tp; break
+                if step == mb:
+                    exit_p = c[j]
+            ret = (exit_p - entry) / entry * d * self.leverage - fee
+            capital = max(capital + capital * self.position_size * ret, 10.0)
+            if capital > peak:
+                peak = capital
+            max_dd = max(max_dd, (peak - capital) / peak)
+            total_bars += (j - i)
+            last_exit = j
+            year = ts.iloc[i].year
+            yr = yearly.setdefault(year, {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnl": 0.0})
+            yr["t"] += 1
+            if ret > 0:
+                yr["w"] += 1
+            yr["pnl"] += ret * self.initial_capital
+
+        all_t = sum(v["t"] for v in yearly.values())
+        all_w = sum(v["w"] for v in yearly.values())
+        if all_t == 0:
+            return None
+        yearly_stats = [YearlyStats(y, v["t"], v["w"], v["pnl"]) for y, v in sorted(yearly.items())]
+        return BacktestResult(
+            strategy_name=self.name, asset=asset, timeframe=tf, params=params,
+            trades=all_t, wins=all_w, pnl=sum(v["pnl"] for v in yearly.values()),
+            capital=capital, initial_capital=self.initial_capital,
+            max_dd=max_dd * 100, time_in_market_pct=total_bars / n * 100,
+            avg_trade_duration_h=total_bars / all_t * TF_MINUTES.get(tf, 60) / 60,
+            years_active=len(yearly), yearly=yearly_stats,
+        )
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strat = DipReversion()
+    print(f"{'=' * 100}")
+    print(f"  DIP01 DIP-BUY REVERSION — netto fee {strat.fee_rt*100:.2f}% RT, leva {strat.leverage:.0f}x")
+    print(f"{'=' * 100}")
+    for asset in ["BTC", "ETH", "SOL"]:
+        r = strat.backtest(asset, "1h", n=50, z_in=2.5, sl_atr=2.5, max_bars=24)
+        if r:
+            r.strategy_name = f"DIP01 {asset} 1h"
+            r.print_summary()

scripts/strategies/MR01_bollinger_fade.py

@@ -0,0 +1,167 @@
+"""MR01 — Bollinger Fade (mean-reversion).
+
+L'UNICA famiglia con edge netto reale dopo l'analisi out-of-sample fee-aware
+(vedi scripts/analysis/strategy_research.py). Contrario della tesi squeeze:
+i breakout RIENTRANO, quindi si fada l'estremo verso la media.
+
+Logica:
+    1. Bollinger Band (window n, k deviazioni) sul close
+    2. ENTRY: close esce sotto la banda inferiore -> long (o sopra la superiore -> short)
+    3. EXIT: take-profit alla media mobile (il rientro atteso),
+       stop-loss a sl_atr*ATR oltre l'estremo, oppure time-limit max_bars
+    4. ingresso a close[i] (eseguibile dal vivo, nessun look-ahead)
+
+Validazione (netto, fee 0.10% RT reale Deribit, leva 3x, OOS = ultimo 30%):
+    BTC 1h n=50 k=2.5: +201% OOS, DD 15%, ~tutti gli anni positivi
+    ETH 1h n=50 k=2.0: +1238% OOS, DD 23%
+    Robusto su TUTTA la griglia n in {14,20,30,50} x k in {2.0,2.5,3.0}
+    e su tutte le fee 0.00-0.20% RT (margine di sicurezza ampio).
+
+NOTA LIVE: usa TP alla media + SL ad ATR + max_bars. Lo StrategyWorker attuale
+esce solo a hold_bars/stop -2% fisso: per tradarla come validata il worker deve
+supportare gli exit TP/SL passati in metadata (vedi metadata di ogni Signal).
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats, TF_MINUTES
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+
+
+def _atr(df: pd.DataFrame, n: int = 14) -> np.ndarray:
+    h, l, c = df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["close"].values
+    pc = np.roll(c, 1); pc[0] = c[0]
+    tr = np.maximum(h - l, np.maximum(np.abs(h - pc), np.abs(l - pc)))
+    return pd.Series(tr).rolling(n).mean().values
+
+
+class BollingerFade(Strategy):
+    name = "MR01_bollinger_fade"
+    description = "Mean-reversion: fada la banda di Bollinger, TP alla media"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["1h"]
+    fee_rt = 0.001          # Deribit perp realistico (taker 0.05%/lato)
+    leverage = 3.0
+    position_size = 0.15
+    initial_capital = 1000.0
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
+                         **params) -> list[Signal]:
+        c = df["close"].values
+        n_len = len(c)
+        bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 50)
+        k = params.get("k", 2.5)
+        sl_atr = params.get("sl_atr", 2.0)
+        max_bars = params.get("max_bars", 24)
+
+        ma = pd.Series(c).rolling(bb_w).mean().values
+        sd = pd.Series(c).rolling(bb_w).std().values
+        a = _atr(df, 14)
+        up, lo = ma + k * sd, ma - k * sd
+
+        signals: list[Signal] = []
+        for i in range(bb_w + 14, n_len):
+            if np.isnan(up[i]) or np.isnan(a[i]):
+                continue
+            if c[i] < lo[i] and c[i - 1] >= lo[i - 1]:
+                d, sl = 1, c[i] - sl_atr * a[i]
+            elif c[i] > up[i] and c[i - 1] <= up[i - 1]:
+                d, sl = -1, c[i] + sl_atr * a[i]
+            else:
+                continue
+            signals.append(Signal(
+                idx=i, direction=d, entry_price=c[i],
+                metadata={"tp": float(ma[i]), "sl": float(sl), "max_bars": max_bars},
+            ))
+        return signals
+
+    def backtest(self, asset: str, tf: str = "1h", hold: int = 3,
+                 **params) -> BacktestResult | None:
+        """Backtest fedele: TP alla media / SL ad ATR / time-limit, fee+leva nette."""
+        df = load_data(asset, tf)
+        ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+        signals = self.generate_signals(df, ts, **params)
+        if not signals:
+            return None
+
+        h, l, c = df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["close"].values
+        n = len(c)
+        fee = self.fee_rt * self.leverage
+        capital = peak = float(self.initial_capital)
+        max_dd = 0.0
+        total_bars = 0
+        last_exit = -1
+        yearly: dict[int, dict] = {}
+
+        for sig in signals:
+            i, d = sig.idx, sig.direction
+            if i <= last_exit or i + 1 >= n:
+                continue
+            entry = c[i]
+            tp, sl, mb = sig.metadata["tp"], sig.metadata["sl"], sig.metadata["max_bars"]
+            exit_p = c[min(i + mb, n - 1)]
+            j = min(i + mb, n - 1)
+            for step in range(1, mb + 1):
+                j = i + step
+                if j >= n:
+                    j = n - 1; exit_p = c[j]; break
+                hit_sl = (d == 1 and l[j] <= sl) or (d == -1 and h[j] >= sl)
+                hit_tp = (d == 1 and h[j] >= tp) or (d == -1 and l[j] <= tp)
+                if hit_sl:
+                    exit_p = sl; break
+                if hit_tp:
+                    exit_p = tp; break
+                if step == mb:
+                    exit_p = c[j]
+
+            ret = (exit_p - entry) / entry * d * self.leverage - fee
+            capital = max(capital + capital * self.position_size * ret, 10.0)
+            if capital > peak:
+                peak = capital
+            max_dd = max(max_dd, (peak - capital) / peak)
+            total_bars += (j - i)
+            last_exit = j
+
+            year = ts.iloc[i].year
+            yr = yearly.setdefault(year, {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnl": 0.0})
+            yr["t"] += 1
+            if ret > 0:
+                yr["w"] += 1
+            yr["pnl"] += ret * self.initial_capital
+
+        all_t = sum(v["t"] for v in yearly.values())
+        all_w = sum(v["w"] for v in yearly.values())
+        if all_t == 0:
+            return None
+
+        yearly_stats = [YearlyStats(y, v["t"], v["w"], v["pnl"]) for y, v in sorted(yearly.items())]
+        return BacktestResult(
+            strategy_name=self.name, asset=asset, timeframe=tf, params=params,
+            trades=all_t, wins=all_w, pnl=sum(v["pnl"] for v in yearly.values()),
+            capital=capital, initial_capital=self.initial_capital,
+            max_dd=max_dd * 100, time_in_market_pct=total_bars / n * 100,
+            avg_trade_duration_h=total_bars / all_t * TF_MINUTES.get(tf, 60) / 60,
+            years_active=len(yearly), yearly=yearly_stats,
+        )
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strat = BollingerFade()
+    print(f"{'=' * 110}")
+    print(f"  MR01 BOLLINGER FADE — netto fee {strat.fee_rt*100:.2f}% RT, leva {strat.leverage:.0f}x")
+    print(f"{'=' * 110}")
+    results = []
+    for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+        for k in [2.0, 2.5]:
+            r = strat.backtest(asset, "1h", bb_window=50, k=k, sl_atr=2.0, max_bars=24)
+            if r:
+                r.strategy_name = f"MR01 {asset} 1h n50 k{k}"
+                results.append(r)
+    for r in results:
+        r.print_summary()
+    if results:
+        results[0].print_yearly()

scripts/strategies/PORT01_portfolio.py

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+"""PORT01 — Portafoglio combinato delle 3 strategie oneste (equal-weight, daily rebal).
+
+Sleeve (meccanismi anti-correlati):
+    DIP01     dip-buy reversion su BTC (1h)        regime: reversione
+    TR01      EMA 20/100 trend su paniere (4h)     regime: momentum singolo
+    ROT02     dual-momentum rotation (1d)          regime: forza relativa + risk-off
+
+La diversificazione e' il vero motore di risk-reduction: il DD del portafoglio
+scende SOTTO quello della sleeve meno rischiosa, mantenendo una CAGR alta e
+azzerando quasi gli anni negativi (il 2022 bear passa da -30% di ROT a -1%).
+
+Risultato (netto, 2021-2026, leva 3x pos 15% per sleeve):
+    DIP01_BTC     +322%  DD 15%  CAGR 31%
+    TR01_basket   +591%  DD 27%  CAGR 43%
+    ROT02_dualmom +771%  DD 40%  CAGR 49%
+    PORTAFOGLIO   +642%  DD 12%  CAGR 45%   <-- DD piu' basso di ogni sleeve
+    Per-anno: 2021 +203 · 2022 -1 · 2023 +47 · 2024 +50 · 2025 +14 · 2026 -2
+Logica e ricostruzione: scripts/analysis/honest_improve2.py.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import pandas as pd
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_improve import _dd  # noqa: E402
+from scripts.analysis.honest_improve2 import (  # noqa: E402
+    dip_market_gated, _daily_equity, _norm, _tr_basket_daily, _rot_daily_equity,
+)
+
+
+def run():
+    idx = pd.date_range("2021-01-01", "2026-05-26", freq="1D", tz="UTC")
+    d = dip_market_gated("BTC", market_n=0, return_equity=True)
+    members = {
+        "DIP01_BTC": _norm(_daily_equity(d["eq_ts"], d["eq_v"], idx)),
+        "TR01_basket": _norm(_tr_basket_daily(["BNB", "BTC", "DOGE", "SOL", "XRP"], idx)),
+        "ROT02_dualmom": _norm(_rot_daily_equity(idx)),
+    }
+    drets = pd.DataFrame({k: v.pct_change().fillna(0) for k, v in members.items()})
+    port_ret = drets.mean(axis=1)
+    combo = (1 + port_ret).cumprod()
+    yrs = (idx[-1] - idx[0]).days / 365.25
+
+    print("=" * 80)
+    print(f"  PORT01 — portafoglio equal-weight (daily rebal) | {idx[0].date()} -> {idx[-1].date()}")
+    print("=" * 80)
+    print(f"  {'sleeve':<16s}{'ret%':>9s}{'DD%':>7s}{'CAGR%':>8s}")
+    for name, s in members.items():
+        r = (s.iloc[-1] / s.iloc[0] - 1) * 100
+        cagr = ((s.iloc[-1] / s.iloc[0]) ** (1 / yrs) - 1) * 100
+        print(f"  {name:<16s}{r:>+9.0f}{_dd(s.values):>7.0f}{cagr:>8.0f}")
+    r = (combo.iloc[-1] / combo.iloc[0] - 1) * 100
+    cagr = ((combo.iloc[-1] / combo.iloc[0]) ** (1 / yrs) - 1) * 100
+    print(f"  {'PORTAFOGLIO':<16s}{r:>+9.0f}{_dd(combo.values):>7.0f}{cagr:>8.0f}")
+    pa = port_ret.groupby(port_ret.index.year).apply(lambda x: ((1 + x).prod() - 1) * 100)
+    print("  Per-anno: " + "  ".join(f"{y}:{v:+.0f}%" for y, v in pa.items()))
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    run()

scripts/strategies/ROT01_xsect_rotation.py

@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+"""ROT01 — Cross-Sectional Momentum Rotation (multi-crypto, long-only), 1d.
+
+UNA strategia che usa l'INTERO paniere di crypto in un solo book: ogni giorno
+ordina gli asset per momentum (rendimento sugli ultimi `lookback` giorni) e alloca
+il capitale in parti uguali ai `top_k` con momentum positivo; il resto in cash.
+Cattura la dispersione tra crypto (gli alt forti corrono molto piu' di BTC nei bull)
+senza shortare nulla. Meccanismo distinto da DIP01/TR01 -> vera diversificazione.
+
+Onesto: i pesi a close[i] usano solo rendimenti passati; il rendimento del giorno
+i->i+1 e' realizzato con quei pesi. Fee sul turnover. Allineamento per timestamp.
+
+Validazione (netto, fee 0.10% RT, gross 0.45, OOS = ultimo 30%):
+    lb=60 top2 -> FULL +679% / OOS +44% / DD 53% / 5-7 anni positivi.
+    Param-insensitive (tutte le lb/k positive) e regge fee fino 0.20% RT (OOS +41%).
+    Per-anno: 2020+33 2021+181 2022-29 2023+43 2024+59 2025+6 2026-10 (i negativi = bear).
+Dettagli in scripts/analysis/honest_rotation.py / honest_final.py.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_rotation import build_panel, simulate_rotation  # noqa: E402
+from scripts.analysis.honest_lab import available_assets
+
+LOOKBACK, TOP_K, TF = 60, 2, "1d"
+
+
+def run():
+    assets = available_assets()
+    panel = build_panel(assets, TF)
+    print("=" * 90)
+    print(f"  ROT01 ROTAZIONE cross-sectional momentum | {TF} lb={LOOKBACK} top{TOP_K} | netto fee 0.10% RT")
+    print("=" * 90)
+    print(f"  Paniere: {list(panel.columns)}")
+    print(f"  Periodo: {panel.index[0].date()} -> {panel.index[-1].date()} ({panel.shape[0]} barre)")
+    full = simulate_rotation(panel, lookback=LOOKBACK, top_k=TOP_K, fee_rt=0.001)
+    oos = simulate_rotation(panel, lookback=LOOKBACK, top_k=TOP_K, fee_rt=0.001, oos_frac=0.30)
+    print(f"\n  FULL: {full['ret']:+.0f}%  DD {full['dd']:.0f}%  turnover {full['turnover']:.0f}")
+    print(f"  OOS : {oos['ret']:+.0f}%  DD {oos['dd']:.0f}%  ({full['pos_years']}/{full['n_years']} anni positivi)")
+    print("  Per-anno: " + "  ".join(f"{y}:{v:+.0f}%" for y, v in sorted(full["yearly"].items())))
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    run()

scripts/strategies/ROT02_dual_momentum.py

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+"""ROT02 — Dual-Momentum Rotation (ROT01 + overlay di absolute momentum).
+
+Evoluzione di ROT01: alla rotazione cross-sectional (forza relativa) aggiunge un
+overlay di ABSOLUTE momentum sul mercato: se BTC e' sotto la sua media a `regime_n`
+giorni (mercato risk-off), va completamente in CASH. Cosi' si evitano i bear di
+sistema (2022, 2026 YTD) che erano gli unici anni rossi di ROT01.
+
+Risultato (netto, fee 0.10% RT, gross 0.45, OOS = ultimo 30%): MIGLIORA TUTTO
+rispetto a ROT01.
+    ROT01 base      : FULL +679% / OOS +44% / DD 53%
+    ROT02 SMA100    : FULL +1095% / OOS +98% / DD 40%   <-- PnL su, DD giu'
+Param-insensitive sulla finestra di regime (SMA100-150). Dettagli in
+scripts/analysis/honest_improve.py (rot_improved).
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_improve import rot_improved  # noqa: E402
+
+LOOKBACK, TOP_K, REGIME_N = 60, 2, 100
+
+
+def run():
+    print("=" * 90)
+    print(f"  ROT02 DUAL-MOMENTUM | 1d lb={LOOKBACK} top{TOP_K} + cash se BTC<SMA{REGIME_N} | netto fee 0.10% RT")
+    print("=" * 90)
+    full = rot_improved(lookback=LOOKBACK, top_k=TOP_K, regime_n=REGIME_N)
+    oos = rot_improved(lookback=LOOKBACK, top_k=TOP_K, regime_n=REGIME_N, oos_frac=0.30)
+    print(f"  FULL: {full['ret']:+.0f}%   DD {full['dd']:.0f}%   ({full['pos_years']}/{full['n_years']} anni positivi)")
+    print(f"  OOS : {oos['ret']:+.0f}%   DD {oos['dd']:.0f}%")
+    print("  Per-anno: " + "  ".join(f"{y}:{v:+.0f}%" for y, v in sorted(full["yearly"].items())))
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    run()

scripts/strategies/TR01_ema_trend.py

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+"""TR01 — EMA Trend Following (long-only), timeframe 4h.
+
+Cavalca i trend rialzisti, si mette in cash nei downtrend. Niente short
+(shortare cripto perde OOS nel campione 2018-2026). Complementare a DIP01:
+DIP01 guadagna nei regimi di reversione, TR01 nei regimi di trend.
+
+Logica:
+    1. EMA fast (20) e EMA slow (100) sul close
+    2. LONG quando EMA_fast > EMA_slow (uptrend), altrimenti CASH
+    3. posizione continua, decisione a close[i] (no look-ahead);
+       fee solo sui cambi di stato (poche operazioni = fee non letali)
+
+Validazione (netto, fee 0.10% RT, leva 3x, pos 15%, OOS = ultimo 30%):
+    robusto FULL+OOS su 5/8 asset: BNB(+14), BTC(+27), DOGE(+53), SOL(+7), XRP(+29) OOS.
+    ETH ~flat, ADA/LTC negativi OOS -> preferire BNB/BTC/DOGE/SOL/XRP.
+Dettagli in scripts/analysis/honest_final.py / honest_trend.py.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+from scripts.analysis.honest_trend import (  # noqa: E402
+    simulate_position, ema_dual_signal, oos as trend_oos,
+)
+from scripts.analysis.honest_lab import get_df
+
+ASSETS = ["BNB", "BTC", "DOGE", "SOL", "XRP"]
+FAST, SLOW, TF = 20, 100, "4h"
+
+
+def run():
+    print("=" * 90)
+    print(f"  TR01 EMA TREND {FAST}/{SLOW} long-only | {TF} | netto fee 0.10% RT leva 3x pos 15%")
+    print("=" * 90)
+    print(f"  {'Asset':<6s}{'Flip':>6s}{'FULL%':>9s}{'OOS%':>9s}{'DD%':>6s}{'Exp%':>6s}{'AnniPos':>9s}")
+    for a in ASSETS:
+        df = get_df(a, TF)
+        sig = ema_dual_signal(df, FAST, SLOW, long_only=True)
+        f = simulate_position(sig, df)
+        o = trend_oos(sig, df)
+        print(f"  {a:<6s}{f['flips']:>6d}{f['ret']:>+9.0f}{o['ret']:>+9.0f}"
+              f"{f['dd']:>6.0f}{f['exposure']:>6.0f}{str(f['pos_years'])+'/'+str(f['n_years']):>9s}")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    run()

scripts/waste/AD01_adaptive_squeeze.py

@@ -0,0 +1,205 @@
+"""AD01 — Adaptive Squeeze Threshold.
+
+Problema SQ02: sq_threshold fisso (0.8) non si adatta al regime di volatilità.
+Soluzione: threshold adattivo basato su volatilità recente.
+
+Logica:
+  - Calcola volatilità rolling (std dei rendimenti su finestra 100 barre)
+  - Confronta con percentile storico (rolling 500 barre)
+  - Alta vol (>70° percentile) → soglia BASSA (0.65) — squeeze più "lenti"
+  - Bassa vol (<30° percentile) → soglia ALTA (0.90) — squeeze "stretti"
+  - Vol media → soglia standard (0.80)
+
+Razionale: in mercati calmi, il BB si stringe molto → sq_threshold alto cattura
+segnali migliori. In mercati volatili, bastano squeeze minori per essere significativi.
+
+Anti-overfitting: solo 3 parametri (low_thr, mid_thr, high_thr), logica deterministica.
+Eredita antifakeout + volume da SQ02.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats, TF_MINUTES
+from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, ema
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+
+
+def _adaptive_sq_threshold(close: np.ndarray,
+                            vol_window: int = 100,
+                            regime_window: int = 500,
+                            low_thr: float = 0.65,
+                            mid_thr: float = 0.80,
+                            high_thr: float = 0.90) -> np.ndarray:
+    """Calcola sq_threshold adattivo per ogni barra."""
+    n = len(close)
+    lr = np.diff(np.log(np.where(close <= 0, 1e-10, close)))
+    vol = np.full(n, np.nan)
+    for i in range(vol_window, n):
+        vol[i] = np.std(lr[i - vol_window:i])
+
+    # Percentile rolling della volatilità
+    thresh = np.full(n, mid_thr)
+    for i in range(regime_window, n):
+        if np.isnan(vol[i]):
+            continue
+        hist = vol[i - regime_window:i]
+        hist = hist[~np.isnan(hist)]
+        if len(hist) < 10:
+            continue
+        p30 = np.percentile(hist, 30)
+        p70 = np.percentile(hist, 70)
+        if vol[i] < p30:
+            thresh[i] = high_thr   # vol bassa → soglia alta
+        elif vol[i] > p70:
+            thresh[i] = low_thr    # vol alta → soglia bassa
+        else:
+            thresh[i] = mid_thr
+    return thresh
+
+
+def _detect_adaptive_squeezes(close, high, low, kcr, adaptive_thr,
+                               min_dur: int = 5) -> list[dict]:
+    """Squeeze con threshold adattivo per ogni barra."""
+    events = []
+    in_sq = False
+    sq_start = 0
+    for i in range(1, len(close)):
+        if np.isnan(kcr[i]) or np.isnan(adaptive_thr[i]):
+            continue
+        thr = adaptive_thr[i]
+        is_sq = kcr[i] < thr
+        if is_sq and not in_sq:
+            in_sq = True
+            sq_start = i
+        elif not is_sq and in_sq:
+            in_sq = False
+            dur = i - sq_start
+            if dur < min_dur:
+                continue
+            events.append({
+                "idx": i, "dur": dur, "sq_start": sq_start,
+                "kcr_at_release": kcr[i],
+                "thr_used": adaptive_thr[i],
+            })
+    return events
+
+
+class AdaptiveSqueeze(Strategy):
+    name = "AD01_adaptive_squeeze"
+    description = "Squeeze con threshold adattivo a regime volatilità"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
+    fee_rt = 0.002
+    leverage = 3.0
+    position_size = 0.15
+    initial_capital = 1000.0
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
+                         **params) -> list[Signal]:
+        c = df["close"].values
+        h = df["high"].values
+        l = df["low"].values
+        v = df["volume"].values
+        n = len(c)
+
+        bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
+        low_thr = params.get("low_thr", 0.65)
+        mid_thr = params.get("mid_thr", 0.80)
+        high_thr = params.get("high_thr", 0.90)
+        retrace_limit = params.get("retrace_limit", 0.6)
+        vol_mult = params.get("vol_multiplier", 1.3)
+        use_vol = params.get("use_vol", True)
+        vol_window = params.get("vol_window", 100)
+        regime_window = params.get("regime_window", 500)
+
+        kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, bb_w)
+        adaptive_thr = _adaptive_sq_threshold(
+            c, vol_window, regime_window, low_thr, mid_thr, high_thr
+        )
+        events = _detect_adaptive_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr, adaptive_thr)
+
+        signals = []
+        for ev in events:
+            i = ev["idx"]
+            if i < 1 or i >= n:
+                continue
+
+            first_ret = (c[i] - c[i - 1]) / c[i - 1] if c[i - 1] > 0 else 0
+            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+                continue
+            direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
+
+            # Anti-fakeout
+            br = h[i] - l[i]
+            if br > 0:
+                if direction == 1 and (h[i] - c[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
+                    continue
+                elif direction == -1 and (c[i] - l[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
+                    continue
+
+            # Volume confirm
+            if use_vol:
+                sq_start = ev["sq_start"]
+                avg_sq_v = np.mean(v[sq_start:i])
+                if avg_sq_v > 0 and v[i] <= avg_sq_v * vol_mult:
+                    continue
+
+            signals.append(Signal(
+                idx=i,
+                direction=direction,
+                entry_price=c[i - 1],
+                metadata={
+                    "dur": ev["dur"],
+                    "thr_used": ev.get("thr_used", mid_thr),
+                },
+            ))
+        return signals
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = AdaptiveSqueeze()
+
+    configs = [
+        # low_thr, mid_thr, high_thr, use_vol
+        {"low_thr": 0.65, "mid_thr": 0.80, "high_thr": 0.90, "use_vol": True},
+        {"low_thr": 0.65, "mid_thr": 0.80, "high_thr": 0.90, "use_vol": False},
+        {"low_thr": 0.60, "mid_thr": 0.78, "high_thr": 0.92, "use_vol": True},
+        {"low_thr": 0.70, "mid_thr": 0.82, "high_thr": 0.90, "use_vol": True},
+        {"low_thr": 0.65, "mid_thr": 0.80, "high_thr": 0.95, "use_vol": True},
+        {"low_thr": 0.65, "mid_thr": 0.80, "high_thr": 0.90,
+         "use_vol": True, "vol_multiplier": 1.2},
+    ]
+
+    all_results = []
+    for cfg in configs:
+        for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+            for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
+                for hold in [3, 6]:
+                    r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **cfg)
+                    if r and r.trades >= 20:
+                        lbl = (f"AD01 lt={cfg['low_thr']} ht={cfg['high_thr']} "
+                               f"v={cfg['use_vol']} h={hold}")
+                        r.strategy_name = lbl
+                        all_results.append(r)
+
+    all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
+
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 130}")
+    print("  AD01 ADAPTIVE SQUEEZE THRESHOLD — TOP 20")
+    print(f"{'=' * 130}")
+    print(f"  {'Nome':<50s} {'A/T':>7s} {'Trades':>6s} {'Acc':>6s} "
+          f"{'PnL€':>10s} {'DD%':>6s} {'€/day':>7s} "
+          f"{'Mkt%':>5s} {'Dur':>5s} {'Anni':>4s}")
+    print(f"  {'─' * 120}")
+    for r in all_results[:20]:
+        r.print_summary()
+
+    if all_results:
+        all_results[0].print_yearly()
+
+    print(f"\n  BENCHMARK SQ02: 79.7% acc, 1250t, DD 6.5%, €5.23/day, 9 anni")
+    print(f"  BENCHMARK MT01: 82.7% acc, 503t, DD 5.9%")

scripts/waste/CM01_cross_market_momentum.py

@@ -0,0 +1,183 @@
+"""CM01 — Cross-Market Momentum Filter.
+
+Squeeze su asset primario, entra SOLO se l'altro asset (BTC↔ETH)
+mostra momentum short-term nella STESSA direzione.
+
+Differenza da MT01: MT01 usa EMA slope su 1h (trend lento).
+CM01 usa rendimento grezzo degli ultimi 3-6 bar sull'asset cross
+(momentum veloce, stesso timeframe).
+
+Razionale: BTC e ETH sono altamente correlati ma non perfettamente.
+Se BTC fa squeeze breakout UP e anche ETH sta salendo (momentum 3-6 bar),
+la probabilità di continuazione è maggiore perché c'è consenso di mercato.
+
+Anti-overfitting: 1 parametro chiave (cross_bars 3-6), logica deterministica.
+Eredita antifakeout + volume da SQ02.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats
+from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+
+
+class CrossMarketMomentum(Strategy):
+    name = "CM01_cross_momentum"
+    description = "Squeeze + cross-asset short-term momentum filter"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
+    fee_rt = 0.002
+    leverage = 3.0
+    position_size = 0.15
+    initial_capital = 1000.0
+
+    # Map asset → cross asset
+    _CROSS = {"BTC": "ETH", "ETH": "BTC"}
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
+                         **params) -> list[Signal]:
+        """Genera segnali con cross-market momentum."""
+        c = df["close"].values
+        h = df["high"].values
+        l = df["low"].values
+        v = df["volume"].values
+        n = len(c)
+        ts_ms = df["timestamp"].values
+
+        asset = params.get("asset", "BTC")
+        tf = params.get("tf", "15m")
+        bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
+        sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
+        retrace_limit = params.get("retrace_limit", 0.6)
+        vol_mult = params.get("vol_multiplier", 1.3)
+        use_vol = params.get("use_vol", True)
+        cross_bars = params.get("cross_bars", 4)  # barre momentum cross
+        mom_min = params.get("mom_min", 0.0)      # momentum minimo (0 = solo direzione)
+
+        # Carica cross asset
+        cross_asset = self._CROSS.get(asset)
+        if cross_asset is None:
+            return []
+
+        try:
+            df_cross = load_data(cross_asset, tf)
+        except Exception:
+            return []
+
+        c_cross = df_cross["close"].values
+        ts_cross_ms = df_cross["timestamp"].values
+        n_cross = len(c_cross)
+
+        # Momentum cross: rendimento log su cross_bars barre
+        cross_mom = np.full(n_cross, np.nan)
+        for i in range(cross_bars, n_cross):
+            if c_cross[i - cross_bars] > 0:
+                cross_mom[i] = np.log(c_cross[i] / c_cross[i - cross_bars])
+
+        kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, bb_w)
+        events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr, sq_thr)
+
+        signals = []
+        for ev in events:
+            i = ev["idx"]
+            if i < 1 or i >= n:
+                continue
+
+            first_ret = (c[i] - c[i - 1]) / c[i - 1] if c[i - 1] > 0 else 0
+            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+                continue
+            direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
+
+            # Anti-fakeout
+            br = h[i] - l[i]
+            if br > 0:
+                if direction == 1 and (h[i] - c[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
+                    continue
+                elif direction == -1 and (c[i] - l[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
+                    continue
+
+            # Volume confirm
+            if use_vol:
+                sq_start = ev["sq_start"]
+                avg_sq_v = np.mean(v[sq_start:i])
+                if avg_sq_v > 0 and v[i] <= avg_sq_v * vol_mult:
+                    continue
+
+            # Cross-market momentum: trova indice cross corrispondente
+            i_cross = np.searchsorted(ts_cross_ms, ts_ms[i]) - 1
+            if i_cross < cross_bars or i_cross >= n_cross:
+                continue
+            mom = cross_mom[i_cross]
+            if np.isnan(mom):
+                continue
+
+            # Filtra per direzione concordante
+            if direction == 1 and mom <= mom_min:
+                continue
+            if direction == -1 and mom >= -mom_min:
+                continue
+
+            signals.append(Signal(
+                idx=i,
+                direction=direction,
+                entry_price=c[i - 1],
+                metadata={
+                    "dur": ev["dur"],
+                    "cross_mom": float(mom),
+                },
+            ))
+        return signals
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = CrossMarketMomentum()
+
+    configs = [
+        # cross_bars, mom_min, use_vol
+        {"cross_bars": 3, "mom_min": 0.0, "use_vol": True},
+        {"cross_bars": 4, "mom_min": 0.0, "use_vol": True},
+        {"cross_bars": 6, "mom_min": 0.0, "use_vol": True},
+        {"cross_bars": 4, "mom_min": 0.001, "use_vol": True},
+        {"cross_bars": 4, "mom_min": 0.002, "use_vol": True},
+        {"cross_bars": 4, "mom_min": 0.0, "use_vol": False},
+        {"cross_bars": 3, "mom_min": 0.001, "use_vol": False},
+        {"cross_bars": 6, "mom_min": 0.001, "use_vol": True},
+    ]
+
+    all_results = []
+    for cfg in configs:
+        for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+            for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
+                for hold in [3, 6]:
+                    r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold,
+                                          cross_bars=cfg["cross_bars"],
+                                          mom_min=cfg["mom_min"],
+                                          use_vol=cfg["use_vol"])
+                    if r and r.trades >= 20:
+                        lbl = (f"CM01 cb={cfg['cross_bars']} "
+                               f"mm={cfg['mom_min']} v={cfg['use_vol']} h={hold}")
+                        r.strategy_name = lbl
+                        all_results.append(r)
+
+    all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
+
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 130}")
+    print("  CM01 CROSS-MARKET MOMENTUM — TOP 20")
+    print(f"{'=' * 130}")
+    print(f"  {'Nome':<50s} {'A/T':>7s} {'Trades':>6s} {'Acc':>6s} "
+          f"{'PnL€':>10s} {'DD%':>6s} {'€/day':>7s} "
+          f"{'Mkt%':>5s} {'Dur':>5s} {'Anni':>4s}")
+    print(f"  {'─' * 120}")
+    for r in all_results[:20]:
+        r.print_summary()
+
+    if all_results:
+        all_results[0].print_yearly()
+
+    print(f"\n  BENCHMARK SQ02: 79.7% acc, 1250t, DD 6.5%, €5.23/day, 9 anni")
+    print(f"  BENCHMARK MT01: 82.7% acc, 503t, DD 5.9%")

scripts/waste/ML01_squeeze_gbm.py

@@ -0,0 +1,266 @@
+"""ML01 — Squeeze + GBM (Gradient Boosting Machine) Walk-Forward.
+
+Strategia ibrida: squeeze breakout come pre-filtro (QUANDO tradare),
+GradientBoosting su features strutturali come conferma (QUALE direzione).
+
+Pipeline:
+    1. Rileva squeeze release (Bollinger esce da Keltner)
+    2. Estrai 44 features dalla finestra (structural multi-window + squeeze
+       metadata + price position + ATR + momentum breakout)
+    3. GBM walk-forward: train su 50% rolling, step 10%, predice direzione
+    4. Trade solo se ML ha confidenza ≥ ml_threshold
+
+IN:
+    - OHLCV DataFrame
+    - Parametri: bb_window (14), sq_threshold (0.8), brk_bars (3),
+                 ml_threshold (0.70), leverage (3), position_pct (0.15)
+
+OUT:
+    - BacktestResult con metriche walk-forward (no data leakage)
+    - Solo periodo di test (seconda metà dati)
+
+Risultati tipici:
+    ETH 15m bb14 ml=0.70: 76.9% acc, 1213 trades, DD 4.2%, €13.78/day
+    BTC 15m bb14 ml=0.70: 78.8% acc, 1964 trades, DD 7.0%, €5.51/day
+    BTC 1h  bb14 ml=0.70: 77.3% acc,  617 trades, DD 6.7%, €3.85/day
+
+Note:
+    - GBM = GradientBoostingClassifier di scikit-learn
+    - Walk-forward: nessun look-ahead, train sempre prima di test
+    - Il baseline squeeze puro ha accuracy più alta (~79.5%) ma DD peggiore
+    - Il valore del ML è filtrare breakout deboli → DD ridotto
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from sklearn.ensemble import GradientBoostingClassifier
+from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
+
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats, TF_MINUTES
+from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+
+
+def _build_features(df: pd.DataFrame, i: int, squeeze_info: dict) -> np.ndarray | None:
+    """44 features per il punto di squeeze release."""
+    if i < 100:
+        return None
+    o, h, l, c, v = (df["open"].values, df["high"].values, df["low"].values,
+                      df["close"].values, df["volume"].values)
+    feats = []
+    for w in [12, 24, 48]:
+        wc, wo = c[i-w:i], o[i-w:i]
+        wh, wl, wv = h[i-w:i], l[i-w:i], v[i-w:i]
+        mn, mx = wl.min(), max(wh.max(), wc.max())
+        rng = mx - mn if mx - mn > 0 else 1e-10
+        total = np.where(wh - wl == 0, 1e-10, wh - wl)
+        body = np.abs(wc - wo) / total
+        direction = np.sign(wc - wo)
+        log_c = np.log(np.where(wc == 0, 1e-10, wc))
+        rets = np.diff(log_c)
+        v_mean = np.mean(wv)
+        feats.extend([
+            np.mean(rets) if len(rets) > 0 else 0,
+            np.std(rets) if len(rets) > 0 else 0,
+            np.sum(rets) if len(rets) > 0 else 0,
+            float(pd.Series(rets).skew()) if len(rets) > 2 else 0,
+            float(pd.Series(rets).kurtosis()) if len(rets) > 3 else 0,
+            np.mean(body), np.std(body),
+            np.mean(direction), np.mean(direction[-min(3, w):]),
+            (wc[-1] - mn) / rng,
+            wv[-1] / v_mean if v_mean > 0 else 1,
+            np.corrcoef(rets[:-1], rets[1:])[0, 1] if len(rets) > 1 and np.std(rets) > 0 else 0,
+        ])
+    sq = squeeze_info
+    feats.extend([
+        sq["dur"], sq["dur"] / 24, sq["kcr_at_release"],
+        v[i-1] / sq.get("avg_vol", 1) if sq.get("avg_vol", 0) > 0 else 1,
+        np.mean(v[i:min(i+3, len(v))]) / sq.get("avg_vol", 1) if sq.get("avg_vol", 0) > 0 else 1,
+    ])
+    h48, l48 = np.max(h[max(0, i-48):i]), np.min(l[max(0, i-48):i])
+    r48 = h48 - l48
+    feats.append((c[i-1] - l48) / r48 if r48 > 0 else 0.5)
+    tr = np.maximum(h[i-14:i] - l[i-14:i],
+                    np.maximum(np.abs(h[i-14:i] - np.roll(c[i-14:i], 1)),
+                               np.abs(l[i-14:i] - np.roll(c[i-14:i], 1))))
+    feats.append(np.mean(tr[1:]) / c[i-1] if c[i-1] > 0 else 0)
+    feats.append((c[i] - c[i-1]) / c[i-1] if c[i-1] > 0 else 0)
+    return np.nan_to_num(np.array(feats), nan=0, posinf=1e6, neginf=-1e6)
+
+
+class SqueezeGBM(Strategy):
+    name = "ML01_squeeze_gbm"
+    description = "Squeeze + GBM walk-forward — ML filtra breakout deboli"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
+    fee_ml = 0.001
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
+        raise NotImplementedError("ML01 usa backtest custom con walk-forward")
+
+    def backtest(self, asset: str, tf: str, hold: int = 3, **params) -> BacktestResult | None:
+        bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
+        sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8 if tf == "1h" else 0.9)
+        brk = params.get("brk_bars", hold)
+        ml_thr = params.get("ml_threshold", 0.70)
+        lev = params.get("leverage", self.leverage)
+        pos = params.get("position_pct", self.position_size)
+
+        df = load_data(asset, tf)
+        close = df["close"].values
+        high = df["high"].values
+        low = df["low"].values
+        volume = df["volume"].values
+        n = len(df)
+        ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+
+        kcr = keltner_ratio(close, high, low, bb_w)
+        raw_events = detect_squeezes(close, high, low, kcr, sq_thr)
+
+        # Aggiungi avg_vol a ogni evento
+        events = []
+        for ev in raw_events:
+            ev["avg_vol"] = float(np.mean(volume[ev["sq_start"]:ev["idx"]]))
+            events.append(ev)
+
+        X_all, y_all, ev_all = [], [], []
+        for ev in events:
+            i = ev["idx"]
+            if i + brk >= n or i < 100:
+                continue
+            feats = _build_features(df, i, ev)
+            if feats is None:
+                continue
+            actual_ret = (close[i + brk - 1] - close[i - 1]) / close[i - 1]
+            X_all.append(feats)
+            y_all.append(1 if actual_ret > 0 else 0)
+            ev_all.append(ev)
+
+        if len(X_all) < 50:
+            return None
+
+        X, y = np.array(X_all), np.array(y_all)
+        TRAIN_SIZE = max(int(len(X) * 0.5), 50)
+        STEP_SIZE = max(int(len(X) * 0.1), 10)
+
+        yearly: dict[int, dict] = {}
+        capital = float(self.initial_capital)
+        peak = capital
+        max_dd = 0.0
+        total_bars = 0
+        all_t = all_w = 0
+
+        start = 0
+        while start + TRAIN_SIZE + STEP_SIZE <= len(X):
+            train_end = start + TRAIN_SIZE
+            test_end = min(train_end + STEP_SIZE, len(X))
+            X_tr, y_tr = X[start:train_end], y[start:train_end]
+            X_te = X[train_end:test_end]
+
+            if len(np.unique(y_tr)) < 2:
+                start += STEP_SIZE
+                continue
+
+            scaler = StandardScaler()
+            X_tr_s = scaler.fit_transform(X_tr)
+            X_te_s = scaler.transform(X_te)
+
+            model = GradientBoostingClassifier(
+                n_estimators=150, max_depth=4, min_samples_leaf=10,
+                learning_rate=0.05, subsample=0.8, random_state=42,
+            )
+            model.fit(X_tr_s, y_tr)
+            up_idx = list(model.classes_).index(1) if 1 in model.classes_ else -1
+            if up_idx < 0:
+                start += STEP_SIZE
+                continue
+
+            for j in range(len(X_te)):
+                proba = model.predict_proba(X_te_s[j:j+1])[0]
+                p_up = proba[up_idx]
+                ev = ev_all[train_end + j]
+                i = ev["idx"]
+                actual_ret = (close[i + brk - 1] - close[i - 1]) / close[i - 1]
+
+                if p_up >= ml_thr:
+                    direction = 1
+                elif p_up <= (1 - ml_thr):
+                    direction = -1
+                else:
+                    continue
+
+                is_correct = (direction == 1 and actual_ret > 0) or (direction == -1 and actual_ret < 0)
+                trade_ret = actual_ret * direction
+                net = trade_ret * lev - self.fee_ml * 2 * lev
+                capital += capital * pos * net
+                capital = max(capital, 10)
+                if capital > peak:
+                    peak = capital
+                dd = (peak - capital) / peak
+                max_dd = max(max_dd, dd)
+                total_bars += brk
+
+                all_t += 1
+                if is_correct:
+                    all_w += 1
+
+                year = ts.iloc[i].year
+                if year not in yearly:
+                    yearly[year] = {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnl": 0.0}
+                yearly[year]["t"] += 1
+                if is_correct:
+                    yearly[year]["w"] += 1
+                yearly[year]["pnl"] += net * self.initial_capital
+
+            start += STEP_SIZE
+
+        if all_t == 0:
+            return None
+
+        yearly_stats = [
+            YearlyStats(year=y, trades=d["t"], wins=d["w"], pnl=d["pnl"])
+            for y, d in sorted(yearly.items())
+        ]
+
+        return BacktestResult(
+            strategy_name=self.name,
+            asset=asset,
+            timeframe=tf,
+            params={"bb_w": bb_w, "sq_thr": sq_thr, "ml_thr": ml_thr,
+                    "brk": brk, "lev": lev, "pos": pos},
+            trades=all_t,
+            wins=all_w,
+            pnl=sum(d["pnl"] for d in yearly.values()),
+            capital=capital,
+            initial_capital=self.initial_capital,
+            max_dd=max_dd * 100,
+            time_in_market_pct=total_bars / n * 100,
+            avg_trade_duration_h=brk * TF_MINUTES.get(tf, 60) / 60,
+            years_active=len(yearly),
+            yearly=yearly_stats,
+        )
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = SqueezeGBM()
+    print("Training ML models...\n")
+    results = []
+    for asset in ["ETH", "BTC"]:
+        for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
+            for ml_thr in [0.65, 0.70]:
+                r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, ml_threshold=ml_thr)
+                if r and r.trades >= 20:
+                    r.strategy_name = f"ML01 {asset} {tf} ml={ml_thr}"
+                    results.append(r)
+    results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
+
+    print(f"{'=' * 120}")
+    print(f"  ML01 SQUEEZE+GBM — RISULTATI")
+    print(f"{'=' * 120}")
+    for r in results:
+        r.print_summary()
+    if results:
+        results[0].print_yearly()

scripts/waste/MT01_squeeze_mtf_momentum.py

@@ -0,0 +1,261 @@
+"""MT01 — Squeeze + Multi-Timeframe Momentum.
+
+Problema SQ02: entra al breakout 15m ma non sa se il trend 1h è allineato.
+Soluzione: squeeze su 15m + conferma momentum su 1h.
+
+Anti-overfitting: usa solo 2 indicatori (squeeze + EMA slope),
+nessun parametro complesso.
+
+IN:
+    - OHLCV 15m + 1h per lo stesso asset
+    - Parametri: sq_threshold, ema_period_1h, min_slope
+
+OUT:
+    - Signal al breakout 15m confermato da trend 1h
+    - BacktestResult
+
+Logica:
+    1. Squeeze release su 15m (come SQ01)
+    2. Antifakeout filter (come SQ02)
+    3. Check 1h: EMA slope positiva per long, negativa per short
+    4. Check 1h: prezzo sopra/sotto EMA per conferma trend
+    5. Entra solo se 15m e 1h concordano
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats, TF_MINUTES
+from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes, ema
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+
+
+class SqueezeMTFMomentum(Strategy):
+    name = "MT01_squeeze_mtf"
+    description = "Squeeze 15m + momentum trend 1h — multi-timeframe"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m"]
+    fee_rt = 0.002
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
+        """Genera segnali squeeze 15m confermati da trend 1h."""
+        c = df["close"].values
+        h = df["high"].values
+        l = df["low"].values
+        v = df["volume"].values
+        n = len(c)
+
+        asset = params.get("asset", "BTC")
+        sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
+        ema_period = params.get("ema_period", 50)
+        min_slope_val = params.get("min_slope", 0.001)
+        use_antifake = params.get("antifake", True)
+        use_vol = params.get("vol_filter", False)
+
+        kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, 14)
+        events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr, sq_thr)
+
+        df_1h = params.get("df_1h")
+        if df_1h is None:
+            df_1h = load_data(asset, "1h")
+        c1h = df_1h["close"].values
+        ts1h_ms = df_1h["timestamp"].values
+        n1h = len(c1h)
+        ema_1h = ema(c1h, ema_period)
+        ema_slope_arr = np.full(n1h, np.nan)
+        for i in range(5, n1h):
+            if not np.isnan(ema_1h[i]) and not np.isnan(ema_1h[i-5]) and ema_1h[i-5] > 0:
+                ema_slope_arr[i] = (ema_1h[i] - ema_1h[i-5]) / ema_1h[i-5]
+
+        ts_ms = df["timestamp"].values
+        signals = []
+
+        for ev in events:
+            i = ev["idx"]
+            if i < 1 or i >= n:
+                continue
+            first_ret = (c[i] - c[i-1]) / c[i-1] if c[i-1] > 0 else 0
+            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+                continue
+            if use_antifake:
+                br = h[i] - l[i]
+                if br > 0:
+                    if c[i] > c[i-1] and (h[i] - c[i]) / br > 0.6:
+                        continue
+                    elif c[i] <= c[i-1] and (c[i] - l[i]) / br > 0.6:
+                        continue
+            if use_vol:
+                avg_v = np.mean(v[ev["sq_start"]:i])
+                if avg_v > 0 and v[i] <= avg_v * 1.3:
+                    continue
+
+            direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
+            i1h = np.searchsorted(ts1h_ms, ts_ms[i]) - 1
+            if i1h < ema_period or i1h >= n1h:
+                continue
+            if np.isnan(ema_1h[i1h]) or np.isnan(ema_slope_arr[i1h]):
+                continue
+            if direction == 1:
+                if c1h[i1h] < ema_1h[i1h] or ema_slope_arr[i1h] < min_slope_val:
+                    continue
+            else:
+                if c1h[i1h] > ema_1h[i1h] or ema_slope_arr[i1h] > -min_slope_val:
+                    continue
+
+            signals.append(Signal(idx=i, direction=direction, entry_price=c[i-1]))
+
+        return signals
+
+    def backtest(self, asset, tf="15m", hold=3, **params):
+        sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
+        ema_period = params.get("ema_period", 50)
+        min_slope = params.get("min_slope", 0.001)
+        use_antifake = params.get("antifake", True)
+        use_vol = params.get("vol_filter", False)
+
+        # Carica 15m e 1h
+        df_15m = load_data(asset, "15m")
+        df_1h = load_data(asset, "1h")
+
+        c15 = df_15m["close"].values
+        h15 = df_15m["high"].values
+        l15 = df_15m["low"].values
+        v15 = df_15m["volume"].values
+        n15 = len(c15)
+        ts15 = pd.to_datetime(df_15m["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+        ts15_ms = df_15m["timestamp"].values
+
+        c1h = df_1h["close"].values
+        ts1h_ms = df_1h["timestamp"].values
+        n1h = len(c1h)
+
+        kcr = keltner_ratio(c15, h15, l15, 14)
+        events = detect_squeezes(c15, h15, l15, kcr, sq_thr)
+
+        # EMA su 1h
+        ema_1h = ema(c1h, ema_period)
+
+        # EMA slope (variazione percentuale su 5 barre)
+        ema_slope = np.full(n1h, np.nan)
+        for i in range(5, n1h):
+            if not np.isnan(ema_1h[i]) and not np.isnan(ema_1h[i - 5]) and ema_1h[i - 5] > 0:
+                ema_slope[i] = (ema_1h[i] - ema_1h[i - 5]) / ema_1h[i - 5]
+
+        yearly = {}
+        capital = float(self.initial_capital)
+        peak = capital
+        max_dd = 0.0
+        total_bars = 0
+
+        for ev in events:
+            i = ev["idx"]
+            if i + hold + 1 >= n15 or i < 1:
+                continue
+
+            first_ret = (c15[i] - c15[i - 1]) / c15[i - 1] if c15[i - 1] > 0 else 0
+            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+                continue
+
+            # Antifake
+            if use_antifake:
+                br = h15[i] - l15[i]
+                if br > 0:
+                    if c15[i] > c15[i - 1] and (h15[i] - c15[i]) / br > 0.6:
+                        continue
+                    elif c15[i] <= c15[i - 1] and (c15[i] - l15[i]) / br > 0.6:
+                        continue
+
+            # Volume filter
+            if use_vol:
+                avg_v = np.mean(v15[ev["sq_start"]:i])
+                if avg_v > 0 and v15[i] <= avg_v * 1.3:
+                    continue
+
+            direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
+
+            # Trova indice 1h corrispondente
+            i1h = np.searchsorted(ts1h_ms, ts15_ms[i]) - 1
+            if i1h < ema_period or i1h >= n1h or np.isnan(ema_1h[i1h]) or np.isnan(ema_slope[i1h]):
+                continue
+
+            # Conferma trend 1h
+            if direction == 1:
+                if c1h[i1h] < ema_1h[i1h]:
+                    continue
+                if ema_slope[i1h] < min_slope:
+                    continue
+            else:
+                if c1h[i1h] > ema_1h[i1h]:
+                    continue
+                if ema_slope[i1h] > -min_slope:
+                    continue
+
+            entry = c15[i - 1]
+            exit_price = c15[min(i + hold - 1, n15 - 1)]
+            actual = (exit_price - entry) / entry * direction
+            net = actual * self.leverage - self.fee_rt * self.leverage
+
+            capital += capital * self.position_size * net
+            capital = max(capital, 10)
+            if capital > peak: peak = capital
+            dd = (peak - capital) / peak
+            max_dd = max(max_dd, dd)
+            total_bars += hold
+
+            year = ts15.iloc[i].year
+            if year not in yearly:
+                yearly[year] = {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnl": 0.0}
+            yearly[year]["t"] += 1
+            if actual > 0: yearly[year]["w"] += 1
+            yearly[year]["pnl"] += net * self.initial_capital
+
+        all_t = sum(d["t"] for d in yearly.values())
+        all_w = sum(d["w"] for d in yearly.values())
+        if all_t == 0:
+            return None
+
+        yearly_stats = [YearlyStats(y, d["t"], d["w"], d["pnl"]) for y, d in sorted(yearly.items())]
+        return BacktestResult(
+            strategy_name=self.name, asset=asset, timeframe="15m", params=params,
+            trades=all_t, wins=all_w, pnl=sum(d["pnl"] for d in yearly.values()),
+            capital=capital, initial_capital=self.initial_capital,
+            max_dd=max_dd * 100, time_in_market_pct=total_bars / n15 * 100,
+            avg_trade_duration_h=hold * 15 / 60, years_active=len(yearly), yearly=yearly_stats,
+        )
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = SqueezeMTFMomentum()
+
+    configs = [
+        ("ema50 sl0.1%", {"ema_period": 50, "min_slope": 0.001}),
+        ("ema50 sl0.05%", {"ema_period": 50, "min_slope": 0.0005}),
+        ("ema50 sl0.2%", {"ema_period": 50, "min_slope": 0.002}),
+        ("ema20 sl0.1%", {"ema_period": 20, "min_slope": 0.001}),
+        ("ema50 sl0.1%+vol", {"ema_period": 50, "min_slope": 0.001, "vol_filter": True}),
+        ("ema20 sl0.1%+vol", {"ema_period": 20, "min_slope": 0.001, "vol_filter": True}),
+        ("ema50 noAF", {"ema_period": 50, "min_slope": 0.001, "antifake": False}),
+        ("ema100 sl0.05%", {"ema_period": 100, "min_slope": 0.0005}),
+    ]
+
+    all_results = []
+    for label, params in configs:
+        for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+            for hold in [3, 6]:
+                r = strategy.backtest(asset, "15m", hold=hold, **params)
+                if r and r.trades >= 30:
+                    r.strategy_name = f"MT01 {label} h={hold}"
+                    all_results.append(r)
+
+    all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 130}")
+    print(f"  MT01 SQUEEZE + MTF MOMENTUM — TOP 20")
+    print(f"{'=' * 130}")
+    for r in all_results[:20]:
+        r.print_summary()
+    if all_results:
+        all_results[0].print_yearly()
+
+    print(f"\n  BENCHMARK SQ02: 79.7% acc, 1250t, DD 6.5%, 9 anni, €5.23/day")

scripts/waste/PD01_price_volume_divergence.py

@@ -0,0 +1,158 @@
+"""PD01 — Price-Volume Divergence Squeeze.
+
+Estende SQ02 con volume TREND come filtro:
+  - Breakout UP con volume CRESCENTE (ultimi 3 bar vs media squeeze) → ENTRA
+  - Breakout UP con volume CALANTE → SALTA (divergenza bearish)
+  - Viceversa per short
+
+Logica anti-fakeout:
+  1. Squeeze rilascio (come SQ02)
+  2. Anti-fakeout candela (come SQ02)
+  3. Volume al breakout > media squeeze (come SQ02)
+  4. NUOVO: volume trending UP nelle ultime 3 barre prima del breakout
+
+Parametri semplici, nessun overfitting.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
+from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes
+
+
+class PriceVolumeDivergence(Strategy):
+    name = "PD01_price_vol_div"
+    description = "Squeeze + antifakeout + volume trend confirmation"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
+    fee_rt = 0.002
+    leverage = 3.0
+    position_size = 0.15
+    initial_capital = 1000.0
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
+                         **params) -> list[Signal]:
+        c = df["close"].values
+        h = df["high"].values
+        l = df["low"].values
+        v = df["volume"].values
+        n = len(c)
+
+        bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
+        sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
+        retrace_limit = params.get("retrace_limit", 0.6)
+        vol_mult = params.get("vol_multiplier", 1.3)
+        vol_trend_bars = params.get("vol_trend_bars", 3)  # barre per trend volume
+
+        kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, bb_w)
+        events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr, sq_thr)
+
+        signals = []
+        for ev in events:
+            i = ev["idx"]
+            if i < vol_trend_bars + 1 or i >= n:
+                continue
+
+            # Direzione breakout
+            first_ret = (c[i] - c[i - 1]) / c[i - 1] if c[i - 1] > 0 else 0
+            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+                continue
+            direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
+
+            # Anti-fakeout
+            br = h[i] - l[i]
+            if br > 0:
+                if direction == 1 and (h[i] - c[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
+                    continue
+                elif direction == -1 and (c[i] - l[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
+                    continue
+
+            # Volume al breakout > media squeeze
+            sq_start = ev["sq_start"]
+            avg_sq_v = np.mean(v[sq_start:i])
+            if avg_sq_v <= 0 or v[i] <= avg_sq_v * vol_mult:
+                continue
+
+            # Volume TREND: slope delle ultime vol_trend_bars barre
+            # Usa regressione lineare semplice (rank correlation del volume)
+            recent_v = v[i - vol_trend_bars:i + 1]  # include breakout bar
+            if len(recent_v) < vol_trend_bars:
+                continue
+            # slope: media seconda metà vs prima metà
+            mid = len(recent_v) // 2
+            v_early = np.mean(recent_v[:mid])
+            v_late = np.mean(recent_v[mid:])
+            vol_trending_up = v_late > v_early
+            vol_trending_down = v_early > v_late
+
+            # Concordanza: long richiede volume trending up, short trending down
+            if direction == 1 and not vol_trending_up:
+                continue
+            if direction == -1 and not vol_trending_down:
+                continue
+
+            signals.append(Signal(
+                idx=i,
+                direction=direction,
+                entry_price=c[i - 1],
+                metadata={
+                    "dur": ev["dur"],
+                    "vol_ratio": v[i] / avg_sq_v if avg_sq_v > 0 else 0,
+                    "vol_trend": v_late / v_early if v_early > 0 else 1,
+                },
+            ))
+        return signals
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = PriceVolumeDivergence()
+
+    configs = [
+        {"bb_window": 14, "sq_threshold": 0.8, "retrace_limit": 0.6,
+         "vol_multiplier": 1.3, "vol_trend_bars": 3},
+        {"bb_window": 14, "sq_threshold": 0.8, "retrace_limit": 0.6,
+         "vol_multiplier": 1.2, "vol_trend_bars": 3},
+        {"bb_window": 14, "sq_threshold": 0.8, "retrace_limit": 0.6,
+         "vol_multiplier": 1.3, "vol_trend_bars": 5},
+        {"bb_window": 14, "sq_threshold": 0.8, "retrace_limit": 0.5,
+         "vol_multiplier": 1.3, "vol_trend_bars": 3},
+        {"bb_window": 14, "sq_threshold": 0.75, "retrace_limit": 0.6,
+         "vol_multiplier": 1.3, "vol_trend_bars": 3},
+        {"bb_window": 20, "sq_threshold": 0.8, "retrace_limit": 0.6,
+         "vol_multiplier": 1.3, "vol_trend_bars": 3},
+    ]
+
+    all_results = []
+    for cfg in configs:
+        for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+            for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
+                for hold in [3, 6]:
+                    r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **cfg)
+                    if r and r.trades >= 20:
+                        lbl = (f"PD01 vtb={cfg['vol_trend_bars']} "
+                               f"vm={cfg['vol_multiplier']} "
+                               f"sq={cfg['sq_threshold']} h={hold}")
+                        r.strategy_name = lbl
+                        all_results.append(r)
+
+    all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
+
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 130}")
+    print("  PD01 PRICE-VOLUME DIVERGENCE — TOP 20")
+    print(f"{'=' * 130}")
+    print(f"  {'Nome':<50s} {'A/T':>7s} {'Trades':>6s} {'Acc':>6s} "
+          f"{'PnL€':>10s} {'DD%':>6s} {'€/day':>7s} "
+          f"{'Mkt%':>5s} {'Dur':>5s} {'Anni':>4s}")
+    print(f"  {'─' * 120}")
+    for r in all_results[:20]:
+        r.print_summary()
+
+    if all_results:
+        all_results[0].print_yearly()
+
+    print(f"\n  BENCHMARK SQ02: 79.7% acc, 1250t, DD 6.5%, €5.23/day, 9 anni")
+    print(f"  BENCHMARK MT01: 82.7% acc, 503t, DD 5.9%")

scripts/waste/REF_s3_01_squeeze_improved.py

@@ -0,0 +1,317 @@
+"""S3-01: Squeeze Migliorato — test per-anno, dati reali.
+Miglioramenti rispetto al squeeze base:
+1. Cross-asset: squeeze su BTC + ETH contemporaneo = segnale più forte
+2. Timing orario: accuracy per fascia oraria
+3. Squeeze duration weighted: squeeze lunghi → breakout più forti
+4. Dual-timeframe: squeeze su 1h confermato da 15m
+5. Anti-fakeout: skip se candela post-breakout ritraccia >50%
+6. Dynamic exit: trailing stop basato su ATR
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+
+FEE_RT = 0.002
+INITIAL = 1000
+LEVERAGE = 3
+
+
+def keltner_ratio(close, high, low, window=14):
+    n = len(close)
+    r = np.full(n, np.nan)
+    for i in range(window, n):
+        wc, wh, wl = close[i-window:i], high[i-window:i], low[i-window:i]
+        ma = np.mean(wc)
+        bb_std = np.std(wc)
+        tr = np.maximum(wh-wl, np.maximum(np.abs(wh-np.roll(wc,1)), np.abs(wl-np.roll(wc,1))))
+        atr = np.mean(tr[1:])
+        kc = (ma+1.5*atr)-(ma-1.5*atr)
+        bb = (ma+2*bb_std)-(ma-2*bb_std)
+        if kc > 0:
+            r[i] = bb/kc
+    return r
+
+
+def atr_calc(high, low, close, period=14):
+    tr = np.maximum(high-low, np.maximum(np.abs(high-np.roll(close,1)), np.abs(low-np.roll(close,1))))
+    tr[0] = high[0]-low[0]
+    r = np.full(len(close), np.nan)
+    r[period-1] = np.mean(tr[:period])
+    k = 2/(period+1)
+    for i in range(period, len(close)):
+        r[i] = tr[i]*k + r[i-1]*(1-k)
+    return r
+
+
+def detect_squeezes(close, high, low, volume, kcr, sq_thr=0.8, min_dur=5):
+    """Ritorna lista di squeeze events con metadata."""
+    events = []
+    in_sq = False
+    sq_start = 0
+    n = len(close)
+
+    for i in range(1, n):
+        if np.isnan(kcr[i]):
+            continue
+        is_sq = kcr[i] < sq_thr
+        if is_sq and not in_sq:
+            in_sq = True
+            sq_start = i
+        elif not is_sq and in_sq:
+            in_sq = False
+            dur = i - sq_start
+            if dur < min_dur:
+                continue
+            avg_vol = np.mean(volume[sq_start:i])
+            # Range durante squeeze
+            sq_range = (np.max(high[sq_start:i]) - np.min(low[sq_start:i])) / close[sq_start] if close[sq_start] > 0 else 0
+            events.append({
+                "release_idx": i,
+                "duration": dur,
+                "avg_vol": avg_vol,
+                "squeeze_range": sq_range,
+                "kcr_at_release": kcr[i],
+            })
+    return events
+
+
+def run_improved_squeeze(primary_asset, tf="1h"):
+    # Carica asset primario
+    df = load_data(primary_asset, tf)
+    c, h, l, v = df["close"].values, df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["volume"].values
+    n = len(df)
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    ts_ms = df["timestamp"].values
+
+    kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, 14)
+    atr_14 = atr_calc(h, l, c, 14)
+    events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, v, kcr)
+
+    # Carica asset secondario per cross-check
+    secondary = "BTC" if primary_asset == "ETH" else "ETH"
+    df2 = load_data(secondary, tf)
+    c2, h2, l2 = df2["close"].values, df2["high"].values, df2["low"].values
+    ts2_ms = df2["timestamp"].values
+    kcr2 = keltner_ratio(c2, h2, l2, 14)
+
+    # Mappa ts2 → indici per allineare
+    def find_idx2(ts_val):
+        idx = np.searchsorted(ts2_ms, ts_val)
+        return min(idx, len(c2)-1)
+
+    # Carica 15m per dual-TF
+    if tf == "1h":
+        df_15m = load_data(primary_asset, "15m")
+        c15 = df_15m["close"].values
+        h15 = df_15m["high"].values
+        l15 = df_15m["low"].values
+        ts15 = df_15m["timestamp"].values
+        kcr_15m = keltner_ratio(c15, h15, l15, 14)
+    else:
+        kcr_15m = None
+        ts15 = None
+
+    # ================================================================
+    #  CONFIGURAZIONI
+    # ================================================================
+    configs = [
+        # (name, use_cross, use_timing, use_duration, use_dual_tf, use_antifake, use_trailing, hold, stop_atr)
+        ("BASE",                False, False, False, False, False, False, 3, 0),
+        ("cross_asset",         True,  False, False, False, False, False, 3, 0),
+        ("timing_filter",       False, True,  False, False, False, False, 3, 0),
+        ("long_squeeze",        False, False, True,  False, False, False, 3, 0),
+        ("dual_tf",             False, False, False, True,  False, False, 3, 0),
+        ("anti_fakeout",        False, False, False, False, True,  False, 3, 0),
+        ("trailing_stop",       False, False, False, False, False, True,  6, 1.5),
+        ("cross+timing",        True,  True,  False, False, False, False, 3, 0),
+        ("cross+long+timing",   True,  True,  True,  False, False, False, 3, 0),
+        ("cross+dual_tf",       True,  False, False, True,  False, False, 3, 0),
+        ("ALL_FILTERS",         True,  True,  True,  True,  True,  False, 3, 0),
+        ("ALL+trailing",        True,  True,  True,  True,  True,  True,  6, 1.5),
+        ("cross+antifake",      True,  False, False, False, True,  False, 3, 0),
+        ("timing+antifake",     False, True,  False, False, True,  False, 3, 0),
+        ("cross+timing+antifk", True,  True,  False, False, True,  False, 3, 0),
+        ("cross+timing+trail",  True,  True,  False, False, False, True,  6, 1.5),
+    ]
+
+    print(f"\n{'#'*75}")
+    print(f"  {primary_asset} {tf} — SQUEEZE MIGLIORATO")
+    print(f"{'#'*75}")
+
+    results = []
+
+    for name, f_cross, f_timing, f_dur, f_dual, f_antifake, f_trail, hold, stop_atr_m in configs:
+        yearly = {}
+        capital = float(INITIAL)
+        peak = capital
+        max_dd = 0
+
+        for ev in events:
+            i = ev["release_idx"]
+            if i + hold + 2 >= n:
+                continue
+
+            # --- FILTRI ---
+            skip = False
+
+            # Cross-asset: secondary deve anche essere in squeeze recente o breakout
+            if f_cross:
+                i2 = find_idx2(ts_ms[i])
+                if i2 >= 5:
+                    sec_in_squeeze = any(not np.isnan(kcr2[j]) and kcr2[j] < 0.85 for j in range(max(0,i2-10), i2+1))
+                    if not sec_in_squeeze:
+                        skip = True
+
+            # Timing: solo certe ore (testato: 6-14 UTC migliori)
+            if f_timing:
+                hour = ts.iloc[i].hour
+                if hour < 4 or hour > 16:
+                    skip = True
+
+            # Duration: solo squeeze > 10 barre
+            if f_dur:
+                if ev["duration"] < 10:
+                    skip = True
+
+            # Dual-TF: squeeze anche su 15m
+            if f_dual and kcr_15m is not None and ts15 is not None:
+                i15 = np.searchsorted(ts15, ts_ms[i])
+                if i15 >= 5:
+                    sq_15m = any(not np.isnan(kcr_15m[j]) and kcr_15m[j] < 0.85 for j in range(max(0,i15-20), i15+1))
+                    if not sq_15m:
+                        skip = True
+
+            # Anti-fakeout: prima candela post-breakout non deve ritracciare >50%
+            if f_antifake and i + 1 < n:
+                breakout_bar_range = h[i] - l[i]
+                if breakout_bar_range > 0:
+                    if c[i] > c[i-1]:  # breakout up
+                        retrace = (h[i] - c[i]) / breakout_bar_range
+                    else:  # breakout down
+                        retrace = (c[i] - l[i]) / breakout_bar_range
+                    if retrace > 0.6:
+                        skip = True
+
+            if skip:
+                continue
+
+            # --- DIREZIONE ---
+            first_ret = (c[i] - c[i-1]) / c[i-1]
+            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+                continue
+            direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
+
+            # --- EXIT ---
+            entry = c[i-1]
+            if f_trail and not np.isnan(atr_14[i]):
+                # Trailing stop
+                trail_dist = atr_14[i] * stop_atr_m
+                best_price = entry
+                exit_price = c[min(i+hold, n-1)]
+                for j in range(i, min(i+hold+1, n)):
+                    if direction == 1:
+                        best_price = max(best_price, h[j])
+                        if l[j] <= best_price - trail_dist:
+                            exit_price = best_price - trail_dist
+                            break
+                    else:
+                        best_price = min(best_price, l[j])
+                        if h[j] >= best_price + trail_dist:
+                            exit_price = best_price + trail_dist
+                            break
+                    exit_price = c[j]
+            else:
+                exit_price = c[min(i+hold-1, n-1)]
+
+            actual = (exit_price - entry) / entry * direction
+            net = actual * LEVERAGE - FEE_RT * LEVERAGE
+
+            capital += capital * 0.15 * net
+            capital = max(capital, 10)
+            if capital > peak: peak = capital
+            dd = (peak - capital) / peak
+            max_dd = max(max_dd, dd)
+
+            year = ts.iloc[i].year
+            if year not in yearly:
+                yearly[year] = {"wins": 0, "total": 0, "pnls": []}
+            yearly[year]["total"] += 1
+            if actual > 0:
+                yearly[year]["wins"] += 1
+            yearly[year]["pnls"].append(net * INITIAL)
+
+        all_t = sum(d["total"] for d in yearly.values())
+        all_w = sum(d["wins"] for d in yearly.values())
+        if all_t < 30:
+            continue
+
+        acc = all_w / all_t * 100
+        all_pnls = [p for d in yearly.values() for p in d["pnls"]]
+        tot_pnl = sum(all_pnls)
+
+        # Worst year
+        worst_y_acc = 100
+        worst_y = ""
+        for y, d in yearly.items():
+            ya = d["wins"]/d["total"]*100 if d["total"] > 0 else 0
+            if ya < worst_y_acc:
+                worst_y_acc = ya
+                worst_y = str(y)
+
+        results.append({
+            "name": name, "trades": all_t, "acc": acc, "pnl": tot_pnl,
+            "max_dd": max_dd*100, "capital": capital,
+            "worst": f"{worst_y}({worst_y_acc:.0f}%)",
+            "yearly": yearly,
+        })
+
+    # Sort by accuracy
+    results.sort(key=lambda x: x["acc"], reverse=True)
+
+    print(f"\n  {'Name':.<26s} {'Trades':>7s} {'Acc':>6s} {'PnL€':>9s} {'DD%':>6s} {'Capital':>10s} {'Worst':>12s}")
+    print(f"  {'-'*80}")
+    for r in results:
+        tag = "✅✅" if r["acc"] >= 80 else "✅" if r["acc"] >= 76 else ""
+        print(f"  {r['name']:.<26s} {r['trades']:>7d} {r['acc']:>5.1f}% €{r['pnl']:>+8.0f} {r['max_dd']:>5.1f}% €{r['capital']:>9,.0f} {r['worst']:>12s} {tag}")
+
+    # Dettaglio per anno del migliore
+    if results:
+        best = results[0]
+        print(f"\n  MIGLIORE: {best['name']} → {best['acc']:.1f}% acc")
+        print(f"  {'Anno':>6s} {'Trades':>7s} {'Acc':>6s} {'PnL€':>9s}")
+        for y in sorted(best["yearly"]):
+            d = best["yearly"][y]
+            ya = d["wins"]/d["total"]*100 if d["total"] > 0 else 0
+            yp = sum(d["pnls"])
+            tag = " ← CRASH" if y in [2020,2021,2022] else ""
+            print(f"  {y:>6d} {d['total']:>7d} {ya:>5.1f}% €{yp:>+8.0f}{tag}")
+
+    return results
+
+
+# Run su entrambi gli asset e timeframe
+all_results = {}
+for asset in ["ETH", "BTC"]:
+    for tf in ["1h", "15m"]:
+        key = f"{asset}_{tf}"
+        all_results[key] = run_improved_squeeze(asset, tf)
+
+# Classifica globale
+print(f"\n\n{'='*75}")
+print(f"  CLASSIFICA GLOBALE — TOP 15")
+print(f"{'='*75}")
+
+global_list = []
+for key, results in all_results.items():
+    for r in results:
+        global_list.append({**r, "asset_tf": key})
+
+global_list.sort(key=lambda x: x["acc"], reverse=True)
+print(f"\n  {'Asset_TF':.<12s} {'Name':.<26s} {'Trades':>6s} {'Acc':>6s} {'PnL€':>9s} {'DD%':>5s} {'Worst':>12s}")
+for r in global_list[:15]:
+    tag = "✅✅" if r["acc"] >= 80 else "✅" if r["acc"] >= 76 else ""
+    print(f"  {r['asset_tf']:.<12s} {r['name']:.<26s} {r['trades']:>6d} {r['acc']:>5.1f}% €{r['pnl']:>+8.0f} {r['max_dd']:>4.1f}% {r['worst']:>12s} {tag}")

scripts/waste/REF_s3_02_lead_lag.py

@@ -0,0 +1,290 @@
+"""S3-02: Lead-lag multi-asset squeeze.
+Quando BTC fa squeeze breakout, ETH/SOL spesso seguono.
+Usa il breakout di BTC per anticipare entrata su ETH (e viceversa).
+Testa anche correlazione inter-asset per conferma segnale.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+
+FEE_RT = 0.002
+INITIAL = 1000
+LEVERAGE = 3
+
+
+def keltner_ratio(close, high, low, window=14):
+    n = len(close)
+    r = np.full(n, np.nan)
+    for i in range(window, n):
+        wc, wh, wl = close[i-window:i], high[i-window:i], low[i-window:i]
+        ma = np.mean(wc)
+        bb_std = np.std(wc)
+        tr = np.maximum(wh-wl, np.maximum(np.abs(wh-np.roll(wc,1)), np.abs(wl-np.roll(wc,1))))
+        atr = np.mean(tr[1:])
+        kc = (ma+1.5*atr)-(ma-1.5*atr)
+        bb = (ma+2*bb_std)-(ma-2*bb_std)
+        if kc > 0: r[i] = bb/kc
+    return r
+
+
+def load_aligned(assets, tf):
+    """Carica e allinea dati multi-asset per timestamp."""
+    dfs = {}
+    for asset in assets:
+        try:
+            if asset == "SOL":
+                df = pd.read_parquet(f"data/raw/sol_{tf}.parquet")
+                df["datetime"] = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+            else:
+                df = load_data(asset, tf)
+            dfs[asset] = df
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+
+    if len(dfs) < 2:
+        return None
+
+    # Allinea per timestamp
+    common_ts = set(dfs[list(dfs.keys())[0]]["timestamp"].values)
+    for df in dfs.values():
+        common_ts &= set(df["timestamp"].values)
+    common_ts = sorted(common_ts)
+
+    aligned = {}
+    for asset, df in dfs.items():
+        mask = df["timestamp"].isin(common_ts)
+        aligned[asset] = df[mask].sort_values("timestamp").reset_index(drop=True)
+
+    return aligned
+
+
+def detect_breakouts(close, high, low, volume, kcr, sq_thr=0.8, min_dur=5):
+    """Detect squeeze breakout events."""
+    events = []
+    in_sq = False
+    sq_start = 0
+    for i in range(1, len(close)):
+        if np.isnan(kcr[i]):
+            continue
+        is_sq = kcr[i] < sq_thr
+        if is_sq and not in_sq:
+            in_sq = True
+            sq_start = i
+        elif not is_sq and in_sq:
+            in_sq = False
+            if i - sq_start < min_dur:
+                continue
+            first_ret = (close[i] - close[i-1]) / close[i-1] if close[i-1] > 0 else 0
+            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+                continue
+            events.append({
+                "idx": i,
+                "duration": i - sq_start,
+                "direction": 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1,
+                "first_ret": first_ret,
+            })
+    return events
+
+
+print("=" * 75)
+print("  S3-02: LEAD-LAG MULTI-ASSET SQUEEZE")
+print("=" * 75)
+
+for tf in ["1h", "15m"]:
+    aligned = load_aligned(["BTC", "ETH", "SOL"], tf)
+    if aligned is None:
+        continue
+
+    n = len(aligned["BTC"])
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(aligned["BTC"]["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+
+    print(f"\n  Timeframe: {tf}, Candles allineate: {n}")
+
+    # Calcola squeeze per ogni asset
+    asset_data = {}
+    for asset in aligned:
+        df = aligned[asset]
+        c, h, l, v = df["close"].values, df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["volume"].values
+        kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, 14)
+        events = detect_breakouts(c, h, l, v, kcr)
+        asset_data[asset] = {"close": c, "high": h, "low": l, "vol": v, "kcr": kcr, "events": events}
+        print(f"    {asset}: {len(events)} squeeze breakouts")
+
+    # ================================================================
+    #  STRATEGIA A: Leader-follower
+    #  Quando BTC fa breakout, entra su ETH/SOL nella stessa direzione
+    # ================================================================
+    print(f"\n  --- LEADER-FOLLOWER ({tf}) ---")
+
+    for leader, follower in [("BTC", "ETH"), ("BTC", "SOL"), ("ETH", "BTC"), ("ETH", "SOL")]:
+        if leader not in asset_data or follower not in asset_data:
+            continue
+
+        leader_events = asset_data[leader]["events"]
+        fc = asset_data[follower]["close"]
+
+        for hold in [3, 6]:
+            for delay in [0, 1, 2]:
+                yearly = {}
+
+                for ev in leader_events:
+                    i = ev["idx"] + delay
+                    if i + hold >= n:
+                        continue
+
+                    # Anti-fakeout su follower
+                    entry = fc[i]
+                    exit_price = fc[min(i + hold, n - 1)]
+                    direction = ev["direction"]
+                    actual = (exit_price - entry) / entry * direction
+                    net = actual * LEVERAGE - FEE_RT * LEVERAGE
+
+                    year = ts.iloc[min(i, n-1)].year
+                    if year not in yearly:
+                        yearly[year] = {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnls": []}
+                    yearly[year]["t"] += 1
+                    if actual > 0:
+                        yearly[year]["w"] += 1
+                    yearly[year]["pnls"].append(net * INITIAL)
+
+                all_t = sum(d["t"] for d in yearly.values())
+                all_w = sum(d["w"] for d in yearly.values())
+                if all_t < 30:
+                    continue
+                acc = all_w / all_t * 100
+                pnl = sum(p for d in yearly.values() for p in d["pnls"])
+                worst_y = min(yearly.items(), key=lambda x: x[1]["w"]/x[1]["t"] if x[1]["t"]>0 else 0)
+                worst_acc = worst_y[1]["w"]/worst_y[1]["t"]*100 if worst_y[1]["t"]>0 else 0
+                tag = "✅" if acc >= 76 else ""
+                print(f"    {leader}→{follower} d={delay} h={hold}: trades={all_t:5d} acc={acc:.1f}% pnl=€{pnl:+.0f} worst={worst_y[0]}({worst_acc:.0f}%) {tag}")
+
+    # ================================================================
+    #  STRATEGIA B: Consensus multi-asset
+    #  Trade solo quando 2+ asset hanno squeeze breakout nello stesso momento
+    # ================================================================
+    print(f"\n  --- CONSENSUS MULTI-ASSET ({tf}) ---")
+
+    # Build event map: timestamp → list of (asset, direction)
+    event_map = {}
+    for asset, data in asset_data.items():
+        for ev in data["events"]:
+            idx = ev["idx"]
+            if idx not in event_map:
+                event_map[idx] = []
+            event_map[idx].append((asset, ev["direction"]))
+
+    for target in ["BTC", "ETH", "SOL"]:
+        if target not in asset_data:
+            continue
+        tc = asset_data[target]["close"]
+
+        for min_consensus in [2, 3]:
+            for window_bars in [1, 3, 5]:
+                yearly = {}
+                daily_done = set()
+
+                for idx in sorted(event_map.keys()):
+                    if idx + 6 >= n:
+                        continue
+
+                    day = ts.iloc[idx].strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+                    if day in daily_done:
+                        continue
+
+                    # Count consensus within window
+                    nearby_events = []
+                    for j in range(max(0, idx - window_bars), idx + window_bars + 1):
+                        if j in event_map:
+                            nearby_events.extend(event_map[j])
+
+                    # Unique assets
+                    unique_assets = set(a for a, d in nearby_events)
+                    if len(unique_assets) < min_consensus:
+                        continue
+
+                    # Majority direction
+                    dirs = [d for a, d in nearby_events]
+                    majority = 1 if sum(dirs) > 0 else -1
+
+                    entry = tc[idx]
+                    exit_price = tc[min(idx + 3, n - 1)]
+                    actual = (exit_price - entry) / entry * majority
+                    net = actual * LEVERAGE - FEE_RT * LEVERAGE
+
+                    year = ts.iloc[idx].year
+                    if year not in yearly:
+                        yearly[year] = {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnls": []}
+                    yearly[year]["t"] += 1
+                    if actual > 0:
+                        yearly[year]["w"] += 1
+                    yearly[year]["pnls"].append(net * INITIAL)
+                    daily_done.add(day)
+
+                all_t = sum(d["t"] for d in yearly.values())
+                all_w = sum(d["w"] for d in yearly.values())
+                if all_t < 20:
+                    continue
+                acc = all_w / all_t * 100
+                pnl = sum(p for d in yearly.values() for p in d["pnls"])
+                tag = "✅" if acc >= 76 else ""
+                print(f"    {target} consensus>={min_consensus} w={window_bars}: trades={all_t:4d} acc={acc:.1f}% pnl=€{pnl:+.0f} {tag}")
+
+    # ================================================================
+    #  STRATEGIA C: Correlation-weighted squeeze
+    #  Peso il segnale squeeze in base alla correlazione rolling con BTC
+    # ================================================================
+    print(f"\n  --- CORRELATION-WEIGHTED ({tf}) ---")
+
+    for target in ["ETH", "SOL"]:
+        if target not in asset_data:
+            continue
+        tc = asset_data[target]["close"]
+        btc_c = asset_data["BTC"]["close"]
+
+        # Rolling correlation
+        corr_window = 48  # 48 bars
+        rolling_corr = np.full(n, np.nan)
+        ret_t = np.diff(np.log(np.where(tc == 0, 1e-10, tc)))
+        ret_b = np.diff(np.log(np.where(btc_c == 0, 1e-10, btc_c)))
+        for i in range(corr_window, len(ret_t)):
+            c_val = np.corrcoef(ret_t[i-corr_window:i], ret_b[i-corr_window:i])[0, 1]
+            rolling_corr[i + 1] = c_val if np.isfinite(c_val) else 0
+
+        events = asset_data[target]["events"]
+
+        for corr_thr in [0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8]:
+            yearly = {}
+            for ev in events:
+                i = ev["idx"]
+                if i + 3 >= n or np.isnan(rolling_corr[i]):
+                    continue
+
+                # Solo quando correlazione con BTC è alta
+                if abs(rolling_corr[i]) < corr_thr:
+                    continue
+
+                entry = tc[i - 1]
+                exit_price = tc[min(i + 2, n - 1)]
+                actual = (exit_price - entry) / entry * ev["direction"]
+                net = actual * LEVERAGE - FEE_RT * LEVERAGE
+
+                year = ts.iloc[i].year
+                if year not in yearly:
+                    yearly[year] = {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnls": []}
+                yearly[year]["t"] += 1
+                if actual > 0:
+                    yearly[year]["w"] += 1
+                yearly[year]["pnls"].append(net * INITIAL)
+
+            all_t = sum(d["t"] for d in yearly.values())
+            all_w = sum(d["w"] for d in yearly.values())
+            if all_t < 20:
+                continue
+            acc = all_w / all_t * 100
+            pnl = sum(p for d in yearly.values() for p in d["pnls"])
+            tag = "✅" if acc >= 76 else ""
+            print(f"    {target} corr>={corr_thr}: trades={all_t:4d} acc={acc:.1f}% pnl=€{pnl:+.0f} {tag}")

scripts/waste/REF_s3_03_ultimate.py

@@ -0,0 +1,256 @@
+"""S3-03: Ultimate Squeeze — combina TUTTI i filtri migliori.
+Filtri che funzionano (testati singolarmente):
+- Anti-fakeout (+1% acc)
+- Long squeeze duration (+1% acc)
+- Cross-asset squeeze simultaneo (+0.5%)
+- Timing 4-16 UTC (+0.5%)
+- Correlation ETH-BTC alta per ETH trades (+1%)
+- Volume confirmation al breakout
+
+Nuovi filtri da testare:
+- Volume delta: up_volume - down_volume al breakout
+- Momentum confirmation: breakout nella direzione del trend 1h
+- Volatility regime: skip in regime estremo (RV > 100%)
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+
+FEE_RT = 0.002
+INITIAL = 1000
+LEVERAGE = 3
+
+
+def keltner_ratio(close, high, low, window=14):
+    n = len(close)
+    r = np.full(n, np.nan)
+    for i in range(window, n):
+        wc, wh, wl = close[i-window:i], high[i-window:i], low[i-window:i]
+        ma = np.mean(wc)
+        bb_std = np.std(wc)
+        tr = np.maximum(wh-wl, np.maximum(np.abs(wh-np.roll(wc,1)), np.abs(wl-np.roll(wc,1))))
+        atr = np.mean(tr[1:])
+        kc = (ma+1.5*atr)-(ma-1.5*atr)
+        bb = (ma+2*bb_std)-(ma-2*bb_std)
+        if kc > 0: r[i] = bb/kc
+    return r
+
+
+def ema(arr, period):
+    r = np.full(len(arr), np.nan)
+    k = 2/(period+1)
+    r[period-1] = np.mean(arr[:period])
+    for i in range(period, len(arr)):
+        r[i] = arr[i]*k + r[i-1]*(1-k)
+    return r
+
+
+def rv_ann(close, window):
+    lr = np.diff(np.log(np.where(close == 0, 1e-10, close)))
+    r = np.full(len(close), np.nan)
+    for i in range(window, len(lr)):
+        r[i+1] = np.std(lr[i-window:i]) * np.sqrt(24*365)
+    return r
+
+
+def run_ultimate(primary, tf="15m"):
+    secondary = "ETH" if primary == "BTC" else "BTC"
+
+    df = load_data(primary, tf)
+    c, h, l, v = df["close"].values, df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["volume"].values
+    n = len(df)
+    ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+
+    df2 = load_data(secondary, tf)
+    c2, ts2 = df2["close"].values, df2["timestamp"].values
+
+    kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, 14)
+    kcr2 = keltner_ratio(c2, df2["high"].values, df2["low"].values, 14)
+
+    ema_50 = ema(c, 50)
+    rv_48 = rv_ann(c, 48)
+
+    # Rolling correlation
+    ret1 = np.diff(np.log(np.where(c == 0, 1e-10, c)))
+    ret2 = np.diff(np.log(np.where(c2[:len(c)] == 0, 1e-10, c2[:len(c)])))
+    min_len = min(len(ret1), len(ret2))
+    ret1 = ret1[:min_len]
+    ret2 = ret2[:min_len]
+    corr = np.full(n, np.nan)
+    for i in range(48, min_len):
+        cv = np.corrcoef(ret1[i-48:i], ret2[i-48:i])[0,1]
+        corr[i+1] = cv if np.isfinite(cv) else 0
+
+    # Detect squeezes
+    events = []
+    in_sq = False
+    sq_start = 0
+    for i in range(15, n):
+        if np.isnan(kcr[i]): continue
+        is_sq = kcr[i] < 0.8
+        if is_sq and not in_sq:
+            in_sq = True
+            sq_start = i
+        elif not is_sq and in_sq:
+            in_sq = False
+            dur = i - sq_start
+            if dur < 5 or i + 6 >= n:
+                continue
+            events.append({"idx": i, "dur": dur, "sq_start": sq_start})
+
+    print(f"\n{'#'*70}")
+    print(f"  {primary} {tf} — ULTIMATE SQUEEZE ({len(events)} squeeze events)")
+    print(f"{'#'*70}")
+
+    filters_map = {
+        "antifake": lambda ev, i: not _antifake(c, h, l, i),
+        "long_sq": lambda ev, i: ev["dur"] >= 10,
+        "timing": lambda ev, i: 4 <= ts.iloc[i].hour <= 16,
+        "cross": lambda ev, i: _cross_squeeze(kcr2, i, ts, ts2),
+        "corr_high": lambda ev, i: not np.isnan(corr[i]) and abs(corr[i]) >= 0.6,
+        "vol_confirm": lambda ev, i: _vol_confirm(v, i, ev["sq_start"]),
+        "trend_align": lambda ev, i: _trend_align(c, ema_50, i),
+        "low_rv": lambda ev, i: not np.isnan(rv_48[i]) and rv_48[i] < 1.5,
+    }
+
+    def _antifake(c, h, l, i):
+        if i + 1 >= len(c): return False
+        br = h[i] - l[i]
+        if br <= 0: return False
+        if c[i] > c[i-1]:
+            return (h[i] - c[i]) / br > 0.6
+        return (c[i] - l[i]) / br > 0.6
+
+    def _cross_squeeze(kcr2, i, ts1, ts2_arr):
+        i2 = np.searchsorted(ts2_arr, ts.values[i].astype("int64") // 10**6)
+        i2 = min(i2, len(kcr2)-1)
+        return any(not np.isnan(kcr2[j]) and kcr2[j] < 0.85 for j in range(max(0,i2-10), i2+1))
+
+    def _vol_confirm(v, i, sq_start):
+        avg = np.mean(v[sq_start:i])
+        return avg > 0 and v[i] > avg * 1.3
+
+    def _trend_align(c, ema_val, i):
+        if np.isnan(ema_val[i]): return True
+        first_ret = (c[i] - c[i-1]) / c[i-1] if c[i-1] > 0 else 0
+        if first_ret > 0:
+            return c[i] > ema_val[i]
+        return c[i] < ema_val[i]
+
+    # Test combinazioni incrementali
+    combos = [
+        ("BASE", []),
+        ("antifake", ["antifake"]),
+        ("long_sq", ["long_sq"]),
+        ("antifake+long", ["antifake", "long_sq"]),
+        ("antifake+timing", ["antifake", "timing"]),
+        ("antifake+cross", ["antifake", "cross"]),
+        ("antifake+corr", ["antifake", "corr_high"]),
+        ("antifake+vol", ["antifake", "vol_confirm"]),
+        ("antifake+trend", ["antifake", "trend_align"]),
+        ("af+long+timing", ["antifake", "long_sq", "timing"]),
+        ("af+long+cross", ["antifake", "long_sq", "cross"]),
+        ("af+long+corr", ["antifake", "long_sq", "corr_high"]),
+        ("af+long+trend", ["antifake", "long_sq", "trend_align"]),
+        ("af+long+cross+time", ["antifake", "long_sq", "cross", "timing"]),
+        ("af+long+corr+time", ["antifake", "long_sq", "corr_high", "timing"]),
+        ("af+long+corr+trend", ["antifake", "long_sq", "corr_high", "trend_align"]),
+        ("ALL_NO_VOL", ["antifake", "long_sq", "cross", "timing", "corr_high", "trend_align", "low_rv"]),
+        ("ALL", ["antifake", "long_sq", "cross", "timing", "corr_high", "vol_confirm", "trend_align", "low_rv"]),
+        ("BEST_5", ["antifake", "long_sq", "corr_high", "trend_align", "low_rv"]),
+    ]
+
+    results = []
+    for combo_name, filter_names in combos:
+        yearly = {}
+        capital = float(INITIAL)
+        peak = capital
+        max_dd = 0
+
+        for ev in events:
+            i = ev["idx"]
+            first_ret = (c[i] - c[i-1]) / c[i-1] if c[i-1] > 0 else 0
+            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+                continue
+
+            skip = False
+            for fn in filter_names:
+                if fn in filters_map and not filters_map[fn](ev, i):
+                    skip = True
+                    break
+            if skip:
+                continue
+
+            direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
+            entry = c[i-1]
+            exit_price = c[min(i+2, n-1)]
+            actual = (exit_price - entry) / entry * direction
+            net = actual * LEVERAGE - FEE_RT * LEVERAGE
+
+            capital += capital * 0.15 * net
+            capital = max(capital, 10)
+            if capital > peak: peak = capital
+            dd = (peak - capital) / peak
+            max_dd = max(max_dd, dd)
+
+            year = ts.iloc[i].year
+            if year not in yearly:
+                yearly[year] = {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnls": []}
+            yearly[year]["t"] += 1
+            if actual > 0: yearly[year]["w"] += 1
+            yearly[year]["pnls"].append(net * INITIAL)
+
+        all_t = sum(d["t"] for d in yearly.values())
+        all_w = sum(d["w"] for d in yearly.values())
+        if all_t < 20: continue
+
+        acc = all_w / all_t * 100
+        pnl = sum(p for d in yearly.values() for p in d["pnls"])
+        worst = min(yearly.items(), key=lambda x: x[1]["w"]/x[1]["t"] if x[1]["t"]>0 else 0)
+        wa = worst[1]["w"]/worst[1]["t"]*100 if worst[1]["t"]>0 else 0
+
+        results.append({
+            "name": combo_name, "trades": all_t, "acc": acc, "pnl": pnl,
+            "dd": max_dd*100, "capital": capital, "worst": f"{worst[0]}({wa:.0f}%)",
+            "yearly": yearly,
+        })
+
+    results.sort(key=lambda x: x["acc"], reverse=True)
+
+    print(f"\n  {'Name':.<28s} {'Trades':>6s} {'Acc':>6s} {'PnL€':>9s} {'DD%':>5s} {'Worst':>12s}")
+    print(f"  {'-'*70}")
+    for r in results[:20]:
+        tag = "✅✅" if r["acc"] >= 80 else "✅" if r["acc"] >= 78 else ""
+        print(f"  {r['name']:.<28s} {r['trades']:>6d} {r['acc']:>5.1f}% €{r['pnl']:>+8.0f} {r['dd']:>4.1f}% {r['worst']:>12s} {tag}")
+
+    # Dettaglio migliore
+    if results:
+        best = results[0]
+        print(f"\n  MIGLIORE: {best['name']} → {best['acc']:.1f}% acc, DD {best['dd']:.1f}%")
+        for y in sorted(best["yearly"]):
+            d = best["yearly"][y]
+            ya = d["w"]/d["t"]*100 if d["t"]>0 else 0
+            tag = " ← CRASH" if y in [2020,2021,2022] else ""
+            print(f"    {y}: {d['t']:4d}t {ya:5.1f}% €{sum(d['pnls']):+.0f}{tag}")
+
+    return results
+
+
+all_r = []
+for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+    for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
+        r = run_ultimate(asset, tf)
+        for x in r:
+            all_r.append({**x, "key": f"{asset}_{tf}"})
+
+all_r.sort(key=lambda x: x["acc"], reverse=True)
+print(f"\n\n{'='*70}")
+print(f"  TOP 10 GLOBALE")
+print(f"{'='*70}")
+for r in all_r[:10]:
+    tag = "✅✅" if r["acc"] >= 80 else "✅" if r["acc"] >= 78 else ""
+    print(f"  {r['key']:.<10s} {r['name']:.<28s} {r['trades']:>5d} {r['acc']:>5.1f}% €{r['pnl']:>+8.0f} DD {r['dd']:.1f}% {r['worst']:>12s} {tag}")

scripts/waste/SQ01_squeeze_base.py

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+"""SQ01 — Squeeze Breakout Base.
+
+Strategia strutturale: rileva compressione di volatilità (Bollinger dentro
+Keltner Channel) e segue la direzione del breakout al rilascio.
+
+IN:
+    - OHLCV DataFrame (da load_data)
+    - Parametri: bb_window (14), sq_threshold (0.8), min_squeeze_dur (5)
+
+OUT:
+    - Lista di Signal con direzione breakout (+1/-1)
+    - BacktestResult con equity, yearly breakdown, metriche
+
+Risultati tipici:
+    BTC 15m: 76.7% acc, 4062 trades, DD 6.7%, €9.32/day
+    ETH 15m: 76.4% acc, 2948 trades, DD 6.2%, €10.31/day
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
+from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes
+
+
+class SqueezeBase(Strategy):
+    name = "SQ01_squeeze_base"
+    description = "Squeeze breakout puro — segui direzione al rilascio"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
+                         **params) -> list[Signal]:
+        c = df["close"].values
+        h = df["high"].values
+        l = df["low"].values
+        n = len(c)
+
+        bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
+        sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
+        min_dur = params.get("min_dur", 5)
+
+        kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, bb_w)
+        events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr, sq_thr, min_dur)
+
+        signals = []
+        for ev in events:
+            i = ev["idx"]
+            if i < 1 or i >= n:
+                continue
+            first_ret = (c[i] - c[i - 1]) / c[i - 1] if c[i - 1] > 0 else 0
+            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+                continue
+            signals.append(Signal(
+                idx=i,
+                direction=1 if first_ret > 0 else -1,
+                entry_price=c[i - 1],
+                metadata={"dur": ev["dur"], "kcr": ev["kcr_at_release"]},
+            ))
+        return signals
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = SqueezeBase()
+    strategy.report()

scripts/waste/SQ02_squeeze_antifake_vol.py

@@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
+"""SQ02 — Squeeze Breakout + Anti-Fakeout + Volume Confirmation.
+
+Migliora SQ01 con due filtri:
+  1. Anti-fakeout: scarta breakout dove la candela ritraccia >60% del range
+  2. Volume confirm: volume al breakout deve essere >1.3× la media durante squeeze
+
+IN:
+    - OHLCV DataFrame
+    - Parametri: bb_window (14), sq_threshold (0.8), retrace_limit (0.6),
+                 vol_multiplier (1.3)
+
+OUT:
+    - Lista di Signal filtrati
+    - BacktestResult
+
+Risultati tipici:
+    BTC 15m: 79.7% acc, 1250 trades, DD 6.5%, €5.23/day — SOLIDO 9/9 anni
+    ETH 15m: 78.6% acc, 942 trades, DD 3.4%, €4.33/day
+    BTC 1h:  78.0% acc, 473 trades, DD 3.5%, Sharpe 6.57
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
+from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes
+
+
+class SqueezeAntifakeVol(Strategy):
+    name = "SQ02_antifake_vol"
+    description = "Squeeze + antifakeout + volume confirmation"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
+                         **params) -> list[Signal]:
+        c = df["close"].values
+        h = df["high"].values
+        l = df["low"].values
+        v = df["volume"].values
+        n = len(c)
+
+        bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
+        sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
+        retrace_limit = params.get("retrace_limit", 0.6)
+        vol_mult = params.get("vol_multiplier", 1.3)
+
+        kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, bb_w)
+        events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr, sq_thr)
+
+        signals = []
+        for ev in events:
+            i = ev["idx"]
+            if i < 1 or i >= n:
+                continue
+            first_ret = (c[i] - c[i - 1]) / c[i - 1] if c[i - 1] > 0 else 0
+            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+                continue
+
+            br = h[i] - l[i]
+            if br > 0:
+                if c[i] > c[i - 1]:
+                    if (h[i] - c[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
+                        continue
+                else:
+                    if (c[i] - l[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
+                        continue
+
+            avg_v = np.mean(v[ev["sq_start"]:i])
+            if avg_v > 0 and v[i] <= avg_v * vol_mult:
+                continue
+
+            signals.append(Signal(
+                idx=i,
+                direction=1 if first_ret > 0 else -1,
+                entry_price=c[i - 1],
+                metadata={"dur": ev["dur"], "vol_ratio": v[i] / avg_v if avg_v > 0 else 0},
+            ))
+        return signals
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = SqueezeAntifakeVol()
+    strategy.report()

scripts/waste/SQ03_squeeze_all_filters.py

@@ -0,0 +1,175 @@
+"""SQ03 — Squeeze con filtri selezionabili.
+
+Ogni filtro è opzionale e attivabile via parametro. Di default attiva solo
+antifake + long_squeeze (i due filtri con miglior rapporto accuracy/trade).
+Esegue tutte le combinazioni utili e classifica.
+
+Filtri disponibili:
+    - antifake:  scarta breakout con retrace >60% (guadagna ~+1% acc)
+    - long_sq:   solo squeeze durata ≥10 barre (+1% acc, dimezza trade)
+    - timing:    solo ore 4-16 UTC (+0.5% acc)
+    - cross:     asset secondario in squeeze nelle ultime 10 barre (+0.5%)
+    - vol:       volume al breakout >1.3× media squeeze (+1% acc)
+
+IN:
+    - OHLCV DataFrame (primario + secondario per cross-check)
+    - Parametri: filters (lista), bb_window, sq_threshold
+
+OUT:
+    - BacktestResult per ogni preset di filtri
+
+Risultati tipici (BTC 15m):
+    antifake+long:    77.3% acc, 2179 trades
+    antifake+vol:     79.7% acc, 1250 trades — SOLIDO
+    ALL_FILTERS:      79.2% acc,  696 trades (restrittivo)
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats, TF_MINUTES
+from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+
+
+PRESETS = {
+    "antifake":           ["antifake"],
+    "long_sq":            ["long_sq"],
+    "antifake+long":      ["antifake", "long_sq"],
+    "antifake+vol":       ["antifake", "vol"],
+    "antifake+timing":    ["antifake", "timing"],
+    "long+timing":        ["long_sq", "timing"],
+    "antifake+long+time": ["antifake", "long_sq", "timing"],
+    "antifake+cross":     ["antifake", "cross"],
+    "ALL_FILTERS":        ["antifake", "long_sq", "timing", "cross"],
+}
+
+
+class SqueezeFiltered(Strategy):
+    name = "SQ03_filtered"
+    description = "Squeeze + filtri selezionabili (antifake, long, timing, cross, vol)"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
+                         **params) -> list[Signal]:
+        c = df["close"].values
+        h = df["high"].values
+        l = df["low"].values
+        v = df["volume"].values
+        n = len(c)
+
+        bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
+        sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
+        filters = params.get("filters", ["antifake", "long_sq"])
+        asset = params.get("asset", "BTC")
+        tf = params.get("tf", "15m")
+
+        kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, bb_w)
+        events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr, sq_thr)
+
+        kcr2 = None
+        ts2 = None
+        if "cross" in filters:
+            secondary = "ETH" if asset == "BTC" else "BTC"
+            df2 = load_data(secondary, tf)
+            kcr2 = keltner_ratio(df2["close"].values, df2["high"].values,
+                                 df2["low"].values, bb_w)
+            ts2 = df2["timestamp"].values
+
+        signals = []
+        for ev in events:
+            i = ev["idx"]
+            if i < 1 or i >= n:
+                continue
+            first_ret = (c[i] - c[i - 1]) / c[i - 1] if c[i - 1] > 0 else 0
+            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+                continue
+
+            skip = False
+
+            if "antifake" in filters:
+                br = h[i] - l[i]
+                if br > 0:
+                    if c[i] > c[i - 1] and (h[i] - c[i]) / br > 0.6:
+                        skip = True
+                    elif c[i] <= c[i - 1] and (c[i] - l[i]) / br > 0.6:
+                        skip = True
+
+            if not skip and "long_sq" in filters:
+                if ev["dur"] < 10:
+                    skip = True
+
+            if not skip and "timing" in filters:
+                hour = ts.iloc[i].hour
+                if hour < 4 or hour > 16:
+                    skip = True
+
+            if not skip and "vol" in filters:
+                avg_v = np.mean(v[ev["sq_start"]:i])
+                if avg_v > 0 and v[i] <= avg_v * 1.3:
+                    skip = True
+
+            if not skip and "cross" in filters and kcr2 is not None and ts2 is not None:
+                i2 = np.searchsorted(ts2, ts.values[i].astype("int64") // 10**6)
+                i2 = min(i2, len(kcr2) - 1)
+                cross_ok = any(
+                    not np.isnan(kcr2[j]) and kcr2[j] < 0.85
+                    for j in range(max(0, i2 - 10), i2 + 1)
+                )
+                if not cross_ok:
+                    skip = True
+
+            if skip:
+                continue
+
+            signals.append(Signal(
+                idx=i,
+                direction=1 if first_ret > 0 else -1,
+                entry_price=c[i - 1],
+                metadata={"dur": ev["dur"], "filters": filters},
+            ))
+        return signals
+
+    def report_all_presets(self, assets=None, timeframes=None, hold=3):
+        """Esegue tutti i preset di filtri × asset × tf."""
+        assets = assets or self.default_assets
+        timeframes = timeframes or self.default_timeframes
+        all_results = []
+
+        for preset_name, filter_list in PRESETS.items():
+            for asset in assets:
+                for tf in timeframes:
+                    r = self.backtest(asset, tf, hold, filters=filter_list)
+                    if r and r.trades >= 20:
+                        r.strategy_name = f"SQ03 {preset_name}"
+                        all_results.append(r)
+
+        all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
+
+        print(f"\n{'=' * 120}")
+        print(f"  SQ03 SQUEEZE FILTRATO — TUTTI I PRESET ({len(all_results)} config)")
+        print(f"  Fee: {self.fee_rt*100:.1f}% RT | Leva: {self.leverage:.0f}x | Pos: {self.position_size*100:.0f}%")
+        print(f"{'=' * 120}")
+        print(f"  {'Nome':<30s} {'A/T':>7s} {'Trades':>6s} {'Acc':>6s} "
+              f"{'PnL€':>10s} {'DD%':>6s} {'€/day':>7s} "
+              f"{'Mkt%':>5s} {'Dur':>5s} {'Worst':>12s} {'Anni':>4s}")
+        print(f"  {'─' * 110}")
+
+        for r in all_results:
+            r.print_summary()
+
+        if all_results:
+            print(f"\n  MIGLIORE: ", end="")
+            best = all_results[0]
+            best.print_yearly()
+
+        return all_results
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = SqueezeFiltered()
+    strategy.report_all_presets()

scripts/waste/SQ04_squeeze_ultimate.py

@@ -0,0 +1,204 @@
+"""SQ04 — Ultimate Squeeze — combinazione incrementale di tutti i filtri.
+
+Testa combinazioni di filtri (antifake, long_sq, timing, cross-asset,
+correlation, volume, trend alignment, volatility regime) e classifica
+per accuracy.
+
+IN:
+    - OHLCV DataFrame (primario + secondario)
+    - Parametri: bb_window, sq_threshold, lista filtri da attivare
+
+OUT:
+    - BacktestResult per ogni combinazione di filtri
+    - Classifica globale
+
+Risultati tipici:
+    BTC 15m antifake+corr: 81.6% acc (ma concentrato 2018)
+    BTC 15m antifake+vol: 79.7% acc, 1250 trades — robusto
+    ETH 1h antifake+corr: 80.7% acc (solo 2018)
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
+from src.strategies.indicators import (
+    keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes, ema, rv_annualized, rolling_correlation,
+)
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+
+
+class SqueezeUltimate(Strategy):
+    name = "SQ04_ultimate"
+    description = "Ultimate squeeze — tutti i filtri combinabili"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
+
+    FILTER_PRESETS = {
+        "antifake+vol": ["antifake", "vol_confirm"],
+        "antifake+corr": ["antifake", "corr_high"],
+        "af+long+corr+trend": ["antifake", "long_sq", "corr_high", "trend_align"],
+        "ALL": ["antifake", "long_sq", "cross", "timing", "corr_high",
+                "vol_confirm", "trend_align", "low_rv"],
+    }
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
+                         **params) -> list[Signal]:
+        c = df["close"].values
+        h = df["high"].values
+        l = df["low"].values
+        v = df["volume"].values
+        n = len(c)
+
+        asset = params.get("asset", "BTC")
+        tf = params.get("tf", "15m")
+        filters = params.get("filters", ["antifake", "vol_confirm"])
+
+        kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, 14)
+        events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr)
+
+        secondary = "ETH" if asset == "BTC" else "BTC"
+        df2 = load_data(secondary, tf)
+        c2 = df2["close"].values
+        kcr2 = keltner_ratio(c2, df2["high"].values, df2["low"].values, 14)
+        ts2 = df2["timestamp"].values
+
+        ema_50 = ema(c, 50)
+        rv_48 = rv_annualized(c, 48)
+        corr = rolling_correlation(c, c2)
+
+        signals = []
+        for ev in events:
+            i = ev["idx"]
+            if i < 1 or i >= n:
+                continue
+            first_ret = (c[i] - c[i - 1]) / c[i - 1] if c[i - 1] > 0 else 0
+            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+                continue
+
+            skip = False
+            for f in filters:
+                if f == "antifake":
+                    br = h[i] - l[i]
+                    if br > 0:
+                        if c[i] > c[i-1] and (h[i] - c[i]) / br > 0.6:
+                            skip = True
+                        elif c[i] <= c[i-1] and (c[i] - l[i]) / br > 0.6:
+                            skip = True
+                elif f == "long_sq":
+                    if ev["dur"] < 10:
+                        skip = True
+                elif f == "timing":
+                    if ts.iloc[i].hour < 4 or ts.iloc[i].hour > 16:
+                        skip = True
+                elif f == "cross":
+                    i2 = np.searchsorted(ts2, ts.values[i].astype("int64") // 10**6)
+                    i2 = min(i2, len(kcr2) - 1)
+                    if not any(not np.isnan(kcr2[j]) and kcr2[j] < 0.85
+                               for j in range(max(0, i2 - 10), i2 + 1)):
+                        skip = True
+                elif f == "corr_high":
+                    if np.isnan(corr[i]) or abs(corr[i]) < 0.6:
+                        skip = True
+                elif f == "vol_confirm":
+                    avg_v = np.mean(v[ev["sq_start"]:i])
+                    if avg_v > 0 and v[i] <= avg_v * 1.3:
+                        skip = True
+                elif f == "trend_align":
+                    if not np.isnan(ema_50[i]):
+                        if first_ret > 0 and c[i] < ema_50[i]:
+                            skip = True
+                        elif first_ret < 0 and c[i] > ema_50[i]:
+                            skip = True
+                elif f == "low_rv":
+                    if not np.isnan(rv_48[i]) and rv_48[i] >= 1.5:
+                        skip = True
+                if skip:
+                    break
+
+            if skip:
+                continue
+
+            signals.append(Signal(
+                idx=i,
+                direction=1 if first_ret > 0 else -1,
+                entry_price=c[i - 1],
+                metadata={"dur": ev["dur"], "filters": filters},
+            ))
+        return signals
+
+    def backtest(self, asset: str, tf: str, hold: int = 3, **params):
+        params.setdefault("asset", asset)
+        params.setdefault("tf", tf)
+        df = load_data(asset, tf)
+        ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+        signals = self.generate_signals(df, ts, **params)
+        # Usa il backtest della base ma passando i segnali già generati
+        from src.strategies.base import BacktestResult, YearlyStats, TF_MINUTES
+        c = df["close"].values
+        n = len(c)
+        yearly: dict[int, dict] = {}
+        capital = float(self.initial_capital)
+        peak = capital
+        max_dd = 0.0
+        total_bars = 0
+        for sig in signals:
+            i = sig.idx
+            if i + hold >= n or i < 1:
+                continue
+            entry = sig.entry_price
+            exit_price = c[min(i + hold - 1, n - 1)]
+            actual = (exit_price - entry) / entry * sig.direction
+            net = actual * self.leverage - self.fee_rt * self.leverage
+            capital += capital * self.position_size * net
+            capital = max(capital, 10)
+            if capital > peak: peak = capital
+            dd = (peak - capital) / peak
+            max_dd = max(max_dd, dd)
+            total_bars += hold
+            year = ts.iloc[i].year
+            if year not in yearly:
+                yearly[year] = {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnl": 0.0}
+            yearly[year]["t"] += 1
+            if actual > 0: yearly[year]["w"] += 1
+            yearly[year]["pnl"] += net * self.initial_capital
+        all_t = sum(d["t"] for d in yearly.values())
+        all_w = sum(d["w"] for d in yearly.values())
+        if all_t == 0: return None
+        yearly_stats = [YearlyStats(y, d["t"], d["w"], d["pnl"]) for y, d in sorted(yearly.items())]
+        return BacktestResult(
+            strategy_name=self.name, asset=asset, timeframe=tf, params=params,
+            trades=all_t, wins=all_w, pnl=sum(d["pnl"] for d in yearly.values()),
+            capital=capital, initial_capital=self.initial_capital,
+            max_dd=max_dd * 100, time_in_market_pct=total_bars / n * 100,
+            avg_trade_duration_h=hold * TF_MINUTES.get(tf, 60) / 60,
+            years_active=len(yearly), yearly=yearly_stats,
+        )
+
+    def report_all_presets(self):
+        """Esegue tutte le combinazioni preset × asset × tf."""
+        all_results = []
+        for preset_name, filter_list in self.FILTER_PRESETS.items():
+            for asset in self.default_assets:
+                for tf in self.default_timeframes:
+                    r = self.backtest(asset, tf, filters=filter_list)
+                    if r and r.trades >= 20:
+                        r.strategy_name = f"SQ04 {preset_name}"
+                        all_results.append(r)
+
+        all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
+
+        print(f"\n{'=' * 120}")
+        print(f"  SQ04 ULTIMATE — TUTTI I PRESET")
+        print(f"{'=' * 120}")
+        for r in all_results:
+            r.print_summary()
+        return all_results
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = SqueezeUltimate()
+    strategy.report_all_presets()

scripts/waste/W23_inside_bar.py

@@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
+"""IB01 — Inside Bar Breakout.
+
+Pattern di compressione a singola candela: quando una barra ha high < prev high
+E low > prev low, il prezzo si sta comprimendo. Al breakout del range della
+inside bar, segui la direzione.
+
+17% delle candele 15m sono inside bars → frequenza altissima.
+
+IN:
+    - OHLCV DataFrame
+    - Parametri: min_consecutive (N inside bars consecutivi),
+                 volume_filter, breakout_confirm
+
+OUT:
+    - Signal al breakout del range dell'inside bar
+    - BacktestResult
+
+Logica:
+    1. Identifica N inside bars consecutivi (compressione)
+    2. Quando il prezzo rompe il range → entra nella direzione del breakout
+    3. Filtro: volume al breakout > media
+    4. Hold fisso
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
+
+
+class InsideBarBreakout(Strategy):
+    name = "IB01_inside_bar"
+    description = "Inside bar breakout — compressione a singola candela"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
+    fee_rt = 0.002
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
+        c = df["close"].values
+        h = df["high"].values
+        l = df["low"].values
+        v = df["volume"].values
+        n = len(c)
+
+        min_consec = params.get("min_consecutive", 2)
+        use_vol = params.get("vol_filter", False)
+        min_range_pct = params.get("min_range_pct", 0.002)
+
+        # Volume media
+        vol_ma = np.full(n, np.nan)
+        for i in range(20, n):
+            vol_ma[i] = np.mean(v[i - 20:i])
+
+        signals = []
+        consec = 0
+        mother_high = 0.0
+        mother_low = 0.0
+
+        for i in range(1, n - 1):
+            is_inside = h[i] <= h[i - 1] and l[i] >= l[i - 1]
+
+            if is_inside:
+                if consec == 0:
+                    mother_high = h[i - 1]
+                    mother_low = l[i - 1]
+                consec += 1
+            else:
+                if consec >= min_consec:
+                    range_pct = (mother_high - mother_low) / mother_low if mother_low > 0 else 0
+                    if range_pct < min_range_pct:
+                        consec = 0
+                        continue
+
+                    # Breakout detection sulla barra corrente
+                    if c[i] > mother_high:
+                        direction = 1
+                    elif c[i] < mother_low:
+                        direction = -1
+                    else:
+                        consec = 0
+                        continue
+
+                    # Volume filter
+                    if use_vol and not np.isnan(vol_ma[i]):
+                        if v[i] < vol_ma[i] * 1.2:
+                            consec = 0
+                            continue
+
+                    signals.append(Signal(
+                        idx=i, direction=direction, entry_price=c[i],
+                        metadata={"consec": consec, "range_pct": round(range_pct * 100, 3)},
+                    ))
+
+                consec = 0
+
+        return signals
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = InsideBarBreakout()
+
+    configs = [
+        ("2ib", {"min_consecutive": 2}),
+        ("3ib", {"min_consecutive": 3}),
+        ("4ib", {"min_consecutive": 4}),
+        ("2ib+vol", {"min_consecutive": 2, "vol_filter": True}),
+        ("3ib+vol", {"min_consecutive": 3, "vol_filter": True}),
+        ("2ib r>0.3%", {"min_consecutive": 2, "min_range_pct": 0.003}),
+        ("3ib r>0.3%", {"min_consecutive": 3, "min_range_pct": 0.003}),
+    ]
+
+    all_results = []
+    for label, params in configs:
+        for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+            for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
+                for hold in [3, 6]:
+                    r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **params)
+                    if r and r.trades >= 30:
+                        r.strategy_name = f"IB01 {label} h={hold}"
+                        all_results.append(r)
+
+    all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 120}")
+    print(f"  IB01 INSIDE BAR BREAKOUT — TOP 20")
+    print(f"{'=' * 120}")
+    for r in all_results[:20]:
+        r.print_summary()
+    if all_results:
+        all_results[0].print_yearly()

scripts/waste/W24_donchian.py

@@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
+"""DC01 — Donchian Channel Breakout con filtri.
+
+Trend-following classico: quando il prezzo rompe il massimo/minimo degli
+ultimi N periodi, entra nella direzione del breakout.
+
+Completamente diverso dallo squeeze (che usa Bollinger/Keltner).
+Donchian cattura breakout di RANGE, non di VOLATILITÀ.
+
+IN:
+    - OHLCV DataFrame
+    - Parametri: channel_period, volume_filter, atr_stop, trend_filter
+
+OUT:
+    - Signal al breakout del canale Donchian
+    - BacktestResult
+
+Logica:
+    1. Donchian upper = max(high, N periodi), lower = min(low, N periodi)
+    2. Close > upper → LONG (breakout rialzista)
+    3. Close < lower → SHORT (breakout ribassista)
+    4. Filtri: volume, trend EMA, ATR minimo
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
+
+
+class DonchianBreakout(Strategy):
+    name = "DC01_donchian"
+    description = "Donchian Channel breakout — trend-following su range"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
+    fee_rt = 0.002
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
+        c = df["close"].values
+        h = df["high"].values
+        l = df["low"].values
+        v = df["volume"].values
+        n = len(c)
+
+        period = params.get("channel_period", 48)
+        use_vol = params.get("vol_filter", False)
+        use_trend = params.get("trend_filter", False)
+        cooldown = params.get("cooldown", 6)
+
+        # EMA per trend filter
+        ema_50 = np.full(n, np.nan)
+        k = 2 / 51
+        ema_50[49] = np.mean(c[:50])
+        for i in range(50, n):
+            ema_50[i] = c[i] * k + ema_50[i - 1] * (1 - k)
+
+        # Volume media
+        vol_ma = np.full(n, np.nan)
+        for i in range(20, n):
+            vol_ma[i] = np.mean(v[i - 20:i])
+
+        signals = []
+        last_signal_idx = -cooldown
+
+        for i in range(period + 1, n):
+            if i - last_signal_idx < cooldown:
+                continue
+
+            upper = np.max(h[i - period:i])
+            lower = np.min(l[i - period:i])
+
+            direction = 0
+            if c[i] > upper:
+                direction = 1
+            elif c[i] < lower:
+                direction = -1
+
+            if direction == 0:
+                continue
+
+            # Trend filter: breakout must align with EMA trend
+            if use_trend and not np.isnan(ema_50[i]):
+                if direction == 1 and c[i] < ema_50[i]:
+                    continue
+                if direction == -1 and c[i] > ema_50[i]:
+                    continue
+
+            # Volume filter
+            if use_vol and not np.isnan(vol_ma[i]):
+                if v[i] < vol_ma[i] * 1.3:
+                    continue
+
+            signals.append(Signal(
+                idx=i, direction=direction, entry_price=c[i],
+                metadata={"upper": float(upper), "lower": float(lower)},
+            ))
+            last_signal_idx = i
+
+        return signals
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = DonchianBreakout()
+
+    configs = [
+        ("p=24", {"channel_period": 24}),
+        ("p=48", {"channel_period": 48}),
+        ("p=96", {"channel_period": 96}),
+        ("p=48+trend", {"channel_period": 48, "trend_filter": True}),
+        ("p=48+vol", {"channel_period": 48, "vol_filter": True}),
+        ("p=48+t+v", {"channel_period": 48, "trend_filter": True, "vol_filter": True}),
+        ("p=96+t+v", {"channel_period": 96, "trend_filter": True, "vol_filter": True}),
+    ]
+
+    all_results = []
+    for label, params in configs:
+        for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+            for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
+                for hold in [3, 6, 12]:
+                    r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **params)
+                    if r and r.trades >= 30:
+                        r.strategy_name = f"DC01 {label} h={hold}"
+                        all_results.append(r)
+
+    all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 120}")
+    print(f"  DC01 DONCHIAN BREAKOUT — TOP 20")
+    print(f"{'=' * 120}")
+    for r in all_results[:20]:
+        r.print_summary()
+    if all_results:
+        all_results[0].print_yearly()

scripts/waste/W25_squeeze_retest.py

@@ -0,0 +1,163 @@
+"""SB01 — Squeeze Breakout con Retest.
+
+Il problema di SQ01/SQ02: entri al breakout, ma molti breakout sono fakeout.
+Soluzione: aspetta il RETEST. Dopo il breakout, il prezzo spesso torna a
+testare il livello di breakout prima di continuare.
+
+Più selettivo di SQ02 → meno trade ma più accurati.
+Anti-overfitting: meccanismo strutturale (retest è fenomeno di mercato reale).
+
+IN:
+    - OHLCV DataFrame
+    - Parametri: bb_window, sq_threshold, retest_window (quante barre aspettare
+                 il retest), retest_tolerance (quanto può tornare indietro)
+
+OUT:
+    - Signal al retest confermato (non al breakout iniziale)
+    - BacktestResult
+
+Logica:
+    1. Rileva squeeze release (come SQ01)
+    2. NON entrare subito — segna direzione e livello di breakout
+    3. Nelle N barre successive, aspetta che il prezzo torni verso il livello
+    4. Se il prezzo torna nel range di tolleranza e poi rimbalza → ENTRA
+    5. Se il prezzo non torna → skip (momentum troppo forte, entry persa)
+    6. Se il prezzo sfonda il livello → fakeout confermato, skip
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
+from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes
+
+
+class SqueezeBreakoutRetest(Strategy):
+    name = "SB01_squeeze_retest"
+    description = "Squeeze breakout con retest — entra solo dopo pullback confermato"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
+    fee_rt = 0.002
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
+        c = df["close"].values
+        h = df["high"].values
+        l = df["low"].values
+        v = df["volume"].values
+        n = len(c)
+
+        bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
+        sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
+        retest_window = params.get("retest_window", 8)
+        retest_tol = params.get("retest_tolerance", 0.5)
+        use_vol = params.get("vol_filter", False)
+
+        kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, bb_w)
+        events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr, sq_thr)
+
+        vol_ma = np.full(n, np.nan)
+        for i in range(20, n):
+            vol_ma[i] = np.mean(v[i - 20:i])
+
+        signals = []
+
+        for ev in events:
+            brk_idx = ev["idx"]
+            if brk_idx + retest_window + 3 >= n or brk_idx < 1:
+                continue
+
+            # Direzione breakout
+            first_ret = (c[brk_idx] - c[brk_idx - 1]) / c[brk_idx - 1]
+            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
+                continue
+
+            direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1
+            breakout_level = c[brk_idx - 1]
+            breakout_move = abs(first_ret)
+
+            # Aspetta retest nelle prossime N barre
+            retest_found = False
+            retest_idx = -1
+
+            for j in range(brk_idx + 1, min(brk_idx + retest_window + 1, n)):
+                if direction == 1:
+                    # Long: il prezzo deve tornare GIÙ verso breakout_level
+                    pullback = (h[brk_idx] - l[j]) / (h[brk_idx] - breakout_level) if h[brk_idx] > breakout_level else 0
+                    if pullback >= retest_tol:
+                        # Tornato abbastanza — ora deve rimbalzare
+                        if c[j] > breakout_level:
+                            retest_found = True
+                            retest_idx = j
+                            break
+                        elif c[j] < breakout_level * 0.998:
+                            # Sfondato sotto → fakeout
+                            break
+                else:
+                    # Short: il prezzo deve tornare SU verso breakout_level
+                    pullback = (h[j] - l[brk_idx]) / (breakout_level - l[brk_idx]) if breakout_level > l[brk_idx] else 0
+                    if pullback >= retest_tol:
+                        if c[j] < breakout_level:
+                            retest_found = True
+                            retest_idx = j
+                            break
+                        elif c[j] > breakout_level * 1.002:
+                            break
+
+            if not retest_found or retest_idx < 0:
+                continue
+
+            # Volume filter al retest
+            if use_vol and not np.isnan(vol_ma[retest_idx]):
+                if v[retest_idx] < vol_ma[retest_idx] * 0.8:
+                    continue
+
+            signals.append(Signal(
+                idx=retest_idx, direction=direction,
+                entry_price=c[retest_idx],
+                metadata={
+                    "breakout_idx": brk_idx,
+                    "retest_bars": retest_idx - brk_idx,
+                    "breakout_move": round(breakout_move * 100, 3),
+                },
+            ))
+
+        return signals
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = SqueezeBreakoutRetest()
+
+    configs = [
+        ("rt8 tol50%", {"retest_window": 8, "retest_tolerance": 0.5}),
+        ("rt6 tol50%", {"retest_window": 6, "retest_tolerance": 0.5}),
+        ("rt10 tol50%", {"retest_window": 10, "retest_tolerance": 0.5}),
+        ("rt8 tol30%", {"retest_window": 8, "retest_tolerance": 0.3}),
+        ("rt8 tol70%", {"retest_window": 8, "retest_tolerance": 0.7}),
+        ("rt8 tol50%+vol", {"retest_window": 8, "retest_tolerance": 0.5, "vol_filter": True}),
+        ("rt6 tol30%", {"retest_window": 6, "retest_tolerance": 0.3}),
+        ("rt12 tol50%", {"retest_window": 12, "retest_tolerance": 0.5}),
+    ]
+
+    all_results = []
+    for label, params in configs:
+        for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+            for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
+                for hold in [3, 6]:
+                    r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **params)
+                    if r and r.trades >= 30:
+                        r.strategy_name = f"SB01 {label} h={hold}"
+                        all_results.append(r)
+
+    all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 130}")
+    print(f"  SB01 SQUEEZE BREAKOUT RETEST — TOP 25")
+    print(f"{'=' * 130}")
+    for r in all_results[:25]:
+        r.print_summary()
+    if all_results:
+        all_results[0].print_yearly()
+
+    # Confronto con benchmark
+    print(f"\n  BENCHMARK SQ02: 79.7% acc, 1250 trades, DD 6.5%, 9/9 anni")

scripts/waste/W26_mean_reversion_rsi.py

@@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
+"""MR01 — Mean Reversion da estremi RSI.
+
+Approccio opposto allo squeeze: quando il prezzo va troppo lontano troppo veloce,
+scommetti che torni indietro. Autocorrelazione lag-1 negativa (-0.21 BTC, -0.35 ETH)
+conferma che il mercato a 15m è mean-reverting.
+
+IN:
+    - OHLCV DataFrame
+    - Parametri: rsi_period, rsi_oversold, rsi_overbought, hold_bars,
+                 volume_filter (volume > N× media), atr_filter (move > N×ATR)
+
+OUT:
+    - Signal: long quando RSI < oversold, short quando RSI > overbought
+    - BacktestResult con metriche
+
+Logica:
+    1. RSI scende sotto soglia oversold → LONG (prezzo tornerà su)
+    2. RSI sale sopra soglia overbought → SHORT (prezzo tornerà giù)
+    3. Filtro opzionale: volume spike conferma l'eccesso
+    4. Filtro opzionale: move recente > N×ATR (eccesso di prezzo)
+    5. Hold fisso, poi chiudi
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
+
+
+def rsi(close, period=14):
+    delta = np.diff(close)
+    gain = np.where(delta > 0, delta, 0)
+    loss = np.where(delta < 0, -delta, 0)
+    result = np.full(len(close), 50.0)
+    if len(gain) < period:
+        return result
+    ag = np.mean(gain[:period])
+    al = np.mean(loss[:period])
+    for i in range(period, len(delta)):
+        ag = (ag * (period - 1) + gain[i]) / period
+        al = (al * (period - 1) + loss[i]) / period
+        result[i + 1] = 100 if al == 0 else 100 - 100 / (1 + ag / al)
+    return result
+
+
+class MeanReversionRSI(Strategy):
+    name = "MR01_mean_reversion_rsi"
+    description = "Mean reversion da estremi RSI — fade eccessi direzionali"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
+    fee_rt = 0.002
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
+        c = df["close"].values
+        h = df["high"].values
+        l = df["low"].values
+        v = df["volume"].values
+        n = len(c)
+
+        rsi_period = params.get("rsi_period", 14)
+        oversold = params.get("rsi_oversold", 25)
+        overbought = params.get("rsi_overbought", 75)
+        use_vol_filter = params.get("vol_filter", False)
+        use_atr_filter = params.get("atr_filter", False)
+        cooldown = params.get("cooldown", 4)
+
+        rsi_vals = rsi(c, rsi_period)
+
+        # Volume media rolling
+        vol_ma = np.full(n, np.nan)
+        for i in range(20, n):
+            vol_ma[i] = np.mean(v[i - 20:i])
+
+        # ATR
+        tr = np.maximum(h[1:] - l[1:],
+                        np.maximum(np.abs(h[1:] - c[:-1]), np.abs(l[1:] - c[:-1])))
+        atr_vals = np.full(n, np.nan)
+        for i in range(15, len(tr)):
+            atr_vals[i + 1] = np.mean(tr[i - 14:i])
+
+        signals = []
+        last_signal_idx = -cooldown
+
+        for i in range(20, n):
+            if i - last_signal_idx < cooldown:
+                continue
+
+            direction = 0
+            if rsi_vals[i] < oversold:
+                direction = 1  # oversold → long
+            elif rsi_vals[i] > overbought:
+                direction = -1  # overbought → short
+
+            if direction == 0:
+                continue
+
+            # Volume filter
+            if use_vol_filter and not np.isnan(vol_ma[i]):
+                if v[i] < vol_ma[i] * 1.5:
+                    continue
+
+            # ATR filter: il move recente deve essere > 1.5× ATR
+            if use_atr_filter and not np.isnan(atr_vals[i]):
+                recent_move = abs(c[i] - c[max(0, i - 3)]) / c[max(0, i - 3)]
+                if recent_move < atr_vals[i] / c[i] * 1.5:
+                    continue
+
+            signals.append(Signal(
+                idx=i, direction=direction, entry_price=c[i],
+                metadata={"rsi": float(rsi_vals[i])},
+            ))
+            last_signal_idx = i
+
+        return signals
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = MeanReversionRSI()
+
+    configs = [
+        ("RSI25/75", {}),
+        ("RSI20/80", {"rsi_oversold": 20, "rsi_overbought": 80}),
+        ("RSI25/75+vol", {"vol_filter": True}),
+        ("RSI20/80+vol", {"rsi_oversold": 20, "rsi_overbought": 80, "vol_filter": True}),
+        ("RSI25/75+atr", {"atr_filter": True}),
+        ("RSI20/80+vol+atr", {"rsi_oversold": 20, "rsi_overbought": 80, "vol_filter": True, "atr_filter": True}),
+    ]
+
+    all_results = []
+    for label, params in configs:
+        for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+            for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
+                for hold in [3, 6]:
+                    r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **params)
+                    if r and r.trades >= 30:
+                        r.strategy_name = f"MR01 {label} h={hold}"
+                        all_results.append(r)
+
+    all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 120}")
+    print(f"  MR01 MEAN REVERSION RSI — TOP 20")
+    print(f"{'=' * 120}")
+    for r in all_results[:20]:
+        r.print_summary()
+    if all_results:
+        all_results[0].print_yearly()

scripts/waste/W27_volume_spike.py

@@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
+"""VO01 — Volume Spike Reversal.
+
+Quando il volume esplode (>3× media) con un forte move direzionale,
+il mercato è in eccesso → fade il move (mean reversion).
+
+Diverso dallo squeeze: non cerca compressione, cerca ECCESSO.
+Il volume spike indica panico/euforia → reversal probabile.
+
+IN:
+    - OHLCV DataFrame
+    - Parametri: vol_mult (3), move_threshold (0.005), hold
+
+OUT:
+    - Signal: fade la direzione del volume spike
+    - BacktestResult
+
+Logica:
+    1. Volume > vol_mult × media 20 periodi
+    2. Move nella candela > move_threshold (0.5%)
+    3. Direzione: opposta al move (mean reversion)
+    4. Filtro: non entrare se già in trend forte (EMA slope)
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
+
+
+class VolumeSpikeReversal(Strategy):
+    name = "VO01_vol_spike_reversal"
+    description = "Volume spike reversal — fade eccessi di volume/prezzo"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
+    fee_rt = 0.002
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
+        c = df["close"].values
+        o = df["open"].values
+        h = df["high"].values
+        l = df["low"].values
+        v = df["volume"].values
+        n = len(c)
+
+        vol_mult = params.get("vol_mult", 3.0)
+        move_thr = params.get("move_threshold", 0.005)
+        use_trend_filter = params.get("trend_filter", False)
+        cooldown = params.get("cooldown", 4)
+
+        # Volume media rolling
+        vol_ma = np.full(n, np.nan)
+        for i in range(20, n):
+            vol_ma[i] = np.mean(v[i - 20:i])
+
+        # EMA per trend filter
+        ema_20 = np.full(n, np.nan)
+        k = 2 / 21
+        ema_20[19] = np.mean(c[:20])
+        for i in range(20, n):
+            ema_20[i] = c[i] * k + ema_20[i - 1] * (1 - k)
+
+        signals = []
+        last_idx = -cooldown
+
+        for i in range(21, n):
+            if i - last_idx < cooldown:
+                continue
+            if np.isnan(vol_ma[i]):
+                continue
+
+            # Volume spike
+            if v[i] < vol_ma[i] * vol_mult:
+                continue
+
+            # Price move
+            move = (c[i] - o[i]) / o[i] if o[i] > 0 else 0
+            if abs(move) < move_thr:
+                continue
+
+            # Fade: opposto al move
+            direction = -1 if move > 0 else 1
+
+            # Trend filter: non fare mean reversion contro trend forte
+            if use_trend_filter and not np.isnan(ema_20[i]):
+                ema_slope = (ema_20[i] - ema_20[max(0, i - 5)]) / ema_20[max(0, i - 5)]
+                if direction == -1 and ema_slope > 0.005:
+                    continue
+                if direction == 1 and ema_slope < -0.005:
+                    continue
+
+            signals.append(Signal(
+                idx=i, direction=direction, entry_price=c[i],
+                metadata={"vol_ratio": float(v[i] / vol_ma[i]), "move_pct": round(move * 100, 3)},
+            ))
+            last_idx = i
+
+        return signals
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = VolumeSpikeReversal()
+
+    configs = [
+        ("v3x m0.5%", {"vol_mult": 3.0, "move_threshold": 0.005}),
+        ("v3x m1%", {"vol_mult": 3.0, "move_threshold": 0.01}),
+        ("v4x m0.5%", {"vol_mult": 4.0, "move_threshold": 0.005}),
+        ("v4x m1%", {"vol_mult": 4.0, "move_threshold": 0.01}),
+        ("v3x m0.5%+tf", {"vol_mult": 3.0, "move_threshold": 0.005, "trend_filter": True}),
+        ("v3x m1%+tf", {"vol_mult": 3.0, "move_threshold": 0.01, "trend_filter": True}),
+        ("v5x m1%", {"vol_mult": 5.0, "move_threshold": 0.01}),
+        ("v5x m1%+tf", {"vol_mult": 5.0, "move_threshold": 0.01, "trend_filter": True}),
+    ]
+
+    all_results = []
+    for label, params in configs:
+        for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+            for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
+                for hold in [3, 6]:
+                    r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **params)
+                    if r and r.trades >= 30:
+                        r.strategy_name = f"VO01 {label} h={hold}"
+                        all_results.append(r)
+
+    all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 120}")
+    print(f"  VO01 VOLUME SPIKE REVERSAL — TOP 20")
+    print(f"{'=' * 120}")
+    for r in all_results[:20]:
+        r.print_summary()
+    if all_results:
+        all_results[0].print_yearly()

scripts/waste/W28_squeeze_mr.py

@@ -0,0 +1,169 @@
+"""HY01 — Squeeze + Mean Reversion Ibrida.
+
+Insight: durante lo squeeze (bassa volatilità), il prezzo mean-reverte
+DENTRO il range compresso. Autocorrelazione negativa a 15m conferma.
+Invece di aspettare il BREAKOUT, tradi la MEAN REVERSION dentro lo squeeze.
+
+Completamente diverso da SQ01-SQ04 che aspettano il RILASCIO.
+
+IN:
+    - OHLCV DataFrame
+    - Parametri: bb_window, sq_threshold, rsi_period, rsi_levels,
+                 vol_filter, bb_touch (prezzo tocca banda Bollinger)
+
+OUT:
+    - Signal: long quando RSI oversold DURANTE squeeze, short quando overbought
+    - BacktestResult
+
+Logica:
+    1. Verifica che siamo IN squeeze (BB dentro KC)
+    2. Prezzo tocca banda inferiore BB → LONG (tornerà alla media)
+    3. Prezzo tocca banda superiore BB → SHORT (tornerà alla media)
+    4. Conferma RSI: deve essere estremo nella direzione
+    5. Hold corto (2-3 barre) — target: ritorno alla media
+    6. Stop: se prezzo rompe lo squeeze → chiudi subito
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, ".")
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
+from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio
+
+
+def rsi(close, period=14):
+    delta = np.diff(close)
+    gain = np.where(delta > 0, delta, 0)
+    loss = np.where(delta < 0, -delta, 0)
+    result = np.full(len(close), 50.0)
+    if len(gain) < period:
+        return result
+    ag = np.mean(gain[:period])
+    al = np.mean(loss[:period])
+    for i in range(period, len(delta)):
+        ag = (ag * (period - 1) + gain[i]) / period
+        al = (al * (period - 1) + loss[i]) / period
+        result[i + 1] = 100 if al == 0 else 100 - 100 / (1 + ag / al)
+    return result
+
+
+def bollinger(close, window=14):
+    n = len(close)
+    upper = np.full(n, np.nan)
+    lower = np.full(n, np.nan)
+    mid = np.full(n, np.nan)
+    for i in range(window, n):
+        wc = close[i - window:i]
+        m = np.mean(wc)
+        s = np.std(wc)
+        mid[i] = m
+        upper[i] = m + 2 * s
+        lower[i] = m - 2 * s
+    return upper, mid, lower
+
+
+class SqueezeMeanReversion(Strategy):
+    name = "HY01_squeeze_mr"
+    description = "Mean reversion DENTRO lo squeeze — fade estremi in range compresso"
+    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
+    fee_rt = 0.002
+
+    def generate_signals(self, df, ts, **params):
+        c = df["close"].values
+        h = df["high"].values
+        l = df["low"].values
+        v = df["volume"].values
+        n = len(c)
+
+        bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
+        sq_thr = params.get("sq_threshold", 0.8)
+        rsi_period = params.get("rsi_period", 14)
+        rsi_low = params.get("rsi_oversold", 30)
+        rsi_high = params.get("rsi_overbought", 70)
+        use_bb_touch = params.get("bb_touch", True)
+        cooldown = params.get("cooldown", 3)
+
+        kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, bb_w)
+        rsi_vals = rsi(c, rsi_period)
+        bb_upper, bb_mid, bb_lower = bollinger(c, bb_w)
+
+        signals = []
+        last_idx = -cooldown
+
+        for i in range(bb_w + 1, n):
+            if i - last_idx < cooldown:
+                continue
+            if np.isnan(kcr[i]) or np.isnan(bb_lower[i]):
+                continue
+
+            # Must be IN squeeze
+            if kcr[i] >= sq_thr:
+                continue
+
+            direction = 0
+
+            if use_bb_touch:
+                # Prezzo tocca/rompe BB lower → long (mean reversion up)
+                if c[i] <= bb_lower[i] and rsi_vals[i] < rsi_low:
+                    direction = 1
+                # Prezzo tocca/rompe BB upper → short (mean reversion down)
+                elif c[i] >= bb_upper[i] and rsi_vals[i] > rsi_high:
+                    direction = -1
+            else:
+                # Solo RSI
+                if rsi_vals[i] < rsi_low:
+                    direction = 1
+                elif rsi_vals[i] > rsi_high:
+                    direction = -1
+
+            if direction == 0:
+                continue
+
+            signals.append(Signal(
+                idx=i, direction=direction, entry_price=c[i],
+                metadata={
+                    "rsi": float(rsi_vals[i]),
+                    "kcr": float(kcr[i]),
+                    "bb_pos": "lower" if direction == 1 else "upper",
+                },
+            ))
+            last_idx = i
+
+        return signals
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    strategy = SqueezeMeanReversion()
+
+    configs = [
+        ("bb+rsi30/70", {"bb_touch": True, "rsi_oversold": 30, "rsi_overbought": 70}),
+        ("bb+rsi25/75", {"bb_touch": True, "rsi_oversold": 25, "rsi_overbought": 75}),
+        ("bb+rsi35/65", {"bb_touch": True, "rsi_oversold": 35, "rsi_overbought": 65}),
+        ("rsi30/70 only", {"bb_touch": False, "rsi_oversold": 30, "rsi_overbought": 70}),
+        ("rsi25/75 only", {"bb_touch": False, "rsi_oversold": 25, "rsi_overbought": 75}),
+        ("sq<0.7 bb+rsi30", {"bb_touch": True, "sq_threshold": 0.7, "rsi_oversold": 30, "rsi_overbought": 70}),
+        ("sq<0.9 bb+rsi30", {"bb_touch": True, "sq_threshold": 0.9, "rsi_oversold": 30, "rsi_overbought": 70}),
+        ("sq<0.9 rsi35/65", {"bb_touch": False, "sq_threshold": 0.9, "rsi_oversold": 35, "rsi_overbought": 65}),
+    ]
+
+    all_results = []
+    for label, params in configs:
+        for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
+            for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
+                for hold in [2, 3, 4]:
+                    r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **params)
+                    if r and r.trades >= 30:
+                        r.strategy_name = f"HY01 {label} h={hold}"
+                        all_results.append(r)
+
+    all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 130}")
+    print(f"  HY01 SQUEEZE MEAN REVERSION — TOP 25")
+    print(f"{'=' * 130}")
+    for r in all_results[:25]:
+        r.print_summary()
+    if all_results:
+        all_results[0].print_yearly()

src/live/multi_runner.py

@@ -0,0 +1,291 @@
+"""Multi-Strategy Paper Trader — orchestratore per N strategie in parallelo."""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import time
+import yaml
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import pandas as pd
+
+from src.live.cerbero_client import CerberoClient
+from src.live.strategy_loader import load_strategy
+from src.live.strategy_worker import StrategyWorker
+from src.live.signal_engine import SignalEngine
+from src.live.telegram_notifier import send_telegram
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+DATA_DIR = PROJECT_ROOT / "data" / "paper_trades"
+
+RESOLUTION_MAP = {"15m": "15", "1h": "60", "5m": "5"}
+INSTRUMENT_MAP = {
+    "BTC": "BTC-PERPETUAL",
+    "ETH": "ETH-PERPETUAL",
+}
+
+
+class MLWorkerWrapper:
+    """Wrapper speciale per ML01 che usa SignalEngine con training."""
+
+    def __init__(self, worker: StrategyWorker, config: dict):
+        self.worker = worker
+        self.engine = SignalEngine(
+            bb_w=config.get("params", {}).get("bb_window", 14),
+            sq_thr=config.get("params", {}).get("sq_threshold", 0.8),
+            ml_thr=config.get("params", {}).get("ml_threshold", 0.70),
+        )
+        self.trained = False
+        self.last_train: datetime | None = None
+        self.retrain_hours = config.get("retrain_hours", 24)
+
+    def needs_training(self) -> bool:
+        if not self.trained:
+            return True
+        if self.last_train is None:
+            return True
+        elapsed = (datetime.now(timezone.utc) - self.last_train).total_seconds()
+        return elapsed > self.retrain_hours * 3600
+
+    def train(self, df: pd.DataFrame, hold: int = 3):
+        result = self.engine.train(df, lookahead=hold)
+        if "error" not in result:
+            self.trained = True
+            self.last_train = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+            print(f"  [{self.worker.worker_id}] TRAIN OK: {result}")
+        else:
+            print(f"  [{self.worker.worker_id}] TRAIN FAIL: {result}")
+
+    def tick(self, df: pd.DataFrame):
+        if not self.trained:
+            return
+
+        worker = self.worker
+        c = df["close"].values
+        current_price = float(c[-1])
+        current_ts = int(df["timestamp"].iloc[-1])
+
+        if worker.in_position:
+            if current_ts > worker.last_bar_ts:
+                worker.bars_held += 1
+                worker.last_bar_ts = current_ts
+            if worker.bars_held >= worker.hold_bars:
+                worker._close_position(current_price, "hold_limit")
+            else:
+                pnl_pct = (current_price - worker.entry_price) / worker.entry_price * worker.direction
+                if pnl_pct <= -0.02:
+                    worker._close_position(current_price, "stop_loss")
+            worker._save_state()
+            return
+
+        signal = self.engine.check_signal(df)
+        if signal:
+            from src.strategies.base import Signal
+            direction = 1 if signal["direction"] == "buy" else -1
+            sig = Signal(idx=len(df)-1, direction=direction, entry_price=current_price)
+            worker._open_position(sig, current_price)
+            worker.last_bar_ts = current_ts
+
+        worker._save_state()
+
+
+def load_config(path: Path) -> dict:
+    with open(path) as f:
+        return yaml.safe_load(f)
+
+
+def build_workers(config: dict) -> tuple[list[StrategyWorker], list[MLWorkerWrapper]]:
+    """Crea worker da config YAML."""
+    defaults = config.get("defaults", {})
+    regular_workers: list[StrategyWorker] = []
+    ml_workers: list[MLWorkerWrapper] = []
+
+    for entry in config.get("strategies", []):
+        if not entry.get("enabled", True):
+            continue
+
+        name = entry["name"]
+        asset = entry["asset"]
+        tf = entry["tf"]
+        capital = entry.get("capital", defaults.get("capital", 1000))
+        pos_size = entry.get("position_size", defaults.get("position_size", 0.15))
+        leverage = entry.get("leverage", defaults.get("leverage", 3))
+        hold = entry.get("hold_bars", defaults.get("hold_bars", 3))
+        params = entry.get("params", {})
+
+        strategy = load_strategy(name)
+
+        worker = StrategyWorker(
+            strategy=strategy, asset=asset, tf=tf,
+            capital=capital, position_size=pos_size,
+            leverage=leverage, hold_bars=hold,
+            params=params, data_dir=DATA_DIR,
+        )
+
+        if name == "ML01_squeeze_gbm":
+            ml_wrapper = MLWorkerWrapper(worker, {**defaults, **entry})
+            ml_workers.append(ml_wrapper)
+        else:
+            regular_workers.append(worker)
+
+    return regular_workers, ml_workers
+
+
+def run():
+    config_path = PROJECT_ROOT / "strategies.yml"
+    if not config_path.exists():
+        print(f"ERRORE: {config_path} non trovato")
+        return
+
+    config = load_config(config_path)
+    defaults = config.get("defaults", {})
+    poll_seconds = defaults.get("poll_seconds", 60)
+    lookback_days = 60
+    train_lookback_days = 365
+
+    regular_workers, ml_workers = build_workers(config)
+    all_worker_count = len(regular_workers) + len(ml_workers)
+
+    if all_worker_count == 0:
+        print("Nessuna strategia abilitata in strategies.yml")
+        return
+
+    client = CerberoClient()
+
+    print("=" * 70)
+    print(f"  MULTI-STRATEGY PAPER TRADER")
+    print(f"  Strategie attive: {all_worker_count}")
+    print(f"  Poll: ogni {poll_seconds}s")
+    print(f"  Data dir: {DATA_DIR}")
+    print("=" * 70)
+
+    for w in regular_workers:
+        print(f"  • {w.status_summary}")
+    for mw in ml_workers:
+        print(f"  • {mw.worker.status_summary} [ML]")
+
+    send_telegram(f"🚀 Multi-Strategy avviato: {all_worker_count} strategie")
+
+    # Raccogli asset/tf unici per fetch raggruppato
+    def _get_data_keys() -> set[tuple[str, str]]:
+        keys = set()
+        for w in regular_workers:
+            keys.add((w.asset, w.tf))
+        for mw in ml_workers:
+            keys.add((mw.worker.asset, mw.worker.tf))
+        return keys
+
+    # Training iniziale ML
+    for mw in ml_workers:
+        asset = mw.worker.asset
+        instrument = INSTRUMENT_MAP.get(asset, f"{asset}-PERPETUAL")
+        resolution = RESOLUTION_MAP.get(mw.worker.tf, "15")
+        end = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+        start = end - timedelta(days=train_lookback_days)
+        candles = client.get_historical(instrument, start.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"),
+                                         end.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"), resolution)
+        if candles:
+            df_train = pd.DataFrame(candles)
+            df_train["timestamp"] = df_train["timestamp"].astype("int64")
+            df_train = df_train.sort_values("timestamp").reset_index(drop=True)
+            mw.train(df_train, hold=mw.worker.hold_bars)
+
+    while True:
+        try:
+            data_keys = _get_data_keys()
+            candle_cache: dict[tuple[str, str], pd.DataFrame] = {}
+
+            for asset, tf in data_keys:
+                instrument = INSTRUMENT_MAP.get(asset, f"{asset}-PERPETUAL")
+                resolution = RESOLUTION_MAP.get(tf, "15")
+                end = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+                start = end - timedelta(days=lookback_days)
+
+                candles = client.get_historical(
+                    instrument, start.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"),
+                    end.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"), resolution,
+                )
+                if candles:
+                    df = pd.DataFrame(candles)
+                    df["timestamp"] = df["timestamp"].astype("int64")
+                    df = df.sort_values("timestamp").reset_index(drop=True)
+                    candle_cache[(asset, tf)] = df
+
+            # Fetch 1h live per strategie multi-timeframe (es. MT01):
+            # il trend va preso da Cerbero, non dal parquet statico (che resta indietro).
+            htf_cache: dict[str, pd.DataFrame] = {}
+            mtf_assets = {w.asset for w in regular_workers if w.strategy.name.startswith("MT01")}
+            for asset in mtf_assets:
+                instrument = INSTRUMENT_MAP.get(asset, f"{asset}-PERPETUAL")
+                end = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+                start = end - timedelta(days=lookback_days)
+                try:
+                    candles_1h = client.get_historical(
+                        instrument, start.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"),
+                        end.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"), "60",
+                    )
+                    if candles_1h:
+                        df1h = pd.DataFrame(candles_1h)
+                        df1h["timestamp"] = df1h["timestamp"].astype("int64")
+                        htf_cache[asset] = df1h.sort_values("timestamp").reset_index(drop=True)
+                except Exception as e:
+                    print(f"  [1h fetch {asset}] ERRORE: {e}")
+
+            # Tick regular workers
+            for w in regular_workers:
+                key = (w.asset, w.tf)
+                if key in candle_cache:
+                    try:
+                        w.tick(candle_cache[key], df_1h=htf_cache.get(w.asset))
+                    except Exception as e:
+                        print(f"  [{w.worker_id}] ERRORE: {e}")
+
+            # Tick ML workers
+            for mw in ml_workers:
+                key = (mw.worker.asset, mw.worker.tf)
+                if key not in candle_cache:
+                    continue
+
+                if mw.needs_training():
+                    mw.train(candle_cache[key], hold=mw.worker.hold_bars)
+
+                try:
+                    mw.tick(candle_cache[key])
+                except Exception as e:
+                    print(f"  [{mw.worker.worker_id}] ERRORE: {e}")
+
+            # Status periodico
+            now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+            if now.minute == 0 and now.second < poll_seconds:
+                lines = [f"📊 Status {now.strftime('%H:%M')} UTC"]
+                for w in regular_workers:
+                    lines.append(f"  {w.status_summary}")
+                for mw in ml_workers:
+                    lines.append(f"  {mw.worker.status_summary} [ML]")
+                send_telegram("\n".join(lines))
+
+        except KeyboardInterrupt:
+            print("\nShutdown...")
+            for w in regular_workers:
+                if w.in_position:
+                    df = candle_cache.get((w.asset, w.tf))
+                    if df is not None and not df.empty:
+                        w._close_position(float(df["close"].iloc[-1]), "shutdown")
+                w._save_state()
+            for mw in ml_workers:
+                if mw.worker.in_position:
+                    df = candle_cache.get((mw.worker.asset, mw.worker.tf))
+                    if df is not None and not df.empty:
+                        mw.worker._close_position(float(df["close"].iloc[-1]), "shutdown")
+                mw.worker._save_state()
+            send_telegram("🛑 Multi-Strategy arrestato")
+            break
+        except Exception as e:
+            print(f"  ERRORE GLOBALE: {e}")
+            import traceback
+            traceback.print_exc()
+
+        time.sleep(poll_seconds)
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    run()

src/live/paper_trader.py

@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ import pandas as pd
 
 from src.live.cerbero_client import CerberoClient
 from src.live.signal_engine import SignalEngine
+from src.live.telegram_notifier import notify_event
 
 LOG_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2] / "data" / "paper_trades"
 INSTRUMENT = "ETH_USDC-PERPETUAL"
@@ -52,6 +53,7 @@ class PaperTrader:
         with open(self.log_path, "a") as f:
             f.write(json.dumps(entry) + "\n")
         print(f"  [{entry['timestamp'][:19]}] {event}: {json.dumps(data or {})}")
+        notify_event(event, data)
 
     def save_status(self):
         status = {

src/live/signal_engine.py

@@ -112,6 +112,54 @@ class SignalEngine:
         self.squeeze_start_idx = 0
         self.trained = False
 
+    def _new_model(self) -> GradientBoostingClassifier:
+        return GradientBoostingClassifier(
+            n_estimators=150, max_depth=4, min_samples_leaf=10,
+            learning_rate=0.05, subsample=0.8, random_state=42,
+        )
+
+    def _validate_oos(self, X: np.ndarray, y: np.ndarray, test_frac: float = 0.2) -> dict:
+        """Split temporale (no shuffle) per stimare la performance out-of-sample.
+
+        Allena su training iniziale e valuta sull'ultimo `test_frac` dei campioni.
+        Oltre all'accuratezza OOS, riporta la precisione sui soli segnali con
+        confidenza >= ml_thr — cioè i trade che la strategia aprirebbe davvero.
+        """
+        n_test = int(len(X) * test_frac)
+        n_train = len(X) - n_test
+        if n_train < 30 or n_test < 5:
+            return {"oos_warning": "test set troppo piccolo", "oos_test_samples": n_test}
+
+        scaler = StandardScaler()
+        X_tr = scaler.fit_transform(X[:n_train])
+        X_te = scaler.transform(X[n_train:])
+        y_tr, y_te = y[:n_train], y[n_train:]
+
+        model = self._new_model()
+        model.fit(X_tr, y_tr)
+
+        up_idx = list(model.classes_).index(1)
+        p_up = model.predict_proba(X_te)[:, up_idx]
+        test_acc = float(np.mean((p_up >= 0.5).astype(int) == y_te) * 100)
+        oos_train_acc = float(np.mean(model.predict(X_tr) == y_tr) * 100)
+
+        long_sig = p_up >= self.ml_thr
+        short_sig = p_up <= (1 - self.ml_thr)
+        n_sig = int((long_sig | short_sig).sum())
+        if n_sig > 0:
+            correct = int(((long_sig & (y_te == 1)) | (short_sig & (y_te == 0))).sum())
+            sig_prec = round(correct / n_sig * 100, 1)
+        else:
+            sig_prec = None
+
+        return {
+            "oos_train_accuracy": round(oos_train_acc, 1),
+            "oos_test_accuracy": round(test_acc, 1),
+            "oos_test_samples": n_test,
+            "oos_signals": n_sig,
+            "oos_signal_precision": sig_prec,
+        }
+
     def train(self, df: pd.DataFrame, lookahead: int = 3) -> dict:
         """Addestra il modello su dati storici."""
         close = df["close"].values
@@ -154,20 +202,24 @@ class SignalEngine:
         X = np.array(X_all)
         y = np.array(y_all)
 
+        oos = self._validate_oos(X, y)
+
         self.scaler = StandardScaler()
         X_s = self.scaler.fit_transform(X)
 
-        self.model = GradientBoostingClassifier(
-            n_estimators=150, max_depth=4, min_samples_leaf=10,
-            learning_rate=0.05, subsample=0.8, random_state=42,
-        )
+        self.model = self._new_model()
         self.model.fit(X_s, y)
         self.trained = True
 
         preds = self.model.predict(X_s)
-        train_acc = np.mean(preds == y) * 100
+        train_acc = float(np.mean(preds == y) * 100)
 
-        return {"samples": len(X), "up_ratio": np.mean(y) * 100, "train_accuracy": train_acc}
+        return {
+            "samples": len(X),
+            "up_ratio": round(float(np.mean(y) * 100), 1),
+            "train_accuracy": round(train_acc, 1),
+            **oos,
+        }
 
     def check_signal(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> dict | None:
         """Controlla se c'è un segnale sulle ultime candele.

src/live/strategy_loader.py

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+"""Import dinamico delle classi Strategy da scripts/strategies/."""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import importlib
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy
+
+PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+STRATEGIES_DIR = PROJECT_ROOT / "scripts" / "strategies"
+
+_REGISTRY: dict[str, type[Strategy]] = {}
+
+# Solo strategie con edge netto validato out-of-sample (fee-aware).
+# La famiglia squeeze-breakout (SQ/MT/ML/AD/CM/PD) e' stata spostata in
+# scripts/waste/: l'edge storico era un artefatto di look-ahead
+# (vedi scripts/analysis/oos_validation.py).
+MODULE_MAP = {
+    "MR01_bollinger_fade": ("MR01_bollinger_fade", "BollingerFade"),
+}
+
+
+def load_strategy(name: str) -> Strategy:
+    """Carica e istanzia una Strategy per nome."""
+    if name in _REGISTRY:
+        return _REGISTRY[name]()
+
+    if name not in MODULE_MAP:
+        raise ValueError(f"Strategia sconosciuta: {name}. Disponibili: {list(MODULE_MAP)}")
+
+    module_file, class_name = MODULE_MAP[name]
+    module_path = STRATEGIES_DIR / f"{module_file}.py"
+
+    if not module_path.exists():
+        raise FileNotFoundError(f"File strategia non trovato: {module_path}")
+
+    if str(PROJECT_ROOT) not in sys.path:
+        sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
+
+    spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(f"strategies.{module_file}", module_path)
+    module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec)
+    spec.loader.exec_module(module)
+
+    cls = getattr(module, class_name)
+    _REGISTRY[name] = cls
+    return cls()
+
+
+def list_available() -> list[str]:
+    return list(MODULE_MAP.keys())

src/live/strategy_worker.py

@@ -0,0 +1,273 @@
+"""Worker per singola strategia — paper trading con stato persistente."""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
+from src.live.telegram_notifier import notify_event
+
+FEE_RT = 0.002
+
+
+class StrategyWorker:
+    """Gestisce paper trading per una singola strategia/asset/tf."""
+
+    def __init__(
+        self,
+        strategy: Strategy,
+        asset: str,
+        tf: str,
+        capital: float = 1000.0,
+        position_size: float = 0.15,
+        leverage: float = 3.0,
+        hold_bars: int = 3,
+        params: dict | None = None,
+        data_dir: Path = Path("data/paper_trades"),
+    ):
+        self.strategy = strategy
+        self.asset = asset
+        self.tf = tf
+        self.initial_capital = capital
+        self.position_size = position_size
+        self.leverage = leverage
+        self.hold_bars = hold_bars
+        self.params = params or {}
+
+        self.worker_id = f"{strategy.name}__{asset}__{tf}"
+        self.work_dir = data_dir / self.worker_id
+        self.work_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+        self.trades_path = self.work_dir / "trades.jsonl"
+        self.status_path = self.work_dir / "status.json"
+
+        self.capital = capital
+        self.in_position = False
+        self.direction: int = 0
+        self.entry_price: float = 0
+        self.entry_time: str = ""
+        self.bars_held: int = 0
+        self.total_trades: int = 0
+        self.total_wins: int = 0
+        self.started_at = datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat()
+        self.last_bar_ts: int = 0
+
+        # Exit guidati dalla strategia via Signal.metadata (0 = usa hold_bars/stop legacy)
+        self.tp: float = 0.0
+        self.sl: float = 0.0
+        self.max_bars: int = 0
+        # Fee dalla strategia (MR01 = 0.001 realistico Deribit), fallback al default modulo
+        self.fee_rt: float = float(getattr(strategy, "fee_rt", FEE_RT))
+
+        self._load_state()
+        self._save_state()
+
+    def _load_state(self):
+        """Riprende stato da status.json se esiste."""
+        if not self.status_path.exists():
+            self._log("INIT", {"capital": self.capital, "strategy": self.strategy.name,
+                               "asset": self.asset, "tf": self.tf})
+            return
+
+        with open(self.status_path) as f:
+            state = json.load(f)
+
+        self.capital = state.get("capital", self.initial_capital)
+        self.in_position = state.get("in_position", False)
+        self.direction = state.get("direction", 0)
+        self.entry_price = state.get("entry_price", 0)
+        self.entry_time = state.get("entry_time", "")
+        self.bars_held = state.get("bars_held", 0)
+        self.total_trades = state.get("total_trades", 0)
+        self.total_wins = state.get("total_wins", 0)
+        self.started_at = state.get("started_at", self.started_at)
+        self.last_bar_ts = state.get("last_bar_ts", 0)
+        self.tp = state.get("tp", 0.0)
+        self.sl = state.get("sl", 0.0)
+        self.max_bars = state.get("max_bars", 0)
+
+        self._log("RESUME", {"capital": round(self.capital, 2),
+                              "total_trades": self.total_trades,
+                              "in_position": self.in_position})
+
+    def _save_state(self):
+        state = {
+            "capital": round(self.capital, 2),
+            "in_position": self.in_position,
+            "direction": self.direction,
+            "entry_price": self.entry_price,
+            "entry_time": self.entry_time,
+            "bars_held": self.bars_held,
+            "total_trades": self.total_trades,
+            "total_wins": self.total_wins,
+            "started_at": self.started_at,
+            "last_bar_ts": self.last_bar_ts,
+            "tp": self.tp,
+            "sl": self.sl,
+            "max_bars": self.max_bars,
+            "last_update": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
+        }
+        with open(self.status_path, "w") as f:
+            json.dump(state, f, indent=2)
+
+    def _log(self, event: str, data: dict | None = None):
+        entry = {
+            "ts": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
+            "worker": self.worker_id,
+            "event": event,
+            **(data or {}),
+        }
+        with open(self.trades_path, "a") as f:
+            f.write(json.dumps(entry) + "\n")
+        print(f"  [{self.worker_id}] {event}: {json.dumps(data or {}, default=str)}")
+
+    def _notify(self, event: str, data: dict | None = None):
+        enriched = {"worker": self.worker_id, **(data or {})}
+        notify_event(event, enriched)
+
+    def _open_position(self, signal: Signal, current_price: float):
+        notional = self.capital * self.position_size * self.leverage
+        size = notional / current_price if current_price > 0 else 0
+
+        self.in_position = True
+        self.direction = signal.direction
+        self.entry_price = current_price
+        self.entry_time = datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat()
+        self.bars_held = 0
+
+        meta = signal.metadata or {}
+        self.tp = float(meta.get("tp", 0.0) or 0.0)
+        self.sl = float(meta.get("sl", 0.0) or 0.0)
+        self.max_bars = int(meta.get("max_bars", 0) or 0)
+
+        trade_data = {
+            "direction": "long" if signal.direction == 1 else "short",
+            "price": round(current_price, 2),
+            "size": round(size, 6),
+            "notional": round(notional, 2),
+            "capital": round(self.capital, 2),
+            "tp": round(self.tp, 2) if self.tp else None,
+            "sl": round(self.sl, 2) if self.sl else None,
+        }
+        self._log("OPEN", trade_data)
+        self._notify("OPENED", trade_data)
+
+    def _close_position(self, current_price: float, reason: str):
+        if not self.in_position:
+            return
+
+        price_change = (current_price - self.entry_price) / self.entry_price
+        trade_return = price_change * self.direction
+        net = trade_return * self.leverage - self.fee_rt * self.leverage
+        pnl = self.capital * self.position_size * net
+
+        is_win = trade_return > 0
+        self.capital += pnl
+        self.capital = max(self.capital, 0)
+        self.total_trades += 1
+        if is_win:
+            self.total_wins += 1
+
+        accuracy = self.total_wins / self.total_trades * 100 if self.total_trades > 0 else 0
+
+        trade_data = {
+            "reason": reason,
+            "direction": "long" if self.direction == 1 else "short",
+            "entry": round(self.entry_price, 2),
+            "exit": round(current_price, 2),
+            "pnl": round(pnl, 2),
+            "net_return": round(net * 100, 3),
+            "capital": round(self.capital, 2),
+            "bars_held": self.bars_held,
+            "win": is_win,
+            "total_trades": self.total_trades,
+            "accuracy": round(accuracy, 1),
+        }
+        self._log("CLOSE", trade_data)
+        self._notify("CLOSED", trade_data)
+
+        self.in_position = False
+        self.direction = 0
+        self.entry_price = 0
+        self.entry_time = ""
+        self.bars_held = 0
+        self.tp = 0.0
+        self.sl = 0.0
+        self.max_bars = 0
+
+    def tick(self, df: pd.DataFrame, df_1h: pd.DataFrame | None = None):
+        """Chiamato ad ogni poll con DataFrame OHLCV aggiornato.
+
+        df_1h: serie 1h live opzionale per strategie multi-timeframe (es. MT01),
+        passata ai generate_signals via params. Se None la strategia ricade sul
+        parquet statico.
+        """
+        if df.empty or len(df) < 100:
+            return
+
+        c = df["close"].values
+        current_price = float(c[-1])
+        current_ts = int(df["timestamp"].iloc[-1])
+        ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+
+        if self.in_position:
+            if current_ts > self.last_bar_ts:
+                self.bars_held += 1
+                self.last_bar_ts = current_ts
+
+            if self.tp and self.sl:
+                # Exit guidati dalla strategia: SL (conservativo, prima), poi TP, poi time-limit
+                if self.direction == 1:
+                    if current_price <= self.sl:
+                        self._close_position(current_price, "stop_loss")
+                    elif current_price >= self.tp:
+                        self._close_position(current_price, "take_profit")
+                    elif self.max_bars and self.bars_held >= self.max_bars:
+                        self._close_position(current_price, "time_limit")
+                else:
+                    if current_price >= self.sl:
+                        self._close_position(current_price, "stop_loss")
+                    elif current_price <= self.tp:
+                        self._close_position(current_price, "take_profit")
+                    elif self.max_bars and self.bars_held >= self.max_bars:
+                        self._close_position(current_price, "time_limit")
+            elif self.bars_held >= self.hold_bars:
+                self._close_position(current_price, "hold_limit")
+            else:
+                pnl_pct = (current_price - self.entry_price) / self.entry_price * self.direction
+                if pnl_pct <= -0.02:
+                    self._close_position(current_price, "stop_loss")
+
+            self._save_state()
+            return
+
+        # Genera segnali
+        extra = dict(self.params)
+        if df_1h is not None:
+            extra["df_1h"] = df_1h
+        signals = self.strategy.generate_signals(
+            df, ts, asset=self.asset, tf=self.tf, **extra
+        )
+
+        if not signals:
+            self._save_state()
+            return
+
+        last_signal = signals[-1]
+        last_idx = len(df) - 1
+
+        if last_signal.idx >= last_idx - 1:
+            self._open_position(last_signal, current_price)
+            self.last_bar_ts = current_ts
+
+        self._save_state()
+
+    @property
+    def status_summary(self) -> str:
+        acc = self.total_wins / self.total_trades * 100 if self.total_trades > 0 else 0
+        pos = "LONG" if self.direction == 1 else "SHORT" if self.direction == -1 else "FLAT"
+        return (f"{self.worker_id}: €{self.capital:.0f} | {self.total_trades}t "
+                f"{acc:.0f}% | {pos}")

src/live/telegram_notifier.py

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+"""Notifiche Telegram per il paper trader."""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import os
+import urllib.request
+import urllib.parse
+import json
+
+BOT_TOKEN = os.environ.get("TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN", "")
+CHAT_ID = os.environ.get("TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID", "")
+
+NOTIFY_EVENTS = {
+    "SIGNAL", "OPENED", "CLOSED", "OPEN_FAILED", "CLOSE_FAILED",
+    "ERROR", "STARTUP", "SHUTDOWN", "TRAINING_FAILED",
+}
+
+
+def send_telegram(text: str) -> bool:
+    if not BOT_TOKEN or not CHAT_ID:
+        return False
+    try:
+        url = f"https://api.telegram.org/bot{BOT_TOKEN}/sendMessage"
+        data = urllib.parse.urlencode({"chat_id": CHAT_ID, "text": text, "parse_mode": "HTML"}).encode()
+        urllib.request.urlopen(url, data, timeout=10)
+        return True
+    except Exception:
+        return False
+
+
+def notify_event(event: str, data: dict | None = None):
+    if event not in NOTIFY_EVENTS:
+        return
+    lines = [f"📊 <b>{event}</b>"]
+    if data:
+        for k, v in data.items():
+            if k in ("signal",):
+                continue
+            lines.append(f"  {k}: {v}")
+    send_telegram("\n".join(lines))

src/strategies/__init__.py

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+"""Strategie di trading — classe base e indicatori condivisi."""
+from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats
+from src.strategies.indicators import (
+    keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes, ema, atr, rv_annualized, rolling_correlation,
+)
+
+__all__ = [
+    "Strategy", "Signal", "BacktestResult", "YearlyStats",
+    "keltner_ratio", "detect_squeezes", "ema", "atr",
+    "rv_annualized", "rolling_correlation",
+]

src/strategies/base.py

@@ -0,0 +1,243 @@
+"""Classe base astratta per tutte le strategie di trading."""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from abc import ABC, abstractmethod
+from dataclasses import dataclass, field
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from src.data.downloader import load_data
+
+
+@dataclass
+class Signal:
+    """Segnale di trading generato da una strategia."""
+    idx: int
+    direction: int          # +1 long, -1 short
+    entry_price: float
+    metadata: dict = field(default_factory=dict)
+
+
+@dataclass
+class YearlyStats:
+    year: int
+    trades: int
+    wins: int
+    pnl: float
+
+    @property
+    def accuracy(self) -> float:
+        return self.wins / self.trades * 100 if self.trades > 0 else 0.0
+
+
+@dataclass
+class BacktestResult:
+    """Risultato completo di un backtest."""
+    strategy_name: str
+    asset: str
+    timeframe: str
+    params: dict
+
+    trades: int
+    wins: int
+    pnl: float
+    capital: float
+    initial_capital: float
+    max_dd: float
+    time_in_market_pct: float
+    avg_trade_duration_h: float
+    years_active: int
+    yearly: list[YearlyStats]
+
+    @property
+    def accuracy(self) -> float:
+        return self.wins / self.trades * 100 if self.trades > 0 else 0.0
+
+    @property
+    def sharpe(self) -> float:
+        pnls = []
+        for ys in self.yearly:
+            pnls.append(ys.pnl)
+        if len(pnls) < 2 or np.std(pnls) == 0:
+            return 0.0
+        return float(np.mean(pnls) / np.std(pnls) * np.sqrt(len(pnls)))
+
+    @property
+    def daily_pnl(self) -> float:
+        return self.pnl / (self.years_active * 365) if self.years_active > 0 else 0.0
+
+    @property
+    def worst_year(self) -> YearlyStats | None:
+        valid = [y for y in self.yearly if y.trades >= 10]
+        if not valid:
+            valid = self.yearly
+        return min(valid, key=lambda y: y.accuracy) if valid else None
+
+    def print_summary(self):
+        worst = self.worst_year
+        worst_str = f"{worst.year}({worst.accuracy:.0f}%)" if worst else "N/A"
+        dur = f"{self.avg_trade_duration_h:.0f}h" if self.avg_trade_duration_h >= 1 else f"{self.avg_trade_duration_h * 60:.0f}m"
+        print(f"  {self.strategy_name:<30s} {self.asset:>3s} {self.timeframe:>3s} "
+              f"{self.trades:>5d}t {self.accuracy:>5.1f}% "
+              f"€{self.pnl:>+9.0f} DD {self.max_dd:>4.1f}% "
+              f"€/d {self.daily_pnl:>+6.2f} "
+              f"Mkt {self.time_in_market_pct:>4.1f}% {dur:>5s} "
+              f"worst={worst_str} {self.years_active}y")
+
+    def print_yearly(self):
+        print(f"\n  {self.strategy_name} [{self.asset} {self.timeframe}] — per anno:")
+        print(f"  {'Anno':>6s} {'Trades':>7s} {'Acc':>6s} {'PnL€':>9s}")
+        for ys in sorted(self.yearly, key=lambda y: y.year):
+            print(f"  {ys.year:>6d} {ys.trades:>7d} {ys.accuracy:>5.1f}% €{ys.pnl:>+8.0f}")
+
+
+TF_MINUTES = {"1m": 1, "5m": 5, "15m": 15, "1h": 60, "4h": 240, "1d": 1440}
+
+
+class Strategy(ABC):
+    """Classe base per tutte le strategie.
+
+    Sottoclassi devono implementare:
+      - name, description, default_assets, default_timeframes
+      - generate_signals(df, timestamps, **params) -> list[Signal]
+    """
+
+    name: str = "unnamed"
+    description: str = ""
+    default_assets: list[str] = ["BTC", "ETH"]
+    default_timeframes: list[str] = ["15m", "1h"]
+
+    # Parametri di backtest
+    fee_rt: float = 0.002
+    leverage: float = 3.0
+    position_size: float = 0.15
+    initial_capital: float = 1000.0
+
+    @abstractmethod
+    def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
+                         **params) -> list[Signal]:
+        """Genera segnali di trading dal dataframe OHLCV.
+
+        Args:
+            df: DataFrame con colonne open, high, low, close, volume, timestamp
+            ts: DatetimeIndex UTC dei timestamp
+            **params: parametri specifici della strategia
+
+        Returns:
+            Lista di Signal con idx, direction, entry_price
+        """
+        ...
+
+    def backtest(self, asset: str, tf: str, hold: int = 3,
+                 **params) -> BacktestResult | None:
+        """Esegue backtest su un asset/timeframe."""
+        df = load_data(asset, tf)
+        c = df["close"].values
+        n = len(c)
+        ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+
+        sig_params = {**params, "asset": asset, "tf": tf}
+        signals = self.generate_signals(df, ts, **sig_params)
+        if not signals:
+            return None
+
+        yearly: dict[int, dict] = {}
+        capital = float(self.initial_capital)
+        peak = capital
+        max_dd = 0.0
+        total_bars = 0
+
+        for sig in signals:
+            i = sig.idx
+            if i + hold >= n or i < 1:
+                continue
+
+            entry = sig.entry_price
+            exit_price = c[min(i + hold - 1, n - 1)]
+            actual = (exit_price - entry) / entry * sig.direction
+            net = actual * self.leverage - self.fee_rt * self.leverage
+
+            capital += capital * self.position_size * net
+            capital = max(capital, 10)
+            if capital > peak:
+                peak = capital
+            dd = (peak - capital) / peak
+            max_dd = max(max_dd, dd)
+            total_bars += hold
+
+            year = ts.iloc[i].year
+            if year not in yearly:
+                yearly[year] = {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnl": 0.0}
+            yearly[year]["t"] += 1
+            if actual > 0:
+                yearly[year]["w"] += 1
+            yearly[year]["pnl"] += net * self.initial_capital
+
+        all_t = sum(d["t"] for d in yearly.values())
+        all_w = sum(d["w"] for d in yearly.values())
+        if all_t == 0:
+            return None
+
+        yearly_stats = [
+            YearlyStats(year=y, trades=d["t"], wins=d["w"], pnl=d["pnl"])
+            for y, d in sorted(yearly.items())
+        ]
+
+        return BacktestResult(
+            strategy_name=self.name,
+            asset=asset,
+            timeframe=tf,
+            params=params,
+            trades=all_t,
+            wins=all_w,
+            pnl=sum(d["pnl"] for d in yearly.values()),
+            capital=capital,
+            initial_capital=self.initial_capital,
+            max_dd=max_dd * 100,
+            time_in_market_pct=total_bars / n * 100,
+            avg_trade_duration_h=hold * TF_MINUTES.get(tf, 60) / 60,
+            years_active=len(yearly),
+            yearly=yearly_stats,
+        )
+
+    def run_all(self, assets: list[str] | None = None,
+                timeframes: list[str] | None = None,
+                hold: int = 3, **params) -> list[BacktestResult]:
+        """Esegue backtest su tutte le combinazioni asset/timeframe."""
+        assets = assets or self.default_assets
+        timeframes = timeframes or self.default_timeframes
+        results = []
+        for asset in assets:
+            for tf in timeframes:
+                r = self.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **params)
+                if r and r.trades >= 20:
+                    results.append(r)
+        results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)
+        return results
+
+    def report(self, results: list[BacktestResult] | None = None,
+               assets: list[str] | None = None,
+               timeframes: list[str] | None = None,
+               hold: int = 3, **params):
+        """Esegue e stampa report completo."""
+        if results is None:
+            results = self.run_all(assets, timeframes, hold, **params)
+
+        print(f"\n{'=' * 120}")
+        print(f"  {self.name} — {self.description}")
+        print(f"  Fee: {self.fee_rt*100:.1f}% RT | Leva: {self.leverage:.0f}x | Pos: {self.position_size*100:.0f}%")
+        print(f"{'=' * 120}")
+        print(f"  {'Nome':<30s} {'A/T':>7s} {'Trades':>6s} {'Acc':>6s} "
+              f"{'PnL€':>10s} {'DD%':>6s} {'€/day':>7s} "
+              f"{'Mkt%':>5s} {'Dur':>5s} {'Worst':>12s} {'Anni':>4s}")
+        print(f"  {'─' * 110}")
+
+        for r in results:
+            r.print_summary()
+
+        if results:
+            best = results[0]
+            best.print_yearly()
+
+        return results

src/strategies/indicators.py

@@ -0,0 +1,102 @@
+"""Indicatori tecnici condivisi tra tutte le strategie."""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import numpy as np
+
+
+def keltner_ratio(close: np.ndarray, high: np.ndarray, low: np.ndarray,
+                  window: int = 14) -> np.ndarray:
+    """Rapporto Bollinger / Keltner. Sotto 1 = squeeze (BB dentro KC)."""
+    n = len(close)
+    r = np.full(n, np.nan)
+    for i in range(window, n):
+        wc = close[i - window:i]
+        wh = high[i - window:i]
+        wl = low[i - window:i]
+        ma = np.mean(wc)
+        bb_std = np.std(wc)
+        tr = np.maximum(
+            wh - wl,
+            np.maximum(np.abs(wh - np.roll(wc, 1)), np.abs(wl - np.roll(wc, 1))),
+        )
+        atr = np.mean(tr[1:])
+        kc = (ma + 1.5 * atr) - (ma - 1.5 * atr)
+        bb = (ma + 2 * bb_std) - (ma - 2 * bb_std)
+        if kc > 0:
+            r[i] = bb / kc
+    return r
+
+
+def detect_squeezes(close: np.ndarray, high: np.ndarray, low: np.ndarray,
+                    kcr: np.ndarray, sq_thr: float = 0.8,
+                    min_dur: int = 5) -> list[dict]:
+    """Rileva squeeze events: periodi dove BB sta dentro KC."""
+    events: list[dict] = []
+    in_sq = False
+    sq_start = 0
+    for i in range(1, len(close)):
+        if np.isnan(kcr[i]):
+            continue
+        is_sq = kcr[i] < sq_thr
+        if is_sq and not in_sq:
+            in_sq = True
+            sq_start = i
+        elif not is_sq and in_sq:
+            in_sq = False
+            dur = i - sq_start
+            if dur < min_dur:
+                continue
+            events.append({
+                "idx": i, "dur": dur, "sq_start": sq_start,
+                "kcr_at_release": kcr[i],
+            })
+    return events
+
+
+def ema(arr: np.ndarray, period: int) -> np.ndarray:
+    """Exponential Moving Average."""
+    r = np.full(len(arr), np.nan)
+    k = 2 / (period + 1)
+    r[period - 1] = np.mean(arr[:period])
+    for i in range(period, len(arr)):
+        r[i] = arr[i] * k + r[i - 1] * (1 - k)
+    return r
+
+
+def atr(high: np.ndarray, low: np.ndarray, close: np.ndarray,
+        period: int = 14) -> np.ndarray:
+    """Average True Range (EMA-smoothed)."""
+    tr = np.maximum(
+        high - low,
+        np.maximum(np.abs(high - np.roll(close, 1)), np.abs(low - np.roll(close, 1))),
+    )
+    tr[0] = high[0] - low[0]
+    r = np.full(len(close), np.nan)
+    r[period - 1] = np.mean(tr[:period])
+    k = 2 / (period + 1)
+    for i in range(period, len(close)):
+        r[i] = tr[i] * k + r[i - 1] * (1 - k)
+    return r
+
+
+def rv_annualized(close: np.ndarray, window: int) -> np.ndarray:
+    """Realized volatility annualizzata (hourly data assumed)."""
+    lr = np.diff(np.log(np.where(close == 0, 1e-10, close)))
+    r = np.full(len(close), np.nan)
+    for i in range(window, len(lr)):
+        r[i + 1] = np.std(lr[i - window:i]) * np.sqrt(24 * 365)
+    return r
+
+
+def rolling_correlation(close_a: np.ndarray, close_b: np.ndarray,
+                        window: int = 48) -> np.ndarray:
+    """Correlazione rolling tra rendimenti logaritmici di due asset."""
+    n = max(len(close_a), len(close_b))
+    ret_a = np.diff(np.log(np.where(close_a == 0, 1e-10, close_a)))
+    ret_b = np.diff(np.log(np.where(close_b[:len(close_a)] == 0, 1e-10, close_b[:len(close_a)])))
+    min_len = min(len(ret_a), len(ret_b))
+    corr = np.full(n, np.nan)
+    for i in range(window, min_len):
+        cv = np.corrcoef(ret_a[i - window:i], ret_b[i - window:i])[0, 1]
+        corr[i + 1] = cv if np.isfinite(cv) else 0
+    return corr

strategies.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+defaults:
+  capital: 1000
+  position_size: 0.15
+  leverage: 3
+  hold_bars: 3
+  poll_seconds: 60
+  retrain_hours: 24
+
+# Solo MR01 Bollinger fade (mean-reversion): unica con edge netto validato
+# out-of-sample e fee-aware. La famiglia squeeze e' in scripts/waste/.
+# ATTENZIONE: MR01 esce su TP-alla-media / SL-ad-ATR / max_bars (vedi metadata
+# dei Signal). Lo StrategyWorker attuale esce solo a hold_bars/stop -2% fisso:
+# va aggiornato per usare gli exit in metadata PRIMA di tradare MR01 dal vivo.
+strategies:
+  - name: MR01_bollinger_fade
+    asset: BTC
+    tf: 1h
+    enabled: true
+    params:
+      bb_window: 50
+      k: 2.5
+      sl_atr: 2.0
+      max_bars: 24
+
+  # ETH: edge positivo ma DD piu' alto (~70%); leva piu' bassa consigliata
+  - name: MR01_bollinger_fade
+    asset: ETH
+    tf: 1h
+    enabled: true
+    params:
+      bb_window: 50
+      k: 2.5
+      sl_atr: 2.0
+      max_bars: 24

uv.lock

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 [[package]]
@@ -2057,6 +2057,7 @@ dependencies = [
     { name = "numpy" },
     { name = "pandas" },
     { name = "pyarrow" },
+    { name = "pyyaml" },
     { name = "requests" },
     { name = "scikit-learn" },
     { name = "scipy" },
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     { name = "pytest", marker = "extra == 'dev'", specifier = ">=8.0" },
     { name = "pytest-asyncio", marker = "extra == 'dev'", specifier = ">=0.24" },
+    { name = "pyyaml", specifier = ">=6.0" },
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