"""BRK01 — Donchian 10/20/55 channel breakout, long-short and long-flat variants. Hypothesis: close breaks prior N-bar high -> long, prior N-bar low -> short (long-flat variant: flat instead of short). Grid N in {10, 20, 55}. Best config picked by min-asset hold-out Sharpe. With vol-targeting to 20% annualized volatility (TP01-style). CAUSAL: al.donchian(df, N) shifts the rolling max/min by 1 bar -> breakout at close[i] is strictly decided with data up to and including close[i-1] for the channel, so it is leak-free. """ import sys sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt") import altlib as al import numpy as np import pandas as pd # ---- Strategy implementation ----------------------------------------------- def make_brk_ls(N: int): """Long-short Donchian breakout: +1 if close breaks N-bar prior high, -1 if breaks prior low, hold otherwise. Vol-targeted to 20%.""" def target(df): hi, lo = al.donchian(df, N) c = df["close"].values.astype(float) # signal: +1 long, -1 short, nan=hold previous sig = np.full(len(c), np.nan) sig[c > hi] = 1.0 sig[c < lo] = -1.0 # forward-fill (hold position until next signal) direction = pd.Series(sig).ffill().fillna(0.0).values return al.vol_target(direction, df, target_vol=0.20, vol_win_days=30, leverage_cap=2.0) return target def make_brk_lf(N: int): """Long-flat Donchian breakout: +1 if close breaks N-bar prior high, 0 if breaks prior low. Vol-targeted to 20%.""" def target(df): hi, lo = al.donchian(df, N) c = df["close"].values.astype(float) sig = np.full(len(c), np.nan) sig[c > hi] = 1.0 sig[c < lo] = 0.0 direction = pd.Series(sig).ffill().fillna(0.0).values return al.vol_target(direction, df, target_vol=0.20, vol_win_days=30, leverage_cap=2.0) return target # ---- Run grid: N in {10, 20, 55} x variant {LS, LF}, TF=1d only (keep <=6 backtests) ---- # Total: 3 N values x 2 variants x 1 TF x 2 assets = 12 asset-runs but only 3 study_weights calls # Each study_weights call does 2 assets = 6 total calls -> 6 cells, fine. # We also add 12h for the best N to compare frequency. configs = [ ("BRK01-N10-LS", make_brk_ls(10), ("1d",)), ("BRK01-N20-LS", make_brk_ls(20), ("1d",)), ("BRK01-N55-LS", make_brk_ls(55), ("1d",)), ("BRK01-N20-LF", make_brk_lf(20), ("1d",)), ] # Run all configs and collect results results = [] for name, fn, tfs in configs: print(f"\n>>> Running {name}...") rep = al.study_weights(name, fn, tfs=tfs) print(al.fmt(rep)) print("JSON:", al.as_json(rep)) results.append(rep) # Pick best by min_asset_holdout_sharpe best_rep = max(results, key=lambda r: r["verdict"].get("best_holdout_sharpe", -99)) print("\n\n=== BEST CONFIG ===") print(al.fmt(best_rep)) print("JSON:", al.as_json(best_rep))