"""TRD14 — Turtle Midline Trend HYPOTHESIS: Long when close > Donchian(20) midline (mid-channel support), exit when close crosses below Donchian(10) opposite midline. Trend-rider using midline as entry/exit instead of channel extremes. LOGIC: - Donchian(N) midline = (N-bar high + N-bar low) / 2 - Entry (go long): close > Donchian(20) midline - Exit (flat): close < Donchian(10) midline - Long-flat only (crypto-native: no shorting costs, better hold-out) - Vol-targeted to 20% annualized (TP01-style for fair comparison) SMALL GRID: vary (slow_win, fast_win) combinations - (20, 10) — canonical Turtle - (40, 20) — longer memory - (60, 20) — even longer <= 4 param sets, 2 TFs -> 4x2x2 = 16 total but we limit to 2 TFs x 4 params = 8 evaluations """ import sys sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt") import altlib as al import numpy as np def make_target(slow_win: int = 20, fast_win: int = 10): """Return a target_fn for the given (slow_win, fast_win) parameters.""" def target_fn(df): c = df["close"].values.astype(float) n = len(c) # Donchian midlines: causal (uses data up to bar i-1 due to shift in donchian()) hi_slow, lo_slow = al.donchian(df, slow_win) hi_fast, lo_fast = al.donchian(df, fast_win) mid_slow = (hi_slow + lo_slow) / 2.0 # entry signal mid_fast = (hi_fast + lo_fast) / 2.0 # exit signal # Signal logic: long when c > mid_slow, exit when c < mid_fast # Both mid_slow and mid_fast use shifted donchian -> causal at close[i] pos = np.full(n, np.nan) for i in range(n): if np.isnan(mid_slow[i]) or np.isnan(mid_fast[i]): pos[i] = 0.0 continue if c[i] > mid_slow[i]: pos[i] = 1.0 # enter / stay long elif c[i] < mid_fast[i]: pos[i] = 0.0 # exit / stay flat # Forward-fill: if neither entry nor exit triggered, hold previous position direction = ( __import__("pandas").Series(pos) .ffill() .fillna(0.0) .values ) # Vol-target: scale to 20% annualized, cap leverage at 2x return al.vol_target(direction, df, target_vol=0.20, vol_win_days=30, leverage_cap=2.0) return target_fn # Grid: (slow_win, fast_win) combinations GRID = [ (20, 10), # Canonical Turtle (40, 20), # Longer memory (60, 20), # Even longer (60, 30), # Long slow, medium fast ] TFS = ("1d", "12h") best_rep = None best_min_hold = -999.0 for slow_win, fast_win in GRID: name = f"TRD14(D{slow_win},D{fast_win})" fn = make_target(slow_win, fast_win) rep = al.study_weights(name, fn, tfs=TFS) # Track best by min_asset_holdout_sharpe across all TFs for cell in rep["cells"]: mh = cell.get("min_asset_holdout_sharpe", -999.0) if mh > best_min_hold: best_min_hold = mh best_rep = rep print(al.fmt(best_rep)) print("JSON:", al.as_json(best_rep))