"""CMB05 — BB Squeeze -> Breakout (honest, leak-free). HYPOTHESIS: Bollinger Bandwidth at a multi-bar low (squeeze) then close > upper BB -> enter long at that close (entry at close[i], direction decided with data<=close[i]). Exit when close drops back below middle band, or max_bars reached, or SL hit. Tested on 1d only (study_signals, discrete). Small grid on: - BB window: 20 vs 30 - Squeeze lookback: 50 vs 100 Total configs: 4 — two assets each => 8 backtests. Within budget. """ import sys sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt") import altlib as al import numpy as np import pandas as pd def make_entries(bb_win: int = 20, squeeze_lb: int = 50, squeeze_pct: float = 0.20, sl_mult: float = 2.0, max_bars: int = 30): """ Returns entries_fn(df) -> list[dict|None] for study_signals. Squeeze = BB bandwidth (upper-lower)/middle in lowest squeeze_pct quantile over squeeze_lb bars. Breakout = close[i] > upper[i] AND bandwidth is in compressed regime. Entry: long at close[i], honest (direction decided with close[i]). Exit: close < middle band (continuous) OR max_bars OR SL at entry - sl_mult*ATR. """ def entries_fn(df): c = df["close"].values.astype(float) n = len(c) # BB bands - causal (uses data up to i) upper, mid, lower = al.bbands(c, win=bb_win, k=2.0) # Bandwidth bw = np.where(mid != 0, (upper - lower) / mid, np.nan) # Squeeze: bandwidth in lowest squeeze_pct percentile over squeeze_lb bars (causal) # Use rolling quantile to flag "compressed" bandwidth bw_series = pd.Series(bw) bw_lo = bw_series.rolling(squeeze_lb, min_periods=squeeze_lb).quantile(squeeze_pct).values # ATR for SL atr_arr = al.atr(df, win=14) entries = [None] * n in_trade = False for i in range(squeeze_lb + bb_win, n): if np.isnan(upper[i]) or np.isnan(bw_lo[i]) or np.isnan(atr_arr[i]): continue if not np.isfinite(bw[i]): continue # Squeeze: bandwidth <= its rolling low-percentile threshold is_squeeze = bw[i] <= bw_lo[i] # Breakout: close[i] > upper[i] (decided at close[i], honest) breakout = c[i] > upper[i] if (not in_trade) and is_squeeze and breakout: sl_px = c[i] - sl_mult * atr_arr[i] entries[i] = { "dir": +1, "tp": None, "sl": sl_px, "max_bars": max_bars, } in_trade = True elif in_trade: # Exit signal: close falls below middle band -> reset flag if c[i] < mid[i]: in_trade = False return entries return entries_fn # Grid: 4 configs (2 bb_win x 2 squeeze_pct) with fixed squeeze_lb=100 configs = [ dict(bb_win=20, squeeze_lb=100, squeeze_pct=0.20), dict(bb_win=20, squeeze_lb=100, squeeze_pct=0.30), dict(bb_win=30, squeeze_lb=100, squeeze_pct=0.20), dict(bb_win=30, squeeze_lb=100, squeeze_pct=0.30), ] best_rep = None best_score = -999.0 print("=== CMB05: BB Squeeze -> Breakout ===") print(f"Grid: {len(configs)} configs x 2 assets x fee_sweep = honest eval\n") for cfg in configs: name = f"CMB05-BB{cfg['bb_win']}-SQ{cfg['squeeze_lb']}-P{int(cfg['squeeze_pct']*100)}" fn = make_entries(bb_win=cfg["bb_win"], squeeze_lb=cfg["squeeze_lb"], squeeze_pct=cfg["squeeze_pct"]) rep = al.study_signals(name, fn, tfs=("1d",)) v = rep["verdict"] score = v.get("best_holdout_sharpe", -9) print(f" {name}: grade={v['grade']} fullSh={v.get('best_full_sharpe'):.3f} holdSh={v.get('best_holdout_sharpe'):.3f}") if score > best_score: best_score = score best_rep = rep best_rep["_cfg"] = cfg print("\n--- BEST CONFIG ---") print(al.fmt(best_rep)) print("JSON:", al.as_json(best_rep))