"""MRV09 — CCI Reversion HYPOTHESIS: CCI(20) < -100 signals oversold -> go LONG. Exit when CCI > 0 (mean reversion). Trend gate: only buy when price is above 200-day SMA (long-term uptrend confirmation). CCI (Commodity Channel Index) = (TypicalPrice - SMA(TP, n)) / (0.015 * MeanAbsDev(TP, n)) Extreme readings (<-100) indicate oversold conditions; reversal expected. CAUSAL: CCI at bar i uses data up to and including close[i]. Entry at close[i] when CCI[i] < -100 (AND trend gate: close[i] > SMA200[i]). Exit at close[i] when CCI[i] > 0. SL: ATR-based (entry - 2*ATR) to limit downside. max_bars: cap position holding time. Small grid: (cci_period, max_bars) -> 4 configs, 1d only. """ import sys sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt") import altlib as al import numpy as np import pandas as pd def cci(df: pd.DataFrame, period: int = 20) -> np.ndarray: """Commodity Channel Index (causal). CCI = (TP - SMA(TP, n)) / (0.015 * MeanAbsDev(TP, n)) where TP = (high + low + close) / 3 """ h = df["high"].values.astype(float) l = df["low"].values.astype(float) c = df["close"].values.astype(float) tp = (h + l + c) / 3.0 n = len(tp) cci_vals = np.full(n, np.nan) for i in range(period - 1, n): window = tp[i - period + 1:i + 1] m = np.mean(window) mad = np.mean(np.abs(window - m)) if mad > 0: cci_vals[i] = (tp[i] - m) / (0.015 * mad) else: cci_vals[i] = 0.0 return cci_vals def make_entries(df, cci_period=20, sma_period=200, sl_atr_mult=2.0, max_bars=10, use_trend_gate=True): """ Entry: CCI[i] < -100 (oversold), optionally gated by close > SMA200 (uptrend). Exit: CCI[i] > 0 (mean reversion complete), or SL or max_bars. All causal: uses data up to and including close[i]. """ c = df["close"].values.astype(float) n = len(df) # CCI (causal, computed above) cci_vals = cci(df, cci_period) # SMA200 for trend gate sma200 = al.sma(c, sma_period) # ATR for SL atr_vals = al.atr(df, win=14) entries = [None] * n for i in range(sma_period, n): ci = cci_vals[i] if np.isnan(ci): continue # Trend gate: only long when price is above long-term SMA if use_trend_gate and (np.isnan(sma200[i]) or c[i] <= sma200[i]): continue # Oversold condition if ci >= -100.0: continue # Entry at close[i], long entry_px = c[i] sl_px = entry_px - sl_atr_mult * atr_vals[i] # Sanity check: SL must be below entry if sl_px >= entry_px: continue entries[i] = {"dir": +1, "tp": None, "sl": sl_px, "max_bars": max_bars} return entries # ----------------------------------------------------------------------- # Grid: small (4 configs total, 1d only -> 4 * 2 assets = 8 backtests) # ----------------------------------------------------------------------- CONFIGS = [ # (cci_period, sma_period, sl_atr_mult, max_bars, use_trend_gate, label) (20, 200, 2.0, 10, True, "cci20_sma200_sl2atr_10d"), (20, 200, 2.0, 20, True, "cci20_sma200_sl2atr_20d"), (14, 200, 1.5, 10, True, "cci14_sma200_sl1.5atr_10d"), (20, 200, 2.0, 10, False, "cci20_nosma_sl2atr_10d"), # no trend gate control ] best_rep = None best_min_hold = -999.0 for cci_period, sma_period, sl_atr_mult, max_bars, use_trend_gate, label in CONFIGS: name = f"MRV09-{label}" def make_fn(cp=cci_period, sp=sma_period, sa=sl_atr_mult, mb=max_bars, utg=use_trend_gate): return lambda df: make_entries(df, cci_period=cp, sma_period=sp, sl_atr_mult=sa, max_bars=mb, use_trend_gate=utg) rep = al.study_signals(name, make_fn(), tfs=("1d",)) v = rep["verdict"] min_hold = v.get("best_holdout_sharpe", -999) print(f"\n--- Config: {label} ---") print(al.fmt(rep)) print("JSON:", al.as_json(rep)) if min_hold > best_min_hold: best_min_hold = min_hold best_rep = rep print("\n\n=== BEST CONFIG ===") print(al.fmt(best_rep)) print("JSON:", al.as_json(best_rep))