"""TRD13 — SMA200 regime + vol-target (long-flat). HYPOTHESIS: Long when close > SMA200, flat otherwise. Position sized by vol_target(20%, 30d). Pure regime-trend. Small grid: SMA window {150, 200} x vol_target window {20, 30} days. Only 2 param sets tested (4 total cells with BTC/ETH) to stay within budget. Best config selected by min(BTC, ETH) full Sharpe. """ import sys sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt") import altlib as al import numpy as np # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Signal factory # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- def make_target(sma_win_bars: int, vol_win_days: int): """Returns a function df -> target_array using SMA regime + vol_target.""" def target_fn(df): c = df["close"].values bpd = al.bars_per_day(df) # SMA computed causally (sma already uses rolling with min_periods=win) s200 = al.sma(c, sma_win_bars) # Direction: +1 when close > SMA, else 0 (long-flat) direction = np.where(c > s200, 1.0, 0.0) # Vol-targeted position vol_win = int(round(vol_win_days * bpd)) pos = al.vol_target(direction, df, target_vol=0.20, vol_win_days=vol_win_days, leverage_cap=2.0) # Mask NaN (during SMA warmup) -> flat pos = np.where(np.isnan(s200), 0.0, pos) return pos return target_fn # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Grid: 2 configs × 2 TFs (1d, 12h) # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONFIGS = [ {"label": "SMA150_v20", "sma_days": 150, "vol_win": 20}, {"label": "SMA200_v30", "sma_days": 200, "vol_win": 30}, ] TFS = ("1d", "12h") reports = [] for cfg in CONFIGS: sma_days = cfg["sma_days"] vol_win = cfg["vol_win"] def make_fn(sd=sma_days, vw=vol_win): def target_fn(df): bpd = al.bars_per_day(df) sma_bars = int(round(sd * bpd)) c = df["close"].values s = al.sma(c, sma_bars) direction = np.where(c > s, 1.0, 0.0) pos = al.vol_target(direction, df, target_vol=0.20, vol_win_days=vw, leverage_cap=2.0) pos = np.where(np.isnan(s), 0.0, pos) return pos return target_fn name = f"TRD13_{cfg['label']}" rep = al.study_weights(name, make_fn(), tfs=TFS) reports.append((rep, cfg)) # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Pick best config by min(BTC_full_sharpe, ETH_full_sharpe) on best TF # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- def best_score(rep): v = rep["verdict"] best_tf = v["best_tf"] # find the cell for best_tf for cell in rep["cells"]: if cell["tf"] == best_tf: btc_sh = cell["per_asset"]["BTC"]["full"]["sharpe"] eth_sh = cell["per_asset"]["ETH"]["full"]["sharpe"] return min(btc_sh, eth_sh) return -999.0 best_rep, best_cfg = max(reports, key=lambda x: best_score(x[0])) print("\n" + "=" * 70) print(f"BEST CONFIG: {best_cfg}") print("=" * 70) print(al.fmt(best_rep)) print("JSON:", al.as_json(best_rep))