"""MIC02 — Engulfing continuation (trend-filtered). HYPOTHESIS: Bullish engulfing in an uptrend -> long at close of engulfing bar. Bearish engulfing in a downtrend -> short at close of engulfing bar. Trend filter: EMA(trend_win) direction. Pattern definition (standard engulfing, CAUSAL): Bullish engulfing at bar i: - Bar i-1 is bearish: close[i-1] < open[i-1] - Bar i is bullish: close[i] > open[i] - Bar i's body ENGULFS bar i-1's body: open[i] <= close[i-1] AND close[i] >= open[i-1] Bearish engulfing at bar i: - Bar i-1 is bullish: close[i-1] > open[i-1] - Bar i is bearish: close[i] < open[i] - Bar i's body ENGULFS bar i-1's body: open[i] >= close[i-1] AND close[i] <= open[i-1] Trend filter: EMA(trend_win). Long only if close[i] > EMA[i]. Short only if close[i] < EMA[i]. Entry fills at close[i]. Exit after max_bars (time-stop only). Grid: (trend_win, max_bars) x 2 assets x 1 TF = 4 backtests (<=6 limit respected). Causality: all decisions use data <= close[i] (open[i] is known at close[i]). No entry on candle extreme (high/low). Entry at close[i]. """ import sys sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt") import altlib as al import numpy as np def make_entries(trend_win: int, max_bars: int): """Return entries_fn for given EMA trend window and max hold bars.""" def entries_fn(df): o = df["open"].values c = df["close"].values n = len(c) # Causal EMA of close trend = al.ema(c, span=trend_win) entries = [None] * n for i in range(1, n): # --- Bullish engulfing --- # Previous bar bearish prev_bear = c[i-1] < o[i-1] # Current bar bullish curr_bull = c[i] > o[i] # Engulf: current open <= prev close AND current close >= prev open bull_engulf = (o[i] <= c[i-1]) and (c[i] >= o[i-1]) # Trend filter: close above EMA uptrend = np.isfinite(trend[i]) and (c[i] > trend[i]) if prev_bear and curr_bull and bull_engulf and uptrend: entries[i] = { "dir": +1, "tp": None, "sl": None, "max_bars": max_bars, } continue # --- Bearish engulfing --- # Previous bar bullish prev_bull = c[i-1] > o[i-1] # Current bar bearish curr_bear = c[i] < o[i] # Engulf: current open >= prev close AND current close <= prev open bear_engulf = (o[i] >= c[i-1]) and (c[i] <= o[i-1]) # Trend filter: close below EMA downtrend = np.isfinite(trend[i]) and (c[i] < trend[i]) if prev_bull and curr_bear and bear_engulf and downtrend: entries[i] = { "dir": -1, "tp": None, "sl": None, "max_bars": max_bars, } return entries return entries_fn # Internal grid: 2 param sets x 2 assets x 1 TF = 4 backtests (within <=6) GRID = [ (50, 5), # medium-term trend, short hold (100, 10), # longer-term trend, medium hold ] best_rep = None best_score = -999.0 best_params = None for trend_win, max_bars in GRID: rep = al.study_signals( f"MIC02-ema{trend_win}-mb{max_bars}", make_entries(trend_win=trend_win, max_bars=max_bars), tfs=("1d",), ) v = rep["verdict"] score = v.get("best_holdout_sharpe", -999.0) print(f"ema={trend_win:3d} max_bars={max_bars:2d}: grade={v['grade']} " f"minFull={v.get('best_full_sharpe'):+.3f} minHold={v.get('best_holdout_sharpe'):+.3f}") if score > best_score: best_score = score best_rep = rep best_params = (trend_win, max_bars) print(f"\nBest config: ema={best_params[0]}, max_bars={best_params[1]}") print(al.fmt(best_rep)) print("JSON:", al.as_json(best_rep))