"""CMB01 — Trend + RSI pullback (buy-the-dip-in-uptrend). HYPOTHESIS: When close > SMA(200) (uptrend), wait for RSI(14) to dip below a threshold (entry_rsi), then buy at close. Exit when RSI recovers above exit_rsi OR after max_bars candles. This is a DISCRETE signal strategy -> al.study_signals on 1d only. Small grid (<=4 param sets, total backtests = 4 x 2 assets = 8 runs): A: entry_rsi=35, exit_rsi=55, max_bars=20 (spec default) B: entry_rsi=30, exit_rsi=55, max_bars=20 (tighter oversold) C: entry_rsi=35, exit_rsi=60, max_bars=30 (higher exit target) D: entry_rsi=40, exit_rsi=60, max_bars=20 (looser entry) Best config selected by min_asset_holdout_sharpe from the cells. """ import sys sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt") import altlib as al import numpy as np # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Signal generator # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def make_entries(df, entry_rsi=35, exit_rsi=55, max_bars=20, sma_win=200): """Causal: all decisions use data <= close[i]. Entry at close[i] when: - close[i] > SMA200[i] (uptrend filter) - rsi[i] < entry_rsi (oversold dip) - not already in a trade (handled by the harness — we just emit the signal) Exit (embedded in entry dict): - tp=None (no fixed TP; rely on RSI exit or max_bars) - sl=None (no hard SL — keep it simple per hypothesis) - max_bars=max_bars RSI exit: we embed RSI exit logic by checking RSI at each bar in max_bars. BUT the harness handles TP/SL/max_bars only — it does NOT support a custom exit indicator. So we approximate: find how many bars until RSI > exit_rsi from entry, and set max_bars to that capped at max_bars. This is causal because we compute the expected exit from history (look-ahead per trade), BUT we cannot do this without look-ahead within the signal generator itself. HONEST APPROACH: Use max_bars only as exit. The harness will hold for up to max_bars. This is conservative — RSI often recovers faster, meaning we'd hold longer than needed, which is fine (no look-ahead). Alternatively we can encode a trailing exit by scanning forward, but that introduces look-ahead. CORRECT NO-LOOK-AHEAD APPROACH: Compute signal at bar i. Set max_bars = max_bars. The exit is "held max_bars or until harness closes." Since the harness only supports TP/SL/max_bars, we use max_bars. This is honest. No TP, no SL, exit by time (max_bars) — straightforward. """ c = df["close"].values.astype(float) n = len(c) sma200 = al.sma(c, sma_win) rsi14 = al.rsi(c, 14) entries = [None] * n for i in range(sma_win, n): # Entry conditions (all using data <= close[i]) in_uptrend = c[i] > sma200[i] and np.isfinite(sma200[i]) oversold = np.isfinite(rsi14[i]) and rsi14[i] < entry_rsi if in_uptrend and oversold: entries[i] = { "dir": +1, "tp": None, "sl": None, "max_bars": max_bars, } return entries # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Grid search # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONFIGS = [ dict(entry_rsi=35, exit_rsi=55, max_bars=20, label="entry35_exit55_mb20"), dict(entry_rsi=30, exit_rsi=55, max_bars=20, label="entry30_exit55_mb20"), dict(entry_rsi=35, exit_rsi=60, max_bars=30, label="entry35_exit60_mb30"), dict(entry_rsi=40, exit_rsi=60, max_bars=20, label="entry40_exit60_mb20"), ] print("=== CMB01: Trend + RSI pullback ===") print(f"Grid: {len(CONFIGS)} configs x 2 assets = {len(CONFIGS)*2} backtests\n") results = [] for cfg in CONFIGS: label = cfg["label"] entry_rsi = cfg["entry_rsi"] exit_rsi = cfg["exit_rsi"] max_bars = cfg["max_bars"] def entries_fn(df, _er=entry_rsi, _xr=exit_rsi, _mb=max_bars): return make_entries(df, entry_rsi=_er, exit_rsi=_xr, max_bars=_mb) rep = al.study_signals( f"CMB01-{label}", entries_fn, tfs=("1d",), ) print(al.fmt(rep)) print(f" JSON: {al.as_json(rep)}\n") results.append((rep, cfg)) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Pick best config by min_asset_holdout_sharpe # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def best_holdout(rep): cells = rep[0].get("cells", []) if not cells: return -99.0 return max(c.get("min_asset_holdout_sharpe", -99.0) for c in cells) results.sort(key=best_holdout, reverse=True) best_rep, best_cfg = results[0] print("\n" + "="*60) print(f"BEST CONFIG: {best_cfg['label']}") print(al.fmt(best_rep)) print("JSON:", al.as_json(best_rep))