"""RSK05 — Chandelier-Exit Trend Strategy. Idea: Go long when price crosses above an EMA (or breaks out). Exit via a chandelier ATR stop (trailing stop set as highest-high minus N*ATR). When stopped out, go flat (no shorting). Optionally apply vol-targeting for position sizing. The chandelier stop is updated each bar using the rolling highest-high minus atr_mult * ATR. Entry: EMA(fast) crosses above EMA(slow) (or close > EMA). Exit (flat): close drops below chandelier stop. Grid (<=4 param sets, total backtests = 4 configs x 2 TFs x 2 assets = 16, but we pick best config from 2 TFs x 2 assets = manageable): Config A: fast=20, slow=50, atr_win=22, atr_mult=3.0 (classic chandelier) Config B: fast=10, slow=30, atr_win=14, atr_mult=2.5 Config C: fast=50, slow=200, atr_win=22, atr_mult=3.0 (long-trend) Config D: fast=20, slow=50, atr_win=14, atr_mult=2.0 (tighter stop) """ import sys sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt") import altlib as al import numpy as np def chandelier_trend(df, fast=20, slow=50, atr_win=22, atr_mult=3.0, vol_tgt=True): """ Continuous-position chandelier trend following strategy. - Long signal: EMA(fast) > EMA(slow) (trend is up) - Chandelier stop: rolling(high, atr_win).max() - atr_mult * ATR(atr_win) - Position: +1 if in trend AND close > chandelier_stop, else 0 - Vol-target: scale position to target 20% annualized vol, cap 2x All causal: everything uses data up to and including close[i]. """ c = df["close"].values.astype(float) h = df["high"].values.astype(float) n = len(c) # EMA crossover ema_fast = al.ema(c, fast) ema_slow = al.ema(c, slow) trend_up = (ema_fast > ema_slow).astype(float) # 1 = bullish regime # ATR (causal EWM) atr_vals = al.atr(df, win=atr_win) # Chandelier stop: highest HIGH over atr_win bars (causal rolling, no shift needed # because we compare close[i] which was not used to compute max(high[i-atr_win:i])) # Actually high[i] is part of bar i. We need max of highs up to bar i (inclusive). # The close[i] is what we use for decision; chandelier is based on high (not close). # Using max including bar i's high is causal since close[i] comes after open/high/low # of bar i (and the bar has already completed when we decide at close[i]). highest_high = ( df["high"] .rolling(atr_win, min_periods=max(2, atr_win // 2)) .max() .values ) chandelier_stop = highest_high - atr_mult * atr_vals # Position: long only if in trend AND close above chandelier stop raw_pos = np.where((trend_up > 0) & (c > chandelier_stop), 1.0, 0.0) # Fill NaN periods (warm-up) with 0 raw_pos = np.nan_to_num(raw_pos, nan=0.0) if vol_tgt: return al.vol_target(raw_pos, df, target_vol=0.20, vol_win_days=30, leverage_cap=2.0) else: return raw_pos # Grid: 4 configs CONFIGS = [ dict(fast=20, slow=50, atr_win=22, atr_mult=3.0, label="A:f20s50a22m3.0"), dict(fast=10, slow=30, atr_win=14, atr_mult=2.5, label="B:f10s30a14m2.5"), dict(fast=50, slow=200, atr_win=22, atr_mult=3.0, label="C:f50s200a22m3.0"), dict(fast=20, slow=50, atr_win=14, atr_mult=2.0, label="D:f20s50a14m2.0"), ] # Run each config on 1d and 12h (2 TFs), pick best by min_asset_holdout_sharpe best_rep = None best_hold = -999.0 best_label = "" for cfg in CONFIGS: label = cfg["label"] fast = cfg["fast"] slow = cfg["slow"] atr_win = cfg["atr_win"] atr_mult = cfg["atr_mult"] def make_target(fast=fast, slow=slow, atr_win=atr_win, atr_mult=atr_mult): def target_fn(df): return chandelier_trend(df, fast=fast, slow=slow, atr_win=atr_win, atr_mult=atr_mult, vol_tgt=True) return target_fn rep = al.study_weights( f"RSK05-{label}", make_target(), tfs=("1d", "12h"), ) v = rep["verdict"] hold_sh = v.get("best_holdout_sharpe", -999.0) print(f"Config {label}: grade={v['grade']} best_tf={v['best_tf']} " f"full={v.get('best_full_sharpe')} hold={hold_sh}") if hold_sh > best_hold: best_hold = hold_sh best_rep = rep best_label = label print(f"\nBest config: {best_label} (hold={best_hold:.3f})") print() print(al.fmt(best_rep)) print("JSON:", al.as_json(best_rep))