"""skyhooklib — SHARED HONEST EVAL for the Skyhook (SKH01) multi-agent improvement wave. Every agent imports THIS so results are comparable and leak-free: * data builders: certified 5m BTC/ETH -> 230m (exec) + 690m (signal), cached. * study(): FULL + HOLD-OUT (2025-01-01+) + fee sweep + per-year, on BOTH assets, via the project's honest intrabar engine (backtest_signals: TP/SL/max_bars, non-overlap). * causality(): truncated-prefix guard (a Skyhook entry on a prefix must match the full run). * marginal(): does Skyhook ADD to the existing TP01 portfolio? (altlib.marginal_vs_tp01). * verdict(): conservative PASS/WEAK/FAIL on min-asset FULL & HOLD-OUT + fee survival. Quick start (inside an agent script): import sys; sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/skyhook") import skyhooklib as sk from src.strategies.skyhook import SkyhookParams rep = sk.study("MY-VARIANT", SkyhookParams(ptn_n=20, sl_atr=2.5)) print(sk.fmt(rep)); print(sk.as_json(rep)) """ from __future__ import annotations import json import sys from functools import lru_cache from pathlib import Path import numpy as np import pandas as pd _ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3] if str(_ROOT) not in sys.path: sys.path.insert(0, str(_ROOT)) sys.path.insert(0, str(_ROOT / "scripts" / "research" / "alt")) from src.backtest.harness import backtest_signals # noqa: E402 from src.data.downloader import load_data # noqa: E402 from src.strategies.skyhook import ( # noqa: E402 SkyhookParams, build_frames, skyhook_entries, signal_counts) HOLDOUT = pd.Timestamp("2025-01-01", tz="UTC") FEE_RT = 0.001 # 0.10% round-trip (Deribit taker) FEE_SWEEP = (0.0, 0.001, 0.002, 0.003) # round-trip fee grid CERTIFIED = ("BTC", "ETH") @lru_cache(maxsize=4) def _frames(asset: str): return build_frames(load_data(asset, "5m")) def frames(asset: str): """(ltf 230m, htf 690m) certificati e cached.""" return _frames(asset.upper()) def _split_metrics(eq: np.ndarray, idx: pd.DatetimeIndex, mask: np.ndarray) -> dict: e = eq[mask] if len(e) < 5: return dict(sharpe=0.0, ret=0.0, maxdd=0.0, n=int(len(e))) r = np.diff(e) / e[:-1] r = r[np.isfinite(r)] ix = idx[mask] dt = pd.Series(ix).diff().dt.total_seconds().median() or 86400 bpy = 86400 * 365.25 / dt sharpe = float(np.mean(r) / np.std(r) * np.sqrt(bpy)) if len(r) and np.std(r) > 0 else 0.0 pk = np.maximum.accumulate(e) dd = float(np.max((pk - e) / pk)) return dict(sharpe=round(sharpe, 3), ret=round(float(e[-1] / e[0] - 1), 4), maxdd=round(dd, 4), n=int(len(e))) def run_asset(asset: str, p: SkyhookParams, fee_rt: float = FEE_RT) -> dict: """Backtest Skyhook su un asset (230m exec). Ritorna FULL+HOLDOUT+per-anno+diagnostica.""" ltf, htf = frames(asset) entries = skyhook_entries(ltf, htf, p) m = backtest_signals(ltf, entries, fee_rt=fee_rt, leverage=1.0, asset=asset, tf="230m") eq = m.equity idx = pd.DatetimeIndex(pd.to_datetime(m.eq_index, utc=True)) hmask = np.asarray(idx >= HOLDOUT) full = dict(sharpe=round(m.sharpe, 3), cagr=round(m.cagr, 4), maxdd=round(m.max_dd, 4), ret=round(m.net_return, 4), n_trades=int(m.n_trades), win_rate=round(m.win_rate, 1)) hold = _split_metrics(eq, idx, hmask) counts = signal_counts(ltf, htf, p) return dict(asset=asset, full=full, holdout=hold, yearly={int(y): round(v, 4) for y, v in m.yearly.items()}, counts=counts, _eq=eq, _idx=idx) def daily_returns(asset: str, p: SkyhookParams, fee_rt: float = FEE_RT) -> pd.Series: """Rendimenti GIORNALIERI dell'equity Skyhook (per il lens marginal-vs-TP01). NB approssimazione: l'equity di backtest_signals e' marcata a fine-trade (a gradini), quindi i daily sono grezzi -> usalo SOLO per corr/uplift, non come headline Sharpe.""" r = run_asset(asset, p, fee_rt) s = pd.Series(r["_eq"], index=r["_idx"]) return (s.resample("1D").last().ffill().pct_change().dropna()) def skyhook_daily_5050(p: SkyhookParams, fee_rt: float = FEE_RT) -> pd.Series: """Serie giornaliera 50/50 BTC+ETH (stessa convenzione di altlib.tp01_baseline_daily).""" series = {a: daily_returns(a, p, fee_rt) for a in CERTIFIED} J = pd.concat(series, axis=1, join="inner").fillna(0.0) return 0.5 * J[CERTIFIED[0]] + 0.5 * J[CERTIFIED[1]] def marginal(p: SkyhookParams, fee_rt: float = FEE_RT) -> dict: """Skyhook MIGLIORA il portafoglio TP01 esistente? (altlib.marginal_vs_tp01).""" import altlib as al return al.marginal_vs_tp01(skyhook_daily_5050(p, fee_rt)) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Causality guard (truncated-prefix): un ingresso emesso su un prefisso deve coincidere # con lo stesso indice della run completa (nessuna feature guarda il futuro). # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def causality(p: SkyhookParams, asset: str = "BTC", tail: int = 200) -> dict: ltf, htf = frames(asset) full = skyhook_entries(ltf, htf, p) n = len(ltf) bad = 0; checked = 0 for frac in (0.80, 0.92): cut = int(n * frac) # taglia anche l'HTF alla stessa data di chiusura del prefisso LTF cut_ts = int(ltf["timestamp"].iloc[cut - 1]) htf_cut = htf[htf["timestamp"] <= cut_ts].reset_index(drop=True) sub = skyhook_entries(ltf.iloc[:cut].reset_index(drop=True), htf_cut, p) for i in range(max(0, cut - tail), cut): checked += 1 a, b = full[i], sub[i] if (a is None) != (b is None): bad += 1 elif a is not None and (a["dir"] != b["dir"] or abs(a["sl"] - b["sl"]) > 1e-6 or abs(a["tp"] - b["tp"]) > 1e-6): bad += 1 return dict(ok=bool(bad == 0), mismatches=int(bad), checked=int(checked)) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Verdict + drivers # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def _verdict(per_asset: dict, fee_survives: bool) -> dict: min_full = min(per_asset[a]["full"]["sharpe"] for a in per_asset) min_hold = min(per_asset[a]["holdout"]["sharpe"] for a in per_asset) min_trades = min(per_asset[a]["full"]["n_trades"] for a in per_asset) enough = min_trades >= 20 pass_ = enough and min_full >= 0.5 and min_hold >= 0.2 and fee_survives weak = enough and min_full >= 0.3 and min_hold >= 0.0 grade = "PASS" if pass_ else ("WEAK" if weak else "FAIL") return dict(grade=grade, min_asset_full_sharpe=round(min_full, 3), min_asset_holdout_sharpe=round(min_hold, 3), min_trades=int(min_trades), fee_survives=bool(fee_survives)) def study(name: str, p: SkyhookParams | None = None, assets=CERTIFIED, fee_sweep=FEE_SWEEP) -> dict: """Run completo: FULL+HOLDOUT+fee-sweep+per-anno su BTCÐ + verdict conservativo.""" p = p or SkyhookParams() per_asset = {} fee_ok_all = True for a in assets: r = run_asset(a, p, FEE_RT) sweep = {} for f in fee_sweep: rf = run_asset(a, p, f) sweep[f"{f*100:.2f}%RT"] = rf["full"]["sharpe"] fee_ok = sweep.get("0.30%RT", -9) > 0 fee_ok_all = fee_ok_all and fee_ok per_asset[a] = dict(full=r["full"], holdout=r["holdout"], yearly=r["yearly"], counts=r["counts"], fee_sweep=sweep) return dict(name=name, params=_params_dict(p), per_asset=per_asset, verdict=_verdict(per_asset, fee_ok_all)) def _params_dict(p: SkyhookParams) -> dict: return {k: getattr(p, k) for k in p.__dataclass_fields__} # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Output # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def _clean(o): if isinstance(o, dict): return {k: _clean(v) for k, v in o.items() if not k.startswith("_")} if isinstance(o, (list, tuple)): return [_clean(x) for x in o] if isinstance(o, (np.floating,)): return round(float(o), 4) if isinstance(o, (np.integer,)): return int(o) if isinstance(o, (np.bool_,)): return bool(o) return o def as_json(rep: dict) -> str: return json.dumps(_clean(rep), default=str) def fmt(rep: dict) -> str: v = rep["verdict"] lines = [f"=== {rep['name']} -> {v['grade']} " f"(minFull={v['min_asset_full_sharpe']:+.2f} minHold={v['min_asset_holdout_sharpe']:+.2f} " f"minTrades={v['min_trades']} feeOK={v['fee_survives']})"] for a, pa in rep["per_asset"].items(): f, h, c = pa["full"], pa["holdout"], pa["counts"] yr = " ".join(f"{y}:{r*100:+.0f}%" for y, r in pa["yearly"].items()) lines.append(f" {a}: FULL Sh={f['sharpe']:+.2f} ret={f['ret']*100:+.0f}% DD={f['maxdd']*100:.0f}% " f"n={f['n_trades']} wr={f['win_rate']:.0f}% HOLD Sh={h['sharpe']:+.2f} ret={h['ret']*100:+.0f}% " f"| entries={c['entries']} (L{c['comp_long']}/S{c['comp_short']})") lines.append(f" fee sweep: " + " ".join(f"{k}={val:+.2f}" for k, val in pa["fee_sweep"].items())) lines.append(f" per-anno: {yr}") return "\n".join(lines) if __name__ == "__main__": print("--- SMOKE skyhooklib: baseline SkyhookParams() ---") rep = study("SKH01-BASELINE", SkyhookParams()) print(fmt(rep)) print("\ncausality:", causality(SkyhookParams()))