"""Strategia 7: LSTM su features frattali multi-timeframe. Usa sequenze di features frattali come input a un LSTM per predire la direzione del prezzo. """ from __future__ import annotations import sys sys.path.insert(0, ".") import numpy as np import pandas as pd import torch import torch.nn as nn from torch.utils.data import DataLoader, TensorDataset from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler from src.data.downloader import load_data from src.fractal.indicators import hurst_exponent, fractal_dimension_higuchi, volatility_ratio from src.fractal.patterns import encode_candles, extract_body_ratios, extract_shadow_ratios DEVICE = torch.device("cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu") print(f"Device: {DEVICE}") class FractalLSTM(nn.Module): def __init__(self, input_size: int, hidden_size: int = 64, num_layers: int = 2, dropout: float = 0.3): super().__init__() self.lstm = nn.LSTM(input_size, hidden_size, num_layers, batch_first=True, dropout=dropout) self.classifier = nn.Sequential( nn.Linear(hidden_size, 32), nn.ReLU(), nn.Dropout(dropout), nn.Linear(32, 1), ) def forward(self, x: torch.Tensor) -> torch.Tensor: _, (h_n, _) = self.lstm(x) out = self.classifier(h_n[-1]) return out.squeeze(-1) def extract_candle_features(df: pd.DataFrame, i: int) -> np.ndarray: """Extract per-candle features at index i.""" o, h, l, c = df["open"].values[i], df["high"].values[i], df["low"].values[i], df["close"].values[i] v = df["volume"].values[i] total = h - l if h - l > 0 else 1e-10 body = abs(c - o) / total upper_s = (h - max(o, c)) / total lower_s = (min(o, c) - l) / total direction = 1 if c > o else (-1 if c < o else 0) # Log return from previous candle if i > 0: prev_c = df["close"].values[i - 1] log_ret = np.log(c / prev_c) if prev_c > 0 else 0 else: log_ret = 0 return np.array([body, upper_s, lower_s, direction, log_ret, v]) def build_dataset(df: pd.DataFrame, seq_len: int = 48, lookahead: int = 6, min_ret: float = 0.003): """Build sequences of candle features with labels.""" close = df["close"].values n = len(df) vol_mean = pd.Series(df["volume"].values).rolling(100, min_periods=1).mean().values sequences = [] labels = [] indices = [] # Pre-compute additional features candle_types = encode_candles(df) body_ratios = extract_body_ratios(df) shadow_ratios = extract_shadow_ratios(df) for i in range(seq_len, n - lookahead, 2): seq = [] for j in range(i - seq_len, i): feats = extract_candle_features(df, j) # Normalize volume by rolling mean feats[5] = feats[5] / vol_mean[j] if vol_mean[j] > 0 else 1.0 seq.append(feats) future_ret = (close[i + lookahead - 1] - close[i - 1]) / close[i - 1] if abs(future_ret) < min_ret: continue sequences.append(seq) labels.append(1 if future_ret > 0 else 0) indices.append(i) return np.array(sequences), np.array(labels), np.array(indices) print("=" * 60) print(" STRATEGIA 7: LSTM FRACTAL — BTC 1H") print("=" * 60) df = load_data("BTC", "1h") close = df["close"].values SEQ_LEN = 48 LOOKAHEAD = 6 EPOCHS = 30 BATCH_SIZE = 256 LR = 0.001 print(f"\nSeq length: {SEQ_LEN}, Lookahead: {LOOKAHEAD}") print("Building dataset...") X, y, idx_arr = build_dataset(df, seq_len=SEQ_LEN, lookahead=LOOKAHEAD) print(f"Samples: {len(X)}, Features per candle: {X.shape[2]}, Up ratio: {np.mean(y)*100:.1f}%") # Chronological split split = int(len(X) * 0.7) val_split = int(len(X) * 0.85) X_train, X_val, X_test = X[:split], X[split:val_split], X[val_split:] y_train, y_val, y_test = y[:split], y[split:val_split], y[val_split:] idx_test_arr = idx_arr[val_split:] # Normalize features per-feature across time n_features = X.shape[2] for f in range(n_features): scaler = StandardScaler() X_train[:, :, f] = scaler.fit_transform(X_train[:, :, f]) X_val[:, :, f] = scaler.transform(X_val[:, :, f]) X_test[:, :, f] = scaler.transform(X_test[:, :, f]) # To tensors X_train_t = torch.FloatTensor(X_train).to(DEVICE) y_train_t = torch.FloatTensor(y_train).to(DEVICE) X_val_t = torch.FloatTensor(X_val).to(DEVICE) y_val_t = torch.FloatTensor(y_val).to(DEVICE) X_test_t = torch.FloatTensor(X_test).to(DEVICE) train_ds = TensorDataset(X_train_t, y_train_t) train_dl = DataLoader(train_ds, batch_size=BATCH_SIZE, shuffle=True) # Model model = FractalLSTM(input_size=n_features, hidden_size=64, num_layers=2, dropout=0.3).to(DEVICE) optimizer = torch.optim.Adam(model.parameters(), lr=LR, weight_decay=1e-5) criterion = nn.BCEWithLogitsLoss() scheduler = torch.optim.lr_scheduler.ReduceLROnPlateau(optimizer, patience=5, factor=0.5) print(f"\nTraining on {DEVICE}...") best_val_acc = 0 patience_counter = 0 for epoch in range(EPOCHS): model.train() total_loss = 0 for xb, yb in train_dl: optimizer.zero_grad() pred = model(xb) loss = criterion(pred, yb) loss.backward() torch.nn.utils.clip_grad_norm_(model.parameters(), 1.0) optimizer.step() total_loss += loss.item() # Validation model.eval() with torch.no_grad(): val_pred = model(X_val_t) val_loss = criterion(val_pred, y_val_t).item() val_proba = torch.sigmoid(val_pred).cpu().numpy() val_acc = np.mean((val_proba > 0.5) == y_val) scheduler.step(val_loss) if val_acc > best_val_acc: best_val_acc = val_acc torch.save(model.state_dict(), "data/processed/best_lstm.pt") patience_counter = 0 else: patience_counter += 1 if epoch % 5 == 0 or patience_counter > 8: print(f" Epoch {epoch:2d}: train_loss={total_loss/len(train_dl):.4f} val_loss={val_loss:.4f} val_acc={val_acc*100:.1f}% best={best_val_acc*100:.1f}%") if patience_counter > 10: print(f" Early stopping at epoch {epoch}") break # Load best model and test model.load_state_dict(torch.load("data/processed/best_lstm.pt", weights_only=True)) model.eval() with torch.no_grad(): test_pred = model(X_test_t) test_proba = torch.sigmoid(test_pred).cpu().numpy() test_acc = np.mean((test_proba > 0.5) == y_test) print(f"\nTest accuracy (base): {test_acc*100:.1f}%") # Threshold sweep print("\n--- THRESHOLD SWEEP ---") for thr in [0.50, 0.55, 0.60, 0.65, 0.70, 0.75, 0.80]: accs = [] capital = 1000 n_trades = 0 for j in range(len(X_test)): p = test_proba[j] i = idx_test_arr[j] actual = (close[i + LOOKAHEAD - 1] - close[i - 1]) / close[i - 1] if p >= thr: accs.append(1 if actual > 0 else 0) ret = actual - 0.002 capital *= (1 + ret * 0.3) n_trades += 1 elif p <= (1 - thr): accs.append(1 if actual < 0 else 0) ret = -actual - 0.002 capital *= (1 + ret * 0.3) n_trades += 1 if not accs: print(f" thr={thr:.2f}: no signals") continue acc = np.mean(accs) * 100 total_ret = (capital - 1000) / 1000 * 100 # Annualized test_days = (idx_test_arr[-1] - idx_test_arr[0]) / 24 years = test_days / 365.25 if test_days > 0 else 1 ann_ret = ((capital / 1000) ** (1 / years) - 1) * 100 if years > 0 and capital > 0 else -100 trades_yr = n_trades / years if years > 0 else 0 print(f" thr={thr:.2f}: trades={n_trades:5d} acc={acc:.1f}% ret={total_ret:+.1f}% ann={ann_ret:+.1f}% trades/yr={trades_yr:.0f}") # Also try ETH print("\n\n" + "=" * 60) print(" LSTM SU ETH 1H (same model architecture)") print("=" * 60) df_eth = load_data("ETH", "1h") close_eth = df_eth["close"].values X_eth, y_eth, idx_eth = build_dataset(df_eth, seq_len=SEQ_LEN, lookahead=LOOKAHEAD) print(f"ETH samples: {len(X_eth)}, Up ratio: {np.mean(y_eth)*100:.1f}%") split_e = int(len(X_eth) * 0.7) val_e = int(len(X_eth) * 0.85) X_train_e, X_val_e, X_test_e = X_eth[:split_e], X_eth[split_e:val_e], X_eth[val_e:] y_train_e, y_val_e, y_test_e = y_eth[:split_e], y_eth[split_e:val_e], y_eth[val_e:] idx_test_e = idx_eth[val_e:] for f in range(n_features): sc = StandardScaler() X_train_e[:, :, f] = sc.fit_transform(X_train_e[:, :, f]) X_val_e[:, :, f] = sc.transform(X_val_e[:, :, f]) X_test_e[:, :, f] = sc.transform(X_test_e[:, :, f]) X_tr_e = torch.FloatTensor(X_train_e).to(DEVICE) y_tr_e = torch.FloatTensor(y_train_e).to(DEVICE) X_va_e = torch.FloatTensor(X_val_e).to(DEVICE) y_va_e = torch.FloatTensor(y_val_e).to(DEVICE) X_te_e = torch.FloatTensor(X_test_e).to(DEVICE) model_eth = FractalLSTM(input_size=n_features, hidden_size=64, num_layers=2, dropout=0.3).to(DEVICE) opt_e = torch.optim.Adam(model_eth.parameters(), lr=LR, weight_decay=1e-5) ds_e = TensorDataset(X_tr_e, y_tr_e) dl_e = DataLoader(ds_e, batch_size=BATCH_SIZE, shuffle=True) sch_e = torch.optim.lr_scheduler.ReduceLROnPlateau(opt_e, patience=5, factor=0.5) best_e = 0 pc = 0 for epoch in range(EPOCHS): model_eth.train() tl = 0 for xb, yb in dl_e: opt_e.zero_grad() p = model_eth(xb) loss = criterion(p, yb) loss.backward() torch.nn.utils.clip_grad_norm_(model_eth.parameters(), 1.0) opt_e.step() tl += loss.item() model_eth.eval() with torch.no_grad(): vp = model_eth(X_va_e) vl = criterion(vp, y_va_e).item() va = np.mean((torch.sigmoid(vp).cpu().numpy() > 0.5) == y_val_e) sch_e.step(vl) if va > best_e: best_e = va torch.save(model_eth.state_dict(), "data/processed/best_lstm_eth.pt") pc = 0 else: pc += 1 if epoch % 5 == 0: print(f" Epoch {epoch:2d}: val_acc={va*100:.1f}% best={best_e*100:.1f}%") if pc > 10: break model_eth.load_state_dict(torch.load("data/processed/best_lstm_eth.pt", weights_only=True)) model_eth.eval() with torch.no_grad(): tp_e = torch.sigmoid(model_eth(X_te_e)).cpu().numpy() print(f"\nETH Test accuracy: {np.mean((tp_e > 0.5) == y_test_e)*100:.1f}%") for thr in [0.55, 0.60, 0.65, 0.70]: accs = [] capital = 1000 for j in range(len(X_test_e)): p = tp_e[j] i = idx_test_e[j] actual = (close_eth[i + LOOKAHEAD - 1] - close_eth[i - 1]) / close_eth[i - 1] if p >= thr: accs.append(1 if actual > 0 else 0) capital *= (1 + (actual - 0.002) * 0.3) elif p <= (1 - thr): accs.append(1 if actual < 0 else 0) capital *= (1 + (-actual - 0.002) * 0.3) if accs: print(f" thr={thr:.2f}: trades={len(accs):5d} acc={np.mean(accs)*100:.1f}% ret={(capital-1000)/10:+.1f}%")