"""RotationWorker (ROT02): dual-momentum top-k risk-gated, ribilancio giornaliero. Replica live di honest_improve2._rot_daily_equity (lookback 60, top_k 3, gross 0.45, SMA100 gate).""" from __future__ import annotations import json from datetime import datetime, timezone from pathlib import Path import numpy as np import pandas as pd FEE_RT = 0.001 def _panel(data: dict, universe: list): """Allinea {asset: df} sui timestamp comuni -> (df_panel, cols presenti).""" frames = {} for a in universe: df = data.get(a) if df is not None and len(df): frames[a] = df[["timestamp", "close"]].rename(columns={"close": a}) if not frames: return None, [] panel = None for a, f in frames.items(): panel = f if panel is None else panel.merge(f, on="timestamp", how="inner") panel = panel.sort_values("timestamp").reset_index(drop=True) cols = [a for a in universe if a in frames] return panel, cols class RotationWorker: def __init__(self, universe, lookback=60, top_k=3, gross=0.45, regime_n=100, tf="1d", capital=1000.0, fee_rt=FEE_RT, name="ROT02_rot", data_dir=Path("data/portfolio_paper")): self.universe = list(universe) self.lookback = lookback self.top_k = top_k self.gross = gross self.regime_n = regime_n self.tf = tf self.initial_capital = capital self.capital = capital self.fee_rt = fee_rt self.worker_id = f"{name}__{tf}" self.work_dir = Path(data_dir) / self.worker_id self.work_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) self.status_path = self.work_dir / "status.json" self.trades_path = self.work_dir / "trades.jsonl" self.weights = {a: 0.0 for a in self.universe} self.last_bar_ts = 0 self.in_position = False self._load() def _load(self): if self.status_path.exists(): s = json.loads(self.status_path.read_text()) self.capital = s.get("capital", self.capital) self.weights = {**{a: 0.0 for a in self.universe}, **s.get("weights", {})} self.last_bar_ts = s.get("last_bar_ts", 0) self.in_position = any(v > 0 for v in self.weights.values()) def _save(self): self.status_path.write_text(json.dumps({ "capital": round(self.capital, 2), "weights": self.weights, "last_bar_ts": self.last_bar_ts, "ts": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat()}, indent=2)) def tick(self, data: dict): panel, cols = _panel(data, self.universe) if panel is None or len(panel) < max(self.lookback + 1, self.regime_n + 1) or "BTC" not in cols: return P = panel[cols].values bar_ts = int(panel["timestamp"].iloc[-1]) # 1) realizza il rendimento dei pesi correnti sull'ultima barra chiusa if self.last_bar_ts and bar_ts > self.last_bar_ts: day_ret = P[-1] / P[-2] - 1.0 port_r = sum(self.weights.get(cols[k], 0.0) * day_ret[k] for k in range(len(cols))) self.capital = max(self.capital * (1.0 + float(port_r)), 10.0) # 2) ricalcola pesi target btc = P[:, cols.index("BTC")] bma = pd.Series(btc).rolling(self.regime_n).mean().values risk_on = btc[-1] > bma[-1] if not np.isnan(bma[-1]) else False mom = P[-1] / P[-1 - self.lookback] - 1.0 order = np.argsort(mom)[::-1] chosen = [k for k in order if mom[k] > 0][: self.top_k] if risk_on else [] nw = {a: 0.0 for a in self.universe} for k in chosen: nw[cols[k]] = self.gross / len(chosen) # 3) fee sul turnover turnover = sum(abs(nw[a] - self.weights.get(a, 0.0)) for a in self.universe) self.capital -= self.capital * turnover * (self.fee_rt / 2) if turnover > 0: self._log(nw, float(self.capital)) self.weights = nw self.last_bar_ts = bar_ts self.in_position = any(v > 0 for v in nw.values()) self._save() def _log(self, weights, cap): with open(self.trades_path, "a") as f: f.write(json.dumps({"ts": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(), "weights": {a: round(w, 4) for a, w in weights.items() if w > 0}, "capital": round(cap, 2)}) + "\n") @property def status_summary(self): held = {a: round(w, 3) for a, w in self.weights.items() if w > 0} return f"{self.worker_id}: cap={self.capital:.0f} held={held}"