"""Validazione dei worker live multi-asset (TR01/ROT02/TSM01): il replay bar-by-bar del worker riproduce la funzione di backtest di riferimento? Replay onesto: si alimenta il worker con finestre crescenti dei dati storici (stesso universo e stessa config della reference) e si confronta il rendimento finale con la funzione di riferimento. Non si pretende parità al centesimo (differenze attese da bar-timing e dalla convenzione capitale-singolo vs media-di-equity), ma il tracking deve essere stretto e dello stesso segno/ordine di grandezza. Riferimenti: TR01 -> honest_improve2._tr_basket_daily ROT02 -> honest_improve2._rot_daily_equity TSM01 -> tsmom_research.tsmom_sim Run: uv run python scripts/analysis/validate_honest_workers.py """ from __future__ import annotations import sys from pathlib import Path import numpy as np import pandas as pd PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2] sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT)) from scripts.analysis.explore_lab import get_df from scripts.analysis.honest_lab import available_assets from src.live.basket_trend_worker import BasketTrendWorker from src.live.rotation_worker import RotationWorker from src.live.tsmom_worker import TsmomWorker def _aligned_panel(assets, tf): """{asset: df get_df} -> DataFrame allineato sui timestamp comuni (timestamp + close per asset).""" frames = {} for a in assets: try: d = get_df(a, tf)[["timestamp", "close"]].rename(columns={"close": a}) frames[a] = d except Exception: pass panel = None for a, f in frames.items(): panel = f if panel is None else panel.merge(f, on="timestamp", how="inner") return panel.sort_values("timestamp").reset_index(drop=True), list(frames) def _asset_df(panel, a): """df OHLCV minimale (close = open = ...) per un asset dal panel allineato.""" c = panel[a].values return pd.DataFrame({"timestamp": panel["timestamp"].values, "open": c, "high": c, "low": c, "close": c, "volume": 1.0}) def replay(worker, panel, cols, start): """Replay bar-by-bar: a ogni step feed delle finestre crescenti. Ritorna ret% finale.""" n = len(panel) for i in range(start, n): sub = panel.iloc[: i + 1] data = {a: _asset_df(sub, a) for a in cols} worker.tick(data) return (worker.capital / worker.initial_capital - 1) * 100 def main(): import tempfile, shutil tmp = Path(tempfile.mkdtemp()) print("=" * 92) print(" VALIDAZIONE worker live multi-asset (replay vs backtest di riferimento)") print("=" * 92) try: # ---- ROT02 ---- from scripts.analysis.honest_improve2 import _rot_daily_equity idx = pd.date_range("2021-01-01", "2026-05-26", freq="1D", tz="UTC") ref_rot = (_rot_daily_equity(idx).iloc[-1] - 1) * 100 uni = available_assets() panel, cols = _aligned_panel(uni, "1d") wr = RotationWorker(universe=cols, top_k=3, gross=0.45, tf="1d", capital=1000.0, data_dir=tmp) rot = replay(wr, panel, cols, start=101) print(f" ROT02 worker={rot:+.0f}% reference={ref_rot:+.0f}% " f"univ={len(cols)} barre={len(panel)}") # ---- TSM01 ---- from scripts.analysis.tsmom_research import tsmom_sim ref_tsm = tsmom_sim()["ret"] wt = TsmomWorker(universe=cols, horizons=(63, 126, 252), thr=1.0, gross=0.30, tf="1d", capital=1000.0, data_dir=tmp) tsm = replay(wt, panel, cols, start=253) print(f" TSM01 worker={tsm:+.0f}% reference={ref_tsm:+.0f}%") # ---- TR01 ---- from scripts.analysis.honest_improve2 import _tr_basket_daily tr_assets = ["BNB", "BTC", "DOGE", "SOL", "XRP"] ref_tr = (_tr_basket_daily(tr_assets, idx).iloc[-1] - 1) * 100 panel4, cols4 = _aligned_panel(tr_assets, "4h") wb = BasketTrendWorker(universe=cols4, tf="4h", capital=1000.0, data_dir=tmp) tr = replay(wb, panel4, cols4, start=101) print(f" TR01 worker={tr:+.0f}% reference={ref_tr:+.0f}% " f"univ={len(cols4)} barre={len(panel4)}") print("\n NB: il worker tiene UN capitale unico (compounding del paniere), la reference") print(" media equity normalizzate per-asset -> differenza di convenzione attesa, non un bug.") print(" Validazione = stesso segno e ordine di grandezza, tracking ragionevole.") finally: shutil.rmtree(tmp, ignore_errors=True) if __name__ == "__main__": main()