"""agent_00_sma_trend — ANGLE: trend / single long SMA (long/flat). Idea (assigned angle): go LONG only while price is meaningfully above a single long simple moving average, otherwise FLAT. The long SMA defines the macro trend; staying flat below it is what cuts the asset's ~77% buy&hold drawdown to ~1/3. Tuned on split='train' only (both Series A and B, equal weight): * window W = 150 (canonical long SMA; sits on a wide robust plateau W=135..165) * band B = 0.02 (require close > 1.02*SMA -> avoids whipsaw chop near the line) * vol-target the long exposure to 35% ann vol (vol_win=30d, cap 1.0). This is what actually controls drawdown: long size shrinks when realized vol spikes (every crypto-like crash is a vol spike), so we're never full-size into the worst bars. Everything is causal: SMA(close[..i]), realized vol(returns[..i]). No future rows. The evaluator shifts position by one bar (decision at close[i] -> held bar i+1). Train (combined A&B): pnl_mean ~ 5.4, maxdd_worst ~ 0.30, sharpe_min ~ 1.36. Honest note: this is a DEFENSIVE trend filter, not alpha — its value is converting a high-PnL/high-DD uptrend into comparable risk-adjusted PnL at a MUCH smaller drawdown. """ import numpy as np import blindlib as bl W = 150 # single long SMA window BAND = 0.02 # long only when close > (1+BAND)*SMA(W) TARGET_VOL = 0.35 VOL_WIN_DAYS = 30 LEV_CAP = 1.0 def signal(df): c = df["close"].values.astype(float) sma = bl.sma(c, W) # causal SMA up to i # long/flat gate vs the single long SMA, with a band to dodge whipsaw near the line long_gate = np.where(c > sma * (1.0 + BAND), 1.0, 0.0) long_gate[:W] = 0.0 # no signal before the SMA is defined long_gate[~np.isfinite(sma)] = 0.0 # size the long with causal vol-targeting (shrinks into vol spikes -> cuts DD) pos = bl.vol_target(long_gate, df, target_vol=TARGET_VOL, vol_win_days=VOL_WIN_DAYS, leverage_cap=LEV_CAP) return np.clip(np.nan_to_num(pos, nan=0.0), -1.0, 1.0)