"""intra_score — judge an INTRADAY / short-horizon signal with the HARDENED marginal scorer. New axis (2026-06-21): everything post-reset was 1d. We have certified 5m/15m/1h. A module defines a CONTINUOUS-position signal: def target(df) -> np.array # per-bar position in [-1,1], decided <= close[i] # (or target(df, asset) if you need the asset name, e.g. for DVOL) This wraps altlib.study_marginal at the chosen TF: it compounds the intraday returns to a daily series, scores it vs TP01 with the HARDENED gates (multi-cut persistence, in-sample edge >=0.5, hedge-vs-alpha), AND reports the absolute robustness + FEE SWEEP (0.00-0.20% RT) + turnover. Intraday fights fees: a churner dies at 0.20% RT. earns_slot is the bullseye. uv run python scripts/research/intraday/intra_score.py --module --tf 1h uv run python scripts/research/intraday/intra_score.py --all --tf 1h """ from __future__ import annotations import argparse import importlib.util import json import sys from pathlib import Path HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parent sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt") import altlib as al # noqa: E402 AGENTS = HERE / "agents" def _target(path: Path): spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(path.stem, path) mod = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) spec.loader.exec_module(mod) return mod.target def score(path: Path, tf: str) -> dict: rec = {"name": path.stem, "tf": tf} try: target = _target(path) except Exception as e: return {**rec, "error": f"import: {e}", "earns_slot": False} # LOOK-AHEAD guard first: eval_weights' shift can't catch a non-causal FEATURE (centered # window / shift(-k) / full-sample stat). A leak is disqualified no matter its Sharpe. try: caus = al.causality_ok(target, tf=tf) rec["causal"] = bool(caus["ok"]) if not caus["ok"]: return {**rec, "causality": caus, "marginal_verdict": "LEAK", "earns_slot": False} except Exception as e: return {**rec, "error": f"causality: {e}", "causal": False, "earns_slot": False} try: rep = al.study_marginal(path.stem, target, tf=tf) except Exception as e: import traceback return {**rec, "error": f"score: {e}\n{traceback.format_exc()[-300:]}", "earns_slot": False} m = rep["marginal"] cell = rep["absolute"]["cells"][0] # min per-asset turnover/year + worst-case fee Sharpe (0.20% RT) turn = max(cell["per_asset"][a]["turnover"] for a in ("BTC", "ETH")) fee020 = min(cell["per_asset"][a]["fee_sweep"].get("0.20%RT", -9) for a in ("BTC", "ETH")) rec.update( abs_grade=rep["abs_grade"], marginal_verdict=rep["marginal_verdict"], earns_slot=rep["earns_slot"], corr_full=m.get("corr_full"), corr_hold=m.get("corr_hold"), uplift_hold=m.get("blends", {}).get("w25", {}).get("uplift_hold"), uplift_full=m.get("blends", {}).get("w25", {}).get("uplift_full"), cand_insample_sharpe=m.get("cand_insample_sharpe"), has_insample_edge=m.get("has_insample_edge"), is_hedge=m.get("is_hedge"), robust_oos=m.get("robust_oos"), multicut_persistent=m.get("multicut_persistent"), abs_full_sharpe=cell.get("min_asset_full_sharpe"), abs_hold_sharpe=cell.get("min_asset_holdout_sharpe"), turnover_per_year=round(turn, 1), fee020_full_sharpe=round(fee020, 3), fee_survives=cell.get("fee_survives"), ) # calendar-artifact guard: a signal whose marginal uplift INVERTS under a UTC day-boundary # shift is a labeling artifact (open_drive), not an intraday effect. INVARIANT (price # signal) and ROBUST (genuine calendar effect, e.g. prevday breakout) pass. try: db = al.day_boundary_robust(target, tf=tf) rec["boundary_verdict"] = db["verdict"] rec["boundary_spread"] = db["spread"] if db["verdict"] == "ARTIFACT-RISK": rec["earns_slot"] = False except Exception as e: rec["boundary_verdict"] = f"err:{e}" return rec def main(): ap = argparse.ArgumentParser() ap.add_argument("--module"); ap.add_argument("--tf", default="1h") ap.add_argument("--all", action="store_true") args = ap.parse_args() if args.all: rows = [] for p in sorted(AGENTS.glob("agent_*.py")): tf = "15m" if "_15m" in p.stem else args.tf rows.append(score(p, tf)) rows.sort(key=lambda r: (r.get("earns_slot", False), r.get("uplift_hold") or -9), reverse=True) print(f"\n INTRADAY wave ({len(rows)} signals) — hardened marginal judge + fee sweep") print(f" {'name':<26}{'tf':>4} {'verdict':<9}{'absG':>5}{'corrH':>6}{'up_h':>6}" f"{'is_sh':>6}{'turn':>6}{'fee.20':>7} slot") print(" " + "-" * 92) for r in rows: if "error" in r: print(f" {r['name'][:26]:<26}{r['tf']:>4} ERROR {r['error'][:40]}"); continue if r.get("causal") is False: print(f" {r['name'][:26]:<26}{r['tf']:>4} LEAK (look-ahead, disqualified) " f"max_tail_diff={r.get('causality', {}).get('max_tail_diff')}"); continue bflag = " CAL-ARTIFACT" if r.get("boundary_verdict") == "ARTIFACT-RISK" else "" print(f" {r['name'][:26]:<26}{r['tf']:>4} {str(r['marginal_verdict']):<9}" f"{str(r['abs_grade']):>5}{str(r.get('corr_hold')):>6}{str(r.get('uplift_hold')):>6}" f"{str(r.get('cand_insample_sharpe')):>6}{str(r.get('turnover_per_year')):>6}" f"{str(r.get('fee020_full_sharpe')):>7} {'<<<' if r.get('earns_slot') else bflag}") slots = [r["name"] for r in rows if r.get("earns_slot")] print(f"\n EARNS SLOT: {slots or 'NONE'}") (HERE / "intra_leaderboard.json").write_text(json.dumps(rows, indent=2, default=str)) else: print(json.dumps(score(Path(args.module), args.tf), indent=2, default=str)) if __name__ == "__main__": main()