"""LOGGER FORWARD della vol term-structure Deribit (l'UNICA via legittima per avere il dato). Lo scan (probe_vol_termstructure.py) ha stabilito: la storia per-scadenza NON e' pubblica su Deribit (DVOL solo 30g; trade-history IV solo per strumenti vivi; il front rotola). Quindi un calendar-vol NON e' backtestabile oggi. Questo logger COSTRUISCE il dataset in avanti: ogni run prende lo snapshot ATM mark_iv per scadenza, lo interpola a TENOR FISSI (7/30/60/90/180g) e appende una riga per asset a data/raw/vol_term_.parquet. Idempotente per giorno (riscrive la riga del giorno). Da cron giornaliero (NON auto-cablato: e' ricerca forward, va aggiunto a mano se si vuole): uv run python scripts/research/log_vol_termstructure.py Dopo ~6-12 mesi di accumulo -> certificare (cross-venue, monotonia, spike) e SOLO ALLORA testare un calendar-vol (front vs back) su dati certificati. Nessun edge creduto prima. """ from __future__ import annotations import sys from pathlib import Path PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2] sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT)) import datetime as _dt import numpy as np import pandas as pd import requests BASE = "https://www.deribit.com/api/v2/public/" RAW = PROJECT_ROOT / "data" / "raw" TENORS = [7, 30, 60, 90, 180] # giorni-a-scadenza fissi su cui interpolare l'ATM IV def _get(method, **params): return requests.get(BASE + method, params=params, timeout=40).json().get("result", None) def _atm_curve(cur, now_ms): """[(dte_giorni, atm_iv%)] ordinato per scadenza, dallo strike piu' vicino allo spot.""" summ = _get("get_book_summary_by_currency", currency=cur, kind="option") idx = _get("get_index_price", index_name=f"{cur.lower()}_usd") if not summ or not idx: return None, None spot = float(idx["index_price"]) best = {} # exp_ms -> (dist_strike, iv) for o in summ: p = o["instrument_name"].split("-") if len(p) != 4 or o.get("mark_iv") is None: continue try: exp_ms = int(_dt.datetime.strptime(p[1], "%d%b%y").replace( tzinfo=_dt.timezone.utc).timestamp() * 1000) except ValueError: continue d = abs(float(p[2]) - spot) if exp_ms not in best or d < best[exp_ms][0]: best[exp_ms] = (d, float(o["mark_iv"])) curve = sorted(((e - now_ms) / 86400_000.0, iv) for e, (_, iv) in best.items() if e > now_ms) return spot, curve def build_row(spot, curve, now_ms): """Pura: da (spot, curve=[(dte,iv)], now_ms) -> riga con ATM IV interpolata ai TENOR fissi.""" if not curve or len(curve) < 2: return None dtes = np.array([c[0] for c in curve]); ivs = np.array([c[1] for c in curve]) row = {"date": pd.Timestamp(now_ms, unit="ms", tz="UTC").normalize(), "spot": spot} for t in TENORS: row[f"iv_{t}d"] = float(np.interp(t, dtes, ivs)) # interp lineare sui DTE disponibili row["slope_7_180"] = row["iv_180d"] - row["iv_7d"] return row def snapshot(cur, now_ms): spot, curve = _atm_curve(cur, now_ms) return build_row(spot, curve, now_ms) if curve else None def append_row(cur, row): fp = RAW / f"vol_term_{cur.lower()}.parquet" df = pd.read_parquet(fp) if fp.exists() else pd.DataFrame() df = df[df["date"] != row["date"]] if len(df) else df # idempotente per giorno df = pd.concat([df, pd.DataFrame([row])], ignore_index=True).sort_values("date") df.to_parquet(fp, index=False) return fp, len(df) def main(): now_ms = int(pd.Timestamp.now("UTC").timestamp() * 1000) print("=" * 78) print(" LOG vol term-structure (forward dataset builder)") print("=" * 78) for cur in ("BTC", "ETH"): row = snapshot(cur, now_ms) if row is None: print(f" {cur}: snapshot fallito (chain vuota?)"); continue fp, n = append_row(cur, row) ivs = " ".join(f"{t}g {row[f'iv_{t}d']:.1f}%" for t in TENORS) print(f" {cur} {row['date'].date()} spot ${row['spot']:,.0f} | {ivs} | " f"slope7-180 {row['slope_7_180']:+.1f}pp -> {n} righe in {fp.name}") print("\n (forward-only: serve accumulo di mesi prima di poter certificare e testare un calendar-vol)") if __name__ == "__main__": main()