"""TRD11 — SMA50 slope momentum HYPOTHESIS: Position = sign of slope of SMA(50) over last k bars (long-flat variant). The slope of SMA(50) captures the direction of the medium-term trend. Long-flat: go long when slope > 0, flat otherwise. Grid: slope_window (k) in {3, 5, 10} bars. Vol-targeted position (target_vol=20%, leverage_cap=2x). """ import sys sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt") import altlib as al import numpy as np def make_target(sma_period: int = 50, slope_win: int = 5, long_flat: bool = True): """Return a target function for study_weights. sma_period: period of the SMA slope_win: number of bars to measure the slope over (slope = sma[i] - sma[i-slope_win]) long_flat: if True, only go long (flat when slope <= 0); if False, long/short """ def target(df): c = df["close"].values.astype(float) s = al.sma(c, sma_period) # Slope = change in SMA over slope_win bars (causal: uses s[i] vs s[i-slope_win]) slope = np.full(len(s), np.nan) for i in range(slope_win, len(s)): if np.isfinite(s[i]) and np.isfinite(s[i - slope_win]): slope[i] = s[i] - s[i - slope_win] # Direction signal if long_flat: direction = np.where(slope > 0, 1.0, 0.0) else: direction = np.where(slope > 0, 1.0, np.where(slope < 0, -1.0, 0.0)) # Mask NaN slope with flat direction = np.where(np.isfinite(slope), direction, 0.0) # Vol-target tgt = al.vol_target(direction, df, target_vol=0.20, vol_win_days=30, leverage_cap=2.0) return tgt target.__name__ = f"sma{sma_period}_slope{slope_win}_{'lf' if long_flat else 'ls'}" return target # Small internal grid: slope windows [3, 5, 10] all long-flat, plus one L/S variant configs = [ {"sma_period": 50, "slope_win": 3, "long_flat": True}, {"sma_period": 50, "slope_win": 5, "long_flat": True}, {"sma_period": 50, "slope_win": 10, "long_flat": True}, {"sma_period": 50, "slope_win": 5, "long_flat": False}, # L/S variant ] best_rep = None best_score = -999.0 for cfg in configs: name = f"TRD11-sma{cfg['sma_period']}-k{cfg['slope_win']}-{'LF' if cfg['long_flat'] else 'LS'}" fn = make_target(**cfg) rep = al.study_weights(name, fn, tfs=("1d", "12h")) # Score = min of BTC/ETH full Sharpe (most conservative) cells = rep.get("cells", []) best_cell_score = -999.0 for cell in cells: pa = cell.get("per_asset", {}) btc_sh = pa.get("BTC", {}).get("full", {}).get("sharpe", -999) eth_sh = pa.get("ETH", {}).get("full", {}).get("sharpe", -999) min_sh = min(btc_sh, eth_sh) # Also require positive holdout on both btc_ho = pa.get("BTC", {}).get("holdout", {}).get("sharpe", -999) eth_ho = pa.get("ETH", {}).get("holdout", {}).get("sharpe", -999) if btc_ho > 0 and eth_ho > 0: min_sh += 0.5 # bonus for positive holdout if min_sh > best_cell_score: best_cell_score = min_sh if best_cell_score > best_score: best_score = best_cell_score best_rep = rep print(f"\n*** NEW BEST: {name} score={best_cell_score:.3f} ***") print(al.fmt(rep)) print("\n\n=== BEST CONFIG ===") print(al.fmt(best_rep)) print("JSON:", al.as_json(best_rep))