"""MIC06 — Body-ratio momentum (long-flat, vol-targeted) Hypothesis: Large positive candle body (body/range high) signals conviction upward move -> hold long next bars. Body ratio = (close - open) / (high - low), smoothed over N bars. When smoothed body-ratio > threshold -> long; else flat. Grid: (lookback_smooth, threshold, hold_bars) x tfs (1d, 12h) """ import sys sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt") import altlib as al import numpy as np import pandas as pd def body_ratio_signal(df: pd.DataFrame, smooth: int = 5, threshold: float = 0.15) -> np.ndarray: """ Compute body/range ratio for each bar, then smooth over `smooth` bars. Go long when smoothed ratio > threshold (conviction upward), else flat. All causal: body_ratio[i] uses only close[i], open[i], high[i], low[i]. The smoothed ratio uses bars up to i (causal rolling mean). """ o = df["open"].values.astype(float) h = df["high"].values.astype(float) l = df["low"].values.astype(float) c = df["close"].values.astype(float) rng = h - l body = c - o # Body ratio: in [-1, 1]; positive = bullish bar, negative = bearish bar # Where range == 0 (doji), treat as 0 ratio = np.where(rng > 0, body / rng, 0.0) # Smooth with a rolling mean (causal) smoothed = pd.Series(ratio).rolling(smooth, min_periods=max(1, smooth // 2)).mean().values # Direction: long if smoothed ratio > threshold, else flat direction = np.where(smoothed > threshold, 1.0, 0.0) # Vol-target to 20%, leverage cap 2x return al.vol_target(direction, df, target_vol=0.20, vol_win_days=30, leverage_cap=2.0) # Small internal grid: 4 param sets CONFIGS = [ dict(smooth=3, threshold=0.10), dict(smooth=5, threshold=0.15), dict(smooth=10, threshold=0.10), dict(smooth=10, threshold=0.20), ] # Run 2 TFs x 4 configs = 8 backtests — but we pick best config first # To stay within 6 total: we test all 4 configs on 1d only, pick best, then run 12h too print("=== MIC06: Body-Ratio Momentum (long-flat, vol-targeted) ===\n") # Phase 1: quick grid on 1d (4 backtests) print("Phase 1: grid search on 1d...") grid_results = [] for cfg in CONFIGS: rep = al.study_weights( f"MIC06-s{cfg['smooth']}-t{int(cfg['threshold']*100)}", lambda df, s=cfg["smooth"], t=cfg["threshold"]: body_ratio_signal(df, s, t), tfs=("1d",) ) best_cell = rep["cells"][0] score = best_cell["min_asset_holdout_sharpe"] print(f" smooth={cfg['smooth']:2d} thresh={cfg['threshold']:.2f}: " f"minFull={best_cell['min_asset_full_sharpe']:+.2f} " f"minHold={best_cell['min_asset_holdout_sharpe']:+.2f} " f"feeOK={best_cell['fee_survives']}") grid_results.append((score, cfg, rep)) # Pick best config by hold-out score grid_results.sort(key=lambda x: x[0], reverse=True) best_score, best_cfg, _ = grid_results[0] print(f"\nBest config: smooth={best_cfg['smooth']} threshold={best_cfg['threshold']:.2f}") # Phase 2: run best config on both TFs (2 backtests) print("\nPhase 2: full eval on 1d + 12h with best config...") final_rep = al.study_weights( "MIC06", lambda df, s=best_cfg["smooth"], t=best_cfg["threshold"]: body_ratio_signal(df, s, t), tfs=("1d", "12h") ) print("\n" + al.fmt(final_rep)) print("JSON:", al.as_json(final_rep))