"""XM04 — Residual / Idiosyncratic Momentum IDEA: Instead of raw past return, score = cumulative idiosyncratic (beta-removed) return over the last L days. Should be a cleaner momentum signal: strips out the common market component and scores assets on their STOCK-SPECIFIC performance. Signal: for each day i and asset a, sum the daily residual_returns over [i-L+1 .. i]. residual_ret[t,a] = ret[t,a] - beta_t_a * market_ret[t] score[i,a] = sum(residual_ret[i-L+1:i+1, a]) (causal: uses data <= i) Grid (<=5 calls): 1. XM04-L30-maj : majors universe, L=30, H=10, k=5, LS 2. XM04-L60-maj : majors universe, L=60, H=10, k=5, LS 3. XM04-L30-all : all universe, L=30, H=10, k=5, LS 4. XM04-L30-maj-H5: majors, L=30, H=5, k=5, LS (faster rebal) 5. XM04-L30-maj-LO: majors, L=30, H=10, k=5, long-only (LO) """ import sys sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/xsec") import xslib as xs import numpy as np def resid_mom_score(P, L=30, beta_win=60): """Cumulative residual return over the last L days. residual_ret[t,a] = ret[t,a] - beta(win)*market_ret[t] score[i,a] = rolling sum of residual_ret over window L. All causal: roll_beta uses data <=i, rolling sum uses [i-L+1..i]. """ # daily idiosyncratic returns (n_days x n_assets), causal resid = xs.residual_return(P.ret, win=beta_win) # rolling sum over L days = cumulative idiosyncratic momentum score = xs.roll_mean(resid, L) * L # equiv to rolling sum (roll_mean * win) return score configs = [ # name, universe, L, H, k, long_short ("XM04-L30-maj", "majors", 30, 10, 5, True), ("XM04-L60-maj", "majors", 60, 10, 5, True), ("XM04-L30-all", "all", 30, 10, 5, True), ("XM04-L30-maj-H5", "majors", 30, 5, 5, True), ("XM04-L30-maj-LO", "majors", 30, 10, 5, False), ] results = [] for name, univ, L, H, k, ls in configs: print(f"\nRunning {name} ...") rep = xs.study_xs( name, lambda P, _L=L: resid_mom_score(P, L=_L, beta_win=60), universe=univ, H=H, k=k, long_short=ls, ) print(xs.fmt(rep)) results.append(rep) # Pick best: prefer earns_slot, then highest hold-out Sharpe, then most distinct from XS01 def score_config(r): earns = r["earns_slot"] hold_sh = r["holdout"].get("sharpe", -99) full_sh = r["full"]["sharpe"] corr_xs = r["corr_xs01"] or 1.0 # primary: earns_slot; secondary: holdout Sharpe; tiebreak: distinctness return (earns, hold_sh, full_sh, -abs(corr_xs)) best = max(results, key=score_config) print("\n" + "="*60) print("BEST CONFIG:") print(xs.fmt(best)) print("JSON:", xs.as_json(best))