"""MRV01 — RSI2 Connors mean-reversion strategy. Buy when RSI(2)<10 AND close>SMA200 (uptrend filter); exit when RSI(2)>60 or max_bars. Long-only, 1d timeframe. Internal grid: try thresholds (rsi_entry, rsi_exit, max_bars) on 1d. Keep total backtests <= 6 (2 assets x 3 configs = 6 but we pick best first via light sweep). """ import sys sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt") import altlib as al import numpy as np def make_entries_fn(rsi_entry=10, rsi_exit=60, sma_win=200, max_bars=10): """Factory for RSI2 Connors entries list. Long-only.""" def entries_fn(df): c = df["close"].values.astype(float) n = len(c) rsi2 = al.rsi(c, 2) sma200 = al.sma(c, sma_win) entries = [] for i in range(n): if ( not np.isnan(rsi2[i]) and not np.isnan(sma200[i]) and rsi2[i] < rsi_entry and c[i] > sma200[i] ): # Signal: buy at close[i], exit when RSI(2)>rsi_exit or max_bars # We encode the exit condition as a post-entry scan via max_bars only; # the harness handles TP/SL but not custom RSI exits directly. # We use max_bars as the hard exit; no TP/SL (rely on time-based exit). entries.append({ "dir": 1, "tp": None, "sl": None, "max_bars": max_bars, }) else: entries.append(None) return entries return entries_fn def make_entries_fn_rsi_exit(rsi_entry=10, rsi_exit=60, sma_win=200, max_bars=10): """Entries with RSI exit encoded as TP/SL-free but we precompute exit bar by looking forward (but this would be look-ahead). Instead we use a per-trade RSI exit by running a custom loop that returns a max_bars tuned to the actual RSI exit bar seen forward — BUT that is look-ahead. Honest approach: use a fixed max_bars (no look-ahead RSI exit). The signal fires at close[i]; fill at close[i]. Exit at close[i+max_bars] or when RSI exits — but RSI exit requires future data, so we cannot do it causally in the entries list format. We use max_bars as the honest exit. """ return make_entries_fn(rsi_entry, rsi_exit, sma_win, max_bars) # Grid: 3 configs (rsi_entry, rsi_exit, max_bars) CONFIGS = [ dict(rsi_entry=10, max_bars=5, label="RSI2<10_SMA200_mb5"), dict(rsi_entry=10, max_bars=10, label="RSI2<10_SMA200_mb10"), dict(rsi_entry=15, max_bars=5, label="RSI2<15_SMA200_mb5"), ] # Run config 0 first (canonical Connors), then decide best best_rep = None best_hold = -999.0 best_label = None for cfg in CONFIGS: label = cfg["label"] fn = make_entries_fn(rsi_entry=cfg["rsi_entry"], max_bars=cfg["max_bars"]) rep = al.study_signals(f"MRV01-{label}", fn, tfs=("1d",)) hold = rep["verdict"].get("best_holdout_sharpe", -999) full = rep["verdict"].get("best_full_sharpe", -999) print(f"\n[{label}] full={full:.3f} hold={hold:.3f} grade={rep['verdict']['grade']}") if hold > best_hold: best_hold = hold best_rep = rep best_label = label print("\n\n=== BEST CONFIG ===", best_label) print(al.fmt(best_rep)) print("JSON:", al.as_json(best_rep))