"""XS05b — Risk-parity momentum (inverse-vol weighted legs). MECHANISM: Select top-k / bottom-k by plain 60-day momentum (same as XS01), but instead of equal-weighting within long/short legs, weight each asset by INVERSE of its own recent volatility (60-day rolling std of daily returns). This approximates risk-parity within the cross-sectional book: lower-vol assets get larger weight, so each leg contributes roughly equal risk. LIMITATION / CAVEAT: - xslib.study_xs always equal-weights within legs (the score only determines SELECTION, not position sizing). We cannot pass per-asset weights directly through the study_xs interface. - Workaround: encode the inverse-vol signal INTO the score. After selecting the top-k / bottom-k by momentum rank, the harness will still equal-weight — but by blending the momentum z-score with the inverse-vol z-score we bias the SELECTION toward low-vol winners (i.e., the most risk-efficient longs rank higher). This is a partial approximation: true risk-parity would rescale weights post-selection; here we rescale the ranking pre-selection. - The blend is: score = z(mom60) + alpha * z(1/vol60), where alpha=1 gives equal weight to momentum rank and inverse-vol rank. GRID (<=5 calls): 1. XS05b-base : majors, H=10, k=5, L=60, alpha=1 (blend) 2. XS05b-all : all (49 alts), H=10, k=5, L=60, alpha=1 3. XS05b-a05 : majors, H=10, k=5, L=60, alpha=0.5 (lighter inv-vol) 4. XS05b-a2 : majors, H=10, k=5, L=60, alpha=2.0 (heavier inv-vol) 5. XS05b-H5 : majors, H=5, k=5, L=60, alpha=1 (faster rebalance) """ import sys sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/xsec") import xslib as xs import numpy as np def score_xs05b(P, L=60, alpha=1.0): """Risk-parity momentum score (causal). score = z_cross(mom_L) + alpha * z_cross(inv_vol_L) Higher score -> more risk-efficient momentum winner -> long. Lower score -> more risk-efficient momentum loser -> short. """ # 1. momentum signal (L-day return, causal) mom = xs.past_return(P.close, L) # (n_days, n_assets), uses close[i-L:i] z_mom = xs.xs_zscore(mom) # 2. inverse-vol signal (rolling std of daily returns, causal) vol = xs.roll_std(P.ret, L) # (n_days, n_assets) inv_vol = np.where(vol > 0, 1.0 / vol, np.nan) z_inv_vol = xs.xs_zscore(inv_vol) # 3. blend score = z_mom + alpha * z_inv_vol return score results = {} # --- Config 1: majors, H=10, k=5, alpha=1 (baseline blend) --- rep1 = xs.study_xs( "XS05b-base", lambda P: score_xs05b(P, L=60, alpha=1.0), universe="majors", H=10, k=5, long_short=True ) results["XS05b-base"] = rep1 print(xs.fmt(rep1)) print("JSON:", xs.as_json(rep1)) print() # --- Config 2: all alts, H=10, k=5, alpha=1 --- rep2 = xs.study_xs( "XS05b-all", lambda P: score_xs05b(P, L=60, alpha=1.0), universe="all", H=10, k=5, long_short=True ) results["XS05b-all"] = rep2 print(xs.fmt(rep2)) print("JSON:", xs.as_json(rep2)) print() # --- Config 3: majors, H=10, k=5, alpha=0.5 (lighter inv-vol) --- rep3 = xs.study_xs( "XS05b-a05", lambda P: score_xs05b(P, L=60, alpha=0.5), universe="majors", H=10, k=5, long_short=True ) results["XS05b-a05"] = rep3 print(xs.fmt(rep3)) print("JSON:", xs.as_json(rep3)) print() # --- Config 4: majors, H=10, k=5, alpha=2.0 (heavier inv-vol) --- rep4 = xs.study_xs( "XS05b-a2", lambda P: score_xs05b(P, L=60, alpha=2.0), universe="majors", H=10, k=5, long_short=True ) results["XS05b-a2"] = rep4 print(xs.fmt(rep4)) print("JSON:", xs.as_json(rep4)) print() # --- Config 5: majors, H=5, k=5, alpha=1 (faster rebalance) --- rep5 = xs.study_xs( "XS05b-H5", lambda P: score_xs05b(P, L=60, alpha=1.0), universe="majors", H=5, k=5, long_short=True ) results["XS05b-H5"] = rep5 print(xs.fmt(rep5)) print("JSON:", xs.as_json(rep5)) print() # --- Summary --- print("=" * 60) print("SUMMARY — XS05b grid") print("=" * 60) fmt_h = f"{'Config':<16} {'FullSh':>7} {'HoldSh':>7} {'MaxDD':>7} {'CorrXS01':>9} {'EarnsSlot':>10} {'Verdict':>10}" print(fmt_h) print("-" * 70) for name, r in results.items(): fs = r["full"]["sharpe"] hs = r["holdout"]["sharpe"] dd = r["full"]["maxdd"] cxs = r.get("corr_xs01", float("nan")) es = r.get("earns_slot", False) vd = r.get("marginal", {}).get("verdict", "N/A") print(f"{name:<16} {fs:>7.2f} {hs:>7.2f} {dd:>7.2f} {cxs:>9.3f} {str(es):>10} {vd:>10}")