"""TRACK D on DIFFERENT TIMEFRAMES — per-year PnL and per-year max drawdown. Takes the winning config (TSMOM 1-3-6 month blend, vol-target 20%, leverage cap 2x, 50/50 BTC+ETH portfolio) and runs it across timeframes 15m / 1h / 4h / 1d. Honesty preserved: same building blocks as trackD_trendport.py (positions shifted +1 bar, fee 0.10% RT on turnover, vol-targeting on past-only realized vol). Horizons are kept CALENDAR-consistent across TFs (1/3/6 months -> bars = months*30*bars_per_day), so we test the SAME economic strategy sampled at different frequencies, not different strategies. 4h/1d are RESAMPLED from the certified 1h feed (00:00 UTC boundaries). Run: uv run python scripts/research/trackD_timing.py """ from __future__ import annotations import sys from pathlib import Path import numpy as np import pandas as pd sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2])) from src.backtest.harness import load from scripts.research.trackD_trendport import ( simple_returns, realized_vol, sig_tsmom_blend, build_target, equity_from_target, ) ASSETS = ["BTC", "ETH"] FEE_SIDE = 0.0005 # 0.05%/side = 0.10% RT TARGET_VOL = 0.20 LEVERAGE = 2.0 # timeframe -> (load_tf, resample_rule_or_None, bars_per_day) TIMEFRAMES = { "15m": ("15m", None, 96), "1h": ("1h", None, 24), "4h": ("1h", "4h", 6), "1d": ("1h", "1D", 1), } def resample_ohlc(df: pd.DataFrame, rule: str) -> pd.DataFrame: g = df.copy() idx = pd.to_datetime(g["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True) idx.name = "dt" g.index = idx out = g.resample(rule, label="left", closed="left").agg( {"open": "first", "high": "max", "low": "min", "close": "last", "volume": "sum"}) out = out.dropna(subset=["open"]) out["datetime"] = out.index epoch = pd.Timestamp("1970-01-01", tz="UTC") out["timestamp"] = ((out.index - epoch) // pd.Timedelta(milliseconds=1)).astype("int64") return out.reset_index(drop=True)[["timestamp", "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume", "datetime"]] def get_df(tf_key: str, asset: str) -> pd.DataFrame: load_tf, rule, _ = TIMEFRAMES[tf_key] df = load(asset, load_tf) if rule: df = resample_ohlc(df, rule) return df def run_asset(df, bars_per_day, target_vol=TARGET_VOL, leverage=LEVERAGE, long_only=False, fee_side=FEE_SIDE): c = df["close"].values.astype(float) r = simple_returns(c) bpy = bars_per_day * 365.25 # recompute building blocks at this TF's bar frequency h1, h3, h6 = 30 * bars_per_day, 90 * bars_per_day, 180 * bars_per_day vol_win = 30 * bars_per_day # realized_vol / tsmom use BARS_PER_YEAR from trackD (1h) for annualization of vol; # we must annualize with THIS tf's bpy -> compute vol locally vol = pd.Series(r).rolling(vol_win, min_periods=vol_win // 2).std().values * np.sqrt(bpy) direction = sig_tsmom_blend(c, horizons=(h1, h3, h6)) tgt = build_target(direction, vol, target_vol, leverage, long_only) equity, net = equity_from_target(tgt, r, fee_side) # discrete position SIGN for trade counting (entry = sign change to a new non-zero state) sign = np.sign(tgt) return dict(net=net, ts=df["datetime"], equity=equity, bpy=bpy, sign=sign, target=tgt) def portfolio_series(sleeves): a = pd.Series(sleeves["BTC"]["net"], index=pd.to_datetime(sleeves["BTC"]["ts"].values)) b = pd.Series(sleeves["ETH"]["net"], index=pd.to_datetime(sleeves["ETH"]["ts"].values)) j = pd.concat([a.rename("a"), b.rename("b")], axis=1, join="inner").fillna(0.0) combo = 0.5 * j["a"].values + 0.5 * j["b"].values idx = pd.to_datetime(j.index) equity = np.cumprod(1.0 + np.clip(combo, -0.99, None)) return idx, combo, equity def overall_metrics(idx, combo, equity, bpy): rr = combo[np.isfinite(combo)] sharpe = float(np.mean(rr) / np.std(rr) * np.sqrt(bpy)) if np.std(rr) > 0 else 0.0 peak = np.maximum.accumulate(equity) dd = float(np.max((peak - equity) / peak)) span_days = (idx[-1] - idx[0]).total_seconds() / 86400 years = span_days / 365.25 total = equity[-1] / equity[0] cagr = total ** (1 / years) - 1 if years > 0 and total > 0 else -1.0 daily_2k = (2000 * total - 2000) / span_days if span_days > 0 else 0.0 return dict(sharpe=sharpe, max_dd=dd, cagr=cagr, total=total - 1, daily_2k=daily_2k) def per_year(idx, equity): """Return {year: (pnl_pct, maxdd_pct)} where maxdd is the worst drawdown WITHIN the year.""" eq = pd.Series(equity, index=idx) out = {} for y, g in eq.groupby(eq.index.year): if len(g) < 2: continue pnl = g.iloc[-1] / g.iloc[0] - 1.0 v = g.values peak = np.maximum.accumulate(v) ddy = float(np.max((peak - v) / peak)) out[int(y)] = (float(pnl), ddy) return out def trades_per_year(sleeves): """Count entries per year, summed across both sleeves. An 'entry' = the position SIGN changing to a new non-zero value (flat->long, flat->short, or a direction flip).""" counts: dict[int, int] = {} for a in ASSETS: sign = sleeves[a]["sign"] ts = pd.to_datetime(sleeves[a]["ts"].values) for i in range(1, len(sign)): s, prev = sign[i], sign[i - 1] if s != 0 and s != prev: # entry: from flat or opposite into a non-zero state counts[ts[i].year] = counts.get(ts[i].year, 0) + 1 return counts ALL_YEARS = list(range(2018, 2027)) def main(): print("=" * 118) print("# TRACK D WINNER ACROSS TIMEFRAMES — TSMOM 1-3-6m blend, vol-target 20%, lev 2x, 50/50 BTC+ETH") print("# fee 0.10% RT on turnover, positions +1 bar (no look-ahead). 4h/1d resampled from certified 1h.") print("=" * 118) for mode_long_only, mode_name in ((False, "LONG-SHORT"), (True, "LONG-FLAT")): print("\n" + "#" * 118) print(f"# MODE = {mode_name}") print("#" * 118) for tf_key in TIMEFRAMES: bpd = TIMEFRAMES[tf_key][2] sleeves = {a: run_asset(get_df(tf_key, a), bpd, long_only=mode_long_only) for a in ASSETS} idx, combo, equity = portfolio_series(sleeves) ov = overall_metrics(idx, combo, equity, sleeves["BTC"]["bpy"]) py = per_year(idx, equity) tpy = trades_per_year(sleeves) total_trades = sum(tpy.values()) print(f"\n ── TF {tf_key:<3s} │ ret {ov['total']*100:>+8.0f}% CAGR {ov['cagr']*100:>+6.1f}% " f"Sharpe {ov['sharpe']:>4.2f} maxDD {ov['max_dd']*100:>4.1f}% " f"€/day(2k) {ov['daily_2k']:>+6.2f} trades {total_trades}") # per-year PnL / DD / trades rows print(f" {'PnL %':<8s}" + "".join( (" . " if y not in py else f"{py[y][0]*100:>+7.0f}") for y in ALL_YEARS)) print(f" {'maxDD %':<8s}" + "".join( (" . " if y not in py else f"{py[y][1]*100:>7.1f}") for y in ALL_YEARS)) print(f" {'trades':<8s}" + "".join( (" . " if y not in py else f"{tpy.get(y,0):>7d}") for y in ALL_YEARS)) # year header for reference print("\n " + "year ".ljust(8) + "".join(f"{y:>7d}" for y in ALL_YEARS)) if __name__ == "__main__": main()