Adriano Dal Pastro
1aa5a0616a
research(capitale): 3k o 5k -> ~3.7 mesi su 11.5 anni, non e' una decisione importante
...
r0727_3k_vs_5k.py. Domanda dell'operatore, poi ristretta a "fregatene del fuori": quanto
versare su Deribit dei 6.043 EUR fermi in XEON.
Tutto su Deribit, 500 EUR/mese, bersaglio 272.061$:
3.000 EUR -> 11.73 anni 4.000 -> 11.58 5.000 -> 11.42 6.043 -> 11.28
Ogni 1.000 EUR in piu' all'inizio vale ~1.8 MESI. P(entro 20a) 100% in tutti i casi.
Il motivo strutturale: fino al traguardo entrano ~69.000 EUR di versamenti, quindi il
versamento iniziale e' il 4-9% del flusso totale. La decisione che conta e' la SOSTENIBILITA'
dei 500/mese (26/07: smettere al 5o anno porta P(muro) dal 90% al 53% = venti volte l'effetto
misurato qui).
Aggiunto anche il taglio con il venue dentro (quota fuori 46% vs 16%) e il fatto che con i
versamenti su Deribit quella quota si DILUISCE: 4.0 anni di copertura versando 3k, 0.7 anni
versando 5k -> la differenza fra i due e' temporanea, non una postura permanente.
simulate() accetta dep_to (dove vanno i versamenti); replica del 26/07 preservata.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-27 19:17:59 +00:00
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