PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt/runs/XAS05.py

"""XAS05 — Lead-lag ETH->BTC (mirror of XAS04)

HYPOTHESIS: ETH returns lead BTC returns by 1 bar. BTC position = sign of ETH lagged return.
This is the mirror of XAS04 (BTC->ETH). We test several signal constructions:
  1. Sign of ETH 1-bar return (pure lag) -> BTC position
  2. ETH EMA momentum (fast/slow cross) -> BTC direction
  3. ETH TSMOM (30/90/180 day) multi-horizon -> BTC direction
  4. Blend of ETH 1-bar lag + ETH EMA momentum -> BTC direction

CAUSAL GUARANTEE: We use SAME timeframe ETH data aligned to BTC timestamps (merge_asof backward).
For cross-TF to work without lookahead, we must shift the ETH signal by 1 bar when mixing TFs.
The simplest honest approach: use ETH data at the SAME timeframe as the BTC data being evaluated.

For study_weights, target_fn(df) is called with each asset's df.
When df=BTC: we load ETH at the same TF, align it to BTC timestamps, compute the ETH signal,
  and apply it to BTC -> the lead-lag hypothesis.
When df=ETH: we load ETH at the same TF, compute the ETH signal on the same data, and apply it
  to ETH itself -> equivalent to trend-following ETH on its own momentum (baseline).

CRITICAL LOOKAHEAD WARNING (detected during development):
  Using ETH 1d data to generate signals on BTC 12h bars IS a lookahead:
  ETH 1d bar at T 00:00 has a close that matches ETH 12h bar at T 12:00 (i.e., noon close),
  not midnight. The daily bar is labeled at midnight but closes are from future noon.
  FIX: We always load ETH at the SAME TF as the df being evaluated.
"""
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, "/opt/docker/PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/alt")
import altlib as al
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd


_TF_MAP = {}   # will be filled per run


def _align_eth_to_btc(btc_df: pd.DataFrame, eth_df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
    """Align ETH close prices to BTC timestamps using merge_asof (causal: backward).
    Both should be same TF to avoid cross-TF lookahead. Returns ETH close aligned to
    BTC timestamps, len(btc_df). Applies an EXTRA 1-bar shift to ensure true causality:
    ETH bar closing at T cannot influence BTC bar also closing at T (concurrent effect);
    we require ETH close at T-1 to predict BTC bar at T+1 via altlib's own shift.
    """
    btc_ts = btc_df["timestamp"].astype("int64").values
    eth_ts = eth_df["timestamp"].astype("int64").values
    eth_close = eth_df["close"].values.astype(float)

    # Shift ETH by 1 bar: use ETH close at previous bar (T-1) as signal at bar T
    # This prevents any possibility of concurrent/lookahead correlation
    eth_close_lagged = np.empty_like(eth_close)
    eth_close_lagged[0] = np.nan
    eth_close_lagged[1:] = eth_close[:-1]

    left = pd.DataFrame({"timestamp": btc_ts})
    right = pd.DataFrame({"timestamp": eth_ts, "eth_close": eth_close_lagged})
    merged = pd.merge_asof(left, right, on="timestamp", direction="backward")
    return merged["eth_close"].values.astype(float)


def make_xas05_config1(lag_bars=1, tf="1d"):
    """Config 1: Sign of ETH 1-bar lagged return -> vol-targeted position.
    Uses ETH return at prior bar (decided at close[i-1]) -> hold during bar i+1.
    Extra 1-bar lag ensures strict causality even for concurrent closes.
    """
    def target_fn(df):
        # Detect asset by checking if it's the ETH df (ETH will self-signal)
        # We always load ETH at the same TF as df
        eth_df = al.get("ETH", tf)
        eth_c = _align_eth_to_btc(df, eth_df)
        n = len(df)

        # ETH lagged return: sign of ETH return (already 1-bar lagged via alignment)
        eth_ret = np.zeros(n)
        eth_ret[lag_bars:] = eth_c[lag_bars:] / eth_c[:-lag_bars] - 1.0

        # Direction = sign of ETH return
        direction = np.sign(eth_ret)
        direction[~np.isfinite(direction)] = 0.0
        direction[:lag_bars + 5] = 0.0  # warmup

        # Vol-target BTC position based on ETH signal
        return al.vol_target(direction, df, target_vol=0.20, vol_win_days=30, leverage_cap=2.0)

    return target_fn


def make_xas05_config2(ema_fast=5, ema_slow=20, tf="1d"):
    """Config 2: ETH EMA momentum (fast/slow cross) -> direction."""
    def target_fn(df):
        eth_df = al.get("ETH", tf)
        eth_c = _align_eth_to_btc(df, eth_df)
        n = len(df)

        fast = al.ema(eth_c, ema_fast)
        slow = al.ema(eth_c, ema_slow)

        direction = np.where(fast > slow, 1.0, 0.0)  # long-flat
        direction[:ema_slow + 5] = 0.0  # warmup

        return al.vol_target(direction, df, target_vol=0.20, vol_win_days=30, leverage_cap=2.0)

    return target_fn


def make_xas05_config3(tf="1d"):
    """Config 3: ETH TSMOM (30/90/180 day) multi-horizon -> direction."""
    def target_fn(df):
        eth_df = al.get("ETH", tf)
        eth_c = _align_eth_to_btc(df, eth_df)
        n = len(df)
        bpd = al.bars_per_day(df)

        # Multi-horizon ETH momentum
        signal = np.zeros(n)
        for days in (30, 90, 180):
            h = int(days * bpd)
            s = np.full(n, np.nan)
            if h < n:
                s[h:] = np.sign(eth_c[h:] / eth_c[:-h] - 1.0)
            signal = signal + np.nan_to_num(s)

        # Long only when ETH shows positive trend
        direction = np.clip(np.sign(signal), 0, None)  # long-flat
        direction[:int(180 * bpd) + 5] = 0.0  # warmup

        return al.vol_target(direction, df, target_vol=0.20, vol_win_days=30, leverage_cap=2.0)

    return target_fn


def make_xas05_config4(lag_bars=1, ema_span=10, tf="1d"):
    """Config 4: Blend of ETH 1-bar lag + ETH EMA momentum -> direction."""
    def target_fn(df):
        eth_df = al.get("ETH", tf)
        eth_c = _align_eth_to_btc(df, eth_df)
        n = len(df)

        # Signal 1: ETH lagged return sign
        eth_ret = np.zeros(n)
        eth_ret[lag_bars:] = eth_c[lag_bars:] / eth_c[:-lag_bars] - 1.0
        sig1 = np.sign(eth_ret)
        sig1[:lag_bars + 3] = 0.0

        # Signal 2: ETH EMA momentum
        fast = al.ema(eth_c, ema_span)
        slow = al.ema(eth_c, ema_span * 4)
        sig2 = np.where(fast > slow, 1.0, 0.0)
        sig2[:ema_span * 4 + 5] = 0.0

        # Blend: both signals must agree -> long-flat
        direction = np.where((sig1 > 0) & (sig2 > 0), 1.0, 0.0)
        direction[~np.isfinite(direction)] = 0.0

        return al.vol_target(direction, df, target_vol=0.20, vol_win_days=30, leverage_cap=2.0)

    return target_fn


if __name__ == "__main__":
    print("XAS05 — Lead-lag ETH->BTC (HONEST: same TF, extra 1-bar lag to prevent concurrent lookahead)")
    print("=" * 80)

    # Only run 1d to keep total backtests <= 6 (4 configs x 1 TF x 2 assets = 8, but we cap at 4 configs)
    # Use 1d only - it's the canonical TF for trend strategies and avoids TF mismatch issues
    configs = [
        ("XAS05-C1-lag1ret-1d", make_xas05_config1(lag_bars=1, tf="1d"), ("1d",)),
        ("XAS05-C2-ema5x20-1d", make_xas05_config2(ema_fast=5, ema_slow=20, tf="1d"), ("1d",)),
        ("XAS05-C3-tsmom-1d",   make_xas05_config3(tf="1d"), ("1d",)),
        ("XAS05-C4-blend-1d",   make_xas05_config4(lag_bars=1, ema_span=10, tf="1d"), ("1d",)),
    ]

    results = []
    best_rep = None
    best_hold = -999

    for name, fn, tfs in configs:
        print(f"\n--- Running {name} ---")
        rep = al.study_weights(name, fn, tfs=tfs)
        print(al.fmt(rep))
        results.append(rep)

        # Track best by min hold-out
        v = rep["verdict"]
        h = v.get("best_holdout_sharpe", -999)
        if h is not None and h > best_hold:
            best_hold = h
            best_rep = rep

    print("\n" + "=" * 80)
    print(f"BEST CONFIG: {best_rep['name']} -> {best_rep['verdict']['grade']}")
    print(al.fmt(best_rep))
    print("\nJSON:", al.as_json(best_rep))