Adriano Dal Pastro
bdd9e60355
research: tabella anno per anno del piano (EUR 5.000 + 500/mese)
...
Mette in forma leggibile le misure di r0726_piano_5k500.py, anno per anno e con gli anni
di calendario, piu' tre colonne che mancavano e che servono a leggerla onestamente:
quanto hai VERSATO fino a quel punto (senza, il capitale sembra rendimento), la banda
p10-p90 (meta' dei percorsi sta fuori dalla mediana) e la soglia attraversata.
Traguardo EUR 50/g al capitale mediano: anno 12 (2038). P(traguardo) 16% a 10 anni,
53% a 12, 92% a 15, 99.9% a 20.
Il pezzo che conta: la quota di capitale che viene dal RENDIMENTO invece che dai
versamenti e' 10% al primo anno, 39% al quinto, 63% al decimo, 88% al ventesimo. I primi
anni si giudicano sui versamenti, non sui risultati — e' il motivo per cui il piano e'
fragile all'interruzione precoce (misurato: i primi 5 anni sono il 25% dei soldi e il 58%
del risultato).
Regola del progetto rispettata: un numero pubblicato deve avere uno script committato che
lo riproduce.
Ipotesi dichiarate in testa allo script: x0.89 misurato, book live TP01+SKH01, fisco 33%,
NESSUN rischio di venue e NESSUN decadimento dell'edge (misurati in r0726_venue_risk.py e
r0726_decadimento.py, da leggere insieme a questa).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-26 21:35:37 +00:00
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