Adriano Dal Pastro
fa18621eb3
research(capitale): 50 EUR/g in 10 anni costa ~870 EUR/mese, non 500
...
Vincolo nuovo dell'operatore (49 anni, non oltre 10 anni). r0727_orizzonte10.py.
Il piano attuale NON regge il vincolo: 5.000 EUR + 500/mese danno P(entro 10a) = 19.7%
(mediana incondizionata ~11.4 anni).
Quanto serve al mese per 10 anni, con lump 5.000:
P=50% -> 689 EUR P=75% -> 870 EUR P=90% -> 1.047 EUR
A P=75% si versano $119.273 per arrivare a $272.061: e' la frase del 26/07 col prezzo
attaccato (a orizzonte corto non fai lavorare la strategia, compri il capitale coi bonifici).
Tabella inversa (lump 5k), cio' che si compra in 10 anni:
500/m -> 36.90 EUR/g 800/m -> 55.57 1.000/m -> 72.66 1.500/m -> 105.94
Due difetti miei corretti prima di pubblicare:
- la colonna "anni mediani" era CONDIZIONATA ai percorsi che arrivano: mostrava 9.4 anni
accanto a P=15%, che e' contraddittorio. Ora e' etichettata "mediana SE ce la fa".
- il muro stampato (254.524$, ricalcolato dalle serie di questo script) non era quello usato
nelle simulazioni (272.061$ pubblicato). Le due costruzioni del book live danno rendite
perpetue 10.91% e 11.67%; si tiene la conservativa e si dichiara la differenza.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-27 19:29:37 +00:00
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