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Cerbero-Bite/tests/unit/test_entry_validator.py
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root b1836d91c2 refactor(core): IV-RV adattivo distinct-days policy + backfill Deribit
Sblocca il warmup hard del gate IV-RV adattivo (~21 giorni residui)
permettendo di mischiare cadenze diverse (tick live 15min + backfill
giornaliero) senza assumere il fattore costante 96 tick/giorno.

API change (no backwards-compat shims):
* compute_adaptive_threshold(history, *, n_days, percentile,
  absolute_floor): rimossi `min_days`/`target_days`. La selezione
  finestra (target_days/min_days/intera storia) si sposta al caller.
  Warmup hard quando `n_days == 0`.
* repository: rimosso `iv_rv_history`; aggiunti
  `count_iv_rv_distinct_days` (COUNT DISTINCT substr(ts,1,10)) e
  `iv_rv_values_for_window`.
* EntryContext aggiunge `iv_rv_n_days: int = 0`. entry_cycle calcola
  n_days, sceglie window_days e popola il context. Audit
  `iv_rv_n_days` reale (non più len/96).
* GUI Calibrazione: counter giorni distinti tramite set di date.
* Spec aggiornata con errata 2026-05-10 e nuova warmup table.

Backfill (scripts/backfill_iv_rv.py, stdlib-only):
* Fetch DVOL daily + ETH/BTC-PERPETUAL closes da Deribit public REST.
* Calcolo RV30d annualizzato (stdev log-return × √365 × 100).
* INSERT OR REPLACE in market_snapshots con timestamp 12:00 UTC e
  fetch_errors_json='{"backfill":true}' per distinzione audit.
* Compute layer testato (9 test): RV su prezzi costanti/monotoni/
  alternati, build_records con cutoff e missing data.

Verifica live post-deploy (10 mag 2026 08:50 UTC):
* ETH: n_days=46, P25=2.21 vol pt, IV-RV=10.05 → gate PASS
* BTC: n_days=46, P25=5.69 vol pt, IV-RV=8.60  → gate PASS

509 test passati (500 esistenti + 9 backfill), ruff pulito.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 08:52:05 +00:00

539 lines
18 KiB
Python

"""TDD for :mod:`cerbero_bite.core.entry_validator`.
Spec: ``docs/01-strategy-rules.md §2,§3.1`` and ``docs/03-algorithms.md §1``.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from decimal import Decimal
import pytest
from cerbero_bite.config import EntryConfig, StrategyConfig, golden_config
from cerbero_bite.core.entry_validator import (
EntryContext,
TrendContext,
compute_bias,
validate_entry,
)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Helpers
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def _good_ctx(**overrides: object) -> EntryContext:
base: dict[str, object] = {
"capital_usd": Decimal("1500"),
"dvol_now": Decimal("50"),
"funding_perp_annualized": Decimal("0.10"),
"eth_holdings_pct_of_portfolio": Decimal("0.10"),
"next_macro_event_in_days": None,
"has_open_position": False,
}
base.update(overrides)
return EntryContext(**base) # type: ignore[arg-type]
@pytest.fixture
def cfg() -> StrategyConfig:
return golden_config()
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# validate_entry — happy path
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def test_validate_entry_accepts_clean_context(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is True
assert decision.reasons == []
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# validate_entry — single-reason rejections
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def test_open_position_blocks_entry(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(has_open_position=True), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert any("position" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_capital_below_minimum_blocks_entry(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(capital_usd=Decimal("719.99")), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert any("capital" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_capital_at_minimum_is_accepted(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(capital_usd=Decimal("720")), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is True
def test_dvol_below_minimum_blocks_entry(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(dvol_now=Decimal("34.99")), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert any("dvol" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_dvol_above_maximum_blocks_entry(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(dvol_now=Decimal("90.01")), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert any("dvol" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_dvol_at_boundaries_is_accepted(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
assert validate_entry(_good_ctx(dvol_now=Decimal("35")), cfg).accepted
assert validate_entry(_good_ctx(dvol_now=Decimal("90")), cfg).accepted
def test_macro_event_within_dte_blocks_entry(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(next_macro_event_in_days=5), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert any("macro" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_macro_event_at_dte_boundary_blocks_entry(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
# next_macro_event_in_days <= dte_target → block. dte_target = 18.
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(next_macro_event_in_days=18), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is False
def test_macro_event_beyond_dte_is_ok(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(next_macro_event_in_days=19), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is True
def test_macro_none_is_ok(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(next_macro_event_in_days=None), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is True
def test_funding_above_abs_cap_blocks(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(funding_perp_annualized=Decimal("0.81")), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert any("funding" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_funding_negative_below_neg_cap_blocks(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(funding_perp_annualized=Decimal("-0.81")), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is False
def test_funding_at_cap_is_accepted(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
assert validate_entry(_good_ctx(funding_perp_annualized=Decimal("0.80")), cfg).accepted
def test_eth_holdings_above_cap_blocks(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(eth_holdings_pct_of_portfolio=Decimal("0.31")), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert any("holdings" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_eth_holdings_at_cap_is_accepted(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
assert validate_entry(
_good_ctx(eth_holdings_pct_of_portfolio=Decimal("0.30")), cfg
).accepted
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# validate_entry — accumulates ALL failure reasons
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def test_dealer_short_gamma_blocks_entry(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(dealer_net_gamma=Decimal("-5")), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert any("dealer short-gamma" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_dealer_long_gamma_passes(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(dealer_net_gamma=Decimal("100")), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is True
def test_dealer_gamma_none_skips_filter(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(dealer_net_gamma=None), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is True
def test_liquidation_squeeze_high_blocks_entry(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(liquidation_squeeze_risk_high=True), cfg
)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert any("liquidation squeeze" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_liquidation_squeeze_filter_disabled_in_config(
cfg: StrategyConfig,
) -> None:
permissive = golden_config(
entry=EntryConfig(
**{**cfg.entry.model_dump(), "liquidation_filter_enabled": False}
)
)
decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(liquidation_squeeze_risk_high=True), permissive
)
assert decision.accepted is True
def test_dealer_gamma_filter_disabled_in_config(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
permissive = golden_config(
entry=EntryConfig(
**{**cfg.entry.model_dump(), "dealer_gamma_filter_enabled": False}
)
)
decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(dealer_net_gamma=Decimal("-1000")), permissive
)
assert decision.accepted is True
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# IV richness gate (§2.9)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def _strict_iv_rv_cfg(
cfg: StrategyConfig, *, threshold: Decimal = Decimal("5")
) -> StrategyConfig:
return golden_config(
entry=EntryConfig(
**{
**cfg.entry.model_dump(),
"iv_minus_rv_filter_enabled": True,
"iv_minus_rv_min": threshold,
}
)
)
def test_iv_richness_gate_disabled_by_default_lets_thin_premium_pass(
cfg: StrategyConfig,
) -> None:
# Default config: filter disabled. Anche con IV-RV negativa (RV>IV)
# l'entry deve passare per non rompere setup pre-calibrazione.
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(iv_minus_rv=Decimal("-2")), cfg)
assert decision.accepted is True
def test_iv_richness_gate_blocks_when_below_floor(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
strict = _strict_iv_rv_cfg(cfg, threshold=Decimal("5"))
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(iv_minus_rv=Decimal("3")), strict)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert any("IV richness" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_iv_richness_gate_passes_when_above_floor(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
strict = _strict_iv_rv_cfg(cfg, threshold=Decimal("5"))
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(iv_minus_rv=Decimal("6")), strict)
assert decision.accepted is True
def test_iv_richness_gate_passes_at_exact_threshold(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
# Soglia inclusiva: IV-RV == soglia → accettato (gate è "<", non "<=").
strict = _strict_iv_rv_cfg(cfg, threshold=Decimal("5"))
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(iv_minus_rv=Decimal("5")), strict)
assert decision.accepted is True
def test_iv_richness_gate_skipped_when_data_missing(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
# MCP irraggiungibile: best-effort skip, non bloccare l'entry per
# un problema di infrastruttura.
strict = _strict_iv_rv_cfg(cfg, threshold=Decimal("5"))
decision = validate_entry(_good_ctx(iv_minus_rv=None), strict)
assert decision.accepted is True
def test_validate_entry_accumulates_all_reasons(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(
has_open_position=True,
capital_usd=Decimal("100"),
dvol_now=Decimal("10"),
funding_perp_annualized=Decimal("1.5"),
eth_holdings_pct_of_portfolio=Decimal("0.9"),
next_macro_event_in_days=2,
),
cfg,
)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert len(decision.reasons) >= 6
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# compute_bias
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def _trend(
*,
eth_now: str = "3000",
eth_30d_ago: str = "3000",
funding_cross: str = "0",
dvol: str = "50",
adx: str = "25",
) -> TrendContext:
return TrendContext(
eth_now=Decimal(eth_now),
eth_30d_ago=Decimal(eth_30d_ago),
funding_cross_annualized=Decimal(funding_cross),
dvol_now=Decimal(dvol),
adx_14=Decimal(adx),
)
def test_bias_both_bull_returns_bull_put(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
# +6% trend, +25% funding
ctx = _trend(eth_now="3180", eth_30d_ago="3000", funding_cross="0.25")
assert compute_bias(ctx, cfg) == "bull_put"
def test_bias_both_bear_returns_bear_call(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
# -6% trend, -25% funding
ctx = _trend(eth_now="2820", eth_30d_ago="3000", funding_cross="-0.25")
assert compute_bias(ctx, cfg) == "bear_call"
def test_bias_discordant_returns_none(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
# bull trend, bear funding
ctx = _trend(eth_now="3180", eth_30d_ago="3000", funding_cross="-0.25")
assert compute_bias(ctx, cfg) is None
def test_bias_neutral_with_high_dvol_low_adx_returns_iron_condor(
cfg: StrategyConfig,
) -> None:
# 0% trend, 0% funding, dvol 60, adx 15 → IC
ctx = _trend(
eth_now="3000", eth_30d_ago="3000", funding_cross="0", dvol="60", adx="15"
)
assert compute_bias(ctx, cfg) == "iron_condor"
def test_bias_neutral_with_low_dvol_returns_none(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
ctx = _trend(
eth_now="3000", eth_30d_ago="3000", funding_cross="0", dvol="50", adx="15"
)
assert compute_bias(ctx, cfg) is None
def test_bias_neutral_with_high_adx_returns_none(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
ctx = _trend(
eth_now="3000", eth_30d_ago="3000", funding_cross="0", dvol="60", adx="22"
)
assert compute_bias(ctx, cfg) is None
def test_bias_one_neutral_one_bull_returns_none(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
# +6% trend, +10% funding (neutral)
ctx = _trend(eth_now="3180", eth_30d_ago="3000", funding_cross="0.10")
assert compute_bias(ctx, cfg) is None
def test_bias_at_bull_threshold_is_bull_put(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
# exactly +5% trend, exactly +20% funding
ctx = _trend(eth_now="3150", eth_30d_ago="3000", funding_cross="0.20")
assert compute_bias(ctx, cfg) == "bull_put"
def test_bias_at_bear_threshold_is_bear_call(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
ctx = _trend(eth_now="2850", eth_30d_ago="3000", funding_cross="-0.20")
assert compute_bias(ctx, cfg) == "bear_call"
def test_bias_zero_division_safe(cfg: StrategyConfig) -> None:
# eth_30d_ago == 0 must not crash; treat as no-bias (neutral)
ctx = _trend(eth_now="3000", eth_30d_ago="0", funding_cross="0", dvol="60", adx="15")
assert compute_bias(ctx, cfg) is None
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# IV-RV adaptive gate
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def _adaptive_cfg(**entry_overrides: object) -> StrategyConfig:
"""Golden config con gate adattivo abilitato di default per test."""
base_entry: dict[str, object] = {
"iv_minus_rv_filter_enabled": True,
"iv_minus_rv_adaptive_enabled": True,
"iv_minus_rv_min": Decimal("0"),
"iv_minus_rv_percentile": Decimal("0.25"),
"iv_minus_rv_window_target_days": 60,
"iv_minus_rv_window_min_days": 30,
}
base_entry.update(entry_overrides)
return golden_config(entry=base_entry)
def test_adaptive_pass_when_iv_rv_above_p25() -> None:
cfg = _adaptive_cfg()
history = tuple(Decimal(i) for i in range(1, 201))
decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(
iv_minus_rv=Decimal("80"),
iv_rv_history=history,
iv_rv_n_days=30,
),
cfg,
)
assert decision.accepted is True
assert not any("IV richness" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_adaptive_blocks_when_iv_rv_below_p25() -> None:
cfg = _adaptive_cfg()
history = tuple(Decimal(i) for i in range(1, 201))
decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(
iv_minus_rv=Decimal("20"),
iv_rv_history=history,
iv_rv_n_days=30,
),
cfg,
)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert any("IV richness" in r and "rolling" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_adaptive_with_n_days_zero_passes_warmup() -> None:
"""Warmup hard: nessun giorno coperto → gate skip (fail-open)."""
cfg = _adaptive_cfg()
decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(
iv_minus_rv=Decimal("0.1"),
iv_rv_history=(),
iv_rv_n_days=0,
),
cfg,
)
assert decision.accepted is True
def test_adaptive_with_floor_floor_binds_when_p25_low() -> None:
cfg = _adaptive_cfg(iv_minus_rv_min=Decimal("3"))
history = tuple(Decimal("0.5") for _ in range(200))
decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(
iv_minus_rv=Decimal("1"),
iv_rv_history=history,
iv_rv_n_days=30,
),
cfg,
)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert any("IV richness" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_legacy_static_gate_still_works_when_adaptive_disabled() -> None:
cfg = golden_config(entry={
"iv_minus_rv_filter_enabled": True,
"iv_minus_rv_adaptive_enabled": False,
"iv_minus_rv_min": Decimal("3"),
})
decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(iv_minus_rv=Decimal("2"), iv_rv_history=(), iv_rv_n_days=0),
cfg,
)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert any("IV richness below floor" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_iv_minus_rv_none_skips_gate_in_both_modes() -> None:
cfg = _adaptive_cfg()
decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(
iv_minus_rv=None,
iv_rv_history=tuple(Decimal(i) for i in range(1, 201)),
iv_rv_n_days=30,
),
cfg,
)
assert decision.accepted is True
def test_adaptive_with_n_days_one_uses_history_for_percentile() -> None:
"""Singolo giorno disponibile (cadenza qualunque): gate attivo,
soglia = P25 della finestra ricevuta. Dimostra che il warmup hard
finisce a n_days=1 (non 30 come nella vecchia implementazione)."""
cfg = _adaptive_cfg()
history = tuple(Decimal(i) for i in range(1, 101)) # 1..100, P25 = 25.75
# IV-RV sopra P25 → pass
pass_decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(
iv_minus_rv=Decimal("30"),
iv_rv_history=history,
iv_rv_n_days=1,
),
cfg,
)
assert pass_decision.accepted is True
# IV-RV sotto P25 → block
block_decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(
iv_minus_rv=Decimal("10"),
iv_rv_history=history,
iv_rv_n_days=1,
),
cfg,
)
assert block_decision.accepted is False
assert any("IV richness" in r and "rolling" in r for r in block_decision.reasons)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Vol-of-Vol guard
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def _vov_cfg(threshold: Decimal = Decimal("5")) -> StrategyConfig:
return golden_config(entry={
"vol_of_vol_guard_enabled": True,
"vol_of_vol_threshold_pt": threshold,
"vol_of_vol_lookback_hours": 24,
})
def test_vov_guard_blocks_on_large_dvol_shift() -> None:
cfg = _vov_cfg()
decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(dvol_now=Decimal("56"), dvol_24h_ago=Decimal("50")), cfg
)
assert decision.accepted is False
assert any("DVOL shifted" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_vov_guard_passes_on_small_dvol_shift() -> None:
cfg = _vov_cfg()
decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(dvol_now=Decimal("52"), dvol_24h_ago=Decimal("50")), cfg
)
assert decision.accepted is True
def test_vov_guard_passes_when_lookback_missing() -> None:
"""fail-open su gap dati: se dvol_24h_ago=None il guard non scatta."""
cfg = _vov_cfg()
decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(dvol_now=Decimal("99"), dvol_24h_ago=None), cfg
)
# dvol_now=99 sarebbe oltre dvol_max=90; testiamo solo l'effetto VoV
# consultando le reasons (dvol_now potrebbe avere altre reason ma non
# quella VoV).
assert not any("DVOL shifted" in r for r in decision.reasons)
def test_vov_guard_disabled_does_nothing() -> None:
cfg = golden_config(entry={"vol_of_vol_guard_enabled": False})
decision = validate_entry(
_good_ctx(dvol_now=Decimal("55"), dvol_24h_ago=Decimal("50")), cfg
)
# Nessuna reason VoV (il delta=5 sarebbe oltre soglia se attivo)
assert not any("DVOL shifted" in r for r in decision.reasons)