feat(paper): ETH a tick 5m + tooling per-year/per-tick analysis

scripts/run_paper_trading.py: AssetConfig ETH ora usa timeframe="5m" invece
del default 1h. Il winner c04dff7086 e' stato trovato dal GA su dati 5m
e a 1h la strategia perde:
- ETH @ 5m (native): +359.50% cum 7y, 77% winrate, max DD/yr 19%
- ETH @ 1h (precedente): -33.03% cum 7y, 67% winrate, max DD 74%
BTC resta a 1h (winner 238e4812 native a 1h, +104% 7y, Sharpe 2+ in 3 anni).

Nuovi script di analisi:
- scripts/yearly_strategies.py: breakdown per anno (2019-2025) di 4
  strategie su tick di discovery (trade/winrate/return/maxDD/Sharpe).
- scripts/multi_tick_strategies.py: confronto cross-tick (5m/15m/1h)
  per i 2 winner correnti. Documenta la divergenza tick-paper di ETH.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

README.md

@@ -111,7 +111,7 @@ Stack: Python 3.13, uv workspace, hatchling, pytest+pytest-mock+responses, opena
 ```bash
 uv sync                           # installa entrambi i workspace member come editable
 cp .env.example .env              # compila CERBERO_*_TOKEN e OPENROUTER_API_KEY
-uv run pytest                     # 250 test attesi (246 core + 4 smoke strategy_crypto)
+uv run pytest                     # 252 test attesi (248 core + 4 smoke strategy_crypto)
 ```
 
 ### Variabili .env richieste
@@ -151,15 +151,16 @@ uv run mypy src/ scripts/
 uv run python scripts/smoke_run.py
 
 # Run reale Phase 1/2 (Cerbero + OpenRouter, ~$0.15-0.25 per run K=20 10gen,
-# ~$0.40-0.55 per run esteso K=40 20gen con WFA OOS)
+# ~$0.40-0.55 per run esteso K=40 20gen con WFA OOS).
+# Default --start ora 2018-09-01 (7.3y, copre bear+halving+covid+ATH+winter+ETF).
 uv run python scripts/run_phase1.py \
   --name run-XXX \
   --exchange deribit --symbol BTC-PERPETUAL --timeframe 1h \
-  --start 2024-01-01T00:00:00+00:00 \
-  --end 2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00 \
   --population-size 20 --n-generations 10 \
   --prompt-mutation-weight 0.30 --fitness-v2 \
   --llm-concurrency 8                          # 5-8x speedup wall time (default 1)
+# fitness-v2 hardened: hard-kill su {no_trades, degenerate, undertrading,
+# fees_eat_alpha, negative_net_pnl}. Override via --fitness-hard-kill CSV.
 # Default --prompt-library: importlib.resources del package strategy_crypto/prompts.json
 
 # Multi-fold validation di un run esistente (anti-overfit, 7y expanding-window)

scripts/analyze_btc_winners.py

@@ -0,0 +1,125 @@
+"""Analisi per-trade dei top-K candidate del run BTC.
+
+Per ciascun genome top-K, ri-esegue il backtest su ogni fold WFA e raccoglie:
+- n_trades, n_wins, n_losses, win_rate
+- max_drawdown
+- return, sharpe
+- list trade pnl summary
+
+Output stampato a stdout, non scrive su disco.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+from datetime import datetime
+
+import pandas as pd  # type: ignore[import-untyped]
+
+from multi_swarm_core.agents.hypothesis import _try_parse
+from multi_swarm_core.backtest.engine import BacktestEngine
+from multi_swarm_core.cerbero.client import CerberoClient
+from multi_swarm_core.config import load_settings
+from multi_swarm_core.data.cerbero_ohlcv import CerberoOHLCVLoader, OHLCVRequest
+from multi_swarm_core.data.splits import expanding_walk_forward
+from multi_swarm_core.metrics.basic import max_drawdown, sharpe_ratio, total_return
+from multi_swarm_core.persistence.repository import Repository
+from multi_swarm_core.protocol.compiler import compile_strategy
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    ap.add_argument("--run-id", required=True)
+    ap.add_argument("--top-k", type=int, default=10)
+    ap.add_argument("--n-folds", type=int, default=4)
+    ap.add_argument("--train-ratio", type=float, default=0.5)
+    ap.add_argument("--symbol", default="BTC-PERPETUAL")
+    ap.add_argument("--timeframe", default="1h")
+    ap.add_argument("--start", default="2018-09-01T00:00:00+00:00")
+    ap.add_argument("--end", default="2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00")
+    ap.add_argument("--fees-bp", type=float, default=5.0)
+    args = ap.parse_args()
+
+    settings = load_settings()
+    repo = Repository(settings.ga_db_path)
+    repo.init_schema()
+    all_evals = repo.list_evaluations(args.run_id)
+    parseable = [
+        e for e in all_evals
+        if e.get("raw_text") and not e.get("parse_error") and e["fitness"] > 0
+    ]
+    parseable.sort(key=lambda e: e["fitness"], reverse=True)
+    seen: set[str] = set()
+    top: list[dict] = []
+    for e in parseable:
+        if e["genome_id"] in seen:
+            continue
+        seen.add(e["genome_id"])
+        top.append(e)
+        if len(top) >= args.top_k:
+            break
+
+    token = (
+        settings.cerbero_mainnet_token.get_secret_value()
+        if settings.cerbero_mainnet_token
+        else settings.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value()
+    )
+    cerbero = CerberoClient(
+        base_url=settings.cerbero_base_url,
+        token=token,
+        bot_tag=settings.cerbero_bot_tag,
+    )
+    loader = CerberoOHLCVLoader(client=cerbero, cache_dir=settings.series_dir)
+    ohlcv = loader.load(OHLCVRequest(
+        symbol=args.symbol,
+        timeframe=args.timeframe,
+        start=datetime.fromisoformat(args.start),
+        end=datetime.fromisoformat(args.end),
+    ))
+    splits = expanding_walk_forward(ohlcv.index, train_ratio=args.train_ratio, n_folds=args.n_folds)
+    engine = BacktestEngine(fees_bp=args.fees_bp)
+
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 110}")
+    print(f"PER-TRADE ANALYSIS — top-{len(top)} genomes × {len(splits)} folds")
+    print(f"{'=' * 110}")
+
+    for ev in top:
+        strat, err = _try_parse(ev["raw_text"] or "")
+        if strat is None:
+            print(f"\n>>> {ev['genome_id'][:16]} — parse error: {err}")
+            continue
+
+        print(f"\n>>> {ev['genome_id']} (fit_IS={ev['fitness']:.4f}, sharpe_IS={ev['sharpe']:.3f})")
+        print(f"{'fold':<5} {'period':<26} {'trades':>7} {'wins':>5} {'losses':>7} {'win%':>6} {'avg_w':>9} {'avg_l':>9} {'ret':>7} {'maxDD':>7} {'sharpe':>7}")
+        for s in splits:
+            test_df = ohlcv.loc[s.test_idx]
+            try:
+                signal_fn = compile_strategy(strat)
+                signals = signal_fn(test_df)
+                bt = engine.run(test_df, signals)
+            except Exception as e:
+                print(f"  fold {s.fold}: error {e}")
+                continue
+            trades = bt.trades
+            n_trades = len(trades)
+            wins = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl > 0]
+            losses = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl <= 0]
+            n_wins = len(wins)
+            n_losses = len(losses)
+            win_rate = (n_wins / n_trades * 100) if n_trades else 0.0
+            avg_w = (sum(wins) / n_wins) if n_wins else 0.0
+            avg_l = (sum(losses) / n_losses) if n_losses else 0.0
+            # Normalize equity for DD/return
+            if n_trades > 0:
+                notional = float(test_df["close"].iloc[0])
+                equity_pos = (bt.equity_curve / notional) + 1.0
+                ret_pct = total_return(equity_pos)
+                dd = max_drawdown(equity_pos)
+                sr = sharpe_ratio(bt.returns, periods_per_year=8760)
+            else:
+                ret_pct = dd = sr = 0.0
+            period = f"{str(s.test_idx[0])[:10]}..{str(s.test_idx[-1])[:10]}"
+            print(f"{s.fold:<5} {period:<26} {n_trades:>7} {n_wins:>5} {n_losses:>7} {win_rate:>5.1f}% {avg_w:>9.1f} {avg_l:>9.1f} {ret_pct:>6.2%} {dd:>6.2%} {sr:>7.3f}")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

scripts/compare_winners.py

@@ -0,0 +1,139 @@
+"""Confronto per-trade dei 4 winner cross-run (BTC/ETH × 1h/5m).
+
+Per ogni winner: ri-esegue il backtest su 4 fold WFA expanding-window e raccoglie
+trade buoni/non buoni, win-rate, avg PnL, return, max DD, Sharpe.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+from datetime import datetime
+
+import pandas as pd  # type: ignore[import-untyped]
+
+from multi_swarm_core.agents.hypothesis import _try_parse
+from multi_swarm_core.backtest.engine import BacktestEngine
+from multi_swarm_core.cerbero.client import CerberoClient
+from multi_swarm_core.config import load_settings
+from multi_swarm_core.data.cerbero_ohlcv import CerberoOHLCVLoader, OHLCVRequest
+from multi_swarm_core.data.splits import expanding_walk_forward
+from multi_swarm_core.metrics.basic import max_drawdown, sharpe_ratio, total_return
+from multi_swarm_core.persistence.repository import Repository
+from multi_swarm_core.protocol.compiler import compile_strategy
+
+
+# (run_name, genome_id, symbol, timeframe, label)
+WINNERS = [
+    ("phase1-btc-100-001", "238e481262c1594c", "BTC-PERPETUAL", "1h", "BTC 1h sharpshooter (Gen 7)"),
+    ("phase1-btc-100-001", "23a24989e2ed0f84", "BTC-PERPETUAL", "1h", "BTC 1h robust (Gen 0 elite)"),
+    ("phase1-eth-100-001", "4b45a72c13acf1d5", "ETH-PERPETUAL", "1h", "ETH 1h best-by-sharpe (killed)"),
+    ("phase1-btc-100-5m-001", "f8ca6642adf7e0cd", "BTC-PERPETUAL", "5m", "BTC 5m robust winner"),
+    ("phase1-eth-100-5m-001", "c04dff7086bb9588", "ETH-PERPETUAL", "5m", "ETH 5m OOS winner"),
+]
+
+
+def analyze_genome(run_id: str, genome_id: str, symbol: str, timeframe: str, label: str,
+                   settings, cerbero, loader) -> None:
+    repo = Repository(settings.ga_db_path)
+    repo.init_schema()
+    evs = [e for e in repo.list_evaluations(run_id) if e["genome_id"] == genome_id]
+    if not evs:
+        print(f"  no eval for {genome_id} in {run_id}")
+        return
+    ev = evs[0]
+    strat, err = _try_parse(ev.get("raw_text") or "")
+    if strat is None:
+        print(f"  parse error: {err}")
+        return
+
+    req = OHLCVRequest(
+        symbol=symbol, timeframe=timeframe,
+        start=datetime.fromisoformat("2018-09-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+        end=datetime.fromisoformat("2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+    )
+    ohlcv = loader.load(req)
+    splits = expanding_walk_forward(ohlcv.index, train_ratio=0.5, n_folds=4)
+    engine = BacktestEngine(fees_bp=5.0)
+
+    print(f"\n>>> {label}")
+    print(f"    {genome_id} | fit_IS={ev['fitness']:.4f} sharpe_IS={ev['sharpe']:.3f} trades_IS={ev['n_trades']}")
+    print(f"    {'fold':<5} {'period':<26} {'trades':>7} {'wins':>5} {'losses':>7} {'win%':>6} {'avg_w':>10} {'avg_l':>10} {'ret':>8} {'maxDD':>7} {'sharpe':>7}")
+
+    sum_ret = 0.0
+    sum_trades = 0
+    sum_wins = 0
+    for s in splits:
+        test_df = ohlcv.loc[s.test_idx]
+        try:
+            signal_fn = compile_strategy(strat)
+            signals = signal_fn(test_df)
+            bt = engine.run(test_df, signals)
+        except Exception as e:
+            print(f"  fold {s.fold}: error {e}")
+            continue
+
+        trades = bt.trades
+        n = len(trades)
+        wins = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl > 0]
+        losses = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl <= 0]
+        nw, nl = len(wins), len(losses)
+        wr = (nw / n * 100) if n else 0.0
+        aw = (sum(wins) / nw) if nw else 0.0
+        al = (sum(losses) / nl) if nl else 0.0
+        if n > 0:
+            notional = float(test_df["close"].iloc[0])
+            eq = (bt.equity_curve / notional) + 1.0
+            ret = total_return(eq)
+            dd = max_drawdown(eq)
+            sr = sharpe_ratio(bt.returns, periods_per_year=8760)
+        else:
+            ret = dd = sr = 0.0
+        period = f"{str(s.test_idx[0])[:10]}..{str(s.test_idx[-1])[:10]}"
+        print(f"    {s.fold:<5} {period:<26} {n:>7} {nw:>5} {nl:>7} {wr:>5.1f}% {aw:>10.1f} {al:>10.1f} {ret:>7.2%} {dd:>6.2%} {sr:>7.3f}")
+        sum_ret += ret
+        sum_trades += n
+        sum_wins += nw
+    overall_wr = (sum_wins / sum_trades * 100) if sum_trades else 0.0
+    print(f"    {'='*5} TOTALS:                {sum_trades:>7} {sum_wins:>5} {sum_trades-sum_wins:>7} {overall_wr:>5.1f}%  cum_ret={sum_ret:+.2%}")
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    settings = load_settings()
+    repo = Repository(settings.ga_db_path)
+    repo.init_schema()
+    name_to_id: dict[str, str] = {}
+    for w in WINNERS:
+        run_name = w[0]
+        if run_name in name_to_id:
+            continue
+        runs = repo.list_runs()
+        for r in runs:
+            if r["name"] == run_name:
+                name_to_id[run_name] = r["id"]
+                break
+
+    token = (
+        settings.cerbero_mainnet_token.get_secret_value()
+        if settings.cerbero_mainnet_token
+        else settings.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value()
+    )
+    cerbero = CerberoClient(
+        base_url=settings.cerbero_base_url,
+        token=token,
+        bot_tag=settings.cerbero_bot_tag,
+    )
+    loader = CerberoOHLCVLoader(client=cerbero, cache_dir=settings.series_dir)
+
+    print(f"{'='*120}")
+    print(f"PER-TRADE COMPARISON — {len(WINNERS)} winner candidates × 4 folds WFA")
+    print(f"{'='*120}")
+
+    for run_name, genome_id, symbol, timeframe, label in WINNERS:
+        run_id = name_to_id.get(run_name)
+        if not run_id:
+            print(f"!!! run not found: {run_name}")
+            continue
+        analyze_genome(run_id, genome_id, symbol, timeframe, label, settings, cerbero, loader)
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

scripts/multi_tick_strategies.py

@@ -0,0 +1,112 @@
+"""2 winner cross-tick: BTC 238e4812 + ETH c04dff7086 su 5m / 15m / 1h.
+
+Per ogni combinazione strategy × timeframe: backtest year-by-year (2019-2025)
+con metriche per-anno e totale 7y.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from datetime import datetime
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from multi_swarm_core.backtest.engine import BacktestEngine
+from multi_swarm_core.cerbero.client import CerberoClient
+from multi_swarm_core.config import load_settings
+from multi_swarm_core.data.cerbero_ohlcv import CerberoOHLCVLoader, OHLCVRequest
+from multi_swarm_core.metrics.basic import max_drawdown, sharpe_ratio, total_return
+from multi_swarm_core.protocol.compiler import compile_strategy
+from multi_swarm_core.protocol.parser import parse_strategy
+
+
+WINNERS = [
+    # (label, path, symbol)
+    ("BTC NEW (238e4812, native=1h)", "btc_238e4812.json", "BTC-PERPETUAL"),
+    ("ETH NEW (c04dff7086, native=5m)", "eth_c04dff7086.json", "ETH-PERPETUAL"),
+]
+TIMEFRAMES = ["5m", "15m", "1h"]
+
+YEARS = [
+    ("2019", "2019-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2020-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+    ("2020", "2020-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2021-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+    ("2021", "2021-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2022-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+    ("2022", "2022-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2023-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+    ("2023", "2023-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2024-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+    ("2024", "2024-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2025-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+    ("2025", "2025-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+]
+
+
+def evaluate(strat, ohlcv, engine, label, tf) -> None:
+    print(f"\n  >>> tick={tf} | {len(ohlcv)} bars")
+    print(f"  {'year':<6} {'trades':>7} {'wins':>5} {'losses':>7} {'win%':>6} {'ret':>8} {'maxDD':>7} {'sharpe':>7}")
+    sum_ret = 0.0
+    sum_trades = 0
+    sum_wins = 0
+    for year_label, start, end in YEARS:
+        mask = (ohlcv.index >= datetime.fromisoformat(start)) & (ohlcv.index < datetime.fromisoformat(end))
+        slice_df = ohlcv[mask]
+        if len(slice_df) == 0:
+            continue
+        try:
+            signal_fn = compile_strategy(strat)
+            signals = signal_fn(slice_df)
+            bt = engine.run(slice_df, signals)
+        except Exception as e:
+            print(f"  {year_label:<6} ERROR: {e}")
+            continue
+        trades = bt.trades
+        n = len(trades)
+        wins = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl > 0]
+        losses = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl <= 0]
+        nw, nl = len(wins), len(losses)
+        wr = (nw / n * 100) if n else 0.0
+        if n > 0:
+            notional = float(slice_df["close"].iloc[0])
+            eq = (bt.equity_curve / notional) + 1.0
+            ret = total_return(eq)
+            dd = max_drawdown(eq)
+            sr = sharpe_ratio(bt.returns, periods_per_year=8760)
+        else:
+            ret = dd = sr = 0.0
+        print(f"  {year_label:<6} {n:>7} {nw:>5} {nl:>7} {wr:>5.1f}% {ret:>7.2%} {dd:>6.2%} {sr:>7.3f}")
+        sum_ret += ret
+        sum_trades += n
+        sum_wins += nw
+    overall_wr = (sum_wins / sum_trades * 100) if sum_trades else 0.0
+    print(f"  ===== 7y TOT: {sum_trades:>7} {sum_wins:>5} {sum_trades-sum_wins:>7} {overall_wr:>5.1f}%  cum_ret={sum_ret:+.2%}")
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    settings = load_settings()
+    token = (
+        settings.cerbero_mainnet_token.get_secret_value()
+        if settings.cerbero_mainnet_token
+        else settings.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value()
+    )
+    cerbero = CerberoClient(
+        base_url=settings.cerbero_base_url,
+        token=token,
+        bot_tag=settings.cerbero_bot_tag,
+    )
+    loader = CerberoOHLCVLoader(client=cerbero, cache_dir=settings.series_dir)
+    engine = BacktestEngine(fees_bp=5.0)
+    strategies_dir = Path("/app/strategies")
+
+    for label, fname, symbol in WINNERS:
+        path = strategies_dir / fname
+        strat = parse_strategy(path.read_text())
+        print(f"\n{'='*100}")
+        print(f">>> {label} — symbol={symbol}")
+        for tf in TIMEFRAMES:
+            try:
+                ohlcv = loader.load(OHLCVRequest(
+                    symbol=symbol, timeframe=tf,
+                    start=datetime.fromisoformat("2018-09-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+                    end=datetime.fromisoformat("2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+                ))
+                evaluate(strat, ohlcv, engine, label, tf)
+            except Exception as e:
+                print(f"\n  >>> tick={tf} FAILED TO LOAD: {e}")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

scripts/run_paper_trading.py

@@ -70,9 +70,11 @@ def load_assets(strategies_dir: Path) -> list[AssetConfig]:
         raise FileNotFoundError(
             f"Expected btc_*.json and eth_*.json in {strategies_dir}"
         )
+    # ETH winner c04dff7086 e' tunato su 5m: a 1h la strategia perde (cum_ret -33% 7y).
+    # BTC winner 238e4812 e' tunato su 1h: tick native = paper tick.
     return [
-        AssetConfig(symbol="BTC-PERPETUAL", strategy_file=btc_files[0]),
-        AssetConfig(symbol="ETH-PERPETUAL", strategy_file=eth_files[0]),
+        AssetConfig(symbol="BTC-PERPETUAL", strategy_file=btc_files[0], timeframe="1h"),
+        AssetConfig(symbol="ETH-PERPETUAL", strategy_file=eth_files[0], timeframe="5m"),
     ]
 
 

scripts/run_phase1.py

@@ -19,6 +19,30 @@ def _default_prompt_library_path() -> Path:
     return Path(str(importlib.resources.files("strategy_crypto") / "prompts.json"))
 
 
+# Default v2 hard-kill list: oltre ai degenerate originali, fees_eat_alpha e
+# negative_net_pnl sono deal-breaker non recuperabili via soft penalty (vedi
+# 7y-overfit incident 2026-05-16: elite IS Sharpe 1.93 -> net -5% su 7y per fees).
+_DEFAULT_V2_HARD_KILL: tuple[str, ...] = (
+    "no_trades",
+    "degenerate",
+    "undertrading",
+    "fees_eat_alpha",
+    "negative_net_pnl",
+)
+
+
+def _resolve_hard_kill(args) -> tuple[str, ...] | None:
+    """Resolve la lista hard-kill da CLI args.
+
+    Priority: ``--fitness-hard-kill`` esplicito > default v2 > ``None`` (v1).
+    """
+    if args.fitness_hard_kill:
+        return tuple(s.strip() for s in args.fitness_hard_kill.split(",") if s.strip())
+    if args.fitness_v2:
+        return _DEFAULT_V2_HARD_KILL
+    return None
+
+
 def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
     p = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Multi-Swarm Phase 1 runner")
     p.add_argument("--name", default="phase1-spike-001")
@@ -35,7 +59,10 @@ def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
     )
     p.add_argument("--symbol", default="BTC-PERPETUAL")
     p.add_argument("--timeframe", default="1h")
-    p.add_argument("--start", default="2024-01-01T00:00:00+00:00")
+    # Default esteso a 7.3 anni: copre bear 2018-19, halving 2020, COVID,
+    # ATH 2021, winter 2022, ETF rally 2024, regime corrente. Una finestra
+    # corta lascia il GA libero di overfit a un singolo regime.
+    p.add_argument("--start", default="2018-09-01T00:00:00+00:00")
     p.add_argument("--end", default="2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00")
     p.add_argument("--fees-bp", type=float, default=5.0)
     p.add_argument("--n-trials-dsr", type=int, default=50)
@@ -67,8 +94,10 @@ def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
         "--fitness-v2",
         action="store_true",
         help=(
-            "Attiva fitness v2: solo {no_trades, degenerate, undertrading} azzerano; "
-            "gli altri HIGH applicano soft penalty multiplicativa"
+            "Attiva fitness v2: hard-kill su {no_trades, degenerate, undertrading, "
+            "fees_eat_alpha, negative_net_pnl}; gli altri HIGH applicano soft penalty "
+            "multiplicativa. Versione hardened post 7y-overfit incident: fees + "
+            "net negativo non sono recuperabili."
         ),
     )
     p.add_argument(
@@ -77,6 +106,16 @@ def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
         default=0.4,
         help="v2: fattore soft penalty per HIGH non-hard (default 0.4 → 1 HIGH → 0.71x)",
     )
+    p.add_argument(
+        "--fitness-hard-kill",
+        type=str,
+        default=None,
+        help=(
+            "Override comma-separated della lista di finding name che azzerano la "
+            "fitness in modalita' v2. Es: 'no_trades,degenerate'. Default v2: "
+            "no_trades,degenerate,undertrading,fees_eat_alpha,negative_net_pnl."
+        ),
+    )
     p.add_argument(
         "--wfa-train-split",
         type=float,
@@ -188,9 +227,7 @@ def main() -> None:
         fees_eat_alpha_threshold=args.fees_eat_alpha_threshold,
         flat_too_long_threshold=args.flat_too_long_threshold,
         undertrading_threshold=args.undertrading_threshold,
-        fitness_hard_kill_findings=(
-            ("no_trades", "degenerate", "undertrading") if args.fitness_v2 else None
-        ),
+        fitness_hard_kill_findings=_resolve_hard_kill(args),
         fitness_adversarial_soft_penalty=args.fitness_soft_penalty,
         wfa_train_split=args.wfa_train_split,
         wfa_top_k=args.wfa_top_k,

scripts/yearly_strategies.py

@@ -0,0 +1,112 @@
+"""Per-year breakdown delle 4 strategie: 2 NEW (BTC 238e4812 + ETH c04dff7086)
++ 2 OLD freezate (btc_9cf506b8 hardened-001 + eth_facd6af85d5d).
+
+Backtest anno-per-anno (2019-2025) sul tick di discovery di ciascuna strategia.
+Output: trade, wins/losses, win%, return%, max DD%, Sharpe per ogni anno.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from datetime import datetime
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from multi_swarm_core.backtest.engine import BacktestEngine
+from multi_swarm_core.cerbero.client import CerberoClient
+from multi_swarm_core.config import load_settings
+from multi_swarm_core.data.cerbero_ohlcv import CerberoOHLCVLoader, OHLCVRequest
+from multi_swarm_core.metrics.basic import max_drawdown, sharpe_ratio, total_return
+from multi_swarm_core.protocol.compiler import compile_strategy
+from multi_swarm_core.protocol.parser import parse_strategy
+
+
+STRATEGIES = [
+    # (label, path, symbol, timeframe)
+    ("BTC NEW (238e4812, paper attuale)", "btc_238e4812.json", "BTC-PERPETUAL", "1h"),
+    ("BTC OLD (9cf506b8, hardened-001 prev paper)", "archive/btc_9cf506b8.json", "BTC-PERPETUAL", "1h"),
+    ("ETH NEW (c04dff7086, paper attuale)", "eth_c04dff7086.json", "ETH-PERPETUAL", "5m"),
+    ("ETH OLD (facd6af85d5d, prev paper)", "archive/eth_facd6af85d5d.json", "ETH-PERPETUAL", "1h"),
+]
+
+YEARS = [
+    ("2019", "2019-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2020-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+    ("2020", "2020-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2021-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+    ("2021", "2021-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2022-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+    ("2022", "2022-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2023-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+    ("2023", "2023-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2024-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+    ("2024", "2024-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2025-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+    ("2025", "2025-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+]
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    settings = load_settings()
+    token = (
+        settings.cerbero_mainnet_token.get_secret_value()
+        if settings.cerbero_mainnet_token
+        else settings.cerbero_testnet_token.get_secret_value()
+    )
+    cerbero = CerberoClient(
+        base_url=settings.cerbero_base_url,
+        token=token,
+        bot_tag=settings.cerbero_bot_tag,
+    )
+    loader = CerberoOHLCVLoader(client=cerbero, cache_dir=settings.series_dir)
+    engine = BacktestEngine(fees_bp=5.0)
+    strategies_dir = Path("/app/strategies")
+
+    for label, fname, symbol, timeframe in STRATEGIES:
+        path = strategies_dir / fname
+        strat = parse_strategy(path.read_text())
+
+        # Carica intero range una volta sola
+        ohlcv = loader.load(OHLCVRequest(
+            symbol=symbol, timeframe=timeframe,
+            start=datetime.fromisoformat("2018-09-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+            end=datetime.fromisoformat("2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00"),
+        ))
+
+        print(f"\n{'=' * 110}")
+        print(f">>> {label}")
+        print(f"    symbol={symbol} timeframe={timeframe} | {len(ohlcv)} bars total")
+        print(f"    {'year':<6} {'bars':>6} {'trades':>7} {'wins':>5} {'losses':>7} {'win%':>6} {'avg_w':>10} {'avg_l':>10} {'ret':>8} {'maxDD':>7} {'sharpe':>7}")
+
+        sum_ret = 0.0
+        sum_trades = 0
+        sum_wins = 0
+        for year_label, start, end in YEARS:
+            mask = (ohlcv.index >= datetime.fromisoformat(start)) & (ohlcv.index < datetime.fromisoformat(end))
+            slice_df = ohlcv[mask]
+            if len(slice_df) == 0:
+                continue
+            try:
+                signal_fn = compile_strategy(strat)
+                signals = signal_fn(slice_df)
+                bt = engine.run(slice_df, signals)
+            except Exception as e:
+                print(f"    {year_label:<6} ERROR: {e}")
+                continue
+            trades = bt.trades
+            n = len(trades)
+            wins = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl > 0]
+            losses = [t.net_pnl for t in trades if t.net_pnl <= 0]
+            nw, nl = len(wins), len(losses)
+            wr = (nw / n * 100) if n else 0.0
+            aw = (sum(wins) / nw) if nw else 0.0
+            al = (sum(losses) / nl) if nl else 0.0
+            if n > 0:
+                notional = float(slice_df["close"].iloc[0])
+                eq = (bt.equity_curve / notional) + 1.0
+                ret = total_return(eq)
+                dd = max_drawdown(eq)
+                sr = sharpe_ratio(bt.returns, periods_per_year=8760)
+            else:
+                ret = dd = sr = 0.0
+            print(f"    {year_label:<6} {len(slice_df):>6} {n:>7} {nw:>5} {nl:>7} {wr:>5.1f}% {aw:>10.1f} {al:>10.1f} {ret:>7.2%} {dd:>6.2%} {sr:>7.3f}")
+            sum_ret += ret
+            sum_trades += n
+            sum_wins += nw
+        overall_wr = (sum_wins / sum_trades * 100) if sum_trades else 0.0
+        print(f"    {'='*5} TOTALS 7y:                 {sum_trades:>7} {sum_wins:>5} {sum_trades-sum_wins:>7} {overall_wr:>5.1f}%                       cum_ret={sum_ret:+.2%}")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

src/multi_swarm_core/multi_swarm_core/agents/adversarial.py

@@ -172,10 +172,11 @@ class AdversarialAgent:
                 )
             )
 
-        # Fees-eat-alpha: gross_pnl > 0 ma fees > 50% del lordo.
+        # Fees-eat-alpha: gross_pnl > 0 ma fees > soglia del lordo.
         # La strategia ha edge teorico ma il margine viene mangiato dai
         # costi di transazione: non sostenibile in produzione.
-        # Se gross_pnl <= 0 il check non si applica (gia' perdente).
+        # Se gross_pnl <= 0 il check non si applica (la condizione e' coperta
+        # da ``negative_net_pnl`` sotto).
         gross_pnl = sum(t.gross_pnl for t in result.trades)
         total_fees = sum(t.fees for t in result.trades)
         if gross_pnl > 0 and total_fees / gross_pnl > self._fees_eat_alpha_threshold:
@@ -190,4 +191,22 @@ class AdversarialAgent:
                 )
             )
 
+        # Negative-net-pnl: somma di ``trade.net_pnl`` < 0 sul training.
+        # Cattura sia il caso "gross negativo" (no edge direzionale) sia il
+        # caso "gross positivo ma fees superiori a gross" (edge insufficiente).
+        # Sintesi del net-after-fees su finestra continua: deal-breaker, non
+        # negoziabile via soft penalty.
+        net_pnl = gross_pnl - total_fees
+        if net_pnl < 0:
+            report.findings.append(
+                Finding(
+                    name="negative_net_pnl",
+                    severity=Severity.HIGH,
+                    detail=(
+                        f"Net PnL ${net_pnl:.2f} < 0 after fees over {n_bars} bars; "
+                        f"gross ${gross_pnl:.2f}, fees ${total_fees:.2f}"
+                    ),
+                )
+            )
+
         return report

src/multi_swarm_core/multi_swarm_core/orchestrator/run.py

@@ -112,10 +112,16 @@ def run_phase1(
 
     repo = Repository(cfg.db_path)
     repo.init_schema()
+    # Escludi prompt_library (PromptLibrary dataclass non e' JSON-serializable);
+    # salva solo i nomi degli stili per reproducibility.
     config_dict = {
-        **cfg.__dict__,
+        **{k: v for k, v in cfg.__dict__.items() if k != "prompt_library"},
         "db_path": str(cfg.db_path),
         "model_tier": cfg.model_tier.value,
+        "prompt_library_styles": (
+            list(cfg.prompt_library.cognitive_styles)
+            if cfg.prompt_library is not None else None
+        ),
     }
     run_id = repo.create_run(name=cfg.run_name, config=config_dict)
 

src/multi_swarm_core/tests/integration/test_e2e_minimal_run.py

@@ -108,7 +108,13 @@ def test_e2e_wfa_populates_fitness_oos(
     fake_llm,
     mocker,
 ):
-    """WFA: train_split=0.7 → top genomi devono avere fitness_oos popolato."""
+    """WFA: train_split=0.7 → top genomi devono avere fitness_oos popolato.
+
+    Usa fitness v2 con hard-kill minimale (solo no_trades): il fixture sintetico
+    non produce strategie profittevoli, quindi i check aggressivi
+    fees_eat_alpha/negative_net_pnl azzererebbero tutti i genomi rendendo
+    inverificabile il wiring WFA.
+    """
     cfg = RunConfig(
         run_name="e2e-wfa-test",
         population_size=5,
@@ -125,6 +131,7 @@ def test_e2e_wfa_populates_fitness_oos(
         db_path=tmp_path / "runs.db",
         wfa_train_split=0.7,
         wfa_top_k=3,
+        fitness_hard_kill_findings=("no_trades",),
     )
     run_id = run_phase1(cfg, ohlcv=synthetic_ohlcv, llm=fake_llm)
     repo = Repository(db_path=tmp_path / "runs.db")

src/multi_swarm_core/tests/unit/test_adversarial.py

@@ -3,7 +3,6 @@ import json
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
 import pytest
-
 from multi_swarm_core.agents.adversarial import (
     AdversarialAgent,
     AdversarialReport,
@@ -54,7 +53,10 @@ def test_degenerate_always_long_flagged(ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
     assert any(f.name == "degenerate" and f.severity == Severity.HIGH for f in report.findings)
 
 
-def test_no_findings_on_reasonable_strategy(ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
+def test_rsi_mean_reversion_loses_money_on_synthetic_data(ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
+    """RSI mean-reversion sul fixture sintetico ha net negativo: deve firare
+    negative_net_pnl (deal-breaker). Conferma che il check cattura strategie
+    che perdono sul training, indipendentemente dal motivo (no edge / fees)."""
     src = json.dumps(
         {
             "rules": [
@@ -84,8 +86,59 @@ def test_no_findings_on_reasonable_strategy(ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
     ast = parse_strategy(src)
     agent = AdversarialAgent()
     report = agent.review(ast, ohlcv)
+    assert any(
+        f.name == "negative_net_pnl" and f.severity == Severity.HIGH
+        for f in report.findings
+    )
+
+
+def test_profitable_strategy_no_high_findings(
+    monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame
+) -> None:
+    """Sanity test: una strategia con gross > 0 e fees << gross + n_trades ragionevole
+    + signal misto non deve produrre nessun finding HIGH."""
+    n = 15
+    # entry=100 exit=110 gross=10 per trade, fees a 5bp -> 0.105 per trade
+    # totali: gross=150, fees=1.575 -> net=+148.4
+    fake_trades = [
+        _make_trade(
+            ohlcv.index[i * 30],
+            ohlcv.index[i * 30 + 1],
+            entry_price=100.0,
+            exit_price=110.0,
+        )
+        for i in range(n)
+    ]
+    # 50/50 LONG/FLAT per evitare degenerate/flat_too_long/time_in_market.
+    fake_signals = pd.Series(
+        [Side.LONG if i % 2 == 0 else Side.FLAT for i in range(len(ohlcv))],
+        index=ohlcv.index,
+        dtype=object,
+    )
+
+    def fake_run(self, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame, signals: pd.Series) -> BacktestResult:  # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
+        return BacktestResult(
+            equity_curve=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="equity"),
+            returns=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="returns"),
+            trades=fake_trades,
+        )
+
+    def fake_compile(strategy):  # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
+        return lambda df: fake_signals
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(
+        "multi_swarm_core.agents.adversarial.BacktestEngine.run", fake_run
+    )
+    monkeypatch.setattr(
+        "multi_swarm_core.agents.adversarial.compile_strategy", fake_compile
+    )
+
+    ast = parse_strategy(_MINIMAL_STRATEGY_SRC)
+    report = AdversarialAgent().review(ast, ohlcv)
     high_findings = [f for f in report.findings if f.severity == Severity.HIGH]
-    assert len(high_findings) == 0
+    assert high_findings == [], (
+        f"expected no HIGH findings, got: {[f.name for f in high_findings]}"
+    )
 
 
 def test_zero_trade_strategy_flagged(ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
@@ -383,6 +436,55 @@ def test_fees_eat_alpha_flagged(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch,
     )
 
 
+def test_negative_net_pnl_fires_on_negative_gross(
+    monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch, ohlcv: pd.DataFrame
+) -> None:
+    """gross_pnl < 0 (perdente direzionale) -> HIGH negative_net_pnl.
+    fees_eat_alpha NON deve firare perche' la sua condizione richiede gross > 0.
+    """
+    n = 15
+    # entry=100 exit=95 gross=-5 per trade (LONG perdente)
+    fake_trades = [
+        _make_trade(
+            ohlcv.index[i * 30],
+            ohlcv.index[i * 30 + 1],
+            entry_price=100.0,
+            exit_price=95.0,
+        )
+        for i in range(n)
+    ]
+    fake_signals = pd.Series(
+        [Side.LONG if i % 2 == 0 else Side.FLAT for i in range(len(ohlcv))],
+        index=ohlcv.index,
+        dtype=object,
+    )
+
+    def fake_run(self, ohlcv, signals):  # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
+        return BacktestResult(
+            equity_curve=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="equity"),
+            returns=pd.Series([0.0] * len(ohlcv), index=ohlcv.index, name="returns"),
+            trades=fake_trades,
+        )
+
+    def fake_compile(strategy):  # type: ignore[no-untyped-def]
+        return lambda df: fake_signals
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(
+        "multi_swarm_core.agents.adversarial.BacktestEngine.run", fake_run
+    )
+    monkeypatch.setattr(
+        "multi_swarm_core.agents.adversarial.compile_strategy", fake_compile
+    )
+
+    ast = parse_strategy(_MINIMAL_STRATEGY_SRC)
+    report = AdversarialAgent().review(ast, ohlcv)
+    assert any(
+        f.name == "negative_net_pnl" and f.severity == Severity.HIGH
+        for f in report.findings
+    )
+    assert not any(f.name == "fees_eat_alpha" for f in report.findings)
+
+
 def test_time_in_market_too_high_flagged(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch,
                                           ohlcv: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
     """Signal LONG per >80% delle bar -> HIGH time_in_market_too_high."""

src/strategy_crypto/strategy_crypto/strategies/archive/btc_9cf506b8.json

@@ -0,0 +1,140 @@
+{
+  "rules": [
+    {
+      "condition": {
+        "op": "and",
+        "args": [
+          {
+            "op": "gt",
+            "args": [
+              {
+                "kind": "indicator",
+                "name": "realized_vol",
+                "params": [150]
+              },
+              {
+                "kind": "literal",
+                "value": 0.01
+              }
+            ]
+          },
+          {
+            "op": "lt",
+            "args": [
+              {
+                "kind": "indicator",
+                "name": "atr_pct",
+                "params": [150]
+              },
+              {
+                "kind": "literal",
+                "value": 0.02
+              }
+            ]
+          },
+          {
+            "op": "gt",
+            "args": [
+              {
+                "kind": "indicator",
+                "name": "sma_pct",
+                "params": [150]
+              },
+              {
+                "kind": "literal",
+                "value": 0.05
+              }
+            ]
+          }
+        ]
+      },
+      "action": "entry-long"
+    },
+    {
+      "condition": {
+        "op": "and",
+        "args": [
+          {
+            "op": "lt",
+            "args": [
+              {
+                "kind": "indicator",
+                "name": "realized_vol",
+                "params": [150]
+              },
+              {
+                "kind": "literal",
+                "value": 0.005
+              }
+            ]
+          },
+          {
+            "op": "gt",
+            "args": [
+              {
+                "kind": "indicator",
+                "name": "atr_pct",
+                "params": [150]
+              },
+              {
+                "kind": "literal",
+                "value": 0.03
+              }
+            ]
+          },
+          {
+            "op": "lt",
+            "args": [
+              {
+                "kind": "indicator",
+                "name": "sma_pct",
+                "params": [150]
+              },
+              {
+                "kind": "literal",
+                "value": -0.05
+              }
+            ]
+          }
+        ]
+      },
+      "action": "entry-short"
+    },
+    {
+      "condition": {
+        "op": "or",
+        "args": [
+          {
+            "op": "eq",
+            "args": [
+              {
+                "kind": "indicator",
+                "name": "sma_pct",
+                "params": [150]
+              },
+              {
+                "kind": "literal",
+                "value": 0.0
+              }
+            ]
+          },
+          {
+            "op": "lt",
+            "args": [
+              {
+                "kind": "indicator",
+                "name": "realized_vol",
+                "params": [150]
+              },
+              {
+                "kind": "literal",
+                "value": 0.001
+              }
+            ]
+          }
+        ]
+      },
+      "action": "exit"
+    }
+  ]
+}

src/strategy_crypto/strategy_crypto/strategies/btc_238e4812.json

@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
+{
+  "rules": [
+    {
+      "condition": {
+        "op": "and",
+        "args": [
+          {
+            "op": "gt",
+            "args": [
+              {
+                "kind": "indicator",
+                "name": "realized_vol",
+                "params": [
+                  150
+                ]
+              },
+              {
+                "kind": "literal",
+                "value": 0.007
+              }
+            ]
+          },
+          {
+            "op": "lt",
+            "args": [
+              {
+                "kind": "indicator",
+                "name": "atr_pct",
+                "params": [
+                  150
+                ]
+              },
+              {
+                "kind": "literal",
+                "value": 0.0042
+              }
+            ]
+          }
+        ]
+      },
+      "action": "entry-long"
+    },
+    {
+      "condition": {
+        "op": "or",
+        "args": [
+          {
+            "op": "crossunder",
+            "args": [
+              {
+                "kind": "indicator",
+                "name": "rsi",
+                "params": [
+                  14
+                ]
+              },
+              {
+                "kind": "literal",
+                "value": 70.0
+              }
+            ]
+          },
+          {
+            "op": "gt",
+            "args": [
+              {
+                "kind": "indicator",
+                "name": "atr_pct",
+                "params": [
+                  150
+                ]
+              },
+              {
+                "kind": "literal",
+                "value": 0.007
+              }
+            ]
+          }
+        ]
+      },
+      "action": "exit"
+    }
+  ]
+}

src/strategy_crypto/strategy_crypto/strategies/eth_c04dff7086.json

@@ -0,0 +1,120 @@
+{
+  "rules": [
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state/validation-btc-100-001-thr3.json

@@ -0,0 +1,634 @@
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state/validation-btc-100-001.json

@@ -0,0 +1,634 @@
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state/validation-btc-100-5m-thr3.json

@@ -0,0 +1,634 @@
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state/validation-extended-001.json

@@ -0,0 +1,634 @@
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+}