PythagorasGoal/scripts/research/trackD_timing.py

"""TRACK D on DIFFERENT TIMEFRAMES — per-year PnL and per-year max drawdown.

Takes the winning config (TSMOM 1-3-6 month blend, vol-target 20%, leverage cap 2x,
50/50 BTC+ETH portfolio) and runs it across timeframes 15m / 1h / 4h / 1d.

Honesty preserved: same building blocks as trackD_trendport.py (positions shifted +1 bar,
fee 0.10% RT on turnover, vol-targeting on past-only realized vol). Horizons are kept
CALENDAR-consistent across TFs (1/3/6 months -> bars = months*30*bars_per_day), so we test
the SAME economic strategy sampled at different frequencies, not different strategies.

4h/1d are RESAMPLED from the certified 1h feed (00:00 UTC boundaries).

Run:  uv run python scripts/research/trackD_timing.py
"""
from __future__ import annotations

import sys
from pathlib import Path

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]))

from src.backtest.harness import load
from scripts.research.trackD_trendport import (
    simple_returns, realized_vol, sig_tsmom_blend, build_target,
    equity_from_target,
)

ASSETS = ["BTC", "ETH"]
FEE_SIDE = 0.0005                 # 0.05%/side = 0.10% RT
TARGET_VOL = 0.20
LEVERAGE = 2.0

# timeframe -> (load_tf, resample_rule_or_None, bars_per_day)
TIMEFRAMES = {
    "15m": ("15m", None, 96),
    "1h":  ("1h",  None, 24),
    "4h":  ("1h",  "4h", 6),
    "1d":  ("1h",  "1D", 1),
}


def resample_ohlc(df: pd.DataFrame, rule: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
    g = df.copy()
    idx = pd.to_datetime(g["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
    idx.name = "dt"
    g.index = idx
    out = g.resample(rule, label="left", closed="left").agg(
        {"open": "first", "high": "max", "low": "min", "close": "last", "volume": "sum"})
    out = out.dropna(subset=["open"])
    out["datetime"] = out.index
    epoch = pd.Timestamp("1970-01-01", tz="UTC")
    out["timestamp"] = ((out.index - epoch) // pd.Timedelta(milliseconds=1)).astype("int64")
    return out.reset_index(drop=True)[["timestamp", "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume", "datetime"]]


def get_df(tf_key: str, asset: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
    load_tf, rule, _ = TIMEFRAMES[tf_key]
    df = load(asset, load_tf)
    if rule:
        df = resample_ohlc(df, rule)
    return df


def run_asset(df, bars_per_day, target_vol=TARGET_VOL, leverage=LEVERAGE,
              long_only=False, fee_side=FEE_SIDE):
    c = df["close"].values.astype(float)
    r = simple_returns(c)
    bpy = bars_per_day * 365.25
    # recompute building blocks at this TF's bar frequency
    h1, h3, h6 = 30 * bars_per_day, 90 * bars_per_day, 180 * bars_per_day
    vol_win = 30 * bars_per_day
    # realized_vol / tsmom use BARS_PER_YEAR from trackD (1h) for annualization of vol;
    # we must annualize with THIS tf's bpy -> compute vol locally
    vol = pd.Series(r).rolling(vol_win, min_periods=vol_win // 2).std().values * np.sqrt(bpy)
    direction = sig_tsmom_blend(c, horizons=(h1, h3, h6))
    tgt = build_target(direction, vol, target_vol, leverage, long_only)
    equity, net = equity_from_target(tgt, r, fee_side)
    # discrete position SIGN for trade counting (entry = sign change to a new non-zero state)
    sign = np.sign(tgt)
    return dict(net=net, ts=df["datetime"], equity=equity, bpy=bpy, sign=sign, target=tgt)


def portfolio_series(sleeves):
    a = pd.Series(sleeves["BTC"]["net"], index=pd.to_datetime(sleeves["BTC"]["ts"].values))
    b = pd.Series(sleeves["ETH"]["net"], index=pd.to_datetime(sleeves["ETH"]["ts"].values))
    j = pd.concat([a.rename("a"), b.rename("b")], axis=1, join="inner").fillna(0.0)
    combo = 0.5 * j["a"].values + 0.5 * j["b"].values
    idx = pd.to_datetime(j.index)
    equity = np.cumprod(1.0 + np.clip(combo, -0.99, None))
    return idx, combo, equity


def overall_metrics(idx, combo, equity, bpy):
    rr = combo[np.isfinite(combo)]
    sharpe = float(np.mean(rr) / np.std(rr) * np.sqrt(bpy)) if np.std(rr) > 0 else 0.0
    peak = np.maximum.accumulate(equity)
    dd = float(np.max((peak - equity) / peak))
    span_days = (idx[-1] - idx[0]).total_seconds() / 86400
    years = span_days / 365.25
    total = equity[-1] / equity[0]
    cagr = total ** (1 / years) - 1 if years > 0 and total > 0 else -1.0
    daily_2k = (2000 * total - 2000) / span_days if span_days > 0 else 0.0
    return dict(sharpe=sharpe, max_dd=dd, cagr=cagr, total=total - 1, daily_2k=daily_2k)


def per_year(idx, equity):
    """Return {year: (pnl_pct, maxdd_pct)} where maxdd is the worst drawdown WITHIN the year."""
    eq = pd.Series(equity, index=idx)
    out = {}
    for y, g in eq.groupby(eq.index.year):
        if len(g) < 2:
            continue
        pnl = g.iloc[-1] / g.iloc[0] - 1.0
        v = g.values
        peak = np.maximum.accumulate(v)
        ddy = float(np.max((peak - v) / peak))
        out[int(y)] = (float(pnl), ddy)
    return out


def trades_per_year(sleeves):
    """Count entries per year, summed across both sleeves. An 'entry' = the position SIGN
    changing to a new non-zero value (flat->long, flat->short, or a direction flip)."""
    counts: dict[int, int] = {}
    for a in ASSETS:
        sign = sleeves[a]["sign"]
        ts = pd.to_datetime(sleeves[a]["ts"].values)
        for i in range(1, len(sign)):
            s, prev = sign[i], sign[i - 1]
            if s != 0 and s != prev:        # entry: from flat or opposite into a non-zero state
                counts[ts[i].year] = counts.get(ts[i].year, 0) + 1
    return counts


ALL_YEARS = list(range(2018, 2027))


def main():
    print("=" * 118)
    print("# TRACK D WINNER ACROSS TIMEFRAMES — TSMOM 1-3-6m blend, vol-target 20%, lev 2x, 50/50 BTC+ETH")
    print("# fee 0.10% RT on turnover, positions +1 bar (no look-ahead). 4h/1d resampled from certified 1h.")
    print("=" * 118)

    for mode_long_only, mode_name in ((False, "LONG-SHORT"), (True, "LONG-FLAT")):
        print("\n" + "#" * 118)
        print(f"#  MODE = {mode_name}")
        print("#" * 118)
        for tf_key in TIMEFRAMES:
            bpd = TIMEFRAMES[tf_key][2]
            sleeves = {a: run_asset(get_df(tf_key, a), bpd, long_only=mode_long_only)
                       for a in ASSETS}
            idx, combo, equity = portfolio_series(sleeves)
            ov = overall_metrics(idx, combo, equity, sleeves["BTC"]["bpy"])
            py = per_year(idx, equity)

            tpy = trades_per_year(sleeves)
            total_trades = sum(tpy.values())
            print(f"\n  ── TF {tf_key:<3s} │ ret {ov['total']*100:>+8.0f}%  CAGR {ov['cagr']*100:>+6.1f}%  "
                  f"Sharpe {ov['sharpe']:>4.2f}  maxDD {ov['max_dd']*100:>4.1f}%  "
                  f"€/day(2k) {ov['daily_2k']:>+6.2f}  trades {total_trades}")
            # per-year PnL / DD / trades rows
            print(f"     {'PnL %':<8s}" + "".join(
                ("    .  " if y not in py else f"{py[y][0]*100:>+7.0f}") for y in ALL_YEARS))
            print(f"     {'maxDD %':<8s}" + "".join(
                ("    .  " if y not in py else f"{py[y][1]*100:>7.1f}") for y in ALL_YEARS))
            print(f"     {'trades':<8s}" + "".join(
                ("    .  " if y not in py else f"{tpy.get(y,0):>7d}") for y in ALL_YEARS))
        # year header for reference
        print("\n     " + "year    ".ljust(8) + "".join(f"{y:>7d}" for y in ALL_YEARS))


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()