PythagorasGoal/scripts/strategies/SQ04_squeeze_ultimate.py

"""SQ04 — Ultimate Squeeze — combinazione incrementale di tutti i filtri.

Testa combinazioni di filtri (antifake, long_sq, timing, cross-asset,
correlation, volume, trend alignment, volatility regime) e classifica
per accuracy.

IN:
    - OHLCV DataFrame (primario + secondario)
    - Parametri: bb_window, sq_threshold, lista filtri da attivare

OUT:
    - BacktestResult per ogni combinazione di filtri
    - Classifica globale

Risultati tipici:
    BTC 15m antifake+corr: 81.6% acc (ma concentrato 2018)
    BTC 15m antifake+vol: 79.7% acc, 1250 trades — robusto
    ETH 1h antifake+corr: 80.7% acc (solo 2018)
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, ".")

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal
from src.strategies.indicators import (
    keltner_ratio, detect_squeezes, ema, rv_annualized, rolling_correlation,
)
from src.data.downloader import load_data


class SqueezeUltimate(Strategy):
    name = "SQ04_ultimate"
    description = "Ultimate squeeze — tutti i filtri combinabili"
    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]

    FILTER_PRESETS = {
        "antifake+vol": ["antifake", "vol_confirm"],
        "antifake+corr": ["antifake", "corr_high"],
        "af+long+corr+trend": ["antifake", "long_sq", "corr_high", "trend_align"],
        "ALL": ["antifake", "long_sq", "cross", "timing", "corr_high",
                "vol_confirm", "trend_align", "low_rv"],
    }

    def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
                         **params) -> list[Signal]:
        c = df["close"].values
        h = df["high"].values
        l = df["low"].values
        v = df["volume"].values
        n = len(c)

        asset = params.get("asset", "BTC")
        tf = params.get("tf", "15m")
        filters = params.get("filters", ["antifake", "vol_confirm"])

        kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, 14)
        events = detect_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr)

        secondary = "ETH" if asset == "BTC" else "BTC"
        df2 = load_data(secondary, tf)
        c2 = df2["close"].values
        kcr2 = keltner_ratio(c2, df2["high"].values, df2["low"].values, 14)
        ts2 = df2["timestamp"].values

        ema_50 = ema(c, 50)
        rv_48 = rv_annualized(c, 48)
        corr = rolling_correlation(c, c2)

        signals = []
        for ev in events:
            i = ev["idx"]
            if i < 1 or i >= n:
                continue
            first_ret = (c[i] - c[i - 1]) / c[i - 1] if c[i - 1] > 0 else 0
            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
                continue

            skip = False
            for f in filters:
                if f == "antifake":
                    br = h[i] - l[i]
                    if br > 0:
                        if c[i] > c[i-1] and (h[i] - c[i]) / br > 0.6:
                            skip = True
                        elif c[i] <= c[i-1] and (c[i] - l[i]) / br > 0.6:
                            skip = True
                elif f == "long_sq":
                    if ev["dur"] < 10:
                        skip = True
                elif f == "timing":
                    if ts.iloc[i].hour < 4 or ts.iloc[i].hour > 16:
                        skip = True
                elif f == "cross":
                    i2 = np.searchsorted(ts2, ts.values[i].astype("int64") // 10**6)
                    i2 = min(i2, len(kcr2) - 1)
                    if not any(not np.isnan(kcr2[j]) and kcr2[j] < 0.85
                               for j in range(max(0, i2 - 10), i2 + 1)):
                        skip = True
                elif f == "corr_high":
                    if np.isnan(corr[i]) or abs(corr[i]) < 0.6:
                        skip = True
                elif f == "vol_confirm":
                    avg_v = np.mean(v[ev["sq_start"]:i])
                    if avg_v > 0 and v[i] <= avg_v * 1.3:
                        skip = True
                elif f == "trend_align":
                    if not np.isnan(ema_50[i]):
                        if first_ret > 0 and c[i] < ema_50[i]:
                            skip = True
                        elif first_ret < 0 and c[i] > ema_50[i]:
                            skip = True
                elif f == "low_rv":
                    if not np.isnan(rv_48[i]) and rv_48[i] >= 1.5:
                        skip = True
                if skip:
                    break

            if skip:
                continue

            signals.append(Signal(
                idx=i,
                direction=1 if first_ret > 0 else -1,
                entry_price=c[i - 1],
                metadata={"dur": ev["dur"], "filters": filters},
            ))
        return signals

    def backtest(self, asset: str, tf: str, hold: int = 3, **params):
        params.setdefault("asset", asset)
        params.setdefault("tf", tf)
        df = load_data(asset, tf)
        ts = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms", utc=True)
        signals = self.generate_signals(df, ts, **params)
        # Usa il backtest della base ma passando i segnali già generati
        from src.strategies.base import BacktestResult, YearlyStats, TF_MINUTES
        c = df["close"].values
        n = len(c)
        yearly: dict[int, dict] = {}
        capital = float(self.initial_capital)
        peak = capital
        max_dd = 0.0
        total_bars = 0
        for sig in signals:
            i = sig.idx
            if i + hold >= n or i < 1:
                continue
            entry = sig.entry_price
            exit_price = c[min(i + hold - 1, n - 1)]
            actual = (exit_price - entry) / entry * sig.direction
            net = actual * self.leverage - self.fee_rt * self.leverage
            capital += capital * self.position_size * net
            capital = max(capital, 10)
            if capital > peak: peak = capital
            dd = (peak - capital) / peak
            max_dd = max(max_dd, dd)
            total_bars += hold
            year = ts.iloc[i].year
            if year not in yearly:
                yearly[year] = {"w": 0, "t": 0, "pnl": 0.0}
            yearly[year]["t"] += 1
            if actual > 0: yearly[year]["w"] += 1
            yearly[year]["pnl"] += net * self.initial_capital
        all_t = sum(d["t"] for d in yearly.values())
        all_w = sum(d["w"] for d in yearly.values())
        if all_t == 0: return None
        yearly_stats = [YearlyStats(y, d["t"], d["w"], d["pnl"]) for y, d in sorted(yearly.items())]
        return BacktestResult(
            strategy_name=self.name, asset=asset, timeframe=tf, params=params,
            trades=all_t, wins=all_w, pnl=sum(d["pnl"] for d in yearly.values()),
            capital=capital, initial_capital=self.initial_capital,
            max_dd=max_dd * 100, time_in_market_pct=total_bars / n * 100,
            avg_trade_duration_h=hold * TF_MINUTES.get(tf, 60) / 60,
            years_active=len(yearly), yearly=yearly_stats,
        )

    def report_all_presets(self):
        """Esegue tutte le combinazioni preset × asset × tf."""
        all_results = []
        for preset_name, filter_list in self.FILTER_PRESETS.items():
            for asset in self.default_assets:
                for tf in self.default_timeframes:
                    r = self.backtest(asset, tf, filters=filter_list)
                    if r and r.trades >= 20:
                        r.strategy_name = f"SQ04 {preset_name}"
                        all_results.append(r)

        all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)

        print(f"\n{'=' * 120}")
        print(f"  SQ04 ULTIMATE — TUTTI I PRESET")
        print(f"{'=' * 120}")
        for r in all_results:
            r.print_summary()
        return all_results


if __name__ == "__main__":
    strategy = SqueezeUltimate()
    strategy.report_all_presets()