PythagorasGoal/scripts/strategies/AD01_adaptive_squeeze.py

"""AD01 — Adaptive Squeeze Threshold.

Problema SQ02: sq_threshold fisso (0.8) non si adatta al regime di volatilità.
Soluzione: threshold adattivo basato su volatilità recente.

Logica:
  - Calcola volatilità rolling (std dei rendimenti su finestra 100 barre)
  - Confronta con percentile storico (rolling 500 barre)
  - Alta vol (>70° percentile) → soglia BASSA (0.65) — squeeze più "lenti"
  - Bassa vol (<30° percentile) → soglia ALTA (0.90) — squeeze "stretti"
  - Vol media → soglia standard (0.80)

Razionale: in mercati calmi, il BB si stringe molto → sq_threshold alto cattura
segnali migliori. In mercati volatili, bastano squeeze minori per essere significativi.

Anti-overfitting: solo 3 parametri (low_thr, mid_thr, high_thr), logica deterministica.
Eredita antifakeout + volume da SQ02.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, ".")

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

from src.strategies.base import Strategy, Signal, BacktestResult, YearlyStats, TF_MINUTES
from src.strategies.indicators import keltner_ratio, ema
from src.data.downloader import load_data


def _adaptive_sq_threshold(close: np.ndarray,
                            vol_window: int = 100,
                            regime_window: int = 500,
                            low_thr: float = 0.65,
                            mid_thr: float = 0.80,
                            high_thr: float = 0.90) -> np.ndarray:
    """Calcola sq_threshold adattivo per ogni barra."""
    n = len(close)
    lr = np.diff(np.log(np.where(close <= 0, 1e-10, close)))
    vol = np.full(n, np.nan)
    for i in range(vol_window, n):
        vol[i] = np.std(lr[i - vol_window:i])

    # Percentile rolling della volatilità
    thresh = np.full(n, mid_thr)
    for i in range(regime_window, n):
        if np.isnan(vol[i]):
            continue
        hist = vol[i - regime_window:i]
        hist = hist[~np.isnan(hist)]
        if len(hist) < 10:
            continue
        p30 = np.percentile(hist, 30)
        p70 = np.percentile(hist, 70)
        if vol[i] < p30:
            thresh[i] = high_thr   # vol bassa → soglia alta
        elif vol[i] > p70:
            thresh[i] = low_thr    # vol alta → soglia bassa
        else:
            thresh[i] = mid_thr
    return thresh


def _detect_adaptive_squeezes(close, high, low, kcr, adaptive_thr,
                               min_dur: int = 5) -> list[dict]:
    """Squeeze con threshold adattivo per ogni barra."""
    events = []
    in_sq = False
    sq_start = 0
    for i in range(1, len(close)):
        if np.isnan(kcr[i]) or np.isnan(adaptive_thr[i]):
            continue
        thr = adaptive_thr[i]
        is_sq = kcr[i] < thr
        if is_sq and not in_sq:
            in_sq = True
            sq_start = i
        elif not is_sq and in_sq:
            in_sq = False
            dur = i - sq_start
            if dur < min_dur:
                continue
            events.append({
                "idx": i, "dur": dur, "sq_start": sq_start,
                "kcr_at_release": kcr[i],
                "thr_used": adaptive_thr[i],
            })
    return events


class AdaptiveSqueeze(Strategy):
    name = "AD01_adaptive_squeeze"
    description = "Squeeze con threshold adattivo a regime volatilità"
    default_assets = ["BTC", "ETH"]
    default_timeframes = ["15m", "1h"]
    fee_rt = 0.002
    leverage = 3.0
    position_size = 0.15
    initial_capital = 1000.0

    def generate_signals(self, df: pd.DataFrame, ts: pd.DatetimeIndex,
                         **params) -> list[Signal]:
        c = df["close"].values
        h = df["high"].values
        l = df["low"].values
        v = df["volume"].values
        n = len(c)

        bb_w = params.get("bb_window", 14)
        low_thr = params.get("low_thr", 0.65)
        mid_thr = params.get("mid_thr", 0.80)
        high_thr = params.get("high_thr", 0.90)
        retrace_limit = params.get("retrace_limit", 0.6)
        vol_mult = params.get("vol_multiplier", 1.3)
        use_vol = params.get("use_vol", True)
        vol_window = params.get("vol_window", 100)
        regime_window = params.get("regime_window", 500)

        kcr = keltner_ratio(c, h, l, bb_w)
        adaptive_thr = _adaptive_sq_threshold(
            c, vol_window, regime_window, low_thr, mid_thr, high_thr
        )
        events = _detect_adaptive_squeezes(c, h, l, kcr, adaptive_thr)

        signals = []
        for ev in events:
            i = ev["idx"]
            if i < 1 or i >= n:
                continue

            first_ret = (c[i] - c[i - 1]) / c[i - 1] if c[i - 1] > 0 else 0
            if abs(first_ret) < 0.001:
                continue
            direction = 1 if first_ret > 0 else -1

            # Anti-fakeout
            br = h[i] - l[i]
            if br > 0:
                if direction == 1 and (h[i] - c[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
                    continue
                elif direction == -1 and (c[i] - l[i]) / br > retrace_limit:
                    continue

            # Volume confirm
            if use_vol:
                sq_start = ev["sq_start"]
                avg_sq_v = np.mean(v[sq_start:i])
                if avg_sq_v > 0 and v[i] <= avg_sq_v * vol_mult:
                    continue

            signals.append(Signal(
                idx=i,
                direction=direction,
                entry_price=c[i - 1],
                metadata={
                    "dur": ev["dur"],
                    "thr_used": ev.get("thr_used", mid_thr),
                },
            ))
        return signals


if __name__ == "__main__":
    strategy = AdaptiveSqueeze()

    configs = [
        # low_thr, mid_thr, high_thr, use_vol
        {"low_thr": 0.65, "mid_thr": 0.80, "high_thr": 0.90, "use_vol": True},
        {"low_thr": 0.65, "mid_thr": 0.80, "high_thr": 0.90, "use_vol": False},
        {"low_thr": 0.60, "mid_thr": 0.78, "high_thr": 0.92, "use_vol": True},
        {"low_thr": 0.70, "mid_thr": 0.82, "high_thr": 0.90, "use_vol": True},
        {"low_thr": 0.65, "mid_thr": 0.80, "high_thr": 0.95, "use_vol": True},
        {"low_thr": 0.65, "mid_thr": 0.80, "high_thr": 0.90,
         "use_vol": True, "vol_multiplier": 1.2},
    ]

    all_results = []
    for cfg in configs:
        for asset in ["BTC", "ETH"]:
            for tf in ["15m", "1h"]:
                for hold in [3, 6]:
                    r = strategy.backtest(asset, tf, hold=hold, **cfg)
                    if r and r.trades >= 20:
                        lbl = (f"AD01 lt={cfg['low_thr']} ht={cfg['high_thr']} "
                               f"v={cfg['use_vol']} h={hold}")
                        r.strategy_name = lbl
                        all_results.append(r)

    all_results.sort(key=lambda r: r.accuracy, reverse=True)

    print(f"\n{'=' * 130}")
    print("  AD01 ADAPTIVE SQUEEZE THRESHOLD — TOP 20")
    print(f"{'=' * 130}")
    print(f"  {'Nome':<50s} {'A/T':>7s} {'Trades':>6s} {'Acc':>6s} "
          f"{'PnL€':>10s} {'DD%':>6s} {'€/day':>7s} "
          f"{'Mkt%':>5s} {'Dur':>5s} {'Anni':>4s}")
    print(f"  {'─' * 120}")
    for r in all_results[:20]:
        r.print_summary()

    if all_results:
        all_results[0].print_yearly()

    print(f"\n  BENCHMARK SQ02: 79.7% acc, 1250t, DD 6.5%, €5.23/day, 9 anni")
    print(f"  BENCHMARK MT01: 82.7% acc, 503t, DD 5.9%")